That last at-large slot: to Liberty, or ...

[JaxSinfonian]

I see a lot of folks penning Liberty in for the final at-large spot. I'm not saying they're wrong to do so. The win over Elon was impressive, and should carry weight with the selection committee.

But ...

How about Jax State? Thanks to the way everything else fell today, Liberty & JSU seem to be the first two in line for that last bid. Will the committee take the Flames over the Gamecocks? Consider:

Discounting LU's DII wins, they're 8-2 (with a loss to Presbyterian). Jax State is 8-3. Liberty was #22 today, JSU #24. Liberty's last act: defeating the #12 team. JSU's: beating #18 (Tenn. St., a week ago). The combined records of the teams Liberty beat: 42-51. JSU's wins: 33-62. The Big South is a notch ahead of the OVC in GPI.

On paper, I'd give Liberty the edge. But it's close enough that Flames fans shouldn't write it in stone just yet. We all know the committee can do some interesting things on selection Sunday.

I wouldn't fault them for going with Liberty, but you'll forgive me for hoping they don't.

Thoughts?

<begin OVC-bashing in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...>

[Reign of Terrier]

What were JSU's losses? Liberty had a bad loss to PC.

It's an interesting argument but because no one is talking about it, they're probably not going to make it.

[JaxSinfonian]

What were JSU's losses? Liberty had a bad loss to PC.

31-30 to UT-Martin and 38-35 to Eastern Kentucky. Plus a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech (so call us 8-2 as well?)


It's an interesting argument but because no one is talking about it, they're probably not going to make it.

I know. Hence my post. :D

[danefan]

Jax State has no quality wins. Winning within the OVC isn't the quality that warrants an at-large. That will keep them out.

And its not OVC bashing, its the truth. The OVC is not a strong conference.

How and why should anyone get in but the winner of the AQ?

But I will say this: For one reason or another the committee has an affinity for the OVC. EIU got in last year and should not have. So nothing is impossible.

[danefan]

31-30 to UT-Martin and 38-35 to Eastern Kentucky. Plus a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech (so call us 8-2 as well?)



I know. Hence my post. :D

No, don't call you 8-2. You lost to a Div I team. It counts as a DI loss. 8-3.

[knucklehead]

At Georgia Tech 41-14
At Eastern Ky 38-35
At Ut Martin 31-30

[Reign of Terrier]

One more TD in each of your games and you would be considered "HOT".

Oh well, that's football

[BDKJMU]

No, don't call you 8-2. You lost to a Div I team. It counts as a DI loss. 8-3.

Losing to a I-A isn't the same as losing to a I-AA, especially when one team didn't even play one. You think the comittee will ignore that?

Both teams are 8-2 vs I-AA. Liberty beat a Elon team that was 8-4 vs I-AA. JSU beat a Tenn State team that was 8-4 vs I-AA.

I'd give Liberty a slight edge, but its close. Its not like if JSU got the bid over Liberty Liberty could say they were screwed.

[Reign of Terrier]

Losing to a I-A isn't the same as losing to a I-AA, especially when one team didn't even play one. You think the comittee will ignore that?

Both teams are 8-2 vs I-AA. Liberty beat a Elon team that was 8-4 vs I-AA. JSU beat a Tenn State team that was 8-4 vs I-AA.

I'd give Liberty a slight edge, but its close. Its not like if JSU got the bid over Liberty Liberty could say they were screwed.

Like I said before, JSU scores another touchdown in the games they lose and they are probably top 15 and 10-1 while going to the playoffs.

[JaxSinfonian]

Jax State has no quality wins. Winning within the OVC isn't the quality that warrants an at-large. That will keep them out.

And its not OVC bashing, its the truth. The OVC is not a strong conference.

If getting second place in the OVC isn't worth an at-large, is winning the Big South? I don't think anyone would call it a strong conference, either. Close call, in my book.

