Playoff Prognostication #3- Monday. Nov. 14th

[Lehigh Lover]

Predictions:

Conference Champs:

A10: UNH
Big Sky: Montana
Gateway: UNI
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Lehigh
SOCON: App. St.
Southland: Nicholls St.

Seeds:

#1: UNH
#2: Hampton
#3: Montana
#4: App. St.




At-larges:

UMass
Youngstown St.
Furman
Richmond
Georgia Southern
Cal Poly
Texas St.
SIU
Playoff Bracket:

Youngstown St. @ #1 New Hampshire
UMass @ Lehigh

Southern Illinois @ #4 App St
Eastern Illinois @ Northern Iowa

Georgia Southern @ #3 Hampton
Richmond @ Furman

Nicholls St. @ #2 Montana
Cal Poly @ Texas St

[youwouldno]

6 of 8 at-large bids would go to the SoCon, A-10, and Gateway in your scenario. I wonder if that will be a problem.

Does this projection assumes CCU is last out?

[PantherMan]

Predictions:

Conference Champs:

A10: UNH
Big Sky: Montana
Gateway: UNI
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Lehigh
SOCON: App. St.
Southland: Nicholls St.

Seeds:

#1: UNH
#2: Hampton
#3: Montana
#4: App. St.




At-larges:

UMass
Youngstown St.
Furman
Richmond
Georgia Southern
Cal Poly
Texas St.
SIU
Playoff Bracket:

Youngstown St. @ #1 New Hampshire
UMass @ Lehigh

Southern Illinois @ #4 App St
Eastern Illinois @ Northern Iowa

Georgia Southern @ #3 Hampton
Richmond @ Furman

Nicholls St. @ #2 Montana
Cal Poly @ Texas St

I like how that looks...another game with SIU in the Dome for the quarters would be interesting! Even a game against Appal. St. wouldn't be all bad, much warmer there than Delaware or Missoula... :eek:

[PantherMan]

6 of 8 at-large bids would go to the SoCon, A-10, and Gateway in your scenario. I wonder if that will be a problem.

Does this projection assumes CCU is last out?

Those are year in and year out the top conferences. The only one really missing is the BSC, which beat up on eachother pretty well this season!

[OL FU]

Predictions:

Conference Champs:

A10: UNH
Big Sky: Montana
Gateway: UNI
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Lehigh
SOCON: App. St.
Southland: Nicholls St.

Seeds:

#1: UNH
#2: Hampton
#3: Montana
#4: App. St.




At-larges:

UMass
Youngstown St.
Furman
Richmond
Georgia Southern
Cal Poly
Texas St.
SIU
Playoff Bracket:

Youngstown St. @ #1 New Hampshire
UMass @ Lehigh

Southern Illinois @ #4 App St
Eastern Illinois @ Northern Iowa

Georgia Southern @ #3 Hampton
Richmond @ Furman

Nicholls St. @ #2 Montana
Cal Poly @ Texas St

You are going to have to remind everybody includng me how you come up with this. I think it is straight off GPI correct? So it is an objective look based solely upon that.

[texcap]

I like how that looks...another game with SIU in the Dome for the quarters would be interesting! Even a game against Appal. St. wouldn't be all bad, much warmer there than Delaware or Missoula... :eek:

I agree with the Missoula comment, but Delaware is not necessarily a given. Do you realize that there are four ski resorts within 30 minutes of Boone? Boone is at 3,333 feet above sea level in the Blue Ridge mountains.

While Thanksgiving will probably be okay, it could be very cold much later. Of course weather is VERY variable at this time of year in the NC mountains.

[appst89]

I agree with the Missoula comment, but Delaware is not necessarily a given. Do you realize that there are four ski resorts within 30 minutes of Boone? Boone is at 3,333 feet above sea level in the Blue Ridge mountains.

While Thanksgiving will probably be okay, it could be very cold much later. Of course weather is VERY variable at this time of year in the NC mountains.

When ASU had to travel to Montana in 2000, I looked at the weather comparison between the two locations. If I remember correctly, Boone had a slightly colder average temperature, but Missoula averaged slightly more precipitation. According to an ASU professor I once spoke with, Boone's elevation makes its climate comparable to upstate New York. In other words, a winter trip to Boone can be quite an adventure.

[bcrawf]

The way I understood seeding was that they took the top team in each region (East, South, Midwest, West) and those teams were made the 4 top seeds and were seeded appropriately.
By that reasoning the top 4 would be:
#1 New Hampshire (East)
#2 App State (South)
#3 Montana (West)
#4 UNI (Midwest)

Coach Farley said that that is the way he understands it on our local sports show last night. This makes a ton of sense, especially since it leaves Hampton out of the top 4 where they belong!!

