Playoff Scenarios - The Way You Like

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:

The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs by decree of the Ivy school presidents.; - The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game, so only second place teams and below are playoff eligible. The MAAC, NEC, Great West Conference, Big South and PFL are eligible for the playoffs, but do not have an automatic bid. In the Southland, Central Arkansas is in a transition year and not eligible therefore the second place team would get the Autobid.

Below, take a look at the prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes heading into the last two weeks of the regular season. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the 16-team field, as determined by Me, and not by current top 25 rank or potential playoff seeds. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they received the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field of 16, regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the tournament.

1. James Madison (9-1, 7-0 CAA)
The Games: at Towson (11/22)

Outlook: AQ The Dukes are in the playoffs and have secured the Autobid. Winning this weekend would give the Dukes the #1 seed. One loss could still have them as a Top 4 seed, but no guarantee.

2. Appalachian State (9-2, 7-0 Southern)
The Games: at Western Carolina (11/22)

Outlook: AQ The Mountaineers clinched the Autobid this weekend with a close win over Elon. No that ASU is in the field the WCU game has an even bigger prize, home field advantage as the #2 seed, a win over their rival locks that up. Based on their play this year, ASU will need homefield advantage if they hope to reach Chattanooga again.

3. Weber State (9-2, 7-0 Big Sky)
The Games: E. Washington (11/22)

Outlook: AQ Weber State took care of business this weekend and got the Autobid for the big sky. A tough game with E. Washington, but winning gives them a likely a #3 seed


4. Montana (10-1, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Montana St. (11/22)

Outlook: IN With their only loss to top ranked Weber State, Montana looks is the #2 team from the big sky. Hard to deny Montana a Top 4 seed, but it seems unlikely that the Big Sky could grab two, it will certainly be discussed. More importantly is the large fan base that will turnout. This makes Montana an easy choice when it comes to money.


5. . Villanova (8-2, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: at Delaware (11/22)

Outlook: IN Villanova secured a post season bid with a win this past weekend. However a win over Delaware puts them in the discussion for a top seed. Even with a loss, the wildcats are in the field.

6. Wofford (8-2, 6-1 Southern)
The Games: Furman (11/22)

Outlook: IN Wofford did what they needed to do the last two weeks – WIN. The Terriors have punched their ticket to the dance. A tough in state game with Furman remains and I think the outcome will affect Wofford’s chances of flying to their first round game.

7. South Carolina State (9-2. 7-0 MEAC)
The Games: at NC A&T (11/22)

Outlook: AQ SCSt has captured the Autobid from the MEAC. Now the Bulldogs need to keep winning. The first round opponent still looks to be Wofford or ASU.

8. Southern Illinois (8-2, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: at Illinois St (11/22)

Outlook: IN S. Illinois clinched a playoff berth this weekend. However winning against Illinois State will secure the Autobid and gives the committee something to talk about when it comes to seeding. A loss still has them in but they will hand the Autobid over to N. Iowa.

9. Northern Iowa (9-2, 7-1 MVC)
The Games: at S. Utah (11/22)

Outlook: IN A 10-2 regular season record looks to be a lock with and a potential top 4 seed but a down year in the MVC could lead to no seed at all. Either way a win puts them in the top 4 discussion. With a win and S. Illinois loss, they capture the MVC Autobid.

10. Cal Poly (8-1, 3-0 Great West)
The Games: at Wisconsin (11/22)

Outlook: IN Cal Poly’s looks to be a lock for a playoff berth. If they beat Wisconsin, CP could grab one of the top 4 seeds. We will assume that this will not happen and a date with either Weber State or Montana awaits.


11. Colgate (8-2, 4-0 Patriot)
The Games: Holy Cross (11/22)

Outlook: The showdown with Holy Cross will determine the outcome of the Patriot, win and you are in with the Autobid. Otherwise a loss will most likely keep them out of the playoffs, but still in the discussion for an At-Large.