I don't know how you define "quality win," but I'd count the victory over Tennessee State, who finished 8-4. Yeah, it's the only one we've got, but it counts.

If you can agree to both of those points, I won't accuse you of OVC-bashing.


How and why should anyone get in but the winner of the AQ?See my original post. I'm not saying it's hands-down the right choice. I'm not even saying it's likely. I'm just saying there's a reasonable case to be made.

To counter your question: How and why should a Big South winner, with no auto-bid, get in?


But I will say this: For one reason or another the committee has an affinity for the OVC. EIU got in last year and should not have. So nothing is impossible.

Agreed, to a point. There was a case to be made for EIU, and that's why they got in. As long as humans are calling the shots they'll make subjective decisions. That's what I'm pinning my hopes on.

[Eaglegus2]

Losing to a I-A isn't the same as losing to a I-AA, especially when one team didn't even play one. You think the comittee will ignore that?

Both teams are 8-2 vs I-AA. Liberty beat a Elon team that was 8-4 vs I-AA. JSU beat a Tenn State team that was 8-4 vs I-AA.

I'd give Liberty a slight edge, but its close. Its not like if JSU got the bid over Liberty Liberty could say they were screwed.

Then, Liberty could become a member of the NCAA FCS Selection Committee : Screwed U 2 Club. xthumbsupx xnodx xnodx xnodx

[EKUSteve]

Like I said before, JSU scores another touchdown in the games they lose and they are probably top 15 and 10-1 while going to the playoffs.

Yeah, I doubt Ryan Perilloux threw five picks against anyone else like he did against EKU (and you still scored 35 against us).

[Reign of Terrier]

Then, Liberty could become a member of the NCAA FCS Selection Committee : Screwed U 2 Club. xthumbsupx xnodx xnodx xnodx

They will never be "The King Of Selection Committee Plunders" like Wofford is. It's just not possible.

[BDKJMU]

Then, Liberty could become a member of the NCAA FCS Selection Committee : Screwed U 2 Club. xthumbsupx xnodx xnodx xnodx

Dude, they scheduled TWO Div 2 teams. They DIDN'T play a I-A. They lost to PRESBYTERIAN

They have ONE quality win.

Like I said, I would give Liberty a SLIGHT edge. But NO, if Liberty doesn't get in and JSU did, Liberty WOULDN'T ge granted membership to the Screwed U 2 Clubxsmiley_wix

[JaxSinfonian]

Like I said before, JSU scores another touchdown in the games they lose and they are probably top 15 and 10-1 while going to the playoffs.

Better yet, JSU doesn't send a long snap over the punter's head and through the back of the end zone at Martin, and doesn't throw an interception at the EKU 33 on 2nd & 4 with two minutes to play, and we're conference champions talking about the Colonels' chances for an at-large.

Sigh ...

[JaxSinfonian]

No, don't call you 8-2. You lost to a Div I team. It counts as a DI loss. 8-3.

Fine. Boosts our strength of schedule compared to Liberty's, then.

[nutterlyattled]

i wouldnt give jsu the edge, but i think the fact they werent blown out in the fcs is going to help them, i think it is a coin toss.... it may even come down to who is closer for a matchup, or larger fanbase, little things like that, that FCS seems to be obsessed with

[Grabholdofyosef]

I think W&M will make it over both JXstate and Liberty.

[WMTribe90]

WM has a better resume than Liberty or JSU. So does Maine for that matter.

[EKUSteve]

To be a fly on the wall when this discussion goes on tomorrow in the committee meeting.

[JaxSinfonian]

WM has a better resume than Liberty or JSU. So does Maine for that matter.

That may be. But I'll bet the committee takes a second OVC team before they'll take a fifth from the CAA. Isn't one quarter of the bracket from a single conference enough?

[Anovafan]

I think this is the biggest debate of the playoffs. This is a really tough one. I think the committee will go with the 10 win Liberty team over the 3 loss Jax. St. team, but I would not be surprised to see Jax. St. in. They may look to the Perrilloux factor, especially if they get sent to the ESPN game against JMU, Montana or App. St. It would make for good TV to have Perrilloux on ESPN for that first round game.

