Coaches Poll 11/17

[danefan]

Playoff Spots and Seeds Still Up For Grabs


SPARTANBURG, S.C. – Little changed in the top 15 of the FCS Coaches Poll this week, as the end of the regular season draws near. The top nine teams held serve at their spots from last week, while only two teams in the top 15 lost, No. 14 Elon to No. 2 Appalachian State, 24-16, and No. 19 William and Mary to No. 1 James Madison, 48-24.

The Dukes continue their stranglehold on the No. 1 spot by grabbing all 28 first-place votes. They have now held the spot for nine consecutive weeks, dating back to JMU’s 35-32 victory over then-No. 1 and now No. 2 Appalachian State on September 20. The Mountaineers clinched their fourth-straight Southern Conference title Saturday by defeating the Phoenix.

Rounding out the top 10 are Cal Poly, Northern Iowa, Montana, Richmond, Villanova, Weber State, Southern Illinois and Wofford. The No. 10 Terriers moved into the top 10 following Elon’s loss and a 28-7 win over Samford.

Making a return to the poll this week is No. 21 Jacksonville State, which defeated then No. 18 Tennessee State, 26-21. Dropping out of the poll this week was Massachusetts, which was defeated, 52-21, by No. 11 New Hampshire.

The Colonial Athletic Association continues to lead the poll with six teams ranked, including three in the top 10. The SoCon has four teams ranked.

The FCS Coaches Poll is based exclusively on a voting panel of head coaches in the FCS under the cooperation of the Collegiate Commissioners Association (CCA) and the American Football Coaches Association (AFCA) and is administered by the Southern Conference. Two head coaches from each of the 14 FCS conferences participate in the voting.

The FCS Coaches Poll website can be viewed here (http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/FCS/index.htm?KEY=&DB_OEM_ID=4000&DB_LANG=&IN_SUBSCRIBER_CONTENT=) and is updated every week after the release of the poll.


Team (1st Votes) Record Points Prev. Ranking
1. James Madison (28) 9-1 700 1
2. Appalachian State 9-2 668 2
3. Cal Poly 8-1 633 3
4. Northern Iowa 9-2 615 4
5. Montana 10-1 589 5
6. Richmond 8-3 559 6
7. Villanova 8-2 520 7
8. Weber State 9-2 505 8
9. Southern Illinois 8-2 472 9
10. Wofford 8-2 433 11
11. New Hampshire 8-2 414 12
12. Central Arkansas 9-2 372 13
13. McNeese State 7-3 338 14
14. Elon 8-3 331 10
15. South Carolina State 9-2 311 17
16. Harvard 8-1 219 19
17. Maine 8-3 210 23
18. UT Martin 8-3 207 21
19. William and Mary 7-3 171 15
20. Liberty 9-2 164 22
21. Jacksonville State 8-3 117 NR
22. Colgate 8-2 115 24
23. Furman 7-4 106 16
24. North Dakota State 6-4 61 25
25. Tennessee State 8-3 56 18


Other receiving votes (pts. in parentheses): Prairie View A&M (49), Grambling State (40), Western Illinois (28), Montana State (19), Eastern Kentucky (18), Holy Cross (18), Massachusetts (12), South Dakota State (8), Florida A&M (8), Bethune-Cookman (7), Texas State (4), Jacksonville (3).

[Chi Panther]

Oops.....UNI over-rated again....these polls are dumb...

[Anovafan]

You know, if Richmond loses this weekend, I would bet that the coaches would still have them in the top 10. xchinscratchx

[MacThor]

You know, if Richmond loses this weekend, I would bet that the coaches would still have them in the top 10. xchinscratchx

I'll take that bet.

[tribe_pride]

Oops.....UNI over-rated again....these polls are dumb...

Someone really has an inferiority complex. Same comment in post 2 of threads with all 3 polls.

[Eight Legger]

Apparently all the other coaches were on Mars the day we lost to Villanova.

[Pard4Life]

Liberty losses to lesser teams than Lafayette, and they are ranked?

[Khan4Cats]

Someone really has an inferiority complex. Same comment in post 2 of threads with all 3 polls.

It's not really an inferiority complex, it's sarcasm when you compare the results of the human polls versus the computers. The computers don't seem to think UNI belongs on the field with anybody as we rank somewhere in the mid to lower teens in most of them.

