unlikely playoff scenerio

[gabe01]

Tell me this... If Furman, W&M, Maine, and Elon lose plus an NDSU win over SDSU... can NDSU make a playoff argument?

Now before you put words in my mouth and say I'm crazy for saying we should be in the playoffs... I'm not saying we should be in... I only think we have an argument if ALL 4 of those teams lose plus NDSU wins. Unlikely, but possible. Thoughts?

[Syntax Error]

gabe01 wrote:
NDSU is a bubble team. They have quietly creeped back up into the polls and are in a positon to end on a 4 game win streak. Their ranking in the coaches poll is fair, but I'm surprised to see they are not showing up in the AGS poll. Next week if they beat SDSU they will be ranked in all polls.

I don't think the MVC is getting enough credit and the OVC is getting too much. If Tennessee State had played a Missouri Valley Conference schedule, would they be ranked? I don't think any OVC team could beat SIU, UNI, NDSU, SDSU, or WIU.

It's strange that NDSU has been ranked for almost 6 years in a row and have beaten 3 D1-A teams and they lose a few games to good teams like UNI and WIU and they are dropped when they are playoff eligible. I think it's too harsh but I'm of course biased.

Tell me this... If Furman, W&M, Maine, and Elon lose plus and NDSU wins... can we can make a playoff argument? Anyone disagree? Now before you put words in my mouth and say I'm crazy for saying we shoudl be in the playoffs... I'm not saying we should be in... I only think we have an argument if ALL 4 of those teams lose plus NDSU wins. Unlikely, but possible. Thoughts?FCS fans, what you say?

[uofmman1122]

As I said in the other thread, no.

Liberty would move ahead of NDSU with a win over Elon, Maine would not drop below NDSU, since they have the same number of losses, but none to a bad team (Like Youngstown State), plus W&M's loss helps Maine more.

You may also see a lower conference team from the Patriot or OVC getting in over NDSU. It doesn't matter that they don't play in the MVFC. NDSU doesn't play in the SoCon or the CAA, where they might get waxed every week.

[TheValleyRaider]

At that point you have:

Weber, JMU, SC State, MVFC Auto, OVC Auto, PL Auto, AppSt, SLC Auto

Montana, Cal Poly, Richmond, UNH, Villanova, MVFC Runner-Up (UNI/SIU) and Wofford all in

That's 15 spots right there

NDSU would be 7-4, on a list that would include (I would guess in no particular order):
10-2 Liberty
8-3 Colgate if they're PL Runner-Up
8-4 Maine

In that case, I bet the committee takes Liberty (which somewhat flies in the face of what I said on another thread.... xchinscratchx)

[tingly]

NDSU could make one, but the 2 losses to non-playoff teams make it tough to be a successful argument.

[luflame15]

Liberty will get in with a win on Sat against Elon

[gabe01]

NDSU could make one, but the 2 losses to non-playoff teams make it tough to be a successful argument.

Losing to a still ranked Western Illinois by 1 score isn't a bad loss and Wyoming hasn't lost to a D1-AA team since 1978. They beat us on a last second field goal.

Youngstown started off the season poorly and their QB quit the team after SDSU blew them out. The new QB was looking really good and he put up some great numbers against NDSU... then he got hurt the next week and they have stunk every since. Although Youngstown is a decent team at HOME and it was a 1 score loss early in the year. But they did take Northern Iowa down to the wire. Kind of a flukey game.

I think Maine would drop below NDSU because they have been blown out twice and they haven't beaten anyone. A 5 loss Mass team is their best win. NDSU has beaten Southern Illinois and has been in every game and the worst loss was to UNI on the road by 10. That's UNI's worst home win this year.

[Gil Dobie]

I think it's highly unlikely that NDSU gets in. First the right combination of wins/losses has to happen, then they have to be selected against some other pretty deserving teams. The YSU initiation into the MVFC was a big strike.

[appfan2008]

I agree with you guys... winner take all in the elon liberty game!!!

[WrenFGun]

I don't think it's unfeasible, the more I think about it. I think the committee would like a Dakota school to be in.

