Chris Lang on Liberty misconceptions

[SuperJon]

Did Liberty secure its spot in the 16-team FCS playoff field yesterday? Conventional wisdom would say yes, but NCAA selection committees in all sports have done strange things in the past, so there’s no certainly that Liberty’s name will be on the final bracket sheet when it is unveiled tonight.

First off, for first-time readers of this blog, I wanted to clear up some misconceptions about the Flames and their schedule this season. A big part of this job is reading message boards and listening to fans. That’s a good chunk of any writer’s reading base, so you can’t ignore it. There’s a lot of misinformation out there. So let’s tackle a few issues:

http://www.newsadvance.com/lna/sports/sports_blog/article/liberty_report_playoff_musings/10917/

[ToTheLeft]

Excellent write-up, Chris! xbowx xbowx

[knucklehead]

Nice read. Great logic that all the Liberty doubters should read. It is a very unbiased look from someone that saw every LU game this year.

[ToTheLeft]

Nice read. Great logic that all the Liberty doubters should read. It is a very unbiased look from someone that saw every LU game this year.

You contradicted yourself a little.

Regardless, his points are quite valid, whether or not he's the Liberty beat writer.

[WMTribe90]

WM SOS > Liberty SOS

Win over UNH > Win over Elon

CAA > Big South

WM no bad losses > Liberty loss to Presbyterian

WM GPI 8 > Liberty GPI 17

No disrespect to Liberty, a program on the rise and a good team, but their resume does not stack up to WM's and I have yet to see anybody make a convincing argument to the contrary. Yeah WM should have taken care of business against UR, but Liberty should have taken care of business against Presbyterian and shouldn't have scheduled any DII teams knowing the would need to compensate for a weakend Big South conference schedule. WM shouldn't be penalized for playing three top ten teams and an ACC school. Our wins are still better than Liberty's wins.

[Reign of Terrier]

Okay I finally am confident that Liberty will make the playoffs.

[WMTribe90]

It is a very unbiased look from someone that saw every LU game this year.

xlolx xlolx

[knucklehead]

As opposed to folks who never see LU play and yet feel they know from the scoreboard how good or bad they are? PaLease!
Come on guys Chris is a very respected writer who is paid to follow LU. He is not and LU fan.

[Skjellyfetti]

I don't really care if it's William and Mary or Liberty that gets the last spot. But... his argument that Liberty's schedule isn't weak is laughable.

[joecooll6]

Disagree, Liberty had the burden of proof and failed to deliver.

-Bill and Mary's best win is better than Liberty's best win.
-All four of Bill and Mary's four losses are worlds better than both of Liberty's two losses.
-When you take out D2 and FBS games then the comparison is an 8-2 team vs a 7-3 team.
-Looking at a team thats one game apart from the other, the SOS, good win, bad losses and conference affiliation make up for the one game difference.

Plus there is something to be said about Liberty struggling against bad teams multiple times, especially since you're comparing them to William and Mary who generally didnt.

[ToTheLeft]

Disagree, Liberty had the burden of proof and failed to deliver.

-Bill and Mary's best win is better than Liberty's best win.
-All four of Bill and Mary's four losses are worlds better than both of Liberty's two losses.
-When you take out D2 and FBS games then the comparison is an 8-2 team vs a 7-3 team.
-Looking at a team thats one game apart from the other, the SOS, good win, bad losses and conference affiliation make up for the one game difference.

Plus there is something to be said about Liberty struggling against bad teams multiple times, especially since you're comparing them to William and Mary who generally didnt.

They finished 4th in the CAA South. The three teams above them all beat them, 2 of them pretty soundly. I just don't see how you can say you deserve a chance to play and win in the playoffs if you can't even finish in the top half of your division. The three teams above them are playoff caliber, and they couldn't beat any of them. They had a chance to play their way in, and lost.

[knucklehead]

They finished 4th in the CAA South. The three teams above them all beat them, 2 of them pretty soundly. I just don't see how you can say you deserve a chance to play and win in the playoffs if you can't even finish in the top half of your division. The three teams above them are playoff caliber, and they couldn't beat any of them. They had a chance to play their way in, and lost.



xnodx What he said!

[WMTribe90]

Current Sagarin:
Elon - 13
WM - 8
Maine - 10
Liberty - 17

GPI going into this weekend:
Elon - 11
WM - 12
Maine - 14
Liberty - 27T

Now, WM, Elon and Maine will drop and Liberty will rise, but on monday the order will likely be WM, Maine, Elon and Liberty.