[OL FU]

The way I understood seeding was that they took the top team in each region (East, South, Midwest, West) and those teams were made the 4 top seeds and were seeded appropriately.
By that reasoning the top 4 would be:
#1 New Hampshire (East)
#2 App State (South)
#3 Montana (West)
#4 UNI (Midwest)

Coach Farley said that that is the way he understands it on our local sports show last night. This makes a ton of sense, especially since it leaves Hampton out of the top 4 where they belong!!

That is not the way it was last year (Maybe this year) I think it is the top four teams. Last year.

SIU
UM
GSU
and FU

Doesn't look regionalized to me.

[FlyYtown]

No complaints here at all. If YSU could get outta playing the seeds they could host a game but just getting into the playoffs is good for me!

[bcrawf]

That does seem regionalized if Fu was considered the "East" Top Team which is possible

[I-AA Fan]

Clearly, the west is light in '05. I think that one team from the East Coast, along with one from the GFC (if they have 3), or one from the SoCon will go west. With the administrative clout of the SoCon, I expect it to be the bottom GFC club (if 3 are in). So, if they make it ... YSU goes to Montana. The key factors will be:

1. Is YSU in.
2. Is Cal-Poly in.
3. Is Coastal and/or SC State in. (I guess that is technically 4 factors).

On a side note ... how many of realize how good NDSU is, and that SIU does not have the GFC autobid, and that they only have 6 DI wins?

[ASU Kep]

When ASU had to travel to Montana in 2000, I looked at the weather comparison between the two locations. If I remember correctly, Boone had a slightly colder average temperature, but Missoula averaged slightly more precipitation. According to an ASU professor I once spoke with, Boone's elevation makes its climate comparable to upstate New York. In other words, a winter trip to Boone can be quite an adventure.


And don't forget about the damn wind...thats the only thing that bugs me...I was raised to the age of 9 in Syracuse, NY and dont remember being so darn cold in the winter. Boone = natural wind gap.

[Killsback]

One thing the committee looks for is teams able to bus to another team for first round games. I believe if Eastern Illinois and SIU both win this weekend, a first round game will be Eastern Illinis at SIU. This tournament is all about how much money the NCAA can save, not spend on airplane rides. EIU at UNI is more than 300 miles which by NCAA Standards constitutes a flight and more NCAA money being spent.

You have to think regionally when making picks and also money when making picks outside of the top four seeds. They are the only ones protected.

[siugrad99]

Don't put much stock into that myth. As a Saluki fan you should know all to well what happened in 2003. Undefeated going into UNI only to lose in the last minute. Then to get the screw job and be sent to the buzzsaw known as Deleware (U of Michigan the way they played that year). So regionalizing the tournament is not something they do completely, hence EWU traveling cross country to SIU last year. Would I like a EIU vs SIU match up... absolutely as I think it would be a gift from the NCAA, but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.

[Lehigh Lover]

OL FU, I made those picks by seeding the teams how I felt they end up and regionalized the bracket to the best of my ability. As far as the home teams, based on attendance and facilities, all four (Lehigh, UNI, Texas St., Furman) should be able to bid enough for home games and have done so in the past (with the exception of Texas St).

[CrunchGriz]

And don't forget about the damn wind...thats the only thing that bugs me...I was raised to the age of 9 in Syracuse, NY and dont remember being so darn cold in the winter. Boone = natural wind gap.

Missoula is not as cold as some might have you believe. It has gotten a reputation as a cold location for a few reasons, most notably:

1. The 1995 playoff games, all played in cold weather, but notably the Stephen F. Austin game, which was played in below zero wind-chill weather, and in which Montana absolutely throttled SFA 70-14;

2. Montana's old playing surface, which took on the qualities of lumpy, slippery concrete during much of the playoffs (since replaced with SprinTurf, which can be slippery, but which holds up very well in cold weather); and

3. Montana has played a string of teams from the South in the playoffs at home, and has blown almost all of them out--teams from the South seem to feel that it really is that cold in Missoula in Late November and early December.

Missoula and Boone are almost the same altitude. It can be very windy in Washington-Grizzly at times, as well, when the winds come whipping down Hellgate Canyon.

The last few years the first games of the playoffs in Missoula have been played in average temps of around 28-30 degrees, with slightly colder temps for later round games.

