UNH vs Cal-Poly

[Khan4Cats]

Wanting some discussion:

A lot of people are assuming Cal-Poly is in even if they lose to Wisconsin.
A lot of people are saying UNH is out if they lose to Maine.

Why?

Cal-Poly would be 8-2 with 7 D-I wins, including an FBS win. Best other win is over South Dakota State.

UNH would be 8-3 with 8 D-I wins, including an FBS win. Best other win would be over UMass.

Are we just assuming a Cal-Poly win over McNeese in the cancelled game?

Couldn't we just as easily assume a McNeese win. If McNeese wins this week, they would also be 8-3, but only 6 D-I wins. They wouldn't have an FBS win, but why not ASSUME a Cowboy win over Cal-Poly? Couldn't that put them in the mix, too?

Is it just that UNH would probably be the 5th team from the CAA that gives the nod to Cal-Poly?

Again, just wanting to get some opinions. My own happens to be that Cal-Poly could very well beat Wisconsin this week and then we'll be arguing what seed they deserve.

[appfan2008]

I for one would much rather see cal poly in the field over a fifth caa team!!!

[89Hen]

UNH got the fifth bid last year. Might be hard for the Committee to do it again.

[Stang Fever]

McNeese St would have lost to Poly no if ands butts about it.

[Rob Iola]

Poly caught a huge break by missing out on the McNeese game - would've been 1 of their toughest games (after Montana and Wisconsin) and a loss would've seriously damaged their playoff chances.

I think a 2 loss Poly team is a shoo-in for the playoffs. UNH needed to either beat W&M at home or at Nova to avoid the situation they're in. If Maine wins then they have the better bid.

Of course, all UNH has to do is win and they're in...

[nmatsen]

Poly caught a huge break by missing out on the McNeese game - would've been 1 of their toughest games (after Montana and Wisconsin) and a loss would've seriously damaged their playoff chances.

I think a 2 loss Poly team is a shoo-in for the playoffs. UNH needed to either beat W&M at home or at Nova to avoid the situation they're in. If Maine wins then they have the better bid.

Of course, all UNH has to do is win and they're in...

Yes, 2 loss teams are generally in, 7 D-I win teams with a terrible, terrible, terrible schedule are not. Guess we leave it up to the committee, or Cal Poly, they could go beat Wisconsin and have us talking 2 seed.

[WrenFGun]

The better debate, IMO, is an 8-3 UNH against an 8-3 Elon, where UNH clearly has the better resume, but would be 1-2 in their last three.

Cal Poly could easily be undefeated this season and I think the committee would want them in. It's a debate, but the UNH/Elon debate is a better one. UNH has an FBS win, a win over UMass by 31, a win over what is likely an 8-3 Albany team, and, in all probability, a higher GPI.

Elon, by contrast, has a win over Furman. Their next best win is a win over Georgia Southern on the road, and they beat Furman. UNH's quality of wins seem better than that, IMO, but again, UNH can handle their business and not have to worry about it. There's no doubt to me that UNH would deserve to get in over a 9-2 Liberty team who would have a quality win over a 7-4 Elon team.

[Rob Iola]

The better debate, IMO, is an 8-3 UNH against an 8-3 Elon, where UNH clearly has the better resume, but would be 1-2 in their last three.

Cal Poly could easily be undefeated this season and I think the committee would want them in. It's a debate, but the UNH/Elon debate is a better one. UNH has an FBS win, a win over UMass by 31, a win over what is likely an 8-3 Albany team, and, in all probability, a higher GPI.

Elon, by contrast, has a win over Furman. Their next best win is a win over Georgia Southern on the road, and they beat Furman. UNH's quality of wins seem better than that, IMO, but again, UNH can handle their business and not have to worry about it. There's no doubt to me that UNH would deserve to get in over a 9-2 Liberty team who would have a quality win over a 7-4 Elon team.
You state a good case, but I just don't see the committee giving 3 or 4 at-large bids to the CAA and shutting out the Socon (unless, of course, Liberty wins)...

[FCS Go!]

Cal Poly's win @ S. Dakota St is the difference here. Two touchdown win at their place. No smack intended but I don't think UNH would beat S. Dakota St in Brookings and maybe not at home either. UNH lost two of the three games that most of us would call tough. Their best win was last week though and its always good to finish strong. This week will decide their fate.

[FCS Go!]

The better debate, IMO, is an 8-3 UNH against an 8-3 Elon, where UNH clearly has the better resume, but would be 1-2 in their last three.

Cal Poly could easily be undefeated this season and I think the committee would want them in. It's a debate, but the UNH/Elon debate is a better one. UNH has an FBS win, a win over UMass by 31, a win over what is likely an 8-3 Albany team, and, in all probability, a higher GPI.

