The Last At-Large

[danefan]

Looking like we have the following at-larges locked up

Villanova
UNH
Richmond
Montana
Cal Poly
Wofford
SIU/UNI (whichever doesn't get the MVFC AQ)


That leaves just one:

W&M
Maine
Liberty
Tennesee State
Jax State
Albany ;)
Holy Cross
Bethune Cookman
SDSU/NDSU winner



Any others I'm missing that may be in contention?

[UNH Fanboi]

W&M is the most deserving in my opinion because of their win over UNH, and all their losses are to playoff teams (and close losses too). But letting a fifth CAA in for the second year in a row might not fly politically (even though UNH was 7 seconds from upsetting UNI last year). I think any of the other bubble teams would get blown out in the first round.

[Hansel]

Isn't McNeese the auto if they win?

[TexasTerror]

Isn't McNeese the auto if they win?

Yes, with a TXST loss.

If they win with a TXST win, they have six wins against Div I teams (two vs sub-Div I teams) -- keep in mind, the hurricane stole a game, but not sure the NCAA committee will care.

[Reign of Terrier]

Isn't McNeese the auto if they win?

I believe Mcneese lost to Texas state and that would put them in the playoffs but I could be wrong.

[danefan]

Isn't McNeese the auto if they win?

I thought if McNeese and Texas State both win that Texas State wins the AQ because of the tiebreaker?

[danefan]

OK, so take McNeese off the at-large list. They have to win the AQ to get in.

[appstate1998]

W&M is the most deserving in my opinion because of their win over UNH, and all their losses are to playoff teams (and close losses too). But letting a fifth CAA in for the second year in a row might not fly politically (even though UNH was 7 seconds from upsetting UNI last year). I think any of the other bubble teams would get blown out in the first round.

I think the best team should get in regardless if they are the only team or the 10th team from their conference. My vote goes to W&M

[danefan]

The committee has publicly said that they do not consider how many teams from each conference get in.

[IaaScribe]

Looking like we have the following at-larges locked up

Villanova
UNH
Richmond
Montana
Cal Poly
Wofford
SIU/UNI (whichever doesn't get the MVFC AQ)


That leaves just one:

W&M - 7-4 probably won't get it done
Maine - 8-4, best win at UMass, no bad losses, lost at home in a play-in game. Probably no.
Liberty - 10-2, statement win to end season against a team that would have made the playoffs had it won, undefeated conference champion, bad loss at Presby
UT Martin - Didn't get to 7 DI wins.
Tennesee State - Loss to SEMO worse than Liberty's loss to Presby.
Jax State - 8-3, only quality win was over TSU, third place in OVC.
Albany ;) - 8-3, would have loved to see them beat UNH to get the auto
Holy Cross - 7-4, no great wins
Bethune Cookman - 3 losses, getting blown out by FAMU
SDSU/NDSU winner - both would have seven wins, but both would have at least four losses, and NDSU lost to the same YSU team at Stambaugh that Liberty beat



Any others I'm missing that may be in contention?

My thoughts are next to the teams in the quote.

Matter of elimination makes me think that spot will go to Liberty.

[danefan]

My thoughts are next to the teams in the quote.

Matter of elimination makes me think that spot will go to Liberty.

Thanks, and I'm taking UT Martin off the list. Forgot they only have 6 DI wins.

[IaaScribe]

Also, that SIU game is about to go to overtime. Are the Salukis in trouble if they lose to a 3-7 team on the last day of the season? I don't think so, but they'd probably have to sweat a bit.

[Dukie95]

RE: W&M (7-4) vs Liberty (10-2).

Liberty only has 8 DI wins and W&M has a FBS loss. So, in FCS, it's W&M (7-3) vs Liberty (8-2)

W&M has no loss as bad as PC. W&M has a win against playoff-bound UNH, Liberty has no wins against playoff teams.

Common opponent, VMI:
WM 52 VMI 17
LIB 38 VMI 26

[UNHWildCats]

I think people need to get used to the idea of a 5th CAA team again.

