WM Is The Best Available Bubble Team

[WMTribe90]

Let me preface my post by saying that I fully expected WM to be out of the playoff picture if we lost to UR today and that while the Tribe is much improved I'm not sure we're a playoff quality team. However, things have broken our way and out of the teams on the bubble I believe we have the best resume. If the committee objectively executes its duty and truly picks the best team available regardless of conference I think we sneak into the playoffs.

In my mind it comes down to W&M, Maine, Elon, and Liberty.

GPI going into this weekend:
Elon - 11
WM - 12
Maine - 14
Liberty - 27T

Now, WM, Elon and Maine will drop and Liberty will rise, but on monday the order will likely be WM, Maine, Elon and Liberty.

Best Win

WM - @UNH (#11, won today)
Maine - @UMass (unranked, won today)
Liberty - Elon (#12, lost today)
Elon - Furman (#20, lost today)

Bad Loses

WM - none, but JMU was blowout
Maine - none, but took 2OT to put away Hofstra at home
Liberty - Presbyterian
Elon - none, but blown out by Wofford and @Liberty

Common Opponents

Maine and WM
JMU 10-24, 24-48
UNH 24-28, 38-34
UD 27-10, 27-3
UR 17-44, 20-23 OT
URI 37-7, 34-24
NU 20-0, 38-17
Totals = 135 - 113, 181 - 149, Advantage WM

WM and Liberty
VMI 52-17, 38-26, Advantage WM

WM and Elon
UR 20-23 OT, 10-28, Advantage WM

Analysis

WM has seven DI wins and has a win over #11 and playoff bound UNH at UNH. WM lost by 10 to NCST (ACC). WM lost by 10 to Villanova (#6) with our back-up QB, #1 JMU by 24 and to #7 UR by 3. WM has no bad losses, plays in the toughest division of the toughest FCS conference. VMI and NSU are not strong OOC opponents, but WM's margin of victory was what you would expect from a playoff caliber team. WM has lost their last two after winning five straight, but both loses were to top ten teams.

Maine has 8 DI wins, no wins over ranked or playoff-bound opponents, and one of their wins was against non-scholarship Iona. Maine has won 7 of their last 8. The north division of the CAA is weaker than the south, but the committee could favor a second north team over a fourth south team.

Elon has 8 DI wins, but after Furman's loss today, none of their wins will likely be over ranked opponents. Elon lost three of their last four games.

Liberty has 8 DI wins and is the only team in consideration that won today. However, Liberty's SOS is not on par with the other bubble teams. The committee may like to give the Big South champ a playoff spot, but they could just as easily deny Liberty for scheduling two sub-DI opponents. They have a bad loss to Presbyterian, truthfully a game a playoff squad shouldn't lose. Additionally, a 3 point win over YSU, 5 point win over CCU, and a 14 point loss to Lafayette does not look like the resume of a playoff caliber team. One of those by itself could be explained away, but not all four IMO.

WM may not be playoff caliber, but by virtually every objective standard they appear to be the best team available.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Having played 3 of the teams you mentioned, I agree with you.

That said, I expect Liberty will get in on the strength of their gutsy win today.

[GannonFan]

Geez, sorry you spent all that time writing that. It doesn't look good for the Tribe with Liberty winning the way they did today. That Elon/Liberty game, like the W&M/Richmond game, was a play-in game. You guys had to take care of business against Richmond. W&M was good, but W&M is the 5th best team in the CAA and 5 CAA teams aren't getting in this year. I suppose there's a smidgen of a chance, but I wouldn't be worried about planning something else to do next weekend.

[Dukie95]

They have a bad loss to Presbyterian, truthfully a game a playoff squad shouldn't lose.

Move that from the Elon section to the Liberty section.

[WMTribe90]

Geez, sorry you spent all that time writing that. It doesn't look good for the Tribe with Liberty winning the way they did today. That Elon/Liberty game, like the W&M/Richmond game, was a play-in game. You guys had to take care of business against Richmond. W&M was good, but W&M is the 5th best team in the CAA and 5 CAA teams aren't getting in this year. I suppose there's a smidgen of a chance, but I wouldn't be worried about planning something else to do next weekend.