Elon, by contrast, has a win over Furman. Their next best win is a win over Georgia Southern on the road, and they beat Furman. UNH's quality of wins seem better than that, IMO, but again, UNH can handle their business and not have to worry about it. There's no doubt to me that UNH would deserve to get in over a 9-2 Liberty team who would have a quality win over a 7-4 Elon team.

Yes! xnodx

[rcny46]

Cal Poly's win @ S. Dakota St is the difference here. Two touchdown win at their place. No smack intended but I don't think UNH would beat S. Dakota St in Brookings and maybe not at home either. UNH lost two of the three games that most of us would call tough. Their best win was last week though and its always good to finish strong. This week will decide their fate.


I can't deny that I'm a homer when it comes to UNH,but putting that aside,and looking at the match-up objectively,I really think that they could handle SDSU home or away.

[WrenFGun]

One of the best teams from the CAA should be able to handle one of the best teams from the MVFC, based on the rankings. SDSU backers are basing their thoughts on a theoretically quality MVFC and comparing it to an actually quality CAA. UNH should be favored to win that game.

[smcwildcat]

I can't deny that I'm a homer when it comes to UNH,but putting that aside,and looking at the match-up objectively,I really think that they could handle SDSU home or away.

AGREED are you kidding of course they would handle regardless toman is a very underadted Q 25-7 2,400 yrds

a D that has 13 TO in last three games

[smcwildcat]

would love to see unh cal-poly but idk if we could ever stop barden

[Houndawg]

One of the best teams from the CAA should be able to handle one of the best teams from the MVFC, based on the rankings. SDSU backers are basing their thoughts on a theoretically quality MVFC and comparing it to an actually quality CAA. UNH should be favored to win that game.

xrolleyesx SDSU will finish middle-of-the-pack this year, and they would light UNH up.

[WrenFGun]

xrolleyesx SDSU will finish middle-of-the-pack this year, and they would light UNH up.

Oh yes? Based on? Was it taking undefeated UNI to the brink last year that did it? Or is the better record that UNH has? Perhaps it's the FBS win? You tell me.

[Chi Panther]

Oh yes? Based on? Was it taking undefeated UNI to the brink last year that did it? Or is the better record that UNH has? Perhaps it's the FBS win? You tell me.

Santos was a gamer!!!!xthumbsupx xbowx

[WrenFGun]

Santos was a gamer!!!!xthumbsupx xbowx

Yes, he was!

Toman's just as good this season.

[slostang]

I think that the playoff committee will want to see the number one offense (493 yd/gm) and the number one scoring offense (46.44 pts/gm).

Cal Poly schedule turned out to be less than expected. I don't think anyone was thinking it was a bad schedule at the start of the year. They openned @ San Diego State, Montana, @ McNeese, and @ Northwestern State. Throw in a trip to Brookings to play South Dakota State, UC Davis at home and a trip to Madison to take on Wisconsin. Unfortunately Ike took away the McNeese State.

Cal Poly is a short FG miss away from being 9-0 with a win over top ten Montana. Does anyone really think they do not deserve a trip to the playoffs? Would you like to play Cal Poly in the first round? Good luck stopping the number one rated QB (Jonathan Dally - 193.67 - 1,680 passing yards with 18 TDs and only 1 INT - 526 rushing yars with 8 TDs in only 9 games), one of the best WR in the FCS (Ramses Barden - 118 yd/gm and 15 TDs in 9 games), to great Slot Backs (James Noble - 8.4 yd/carry 8 TDs and Ryan Mole - 8.0 yds/carry 10 TDs) and two great Fullbacks (Jon Hall - 6.9 yds/carry 2 TDs and Jordan Yocum - 8.7 yds/carry 3 TDS).

[malibudude]

Wanting some discussion:

A lot of people are assuming Cal-Poly is in even if they lose to Wisconsin.
A lot of people are saying UNH is out if they lose to Maine.

Why?

Cal-Poly would be 8-2 with 7 D-I wins, including an FBS win. Best other win is over South Dakota State.

UNH would be 8-3 with 8 D-I wins, including an FBS win. Best other win would be over UMass.

Are we just assuming a Cal-Poly win over McNeese in the cancelled game?

Couldn't we just as easily assume a McNeese win. If McNeese wins this week, they would also be 8-3, but only 6 D-I wins. They wouldn't have an FBS win, but why not ASSUME a Cowboy win over Cal-Poly? Couldn't that put them in the mix, too?

Is it just that UNH would probably be the 5th team from the CAA that gives the nod to Cal-Poly?

Again, just wanting to get some opinions. My own happens to be that Cal-Poly could very well beat Wisconsin this week and then we'll be arguing what seed they deserve.