The biggest problem with your argument is that Youngstown State LOST to Liberty, and you LOST to Youngstown State, which probably hurts the advantage you'd have with quality wins over SDSU and SIU. I would agree, though, that in the scenario you list above, NDSU would leapfrog Maine, but only because the committee would try really hard to take 5 teams from the CAA, and that wouldn't fly.

You'd also only have 7 wins. There will be plenty of teams with 8+ DI wins to choose from.

[Eight Legger]

There is no chance that NDSU will get in, and even less of a chance Liberty will make it even with a 70-point win against Elon Saturday. You lost to Presbyterian, end of story. That's by far the worst loss on the baord for any bubble teams.

[gabe01]

At that point you have:

Weber, JMU, SC State, MVFC Auto, OVC Auto, PL Auto, AppSt, SLC Auto

Montana, Cal Poly, Richmond, UNH, Villanova, MVFC Runner-Up (UNI/SIU) and Wofford all in

That's 15 spots right there

NDSU would be 7-4, on a list that would include (I would guess in no particular order):
10-2 Liberty
8-3 Colgate if they're PL Runner-Up
8-4 Maine

In that case, I bet the committee takes Liberty (which somewhat flies in the face of what I said on another thread.... xchinscratchx)


Liberty has a had a season they should be proud of but there have only been 3 teams in recent history that made the playoffs in a non auto bid conference and quite frankly, they had MUCH more impressive resume's than Liberty.

Florida Atlantic in 2003 beat D1-A Middle Tennessee State, almost beat Central Florida, and beat 2 Gateway teams and 2 Southland teams. Florida Atlantic went deep into the playoffs.

Cal Poly in 2005. Went 4-1 vs the Big Sky, narrowly losing to Montana. They handed a ranked NDSU team a blowout loss, still the worst in their FCS history. Poly went on to beat Montana in the playoffs.

Coastal Carolina in 2006 had quality wins over Wofford, Furman, and blew out South Carolina State. They were the weakest team in a non auto bid to get into the playoffs and it showed since they got blown out in the first round.

If Liberty would beat Elon, they would only have 1 quality win on the season. That does not compare to the above teams. Liberty has beaten 2-D2 teams, a 3-8 Western Carolina, a 3-8 Youngstown, a 5-6 Stony Brook, a 3-4 Virgina Military, and a 5-6 Gardner Web. Their 2 biggest wins came over a 6-5 Costal Carolina and Charleston Southern. Got blown out by a 7-3 Lafeyette team at home and lost to a 4-7 Presbyterian by 14.

How would Liberty have fared if they had played NDSUs MVC schedule vs Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Western Illinos, and South Dakota State? I think they would have had a tough time with Illinois State.

[gabe01]

I don't think it's unfeasible, the more I think about it. I think the committee would like a Dakota school to be in.

The biggest problem with your argument is that Youngstown State LOST to Liberty, and you LOST to Youngstown State, which probably hurts the advantage you'd have with quality wins over SDSU and SIU. I would agree, though, that in the scenario you list above, NDSU would leapfrog Maine, but only because the committee would try really hard to take 5 teams from the CAA, and that wouldn't fly.

You'd also only have 7 wins. There will be plenty of teams with 8+ DI wins to choose from.

The sad part is this. For Liberty, the 3 point win was the biggest of their season so far. For NDSU, the 1 score loss was the most disapointing loss on the season.

That was the flukiest game ever. I'm not a guy who blames injures very often but how often can you say your not playing with 8 starters and not only that, your middle linebacker is the 3rd stringer, your safety was a 4th string transfer who has been with the team for only a month, and your top 2 running backs are 2 freshman with zero starts? I'll save my breath on that one...

[LehighFan11]

Liberty blew it with losing to Presbyterian.

[DB_Atlantic10]

Liberty has a had a season they should be proud of but there have only been 3 teams in recent history that made the playoffs in a non auto bid conference and quite frankly, they had MUCH more impressive resume's than Liberty.

Florida Atlantic in 2003 beat D1-A Middle Tennessee State, almost beat Central Florida, and beat 2 Gateway teams and 2 Southland teams. Florida Atlantic went deep into the playoffs.

Cal Poly in 2005. Went 4-1 vs the Big Sky, narrowly losing to Montana. They handed a ranked NDSU team a blowout loss, still the worst in their FCS history. Poly went on to beat Montana in the playoffs.