But the good thing is, we get to make our case on the field next week.

[gabe01]

You know, if Richmond loses this weekend, I would bet that the coaches would still have them in the top 10. xchinscratchx

Richmond will smoke Maine. Bet on it.

[wideright82]

Richmond will smoke Maine. Bet on it.

Betting against that would be kind of insane, especially because it happened a good number of weeks ago. i don't however know how sure i am about them smoking william and mary.

[tribe_pride]

It's not really an inferiority complex, it's sarcasm when you compare the results of the human polls versus the computers. The computers don't seem to think UNI belongs on the field with anybody as we rank somewhere in the mid to lower teens in most of them.

But the good thing is, we get to make our case on the field next week.

My point was that he had the same post in 3 threads: the Coaches, the TSN and the AGS poll threads. All 3 posts were the first one after the poll was posted.

[Chi Panther]

My point was that he had the same post in 3 threads: the Coaches, the TSN and the AGS poll threads. All 3 posts were the first one after the poll was posted.

My point is how do the computers have such a different take than the humans.....

Do you have any thoughts?

Do you belive UNI is the 8th best team in the CAA?

Normally I don't care about this, I don't understand it...

[tribe_pride]

My point is how do the computers have such a different take than the humans.....

Do you have any thoughts?

Do you belive UNI is the 8th best team in the CAA?

Normally I don't care about this, I don't understand it...

I don't follow UNI enough to have a valid opinion but understand that you probably do based on each of the polls.

My point was that you are being just as annoying as DetroitFlyer is about Dayton when you make that complaint so much. Make it once fine. If you make it 3 times on 3 different threads within a few hours of each other immediately after each thread is started, you just become that guy. And you don't want to be that guy.

[Khan4Cats]

I don't follow UNI enough to have a valid opinion but understand that you probably do based on each of the polls.

My point was that you are being just as annoying as DetroitFlyer is about Dayton when you make that complaint so much. Make it once fine. If you make it 3 times on 3 different threads within a few hours of each other immediately after each thread is started, you just become that guy. And you don't want to be that guy.

I've seen Dayton Flyer. I've seen Chi Panther.

Chi Panther is NO Dayton Flyer.xrolleyesx

[Chi Panther]

I don't follow UNI enough to have a valid opinion but understand that you probably do based on each of the polls.

My point was that you are being just as annoying as DetroitFlyer is about Dayton when you make that complaint so much. Make it once fine. If you make it 3 times on 3 different threads within a few hours of each other immediately after each thread is started, you just become that guy. And you don't want to be that guy.

I may have been annoying, but I'm trying to get someone to explain what criteria this year in the computer polls is giving UNI a low rank. Nobody has been able to respond. Somebody has to know, and I want to understand. I've been around here a while....feel like I generally get it. Squeeky wheel gets the oil.....so who understands....

[DetroitFlyer]

I don't follow UNI enough to have a valid opinion but understand that you probably do based on each of the polls.

My point was that you are being just as annoying as DetroitFlyer is about Dayton when you make that complaint so much. Make it once fine. If you make it 3 times on 3 different threads within a few hours of each other immediately after each thread is started, you just become that guy. And you don't want to be that guy.

Hey now, there is absolutely nothing wrong being "that guy"!xlolx

[UNI Pike]

Chi Panther - The Sagarin ratings are based on the following

- who you have played
- how you have fared against those you have played (both in w/l and points scored)
- who your opponents have played
- how your opponents have fared against those they have played (both in w/l and points scored)

Sagarin starts the season based on the current year's polls and last years results. Sagarin ratings are more accurate toward the end of the season, as they are measuring performance in a fixed pool of variables (FCS & FBS football teams in this discussion). His does not account for wins and losses against non DI teams.

The net is if you beat a team that beats teams with winning records, you are going to be ranked higher. A win against Indiana State (Sagarin #235 of 245) does not count for much. Texas Tech (Sagarin #2) beating Texas (Sagarin #1) skyrocketed Texas Tech. Likewise, JMU is in part benefiting from Duke having the 3 most difficult schedule in the D1 pool.

Another example is that Prairie View A&M is currently 9-1 but only ranked #197 (MO ST is #193 @ 3-7), mostly based on the fact that their schedule is ranked dead last in D1. Their D1 opponents have a combined 31-52 record - this number has non-D1 wins included for time's sake. PV has played 2 non D1 opponents.


