At Large Teams for Playoffs

[Cincy App]

Wanted some thoughts regarding which at-large teams completely control their playoff selection.

First of all, I am assuming that the following 5 teams are playoff locks:
Hampton (MEAC champ)
Northern Iowa (Gateway champ)
UNH (A-10 leader and will make field even with loss vs. Maine)
Montana (Big Sky leader and will make field even with loss vs. MSU)
Appalachian State (SoCon champ)
Furman (I think they make field even with loss vs. Chatt)

The following 2 teams have completed their season at 8-3:
Georgia Southern
Youngstown St

For the sake of argument, let's say the following results occur next weekend:
UMass over Hofstra
Richmond over W&M
SIU over ND St
Texas St over SH St
Nichols St over McNeese
Cal Poly over Idaho St
Lafayette over Lehigh
Colgate over G'town (and win Patriot)
Montana St over Montana (and EWU wins Big Sky)
Jax St over E. Illinois (and either JSU or EKU wins flip)
Coastal over Charleston Southern
SC State over NC A&T

The point of the thread is which teams truly control their playoff status. If all of the above occurred, then the following would be at-large candidates without even considering 4-loss teams such as Ill St or Montana St:

Furman
GSU
Montana
SIU
YSU
UMass
Richmond
Texas St
Cal Poly
CCU
SC State
Lehigh
Lafayette
E. Illinois

My thoughts are that Furman, GSU, Montana, SIU, UMass, and Texas St are locks. I would give YSU and Richmond the upper hand for the last two spots but Cal Poly and CCU would certainly receive alot of consideration. What are some other thoughts?

[Saint3333]

Wanted some thoughts regarding which at-large teams completely control their playoff selection.

For the sake of argument, let's say the following results occur next weekend:
UMass over Hofstra
Richmond over W&M
SIU over ND St
Texas St over SH St
Nichols St over McNeese
Cal Poly over Idaho St
Lafayette over Lehigh
Colgate over G'town (and win Patriot)
Montana St over Montana (and EWU wins Big Sky)
Jax St over E. Illinois (and either JSU or EKU wins flip)
Coastal over Charleston Southern
SC State over NC A&T



How about if W&M beats Richmond, ND St. beats SIU, and McNeese beats NSU oh buddy it's going to be a won week. Actually these "upsets" could help the committee as CCU and Cal Poly would then be locks for the playoffs. I don't see SC State getting in even our 7-4 teams, but if they did I'd welcome them with open arms to Boone.

[FlyYtown]

I'd say YSU and GSU are the two most likely battling for the final home spot.

[Chucktown]

Eastern Illinois is undefeated in conference play, has 2 losses, 1 to Brigham Young, and another to a tough 1AA school in Illinois State. If loses saturday, do the panthers get an at large bid???

[siugrad99]

OVC gets 1 bid

[PantherMan]

Eastern Illinois is undefeated in conference play, has 2 losses, 1 to Brigham Young, and another to a tough 1AA school in Illinois State. If loses saturday, do the panthers get an at large bid???

NO.

[Poly Pigskin]

I would add Lehigh to your list of "locks." And Poly, but I guess that might be biased.

[Chi Panther]

Eastern Illinois is undefeated in conference play, has 2 losses, 1 to Brigham Young, and another to a tough 1AA school in Illinois State. If loses saturday, do the panthers get an at large bid???

High probability we will see you in CF come the first round....

The last 2 first round match up have been INCREDIBLE games to be at......in 96 and 01

[Tim James]

I would add Lehigh to your list of "locks." And Poly, but I guess that might be biased.

A 8-3 team thats way out there on the west coast and doesnt have a history of being in the playoffs and doesnt play in a major conference is not a lock.

[JohnStOnge]

It'd be a miracle if all those games turn out like that. Too many games with a sufficient probability of going the other way. Like let's say the winner you picked is 80 percent likely to win in each game. There'd be a 93 percent chance that at least one will lose and a 73 percent chance at least two would.