Coastal Carolina in 2006 had quality wins over Wofford, Furman, and blew out South Carolina State. They were the weakest team in a non auto bid to get into the playoffs and it showed since they got blown out in the first round.

If Liberty would beat Elon, they would only have 1 quality win on the season. That does not compare to the above teams. Liberty has beaten 2-D2 teams, a 3-8 Western Carolina, a 3-8 Youngstown, a 5-6 Stony Brook, a 3-4 Virgina Military, and a 5-6 Gardner Web. Their 2 biggest wins came over a 6-5 Costal Carolina and Charleston Southern. Got blown out by a 7-3 Lafeyette team at home and lost to a 4-7 Presbyterian by 14.

How would Liberty have fared if they had played NDSUs MVC schedule vs Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Western Illinos, and South Dakota State? I think they would have had a tough time with Illinois State. If Liberty beats Elon, they would have met the criteria to make the play-offs this year. I know stength of schedule is key, but a 10 win season is much better when it comes to 4 loss teams. If you think back a few years, Hampton went 11-0 and did not play a tough schedule and received the #1 or #2 seed that year, only to get blown out by Richmond 35-10. Strength of schedule will mainly come into play between to comparable teams with the same record. Liberty scheduled MVC, Patriot and Southern Conf opponents this year, they will go at 10-2 if they beat Elon and will more than likely face JMU in the first round if they both win this weekend. xrulesx

Plus the list of 4 loss quality teams could be pretty long this year, so Liberty would be the easy fix to that situation as with Lafayette in 2005 at 8-3. Most felt they did not deserve a bid and ended up losing a close one at the Rock to ASU in the first round.

[gabe01]

If Liberty beats Elon, they would have met the criteria to make the play-offs this year. I know stength of schedule is key, but a 10 win season is much better when it comes to 4 loss teams. If you think back a few years, Hampton went 11-0 and did not play a tough schedule and received the #1 or #2 seed that year, only to get blown out by Richmond 35-10. Strength of schedule will mainly come into play between to comparable teams with the same record. Liberty scheduled MVC, Patriot and Southern Conf opponents this year, they will go at 10-2 if they beat Elon and will more than likely face JMU in the first round if they both win this weekend. xrulesx

Plus the list of 4 loss quality teams could be pretty long this year, so Liberty would be the easy fix to that situation as with Lafayette in 2005 at 8-3. Most felt they did not deserve a bid and ended up losing a close one at the Rock to ASU in the first round.

In the eyes of the FCS, 10-2 is only 8-2 because the 2 D2 games do not count. They would also have to be ranked in the top 16 as an average in all 3 polls. That is going to be close.

I think W&M, Maine, Elon, and NDSU have a stronger case if they all end up with 4 losses.

I thiink it's a toss up between those 4 teams for the last spot.

All I know is this will certainly be a fun finish!

[clenz]

NO


NDSU will not make the playoffs

[Eight Legger]

The whole playoff picture comes down to this: does the committee want to take the 8 teams it believes are the absolute best 8 teams available for at-large bids, or does it want to take the 8 teams with the best records? I would hope it takes the best 8 teams, period.

[DB_Atlantic10]

In the eyes of the FCS, 10-2 is only 8-2 because the 2 D2 games do not count. They would also have to be ranked in the top 16 as an average in all 3 polls. That is going to be close.

I think W&M, Maine, Elon, and NDSU have a stronger case if they all end up with 4 losses.

I thiink it's a toss up between those 4 teams for the last spot.

All I know is this will certainly be a fun finish! Every year the Committee surprises us with a team that noone predicts as making it.... you can bet there will be some other 9 or 8 win team with less than 4 losses selected over this crop of teams.... It never fails

[danefan]

The whole playoff picture comes down to this: does the committee want to take the 8 teams it believes are the absolute best 8 teams available for at-large bids, or does it want to take the 8 teams with the best records? I would hope it takes the best 8 teams, period.

That's what it did last year.

