Coastal, SC St. or Cal Poly for last bid?

[GSU Eagle]

If all the teams who are playing to get in win on Saturday you have:
3 SoCon (Appalachian, GSU, Furman)
3 Gateway (UNI, YSU and SIU)
3 A-10 (UNH, Richmond, and Massachusetts)
2 Southland (Nicholls St and Texas St)
1 Patriot (Lehigh)
1 MEAC (Hampton)
1 Big Sky (Montana)
1 OVC (Eastern Illinois)

There are 15 teams, leaving 1 spot. Who gets it from Coastal, Cal Poly or S.C. St.?

I would say Cal Poly gets it. Coastal would be #2 and S.C. St #3 in my opinion.

Others?

[Hansel]

If all the teams who are playing to get in win on Saturday you have:
3 SoCon (Appalachian, GSU, Furman)
3 Gateway (UNI, YSU and SIU)
3 A-10 (UNH, Richmond, and Massachusetts)
2 Southland (Nicholls St and Texas St)
1 Patriot (Lehigh)
1 MEAC (Hampton)
1 Big Sky (Montana)
1 OVC (Eastern Illinois)

There are 15 teams, leaving 1 spot. Who gets it from Coastal, Cal Poly or S.C. St.?

I would say Cal Poly gets it. Coastal would be #2 and S.C. St #3 in my opinion.

Others?
Is YSU automatic? They are ranked behind Coastal and Cal-Poly in both the polls and way behind Poly in the computers.

[GSU Eagle]

No UNI is the Gateway automatic. If SIU wins this weekend they tie YSU for 2nd in the Gateway. I don't see how SIU could be taken and YSU left out. I believe YSU is in at 8-3 as their season is over.

We will find out on Sunday how much the committee looks at the polls which have Coastal pretty high. Closer scrutiny of Coastal's victories make them look less than a 10-1 team however.

[Hansel]

No UNI is the Gateway automatic. If SIU wins this weekend they tie YSU for 2nd in the Gateway. I don't see how SIU could be taken and YSU left out. I believe YSU is in at 8-3 as their season is over.

We will find out on Sunday how much the committee looks at the polls which have Coastal pretty high. Closer scrutiny of Coastal's victories make them look less than a 10-1 team however.
I knew YSU wasn't the autobid, I am just wondering if YSU is a lock for the playoffs. We shall see :)

[GeauxLions94]

If all the teams who are playing to get in win on Saturday you have:
3 SoCon (Appalachian, GSU, Furman)
3 Gateway (UNI, YSU and SIU)
3 A-10 (UNH, Richmond, and Massachusetts)
2 Southland (Nicholls St and Texas St)
1 Patriot (Lehigh)
1 MEAC (Hampton)
1 Big Sky (Montana)
1 OVC (Eastern Illinois)

There are 15 teams, leaving 1 spot. Who gets it from Coastal, Cal Poly or S.C. St.?

I would say Cal Poly gets it. Coastal would be #2 and S.C. St #3 in my opinion.

Others?

If it's the three teams you mention, then it's CP, CCU, SCSU though they could all be scrapped by another Big Sky team (EWU or Monty State).

[SoCon48]

If all the teams who are playing to get in win on Saturday you have:
3 SoCon (Appalachian, GSU, Furman)
3 Gateway (UNI, YSU and SIU)
3 A-10 (UNH, Richmond, and Massachusetts)
2 Southland (Nicholls St and Texas St)
1 Patriot (Lehigh)
1 MEAC (Hampton)
1 Big Sky (Montana)
1 OVC (Eastern Illinois)

You're pretty confident the SoCon will get 3 in this year, even though we just had 2 last year and 1 the previous???
Back to our old norm?

[GeauxLions94]

You're pretty confident the SoCon will get 3 in this year, even though we just had 2 last year and 1 the previous???
Back to our old norm?

AppState, GSU and Furman should all get in this year. If not, there's a serious problem. I still think another Big Sky team will make it over CP, Coastal and SCSU. Only way one of them gets in is if McNeese State beats Nicholls State or Sam Houston State beats Texas State leaving the Southland with one. :bang:

[ThreadStopper]

If it's the three teams you mention, then it's CP, CCU, SCSU though they could all be scrapped by another Big Sky team (EWU or Monty State).