[theasushow]

so is elon officially out?

[ToTheLeft]

RE: W&M (7-4) vs Liberty (10-2).

Liberty only has 8 DI wins and W&M has a FBS loss. So, in FCS, it's W&M (7-3) vs Liberty (8-2)

W&M has no loss as bad as PC. W&M has a win against playoff-bound UNH, Liberty has no wins against playoff teams.

Common opponent, VMI:
WM 52 VMI 17
LIB 38 VMI 26

WM hosted VMI. Liberty went to VMI.

[Edge316007]

Liberty finished strong, W&M didn't.

[Dukie95]

WM hosted VMI. Liberty went to VMI.

So? We're talking about VMI, right?

Edit: Sorry, didn't mean to offend, they beat PC. I shouldn't take them so lightly.

[ToTheLeft]

So? We're talking about VMI, right?

Still, the homefield advantage with the cadets HAS to be considered.

[danefan]

I think people need to get used to the idea of a 5th CAA team again.

I think I agree. W&M versus Liberty seems to be the last two and W&M is more deserving. However, Villanova was more deserving than EIU last year and Nova at Turkey dinner at home.

[Dukie95]

Still, the homefield advantage with the cadets HAS to be considered.

No team in the CAA would EVER say that, well, maybe Delaware. ;)

[IaaScribe]

What Liberty did to Elon is going to catch the eyes of people ... completely dominated the Phoenix for the entire game. I tend to agree, though, that the comparison will be against William & Mary.

W&M had two chances to play its way in and lost both (granted one was at JMU, so you can't ding them too much for that).

Both played similarly ranked opponents at home, one team won, one team lost. W&M plays in a much, much tougher league.

Will be interesting to see how the committee leans here. Not sure who I'd take.

[danefan]

VMI averages what about 7,000 a game? Negligible home field advantage if you ask me.

[UNH Fanboi]

The committee has publicly said that they do not consider how many teams from each conference get in.

I think it will always be a factor subconsciously. We'll see.

I'm trying to be as objective as possible, and I think W&M is the more deserving team. Think of it this way, if were you were the coach of a seeded team, would you rather play W&M or Liberty? I think any coach would say Liberty, meaning that W&M is the tougher team.

I'm kind of expecting Liberty to get the nod, and I couldn't really blame the committee too much. It is a pretty close call, and Liberty had an impressive win today.

[B&G]

If the committee were deadlocked, would they ever consider taking one team over another if it would make playoff pairings a little bit easier meaning less travel? I know publicly they wouldn't admit it but would it be a factor?

[crunifan]

SIU gets autobid for MVC

[Edge316007]

If the teams were close enough, anything could be a factor behind closed doors.

[ToTheLeft]

VMI averages what about 7,000 a game? Negligible home field advantage if you ask me.

You are oh so very ignorant to the home field advantage VMI has. You really have no idea. It has less to do with numbers and more to do with who they are and the way they organize themselves.

[JohnStOnge]

I realize that McNeese is a long shot if Texas State wins, but remember that the 7 D-I win thing is not a hard and fast rule. Somebody can look it up but it's a guideline that I think says something to the effect that a team that doesn't have 6 D-I wins "may" be in jeapordy. So having fewer than 6 D-I wins is not a disqualifier. So IF McNeese beats Central Arkansas and IF Texas State beats Sam Houston, it is not a completely foregone conclusion that McNeese can't get in.

IF that happens, McNeese will be a team that lost its three games by a combined 14 points, including an 8 point loss at North Carolina.

[Thundering_Herd]

Didn't Liberty lose to Presby? xsmhx
If NDSU wins, they should make the playoffs. They play in a tough MVFC and their fans are extremely loyal and travel very well (money talks).

[IaaScribe]

Didn't North Dakota State lose to Youngstown State?

North Dakota State will be nowhere near the playoff discussion.

[Sly Fox]

Didn't NDSU lose to YSU the week before the Penguins lost to who?