There were a few 8+ win teams last year on the bubble (Norfolk State, Albany, Alabama A&M, Dayton, etc...) and instead the committee took UNH, the 5th CAA team with only 7 DI wins, but that unarguably the stronger than the 8+ DI win teams. The only team that had a legit beef with UNH being selected last year was Nova.

That to me proves that they will take the best 8 teams available.

[MplsBison]

The whole playoff picture comes down to this: does the committee want to take the 8 teams it believes are the absolute best 8 teams available for at-large bids, or does it want to take the 8 teams with the best records? I would hope it takes the best 8 teams, period.

Or maybe is the question: does the NCAA want to take the 8 teams who you can make a decent argument for but will guarantee the highest revenue for the NCAA?


NDSU hosting a playoff game guarantees that.

[MplsBison]

NO


NDSU will not make the playoffs


When did the UNI fans get together and decide that they would all spew venom about NDSU making the playoffs?


This is the first time in twenty whatever years that we played.

Did you guys all hold a grudge from when we kicked your a$$es up and down the NCC?



You'd think that MVFC teams would be pulling for each other to get in. Wierd.

[MplsBison]

I think NDSU's chance rests on Maine, W&M and Elon all losing and then getting picked over Liberty.

[dbackjon]

Or maybe is the question: does the NCAA want to take the 8 teams who you can make a decent argument for but will guarantee the highest revenue for the NCAA?


NDSU hosting a playoff game guarantees that.

NDSU will not host a playoff game this year. Guaranteed.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

First they must win. That gives them two big wins on their resume.

Then they must sit back and hope that:

* UNH beats Maine
* Richmond beats W&M
* Elon loses to Liberty

And... they must hope that the commitee snubs a 8-4 Elon team that lost their last two games AND a 10-2 Liberty team that lost to Presbyterian and Lafayette but beat said Elon team.

You would think that Elon and Liberty would both get consideration before NDSU only because they would have 8 D-I wins. Still, stranger things have happened.

[rcny46]

I think NDSU's chance rests on Maine, W&M and Elon all losing and then getting picked over Liberty.


I think you nailed it.Only four will be going from the CAA and two from the SoCon in your scenario,leaving one spot open.You never know.There could be a few additional teams under consideration in that case like Prairie View,and the PL & OVC runners up,but NDSU might have as good a shot as anyone,IF they knock off SDSU Saturday.Good Luck.Personally,I'd like to see you get in.

[Go Apps]

No 4 loss team gets an at large

[clenz]

When did the UNI fans get together and decide that they would all spew venom about NDSU making the playoffs?


This is the first time in twenty whatever years that we played.

Did you guys all hold a grudge from when we kicked your a$$es up and down the NCC?



You'd think that MVFC teams would be pulling for each other to get in. Wierd.
This has nothing to do with UNI/NDSU, the NCC, or anything like that (Hell I wasn't born until UNI had been D1 for almost a decade and had couple conference titles (1988)). This has to do with reality. If UNI was 7-4 they wouldn't deserve a playoff spot either.

[TheValleyRaider]

If Liberty would beat Elon, they would only have 1 quality win on the season. That does not compare to the above teams. Liberty has beaten 2-D2 teams, a 3-8 Western Carolina, a 3-8 Youngstown, a 5-6 Stony Brook, a 3-4 Virgina Military, and a 5-6 Gardner Web. Their 2 biggest wins came over a 6-5 Costal Carolina and Charleston Southern. Got blown out by a 7-3 Lafeyette team at home and lost to a 4-7 Presbyterian by 14.

How would Liberty have fared if they had played NDSUs MVC schedule vs Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Western Illinos, and South Dakota State? I think they would have had a tough time with Illinois State.

I'm not saying Liberty's resume is overly impressive, but if it comes down to Liberty vs. NDSU, you have one common opponent, Youngstown (a team you don't consider to be that good), and Liberty beat them, and the Bison didn't

Strength of Schedule can only take you so far. At some point, you have to win the games, and NDSU hasn't done quite enough of that yet. Injuries? Yeah, I've heard, but every team has injuries. Life's tough that way

[Khan4Cats]

When did the UNI fans get together and decide that they would all spew venom about NDSU making the playoffs?

This is the first time in twenty whatever years that we played.

Did you guys all hold a grudge from when we kicked your a$$es up and down the NCC?

