Elon versus UNH

[WrenFGun]

I see a lot of people suggesting that an 8-3 (6-2) Elon team would make the playoffs with a win over Liberty, but an 8-3 (5-3) UNH team would likely be on the outside looking in. I'm just curious why this is the case, other than the tired "another team from the CAA" statement.

If you want to look at the computer numbers, I took a look at last week's numbers. Before getting a quality win over UMass (and seeing Elon fall to Appalachian State), UNH was ahead in the GPI, Sagarin, and Massey. Using the ARC, UNH is a total of 10 spots ahead of Elon. Now, this is BEFORE a win for UNH and a loss by Elon.

Now, let's look at the wins for the two teams, noting that Elon's SOS across NCAA Football is ranked slightly better than UNH's in the Sagarin (144 to 153):

UNH has wins over FBS Army (3-7), URI (2-9), Albany (8-3), UMass (6-5), Hofstra (4-7), Northeastern (2-9), Towson (3-8) and Dartmouth (0-9)

That's a combined record of 28-57, which is absolutely atrocious.

Let's take a look at Elon's wins:

Stony Brook (5-6), Presbyterian (4-7), Georgia Southern (6-5), Samford (5-5), Furman (7-4), The Citadel (4-7), UTC (1-10) and WCU (3-8).

Elon's opponents are 39-52.

So on average, Elon's opponents are a bit better than UNH's, but neither is particularly noteworthy. I'd note that the CAA has been far the best conference in the league, and that if Army were playing in the FCS, they'd likely have more than 3 wins. Still, it's an 11-win difference, so that's significant.

Both teams have nothing but quality losses (UNH to 7-3 W&M, 8-2 'Nova, Elon to 8-3 Richmond, 9-2 Appalachian State, 8-2 Wofford).

So you tell me, is Elon's slightly better but still losing opponent's record during wins enough to overcome the fact that they are likely well behind in the polls and computer polls at this juncture? I don't think there's a wealth of difference between them (Elon's opponent's winning percentage in wins is slightly better, UNH is in a tougher conference and has an FBS win), but what makes Elon essentially a lock at 8-3 but UNH likely out at 8-3? Does the 1-2 record in the last three make the difference, despite the likely better resume in a tougher conference?

It's all purely hypothetical and I'd like other's thoughts.

[WrenFGun]

I should add that if Richmond were to lose to W&M, they'd get in over both a hypothetical UNH loser and a hypothetical Elon winner.

[mcveyrl]

I see a lot of people suggesting that an 8-3 (6-2) Elon team would make the playoffs with a win over Liberty, but an 8-3 (5-3) UNH team would likely be on the outside looking in. I'm just curious why this is the case, other than the tired "another team from the CAA" statement.



I think the above, in bold, is a significant factor. Particularly with the two teams as close as they would be.

[joecooll6]

I see a lot of people suggesting that an 8-3 (6-2) Elon team would make the playoffs with a win over Liberty, but an 8-3 (5-3) UNH team would likely be on the outside looking in. I'm just curious why this is the case, other than the tired "another team from the CAA" statement.

If you want to look at the computer numbers, I took a look at last week's numbers. Before getting a quality win over UMass (and seeing Elon fall to Appalachian State), UNH was ahead in the GPI, Sagarin, and Massey. Using the ARC, UNH is a total of 10 spots ahead of Elon. Now, this is BEFORE a win for UNH and a loss by Elon.

Now, let's look at the wins for the two teams, noting that Elon's SOS across NCAA Football is ranked slightly better than UNH's in the Sagarin (144 to 153):

UNH has wins over FBS Army (3-7), URI (2-9), Albany (8-3), UMass (6-5), Hofstra (4-7), Northeastern (2-9), Towson (3-8) and Dartmouth (0-9)

That's a combined record of 28-57, which is absolutely atrocious.