CP has lost one game...to Montana. Like UNH they have one of two FBS wins. They are kind of pounding everyone else on their schedule. You just do not seem to feel the love for Cali or Cal Poly. Bad experience at the border on the way to WallyWorld? xnodx

[Houndawg]

Oh yes? Based on? Was it taking undefeated UNI to the brink last year that did it? Or is the better record that UNH has? Perhaps it's the FBS win? You tell me.

Based on my opinion, which, until they play, is as valid as yours.xnodx

SDSU is more than good enough to play in your league. As for undefeated UNI being taken to the brink last year, SIU played them even closer than UNH did. The UNI/SIU game was still in doubt after the clock ran out.

[Retro]

McNeese St would have lost to Poly no if ands butts about it.

xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Khan4Cats]

CP has lost one game...to Montana. Like UNH they have one of two FBS wins. They are kind of pounding everyone else on their schedule. You just do not seem to feel the love for Cali or Cal Poly. Bad experience at the border on the way to WallyWorld? xnodx

Not at all if you read the whole comment. I was just wondering the thinking behind why everyone seems to think Cal-Poly is a lock to be in, even if they lose this week and many of the same people think New Hampshire has to win to get in. They seem to me to have nearly identical records and resumes. I think it is just the "5th" CAA team argument again.

I think Elon and Wofford have more to be worried about with a loss, maybe Southern Illinois, too.

[Rob Iola]

Based on my opinion, which, until they play, is as valid as yours.xnodx

SDSU is more than good enough to play in your league. As for undefeated UNI being taken to the brink last year, SIU played them even closer than UNH did. The UNI/SIU game was still in doubt after the clock ran out.
What? SDSU would go 4-7 in the CAA South, 5-6 in the CAA North. JMU, Richmond, Nova, W&M, UNH, and Maine (+ 1 FBS OCC - pretty much required in these parts) would hang losses on SDSU.

Put another way, Delaware was the worst CAA team ASU faced in last year's playoffs, and we're not even competitive this year...

[RabidRabbit]

SDSU played a lot of close games this year, winning two and losing 2. Three teams tagged the Jacks hard, Iowa St., UNI, Cal Poly.

I'll note that none of our losses came to teams not still in this play-off discussions.

We have a schedule of 3 years playing a CAA team, starting in '10. Not much room to add a team, but look Jacks up if want to improve your GPI ratings.

[slostang]

xlolx xlolx xlolx

I know that comparing scores means very little, but we sure did a whole lot better against Northwestern State in Turpin Stadium than McNeese State did and that is our only common oppent. Cal Poly won 52-18 and McNeese State won 24-17. Maybe we should ask the Demon fans who they think would have won between Cal Poly and McNeese State if Ike did not cancel the game.

Cal Poly also beat UC Davis 51-18. That is the same team that played a very tight game against the SLC Champs UCA in Conway, losing 24-21.

I am not saying.......I just saying. :)

[rcny46]

SDSU played a lot of close games this year, winning two and losing 2. Three teams tagged the Jacks hard, Iowa St., UNI, Cal Poly.

I'll note that none of our losses came to teams not still in this play-off discussions.

We have a schedule of 3 years playing a CAA team, starting in '10. Not much room to add a team, but look Jacks up if want to improve your GPI ratings.


Which CAA teams will you be playing?

[slostang]

Which CAA teams will you be playing?

Delware.

[McNeese75]

McNeese St would have lost to Poly no if ands butts about it.

xlolx Got a link? How about a crystal ball? xcoffeex

[WrenFGun]

Based on my opinion, which, until they play, is as valid as yours.xnodx

SDSU is more than good enough to play in your league. As for undefeated UNI being taken to the brink last year, SIU played them even closer than UNH did. The UNI/SIU game was still in doubt after the clock ran out.

Yes. So based on the statistical evidence you have and the many times you've watched UNH play this season...those factors suggest that South Dakota State will "light up" (your words, not mine) UNH? I don't doubt it would be a competitive game, but "light up" one of the best offenses in FCS? Come on.

[WrenFGun]

A lot of this stuff about an 8-3 UNH team not getting in has to do with the rest of this board disliking UNH for getting in at 7-4 last year, and the fact that they'll probably be an 8-3 team that misses the playoffs, unless Elon loses, from a major conference. Whether that's Elon, Southern Illinois, Wofford or UNH, I don't really know. If UNH got in at 7-4 with an FBS win last year, it's pretty hard to fathom not getting in at 8-3 with an FBS win.

[Rob Iola]

A lot of this stuff about an 8-3 UNH team not getting in has to do with the rest of this board disliking UNH for getting in at 7-4 last year, and the fact that they'll probably be an 8-3 team that misses the playoffs, unless Elon loses, from a major conference. Whether that's Elon, Southern Illinois, Wofford or UNH, I don't really know. If UNH got in at 7-4 with an FBS win last year, it's pretty hard to fathom not getting in at 8-3 with an FBS win.
A 7-4 UNH team that came within 1 play of winning at #1 UNI...