You'd think that MVFC teams would be pulling for each other to get in. Wierd.

Really? The all-time series is UNI 23 NDSU 18. Not exactly kicking our whatevers.

Actually I wouldn't mind NDSU getting in. They would in all likelihood be sent to a seeded team- my guess would be Montana, but could be Weber State if they get a seed. Makes it more likely for UNI to get to host the Southland Champ or maybe even the OVC Champ.

But I'm a little worried that the committee might even get crazy and stiff a Southern Illinois if they lose this week and leave the MVFC with only one entrant. Not likely either, but just as possible-and NDSU won't get in in front of SIU, even with the head to head.

[MplsBison]

NDSU will not host a playoff game this year. Guaranteed.

If we get in and they don't send us to a seed, guaranteed we will host.

The NCAA bids out for host and I guarantee we will outbid any team other than Montana and App.

[Khan4Cats]

If we get in and they don't send us to a seed, guaranteed we will host.

The NCAA bids out for host and I guarantee we will outbid any team other than Montana and App.

If somehow you make the field, you will be sent to a seed. Win that one and your bidding might get you some home games, but if a 7-4 team makes the field, they will be facing a seed.

[MplsBison]

No 4 loss team gets an at large

It has happened before.

In fact, UNI was the last team to do it I believe.


Of course, they hate NDSU so they'll sandbag and say they shouldn't have gotten it.

[MplsBison]

If somehow you make the field, you will be sent to a seed. Win that one and your bidding might get you some home games, but if a 7-4 team makes the field, they will be facing a seed.

I wouldn't care if they sent us to Cal Poly.

Although that's easily the team I would least like to see.

[mcveyrl]

It has happened before.

In fact, UNI was the last team to do it I believe.


Of course, they hate NDSU so they'll sandbag and say they shouldn't have gotten it.

UNH got in at 7-4 last year.

[WrenFGun]

I think NDSU's chance rests on Maine, W&M and Elon all losing and then getting picked over Liberty.

This is correct. In addition, I think it would behoove NDSU to have Colgate beat Holy Cross (removing Colgate from at-large consideration) and for EKU to beat UT-Martin (removing EKU from at-large consideration). If Maine beats UNH or W&M beats Richmond, UNH or Richmond would absolutely get the bid before NDSU. Still, I think Liberty is in front of NDSU with a win, and Elon certainly is with a win.

[UNIFanSince1983]

It has happened before.

In fact, UNI was the last team to do it I believe.


Of course, they hate NDSU so they'll sandbag and say they shouldn't have gotten it.


UNI has never made the field as an at-large. So get your facts straight. I am not quite sure UNI fans hate you guys and don't want to see you make it. We just don't wear green and yellow so we can be objective and say you probably won't get in with your record and strength of schedule.

We hope 3 teams make the playoffs from our conference. If you do make it your won't have a first round home game because you will probably we sent to a seed. In fact last year New Hampshire made it with a 7-4 record and guess what they went to the #1 seed.

[clenz]

UNI has never made the field as an at-large. So get your facts straight. I am not quite sure UNI fans hate you guys and don't want to see you make it. We just don't wear green and yellow so we can be objective and say you probably won't get in with your record and strength of schedule.

We hope 3 teams make the playoffs from our conference. If you do make it your won't have a first round home game because you will probably we sent to a seed. In fact last year New Hampshire made it with a 7-4 record and guess what they went to the #1 seed.
Thank you for calling him on that, I really didn't want to be the one to point out how wrong that statement was.

[Gil Dobie]

UNI has never made the field as an at-large. So get your facts straight. I am not quite sure UNI fans hate you guys and don't want to see you make it. We just don't wear green and yellow so we can be objective and say you probably won't get in with your record and strength of schedule.

You can wear green and yellow and be objective and say you probably won't get in with a 7-4 record, and a MVFC schedule.

[MplsBison]

I was referring to the fact that UNI went the playoffs with 7 wins.

[UNIFanSince1983]

When we did it was because we had won the conference and the autobid. If SIU wins this weekend we have an opportunity to get our first at large bid, but that will be with either 8 or 9 DI wins.

I am in no way trying to bash NDSU I hope you guys make it. I really just don't think this is going to happen.