I thought you were a fan of long-winded posts GF?

As to the bolded sentence, lots of people, you included, were saying the exact same thing last year.

The committee is tasked with picking the best available team regardless of conference. Not the best team available that won their last game. What if Liberty had played VMI today instead of Elon. I'm sure the committee will give a little extra weight to winning big under pressure, but its silly to suggest that somehow erases the deficiencies in Liberty's overall resume.

[WMTribe90]

Move that from the Elon section to the Liberty section.

Done, thanks.

[Reign of Terrier]

It all depends if Liberty gets in.

[Hansel]

how many teams have been selected for the playoffs after losing their last two games?

[danefan]

Someone else said this in a different thread:

Ask yourself: If you were a coach, which team would you rather play? William & Mary or Liberty?

I'd say Liberty in a heartbeat. That, to me, means W&M is the stronger team.

If they don't get in, they have reason to be disappointed.

[tribe_pride]

how many teams have been selected for the playoffs after losing their last two games?

Not sure any but how many teams have had the #1 and #7 teams in the FCS as their last 2 games.

[GannonFan]

I thought you were a fan of long-winded posts GF?

As to the bolded sentence, lots of people, you included, were saying the exact same thing last year.

The committee is tasked with picking the best available team regardless of conference. Not the best team available that won their last game. What if Liberty had played VMI today instead of Elon. I'm sure the committee will give a little extra weight to winning big under pressure, but its silly to suggest that somehow erases the deficiencies in Liberty's overall resume.

Yeah, a 7-4 UNH got in last year, but a 10-2 Liberty team that just stomped the SoCon's #3 team the last week of the season after the CAA team in question just lost it's last 2 games didn't exist. And the committee has never chosen just the best teams available - how else can you explain the numerous times the OVC has gotten an at-large in the past 10 years? xlolx

[IaaScribe]

The thing is, if W&M gets left out, it has no gripe. You have a chance to earn a spot with a win at home, get it done.

If Liberty gets left out, it has little gripe. Don't lose to freaking Presbyterian.

[WMTribe90]

If we don't get in I'll be disappointed in the committee because they would have abandoned their own selection guidelines.

Losing the last two games hurts no doubt, but losing in OT to a top ten (when your All-Conference QB has 7 turnovers) is not the end of the world (though it felt like it at the time).

[WMTribe90]

The thing is, if W&M gets left out, it has no gripe. You have a chance to earn a spot with a win at home, get it done.

If Liberty gets left out, it has little gripe. Don't lose to freaking Presbyterian.

Liberty shouldn't have scheduled two non DI teams. They should have beaten Presbyterian.

WM should have won today.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda...

The committee's task is to look at what is. An objective view at the resumes points to WM as the best available at-large team to fill the final spot. Part of me would like to Liberty get a chance, but WM shouldn't be penalized for playing the tougher schedule.

[BDKJMU]

Let me preface my post by saying that I fully expected WM to be out of the playoff picture if we lost to UR today and that while the Tribe is much improved I'm not sure we're a playoff quality team. However, things have broken our way and out of the teams on the bubble I believe we have the best resume. If the committee objectively executes its duty and truly picks the best team available regardless of conference I think we sneak into the playoffs.

In my mind it comes down to W&M, Maine, Elon, and Liberty.

GPI going into this weekend:
Elon - 11
WM - 12
Maine - 14
Liberty - 27T

Now, WM, Elon and Maine will drop and Liberty will rise, but on monday the order will likely be WM, Maine, Elon and Liberty.