Best Win

WM - @UNH (#10)
Maine - @UMass (unranked)
Liberty - Elon (#17)
Elon - Furman (unranked)

Bad Loses

WM - none, but JMU was blowout
Maine - none, but took 2OT to put away Hofstra at home
Liberty - Presbyterian
Elon - none, but blown out by Wofford and @Liberty

Common Opponents

Maine and WM
JMU 10-24, 24-48
UNH 24-28, 38-34
UD 27-10, 27-3
UR 17-44, 20-23 OT
URI 37-7, 34-24
NU 20-0, 38-17
Totals = 135 - 113, 181 - 149, Advantage WM

WM and Liberty
VMI 52-17, 38-26, Advantage WM

WM and Elon
UR 20-23 OT, 10-28, Advantage WM

Analysis

WM has seven DI wins and has a win over #10 and playoff bound UNH at UNH. WM lost by 10 to NCST (ACC). WM lost by 10 to Villanova (#6) with our back-up QB, #1 JMU by 24 and to #7 UR by 3. WM has no bad losses, plays in the toughest division of the toughest FCS conference. VMI and NSU are not strong OOC opponents, but WM's margin of victory was what you would expect from a playoff caliber team. WM has lost their last two after winning five straight, but both loses were to top ten teams.

Maine has 8 DI wins, no wins over ranked or playoff-bound opponents, and one of their wins was against non-scholarship Iona. Maine has won 7 of their last 8. The north division of the CAA is weaker than the south, but the committee could favor a second north team over a fourth south team.

Elon has 8 DI wins, but after Furman's loss today, none of their wins will lis over ranked opponents. Elon lost three of their last four games.

Liberty has 8 DI wins and is the only team in consideration that won yesterday. However, Liberty's SOS is not on par with the other bubble teams. The committee may like to give the Big South champ a playoff spot, but they could just as easily deny Liberty for scheduling two sub-DI opponents (even one DII was too many if they were serious about earning an at-large from the Big South). They have a bad loss to Presbyterian, truthfully a game a playoff squad shouldn't lose. Additionally, a 3 point win over YSU, 5 point win over CCU, and a 14 point loss to Lafayette does not look like the resume of a playoff caliber team. One of those by itself could be explained away, but not all four IMO.

WM may not be playoff caliber, but by virtually every objective standard they appear to be the best team available. WM has the highest GPI, best SOS, best win (UNH), no bad losses, and won convincingly against teams you would expect a top 16 team to beat.

[ToTheLeft]

That's like the 6th time you've posted that... haha.

[Dukie95]

The problem with this article and the Liberty posters here is that they fail to acknowledge that the level of football the Flames has been exposed to is so far behind that that the CAA teams face each week of the season.

Don't talk to me about how the Coastal and VMI games weren't as close as those final scores...don't you realize that 10 out of 12 CAA teams would have finished all of those games by halftime?

Now, I think Liberty will make the playoffs, but I think W&M is the better team.

[WMTribe90]

They finished 4th in the CAA South. The three teams above them all beat them, 2 of them pretty soundly. I just don't see how you can say you deserve a chance to play and win in the playoffs if you can't even finish in the top half of your division. The three teams above them are playoff caliber, and they couldn't beat any of them. They had a chance to play their way in, and lost.

Say the fan of a team that didn't play any top ten teams and didn't beat any team headed to the playoffs. Why should we be punished for playing a tough schedule. All that matters is that our resume is better than Liberty's resume, which it is by every objective standard. People keep pointing out the obvious holes in our resume (and I agree with them), but no one has made the case that Liberty has the better resume as I have done for WM above.

[ToTheLeft]

The problem with this article and the Liberty posters here is that they fail to acknowledge that the level of football the Flames has been exposed to is so far behind that that the CAA teams face each week of the season.

Don't talk to me about how the Coastal and VMI games weren't as close as those final scores...don't you realize that 10 out of 12 CAA teams would have finished all of those games by halftime?

Now, I think Liberty will make the playoffs, but I think W&M is the better team.

I think that LU could have beat the Dallas Cowboys and the CAA Fans on this board would say it was nothing compared to their 30 point win over Towson.

[knucklehead]

Say the fan of a team that didn't play any top ten teams and didn't beat any team headed to the playoffs. Why should we be punished for playing a tough schedule. All that matters is that our resume is better than Liberty's resume, which it is by every objective standard. People keep pointing out the obvious holes in our resume (and I agree with them), but no one has made the case that Liberty has the better resume as I have done for WM above.

When it comes to the conference schedule you play the conference you are in. Either way LU has more wins, and yes D1 wins! There is no such things as quality losses!

[tribe_pride]

They finished 4th in the CAA South. The three teams above them all beat them, 2 of them pretty soundly. I just don't see how you can say you deserve a chance to play and win in the playoffs if you can't even finish in the top half of your division. The three teams above them are playoff caliber, and they couldn't beat any of them. They had a chance to play their way in, and lost.

They finished 4th in a division that has the 1, 6 and 7 ranked teams in FCS.