Liberty draws well and likely wouldn't have to travel far no matter where they are sent.

[Syntax Error]

elon

[IaaScribe]

surely you jest.

[art vandelay]

The committee has publicly said that they do not consider how many teams from each conference get in.

iv been saying this all along and no one listened to me. now they see the handwriting on the wall and are saying five again from the CAA. god! no one ever listens to me xmadx

[ToTheLeft]

Didn't Liberty lose to Presby? xsmhx
If NDSU wins, they should make the playoffs. They play in a tough MVFC and their fans are extremely loyal and travel very well (money talks).

Common opponent.

LU @ YSU: 31-28 W
NDSU @ YSU: 24-32 L

NDSU: 3 FCS Losses
LU: 2 FCS Losses

Impressive Wins:
LU: Elon
NDSU: SIU

---

I don't think you guys have a better case, you might PLAY in a tougher MVFC, but you didn't WIN in a tougher MVFC. A win at home against SIU is your only claim to fame.

[Eight Legger]

Let's face it, there isn't a 16th team worthy of the playoffs right now. Liberty has an awful loss and a mediocre loss and its only good win is against a team that didn't make the playoffs. W&M has no bad losses, a good win at UNH but only 7 wins. Elon really has no good wins, and some ok losses. I have no idea who I would pick.

[IaaScribe]

Roll a three-sided dice. :)

[B&G]

I'd pick the team that won this week with the pressure on the line. Clearly that is Liberty.

[ToTheLeft]

I'd pick the team that won this week with the pressure on the line. Clearly that is Liberty.

William and Mary, Elon, and Maine all proved that they didn't have what it takes to beat a playoff caliber team to lock up a spot in the field of 16.

Liberty did.

[tribe_pride]

If these are the last 5 teams for the spot (not sure), here is a comparison of the teams. Question is what do you want to emphasize.

WM - 7-4 (3 losses were to playoff teams and 1 to an FBS team - Best win was over a playoff team - UNH - end season with 2 straight losses after 5 game win streak)

Liberty - 10-2 (8-2 in D-I games - 1 horrible loss, 1 not great loss - Best win over Elon - 3 game win streak to end season)

Maine 8-4 (3 losses were to playoff teams and 1 to an FBS team - Best win UMass - end season with a loss after a 6 game win streak)

Elon 8-4 (3 losses to playoff teams and Liberty (potential playoff team), Best win - Furman - end with a loss and lose 3 of last 4)

NDSU 7-4 (if they win) - 1 loss to a playoff team, 1 loss to an FBS, 1 ok loss, 1 horrible loss, Best win was against a playoff team - SIU - end with a 4 game win streak)

[UNH Fanboi]

If NDSU wins, they should make the playoffs. They play in a tough MVFC and their fans are extremely loyal and travel very well (money talks).

They have 4 losses, with two of them to 6-5 and 4-8 teams. No way are they going to get in over Liberty AND W&M, who has the same number of losses but to much better teams.

[ToTheLeft]

LU actually has 2 less losses. One is just to a terrible team.

[tribe_pride]

William and Mary, Elon, and Maine all proved that they didn't have what it takes to beat a playoff caliber team to lock up a spot in the field of 16.

Liberty did.

If you are going with who has proven that they can beat a playoff team, the pick has to go to W&M.

[IaaScribe]

Just for history's sake ... In 2006, the Big South had an undefeated champion with two losses in Coastal Carolina that spent the entire season ranked in the top 25 and had a very questionable loss at home to 5-6 Elon to open the year. The Chants also lost to 3-8 Georgia Southern on the road.

Coastal had a signature win (against Furman) at home, went unbeaten in the league and made the field. So there's precedent, which will help any Big South team with a similar resume.

Something to think about.

[Dukie95]

William and Mary, Elon, and Maine all proved that they didn't have what it takes to beat a playoff caliber team to lock up a spot in the field of 16.

Liberty did.