[Anovafan]

That may be. But I'll bet the committee takes a second OVC team before they'll take a fifth from the CAA. Isn't one quarter of the bracket from a single conference enough?

No way 5 teams from the CAA get in this year.

[WMTribe90]

No way 5 teams from the CAA get in this year.

Where have I heard this before...

[Anovafan]

Where have I heard this before...

I'll buy you a case of beer at the next VU-W&M game if it happens, deal? That means you gotta travel to Villanova.....xlolx

[IaaScribe]

Here's where JSU is going to run into problems ... Liberty is the champion of a conference that is ranked ahead of the OVC in the GPI. JSU finished third (or tied for second) in the OVC.

[JaxSinfonian]

I think the committee will go with the 10 win Liberty team over the 3 loss Jax. St. team, but I would not be surprised to see Jax. St. in.

We do have at least one spelled-out item in the selection guidelines going for us: "The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents."

Here's hoping they do.

[Weems]

UT Martin has the tie breaker over JSU for 2nd in the OVC. If you think the second place team in the OVC should go, then that would be UTM, not Jax State. We controlled our destiny, and ended up losing. the two IAA teams we lost to were TSU in OT, and EKU(blocked last second GW
FG :().

[JaxSinfonian]

UT Martin has the tie breaker over JSU for 2nd in the OVC.

Good point. I just glanced at the standings at ESPN in a hurry and we were listed first. My bad

Whispered: But for the sake of talking a second OVC into the playoffs, can't we just let 'em think we're second for now?

[SuperJon]

Here's where JSU is going to run into problems ... Liberty is the champion of a conference that is ranked ahead of the OVC in the GPI. JSU finished third (or tied for second) in the OVC.

I was wondering how long it would be before someone said this.

Liberty: Back to back undefeated conference champion in a conference ranked higher than the OVC.

Liberty: Eight spots higher in the GPI than Jax St.

Liberty: Ranked the entire year.

Liberty: Under two hours away from the #1 seed.

[JaxSinfonian]

Liberty: Back to back undefeated conference champion in a conference ranked higher than the OVC.
Liberty: Eight spots higher in the GPI than Jax St.
Liberty: Ranked the entire year.
Liberty: Under two hours away from the #1 seed.

Jax State: Played an all-DI schedule. And as long as we're factoring in previous years, that's true for the last four seasons.

We sure won't settle this here. I propose a play-in game, say, Wednesday night. Spartanburg looks to be about halfway. Play at Wofford's field? :D

[PhoenixSupreme]

You should play your proposed play-in game over at Montana. It would be interesting lol:D xlolx

[JaxSinfonian]

It took some doing, but I've got some brackets worked out, and they don't change much regardless of who gets the last spot. I think the fourth seed could go to either Cal Poly or Villanova; my pairings for them stand regardless.

So, if that spot goes to Jax State, the bracket could look like this:

#1 JMU vs. Wofford
SC State vs. Jax State

#4 Cal Poly vs. Weber State
Villanova vs. Colgate

#2 App. State vs. Richmond
SIU vs. EKU

#3 Montana vs. Texas State
UNI vs. UNH

The #1 end of that bracket is a little top-heavy, and JSU-SC St. is a little bottom-heavy, but I paired them with an eye toward geography. With Richmond, App. St. and Nova off the table, Wofford is the only team in the tourney closer than 400 miles to JMU.

If it's Liberty, the only thing I'd change would be the top end of the bracket:

#1 JMU vs. Liberty
Wofford vs. SC State

#4 Cal Poly vs. Weber State
Villanova vs. Colgate

#2 App. State vs. Richmond
SIU vs. EKU

#3 Montana vs. Texas State
UNI vs. UNH

And all of this bears absolutely no resemblance whatsoever to what the committee will announce tonight, most likely.