Temperature is an advantage, but it's the least of Montana's advantages in Wash-Griz, believe me. ;)

[ngineer]

When ASU had to travel to Montana in 2000, I looked at the weather comparison between the two locations. If I remember correctly, Boone had a slightly colder average temperature, but Missoula averaged slightly more precipitation. According to an ASU professor I once spoke with, Boone's elevation makes its climate comparable to upstate New York. In other words, a winter trip to Boone can be quite an adventure.

Colgate of the South!! :eek: :D

[Hansel]

EIU at UNI is more than 300 miles which by NCAA Standards constitutes a flight and more NCAA money being spent.


I am pretty sure it is a 500 mile rule for a bus trip per the NCAA

[GSU Eagle]

I am fairly certain at this point the top 4 seeds should be App. St., Montana, Hampton and New Hampshire. New Hampshire seems an obvious #1. #2-#4 could be in various orders. I wonder how much stock the NCAA puts into Hampton's 11-0 record (yes they will be 11-0 after destroying a hapless Savannah St. team Saturday). I could see the committee giving Hampton a #2 seed although I don't believe they deserve it.

If any of Montana, Appalachian or New Hampshire lose Saturday the next 3 in line for seeds should be 1. Texas St. 2. Furman 3. Ga. Southern

[grizband]

That is not the way it was last year (Maybe this year) I think it is the top four teams. Last year.

SIU
UM
GSU
and FU

Doesn't look regionalized to me.
William and Mary was a seed, not Montana. We were able to host because SIU and GSU both lost in the first round.

[ngineer]

I am fairly certain at this point the top 4 seeds should be App. St., Montana, Hampton and New Hampshire. New Hampshire seems an obvious #1. #2-#4 could be in various orders. I wonder how much stock the NCAA puts into Hampton's 11-0 record (yes they will be 11-0 after destroying a hapless Savannah St. team Saturday). I could see the committee giving Hampton a #2 seed although I don't believe they deserve it.
If any of Montana, Appalachian or New Hampshire lose Saturday the next 3 in line for seeds should be 1. Texas St. 2. Furman 3. Ga. Southern

Not necessarily. I think the committee does look at the quality of the schedule/opposition and reputation. In 2000, Lehigh went 11-0 beating Wofford in SC by 20, Harvard in Cambridge by 32, and not only did not get seeded, but was sent to Western Illinois in the first round, winning by 30. The following year, going 10-0 (one game cancelled due to 9/11), LU got a home game in the first round, but still was not seeded.

[Cincy App]

My playoff pairings would look like this:

Lehigh at #1 UNH
Furman at UMass

Richmond at #4 Hampton
CCU at GSU

Nichols St at #2 Montana
Cal Poly at Texas St

Youngstown St at #3 ASU
E. Illinois at UNI

This is based on the following scenarios:
- SIU losing to ND St
- Playoff Selection Committee hesitant to give 3 home games to SoCon
- Montana defeating MSU
- Lehigh over Lafayette
- all other bubble teams winning

I believe that CCU is the last team in. YSU or Cal Poly would be the 2nd to last team in, IMO. More upsets would open the door to SC St, a second Patriot team, or a 4 loss team such as Illinois St.

We'll go back to the drawing board after Saturday's results! A change in one team can easily have a domino effect on the pairings.

[Killsback]

Don't put much stock into that myth. As a Saluki fan you should know all to well what happened in 2003. Undefeated going into UNI only to lose in the last minute. Then to get the screw job and be sent to the buzzsaw known as Deleware (U of Michigan the way they played that year). So regionalizing the tournament is not something they do completely, hence EWU traveling cross country to SIU last year. Would I like a EIU vs SIU match up... absolutely as I think it would be a gift from the NCAA, but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.

Western Kentucky in 2003 was also a playoff team, ranked below SIU and was a bus trip to Jacksonville State for a first round game. SIU had no where to bus to and the Salukis were one of those teams with no close opponent. They could have played Jacksonville State, with WKU going to Delaware, but they chose the bus trip for one and a flight for the other. Trust me the committee wants to save money more than they want classic match-ups.

[PantherMan]

Western Kentucky in 2003 was also a playoff team, ranked below SIU and was a bus trip to Jacksonville State for a first round game. SIU had no where to bus to and the Salukis were one of those teams with no close opponent. They could have played Jacksonville State, with WKU going to Delaware, but they chose the bus trip for one and a flight for the other. Trust me the committee wants to save money more than they want classic match-ups.

But the question remains, can SIU bid nearly what UNI will bid? If UNI bids a considerable amount more $$$ than SIU, then we would get EIU regardless of the potential additional cost of an airplane ride. Actually, I believe that EIU may be within the NCAA's regulations to be bused anyhow, but not 100% on that one.