12. McNeese State/Texas State
The Games: PICK ONE

Outlook: IN This is still a one team league at this point consider the winner in – today I will put my money on Texas State

13. Elon (8-3, 6-2 Southern)
The Games: at Liberty (11/22)

Outlook: Elon proved this weekend that they belong in the post season with a tremendous game at ASU. Now the Phoenix are in a must win situation! A win against the Flames on Saturday will clinch a post season slot. A loss and you are out. However a first round trip to JMU looks likely, ouch!

14. New Hampshire (8-2, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: at Maine (11/22)

Outlook: A huge victory this past weekend should put N. Hampshire in good shape. However a loss at Maine could derail their post season hopes. With others around the country there are only 4 for sure post season berths from the CAA – a 5th may not be likely.

15. Richmond (8-3, 8-1 CAA)
The Games: at W&M (11/22)

Outlook: An elimination game with the Tribe, the winner heads to the post season.


16. Tennessee Martin (8-3, 6-1 OVC)
The Games: EKU (11/22)

Outlook: A winner take all game in the OVC, if they can beat EKU, they grab the Autobid. A loss puts you out of the playoffs.


17. Holy Cross (7-3, 5-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Colgate (11/22)

Outlook: A huge victory this weekend, but Holy Cross cannot let up now. A victory over Colgate gives them the Autobid, a loss ends their season.

18. Maine (8-3, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: N. Hampshire (11/22)

Outlook: A huge victory this weekend. A win over NH would seal a playoff bid for the Bears, a loss leaves them looking to next year.

19. William & Mary (7-3, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: Richmond (11/22)

Outlook: A tough task remains for the Tribe, but simple math, win and you are in!

20. Eastern Kentucky (7-3, 6-1 OVC)
The Games: at Tenn-Martin (11/22)

Outlook: EKU is another one controlling its’ own destiny, a win over TM will clinch the OVC Autobid.

21. Liberty (9-2, 4-0 Big South)
The Games: Elon (11/22)

Outlook: Bottom-line, the flames must beat Elon to remain in the discussion, if they do they are likely to steal a bid.

22. Layfayette (7-3, 3-2 Patriot)
The Games: Lehigh (11/22)

Outlook: I still like the looks of this league and their potential of a possible second team in the field. Layfayette has a good schedule but they must win this weekend.

23. Bethune Cookman (8-2, 5-2 MEAC)
The Games: Florida A&M (11/22)

Outlook: Still with an outside chance – but must win their last game just to be talked about.

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Colgate, A10: JMU, Big Sky: Weber State, Southland: Texas State, Southern: ASU, Gateway: S. Illinois, MEAC: SCSt, OVC: Tenn Martin

At-large: Elon, Cal Poly, Wofford, , N. Iowa, N. Hamp, Montana, Richmond, and Villanova.

Seeds: Montana, JMU, Weber State, Appalachain State.

Last In: Richmond and Cal Poly
Last Out: Layfayette, and Liberty

Bracket I: Elon at No. 1 JMU; Colgate at Villanova;
Cal Poly at No. 4 Montana; N. Hampshire at N. Iowa

Bracket II: Richmond at No. 2 ASU; Wofford at SCSt ;
Texas State at No. 3 Weber State; Tenn-Martin at S. Illinois.

NOTES:
*Based on the money aspect I gave Montana the edge in grabbing the last remaining seed.
*Based on my projections, the best first round game, ASU/Richmond and Montana/Cal Poly.
*Best potential 2nd Round game, Villanova/JMU.
*Based on my projections, most likely upset – Richmond over ASU.
*NC game based on my projections, JMU vs. Wofford – JMU wins it all…

[appfan2008]

no love for uni and siu from the mvfc

[danefan]

Not that it will matter, because it won't exactly be a on the bubble, but I'd be willing to bet if it came down to it, Albany would be ahead of Bethune Cookman.

BC has no signature wins and a really bad loss to Del State.

