Sorry TVR... Playoff Bracketology, 11/14

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Sorry to hijack TVR's bracketology thread, but I couldn't wait to do the math!

First, the 8 autobids. The conference leaders as of today.

A-10: New Hampshire
Big Sky: Montana
Gateway: Northern Iowa
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Nicholls State

Next, the 8 at-large bids. Since the trend from the last few years seems to be 7 of the remaining top 8 from the GPI, plus one from outside of the group, I'll list the top 8, plus 1 other that I think will be selected instead.

1. Texas State
2. Cal Poly
3. Georgia Southern
4. Massachusetts
5. Furman
6. Southern Illinois
7. Youngstown State
8. Illinois State
+1. Richmond

TVR has picked Coastal the first two weeks - I'm taking Richmond. I think they get in after finishing the year so strong.

This gives us our 16 Playoff Teams:
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Richmond
Eastern Illinois
Furman
Georgia Southern
Hampton
Youngstown State
Lehigh
Massachusetts
Montana
Northern Iowa
New Hampshire
Nicholls State
Southern Illinois
Texas State

With the playoff field set, we first get our Top 4 seeds.
1-New Hampshire (East)
2-Montana (West)
3-Appalachian State (South)
4-Hampton (Central)

Same as TVR's last week.

Next, the other 4 home teams in the 1st Round.
Georgia Southern
Texas State
Northern Iowa
Youngstown State

GSU was a no-brainer as far as their attendance goes. NIU and YSU are high-attendance venues, so they get the nod, and Texas St. seems to be the right team for out west. It's possible that UMass gets a seed over Texas St., but the GPI doesn't think so (#4 vs. #7).

Now to match up the seeds with the other home teams:
New Hampshire with Georgia Southern
Montana with Texas State
Appalachian State with Northern Iowa
Hampton with Youngstown State

Just trying to mix up the three conferences, with 2 Gateway and 2 SoCon teams.

Finally, to send the remaining teams on the road. Bascially I'm looking at regionalization. This was tough without the extra southern team (Coastal) and the extra Gateway team (Northern Iowa).

Cal Poly at Texas State
Eastern Illinois at Northern Iowa
UMass at Appalachian State
Furman at Hampton
Lehigh at New Hampshire
Richmond at Youngstown State
Nicholls State at Montana
Southern Illinois at Georgia Southern

Without Coastal, Lehigh was the only "regional" option for UNH, opening Richmond to go to Y'town.

So here's this week's bracket:
#1-New Hampshire
Lehigh

Georgia Southern
Southern Illinois

#4-Hampton
Furman

Youngstown State
Richmond

#2-Montana
Nicholls State

Texas State
Cal Poly

#3-Appalachian State
UMass

Eastern Illinois
Northern Iowa

This is a pretty strong bracket. IMO, UMass and Furman get fairly shafted, but in my opinion this is a really strong bracket anyway with no dominating team.

Questions/Comments?

[Retro]

I doubt Illinois State gets in with 4 losses and their strongest OOC quality win againest an OVC team.

[*****]

I doubt Illinois State gets in with 4 losses and their strongest OOC quality win againest an OVC team.You mean the 27-6 win against the top team in the OVC? I think LFN said Richmond would get in instead of ILS.

[skinny_uncle]

I doubt Illinois State gets in with 4 losses and their strongest OOC quality win againest an OVC team.
OVC team=OVC champ and probably a playoff team. Eastern Illinois lost only to Illinois State and Brigham Young. Illinois State's only OOC loss was to Iowa State (32-21). I think they have a case.

[TheValleyRaider]

I've started a trend!! :hurray: :hurray: :hurray: :hurray: :hurray:

Nice job LFN on putting it together. I probably would have picked Richmond this week too, although it'd be tough not to include Coastal. UMass really does get shafted in this one, getting sent to App, but there really isn't any other place to send them. You gotta be in it to win it, I guess.

[PantherMan]

I doubt Illinois State gets in with 4 losses and their strongest OOC quality win againest an OVC team.