[LehighFan11]

UNH has a valid argument at 8-3 vs. alot of teams but vs. 8-2, yea right. Play that game on a neutral field and I'll take Poly by 21.

[slostang]

xlolx Got a link? How about a crystal ball? xcoffeex

Win or lose, I was really looking forward to the game with McNeese State. I had been planning the trip since they announced the schedule. I was really looking forward to what is suppose to be some of the best tailgating in the FCS. I was really disappointed when the game was canceled.

[WrenFGun]

UNH has a valid argument at 8-3 vs. alot of teams but vs. 8-2, yea right. Play that game on a neutral field and I'll take Poly by 21.

God help a game between Cal Poly and UNH. That game might finish in the 60's for each side.

[slostang]

God help a game between Cal Poly and UNH. That game might finish in the 60's for each side.

It would be an offensive explosion. First team to triple digits wins. xlolx

[Houndawg]

Yes. So based on the statistical evidence you have and the many times you've watched UNH play this season...those factors suggest that South Dakota State will "light up" (your words, not mine) UNH? I don't doubt it would be a competitive game, but "light up" one of the best offenses in FCS? Come on.

Statistics are like bikinis, what they show is important, what they don't show is vital; btw, SDSU is one of the best offenses in FCS.

[Anovafan]

I posted this in another thread, thought it should be over here. Personally, I think Cal Poly and UNH both deserve to be in the dance.



"I really don't want to sound like I am hating on Cal Poly, but as we get closer to the playoffs, we should all go back and look at the schedules and the results. I just did for Cal Poly.

Their opponent's combined record? It is 41-55, and 10 of those wins are from Montana.

Cal Poly hitting their stride in the last 3? Well, it was against Idaho State (0-11), NC Central (3-7) and UC Davis (5-6), not exactly the cream of the FCS crop.

They beat who they were supposed to beat, they lost to the only good team they played, and they will likely lose to Wisconsin. Now I am not saying they aren't a good team, personally I think they are very good and they will get to prove it in the playoffs. But I don't think they are even in the same breath as JMU or App. St. right now based on past performance.

Here is their full resume:

Cal Poly Mustangs

Aug 30 - W at San Diego St, 29-27 (1-10)
Sep 6 - L vs. Montana, 28-30 (10-1)
Sep 13 - Cancelled at McNeese State
Sep 20 - W at Northwestern St, 52-18 (6-5)
Oct 4 - W vs. South Dakota, 49-22 (6-4)
Oct 18 - W at South Dakota St, 42-28 (6-5)
Oct 25 - W vs. Southern Utah, 69-41 (4-6)
Nov 1 - W vs. Idaho State, 49-10 (0-11)
Nov 8 - W vs. NC Central, 49-3 (3-7)
Nov 15 - W vs. UC Davis, 51-28 (5-6)
Nov 22 - at Wisconsin, 3:30 PM ET

Opponent’s Record 41-55"

[SLO_LIFE]

I posted this in another thread, thought it should be over here. Personally, I think Cal Poly and UNH both deserve to be in the dance.



"I really don't want to sound like I am hating on Cal Poly, but as we get closer to the playoffs, we should all go back and look at the schedules and the results. I just did for Cal Poly.

Their opponent's combined record? It is 41-55, and 10 of those wins are from Montana.

Cal Poly hitting their stride in the last 3? Well, it was against Idaho State (0-11), NC Central (3-7) and UC Davis (5-6), not exactly the cream of the FCS crop.

They beat who they were supposed to beat, they lost to the only good team they played, and they will likely lose to Wisconsin. Now I am not saying they aren't a good team, personally I think they are very good and they will get to prove it in the playoffs. But I don't think they are even in the same breath as JMU or App. St. right now based on past performance.

Here is their full resume:

Cal Poly Mustangs

Aug 30 - W at San Diego St, 29-27 (1-10)
Sep 6 - L vs. Montana, 28-30 (10-1)
Sep 13 - Cancelled at McNeese State
Sep 20 - W at Northwestern St, 52-18 (6-5)
Oct 4 - W vs. South Dakota, 49-22 (6-4)
Oct 18 - W at South Dakota St, 42-28 (6-5)
Oct 25 - W vs. Southern Utah, 69-41 (4-6)
Nov 1 - W vs. Idaho State, 49-10 (0-11)
Nov 8 - W vs. NC Central, 49-3 (3-7)
Nov 15 - W vs. UC Davis, 51-28 (5-6)
Nov 22 - at Wisconsin, 3:30 PM ET

Opponent’s Record 41-55"

I view beating Davis by 23 as a quality win. Better than Weber's 28-point win over 6-5 NAU, (**Edit** or its 23-point win over Montana State) IMO. Davis is one of the best FCS teams with a losing record you'll find. Its W-L record is deceiving: It lost by three @ 9-2 Central Arkansas, by four @ 10-1 Montana, and lost by three on a last-second TD pass @ bowl-eligible FBS San Jose State.