Hope that helps.

[Chi Panther]

Chi Panther - The Sagarin ratings are based on the following

- who you have played
- how you have fared against those you have played (both in w/l and points scored)
- who your opponents have played
- how your opponents have fared against those they have played (both in w/l and points scored)

Sagarin starts the season based on the current year's polls and last years results. Sagarin ratings are more accurate toward the end of the season, as they are measuring performance in a fixed pool of variables (FCS & FBS football teams in this discussion). His does not account for wins and losses against non DI teams.

The net is if you beat a team that beats teams with winning records, you are going to be ranked higher. A win against Indiana State (Sagarin #235 of 245) does not count for much. Texas Tech (Sagarin #2) beating Texas (Sagarin #1) skyrocketed Texas Tech. Likewise, JMU is in part benefiting from Duke having the 3 most difficult schedule in the D1 pool.

Another example is that Prairie View A&M is currently 9-1 but only ranked #197 (MO ST is #193 @ 3-7), mostly based on the fact that their schedule is ranked dead last in D1. Their D1 opponents have a combined 31-52 record - this number has non-D1 wins included for time's sake. PV has played 2 non D1 opponents.


Hope that helps.


I guess I understood that much already. I think the 8 CAA teams ahead of UNI is surprising to me. I'll give it a rest.

[URMite]

Chi Panther - The Sagarin ratings are based on the following

- who you have played
- how you have fared against those you have played (both in w/l and points scored)
- who your opponents have played
- how your opponents have fared against those they have played (both in w/l and points scored)

Sagarin starts the season based on the current year's polls and last years results. Sagarin ratings are more accurate toward the end of the season, as they are measuring performance in a fixed pool of variables (FCS & FBS football teams in this discussion). His does not account for wins and losses against non DI teams.

The net is if you beat a team that beats teams with winning records, you are going to be ranked higher. A win against Indiana State (Sagarin #235 of 245) does not count for much. Texas Tech (Sagarin #2) beating Texas (Sagarin #1) skyrocketed Texas Tech. Likewise, JMU is in part benefiting from Duke having the 3 most difficult schedule in the D1 pool.

Another example is that Prairie View A&M is currently 9-1 but only ranked #197 (MO ST is #193 @ 3-7), mostly based on the fact that their schedule is ranked dead last in D1. Their D1 opponents have a combined 31-52 record - this number has non-D1 wins included for time's sake. PV has played 2 non D1 opponents.


Hope that helps.

That makes it sound like the CAA in football has found the MVC solution in basketball (RPI) while the MVC in football hasn't. xpeacex

[Hoyadestroya85]

Apparently all the other coaches were on Mars the day we lost to Villanova.

I was on cloud nine.. it was so much fun

[clenz]

I guess I understood that much already. I think the 8 CAA teams ahead of UNI is surprising to me. I'll give it a rest.
Are you really that shocked that a poll would have that many CAA teams a head of UNI. The CAA is the holy grail of FCS football. UNI is just lucky that the CAA allows us to play.

[Khan4Cats]

That makes it sound like the CAA in football has found the MVC solution in basketball (RPI) while the MVC in football hasn't. xpeacex

Somewhat true. The MVFC could improve its ratings if we had Indiana State play only non-D-I opponents. They might still lose those, but at least they wouldn't count in a lot of computer models.

As it was, conference teams lost a lot of games we should not have ordinarily (YSU vs Liberty and SUU; Illinois State vs Eastern Illinois) and a couple that could have helped (SDSU vs McNeese and Cal-Poly). Even most of our non-conf wins turned out to be against "down" teams (SIU vs Hampton; WIU and SDSU over SFA; NDSU over Central Conn.; UNI over Nicholls)

Even so, we had a better non-conf record than the Big Sky against FCS-only competition.

[UNI Pike]

One other thing I should mention is that the CAA benefits in part from a statistical fluke of not having round robin play. The models attempt to compensate for the number of teams in the league, but have a harder accounting for the unbalanced schedule of large leagues such as CAA, Big 10, Big 12, etc.

At the end of the day, the computers don't care about weather, injuries, flight delays, etc. They look at if you beat someone by more than you were projected to do. In that case, you move up. If you lose by less than you were supposed to, you move up, etc.

Likely anything else, it is simply a tool. It is good at predicting winners and losers in a vacuum of one point in time.