[CatsRule04]

I was referring to the fact that UNI went the playoffs with 7 wins.

That only supports your point if we made it as an at large bid as you would be this year. The only way we made the playoffs with 4 losses was if it was as an autobid.....which would obviously not be the case with NDSU this year.

[Khan4Cats]

No 4 loss team gets an at large


It has happened before.

In fact, UNI was the last team to do it I believe.


Of course, they hate NDSU so they'll sandbag and say they shouldn't have gotten it.


I was referring to the fact that UNI went the playoffs with 7 wins.

No, you were referring to at-large. And you were wrong on both counts (UNI having made it as an at-large (has never happened) as well as being the last (UNH last year).

Yes, UNI has gone to the play-offs with 7 (D-I) wins before, but always as the auto-bid. We made it once with 4 losses (1995), but again, we were the auto-bid.

[LakesBison]

maybe NDSU's travelling 3500 fans can come take over another stadium and fill their bars/rest/hotels like we did to your sorry @ss town in Cedar Falls .... HUH??

maybe the NCAA committee would like the sound of adding 3500 to another stadium attendence figure in the 1st round??

NDSU has lost on last sec FG at Wyoming
lost on a blocked punt for td vs WIU by 5
lost to Youngstown with 5 turn's and Still had a shot at end.
couldnt pass the dam ball in Stinker Falls Iowa.

IM NOT WHINING.. JUST FACTS!!

FACTS ARE NDSU WIPES THE ASS OUTTA THE BOTTOM 8 teams in the playoffs!!

money talks, maybe the other FCS teams around the country DONT want NDSU in the playoffs, cuz we'll be on a 4 game win streak and might continue it by 3 more??????

[clenz]

maybe NDSU's travelling 3500 fans can come take over another stadium and fill their bars/rest/hotels like we did to your sorry @ss town in Cedar Falls .... HUH??

maybe the NCAA committee would like the sound of adding 3500 to another stadium attendence figure in the 1st round??

NDSU has lost on last sec FG at Wyoming
lost on a blocked punt for td vs WIU by 5
lost to Youngstown with 5 turn's and Still had a shot at end.
couldnt pass the dam ball in Stinker Falls Iowa.

IM NOT WHINING.. JUST FACTS!!

FACTS ARE NDSU WIPES THE ASS OUTTA THE BOTTOM 8 teams in the playoffs!!

money talks, maybe the other FCS teams around the country DONT want NDSU in the playoffs, cuz we'll be on a 4 game win streak and might continue it by 3 more??????Don't you just sound like a grade a douche.

[uofmman1122]

maybe NDSU's travelling 3500 fans can come take over another stadium and fill their bars/rest/hotels like we did to your sorry @ss town in Cedar Falls .... HUH??

maybe the NCAA committee would like the sound of adding 3500 to another stadium attendence figure in the 1st round??

NDSU has lost on last sec FG at Wyoming
lost on a blocked punt for td vs WIU by 5
lost to Youngstown with 5 turn's and Still had a shot at end.
couldnt pass the dam ball in Stinker Falls Iowa.

IM NOT WHINING.. JUST FACTS!!

FACTS ARE NDSU WIPES THE ASS OUTTA THE BOTTOM 8 teams in the playoffs!!

money talks, maybe the other FCS teams around the country DONT want NDSU in the playoffs, cuz we'll be on a 4 game win streak and might continue it by 3 more??????xbawlingxxbawlingxxbawlingxxbawlingxxbaw lingx

[Grabholdofyosef]

maybe NDSU's travelling 3500 fans can come take over another stadium and fill their bars/rest/hotels like we did to your sorry @ss town in Cedar Falls .... HUH??

maybe the NCAA committee would like the sound of adding 3500 to another stadium attendence figure in the 1st round??

NDSU has lost on last sec FG at Wyoming
lost on a blocked punt for td vs WIU by 5
lost to Youngstown with 5 turn's and Still had a shot at end.
couldnt pass the dam ball in Stinker Falls Iowa.

IM NOT WHINING.. JUST FACTS!!