Albany has an 8-3 record with a win over a CAA team and two closely played games at UNH and Umass. Their bad loss is to Delaware, which as much as some Del State fans would like to argue, is a much stronger team than Del State.

[19Duke97]

I like your analysis for the most part, but I have to disagree with putting an Elon team that has lost two of its last 3 games, and head to head at home against Richmond AHEAD of Richmond. That makes no sense to me... I think you have SC State a little high as well, I don;t see tham as the #7 team in the nation, but that is my opinion.

[Go Apps]

The list is not based on ranking the teams but the probability of making the playoff field. SCSt in is over both because they have qualified with an auto berth.

Elon stays ahead of Richmond because I believe the probability of Elon beating Liberty is stronger than assuming Richmond will beat Maine. Hence why Maine is further down the list as I give the edge to Richmond.

Again the rankings are based on who will make the field not positioning...

Hope this helps...

[19Duke97]

The list is not based on ranking the teams but the probability of making the playoff field. SCSt in is over both because they have qualified with an auto berth.

Elon stays ahead of Richmond because I believe the probability of Elon beating Liberty is stronger than assuming Richmond will beat Maine. Hence why Maine is further down the list as I give the edge to Richmond.

Again the rankings are based on who will make the field not positioning...

Hope this helps...

Ok gotcha.

[Eight Legger]

The list is not based on ranking the teams but the probability of making the playoff field. SCSt in is over both because they have qualified with an auto berth.

Elon stays ahead of Richmond because I believe the probability of Elon beating Liberty is stronger than assuming Richmond will beat Maine. Hence why Maine is further down the list as I give the edge to Richmond.

Again the rankings are based on who will make the field not positioning...

Hope this helps...

We already did beat Maine, 44-17. I assume you mean W&M.

A lot of people assume that Richmond is guaranteed to miss the field with a loss to W&M. I will just say that is not the case, but I don't expect that it will come to that, either.

[4th and What?]

The list is not based on ranking the teams but the probability of making the playoff field. SCSt in is over both because they have qualified with an auto berth.

Elon stays ahead of Richmond because I believe the probability of Elon beating Liberty is stronger than assuming Richmond will beat Maine. Hence why Maine is further down the list as I give the edge to Richmond.

Again the rankings are based on who will make the field not positioning...

Hope this helps...

You mean Richmond beating W&M? Or UNH beating Maine?

Looks good overall though, without arguing about specific outcomes to be on Saturday.

[OLDMAIN80]

Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:

6. Wofford (8-2, 6-1 Southern)
The Games: Furman (11/22)

Outlook: IN Wofford did what they needed to do the last two weeks – WIN. The Terriors have punched their ticket to the dance. A tough in state game with Furman remains and I think the outcome will affect Wofford’s chances of flying to their first round game.


Bracket I: Elon at No. 1 JMU; Colgate at Villanova;
Cal Poly at No. 4 Montana; N. Hampshire at N. Iowa

Bracket II: Richmond at No. 2 ASU; Wofford at SCSt ;
Texas State at No. 3 Weber State; Tenn-Martin at S. Illinois.

NOTES:
*Based on the money aspect I gave Montana the edge in grabbing the last remaining seed.
*Based on my projections, the best first round game, ASU/Richmond and Montana/Cal Poly.
*Best potential 2nd Round game, Villanova/JMU.
*Based on my projections, most likely upset – Richmond over ASU.
*NC game based on my projections, JMU vs. Wofford – JMU wins it all…

Good points, I think Wofford will host SCSU in the first round. Making it to the NC game would be outstanding and if we do we come away with the trophy.xthumbsupx

[4th and What?]

We already did beat Maine, 44-17. I assume you mean W&M.

A lot of people assume that Richmond is guaranteed to miss the field with a loss to W&M. I will just say that is not the case, but I don't expect that it will come to that, either.