Yet, W&M is the only one with a win against a playoff team.

[Dukie95]

Just for history's sake ... In 2006, the Big South had an undefeated champion with two losses in Coastal Carolina that spent the entire season ranked in the top 25 and had a very questionable loss at home to 5-6 Elon to open the year. The Chants also lost to 3-8 Georgia Southern on the road.

Coastal had a signature win (against Furman) at home, went unbeaten in the league and made the field. So there's precedent, which will help any Big South team with a similar resume.

Something to think about.

I would need to know who else was on the bubble with them.

[appstate1998]

RE: W&M (7-4) vs Liberty (10-2).

Liberty only has 8 DI wins and W&M has a FBS loss. So, in FCS, it's W&M (7-3) vs Liberty (8-2)

W&M has no loss as bad as PC. W&M has a win against playoff-bound UNH, Liberty has no wins against playoff teams .

Common opponent, VMI:
WM 52 VMI 17
LIB 38 VMI 26

I agree totally here that you look at the 7-3 vs the 8-2. Like already pointed out....the two losses Liberty have are much worst than the 3 W&M has. And the loss today was nothing to hang there heads down about. If anything it proved their resilience to come back after being down so bad and pushed the game to overtime. Comparing wins....W&M won every game by at least 2 scores except for UNH. 3 of Libertys wins were against mediocre teams and were won by 3, 3 and 5.

I would personally take W&M over liberty. I am glad Liberty beat Elon because that should keep a team that had a lot of people fooled out of the playoffs.

[IaaScribe]

Dukie ... I'd have to go back and check on that. Didn't somebody get woofed in '06 in favor of Coastal? Maybe some Coastal fans can refresh me on that.

[danefan]

You are oh so very ignorant to the home field advantage VMI has. You really have no idea. It has less to do with numbers and more to do with who they are and the way they organize themselves.

Who they are? You mean the team that 5-14 in FCS games at home since 2005? Real home-field advantage there. xwhistlex

[appstate1998]

A couple of the 2006 selections were a joke. Montana State made it that year with a D-II loss. UNI was on the bubble, as was Portland State.

I'm pretty sure San Diego felt the most miffed that year because I think they were ranked most of the year and were 10-0 at selection time. However they were playing in the Pioneer league...but undefeated. San Diego was destroying the teams though that year.

Coastal lost to a pretty bad Elon and a Georgia Southern team I think most Eagles wish that season could be erased, and barely squeaked by VMI, Furman and Wofford that year.

[Eight Legger]

If you want to take the best team, it is W&M. The Tribe would probably beat Liberty 7 or 8 times out of 10 if they played. I will have to take Elon out of the mix because Liberty waxed them.

[Eaglegus2]

Does anyone think playing the 12th game has hurt some and helped some when it comes to the playoff?

[Shellin]

A couple of the 2006 selections were a joke. Montana State made it that year with a D-II loss. UNI was on the bubble, as was Portland State.

I'm pretty sure San Diego felt the most miffed that year because I think they were ranked most of the year and were 10-0 at selection time. However they were playing in the Pioneer league...but undefeated. San Diego was destroying the teams though that year.

Coastal lost to a pretty bad Elon and a Georgia Southern team I think most Eagles wish that season could be erased, and barely squeaked by VMI, Furman and Wofford that year.

If I remember correctly didn't that joke of a Montana State team cream Furman in the first round?

[CJHawkeyes]

FWIW, here are the eight at-large teams according to a point system I devised:

1-Montana 47
2-Villanova 47
3-Wofford 44
4-Richmond 44
5-Cal Poly 44
6-Northern Iowa 41
7-New Hampshire 41
8-Liberty 34

[knucklehead]

VMI averages what about 7,000 a game? Negligible home field advantage if you ask me.


Ever been to a VMI home game. It is a great loud atmosphere, and the cadets are the 12th man! It is a big Home field advantage and a great place to watch a game.