FACTS ARE NDSU WIPES THE ASS OUTTA THE BOTTOM 8 teams in the playoffs!!

money talks, maybe the other FCS teams around the country DONT want NDSU in the playoffs, cuz we'll be on a 4 game win streak and might continue it by 3 more??????
The facts are that NDSU has 4 losses and doesnt deserve to get in over a few others.

Last year there was all this talk about wait till NDSU is eligible and then they didnt win when they should have this year.

[TheValleyRaider]

NDSU has lost on last sec FG at Wyoming
lost on a blocked punt for td vs WIU by 5
lost to Youngstown with 5 turn's and Still had a shot at end.
couldnt pass the dam ball in Stinker Falls Iowa.

IM NOT WHINING.. JUST FACTS!!

FACT: Good teams find ways to win close games

So, are you?

xcoffeex

[mtgrizfankb]

Ya might as well take MSU if your going to use this logic

[gabe01]

I think you nailed it.Only four will be going from the CAA and two from the SoCon in your scenario,leaving one spot open.You never know.There could be a few additional teams under consideration in that case like Prairie View,and the PL & OVC runners up,but NDSU might have as good a shot as anyone,IF they knock off SDSU Saturday.Good Luck.Personally,I'd like to see you get in.

Thanks buddy. Nice to see someone pulling for us. Our buddies at UNI are freaked out that we're even talking about playoffs! :) They are scared 5,000 of us end up taking over their stadium.

Prairie View is out on a coin flip! Wow!

[gabe01]

No 4 loss team gets an at large

Actually, 5 teams have made it with 4 losses since 2005 but I think New Hampshire was the only one who got in with an at large bid. Correct me if I'm wrong.

2005- Eastern Washington 7-4

2006- Montana St. 7-4, Eastern Illinois 8-4, McNeese St. 7-4

2007- New Hampshire 7-4

[Thunderstruck84]

I'd love for NDSU to make the playoffs but I don't think it'll happen due to the situation. The Bison going 10-1 the last two seasons, if anything, will hurt them due to the fact that it makes this season look like a failure, especially due to the fact that they were rated so highly early in the season. I truly think that NDSU will miss the playoffs regardless of a win against SDSU, you can say snub if you'd like, but they should've beaten YSU or WIU at home, both winnable games and this would not even be a question if that were the case. I bleed green and yellow as much as anyone but the truth is NDSU just doesn't deserve a playoff spot this year. All you who say they do would be saying the same thing as me if you were looking at it from the opposite perspective.

[nmatsen]

Well said from a realistic Bison fan, I have sat around many 8-3 sundays and watched UNI be left from the dance, there is only one sure way to get in, win. Don't worry, NDSU will get their chance.

[JohnStOnge]

FCS fans, what you say?

I think McNeese could also be considered even with only 6 D-I wins if both Texas State and McNeese win. If that's the case it's another competetor for at large spots.

I'll go ahead and mention something again: It really aggravates me that North Dakota State will get more "credit" for beating Austin Peay and Central Connecticut State than McNeese will get for beating Delta State because the Statesmen are D-II and so don't give McNeese the magical 7th D-I win. I think any serious fan of small college football would favor Delta State to beat either of those two named FCS squads.

Just to illustrate: If you go by Massey's combined (all divisions) power rankings that don't consider margin of victory, Delta State is ranked 165th, Central Connecticut State is ranked 235th, and Austin Peay is ranked 242nd. If you go by Massey's power ratings that do consider margin of victory, Delta State is 155th, Central Connecticut 222nd, and Austin Peay 277th.

I've always perceived the committee as automatically considering any win over a I-AA/FCS as superior to any win over a D-II and I've always been opposed to that approach. But I'm really opposed to it this year because it reallly hurts McNeese since the Cowboys beat a good D-II.

[Houndawg]

NDSU has lost on last sec FG at Wyoming
lost on a blocked punt for td vs WIU by 5
lost to Youngstown with 5 turn's and Still had a shot at end.
couldnt pass the dam ball in Stinker Falls Iowa.

IM NOT WHINING.. JUST FACTS!!