I expect Richmond to win this weekend also. However that being said I also think they need to beat W&M to get an at-large. While they are perfectly capable of beating JMU or Villanova this year, they didn't. And Richmond would be hanging their hat on wins against 2 other bubble teams, Maine and Elon. Now if Richmond loses and Maine and Elon wins, that will just be screwy, but I still see Richmond getting left out in that scenario.

They could easily be the best team left out of the playoffs this year.

[smcwildcat]

14 UNH no wayy

[JayJ79]

9. Northern Iowa (9-2, 7-1 MVC)
The Games: at S. Utah (11/22)

Outlook: IN A 10-2 regular season record looks to be a lock with and a potential top 4 seed but a down year in the MVC could lead to no seed at all. Either way a win puts them in the top 4 discussion. With a win and S. Illinois loss, they capture the MVC Autobid.

Actually, UNI would get the autobid with an SIU loss, regardless of the outcome of the S. Utah game, since that is a non-conference game.

I don't see either SIU or UNI losing this weekend. but who knows...

[Go Apps]

yes W&M sorry

[Go Apps]

Again on the rankings NH is 14 based on their probability if they win they are in - still have an outside chance if they loose

[HPCAT]

Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:

In the Southland, Central Arkansas is in a transition year and not eligible therefore the second place team would get the Autobid.



It is not unlikely that the SLC will have a 3 way tie, with UCA, TXST, and MSU. so a second place team will not represent the SLC, but a co-champion.

[uni88]

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Colgate, A10: JMU, Big Sky: Weber State, Southland: Texas State, Southern: ASU, Gateway: S. Illinois, MEAC: SCSt, OVC: Tenn Martin

At-large: Elon, Cal Poly, Wofford, , N. Iowa, N. Hamp, Montana, Richmond, and Villanova.

Seeds: Montana, JMU, Weber State, Appalachain State.

Last In: Richmond and Cal Poly
Last Out: Layfayette, and Liberty

Bracket I: Elon at No. 1 JMU; Colgate at Villanova;
Cal Poly at No. 4 Montana; N. Hampshire at N. Iowa

Bracket II: Richmond at No. 2 ASU; Wofford at SCSt ;
Texas State at No. 3 Weber State; Tenn-Martin at S. Illinois.

NOTES:
*Based on the money aspect I gave Montana the edge in grabbing the last remaining seed.
*Based on my projections, the best first round game, ASU/Richmond and Montana/Cal Poly.
*Best potential 2nd Round game, Villanova/JMU.
*Based on my projections, most likely upset – Richmond over ASU.
*NC game based on my projections, JMU vs. Wofford – JMU wins it all…

Nice analysis. You did a really nice job of factoring travel considerations into likely matchups.

Some thoughts
- I'm not sure if $ will impact seeding. Montana will get a home game in the first round regardless.
- The committee might send Poly to Weber to avoid a regular season rematch.
- If it happens, this would be the 3rd time in 4 years that UNI & UNH have met in the playoffs.

[Grizzaholic]

Would hell freeze over if Weber St. and Montana both got seeds this year?
Would all of the Big Fluffy Sky talk cease?
Would anybody give any props to the Big Sky Conference?
Would a few NDSU fans jump off the local bridge if it happened?

[89Hen]

Would hell freeze over if Weber St. and Montana both got seeds this year?
Would all of the Big Fluffy Sky talk cease?
Would anybody give any props to the Big Sky Conference?
No, no and... no. :p

[Grizzaholic]

No, no and... no. :p

Good to know. Is there anything that the BSC can do to reverse any of the bad talk?

[89Hen]

Good to know. Is there anything that the BSC can do to reverse any of the bad talk?
Move east of the Mississippi? xeyebrowx xsmiley_wix :p

[Grizzaholic]

Move east of the Mississippi? xeyebrowx xsmiley_wix :p

I think I will stay here and deal with the bad talk. Thanks for the invite though.