They got beaten soundly (crushed) by the one ranked team, lost by 10 to the 6th ranked team and in OT to the 7th ranked team. Not saying that W&M is going to get in but if you make an argument at least make it a good argument.

[ToTheLeft]

Say the fan of a team that didn't play any top ten teams and didn't beat any team headed to the playoffs. Why should we be punished for playing a tough schedule. All that matters is that our resume is better than Liberty's resume, which it is by every objective standard. People keep pointing out the obvious holes in our resume (and I agree with them), but no one has made the case that Liberty has the better resume as I have done for WM above.

You just aren't reading if you haven't seen a reason for LU to get in.

We won our conference, undefeated. We met all the requirements for the "auto-bridge", which we unfortunately don't qualify for yet as a conference. We won the last week of the season in a "must win" situation. We only lost two games, and won 8 against Division 1 competition. We are the 14th ranked team in the Media Poll. We got screwed out of our 11th DI game, and were forced to add a second DII school to round out our schedule. We played the schedule we thought would be tough enough, but Youngstown fell apart all season long... although they did beat ranked WIU this weekend (but let's not think about that). The Coastal game was a 12 point win, except that Rashad Jennings decided to take a knee at the 1 instead of go in for a score to let us run out the clock and leave with a W instead of dealing with their offense anymore.

[WMTribe90]

When it comes to the conference schedule you play the conference you are in. Either way LU has more wins, and yes D1 wins! There is no such things as quality losses!

Not all wins are equal, just as not all loses are equal (see San Diego). The committee has demonstrated time and time again that it weights wins and loses and takes SOS into strong consideration.

[argh!]

cal poly is not in the same conference as montana and weber. wish they were, though.

[joecooll6]

I think that LU could have beat the Dallas Cowboys and the CAA Fans on this board would say it was nothing compared to their 30 point win over Towson.

I'm not a CAA fan, in fact I generally dislike the CAA, but facts is facts man. There is absolutely nothing about Liberty's resume thats better than W&M. You can talk about them finishing 4th in their division, but they finished 4th behind 3 top 10 teams who are all going to the playoffs. Their 4 losses are to top ten teams and an FBS team. Liberty lost the the 4th place Patriot League team and an aweful aweful Presbyterian team. Liberty has NOTHING on W&M except a conference championship in a subpar conference.

[ToTheLeft]

They finished 4th in a division that has the 1, 6 and 7 ranked teams in FCS.

They got beaten soundly (crushed) by the one ranked team, lost by 10 to the 6th ranked team and in OT to the 7th ranked team. Not saying that W&M is going to get in but if you make an argument at least make it a good argument.

There is no "good argument" for you guys. The CAA in general, but especially W and M fans.

The ignorance your fans showed to us on our trip there last season shines through once again. You did nothing to prove you are anything more than a "good" team. You lost to the teams you were supposed to lose to, and beat the ones you were supposed to beat. You didn't beat any of those top ranked teams you brag about playing, because you aren't good enough. You had 2 chances to LOCK UP a playoff spot, with a win over either JMU or Richmond, and you blew them both. How about you sit at home in the offseason and figure out how to beat these teams, instead of taking a playoff spot away from a team who actually has a chance to make some noise? You have proven you can't beat JMU, let us have our chance to see what we can do.

[joecooll6]

They finished 4th in the CAA South. The three teams above them all beat them, 2 of them pretty soundly. I just don't see how you can say you deserve a chance to play and win in the playoffs if you can't even finish in the top half of your division. The three teams above them are playoff caliber, and they couldn't beat any of them. They had a chance to play their way in, and lost.

Liberty had a chance to play their way in too. Beat Presby and you are in, beat Lafayette and you are probably in, win them both and you are definitely in. They had a chance to play their way in and lost.

[WMTribe90]

We won our conference, undefeated. We met all the requirements for the "auto-bridge", which we unfortunately don't qualify for yet as a conference. We won the last week of the season in a "must win" situation. We only lost two games, and won 8 against Division 1 competition. We are the 14th ranked team in the Media Poll. We got screwed out of our 11th DI game, and were forced to add a second DII school to round out our schedule. We played the schedule we thought would be tough enough, but Youngstown fell apart all season long... although they did beat ranked WIU this weekend (but let's not think about that). The Coastal game was a 12 point win, except that Rashad Jennings decided to take a knee at the 1 instead of go in for a score to let us run out the clock and leave with a W instead of dealing with their offense anymore.

That's all fine and dandy, but you still haven't explained how your resume trumps WM's resume. Bottom line (see my above explanation) our 7 wins > than Liberty's 8 wins when you consider strength of schedule. That's why were 9 spots higher in the GPI. We've beaten a top ten program on the road that is headed to the playoffs, etc.

I suspect Liberty will get in, but its not because you did more to earn it.