And I think in most of those games the probability of the favorite winning is less than 80 percent...sometimes substantially so.

Very unpredictable. That's what makes it fun.

[HensRock]

A 8-3 team thats way out there on the west coast and doesnt have a history of being in the playoffs and doesnt play in a major conference is not a lock.

CCU also does not have a playoff history, has a better record, and is on the EAST COAST, yet has less of a chance of getting in the playoffs that Cal Poly IMO.

So please drop this East coast bias B.S.!

[89Hen]

do the panthers get an at large bid???
No. Not until the OVC wins a playoff game again.

[HensRock]

My thoughts are that Furman, GSU, Montana, SIU, UMass, and Texas St are locks. I would give YSU and Richmond the upper hand for the last two spots but Cal Poly and CCU would certainly receive alot of consideration. What are some other thoughts?

My thoughts are that Richmond is being seriously disrespected. Last time I checked, 8-3 was BETTER than 7-3. That puts them in ahead of SIU or YSU.

Under your scenario, I beleive the pecking order would be:

(NOTE: Records indicated are how the committee WILL view them!)

9-2 Furman
8-3 UMass
8-3 Georgia Southern
8-3 Cal Poly
8-3 Richmond

Those 5 above, would be pretty safe bets. Then you need to draw 3 more from the following:

7-2 Texas State
7-3 Montana
8-3 Lehigh
7-3 SIU
7-3 YSU
8-3 Eastern Illinois
9-1 Coastal
8-2 SC State
8-3 Lafayette

[Sam Adams]

HensRock's analysis looks about right. However there will be some upsets on Saturday - Guarantee it.

From those 3 I would take Lehigh, Montana and Eastern Illinois.

[HensRock]

I would take:
9-1 Coastal
7-2 Texas State
7-3 Montana

[Black and Gold Express]

having no clue about the strengths of the teams, how possible/probable is Montana State beating Montana? All I know is the game's in Bozeman, and the Griz fans have been errily quiet so far this week. I'm guessing they aren't comfortable with this one.

I kinda see that game as the single game that will shape the playoffs more than any other right now. Anyone with some unbiased thoughts?

[89Hen]

8-3 Cal Poly
8-3 Richmond

Those 5 above, would be pretty safe bets.
I think they will probably get in, but I don't know if I'd classify either as 'safe bets', especially UR.

[HensRock]

BGX, I agree that game is very important at shaping the playoff field.
At 7-3 Montana would be very much a bubble team to make the playoffs - and before everyone piles on me, take a look at YSU and SIU who are in the exact same boat. 7-3 with a DI-A loss. With 9-1 Coastal and 8-3 Cal Poly in the wings, would the committee actually leave the Griz out? I think no, but I also think it's closer than most people think.

[HensRock]

I think they will probably get in, but I don't know if I'd classify either as 'safe bets', especially UR.

Yet, everyone is calling 7-3 Montana "a lock".

[ChickenMan]

Those 5 above, would be pretty safe bets. Then you need to draw 3 more from the following:

7-2 Texas State
7-3 Montana
8-3 Lehigh
7-3 SIU
7-3 YSU
8-3 Eastern Illinois
9-1 Coastal
8-2 SC State
8-3 Lafayette


1... Montana
2... Texas St
3... YSU

[HensRock]

1... Montana
2... Texas St
3... YSU

So you'd take YSU over SIU when they are both 7-3 with a I-A loss and SIU beat YSU head-to-head?

[ChickenMan]

Yet, everyone is calling 7-3 Montana "a lock".

they're 8-2 and they ARE a lock... ;)

[ChickenMan]

So you'd take YSU over SIU when they are both 7-3 with a I-A loss and SIU beat YSU head-to-head?

Yep... what has SIU done in the playoffs...??? ;)

[eaglesrthe1]

Yet, everyone is calling 7-3 Montana "a lock".
With Montana's recent success in the playoffs, and with their attendance ($$$), I would be much suprised to see them out of it @ 8-3. I would call them a lock. Not to mention their current ranking.