Let's take a look at Elon's wins:

Stony Brook (5-6), Presbyterian (4-7), Georgia Southern (6-5), Samford (5-5), Furman (7-4), The Citadel (4-7), UTC (1-10) and WCU (3-8).

Elon's opponents are 39-52.

So on average, Elon's opponents are a bit better than UNH's, but neither is particularly noteworthy. I'd note that the CAA has been far the best conference in the league, and that if Army were playing in the FCS, they'd likely have more than 3 wins. Still, it's an 11-win difference, so that's significant.

Both teams have nothing but quality losses (UNH to 7-3 W&M, 8-2 'Nova, Elon to 8-3 Richmond, 9-2 Appalachian State, 8-2 Wofford).

So you tell me, is Elon's slightly better but still losing opponent's record during wins enough to overcome the fact that they are likely well behind in the polls and computer polls at this juncture? I don't think there's a wealth of difference between them (Elon's opponent's winning percentage in wins is slightly better, UNH is in a tougher conference and has an FBS win), but what makes Elon essentially a lock at 8-3 but UNH likely out at 8-3? Does the 1-2 record in the last three make the difference, despite the likely better resume in a tougher conference?

It's all purely hypothetical and I'd like other's thoughts.

I would debate that the CAA is a tougher conference than the SoCon, especially the way that the schedule set up for UNH. I think that for the teams in UNH's division, the SoCon sets up as tougher, but for the teams in the other division, the CAA sets up as tougher. Plus youre looking at a CAA #5 vs a SoCon #3.

[WrenFGun]

I would debate that the CAA is a tougher conference than the SoCon, especially the way that the schedule set up for UNH. I think that for the teams in UNH's division, the SoCon sets up as tougher, but for the teams in the other division, the CAA sets up as tougher. Plus youre looking at a CAA #5 vs a SoCon #3.

I think it's clear that Elon has played a "slightly" better schedule (as demonstrated, their wins are 11 games better than UNH's, though UNH does have an FBS win, which makes up for a bit). I don't think the CAA #5 vs. SoCon #3 holds a ton of water when you consider what happened last year, though unlike last year, the SoCon will actually have a 7 DI win team to choose.

[ElonPride]

Before this past weekend, Elon SOS schedule was higher than UNH's......according to the sagarin, and still is higher than UNH's. That could be a deciding factor.

[mcveyrl]

Before this past weekend, Elon SOS schedule was higher than UNH's......according to the sagarin, and still is higher than UNH's. That could be a deciding factor.

Will it still be stronger after UNH plays Maine and Elon plays Liberty? I wouldn't imagine it would change that much, but how close are they?

[ElonPride]

Will it still be stronger after UNH plays Maine and Elon plays Liberty? I wouldn't imagine it would change that much, but how close are they?

9 places separate UNH and Elon. Elon's SOS only moved up 6 places after playing App St, so I don't think playing Maine would be enough to overtake Elon.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Elon has 12 games, and will be 9-3 if they beat Liberty. Elon's SoS is arguably better than UNH's also, at least in terms of wins. If UNH had the same record and had beaten Nova or even W&M I'd say they get in at 8-3 over a 9-3 Elon team, but since they haven't I think the 9-3 Elon gets in first. The only CAA team with a winning record UNH has beaten is UMass, and if they lose to Hofstra they will have not beaten any. If Samford beats UTC (and they probably will) Elon will have beaten 3 SoCon teams with a winning records.

[Mntneer]

I think people are suggesting Elon will get the nod since the perception was that the committee threw UNH a bone last year when they were on the bubble, and would be unlikely to do so again this year without a compelling reason.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I think people are suggesting Elon will get the nod since the perception was that the committee threw UNH a bone last year when they were on the bubble, and would be unlikely to do so again this year without a compelling reason.

UNH got in last year because they had an FBS win (over a team better than Army) and they also beat Delaware. And because the CAA was very good last year. They really don't have those advantages this year. The SoCon and the CAA are almost even this year as far as I am concerned.