[WMTribe90]

Liberty had a chance to play their way in too. Beat Presby and you are in, beat Lafayette and you are probably in, win them both and you are definitely in. They had a chance to play their way in and lost.

Play one less DII and they are in...

[ToTheLeft]

Liberty had a chance to play their way in too. Beat Presby and you are in, beat Lafayette and you are probably in, win them both and you are definitely in. They had a chance to play their way in and lost.

You're right, falling asleep midseason against inferior opponents is the same as being in a "win and in" situation and laying an egg.

xoopsx

William and Mary had their chance to lock up a spot. A win against Richmond would have put them squarely ahead of Liberty. They blew it. They proved they can't handle a playoff situation. They lost their golden ticket to the playoffs.

[ToTheLeft]

Play one less DII and they are in...

Blame NC Central for that, not Liberty. Not our fault they backed out on us. Or blame JMU, who didn't want to play a game while all their students were on break.

What can LU do when TWO DI teams back out on them, one of which was quite late in the process?

[knucklehead]

That's all fine and dandy, but you still haven't explained how your resume trumps WM's resume. Bottom line (see my above explanation) our 7 wins > than Liberty's 8 wins when you consider strength of schedule. That's why were 9 spots higher in the GPI. We've beaten a top ten program on the road that is headed to the playoffs, etc.

I suspect Liberty will get in, but its not because you did more to earn it.

NO! Your team did LESS to earn it. 4 LOSSES!!!!!!!!!!
Come on, put down the kool aid. LU was robbed of a win against your team last year, and now it's our turn to steal a playoff berth from you.

[joecooll6]

You just aren't reading if you haven't seen a reason for LU to get in.

We won our conference, undefeated. We met all the requirements for the "auto-bridge", which we unfortunately don't qualify for yet as a conference. We won the last week of the season in a "must win" situation. We only lost two games, and won 8 against Division 1 competition. We are the 14th ranked team in the Media Poll. We got screwed out of our 11th DI game, and were forced to add a second DII school to round out our schedule. We played the schedule we thought would be tough enough, but Youngstown fell apart all season long... although they did beat ranked WIU this weekend (but let's not think about that). The Coastal game was a 12 point win, except that Rashad Jennings decided to take a knee at the 1 instead of go in for a score to let us run out the clock and leave with a W instead of dealing with their offense anymore.

The fact that you are flaunting a 3 point win over a 4-8 team, because that team beat a 6-5 team two months later, proves you have no leg to stand on schedule wise.

[ToTheLeft]

That's all fine and dandy, but you still haven't explained how your resume trumps WM's resume. Bottom line (see my above explanation) our 7 wins > than Liberty's 8 wins when you consider strength of schedule. That's why were 9 spots higher in the GPI. We've beaten a top ten program on the road that is headed to the playoffs, etc.

I suspect Liberty will get in, but its not because you did more to earn it.

Okay, so you beat...

VMI... great, so did we, but on the road.

Norfolk State... great... a 5-7 team that finished 3-5 in the MEAC. That win is on par if not worse than Youngstown or Western

UNH... The only win you have to hang your hat on. Congrats.

Delaware, Rhody, Towson, Northeastern... All of these are really "meh" wins. I don't see how these are "worlds better" than Charleston Southern, Gardner Webb, Coastal Carolina, and Stony Brook.

[ToTheLeft]

The fact that you are flaunting a 3 point win over a 4-8 team, because that team beat a 6-5 team two months later, proves you have no leg to stand on schedule wise.

Yeah, that's the only leg I'm using to stand on. That's why I had a whole paragraph and you just bolded one sentence. xnonono2x xnonono2x

[joecooll6]

You're right, falling asleep midseason against inferior opponents is the same as being in a "win and in" situation and laying an egg.

xoopsx

William and Mary had their chance to lock up a spot. A win against Richmond would have put them squarely ahead of Liberty. They blew it. They proved they can't handle a playoff situation. They lost their golden ticket to the playoffs.

How can you sit there and seriously defend this line of thinking. Lafayette and Presby! By your line of thinking, you have proven you can't handle the Patriot League, let alone the playoffs!

[knucklehead]

The fact that you are flaunting a 3 point win over a 4-8 team, because that team beat a 6-5 team two months later, proves you have no leg to stand on schedule wise.

What ever happened to a win is a win? If it were your team you would be talking about the grit and determination they showed pulling off a huge road win.
Let's face it, you guys give neither LU or the Big South any credit. Our program is on the rise and you just aren't prepared to face it. Get used to it.

[joecooll6]

Yeah, that's the only leg I'm using to stand on. That's why I had a whole paragraph and you just bolded one sentence. xnonono2x xnonono2x

I said no leg to stand on.

You're twisting my words.

[ToTheLeft]

I said no leg to stand on.

You're twisting my words.