Cal Poy beat both of these teams head to head. :)

[ISUMatt]

IF SIU loses to NDSU, they are done!!

[Mr. C]

Let's clear up some misconceptions. UNI has won the auto bid in the Gateway, but shares the title with Youngstown State and Southern Illinois. I doubt that the committee will keep a co-champion of a major conference out of the playoffs unless SIU loses at home on Saturday to a very tough North Dakota State team. That would leave the Salukis with less than seven D-I wins and out of the playoffs.

When Furman and Georgia Southern have been playoff-eligible, they have been selected for the field. The SoCon will have three teams ranked in the top 10, if Furman wins on Saturday at Chattanooga. The Paladins might put themselves on the bubble with a loss to an improved UTC squad, but they still probably get in (though two losses in the last three games would raise questions with some committee members). I think the Furman-UTC game will be high scoring, but I think the Paladins will prevail.

The Big Sky will only receive multiple bids if Montana State beats Montana to give Eastern Washington the auto bid. There are too many teams with three or less losses to take a 7-4 MSU, or EWU squad. If Montana beats MSU and UC Davis topples EWU, you would have MSU and EWU with 6-5 records.

Cal Poly would be 4-1 against Big Sky opponents and 8-3 overall with a win on Saturday over Idaho State at home (highly likely). The only loss was a game the Mustangs almost won at Montana. The Mustangs have played one of the best schedules in I-AA and have the precident that the team that gets snubbed one year usually is rewarded with a bid the next year. If everyone wins, I believe Cal Poly is the last team in.

Coastal Carolina must beat Charleston Southern to finish 10-1 and then probably needs one or more teams from among Richmond, UMass, SIU, Nicholls State, or Texas State to lose to get in. A committee member told me CCU will be on the board, but that leads me to believe that the Chanticleers are a bubble team. The committee apparently has downplayed CCU'S win over James Madison, because of the mediocre play of the Dukes this year.

Mass chaos would have to ensue for South Carolina State to have any chance of getting in. The Bulldogs are 9-2 with a win over NCAT, but are hurt by the fact they have no signature wins. Two close losses to Hampton and CCU won't get them in and the win over Alabama State has lost its luster with the Hornets' fade down the stretch.

Don't forget also that the Patriot League auto bid would go to Colgate, not Lehigh, if Lafayette beats Lehigh and Colgate wins at Georgetown. Lehigh would at least be considered for an at-large spot, but probably would not get one two years in a row.

Also, don't put too much faith into the polls. The polls might help Hampton gain an underserved seed (despite a very weak schedule), but they probably won't get CCU, or SCSU into the field.

[SoCon48]

AppState, GSU and Furman should all get in this year. If not, there's a serious problem. I still think another Big Sky team will make it over CP, Coastal and SCSU. Only way one of them gets in is if McNeese State beats Nicholls State or Sam Houston State beats Texas State leaving the Southland with one. :bang:

Gonna be like the year Wofford thought they should have made it and didn't.

[Mr. C]

Gonna be like the year Wofford thought they should have made it and didn't.
Furman and Georgia Southern have a little more clout than Wofford. Also, the committee won't pass up a chance to have a first-round home game at Georgia Southern and possibly Furman too.

[Poly Pigskin]

I don't understand, a few weeks ago everyone says that if Poly wins out then they have to be in. Well we're 1 game away from pulling that off and now there is this doubt about whether we get in or not. That's ok, I have confidence that fellow GWFC member NDSU will take care of business for us and make this whole discussion moot. Go Bison!

[ngineer]

Cal Poy beat both of these teams head to head. :)

I agree. For EWU or MSU to get selected over Cal Poly would be a travesty (assuming CP takes care of business this week)

[Mr. C]

Eastern Washington won't get in with an at-large bid ahead of Cal Poly. Cal Poly beat EWU head-to-head and would have an 8-3 record, while the best EWU can do is 7-4 (with a D-II win and only six D-I victories). The only way EWU gets in is with the Big Sky auto bid.

[bcrawf]

It is so great to have that autobid locked up here in Cedar Falls and after we beat the best 3-7 team in the country (NAU has had some tough losses) we can get ready to host one if not two.