[McTailGator]

But the question remains, can SIU bid nearly what UNI will bid? If UNI bids a considerable amount more $$$ than SIU, then we would get EIU regardless of the potential additional cost of an airplane ride. Actually, I believe that EIU may be within the NCAA's regulations to be bused anyhow, but not 100% on that one.

Bids don't work like that....

The NCAA sets a minimum amount that the higher seeded team must match in order to host. If that higher seeded team does not agree to meet the minimum financial obligation, then the game goes to the lower seeded team as long as they agree on the minimum financial guarantee.

If two non seeded teams beat two seeded teams and wind up playing each other, then the non-seeded team that beat the higher seeded team gets the game (as long as they agree to meet the NCAA minimum financial guarantee amount).

This keeps schools with deep pockets (or boosters of schools with deep pockets) from buying wins and rewards teams whos players have achieved excellence on the field with a shot at a home game.

[Eaglegus2]

I think I am going to throw this whole prognostication into one hugh whirlwind with my picks.

Here we go:

Bracket #1

Lehigh @ #1 New Hampshire
Richmond @ Youngstown State

UMass @ #4 Hampton
Texas State @ Georgia Southern

Bracket #2

Coastal Carolina @ #2 Furman
Eastern Washington @ U. Northern Iowa

Eastern Ill. @ #3 Appalachian State
Cal-Poly @ Montana


Of course, all this depends on the upcoming upsets on Saturday.

Don't you just love this insanity?

[bluehenbillk]

Here's how I see it:

Lehigh @ #1 UNH
YSU @ GSU

Richmond @ #4 Hampton
CCU or SIU (if they beat NDSU) @ Furman

OVC winner @ #2 Montana
CalPoly @ Nicholls St

Texas St @ #3 Appalachian St
UMass @ N Iowa

[Eaglegus2]

Here's how I see it:

Lehigh @ #1 UNH
YSU @ GSU

Richmond @ #4 Hampton
CCU or SIU (if they beat NDSU) @ Furman

OVC winner @ #2 Montana
CalPoly @ Nicholls St

Texas St @ #3 Appalachian St
UMass @ N Iowa


My question is: "Wouldn't the UMass @ N. Iowa be a totally waste of travel funds"? The idea was try to cut down on traveling expenses in the 1st round.

The YSU @ GSU would be a wasteful expenditure for traveling.

[Stang Fever]

Has anyone played thought about what could happen out here on the West with Montana State Playing Montan this weekend....WHAT IF MSU upsets MONTANA and gives Eastern the auto bid...............NOW what for the brackets

[bluehenbillk]

And Texas St @ GSU & EWU @ UNI isn't??

Some teams will have to travel somewhat, otherwise you have the D3 playoffs where you get seeded against teams in your own region.

[TypicalTribe]

Jax St at #1 UNH
Lehigh at YSU - bus ride

Richmond at #4 Hampton - bus ride
CCU at GSU - bus ride

Nicholls St at #2 Montana
Cal Poly at UNI

UMass at #3 ASU
Furman at TSU

[Eaglegus2]

Has anyone played thought about what could happen out here on the West with Montana State Playing Montan this weekend....WHAT IF MSU upsets MONTANA and gives Eastern the auto bid...............NOW what for the brackets

My predictions have that in mind. The upset will throw all the brackets into a frenzy. :nod:

I do believe the Nichols State will fall and Texas State will be the auto bid.

[ngineer]

Jax St at #1 UNH
Lehigh at YSU - bus rideRichmond at #4 Hampton - bus ride
CCU at GSU - bus ride

Nicholls St at #2 Montana
Cal Poly at UNI

UMass at #3 ASU
Furman at TSU

Interesting..Hadn't thought of that possibility. Youngstown is about a 6 hour ride from Bethlehem...Mentally we tend to 'cut off' the East at the Applachian Mts, but that would work. The 'igloo' would be a neat place to play.

[JaxSinfonian]

Jax St at #1 UNH
Lehigh at YSU - bus ride

Richmond at #4 Hampton - bus ride
CCU at GSU - bus ride

Nicholls St at #2 Montana
Cal Poly at UNI

UMass at #3 ASU
Furman at TSU

Why not send Texas State to UNH and send Jax State back to Furman for yet another bus ride game? C'mon, just give us one more shot at 'em! First things first, gotta get in the field of 16.

[OL FU]

Why not send Texas State to UNH and send Jax State back to Furman for yet another bus ride game? C'mon, just give us one more shot at 'em! First things first, gotta get in the field of 16.