Haha, whatever dude. The only reason I am on here arguing with you guys is because I literally have nothing to do until the selection show.

[Eight Legger]

Basically this argument will come down to whether the committee penalizes W&M for not scheduling a 12th game and/or rewards Liberty for doing so. My thought is if W&M scheduled any of the 10 teams Liberty beat, it would be 8-4 instead of 7-4. Hence, I give the bid to W&M.

[joecooll6]

What ever happened to a win is a win? If it were your team you would be talking about the grit and determination they showed pulling off a huge road win.
Let's face it, you guys give neither LU or the Big South any credit. Our program is on the rise and you just aren't prepared to face it. Get used to it.

Liberty is a good team, the proved it by beating Elon yesterday. However, you get into the playoffs based on what youve done during the season and your body of work just doesnt compare to Bill and Marys.

[ToTheLeft]

Liberty is a good team, the proved it by beating Elon yesterday. However, you get into the playoffs based on what youve done during the season and your body of work just doesnt compare to Bill and Marys.

Aside from UNH, they didn't have ANY good wins. They beat a bunch of low low low level CAA teams and a low MEAC and a low Big South. The Elon win is almost as good as the UNH win, and add in the CSU and SBU wins and I would say LU has as good of a body of work.

[knucklehead]

I'm just glad that 105 of the guys on here think LU is in while only 57 think W&M is in. So your peers think LU is in. Hopefully the Committe agrees.
I'm tired of arguing with people who are just ignorant of LU's acomplishments and talent and crowd!

View Poll Results: Will liberty get in
Yes 105 64.81% xthumbsupx xthumbsupx
No 57 35.19%
Voters: 162.

[DTSpider]

I blame JMU. JMU cancelled the game thinking it would be fall break, which it wasn't, and that's the worst reason to cancel a game I've ever heard. If Liberty would have played JMU than it would be no argument.

[tribe_pride]

There is no "good argument" for you guys. The CAA in general, but especially W and M fans.

The ignorance your fans showed to us on our trip there last season shines through once again. You did nothing to prove you are anything more than a "good" team. You lost to the teams you were supposed to lose to, and beat the ones you were supposed to beat. You didn't beat any of those top ranked teams you brag about playing, because you aren't good enough. You had 2 chances to LOCK UP a playoff spot, with a win over either JMU or Richmond, and you blew them both. How about you sit at home in the offseason and figure out how to beat these teams, instead of taking a playoff spot away from a team who actually has a chance to make some noise? You have proven you can't beat JMU, let us have our chance to see what we can do.

And there is no "good argument" for you guys either.

What about UNH. We beat them and they finished 11th ranked so that is ahead of your best win as Elon. And they are making the playoffs.

Not saying W&M is in but there at least is a decent argument that they should be in over Liberty.

[knucklehead]

I blame JMU. JMU cancelled the game thinking it would be fall break, which it wasn't, and that's the worst reason to cancel a game I've ever heard. If Liberty would have played JMU than it would be no argument.


I agree and so will the committee. Our HC and AD have both submitted info on the scheduling nightmare at the last minute both by JMU and NCCU!

[joecooll6]

Aside from UNH, they didn't have ANY good wins. They beat a bunch of low low low level CAA teams and a low MEAC and a low Big South. The Elon win is almost as good as the UNH win, and add in the CSU and SBU wins and I would say LU has as good of a body of work.

CSU and especially SBU are not good wins. They both have 1 win to speak of, and the rest arent good.

The difference lies in the losses. All the teams that Bill and Mary lost to are playoff bound or FBS, Liberty's losses are to the 4th place Patriot League team and one of the worst teams in FCS.

[Appguy]

I say W&M in over Liberty

[joecooll6]

I'm just glad that 105 of the guys on here think LU is in while only 57 think W&M is in. So your peers think LU is in. Hopefully the Committe agrees.
I'm tired of arguing with people who are just ignorant of LU's acomplishments and talent and crowd!

View Poll Results: Will liberty get in
Yes 105 64.81% xthumbsupx xthumbsupx
No 57 35.19%
Voters: 162.

You cant sit there and call me ignorant just because I'm poking holes in your point. I havent seen either Liberty or W&M play this year. I dont know who WILL get in, Im just saying who I think should get in. When you are comparing an 8-2 team vs a 7-3 team, both with one good win you have to look at who they lost to.

[WMTribe90]

Current Sagarin:
Elon - 13
WM - 8
Maine - 10
Liberty - 17

GPI going into this weekend:
Elon - 11
WM - 12
Maine - 14
Liberty - 27T

Now, WM, Elon and Maine will drop and Liberty will rise, but on monday the order will likely be WM, Maine, Elon and Liberty.