And GO MONTANA STATE it would be incredible to get Montana in the Dome at some point!!!!!

[ThreadStopper]

I don't understand, a few weeks ago everyone says that if Poly wins out then they have to be in. Well we're 1 game away from pulling that off and now there is this doubt about whether we get in or not. That's ok, I have confidence that fellow GWFC member NDSU will take care of business for us and make this whole discussion moot. Go Bison!

"The Gridiron Power Index (GPI), the BCS-style ranking for I-AA and top indicator of at-large playoff selection"

Poly better hope the GPI is in fact what it is intended to be. At #5 this week and the highest rated team from a non-auto conference, a win on Saturday should be all it will take!

[JALMOND]

If all the teams who are playing to get in win on Saturday you have:
3 SoCon (Appalachian, GSU, Furman)
3 Gateway (UNI, YSU and SIU)
3 A-10 (UNH, Richmond, and Massachusetts)
2 Southland (Nicholls St and Texas St)
1 Patriot (Lehigh)
1 MEAC (Hampton)
1 Big Sky (Montana)
1 OVC (Eastern Illinois)

There are 15 teams, leaving 1 spot. Who gets it from Coastal, Cal Poly or S.C. St.?

I would say Cal Poly gets it. Coastal would be #2 and S.C. St #3 in my opinion.

Others?

Assuming a lot on the idea that the strongest conference (Big Sky) only gets one team in. Though, if Cal Poly does win this weekend, they would have gone 4-1 against the Big Sky with the only loss to Montana there. Pretty respectable even for Big Sky conference members.

[*****]

Let's clear up some misconceptions. ... There are too many teams with three or less losses to take a 7-4 MSU, or EWU squad...SoS my good man. If MSU beats UM they get their 7th D-I win and EWU gets the BSC autobid. Both go home otherwise.

[Mr. C]

You are expecting a lot for the committee to put a four-loss team in. You really don't expect the committee to put up with the criticism that would cause? If everyone with a bid on the line wins, Cal Poly holds an edge over both EWU and MSU. The only way EWU gets in is with a Montana State win. I would be shocked to see the Bobcats in the field either way.

[SoCon48]

SoS my good man. If MSU beats UM they get their 7th D-I win and EWU gets the BSC autobid. Both go home otherwise.

SOS? Tell that to the posters I have been arguing with all season.

[MR. CHICKEN]

DON'T BE TO QUICK TA JUDGE DUH A-10.............UMA$$....WHIFF UH LOSS TA HOFSTRA (ENTIRELY POSSIBLE..WIN ONE FO' DUH GARDI)....OR...UH BILL & MARE...TRIUMPH OVERAH....DUH SPIDAHS......TWO MO' 7-4's!....THREE IFIN' DUH PRIDE STILL HAS PRIDE!.............:rolleyes:...........BRAWK!

IFIN' SOME O' DESE SCENARIOS....HAPPEN.......CAL PIE.......SAND CHICKENS...MAYBEAH.....EVEN TWO PAT LEAGUES TEAMS GO....IFIN' COLGATE WINS!..........TOO MANY MAYBEAHS....:rotateh:...AWK!

[Punchykky]

DON'T BE TO QUICK TA JUDGE DUH A-10.............UMA$$....WHIFF UH LOSS TA HOFSTRA (ENTIRELY POSSIBLE..WIN ONE FO' DUH GARDI)....OR...UH BILL & MARE...TRIUMPH OVERAH....DUH SPIDAHS......TWO MO' 7-4's!....THREE IFIN' DUH PRIDE STILL HAS PRIDE!.............:rolleyes:...........BRAWK!

IFIN' SOME O' DESE SCENARIOS....HAPPEN.......CAL PIE.......SAND CHICKENS...MAYBEAH.....EVEN TWO PAT LEAGUES TEAMS GO....IFIN' COLGATE WINS!..........TOO MANY MAYBEAHS....:rotateh:...AWK!

Foghorn Leghorn, right?
:lmao:

[MR. CHICKEN]

NAW.......MR. CHICKEN!.....:p....BUK...BUK...BUK...BRRAAAWWWWKKK KK!