FACTS ARE NDSU WIPES THE ASS OUTTA THE BOTTOM 8 teams in the playoffs!!


xrolleyesx Facts are NDSU is at home ******** their fists during the playoffs this year.xnodx

[Gil Dobie]

xrolleyesx Facts are NDSU is at home ******** their fists during the playoffs this year.xnodx

It was nice to beat Dale Lennon in the Fargodome though xthumbsupx

[Big Al]

So, lessee if I get this straight. Some NDSU fans are on crack. ; D

I think that's it, right?

I think you'd need to put a solid thumping on SDSU to even get a look from the committee.

As it is, I don't see NDSU getting the playoffs this year. Sorry.

[Gil Dobie]

So, lessee if I get this straight. Some NDSU fans are on crack. ; D

I think that's it, right?


We all got them, I'm sure WSU has some too. :o

[gabe01]

Tell me this... If Furman, W&M, Maine, and Elon lose plus an NDSU win over SDSU... can NDSU make a playoff argument?

Now before you put words in my mouth and say I'm crazy for saying we should be in the playoffs... I'm not saying we should be in... I only think we have an argument if ALL 4 of those teams lose plus NDSU wins. Unlikely, but possible. Thoughts?

Wow! I didn't think it would ever happen but a lot of those scenerio's are playing out!!

Furman - lost
W&M - lost
Maine - lost

Elon - losing

Tennessee Martin and Tennessee State are both losing but they still have a chance

The odds of this are really small.

Then of course NDSU still has to beat SDSU... which is going to be really tough!

Even if all these scenerio's play out I still think we miss by 1 spot but we will certainly make it interesting!

[OVC Fan]

Just want to point out a team nobody is talking about (someone said there is always a surprise team), especially since they aren't playing today, is Jacksonville State.

8-3 ... losses to Georgia Tech and then the two OVC teams playing for the title today (EKU/UTM on road) ... those 2 FCS losses came by 4 total points. They didn't have a tough non-conference FCS schedule, but they won those games by 27.5 points.

And they have a big-time star in Ryan Perrilloux at QB.

I'm not saying they are getting in, but I think they are in the discussion, especially if Liberty beats Elon.

[danefan]

Jax state has no good wins. that's the problem.

Plus they have the OVC playoff history looming over their heads, which may not bode well.

[OVC Fan]

Jax state has no good wins. that's the problem.

Plus they have the OVC playoff history looming over their heads, which may not bode well.

I don't think the committee looks at past years playoffs and how teams did. It is a year-by-year basis.

Again, I'm not saying JSU is in, but nobody is talking about them and they are much more in the discussion than some people think.

[danefan]

I don't think the committee looks at past years playoffs and how teams did. It is a year-by-year basis.

Again, I'm not saying JSU is in, but nobody is talking about them and they are much more in the discussion than some people think.

They don't officially look at last year's playoffs, but the OVC is a weak conference and has been for a while (hence the playoff history). That will hurt Jax State, IMO.

They'll definitely have their name on the board though. xthumbsupx

[OVC Fan]

They don't officially look at last year's playoffs, but the OVC is a weak conference and has been for a while (hence the playoff history). That will hurt Jax State, IMO.

They'll definitely have their name on the board though. xthumbsupx

Agreed.

But the OVC is much better this year (top heavy) than it has been in a long time. Usually it is 1 team at the top (maybe 2), when this year 4 teams were really better than the rest of the league (3 ranked teams now, 1 just outside the Top 25).

[danefan]

Agreed.

But the OVC is much better this year (top heavy) than it has been in a long time. Usually it is 1 team at the top (maybe 2), when this year 4 teams were really better than the rest of the league (3 ranked teams now, 1 just outside the Top 25).


Top heavy, yes, but perhaps the top is still middle of the road.

Not exact science here of course, but take a look at the GPI:
35T. Jacksonville St (32.00)
35T. TN Martin (32.00)
44. Tennessee St (38.38)
50. E Kentucky (40.00)

[OVC Fan]

Understood. But the GPI is goes TOO heavily on conference SOS. No way is Delaware #25.

[danefan]

Understood. But the GPI is goes TOO heavily on conference SOS. No way is Delaware #25.

You and I agree on that one. I'm just not sold on the fact that Jax State has to rely on the OVC as its solid wins. But I'm not the committee and it is the same committee that should not have put EIU in last year either and did.