Best Win

WM - @UNH (#10)
Maine - @UMass (unranked)
Liberty - Elon (#17)
Elon - Furman (unranked)

Bad Loses

WM - none, but JMU was blowout
Maine - none, but took 2OT to put away Hofstra at home
Liberty - Presbyterian
Elon - none, but blown out by Wofford and @Liberty

Common Opponents

Maine and WM
JMU 10-24, 24-48
UNH 24-28, 38-34
UD 27-10, 27-3
UR 17-44, 20-23 OT
URI 37-7, 34-24
NU 20-0, 38-17
Totals = 135 - 113, 181 - 149, Advantage WM

WM and Liberty
VMI 52-17, 38-26, Advantage WM

WM and Elon
UR 20-23 OT, 10-28, Advantage WM

[ToTheLeft]

And there is no "good argument" for you guys either.

What about UNH. We beat them and they finished 11th ranked so that is ahead of your best win as Elon. And they are making the playoffs.

Not saying W&M is in but there at least is a decent argument that they should be in over Liberty.

Your top three wins are against UNH.....

...

Rhody and Delaware?

We beat CSU, CCU, and Stony Brook (who beat Patriot Champ Colgate)... oh yeah, and Elon.

Our wins are better, the UNH win doesn't just give you the playoffs automatically.

[Skjellyfetti]

Winning over CSU, CCU, and Stony Brook does not make a decent argument. Try again.

[Cincy App]

A team that plays a very weak schedule and loses to Presbyterian does not deserve to be in the playoffs. With that being said, there is not another "more deserving" team. Thus, I expect Liberty to slip in the field and get hammered by JMU in the first round.

[ToTheLeft]

William and Mary has not beaten anyone with more than 4 DI wins other than UNH.

They have a terrible set of wins.

So if losing to good teams gets you into the playoffs, that's great. But I don't think losers should be rewarded.

[ToTheLeft]

Winning over CSU, CCU, and Stony Brook does not make a decent argument. Try again.

Seriously? Who did W and M beat other than UNH? Please, tell me. I am anxious to hear why Norfolk State and Rhode Island are BETTER than CCU or SBU or CSU.

[knucklehead]

Current Sagarin:
Elon - 13
WM - 8
Maine - 10
Liberty - 17

GPI going into this weekend:
Elon - 11
WM - 12
Maine - 14
Liberty - 27T

Now, WM, Elon and Maine will drop and Liberty will rise, but on monday the order will likely be WM, Maine, Elon and Liberty.

Best Win

WM - @UNH (#10)
Maine - @UMass (unranked)
Liberty - Elon (#17)
Elon - Furman (unranked)

Bad Loses

WM - none, but JMU was blowout
Maine - none, but took 2OT to put away Hofstra at home
Liberty - Presbyterian
Elon - none, but blown out by Wofford and @Liberty

Common Opponents

Maine and WM
JMU 10-24, 24-48
UNH 24-28, 38-34
UD 27-10, 27-3
UR 17-44, 20-23 OT
URI 37-7, 34-24
NU 20-0, 38-17
Totals = 135 - 113, 181 - 149, Advantage WM

WM and Liberty
VMI 52-17, 38-26, Advantage WM

WM and Elon
UR 20-23 OT, 10-28, Advantage WM

I am so glad you keep posting that since I haven't read it the first 73 times!xoopsx

[TribeNomad]

Your "Golden Ticket" is known as the Big South.......if you played our schedule we would not be having this discussion. If you guys get in and
play JMU I look forward to having this discussion again, once they are able to cool down the scoreboard after the overload.

[ToTheLeft]

Your "Golden Ticket" is known as the Big South.......if you played our schedule we would not be having this discussion. If you guys get in and
play JMU I look forward to having this discussion again, once they are able to cool down the scoreboard after the overload.

Yeah, I am sure we couldn't beat Northeastern, Rhode Island, or Towson. They're such amazing quality opponents.

[knucklehead]

Your "Golden Ticket" is known as the Big South.......if you played our schedule we would not be having this discussion. If you guys get in and
play JMU I look forward to having this discussion again, once they are able to cool down the scoreboard after the overload.

Sounds a lot like what Elon fans and other "experts" around here said about the Elon game Last week!

[knucklehead]

Seriously? Who did W and M beat other than UNH? Please, tell me. I am anxious to hear why Norfolk State and Rhode Island are BETTER than CCU or SBU or CSU.


Don't forget their 4 'Quality Losses". It doesn't matter how great your conference is if you lose to all the quality teams in it!

[TribeNomad]

If you get in---we will all be laughing about the butt kicking you will receive....keep up the talking, your day will come..........

[TribeNomad]

Oh I forgot, we lost to NC State-----they played Presbyterian tough too.

[knucklehead]

Oh I forgot, we lost to NC State-----they played Presbyterian tough too.


Woo Hoo, yet another of your quality losses! You have so many!