[barechestcat]

Let's clear up some misconceptions. UNI has won the auto bid in the Gateway, but shares the title with Youngstown State and Southern Illinois. I doubt that the committee will keep a co-champion of a major conference out of the playoffs unless SIU loses at home on Saturday to a very tough North Dakota State team. That would leave the Salukis with less than seven D-I wins and out of the playoffs.

When Furman and Georgia Southern have been playoff-eligible, they have been selected for the field. The SoCon will have three teams ranked in the top 10, if Furman wins on Saturday at Chattanooga. The Paladins might put themselves on the bubble with a loss to an improved UTC squad, but they still probably get in (though two losses in the last three games would raise questions with some committee members). I think the Furman-UTC game will be high scoring, but I think the Paladins will prevail.

The Big Sky will only receive multiple bids if Montana State beats Montana to give Eastern Washington the auto bid. There are too many teams with three or less losses to take a 7-4 MSU, or EWU squad. If Montana beats MSU and UC Davis topples EWU, you would have MSU and EWU with 6-5 records.

Cal Poly would be 4-1 against Big Sky opponents and 8-3 overall with a win on Saturday over Idaho State at home (highly likely). The only loss was a game the Mustangs almost won at Montana. The Mustangs have played one of the best schedules in I-AA and have the precident that the team that gets snubbed one year usually is rewarded with a bid the next year. If everyone wins, I believe Cal Poly is the last team in.

Coastal Carolina must beat Charleston Southern to finish 10-1 and then probably needs one or more teams from among Richmond, UMass, SIU, Nicholls State, or Texas State to lose to get in. A committee member told me CCU will be on the board, but that leads me to believe that the Chanticleers are a bubble team. The committee apparently has downplayed CCU'S win over James Madison, because of the mediocre play of the Dukes this year.

Mass chaos would have to ensue for South Carolina State to have any chance of getting in. The Bulldogs are 9-2 with a win over NCAT, but are hurt by the fact they have no signature wins. Two close losses to Hampton and CCU won't get them in and the win over Alabama State has lost its luster with the Hornets' fade down the stretch.

Don't forget also that the Patriot League auto bid would go to Colgate, not Lehigh, if Lafayette beats Lehigh and Colgate wins at Georgetown. Lehigh would at least be considered for an at-large spot, but probably would not get one two years in a row.

Also, don't put too much faith into the polls. The polls might help Hampton gain an underserved seed (despite a very weak schedule), but they probably won't get CCU, or SCSU into the field.

You do realize that if Montana State beats the Griz this Saturday, we share the BSC title with EWU and UM and would have tie breakers over UM. So, if that's the case, and we're the toughest rated conference in the nation, how does all three not go (EWU wins autobid in this scenario)?

[Stang Fever]

SoS my good man. If MSU beats UM they get their 7th D-I win and EWU gets the BSC autobid. Both go home otherwise.


Its about time someone comes in here and makes some sense out of all of this.........THERE IS NO WAY....and I SAY NO WAY the big sky is a three team bid confrence this year.......AT BEST ITS 2 with EWU and Montana

Poly is in with a win on saturday no doubt about it.....Beat up on EWU at home (until they put on one hell of a comeback)........Beat up on MSU....and played Montana down to the wire until that corner made one hell of a play...SO for the commit to over look that....they would never have ay respect again and would al need to be taken outside and shot...


LETS JUST face it Eastern Washington is a bad team...........YES they have all the offense a team could ever want......but there is more to this game then offense...there is this thing called defense which is something they dont have.....and special teams...and i think thats were everyone forgets about Eastern and when they do there ranks...they think to themselves that most teams cant keep up witht hem in scoring...but look at POLY a few weeks ago.

[GaSouthern]

I just wanna watch coastal get it handed to them from GSU or Furman at home, they just cant hang with the big three.