[knucklehead]

If you want to take the best team, it is W&M. The Tribe would probably beat Liberty 7 or 8 times out of 10 if they played. I will have to take Elon out of the mix because Liberty waxed them.


Based on what evidence. We played them close at their place last year and got hosed on a bad call at the end. I think we are better this year and so are they, but who knows who would win how many out of 8.

[BDKJMU]

I think I agree. W&M versus Liberty seems to be the last two and W&M is more deserving. However, Villanova was more deserving than EIU last year and Nova at Turkey dinner at home.

I would give it to 8-4/5-3 Maine over 7-4/5-3 W&M. JMU just kicked the snot out of W&M- again when JMU went up 45-10 early in the 4th, they had outgained W&M by 500+ to 169 at that point.

At Maine JMU was tied 10-10 early in the 4th before winning 24-10. I was one of the few dozen JMU fans at the Maine game. From personal observations Maine was the better team.

[bcrawf]

You have to put NDSU into the discussion. They do have one bad loss (Youngstown) but they did beat SIU...

[BDKJMU]

Let's face it, there isn't a 16th team worthy of the playoffs right now. Liberty has an awful loss and a mediocre loss and its only good win is against a team that didn't make the playoffs. W&M has no bad losses, a good win at UNH but only 7 wins. Elon really has no good wins, and some ok losses. I have no idea who I would pick.

Maine

[ASUTodd]

I still think Elon may have an outside shot at an at large... who knows... We won't be able to tell until after tomorrow.

[tribe_pride]

I would give it to 8-4/5-3 Maine over 7-4/5-3 W&M. JMU just kicked the snot out of W&M- again when JMU went up 45-10 early in the 4th, they had outgained W&M by 500+ to 169 at that point.

At Maine JMU was tied 10-10 early in the 4th before winning 24-10. I was one of the few dozen JMU fans at the Maine game. From personal observations Maine was the better team.

What about the fact that W&M beat UNH at UNH while UNH beat Maine at Maine.

[appmountaineer]

Liberty gets my vote with their win over Elon today.

[B&G]

I think the selection committee goes with Liberty over W&M.

- Committee chose five CAA teams last year. The board is headed by a CAA rep. Choosing a non-CAA school would prove there is no favoritism. They certainly couldn't admit this publicly but it could be a factor.
- Choosing Liberty would cause a lot fewer headaches when it comes to matchups for seeded teams...

Liberty @ (1)JMU (bus)
Wofford vs SCSU (bus)
Weber St @ (4)CalPoly (plane)
Richmond vs UNI (plane)

EKU @ (2)ASU (bus)
Colgate vs Villanova (bus)
Texas St @ (3)Montana (plane)
UNH vs SIU (plane)

... of course they could switch the at-large matchups around but these seem to make a lot of sense.

-I do feel that W&M has the better resume but sometimes other factors can trump that. I get a feeling this may be one of those cases.

[Dukie95]

I still think Elon may have an outside shot at an at large... who knows... We won't be able to tell until after tomorrow.

No, Elon's out.

You just can't put them in ahead of Liberty, who isn't even a lock themselves.

[89Hen]

I still think Elon may have an outside shot at an at large... who knows... We won't be able to tell until after tomorrow.
Yes, you can tell now. There is no way Elon get an at-large. There is really only one spot up for grabs and Liberty just cut ahead of them in line for that spot.

[Syntax Error]

Dukie ... I'd have to go back and check on that. Didn't somebody get woofed in '06 in favor of Coastal? Maybe some Coastal fans can refresh me on that.Final GPI Playoff Indicator
Rank, Team, (Total)

At-Large:
6. James Madison (5.44)
7. New Hampshire (7.67)
8. Illinois St (10.11)
9. S Illinois (11.44)

10. Portland St (12.78) <---Not selected
11. Furman (14.00)
12. Northern Iowa (14.89) <---Not selected
13. San Diego (15.22) <---Not selected

Bubble:
19. Wofford (19.89)
20. Coastal Carolina (20.11) <---Selected
22. Montana St (20.89) <---Selected
26. E Illinois (24.78) <---Selected