Best Win

WM - @UNH (#11, won today)
Maine - @UMass (unranked, won today)
Liberty - Elon (#12, lost today)
Elon - Furman (#20, lost today)

Bad Loses

WM - none, but JMU was blowout
Maine - none, but took 2OT to put away Hofstra at home
Liberty - Presbyterian
Elon - none, but blown out by Wofford and @Liberty

Common Opponents

Maine and WM
JMU 10-24, 24-48
UNH 24-28, 38-34
UD 27-10, 27-3
UR 17-44, 20-23 OT
URI 37-7, 34-24
NU 20-0, 38-17
Totals = 135 - 113, 181 - 149, Advantage WM

WM and Liberty
VMI 52-17, 38-26, Advantage WM

WM and Elon
UR 20-23 OT, 10-28, Advantage WM

Analysis

WM has seven DI wins and has a win over #11 and playoff bound UNH at UNH. WM lost by 10 to NCST (ACC). WM lost by 10 to Villanova (#6) with our back-up QB, #1 JMU by 24 and to #7 UR by 3. WM has no bad losses, plays in the toughest division of the toughest FCS conference. VMI and NSU are not strong OOC opponents, but WM's margin of victory was what you would expect from a playoff caliber team. WM has lost their last two after winning five straight, but both loses were to top ten teams.

Maine has 8 DI wins, no wins over ranked or playoff-bound opponents, and one of their wins was against non-scholarship Iona. Maine has won 7 of their last 8. The north division of the CAA is weaker than the south, but the committee could favor a second north team over a fourth south team.

Elon has 8 DI wins, but after Furman's loss today, none of their wins will likely be over ranked opponents. Elon lost three of their last four games.

Liberty has 8 DI wins and is the only team in consideration that won today. However, Liberty's SOS is not on par with the other bubble teams. The committee may like to give the Big South champ a playoff spot, but they could just as easily deny Liberty for scheduling two sub-DI opponents. They have a bad loss to Presbyterian, truthfully a game a playoff squad shouldn't lose. Additionally, a 3 point win over YSU, 5 point win over CCU, and a 14 point loss to Lafayette does not look like the resume of a playoff caliber team. One of those by itself could be explained away, but not all four IMO.

WM may not be playoff caliber, but by virtually every objective standard they appear to be the best team available.

There should be a 5th team in the comparison, JSU. Comparing them to Liberty, they're pretty close:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/clubhouse?teamId=55

JSU compared to the Fighting Falwells. Both teams are 8-2 vs I-AA (JSU also lost to GA Tech). Liberty beat a Elon team that was 8-4 vs I-AA. JSU beat a Tenn State team that was 8-4 vs I-AA.

[IaaScribe]

To be fair, if this was a normal 11-game season, a second DII would never have been scheduled.

[WMTribe90]

Yeah, a 7-4 UNH got in last year, but a 10-2 Liberty team that just stomped the SoCon's #3 team the last week of the season after the CAA team in question just lost it's last 2 games didn't exist. And the committee has never chosen just the best teams available - how else can you explain the numerous times the OVC has gotten an at-large in the past 10 years?

You do realize the entire season counts, not just today or the last two weeks. I don't see you arguing Liberty has the better resume, funny.

[GannonFan]

You do realize the entire season counts, not just today or the last two weeks. I don't see you arguing Liberty has the better resume, funny.

Well, Liberty does have a 10-2 record while W&M is a 7-4 team, I did mention the record. That's a pretty significant part of the resume. Sure I think W&M is better, but it's not like the committee hasn't made decisions like this before and left teams like W&M at home while letting teams like Liberty in. Funny I don't see you mentioning that. :p

[WMTribe90]

Well, Liberty does have a 10-2 record while W&M is a 7-4 team


Actually, in the eyes of the committee Liberty has an 8-2 record compared to WM's 7-4.


Sure I think W&M is better, but it's not like the committee hasn't made decisions like this before and left teams like W&M at home while letting teams like Liberty in. Funny I don't see you mentioning that.

Guess you didn't read my first post too closely.


The committee may like to give the Big South champ a playoff spot

I freely admit Liberty is a sentimental favorite, fortunately the committe proved their objectivity last year when they selected UNH.

Now enough about WM, let discuss UD's playoff chances. :p

[TheTribeHasSpoken]

It is unfortunate that LU will get in, because they suck.