Going into the game against Cal Poly, they ranked 5th nationally in run defense, giving up just 74 ypg (Poly ran for 427 yards on Saturday). Cal Poly's defense held Davis' top-10 offense to about 100 yards less than its season average, and only allowed the Aggies 64 total yards after halftime.

Coming off of this weekend, I'd have to say CP is playing its best ball of the season on offense, defense, and special teams (which was the culprit in the Montana loss for the Mustangs). But--especially because of the Ike cancellation--I don't see Cal Poly's body of work comparing very favorably with ASU's or JMU's. That said, I do believe that if either of those two teams were to meet Cal Poly in the playoffs, they would find themselves in a fair fight.

[Green26]

If UNH wins this weekend, both teams should be in the playoffs. CP is a very good team. Davis is probably better than its record. CP would have beaten McNeese. CP special teams may be improved, but CP's place-kicking game is terrible, i.e. it's kicker is terrible. 1-8 over 23 yards, to be exact.

[slostang]

If UNH wins this weekend, both teams should be in the playoffs. CP is a very good team. Davis is probably better than its record. CP would have beaten McNeese. CP special teams may be improved, but CP's place-kicking game is terrible, i.e. it's kicker is terrible. 1-8 over 23 yards, to be exact.

He has been terrible this year. He is 6-13 on FGs on the year. He should have made the Montana FG though. He has never been a long kicker, but he is usually fairly accurate from 30 yards in. This year he is 5 of 7 from inside 30 yards. One of the two misses inside of 30 yards came against Montana.

I think missing that FG against Montana has gotten in his head. Last year he was 6 of 8 on FGs (all under 40 yards) and 56 of 57 on extra points.

[Green26]

The CP kicker is 5-5 from 23 yards and in. He is 1 - 8 outside of 23. He has made zero kicks from between 24-35.

He is not "fairly accurate" from inside 30 (but outside of 23). He has missed all of his kicks in that range. Last year, he made 2 kicks between 21-29. So, between 24-29, he has made 2 kicks in his career. Don't these stats show that he is fairly inaccurate in that range.

Sorry, but it's just not credible to say he should have made the kick against Montana. The stats don't support that statement. In fact, the stats seem to support an argument that he shouldn't have made that kick.

[Poly Pigskin]

He did make a decent kick against Davis (just shy of 40 I think?) that got taken off the board due to a roughing the kicker call. It would be nice for him to get another one like that next week, so he's got at least a bit of confidence going into the playoffs. I'm sure he'll be called upon much more than he has been against all the cupcakes.

[slostang]

The CP kicker is 5-5 from 23 yards and in. He is 1 - 8 outside of 23. He has made zero kicks from between 24-35.

He is not "fairly accurate" from inside 30 (but outside of 23). He has missed all of his kicks in that range. Last year, he made 2 kicks between 21-29. So, between 24-29, he has made 2 kicks in his career. Don't these stats show that he is fairly inaccurate in that range.

Sorry, but it's just not credible to say he should have made the kick against Montana. The stats don't support that statement. In fact, the stats seem to support an argument that he shouldn't have made that kick.

I figured I would get you going on that one PR.

The great thing is I don't think it will come down to a FG if we get a rematch with the Griz in the playoffs. I don't think we will need it. xsmiley_wix

[Tailbone]

I figured I would get you going on that one PR.

The great thing is I don't think it will come down to a FG if we get a rematch with the Griz in the playoffs. I don't think we will need it. xsmiley_wix

...Because you'll be needing touchdowns. :D

[slostang]

...Because you'll be needing touchdowns. :D

I have nothing but respect for the Griz. I am just messing with Greenie.xnodx

[SLO_LIFE]

He did make a decent kick against Davis (just shy of 40 I think?) that got taken off the board due to a roughing the kicker call.

He also won the San Diego State game for Cal Poly as time expired. I would agree that the miss against Montana threw him into a funk. I mean, can you imagine? Even I as a fan think about that kick a lot--especially in the context of an otherwise perfect season.

[McNeese75]

If UNH wins this weekend, both teams should be in the playoffs. CP is a very good team. Davis is probably better than its record. CP would have beaten McNeese. CP special teams may be improved, but CP's place-kicking game is terrible, i.e. it's kicker is terrible. 1-8 over 23 yards, to be exact.

xrolleyesx oh so Montana can get lucky with a win at CP but McNeese was a dead lock to lose to them at home, PLEASEEEEEEEEEE.