[Houndawg]

Would hell freeze over if Weber St. and Montana both got seeds this year?
Would all of the Big Fluffy Sky talk cease?
Would anybody give any props to the Big Sky Conference?
Would a few NDSU fans jump off the local bridge if it happened?

I'm just not clear on why, if SIU wins this week, the MVC champ coming into the playoffs on a seven-game winning streak wouldn't deserve a seed. The MVC may be a little down this year but they aren't down below the BSC or the GWC.xpeacex

[Go Apps]

I'm just not clear on why, if SIU wins this week, the MVC champ coming into the playoffs on a seven-game winning streak wouldn't deserve a seed. The MVC may be a little down this year but they aren't down below the BSC or the GWC.xpeacex

Can't disagree and I believe that S. Illinois is in the discussion and has the upper hand over N. Iowa - but right now I think the committe goes for the $$ and that means Montana

[Khan4Cats]

Well, I'll throw my list out. I think the field is basically set unless there are some goofy happenings this week.

Auto-Bids (Secured):
James Madison
Appalachian State
Weber State
South Carolina State

Auto-Bids Claim with a win this week):
Eastern Kentucky or Tennessee-Martin
Colgate or Holy Cross
Texas State
Southern Illinois

At-Larges (Should be In):
Montana
Northern Iowa
Villanova
Cal-Poly

At-Larges (In with a win):
Elon
Wofford
Richmond or William & Mary
New Hampshire or Maine

I think the following teams could lose and open up possible at-large spots for others:
Southern Illinois-A loss would make them 8-3, with only 7 D-I wins. Still think they are okay as a second team from the MVFC.
Elon: 8-4 and no really good wins, might open a spot for a 5th CAA.
Wofford: 7-4, have the win over Elon, but UGLY losses to ASU (blow-out) and Western Carolina (WTF?)

Anyways, here is my bracket:

1 JMU vs Elon
Wofford vs SC State (not sure who would host)

4 Villanova vs Patriot Champ
Maine/UNH at UNI

2 ASU vs OVC Champ
SIU vs Richmond/W&M (not sure who would host)

3 Montana vs SLC Champ
Cal-Poly vs Weber State (not sure who would host)

The only bidder I am pretty confident on would be UNI over either of the CAA North schools. The others keep geography pretty close, even in round 2.

[putter]

Montana gets the #4 seed and for their effort they get the current #3 team in the country. xnonono2x Kinda like last year getting the SoCon champs.

[Mntneer]

Wofford: 7-4, have the win over Elon, but UGLY losses to ASU (blow-out) and Western Carolina (WTF?)


WTF indeed. Wofford didn't lose to Western, they won 42-14.

[slostang]

Montana gets the #4 seed and for their effort they get the current #3 team in the country. xnonono2x Kinda like last year getting the SoCon champs.

?????
SLC=South Land Conference which means Texas State or McNeese State, neither of which is the #3 team.

[Khan4Cats]

WTF indeed. Wofford didn't lose to Western, they won 42-14.

I must have written that down wrong. Okay, that changes things. Move Wofford into the At-Large (secured) category. Even more clarity in the play-off picture. Elon vs Liberty is the one hope most bubble teams are focusing on.

[BlueHen86]

Good analysis Go Apps.

[Khan4Cats]

?????
SLC=South Land Conference which means Texas State or McNeese State, neither of which is the #3 team.

Exactly. Don't see the commitee re-matching Montana/Cal-Poly in the 1st Round, which is why I see Montana as the seed (in addition to a better overall resume than Weber State) and Cal-Poly and Weber State matching up.

[tingly]

Northwestern State can grab the automatic berth from Texas/McNeese, but they need all 4 conference games to go their way, pretty unlikely.

[appstate1998]

win or lose no way Wofford doesn't get in. They have one FCS loss and thats to App State and they played FBS SC close. Beat Furman should secure them a home game.