[charliej]

Geez, sorry you spent all that time writing that. It doesn't look good for the Tribe with Liberty winning the way they did today. That Elon/Liberty game, like the W&M/Richmond game, was a play-in game. You guys had to take care of business against Richmond. W&M was good, but W&M is the 5th best team in the CAA and 5 CAA teams aren't getting in this year. I suppose there's a smidgen of a chance, but I wouldn't be worried about planning something else to do next weekend.


I have to agree here.

[GannonFan]

Now enough about WM, let discuss UD's playoff chances. :p

Hey, you guys are more than welcome to hang out with us and watch the playoffs on TV - more than enough room on the couch. xthumbsupx

[MacThor]

Sorry but UR played their worst game of the year, by a long shot, and W&M still lost. This was a must-win game for a team with only 7 wins. I didn't see anything from the Tribe today that said "playoff team." Granted, I didn't see anything playoff-caliber from the Spiders today, either.

[WMTribe90]

Anybody want to make a case for Liberty over WM? I could see the committee giving the nod to Liberty is the SOS was equal or even close, since Liberty won today and are conference champs, but WM's resume is noticeably better and I think the committee will have a hard time ignoring this fact.

[WMTribe90]

bump

[tingly]

I was largely negative for Liberty, but picked them anyway. They had some embarrassingly close games that shouldn't have been, then beat up the one good team they played.

[Keeper]

xtwocentsx
Imo, no question W&M is a stronger team, but how eager is the committee for placing 4 teams from one 6-team division?
I can't see it happening.

[DB_Atlantic10]

Let me preface my post by saying that I fully expected WM to be out of the playoff picture if we lost to UR today and that while the Tribe is much improved I'm not sure we're a playoff quality team. However, things have broken our way and out of the teams on the bubble I believe we have the best resume. If the committee objectively executes its duty and truly picks the best team available regardless of conference I think we sneak into the playoffs.

In my mind it comes down to W&M, Maine, Elon, and Liberty.

GPI going into this weekend:
Elon - 11
WM - 12
Maine - 14
Liberty - 27T

Now, WM, Elon and Maine will drop and Liberty will rise, but on monday the order will likely be WM, Maine, Elon and Liberty.

Best Win

WM - @UNH (#11, won today)
Maine - @UMass (unranked, won today)
Liberty - Elon (#12, lost today)
Elon - Furman (#20, lost today)

Bad Loses

WM - none, but JMU was blowout
Maine - none, but took 2OT to put away Hofstra at home
Liberty - Presbyterian
Elon - none, but blown out by Wofford and @Liberty

Common Opponents

Maine and WM
JMU 10-24, 24-48
UNH 24-28, 38-34
UD 27-10, 27-3
UR 17-44, 20-23 OT
URI 37-7, 34-24
NU 20-0, 38-17
Totals = 135 - 113, 181 - 149, Advantage WM

WM and Liberty
VMI 52-17, 38-26, Advantage WM

WM and Elon
UR 20-23 OT, 10-28, Advantage WM

Analysis

WM has seven DI wins and has a win over #11 and playoff bound UNH at UNH. WM lost by 10 to NCST (ACC). WM lost by 10 to Villanova (#6) with our back-up QB, #1 JMU by 24 and to #7 UR by 3. WM has no bad losses, plays in the toughest division of the toughest FCS conference. VMI and NSU are not strong OOC opponents, but WM's margin of victory was what you would expect from a playoff caliber team. WM has lost their last two after winning five straight, but both loses were to top ten teams.

Maine has 8 DI wins, no wins over ranked or playoff-bound opponents, and one of their wins was against non-scholarship Iona. Maine has won 7 of their last 8. The north division of the CAA is weaker than the south, but the committee could favor a second north team over a fourth south team.

Elon has 8 DI wins, but after Furman's loss today, none of their wins will likely be over ranked opponents. Elon lost three of their last four games.

Liberty has 8 DI wins and is the only team in consideration that won today. However, Liberty's SOS is not on par with the other bubble teams. The committee may like to give the Big South champ a playoff spot, but they could just as easily deny Liberty for scheduling two sub-DI opponents. They have a bad loss to Presbyterian, truthfully a game a playoff squad shouldn't lose. Additionally, a 3 point win over YSU, 5 point win over CCU, and a 14 point loss to Lafayette does not look like the resume of a playoff caliber team. One of those by itself could be explained away, but not all four IMO.