They didn't get in on his bracket. They were the minus 1, that based on GPI should have gotten an invite but didn't.

[blur2005]

Somehow I don't see Furman playing Hampton in the FIRST round.

Instead, I see Furman playing at Youngstown State instead of at Hampton and Richmond at Hampton instead of at Youngstown State. I think the in-state battle would attract attention like last year's W&M-Hampton matchup. Plus, Furman-Youngstown would be a compelling matchup, too. Those two matchups have more to offer and more attractiveness than the two LFN suggested.

[bluehenbillk]

Here's how I see it:

Lehigh @ #1 UNH
YSU @ GSU

Richmond @ #4 Hampton
CCU or SIU (if they beat NDSU) @ Furman

OVC winner @ #2 Montana
CalPoly @ Nicholls St

Texas St @ #3 Appalachian St
UMass @ N Iowa

[bcrawf]

I have a hunch that it is a done deal that YSU heads to New Hampshire. The Gateway, the best conference in the nation, always gets screwed by the East Coast/Montana bias.

Hell, we were Gateway champs in 2001 and had to go to freakin Charleston, Illinois to play an OVC team. What a joke!!! :bang:

[Proud Griz Man]

I have a hunch that it is a done deal that YSU heads to New Hampshire. The Gateway, the best conference in the nation, always gets screwed by the East Coast/Montana bias.

Hell, we were Gateway champs in 2001 and had to go to freakin Charleston, Illinois to play an OVC team. What a joke!!! :bang:

I don't understand your East Coast/Montana bias comment?
Who got the Gateway auto bid in 2004? 1st round home game?

[bcrawf]

It just seems to me that the committee does everything in its power to get as many home games as possible on the east coat and it always seems that they have teams travelling across the country to get there.

Montana has great tradition and has been truly outstanding for a number of years and with that comes some distinct advantages. I am almost to the point where I feel that they could go 6-5 win the autobid and still get a seed. I may be wrong but I can't think of one signature Monatana win outside of the Battery Throwing Palace that is Wash Griz.

I have a gut feeling that we may not get a home game when our three losses were Iowa and two without the amazing playmaker that is Eric Sanders. I guess I am frustrated with past history that says "We have to get UNI out of that dome" as if it is an unfair advantage somehow.

[grizmt]

Well atleast it(seeding) can't be blamed on uncle wayne anymore. It much be the teams accomplishments that get it done.

[TypicalTribe]

It just seems to me that the committee does everything in its power to get as many home games as possible on the east coat and it always seems that they have teams travelling across the country to get there.

Montana has great tradition and has been truly outstanding for a number of years and with that comes some distinct advantages. I am almost to the point where I feel that they could go 6-5 win the autobid and still get a seed. I may be wrong but I can't think of one signature Monatana win outside of the Battery Throwing Palace that is Wash Griz.

I have a gut feeling that we may not get a home game when our three losses were Iowa and two without the amazing playmaker that is Eric Sanders. I guess I am frustrated with past history that says "We have to get UNI out of that dome" as if it is an unfair advantage somehow.

I think UNI should get a 1st round home game, but it will all depend on the bid that they put in. Need to outbid the Penguins, that's for sure.

[HensRock]

If Montana State beats Montana, that really throws a wrench into the works. Then EWU will be the BSC automatic bid. Nicholls could also lose to McNeese and then only 1 Southland team is in.

I think you have to take those into account:
Case A: Nicholls and Montana win - see above.
Case B: Nicholls and Montana State win - In this case, I think Lehigh is the best choice for a seed (if they beat Lafayette)

#1 UNH
Eastern Ill.

Youngstown St.
Cal Poly

UNI
Eastern Wash.

#4 Lehigh
Furman

#3 Hampton
Richmond

Montana
Texas St.

GSU
UMass

#2 App St.
Nicholls St.

[GaSouthern]

Everyone has us playing lots of different teams, I think we should play SC State or Coastal suggesting one of them makes the playoffs.

[bluehenbillk]

HensRock?? Lehigh seeded???