Even though it was a very very bad loss...if they win out you can't argue with them getting a seed when their only FCS loss would be to the 3 time defending champs

On a side note...I have Furman beating Wofford xrulesx

[slostang]

Well, I'll throw my list out. I think the field is basically set unless there are some goofy happenings this week.

Auto-Bids (Secured):
James Madison
Appalachian State
Weber State
South Carolina State

Auto-Bids Claim with a win this week):
Eastern Kentucky or Tennessee-Martin
Colgate or Holy Cross
Texas State
Southern Illinois

At-Larges (Should be In):
Montana
Northern Iowa
Villanova
Cal-Poly

At-Larges (In with a win):
Elon
Wofford
Richmond or William & Mary
New Hampshire or Maine

I think the following teams could lose and open up possible at-large spots for others:
Southern Illinois-A loss would make them 8-3, with only 7 D-I wins. Still think they are okay as a second team from the MVFC.
Elon: 8-4 and no really good wins, might open a spot for a 5th CAA.
Wofford: 7-4, have the win over Elon, but UGLY losses to ASU (blow-out) and Western Carolina (WTF?)

Anyways, here is my bracket:

1 JMU vs Elon
Wofford vs SC State (not sure who would host)

4 Villanova vs Patriot Champ
Maine/UNH at UNI

2 ASU vs OVC Champ
SIU vs Richmond/W&M (not sure who would host)

3 Montana vs SLC Champ
Cal-Poly vs Weber State (not sure who would host)

The only bidder I am pretty confident on would be UNI over either of the CAA North schools. The others keep geography pretty close, even in round 2.

If you are right and it comes to a bid between Cal Poly and Weber State, I would think Cal Poly would host over Weber State. Cal Poly averaged 10,016 per home game vs Weber State that averaged 6,524 per home game.

[tingly]

If money is an overriding concern, they might send both Poly and Weber east to larger stadiums, or send Poly to Montana and Weber east. The one time Poly made the playoffs, they had a Montana rematch. That's assuming Weber isn't seeded.

[Go Apps]

Well, I'll throw my list out. I think the field is basically set unless there are some goofy happenings this week.

Auto-Bids (Secured):
James Madison
Appalachian State
Weber State
South Carolina State

Auto-Bids Claim with a win this week):
Eastern Kentucky or Tennessee-Martin
Colgate or Holy Cross
Texas State
Southern Illinois

At-Larges (Should be In):
Montana
Northern Iowa
Villanova
Cal-Poly

At-Larges (In with a win):
Elon
Wofford
Richmond or William & Mary
New Hampshire or Maine

I think the following teams could lose and open up possible at-large spots for others:
Southern Illinois-A loss would make them 8-3, with only 7 D-I wins. Still think they are okay as a second team from the MVFC.
Elon: 8-4 and no really good wins, might open a spot for a 5th CAA.
Wofford: 7-4, have the win over Elon, but UGLY losses to ASU (blow-out) and Western Carolina (WTF?)

Anyways, here is my bracket:

1 JMU vs Elon
Wofford vs SC State (not sure who would host)

4 Villanova vs Patriot Champ
Maine/UNH at UNI

2 ASU vs OVC Champ
SIU vs Richmond/W&M (not sure who would host)

3 Montana vs SLC Champ
Cal-Poly vs Weber State (not sure who would host)

The only bidder I am pretty confident on would be UNI over either of the CAA North schools. The others keep geography pretty close, even in round 2.

Just a note that Wofford only has two losses and did not loose to WCU - they lost to ASU and Scuth Carolina - they are already in

[appstate1998]

I would also say that I would send every single CAA team that has at least 7 Division 1 wins to the playoffs over Liberty. The top 7 in the CAA all have played at least 1 FBS opponent and dealt with their brutal conference schedule.

But you never know Liberty's big wins over Glenville State and North Greenville could catapult them and get the committee to overlook losses to Presbyterian and Lafayette

[R3TRO]

I would also say that I would send every single CAA team that has at least 7 Division 1 wins to the playoffs over Liberty. The top 7 in the CAA all have played at least 1 FBS opponent and dealt with their brutal conference schedule.