[McNeese75]

Win or lose, I was really looking forward to the game with McNeese State. I had been planning the trip since they announced the schedule. I was really looking forward to what is suppose to be some of the best tailgating in the FCS. I was really disappointed when the game was canceled.

Believe me, you were not alone in your disappointment over the game cancellation. That game was going to be big.

[Pauly LB]

Believe me, you were not alone in your disappointment over the game cancellation. That game was going to be big.

Slostang is not the only Cal Poly fan that was disappointed in having to cancel the trip. However, after living in Houston and watching Hurricane Alicia go directly over our home, I knew better than to be there for Hurricane Ike. It is a shame that both teams could not agree to moving the game either to Cal Poly or to a neutral site. And who knows, perhaps the two teams might meet if both make the playoffs.

[tingly]

Poly lost to Montana mainly because Poly couldn't drive inside the Montana 20 yard line for a 30-minute stretch. The missed field goal and the fumble safety were the more glaring reasons, but not the main one.

[SLOSTYLE]

You dont think the main reason cal poly lost that game was because of the missed field goal as time was expiring from 25 yards out? i can guarantee that just about every montana fan and player were expecting that kick to go through. it was a hard fought game and if they play again nothing will change. i just would hope that it could be in the later rounds

[WrenFGun]

I've been going over this in my head a bit more, and think this deserves more scrutiny.

Cal Poly's opponents records:

San Diego State (1-10), Montana (10-1), Northwestern State (6-5), South Dakota State (6-5), South Dakota (6-4, 4 Non-Counters), SUU (4-6), ISU (0-11), NC Central (3-7), UC Davis (5-6).

Their wins over San Diego State, Northwestern State, SDSU, SUU, ISU, UC Davis and NC Central are the ones that count toward playoff discussion, so those are the ones we'll consider. That means, in the games they won, their opponents were 25-50 (.333%). That is worse than UNH's OPP WIN%, as far as I'm aware. If not, it's very similar (I believe UNH's is 29-53). If Northwestern State and South Dakota State lose on the road this weekend, Cal Poly will not have a victory over a team with a winning record. By contrast, a UMass win at home over Hofstra would give UNH with two wins over teams above .500 (Albany, as well). Cal Poly lost to the only good team they played this season. Any argument you make for South Dakota State or UC Davis can be made for UMass and Northeastern, as well (remember, Northeastern beat Davis).

So what is it that has Cal Poly so firmly in the field and UNH on the outside looking in with a loss?

[Khan4Cats]

I've been going over this in my head a bit more, and think this deserves more scrutiny.

Cal Poly's opponents records:

San Diego State (1-10), Montana (10-1), Northwestern State (6-5), South Dakota State (6-5), South Dakota (6-4, 4 Non-Counters), SUU (4-6), ISU (0-11), NC Central (3-7), UC Davis (5-6).

Their wins over San Diego State, Northwestern State, SDSU, SUU, ISU, UC Davis and NC Central are the ones that count toward playoff discussion, so those are the ones we'll consider. That means, in the games they won, their opponents were 25-50 (.333%). That is worse than UNH's OPP WIN%, as far as I'm aware. If not, it's very similar (I believe UNH's is 29-53). If Northwestern State and South Dakota State lose on the road this weekend, Cal Poly will not have a victory over a team with a winning record. By contrast, a UMass win at home over Hofstra would give UNH with two wins over teams above .500 (Albany, as well). Cal Poly lost to the only good team they played this season. Any argument you make for South Dakota State or UC Davis can be made for UMass and Northeastern, as well (remember, Northeastern beat Davis).

So what is it that has Cal Poly so firmly in the field and UNH on the outside looking in with a loss?

Thanks, I think you stated my original question much better than I did.

I know some will throw the cancelled McNeese State game out, but what about McNeese in that scenario? If they had won that game (NOT inconceivable), they could have been 9-3 with 7 D-I wins if they win this week. As it is, they could be 8-3 with 6 D-I wins with the cancelled game not yet factored in.

[SLOSTYLE]

first of all, counting sdsu's schedule as a true 1-10, when they are fbs is a little unfair. if they played in fcs, they would no doubt be .500, no matter how bad they are in fbs. also, poly has been getting a ton of hatred for their "weak" schedule. before the season started, this could have been considered the toughest non conference schedules in all of fcs. TWO fbs teams on the road. Montana at home(ranked 5 preseason) two trips to louisiana (mcneese was top ten in most polls) a trip to south dakota st( preseason rank was top 20 in every poll)

granted, most of these teams have not quite performed like expected, but thats still a difficult schedule, and poly has dispatched most of those teams quite easily, with the exception of montana, a game that could easily have gone poly's way.