[barechestcat]

For the record, I definitely think Cal Poly deserves to be in the field. My analysis of playoff possibilities goes something like this; it does require a loss by Nicholls/Texas State and Southern Illinois:

This is what I can figure from evaluating records, games remaining, possible outcomes:

Teams that are likely in either by record or autobid already won:


Northern Iowa (Gateway Conference) won autobid
New Hampshire (A-10) 9-1 (vs Maine 5-5)
Montana (BSC) 8-2 (at Montana State 6-4)
Appalachian State (Southern Conference) 7-3 (at Elon 3-7)
Furman (Southern) 8-2 (at Chattanooga 6-4)
GA Southern (Southern) 8-3
E Illinois (Ohio Valley), 8-2 (at Jacksonville State 6-4)
Hampton (MEAC), 10-0 won autobid
Lehigh (Patriot League) 8-2 (vs Lafayette 7-3)
Texas State (Southland) 8-2 (vs Sam Houston State 3-6)
Eastern Washington (BSC) 6-5 autobid winner


Teams that are on the bubble: Some game predictions included:

Team current record opponent result GPI as of 11/7
McNeese 5-3 Nichols State lose out at 5-4
W Kent 6-4 Florida Intl. win #16
S IL 7-3 NSU lose #7
MASS 7-3 Hofstra win #4
Richmond 7-3 Will & Mary lose #17
MSU 6-4 U of M win #9
Nichols ST 5-3 McNeese win #19
Cal Poly 7-3 ID State win #6
Coast Car. 9-1 Char. South. win #20
Youngstwon 8-3 idle #22
IL St 7-4 idle #14


Who goes? I say:
Coastal Carolina, weak schedule, but at 10-1 they are probably in
UMASS 8-3
Cal Poly 8-3
Youngstown 8-3
between South IL, MSU, IL State, Nicholls State for the last slot. I'm going to take MSU. Here's my reasoning. Nicholls State won't have 7 wins (I know it's because of hurricanes but that's my rationale), IL State and South IL play in conferences less rated then the Big Sky. So, it's more justified that the BSC get a 7-4 team ahead of another.

[slostang]

It will probably be Coastal. My heart is with SCSU, but I don't think that will happen. Cal Poly- not a good enough story. Coastal definitely.

Shellshock,

I have no idea what you mean by, Cal Poly - not a good enough story. One story would be that we lost our QB in the Montana game and it looked like our season was over. Enter in Rfr QB Matt Brennan. After a rough first game loss to UC Davis he bounced back with a good game and win over a ranked Eestern Washington team and was Great West Football Conference offensive player of the week in only his third start in a win against Southern Utah. We also have a Rfr RB, James Noble, who has rushed for over 1,000 yards in just eight games. Our defense is led by Chis Gocong, second in the Buchanan voting last year, who has 16.5 sacks this year. Lastly, a very good Cal Poly team was left out of the playoffs last year with a 9-2 record. I could keep going, but hopefully you can see a couple of good stories.

As for Cal Poly vs Coastal and South Carollina State, Cal Poly played a lot tougher schedule. That is reflected in the GPI where Poly is ranked #5, Coastal is ranked #22 and SCS is ranked #26. Enough said.

IMO Cal Poly should be a lock if they take care of business and win Saturday against a dangerous Idaho State team. Hopefully the selection com. will see it that way to.

[CKelly]

The committee can't possibly keep the Mustangs out again can they? No way. Cal Poly win and they are in. Tougher schedule, better wins, more deserving, period.

[JALMOND]

Shellshock,

I have no idea what you mean by, Cal Poly - not a good enough story. One story would be that we lost our QB in the Montana game and it looked like our season was over. Enter in Rfr QB Matt Brennan. After a rough first game loss to UC Davis he bounced back with a good game and win over a ranked Eestern Washington team and was Great West Football Conference offensive player of the week in only his third start in a win against Southern Utah. We also have a Rfr RB, James Noble, who has rushed for over 1,000 yards in just eight games. Our defense is led by Chis Gocong, second in the Buchanan voting last year, who has 16.5 sacks this year. Lastly, a very good Cal Poly team was left out of the playoffs last year with a 9-2 record. I could keep going, but hopefully you can see a couple of good stories.

As for Cal Poly vs Coastal and South Carollina State, Cal Poly played a lot tougher schedule. That is reflected in the GPI where Poly is ranked #5, Coastal is ranked #22 and SCS is ranked #26. Enough said.

IMO Cal Poly should be a lock if they take care of business and win Saturday against a dangerous Idaho State team. Hopefully the selection com. will see it that way to.