[bostonspider]

How is Richmond not more of a lock if they beat W&M? They would be co-champs of the A10 with a 7-1 confrence record, 8-3 overall, with losses to a likely fellow co-champ UMass, a pretty good Lafayette team, who might end up co-champs of the PL, and to a SEC team, Vandy, on the road. The first two losses were without Stacy Tutt at QB, and the team will have won 7 straight games with him back under center. I would think that with that resume UR would be pretty close to a lock.

[ChickenMan]

How is Richmond not more of a lock if they beat W&M? They would be co-champs of the A10 with a 7-1 confrence record, 8-3 overall, with losses to a likely fellow co-champ UMass, a pretty good Lafayette team, who might end up co-champs of the PL, and to a SEC team, Vandy, on the road. The first two losses were without Stacy Tutt at QB, and the team will have won 7 straight games with him back under center. I would think that with that resume UR would be pretty close to a lock.


Richmond is in... IF they beat W&M... :nod:

[89Hen]

Yet, everyone is calling 7-3 Montana "a lock".
Montana, Richmond. Yes, I'd call them a lock before UR.

[Cincy App]

My thoughts are that Richmond is being seriously disrespected. Last time I checked, 8-3 was BETTER than 7-3. That puts them in ahead of SIU or YSU.

Under your scenario, I beleive the pecking order would be:

(NOTE: Records indicated are how the committee WILL view them!)

9-2 Furman
8-3 UMass
8-3 Georgia Southern
8-3 Cal Poly
8-3 Richmond

Those 5 above, would be pretty safe bets. Then you need to draw 3 more from the following:

7-2 Texas State
7-3 Montana
8-3 Lehigh
7-3 SIU
7-3 YSU
8-3 Eastern Illinois
9-1 Coastal
8-2 SC State
8-3 Lafayette

Richmond is playing well now but likely will be the #3 team from the A-10 with a marginal OOC results (including a loss to Lafayette). Several teams have tough games on Saturday. It will be fun to watch Saturday's games unfold. Richmond should be safe with a win but I wouldn't consider them a lock if Montana loses and all other bubble teams win. Not likely to happen but I remember bubbles bursting for at-large candidates 2 years ago when MSU pulled the upset. Again, I would have UR or YSU as the last one out then (or maybe SIU) but that's just my opinion...

[Chi Panther]

IF SIU beats NDSU.......SIU will be in the playoffs before YSU.......

[siegegun]

UMass isn't getting much considereation in the big scheme of things, but, having watched them a few times this year, except for a brain fart against Colgate, they were one turnover away from beating No. 1 UNH and just lost to Army by a TD and should have won that game. If Appalacian St. is getting all this consideration for a top-4 seed, I would think that UMass, considering the overall strength of the A-10, would have to get consideration for a first round home game.

[lugo02]

My thoughts are that Richmond is being seriously disrespected. Last time I checked, 8-3 was BETTER than 7-3. That puts them in ahead of SIU or YSU.

Under your scenario, I beleive the pecking order would be:

(NOTE: Records indicated are how the committee WILL view them!)

9-2 Furman
8-3 UMass
8-3 Georgia Southern
8-3 Cal Poly
8-3 Richmond

Those 5 above, would be pretty safe bets. Then you need to draw 3 more from the following:

7-2 Texas State
7-3 Montana
8-3 Lehigh
7-3 SIU
7-3 YSU
8-3 Eastern Illinois
9-1 Coastal
8-2 SC State
8-3 Lafayette

Why is an 8-3 Richmond a safe bet but an 8-3 Lafayette not?
Lafayette would have beaten two teams ranked in the final poll (including Richmond), Richmond would have beaten 0 teams ranked in the final poll

[GrizSweeper]

So tell me why are you ommitting the D-I loses and including D-II wins???
you got that backwards

[lugo02]

you got that backwards

Ha, HA I changed it