[ngineer]

It wouldn't be THAT shocking IF we have a convincing win over a very good Lafayette team. However, I concede the chances are not very good IMO. I would very much like to think we get a home game in round one--I was hoping Richmond in a reprise of the great 1998 game..

[ChickenMan]

HensRock?? Lehigh seeded???

no one who LOST to UD should be seeded... :D

[HensRock]

If Montana State beats Montana, who would be your seeds?

[bluehenbillk]

I'd seed the following teams ahead of LU:

UNH & UMass
Furman & Appy St
UNI
Hampton
Texas St & Nicholls St

After seeing LU play this year & knowing Borda is out, I'll be shocked if they're not one & done.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

no one who LOST to UD should be seeded... :D

What about a team who beat UD but lost to Colgate? :eek: :D

[bluehenbillk]

LFN, be careful of what you wish for, that matchup could be an ugly one.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I'd seed the following teams ahead of LU:

UNH & UMass
Furman & Appy St
UNI
Hampton
Texas St & Nicholls St

After seeing LU play this year & knowing Borda is out, I'll be shocked if they're not one & done.

First of all, thanks for the bulletin-board quote for the playoffs.

Second of all, nobody's saying that Lehigh should be seeded above UNH, App St. or even Hampton. It's all the other teams that you mention.

* Furman (having one impressive win all year and losing to Western Carolina) is not head and shoulders above Lehigh.

* 3 loss teams should NOT be seeded unless they played 2 I-As like App St. That immediately gets rid of Nicholls St. (who have to win to get in - if they didn't beat Texas St., we wouldn't even be talking about them as an at-large), UMass (losses to Colgate, UNH and I-A Army) and UNI (who, if they win Saturday, would barely be at 7 D-I wins, and if they didn't get an autobid would not be in the at-large discussion either).

Of these teams, Nicholls St., Texas St and UMass HAVE to win just to get in.

[Saint3333]

Unless Furman loses to UTC, why do some people on here have them traveling in the first round?

My home playoff teams are

NH
Montana
Hampton
ASU
Furman
GSU
UNI
Texas St.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Unless Furman loses to UTC, why do some people on here have them traveling in the first round?

My home playoff teams are

NH
Montana
Hampton
ASU
Furman
GSU
UNI
Texas St.

The reason is it seems unlikely that the playoff committee will have 3 home games in the Socon. Not out of the question, but IMO unlikely since last year the 3rd and 4th placed A-10 teams (JMU & UNH) were sent on the road.

In my original bracketing, I made a good effort to split conferences and teams from meeting in the 1st and 2nd rounds, while still balancing out home games.

[Saint3333]

I'm not sure the committee looks at conferences when they decide who gets home playoffs games, they might.

What I do know they look at is the strength of the team (all 3 are in the top 8 are few would argue their seasons haven't warranted a home game), the teams that bid on the home games (all 3 have from what I've read), and butts in the seats (ASU #2, GSU #6, and FU #18 in avg. attendance). Only Montana #1, YSU #9 , JSU #16 (if they get in) of the likely playoff teams have a higher avg. attendance than Furman.

If Furman and ASU win this Saturday all three get home games, $ talks.

["Ho" Dweller]

After seeing LU play this year & knowing Borda is out, I'll be shocked if they're not one & done.

If Threatt can handle the pressure (only a sophomore), I think this team may be better off with him at QB. He brings an added dimension to the offense that Borda couldn't. Threatt can pull it down and rip off a 20+ yard run with ease. He has a stronger arm than Mark (accuracy needs a little work though) and has guided the offense to an average of 45 points per game with him as the starter. It was a shame when Mark was lost for the season...you always hate to see a senior end his career on the sideline. But the offense really hasn't missed a beat with Threatt at the helm.

If Lehigh gets into the playoffs and you can catch the game on TV...check it out. I think (hope!) you will be surprised.

[colgate13]

I'll concur. Threatt was much more impressive against Colgate in 2005 than Borda was in 2004 or in the UD game I saw online in 2005. He's a superstar in the making.