[ToTheLeft]

Oh I forgot, we lost to...

If losses counted, then the Lions would be the best team in the NFL.

Wins count, and you guys have one that's worth half a crap. That's it.

[TribeNomad]

I'm done on this post-----just like you will be done by the first quarter at JMU..........

[Skjellyfetti]

Wins count, and you guys have one that's worth half a crap. That's it.

And Liberty has one win that is worth 1/4 of a crap. UNH is going to the playoffs... Elon isn't.

[knucklehead]

I'm done on this post-----just like you will be done by the first quarter at JMU..........


YAY! So, even you think we are in and you are out!

xlolx

[ASU_MBA]

Liberty has 2 wins against community college teams and 2 loses against horrible teams and a win against an overrated and depressed elon team.
But let them in
I would love nothing better than to see the falwell clan get blownout. Send them to boone or send them to harrisonburg.. I will love to see all the excuses on how they deserved to be in when they lose by 30 next week. I thought liberty could beat elon but jmu and asu on the road is another galaxy.
Will they blame a loss on the gays? Or teletubbies?

[TheTribeHasSpoken]

Seriously? Who did W and M beat other than UNH? Please, tell me. I am anxious to hear why Norfolk State and Rhode Island are BETTER than CCU or SBU or CSU.Going into the final week:

W&M wins other than UNH AVG GPI: 61.167

Liberty wins other than Elon + DII wins AVG GPI: 66.571

So that may look sorta close, but UNH on the road is much better than Elon at home and you have 2 DII wins that can't be factored in.

Almost a good point, though.

[joecooll6]

William and Mary has not beaten anyone with more than 4 DI wins other than UNH.

They have a terrible set of wins.

So if losing to good teams gets you into the playoffs, that's great. But I don't think losers should be rewarded.

Losing to good teams doesn't get you into the playoffs, but losing to bad teams keeps you from getting to the playoffs.

[joecooll6]

Woo Hoo, yet another of your quality losses! You have so many!

The reason why quality losses is an arguement is because of your two BAD LOSSES. It looks pretty bad for you by comparison.

[joecooll6]

If losses counted, then the Lions would be the best team in the NFL.

Wins count, and you guys have one that's worth half a crap. That's it.

So do you, so moving on to all the other criteria......yup looks like Bill and Mary win just about all of them.

[WMTribe90]

Based on current Sagarin ratings.

The average Sagarin rating for WM's 11 DI opponents is 129.9.
The average Sagarin rating for LU's 10 DI opponents is 171.5.

The average Sagarin rating for WM's 7 DI wins is 161.4.
The average sagarin rating for LU's 8 DI wins is also 171.5

The average Sagarin rating for WM's four loses is 50.25.
The average Sagarin rating for LU's two loses is also 171.5 (wow).

No way around the fact that WM has played the tougher schedule, has better wins, and no bad loses.

[ToTheLeft]

Of course all the crap CAA teams you play are gonna have better Sagarins. EVERY TEAM YOU PLAY gets the right to be beaten up by Richmond, JMU, UNH, and Nova, ya know, the GREAT teams in the CAA. Sagarin rankings are bogus, anyways. They have NIU on the playoff bubble, when they are clearly not only in, but fighting for a seed.

But keep trying, maybe you'll find something other than one win and "good losses" to hang your hat on.

You beat Towson... great, you know who else did? Coastal Carolina. Who you claim to be a crap team, but they beat Towson by more than you did.

You beat Rhody... great. You know who else did? Fordham, who couldn't even hang in the PL.

It's amazing the drop in average rank when you go from "Schedule" to "Wins". It's almost as if you didn't beat anyone good... oh, wait. Aside from UNH, you beat the worst of the worst from 3 different conferences. The CAA, BSC, and MEAC.

[jcmanson]

I love it. We heard all the same crap last week except it was that we couldn't beat Elon and wouldn't even stay in the game with them. Now, we were able to beat a "depressed" Elon team!!! Seriously, what were they depressed about? Having a chance to win and make the playoffs??? xlolx

[knucklehead]

I've tired of this repetitive thread. LU will be in at 7pm tonight!
Later.

[JMU Newbill]

if Liberty doesn't get in.... I wonder who will get matched up with JMU.... cause it won't be W&M

[joecooll6]

Of course all the crap CAA teams you play are gonna have better Sagarins. EVERY TEAM YOU PLAY gets the right to be beaten up by Richmond, JMU, UNH, and Nova, ya know, the GREAT teams in the CAA. Sagarin rankings are bogus, anyways. They have NIU on the playoff bubble, when they are clearly not only in, but fighting for a seed.

But keep trying, maybe you'll find something other than one win and "good losses" to hang your hat on.

You beat Towson... great, you know who else did? Coastal Carolina. Who you claim to be a crap team, but they beat Towson by more than you did.