You get your shot next year :D . Is there any possibility EKU losses? (other than Any given saturday)

[JaxSinfonian]

Is there any possibility EKU losses? (other than Any given saturday)

Based on the way TSU's been playing, it ain't likely. I've just gotta hope they play the game of their lives, or else our athletics staff better be pretty lucky lotto players.

Hypothetically speaking, though, how big would another JSU-Furman rematch be? Talk about a game with storyline ...

[OL FU]

Based on the way TSU's been playing, it ain't likely. I've just gotta hope they play the game of their lives, or else our athletics staff better be pretty lucky lotto players.

Hypothetically speaking, though, how big would another JSU-Furman rematch be? Talk about a game with storyline ...

Thanks for the info. There is no doubt the storyline would be good. But as I said re: another school, I don't really want to play a team we have already beat.

[TypicalTribe]

Why not send Texas State to UNH and send Jax State back to Furman for yet another bus ride game? C'mon, just give us one more shot at 'em! First things first, gotta get in the field of 16.

No way you can match up the #4 and #2 teams in the GPI in the first round. Also, JSU and Furman played in last year's playoffs and the first game this year. I tried to match the seeds up with some of the "weaker" teams in the field.

[TypicalTribe]

Interesting..Hadn't thought of that possibility. Youngstown is about a 6 hour ride from Bethlehem...Mentally we tend to 'cut off' the East at the Applachian Mts, but that would work. The 'igloo' would be a neat place to play.

It just struck me as an intriguing #8/#9 kind of game with some decent regional flavor.

[Happy Penguin]

It just struck me as an intriguing #8/#9 kind of game with some decent regional flavor.

I'd like to see that match-up. Sounds good to me....

[GoGuins]

Interesting..Hadn't thought of that possibility. Youngstown is about a 6 hour ride from Bethlehem...Mentally we tend to 'cut off' the East at the Applachian Mts, but that would work. The 'igloo' would be a neat place to play.

This is the scenario I will hope for. Playing at either place suits me fine, but I of course prefer the Ice Castle for obvious reasons. I believe Lehigh may be the closest I-AA (scholarship) from YSU besides WKU, which is about the same distance.

[TypicalTribe]

This is the scenario I will hope for. Playing at either place suits me fine, but I of course prefer the Ice Castle for obvious reasons. I believe Lehigh may be the closest I-AA (scholarship) from YSU besides WKU, which is about the same distance.

Wouldn't surprise me if the venue came down to a "Battle of the Bids".

[Saint3333]

Jax St at #1 UNH
Lehigh at YSU - bus ride

Richmond at #4 Hampton - bus ride
CCU at GSU - bus ride

Nicholls St at #2 Montana
Cal Poly at UNI

UMass at #3 ASU
Furman at TSU

Tribe you might be right, but the bottom half of your bracket is much tougher than the top. Especially the last four teams, all 4 are in top ten.

[TypicalTribe]

Tribe you might be right, but the bottom half of your bracket is much tougher than the top. Especially the last four teams, all 4 are in top ten.

In the World Cup, soccer fans like to refer to it as the Group of Death.

You're right with the last four, but I didn't like the idea of CCU going back to ASU. Also, I think the #1 seed should have the easiest road. Hampton is the #4 and has arguably the toughest, facing a red-hot Richmond team and then potentially GSU.

Also remember that the East Coast teams often get easier opening games because of their geographical proximity to the OVC, MEAC, Patriot, etc.

[FU97]

No way you can match up the #4 and #2 teams in the GPI in the first round. Also, JSU and Furman played in last year's playoffs and the first game this year. I tried to match the seeds up with some of the "weaker" teams in the field.

I would think Texas State would be coming to Furman instead of the other way around. Our attendence is slightly better and we have historically bid enough to get home games.

[TypicalTribe]

I would think Texas State would be coming to Furman instead of the other way around. Our attendence is slightly better and we have historically bid enough to get home games.

It just has kind of a WKU at SHSU in 2004 kind of feel to it.

[Cap'n Cat]

And Texas St @ GSU & EWU @ UNI isn't??

Some teams will have to travel somewhat, otherwise you have the D3 playoffs where you get seeded against teams in your own region.



Agree with bill (Jesus, did I just say that?). You can't assume the NCAA would be so strict about mileage when a championship is at stake.

[TypicalTribe]

Agree with bill (Jesus, did I just say that?). You can't assume the NCAA would be so strict about mileage when a championship is at stake.

Not sure about anyone else, but when I'm trying to come up with pairings, I usually try to rank the teams from #1-16 and try to pair up the seeds with the weakest four teams, if possible. Geography can sometimes screw with this, but it's usually workable. After that, the middle 8 teams usually aren't separated by that much, so it's easier to just try to go by regional matchups if possible.