Some facts in the Cal Poly situation...(and I'm going outside the Great West conference)

1. The Big Sky has been one of the strongest conferences all year in I-AA (consistantly first or second in terms of strength)

2. Griz win, looks like only one team will meet the seven DI wins in the Big Sky. (Case closed? Not quite)

3. Cal Poly wins Saturday against Idaho State would have gone 4-1 against the Big Sky.

4. The only Big Sky members Cal Poly did not play this year were N Arizona, Weber and Portland State.

5. Being that Cal Poly only played Montana on the road, chances are that, if Cal Poly would have played a full Big Sky schedule, those three would have been on the road as well.

6. My assumption...Cal Poly at N Arizona (Mustang win easily), Cal Poly at Weber (tougher win but still a win), Cal Poly at Portland State (game could go either way)

7. Based on that, worse case scenario would have Cal Poly tied with Montana at 6-2 for the title. Montana would get to count the Mustang game as a conference win, thus winning the title. Cal Poly would also go as the second Big Sky team no question.

[putter]

It will probably be Coastal. My heart is with SCSU, but I don't think that will happen. Cal Poly- not a good enough story. Coastal definitely.

It may not be a good enough story for you, but, if they beat Idaho St. they are in and Coastal will be watching, if it comes down to those two.

[New CCU Fan]

I would have to spend a considerable amt of time that I don't have right now to figure out who the locks are, etc. but here's yet another comparison that really throws all caution to the wind. I took the following data and created a ranking based on all the data. Certainly not scientific haha...but an interesting look. This includes all teams thru #31 in GPI.

"GPI" - straight from this week's list
"AVG Poll" - AGS, ESPN/USA and Sports Network polls and consolidated them.
"Rank AVG" - created a ranking based on the average of GPI and Polls

Tear it up guys...but it does give us a perspective on how the GPI and polls could stack up and average out if if you use both with an equal measure.

Rank AVG, Poll AVG,GPI Rank,Team,Conf,W,L

1T 1 2 New Hampshire A10 9 1
1T 2T 1 Montana Big Sky 8 2
2 6 7T Massachusetts A10 7 3
3 4 3 Appalachian St Southern 7 3
4 8 7T N Iowa Gateway 7 3
5 5 4 Texas St Southland 8 2
6 3 9 Furman Southern 8 2
7T 7 6 Ga Southern Southern 8 3
7T 2T 11 Hampton MEAC 10 0
8 12 5 Cal Poly Great West 7 3
9 10 12 S Illinois Gateway 7 3
10 13 13 Youngstown St Gateway 8 3
11 18 10 N Dakota St Great West 7 3
12 16 14 E Washington Big Sky 6 4
13T 9 22 Coastal Car Big South 9 1
13T 14 17 Richmond A10 7 3
14 17 16 Brown Ivy 8 1
15 11 23 Lehigh Patriot 8 2
16 - 18 Portland St Big Sky 6 5
17 23 15 Illinois St Gateway 7 4
18 20 19 Montana St Big Sky 6 4
19 - 20 UC Davis Great West 5 4
20 15 26 S Carolina St MEAC 8 2
21 22 21 Nicholls St Southland 5 3
22 14 31 Grambling SWAC 8 1
23 21 25 W Kentucky Gateway 6 4
24 19 27 E Illinois OVC 8 2
25 - 24 James Madison A10 6 4
26 - 28 Hofstra A10 6 4
27 - 29 Weber St Big Sky 5 5
28 - 30 McNeese St Southland 5 3


Is this even logical to try to approach it using polls and GPI together? I guess on one hand it seems like GPI "should" be an indicator only as it relates to what someone "should" do. Whether or not they have gotten it done on the field is entirely a different story.

Ralph (or anyone else) I would also like to understand how the over-ranked and under-ranked calcs are done?

Thanks

[HensRock]

Who goes? I say:
Coastal Carolina, weak schedule, but at 10-1 they are probably in
UMASS 8-3
Cal Poly 8-3
Youngstown 8-3
between South IL, MSU, IL State, Nicholls State for the last slot. I'm going to take MSU. Here's my reasoning. Nicholls State won't have 7 wins (I know it's because of hurricanes but that's my rationale), IL State and South IL play in conferences less rated then the Big Sky. So, it's more justified that the BSC get a 7-4 team ahead of another.