Auto-Qualifiers:
1. Massachusetts (2.00)
3. Appalachian St (2.56)
4. Montana (3.78)
5. Youngstown St (4.89)
21. Hampton (20.78)
24. TN Martin (22.44)
34. McNeese St (31.33)
49. Lafayette (41.67)

Analysis:
* For the first time the GPI missed more than one at-large selection, missing three. The Committee selected two different four loss teams (Eastern Illinois and Montana State) than what the GPI indicated (Portland State and Northern Iowa) and Coastal Carolina instead of San Diego.
* For the first time the major polls out-performed the GPI. All three missed only Montana State. Both AGS and CSN indicated Northern Iowa and SNW indicated San Diego.

[appstate1998]

If I remember correctly didn't that joke of a Montana State team cream Furman in the first round?

You sir are correct...luckily it made App's run to the championship pretty easy.... I was pointing out to a question asked and in my opinion Montana State didn't belong. They lost to Chadron State that year, skunked 45-0 by a mediocre UC Davis, and lost to a mediocre EWU team that year....I'll give you they played Montana close though which is probably what got them in.

[IaaScribe]

I bow to you, Syntax Error.

[proasu89]

so is elon officially out?

Nope

[knucklehead]

Nope


YEP!

[EKUSteve]

Maine

Is everyone just automatically eliminating an 8 - 3 Jacksonville St from consideration because they are in the OVC?

Of course, their best win in Tennessee St, so....

[tribe_pride]

Is everyone just automatically eliminating an 8 - 3 Jacksonville St from consideration because they are in the OVC?

Of course, their best win in Tennessee St, so....

Eliminated because their resume is not as strong as several other teams in front of them that are also going to be left out. With an in conference schedule of the OVC teams and out of conference being an auto loss to Ga Tech and 2 bad FCS teams, Jax St. would need to win its conference to get in.

[UNH Fanboi]

I can't believe people are suggesting that Elon could somehow still get in.

[EKUSteve]

Eliminated because their resume is not as strong as several other teams in front of them that are also going to be left out. With an in conference schedule of the OVC teams and out of conference being an auto loss to Ga Tech and 2 bad FCS teams, Jax St. would need to win its conference to get in.

I think the use of the phrase "bad FCS teams" for EKU and UT-Martin is probably off base. I'm not saying we are as strong as the CAA or SoCon top tier, but we are not bad.

[tribe_pride]

I think the use of the phrase "bad FCS teams" for EKU and UT-Martin is probably off base. I'm not saying we are as strong as the CAA or SoCon top tier, but we are not bad.

Was not referring to them. I was referring to the OOC wins over Chattanooga and Alabama A&M. What I meant was that because the OVC is not very strong, Jax needs a tougher out of conference schedule to get in the playoffs. Wins over Chat and Alabama A&M are not going to do it.

My original post may not have been worded well.

[EKUSteve]

Was not referring to them. I was referring to the OOC wins over Chattanooga and Alabama A&M. What I meant was that because the OVC is not very strong, Jax needs a tougher out of conference schedule to get in the playoffs. Wins over Chat and Alabama A&M are not going to do it.

My original post may not have been worded well.

No problem. I think we are on the same sheet on their OOC wins. To me, no one else with 8 wins really has a great resume.

[BDKJMU]

Maine

Like I said.:)

[BDKJMU]

I would give it to 8-4/5-3 Maine over 7-4/5-3 W&M. JMU just kicked the snot out of W&M- again when JMU went up 45-10 early in the 4th, they had outgained W&M by 500+ to 169 at that point.

At Maine JMU was tied 10-10 early in the 4th before winning 24-10. I was one of the few dozen JMU fans at the Maine game. From personal observations Maine was the better team.


What about the fact that W&M beat UNH at UNH while UNH beat Maine at Maine.

I was right.

[Eight Legger]

I was right.

Modest, too.:D