You beat Rhody... great. You know who else did? Fordham, who couldn't even hang in the PL.

It's amazing the drop in average rank when you go from "Schedule" to "Wins". It's almost as if you didn't beat anyone good... oh, wait. Aside from UNH, you beat the worst of the worst from 3 different conferences. The CAA, BSC, and MEAC.

Northern Illinois is not in the FCS at all.

That being said, I've made my point and I'll make it again.

You both have 1 good win and a bunch of iffy ones.

Your losses are much worse than Billy and Mary's. Losing to good teams doesnt get you in, but losing to bad teams can keep you out. The losses are the main difference between your and their otherwise very similar resumes.

[ToTheLeft]

Northern Illinois is not in the FCS at all.

That being said, I've made my point and I'll make it again.

You both have 1 good win and a bunch of iffy ones.

Your losses are much worse than Billy and Mary's. Losing to good teams doesnt get you in, but losing to bad teams can keep you out. The losses are the main difference between your and their otherwise very similar resumes.

I Typoed... I meant UNI. I do that a lot... did it with New Hampshire yesterday.


And it's not even that similar. The wins they have are NOT AS GOOD as the wins we have. Their best win is better than our best win... but everything else is NOT.

[joecooll6]

I Typoed... I meant UNI. I do that a lot... did it with New Hampshire yesterday.


And it's not even that similar. The wins they have are NOT AS GOOD as the wins we have. Their best win is better than our best win... but everything else is NOT.

I disagree. In my opinion everyone in the Big South is not good, very similar to the bottom of the CAA. CSU is decent, everyone else is bad. Thats just a matter of personal opinion though.

Anyway, even if your wins are better, and I dont think they are, they are still against not so great teams regardless. Teams you both should beat. The level of your wins to theirs is certainly not as different as the level of your losses to theirs.

[joecooll6]

That being said, I'm off to the UNI basketball game. Liberty will probably make it, but I think Bill and Mary is more deserving. Its been fun arguing with you all. Later.

[ToTheLeft]

Coastal owned Towson. Liberty beat Coastal.

Rhody lost to PL next-to-last Fordham. SBU beat PL Champ Colgate by 20. LU shut out SBU and won by 30+.

Delaware lost to Furman. Elon beat Furman. Liberty beat Elon.

I know I am diggin' a little on these, but it's the best comparison we have. VMI is terrible, and both W and M and LU beat them.

[luflame15]

Liberty will make the playoffs.

[Appguy]

Liberty will make the playoffs.
keep telling yourself and maybe it'll happen xrolleyesx

[CJHawkeyes]

I wonder if someone will ever figure out how much better and simpler it would be to determine all playoff teams in a completely objective manner. So long as subjectivity is used, fans will continue to adopt any argument to justify their teams inclusion into the playoffs. With objective rules, there is no debate. Sure, someone might complain about the chosen rules, but if 10-2 versus Liberty's schedule is by definition greater than 7-4versus W&M's schedule (or vice versa), the team left out has no argument.

[TheTribeHasSpoken]

Coastal owned Towson. Liberty beat Coastal.

Rhody lost to PL next-to-last Fordham. SBU beat PL Champ Colgate by 20. LU shut out SBU and won by 30+.

Delaware lost to Furman. Elon beat Furman. Liberty beat Elon.

I know I am diggin' a little on these, but it's the best comparison we have. VMI is terrible, and both W and M and LU beat them.Liberty lost to Presbyterian. Presbyterian lost to VMI. Presbyterian sucks.

Just thought I would note that.

[ToTheLeft]

William and Mary lost 4 times. Liberty lost twice.

Just thought I would note that.

[Skjellyfetti]

I wonder if someone will ever figure out how much better and simpler it would be to determine all playoff teams in a completely objective manner. So long as subjectivity is used, fans will continue to adopt any argument to justify their teams inclusion into the playoffs. With objective rules, there is no debate. Sure, someone might complain about the chosen rules, but if 10-2 versus Liberty's schedule is by definition greater than 7-4versus W&M's schedule (or vice versa), the team left out has no argument.

Sounds like this:

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bcs_explained.html

xlolx ;)

[Syntax Error]

Sounds like this:http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php?blog=5&cat=231 though it is only one element that the FCS committee uses.

[CJHawkeyes]

Sounds like this:

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bcs_explained.html

xlolx ;)

The BCS poll is nothing like what I'm suggesting. For starters, the BCS poll is primarily driven by subjectivity. Furthermore, the objective portion of the BCS lacks transparency. Teams are blind to what is in their best interest.

[Dukie95]

Question:

If Liberty does make it, do you guys typically travel with the band?

[Tribe4SF]

Question:

If Liberty does make it, do you guys typically travel with the band?

OMG!!!xeekx A week's worth of band threads coming up!:D