I say: Richmond goes ahead of YSU. And they BOTH go ahead of MSU.
If MSU beats Montana and Richmond beats W&M, here are your standings:

There are just too many teams that will go ahead of MSU in my opinion. I doubt we'll see any 7-4 at-large teams.

1. Furman (9-2) or 8-3 if they lose
2. Georgia Southern (8-3)
3. UMass (8-3)
4. Richmond (8-3)
5. Cal Poly (8-3)
6. Coastal Carolina (9-1)
7. Montana (7-3)
8. Youngstown (7-3)


So. Carolina State (8-2)
Colgate (8-3)
Texas St. (6-3) if they lose (if Nicholls loses they are SL auto bid, right?)
ILL St. (7-4)
MSU (7-4)
So. ILL (7-4)
Nicholls St. (4-4) if they lose

[Hansel]

I would have to spend a considerable amt of time that I don't have right now to figure out who the locks are, etc. but here's yet another comparison that really throws all caution to the wind. I took the following data and created a ranking based on all the data. Certainly not scientific haha...but an interesting look. This includes all teams thru #31 in GPI.

"GPI" - straight from this week's list
"AVG Poll" - AGS, ESPN/USA and Sports Network polls and consolidated them.
"Rank AVG" - created a ranking based on the average of GPI and Polls

Tear it up guys...but it does give us a perspective on how the GPI and polls could stack up and average out if if you use both with an equal measure.



The GPI already includes the poll as a component, therefore to average the GPI and polls you are adding more strength to the polls which is not statistically valid.

[New CCU Fan]

The GPI already includes the poll as a component, therefore to average the GPI and polls you are adding more strength to the polls which is not statistically valid.


Told ya I was new to all this!! Guess I should go back and just delete my post. Thanks Hansel.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I think SIU misses and Coastal Carolina and Cal Poly both are in. SCSt. - no way.

That's all, but no one knows who will really be selected.

[GeauxLions94]

Cal Poy beat both of these teams head to head. :)

Oops, my bad :doh: :spank: Blame it on Gulf Coast bias :D Of the three schools (Cal Poly, CCU, SCSU), CP would be my No. 1 choice :nod:

[The Gadfly]

I just wanna watch coastal get it handed to them from GSU or Furman at home, they just cant hang with the big three.

Did someone say we could? And why the hate for Coastal? I know for a fact we can't "hang" with 1 of the "Big" 3 :bang: . However, I would love to see the Thundering Beach Chickens play in Statesboro for the playoffs. If not we'll see y'all next season. :nod:

[The Gadfly]

Coastal Carolina must beat Charleston Southern to finish 10-1 and then probably needs one or more teams from among Richmond, UMass, SIU, Nicholls State, or Texas State to lose to get in. A committee member told me CCU will be on the board, but that leads me to believe that the Chanticleers are a bubble team. The committee apparently has downplayed CCU'S win over James Madison, because of the mediocre play of the Dukes this year.

I couldn't agree with you more Mr.C. We have to get through this Chuck South team before considering the playoffs. I would hate to tell my fellow Green Poultry, "I told you so," come this Saturday. :( Even if we do beat the Bucs we could still be on that bubble. :bang:

[windwalker]

We will find out on Sunday how much the committee looks at the polls which have Coastal pretty high. Closer scrutiny of Coastal's victories make them look less than a 10-1 team however.

Of course the only loss we have... beat you also... hmmmmmmm

[Aggie71]

Looks like the Ags are going to have a say - so in this. Quoting CK, "It depends on which Aggie team shows up".

Will it be the Stanford, NDSU, Poly team or the other one?

Reminds me of when the Cards beat the Dodgers in '62 (Oliver?) and forced the play - offs between the Dreaded Angelinos and my Giants.

Mays owned Kolfax, McCovey owned Drysdale.

Oooops, brain fade, back to the Alzheimers Institute.

Go Ags, Go Poly

[rokamortis]

If all 3 teams win then Cal Poly would get in before CCU - but I hope we both can get in :D

I hope SCSU gets in as well although they should be the third choice.