[UNHFootballAlum]

[QUOTE=SLOSTYLE;1218615]first of all, counting sdsu's schedule as a true 1-10, when they are fbs is a little unfair. if they played in fcs, they would no doubt be .500, no matter how bad they are in fbs.

If you counted UNH's win over Army the same way you have for SDSU then UNH's opponenets win/loss record would be even better. Army would be at least .500 in the FCS. It still does not change the arguement

[SLOSTYLE]

thats true, i didnt think about that. But i really dont think you can fault poly for their non conference schedule, it looked extremely tough before the year, and its not their fault the teams didnt perform. unfortunately you cant schedule teams midway through the season, and poly plays in a super weak conference, so they are left with trying to plan a schedule before a season that will look respectable, sometimes it doesnt quite work out like expected

[UNHFootballAlum]

It does not matter, UNH goes down to Maine tomorrow.

We like people to root against us....we will see how quiet you are after the game

[WrenFGun]

It does not matter, UNH goes down to Maine tomorrow.

Will you please explain why you hate UNH so much? It's almost comical.

[txst_wtc]

Dont forget that this 'crappy' Northwestern St. might still make the playoffs! I know that this doesnt mean that they are good, just saying...

I actually think, if they would have played McNeese would have beatin Cal Poly, but..... they would have beatin UNH too!
They only have three losses... By 3 to Texas State, By 3 to Nicholls and a 7 point heart breaker to FBS #22 North Carolina.

[Stang Fever]

People dont understand how bad the Northwestern st game was. They didnt even belong on the same field as Cal Poly.... maybe they have turned it around but when we played them. It wasnt even close

[Native]

UNH and Cal Poly are both good teams likely to get into the playoffs. xbowx

Each team has demonstrated weaknesses and is unlikely to make it to the finals. xrolleyesx

Neither is likely to get a seed. xrotatehx

Both are probably stronger than Northern Iowa.xnodx

[WrenFGun]

People dont understand how bad the Northwestern st game was. They didnt even belong on the same field as Cal Poly.... maybe they have turned it around but when we played them. It wasnt even close

You can say the same thing about Albany for us. There isn't a tremendous amount of difference between the teams. There isn't a tremendous difference between Cal Poly and UNH, either, accept the national perception is unfairly skewed in the direction of the former. Cal Poly doesn't have near the resume of even Montana, Weber State, Villanova, Richmond or Southern Illinois, and yet, they are well ahead of them in polls and projections. Cal Poly should be considered around the same level as teams like W&M, UNH, UMaine, Elon and Wofford, IMO, at least in terms of resume.

[ThreadStopper]

How do you keep a team ranked #3 by people that are supposed to be in the know out of a 16 team playoff field?xconfusedx

[UNHFan]

Wait Toman as good as Santos? People if anyone on this board doesnt think Santos is one of the great college football players of all time. You need you head examined!! 1st game? came off the bench to beat defending champs Delaware! Next week off to Rutgers and does what? 5 TD's and is USA Today Player of the week for all of CFB hhmm 5 TD's ring a bell? Thats what he did againt Rutgers, Marshall, Northwestern his ending numbers are things of Legend! 123 TD's!! Please I love Toman and hope he becomes a legend but lets not pass Ricky off just yet.

[WrenFGun]

Wait Toman as good as Santos? People if anyone on this board doesnt think Santos is one of the great college football players of all time. You need you head examined!! 1st game? came off the bench to beat defending champs Delaware! Next week off to Rutgers and does what? 5 TD's and is USA Today Player of the week for all of CFB hhmm 5 TD's ring a bell? Thats what he did againt Rutgers, Marshall, Northwestern his ending numbers are things of Legend! 123 TD's!! Please I love Toman and hope he becomes a legend but lets not pass Ricky off just yet.

Toman's been AS GOOD as Santos, statistically, this season. I will wholeheartedly admit that no one can make something out of nothing as well as Santos could, probably ever. Toman is not Santos, but statistically, he's putting up similar #'s this season.

As for Cal Poly, voters ranking them third does not mean they've adequately examined their resume. By the information I've provided, they are pretty clearly either overrated in the polls or being voted on entirely on hypothetical terms (ie, Cal Poly has better talent than SIU, so despite the worse resume, they would beat SIU). There's no way Cal Poly can be that high in any part from their resume.

[nmatsen]

I never really thought Santos was that great!

[Pauly LB]

I've been going over this in my head a bit more, and think this deserves more scrutiny.

Cal Poly's opponents records:

San Diego State (1-10), Montana (10-1), Northwestern State (6-5), South Dakota State (6-5), South Dakota (6-4, 4 Non-Counters), SUU (4-6), ISU (0-11), NC Central (3-7), UC Davis (5-6).