WM may not be playoff caliber, but by virtually every objective standard they appear to be the best team available. Wow, professor Geary would be so proud of you.... xbowx But unfortunately my friend, the Tribe won't quite make it this year.

I'm pretty sure going into this weekend, the Committee was looking at 6 teams for the 3 remaining spots.....

W&M/Richmond
UNH/Maine and
Elon/Liberty...... and it all played out perfectly for them. With W&M losing, do you realize how much shufflling they would have to do to put the Tribe into the mix. I'm pretty sure the Committee were all in the bed by 10PM EST this year....the final choices were just too easy.

[DB_Atlantic10]

To be fair, if this was a normal 11-game season, a second DII would never have been scheduled. Actually you can blame JMU for your 2nd DII team...Liberty was scheduled to play JMU, but JMU cancelled due to an expected Fall break weekend....Fall break was cancelled for a longer Thanks Giving break and it was too late to reschedule....So I can't fault the Flames for having two DII games....At least the committee knows they made an attempt to schedule a tough CAA team.....

[whoanellie]

It is unfortunate that LU will get in, because they suck.

not yesterday

We did though

[bjtheflamesfan]

Ive had a chance to follow both William and Mary and Liberty this year (the station I work at carries the Tribe Radio Network, and Im an outgoing member of the Liberty University Marching Band). Having followed both teams this year I will say that William and Mary is a) in the tougher conference and b) had a tougher schedule this year. I also think that the loss to Presbyterian is a glaring consideration in the eyes of the committee. That said, they also remember the major backlash they got last year including a 4 loss UNH squad and giving the CAA 5 bids to the dance. Also, yesterday was the last chance many bubble teams had to send a message to the selection committee and no doubt that will weigh in as well. W&M had a chance to make a statement with a win over the #7 team in the country...and lost. Liberty had a chance to make a statement against the #12 team in the country...and dominated.

[Dukie95]

Actually you can blame JMU for your 2nd DII team...Liberty was scheduled to play JMU, but JMU cancelled due to an expected Fall break weekend....Fall break was cancelled for a longer Thanks Giving break and it was too late to reschedule....So I can't fault the Flames for having two DII games....At least the committee knows they made an attempt to schedule a tough CAA team.....

I believe they added Lafayette as the replacement.

[bjtheflamesfan]

Actually Lafayette was the replacement for NC Central who was supposed to play Liberty the weekend that ended up becoming the bye week.

[WildcatFan]

That said, they also remember the major backlash they got last year including a 4 loss UNH squad and giving the CAA 5 bids to the dance.

Actually I wouldn't use that as an example. I think they feel they looked pretty smart picking UNH last year seeing they were within seconds of knocking off the #1 team in the country.

[Dukie95]

The new TSN poll that has Liberty at #14 is going to help Liberty's case and W&M is out.

[Jerbearasu]

Not sure any but how many teams have had the #1 and #7 teams in the FCS as their last 2 games.

True, but if you are trying to make a statement that you deserve to be in the playoffs and you are proving that even at the end of the season you can't beat the top half that are going to be selected shouldn't the committee try to give someone else a shot to beat the top half?

[MacThor]

1)What major backlash?

2) No team with 3 conference losses has ever made the field, unless they had an FBS win.

3) I think the committee looks more at # of wins than "one bad loss." Heck if bad losses were so important, they could have kept UR out last year because they lost the coin flip for the AQ, and lost to Towson.

[Tribe4SF]

The new TSN poll that has Liberty at #14 is going to help Liberty's case and W&M is out.

The rating may be indicative of Liberty's chances, but it won't help them. The committee is already at work with its own rankings and criteria. TSN poll won't be part of discussion.