[rokamortis]

I couldn't agree with you more Mr.C. We have to get through this Chuck South team before considering the playoffs. I would hate to tell my fellow Green Poultry, "I told you so," come this Saturday. :( Even if we do beat the Bucs we could still be on that bubble. :bang:

Unfortunately we are still on the bubble - but I hope we can get in. Plus I agree with you about CSU - I don't know many people who think we'll have an easy time on Saturday since the game means so much for both teams now.

[GaSouthern]

Did someone say we could? And why the hate for Coastal? I know for a fact we can't "hang" with 1 of the "Big" 3 :bang: . However, I would love to see the Thundering Beach Chickens play in Statesboro for the playoffs. If not we'll see y'all next season. :nod:

I hate all the trash talked towards App State from most of your fans, although I hope we drop Elon for CCU in the next three years!!!! oh please oh please!

[rokamortis]

I hate all the trash talked towards App State from most of your fans, although I hope we drop Elon for CCU in the next three years!!!! oh please oh please!

How much trash talk has 'most' of our fans talked towards App State?

[slostang]

Did someone say we could? And why the hate for Coastal? I know for a fact we can't "hang" with 1 of the "Big" 3 :bang: . However, I would love to see the Thundering Beach Chickens play in Statesboro for the playoffs. If not we'll see y'all next season. :nod:

I have no hate for Coastal. I respect what they have done in such a short time. I think most of the people on this board feel the same well. I also think Coastal is worthy of a playoff spot.

This thread was started asking the question, "Coastal, SC St. or Cal Poly for last bid?". If that is the question, then I feel that Cal Poly has the strongest case for the playoffsof the three. Cal Poly was left out of the playoffs last year because of the strength of their schedule. Cal Poly replaced the only D-II team on last years schedule with I-A Troy and added Montana. The Mustangs have one of the tougher schedule in I-AA. Cal Poly has played an all D-IAA schedule that included four currently ranked teams and six teams that were ranked at one point in the season in addition to the I-A game at Troy. Because of this they are rank #5 in the GPI. I think it would be a crime if Cal Poly wins next week and are left out of the playoffs again this year.

Good luck to both Coastal and SC St. and hopefully we all three shools will make it into the playoffs.

[Aggie71]

Slostang says it well. We just happened upon them at a bad moment. Next year we will do a Khruschov on them. Well, maybe.

Go Poly, We'll help

[Screamin_Eagle174]

If all the teams who are playing to get in win on Saturday you have:
3 SoCon (Appalachian, GSU, Furman)
3 Gateway (UNI, YSU and SIU)
3 A-10 (UNH, Richmond, and Massachusetts)
2 Southland (Nicholls St and Texas St)
1 Patriot (Lehigh)
1 MEAC (Hampton)
1 Big Sky (Montana)
1 OVC (Eastern Illinois)

There are 15 teams, leaving 1 spot. Who gets it from Coastal, Cal Poly or S.C. St.?

I would say Cal Poly gets it. Coastal would be #2 and S.C. St #3 in my opinion.

Others?

None.

Why? Because there will be two teams from the Big Sky- EWU will get the automatic berth because MSU is going to beat Montana this weekend. End of story. Sucks for CalPoly, it really does.

[The Fan]

The Eagles could end up 6-5 depending on their ability to handle the UC Davis freshman team this weekend. Should MSU beat the Griz, Montana and Poly would have identical records. Outside of the head-to-head, Poly will have a more impressive resume.

[putter]

None.

Why? Because there will be two teams from the Big Sky- EWU will get the automatic berth because MSU is going to beat Montana this weekend. End of story. Sucks for CalPoly, it really does.

Actually, what would suck would be to beat UM and MSU and watch the playoffs at home. Talk about opportunity squandered! :rolleyes:

[ngineer]

So many variables in play this weekend. With any number of 'upsets' a number of bubble teams will be affected. MSU/Montana; UMass/Hofstra; W&M/Richmond and even Lehigh/Lafayette are four games where the favored team could be 'upset' and the result will not be shocking since the 'underdog' in each game is very capable of winning. Also will could depend, somewhat, on the closeness of such games, too. But if UMass and UR go down, then a bunch of opportunities open up for at-larges...