[mcveyrl]

UNH got in last year because they had an FBS win (over a team better than Army) and they also beat Delaware. And because the CAA was very good last year. They really don't have those advantages this year. The SoCon and the CAA are almost even this year as far as I am concerned.

Plus, even though it's not a requirement, it's considered, there weren't enough teams with seven wins to give a serious look from other conferences.

This year, there are. That's why I think between Elon and UNH, who would be even in my book given this scenario, the nod would go to Elon.

[bostonspider]

Well what is the perception about UR (with a loss and therefore a 8-4 record) versus an 9-3 Elon? UR would have beaten Elon and one of their losses would be to a relatively good FBS team in UVA. UR's victories will be over Umass, UMaine, Hofstra, Elon, Georgetown, Towson, VMI and Delaware. Losses to UVA, JMU, VU and W&M. How would that play out?? I am not sure UR really deserves to go with out a win over one of the "good" CAA South teams, but are they any less worthy than an Elon team they beat?

[mcveyrl]

Well what is the perception about UR (with a loss and therefore a 8-4 record) versus an 9-3 Elon? UR would have beaten Elon and one of their losses would be to a relatively good FBS team in UVA. UR's victories will be over Umass, UMaine, Hofstra, Elon, Georgetown, Towson, VMI and Delaware. Losses to UVA, JMU, VU and W&M. How would that play out?? I am not sure UR really deserves to go with out a win over one of the "good" CAA South teams, but are they any less worthy than an Elon team they beat?

I think in that case it will be UR vs. UNH for a spot.

[bostonspider]

So if Maine beats UNH and W&M beats UR, they both should be in as would be JMU and VU. Then does it come down to 8-3 UNH, 9-3 Elon and 8-4 UR for the last spot?

[mcveyrl]

So if Maine beats UNH and W&M beats UR, they both should be in as would be JMU and VU. Then does it come down to 8-3 UNH, 9-3 Elon and 8-4 UR for the last spot?

I think so, and I think that UR and UNH are on the outside looking in. I really don't think the committee wants to put five CAA teams in. But, UR would have a good argument with their head-to-head win.

[bostonspider]

I find it hard to see picking Elon over UR, when one of UR's losses is @ UVA and they won @ Elon. In some ways I think you just throw that FBS loss out, and it is 8-3 UR versus 9-3 Elon. But as a man from Wofford could surely attest to, stranger things have happened...

[santosballnewhampshire]

I find it hard to see picking Elon over UR, when one of UR's losses is @ UVA and they won @ Elon. In some ways I think you just throw that FBS loss out, and it is 8-3 UR versus 9-3 Elon. But as a man from Wofford could surely attest to, stranger things have happened...

I would surely say that Richmond is a better team than Elon, and is definitely in the top 16 teams in the country (win or lose this weekend), but as we all know thats not what the selection committee bases their decisions on.

[mcveyrl]

I find it hard to see picking Elon over UR, when one of UR's losses is @ UVA and they won @ Elon. In some ways I think you just throw that FBS loss out, and it is 8-3 UR versus 9-3 Elon. But as a man from Wofford could surely attest to, stranger things have happened...

Yea, I would pick UR over Elon based on the head-to-head, but wouldn't want to leave it upt to the committee. There's one way to avoid all of this and it's this weekend in Williamsburg...

[bostonspider]

Yea, I would pick UR over Elon based on the head-to-head, but wouldn't want to leave it upt to the committee. There's one way to avoid all of this and it's this weekend in Williamsburg...

Oh I highly agree, and hope that UR can take care of business over a fired up W&M team on Senior Day in Williamsburg.

[mcveyrl]

Oh I highly agree, and hope that UR can take care of business over a fired up W&M team on Senior Day in Williamsburg.

That would be a good one to go to! There's no chance I can talk the wife into a weekend in Williamsburg after six in Harrisonburg and hopefully three more to come...