[Black and Gold Express]

W&M is dead for three reasons:


Losing close is still losing. There are no such things as "good losses" except to the desperate. They are not going to take an at-large team that is on a losing skid no matter who you lost to. Strike one.
Liberty is the one riding a big win. Winning as an underdog makes a better impression than losing does. Strike two.
This one is unfair but I believe it has merit. Liberty is simply the easier team to slot in there in terms of scheduling. They go to JMU, Richmond goes to ASU, and SC State plays Wofford in a nice regional matchup. W&M makes decisions more difficult. Who now goes to JMU? Probably SC State. But then is it W&M to Wofford and UR to ASU? The NCAA would lose money in this regards because if SC State is to be believed (and they outbid Wofford) you want them hosting a game if you can make it happen. Strike three, W&M is out.

[Tribe4SF]

I've been saying all along that no four loss team would get an at-large this year. I still think that is the case. While I believe my Tribe is one of the 16 best teams, I just don't see it happening.

[jcmanson]

The rating may be indicative of Liberty's chances, but it won't help them. The committee is already at work with its own rankings and criteria. TSN poll won't be part of discussion.

We may not know if it will factor in, but it certainly won't hurt LU. If the Big South was eligible for this auto bid the NEC has, then LU would meet all requirements if they were to finish in the top 16 by average amongst the GPI, Sports Network, and Coaches poll. The other requirements include beating at least 2 teams from autobid leagues, and Liberty has beaten 3 out of their 4 oppurtunities.

[JMUNJ08]

I was at the JMU/W&M game last weekend and was extremely worried about a team in W&M needing a signature win late in the year to get into the playoffs and to be in the driver's seat to win the CAA auto. Instead I saw a team that played us as poorly as Hofstra and UD in our house. Then they lose at home to end the season in a play-in game to UR.

Liberty was a long shot before the weekend started but the losses by Maine and W&M along with their HUGE win over Elon pencils them in as the 16th seed. Congratulations with your trip to Harrisonburg!

[WMTribe90]

Liberty may get in over WM, but no one has successfully argued that their resume is more deserving. And yes, Wm blew their chance yesterday, but I could just as easily argue that Liberty blew their chance when they lost to Presbyterian. If the committee is scientific and not emotional in their approach WM will be in the playoffs. Again, not saying that it will play out that way for sure.

[SoConisMyAntiDrug]

Liberty may get in over WM, but no one has successfully argued that their resume is more deserving. And yes, Wm blew their chance yesterday, but I could just as easily argue that Liberty blew their chance when they lost to Presbyterian. If the committee is scientific and not emotional in their approach WM will be in the playoffs. Again, not saying that it will play out that way for sure.

I agree with your point fully, you have to take strength of schedule into consideration. William and Mary has played a much rigorous schedule than Liberty and it should be that simple in making the decision. Liberty SHOULD not have schedule 2 D-II teams, while playing teams such as Maine, Elon, and William & Mary did not have one. William and Mary will should get it, but you never know, someone will be surprised because something may happen that we dont know

[AlphaSigMD]

If you were to take a hypothetical game between William and Mary and Liberty, I believe that W&M would win by 2 scores. However, they surprised me this weekend with a win over Elon that was more impressive than ASU's win over Elon (However, not as impressive as Wofford's). So that gets a little dicey because I've obviously underrated them in my mind all season due to their schedule and losses to Laf and Presby.

If W&M played in the the big south they would probably go undefeated and beat Laf. If Liberty played in the CAA week in week out, they would probably finish in the bottom. But once again, I might be underrating Liberty.

All in all, I think I'd rather not get 5 CAA teams in the mix for the championship because:
1. I'd like ASU to be able to play other/different/new teams in route to a possible 4th championship (3 CAA opponents last year was just plain ridiculous). Not saying that I don't want to play them because they are tough; I'd just like to see some different match-ups.

2. I'd rather not spend several days listening to the CAA ideologues wax poetic about how the CAA is the greatest conference in the history of the world.xthumbsupx xlolx

[SoConisMyAntiDrug]

I saw on another board that Elon still has a shot (which I think is insane) but think about it

Will the committee put 5 CAA teams in?

Does Liberty really deserve to go?

I think its gonna be interesting, but we will see

[AlphaSigMD]

No way does Elon get in over Liberty after the beating that Liberty put on Them yesterday. I wish they would though.