Their wins over San Diego State, Northwestern State, SDSU, SUU, ISU, UC Davis and NC Central are the ones that count toward playoff discussion, so those are the ones we'll consider. That means, in the games they won, their opponents were 25-50 (.333%). That is worse than UNH's OPP WIN%, as far as I'm aware. If not, it's very similar (I believe UNH's is 29-53). If Northwestern State and South Dakota State lose on the road this weekend, Cal Poly will not have a victory over a team with a winning record. By contrast, a UMass win at home over Hofstra would give UNH with two wins over teams above .500 (Albany, as well). Cal Poly lost to the only good team they played this season. Any argument you make for South Dakota State or UC Davis can be made for UMass and Northeastern, as well (remember, Northeastern beat Davis).

So what is it that has Cal Poly so firmly in the field and UNH on the outside looking in with a loss?

You have to remember that when the schedules were finalized many thought that Cal Poly, with games against FBS San Diego State, perenial FCS power Montana, and back-to-back games in Louisiana (McNeese State and Northwestern State) might be lucky to split the first four games. Who was to know that Hurricane Ike would cause the McNeese State game to be cancelled? Who was to know that San Diego State, who was supposed to be markedly improved, would be a doormate within FBS? Cal Poly LOST a game on an extra point type field goal to Montana and came out of their first four games with a 2 win and 1 loss record with one cancellation. NOT TOO BAD. After that they have absolutely blown away each and every team that they have beaten. Cal Poly is an outstanding team that not only deserves playoff consideration -- they deserve to be there.

New Hampshire is a good team that also deserves playoff consideration -- no doubt about that. BUT they already played their sentimental playoff pick last year when it appears that the committee picked NH so that the fans could have another shot at seeing the great Ricky Santos perform. With a 7 win and 4 loss record NH was a marginal pick at best and other more deserving teams were left out. That was fine but unfortunately for New Hampshire it was one and out.

For New Hampshire I would not expect such consideration this year if the committee considers you to be a marginal choice. For Cal Poly, they are the #1 offensive team in FCS and I have to believe that the committee is going to consider that most of the FCS nation is going to want to see the #1 offense in the playoffs.

At this point we are both depending on a group of people to make this decision called the selection committee. The only thing that we all know if that you never really know what can happen in a committee setting. Sunday we will all know...

[Pauly LB]

People dont understand how bad the Northwestern st game was. They didnt even belong on the same field as Cal Poly.... maybe they have turned it around but when we played them. It wasnt even close

The score was Cal Poly 52 -- Northwestern State 18 at Northwestern State. Cal Poly took the foot off the gas late in the game -- it could have been much worse. The game was NOT as close as the score indicates.

[Khan4Cats]

You have to remember that when the schedules were finalized many thought that Cal Poly, with games against FBS San Diego State, perenial FCS power Montana, and back-to-back games in Louisiana (McNeese State and Northwestern State) might be lucky to split the first four games. Who was to know that Hurricane Ike would cause the McNeese State game to be cancelled? Who was to know that San Diego State, who was supposed to be markedly improved, would be a doormate within FBS? Cal Poly LOST a game on an extra point type field goal to Montana and came out of their first four games with a 2 win and 1 loss record with one cancellation. NOT TOO BAD. After that they have absolutely blown away each and every team that they have beaten. Cal Poly is an outstanding team that not only deserves playoff consideration -- they deserve to be there.


You know, when the season started, everyone thought the Missouri Valley would be a minefield of powerhouse teams with the likes of the XDSU's being added to UNI, SIU, YSU, and WIU. But it turned out that YSU totally disintegrated, NDSU proved not so tough in a REAL football conference, WIU was overrated as usual, and the last two standing were about the same as usual.

UNI doesn't get credit for beating YSU and based on YSU's pre-season expectations, Cal-Poly shouldn't be given credit for their "what could have been" schedule.

I hope UNH wins today, because I think they are deserving of a play-off bid. Just as much as Cal-Poly is. Like I said, their resumes are nearly identical. It might also be nice if McNeese wins and Texas State loses, so the Cowboys can get in as well. Then we can find out all about cancelled game in round two after Cal-Poly and McNeese knock out the two Big Sky entrants in round 1. (Just to tweak the Big Sky contingent:p )

As for the Weber fan who said UNH and Cal-Poly were both better than UNI. xnonox Just pay attention to the signature.xpeacex

[Houndawg]

UNH and Cal Poly are both good teams likely to get into the playoffs. xbowx

Each team has demonstrated weaknesses and is unlikely to make it to the finals. xrolleyesx

Neither is likely to get a seed. xrotatehx

Both are probably stronger than Northern Iowa.xnodx

Pretty good stuff they're smoking in Utah.xnodx

[El Griz]

Uhhhmmmmm. Cal Poly can play with Wisconsin tough. UNH would not be able.