Thoughts?

[R.A.]

FAMU's a hot team right now that's flying under the radar.

[JaxSinfonian]

FAMU's a hot team right now that's flying under the radar.

Hmm. At 9-3, they look pretty good, and had a solid win over BC yesterday. But they're sitting well outside the top 25, and have significant ground to make up in the GPI.

[ekufbfan]

Get over the OVC bashing. Thr OVC rep has been sent on the road the majority of the time the last number of years. You send us to the top seed at their place and we have a hill to climb, send a 3-4 or even 5 (as some have hinted may get in)CAA team to Richmond and we win. IMO it is as simple as that in explaining the OVC's record.

Take a look at Samford for OVC /So Con bias. They were a bottom feeder most of the time in the OVC,
the first year in So Conf, they win a few games and suddenly their stock goes up, just because of the So Conf association. This is not So Conf bashing, it is what I see as OVC/any other conf bias.

[JaxSinfonian]

Take a look at Samford for OVC /So Con bias. They were a bottom feeder most of the time in the OVC,
the first year in So Conf, they win a few games and suddenly their stock goes up, just because of the So Conf association. This is not So Conf bashing, it is what I see as OVC/any other conf bias.

I've been amused/perturbed to see this, as well. We join the OVC in 2003 coming from the old SFL, win the league two straight years, and it supposedly just proves the OVC's weakness. Samford leaves the OVC for the SoCon, wins a few games and it supposedly shows how much they've improved.

For the record, Samford was 4-7 in 2007, 2-6 in the OVC. Same coaching staff, new league: They're 6-5 overall, 4-4 in conference. No doubt Pat Sullivan is improving things, but is he a miracle worker? More likey it just proves what I've long believed: the SoCon's middle-of-the-pack and cellar teams are about as good as the OVC's. It's just that their best teams are better than our best teams.

[LehighFan11]

#1 JMU vs. Wofford
SC State vs. Jax State


Please save us from this set up. I'm not saying JSU doesn't deserve to get in but they shouldn't get to play SCST. JMU gets Wofford and SCST gets JSU? makes no sense.

[OVC Fan]

Too bad they can't take Liberty and Jax State. Had Liberty beat Presby, it wouldn't even be a talking point because they'd be in for sure. I think the only difference is that JSU played a full Division I schedule.

JSU's 2 non-conference FCS opponents (Alabama A&M and UTC) weren't great, but JSU beat them by an average of 27.5 points. They did what they had to do. They scheduled FCS teams and they beat them solidly. It is a little different for Liberty because they have more non-conference's to schedule; but at the same time, they have more power over who they play that way. JSU played the obligatory FBS game and then had to find two games.

Elon is a better win in the non-conference slate, but JSU doesn't have any bad losses. 4 points in 2 FCS losses; one Perrilloux throws five picks, the other a safety and missed extra point doom them in the pouring rain (both on the road).

[AlphaSigMD]

Please save us from this set up. I'm not saying JSU doesn't deserve to get in but they shouldn't get to play SCST. JMU gets Wofford and SCST gets JSU? makes no sense.

Agreed. A Jax St. - SCST would be the pillow fight of the bracket. It's doubtful that either of those teams could win against anyone in the bracket other than Texas State or maybe Colgate.

[JaxSinfonian]

JMU gets Wofford and SCST gets JSU? makes no sense.

The guidelines say teams should be paired based on proximity, not that higher-ranked teams should get to play seemingly weaker opponents. This is not March Madness. The pairing makes sense based on the rules.

Besides, a JMU-Wofford game should be far more entertaining than a matchup with JSU or SC State, shouldn't it? Assuming Both JSU and SC St. would be big underdogs against the #1 seed, pairing them against eachother would be more fun to watch, too. Pillow fight, AlphaSig? That sounds like smack. Both programs earned their way into the playoff discussion. I don't think they'd show up to any game unarmed.