But you never know Liberty's big wins over Glenville State and North Greenville could catapult them and get the committee to overlook losses to Presbyterian and Lafayette

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

My kind of humor. xthumbsupx

[Go Apps]

I would also say that I would send every single CAA team that has at least 7 Division 1 wins to the playoffs over Liberty. The top 7 in the CAA all have played at least 1 FBS opponent and dealt with their brutal conference schedule.

But you never know Liberty's big wins over Glenville State and North Greenville could catapult them and get the committee to overlook losses to Presbyterian and Lafayette

You never know if they can beat Elon

[Go Apps]

lots to look forward to!

[th0m]

I would also say that I would send every single CAA team that has at least 7 Division 1 wins to the playoffs over Liberty. The top 7 in the CAA all have played at least 1 FBS opponent and dealt with their brutal conference schedule.

But you never know Liberty's big wins over Glenville State and North Greenville could catapult them and get the committee to overlook losses to Presbyterian and Lafayette

xoutofrepx

I think though, that the game this weekend with Elon will put an end to the doubting. If they beat Elon, then perhaps they are good enough, or at least will have a quality win. If they don't, it won't be an issue. Of course this will not erase their losses vs. Presbyterian and Lafayette.

In general, not only referring to Liberty, but to the entire field of 16, I think it has to be taken into account that the teams that make it are not all going to be able to win it all. This sounds harsh, and goes against the "any given saturday" mentality, but it is just the truth. This does not mean that an amount of the 16 teams in aren't worthy, because we will not know who the best team is until December, but for example, it doesn't mean that we should put in the entire CAA just because they played a brutal schedule.

[ToTheLeft]

So, Liberty gets no props for sweeping a conference ranked a mere 1.6 GPI points behind the Patriot, who people have been saying could/should get a second team in as well as the champion, not to mention being rated higher than the OVC, MEAC, and SWAC?

People act like the Big South is the PFL or NEC and that we don't play anyone, so therefore we don't deserve to go. Then how did the GPI manage to rank us that high in the conference rankings? And we beat all the teams, shutting out two of them.

We have an auto-bid conference that just isn't auto-bid yet because of the 2 year waiting period. And Liberty swept it in dominant fashion. I am thinking that this is going to weigh on the committee's minds, and that they won't just take a look at LU's resume, see a loss to Presby, and throw it away to try and find Bethune-Cookman's resume.

[BearGibson]

If ASU is defeated, I hope JMU plays 'Nova or Richmond again, those both would be games that I would love to see. I wouldn't bet on JMU in either game.

Payback's a bitch...

[mcveyrl]

If ASU is defeated, I hope JMU plays 'Nova or Richmond again, those both would be games that I would love to see. I wouldn't bet on JMU in either game.

Payback's a bitch...

I would most definitely be concerned with any rematch we have in the playoffs.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Normally I agree, but this year JMU had close wins that were in miraculous conditions. This means that this team is NOT overconfident, which is usually the difference in game #2. So I would bet on JMU in many of the rematches, particularly vs. Villanova. JMU had it's worst defensive day of the year that game, although JMU did not allow a play for more than 15 yards that game. Still, our freshman LBs were getting torched. Adjustments have been made since and there is the possibility of Sr.-LB DJ Brandon to play in the playoffs.

I think JMU is just as hungry for a return to Chattanooga as anyone. xnodx

[nutterlyattled]

i would like to see a unh, uni rematch.
that is, if unh wins this time....

[Eight Legger]

So, Liberty gets no props for sweeping a conference ranked a mere 1.6 GPI points behind the Patriot, who people have been saying could/should get a second team in as well as the champion, not to mention being rated higher than the OVC, MEAC, and SWAC?

People act like the Big South is the PFL or NEC and that we don't play anyone, so therefore we don't deserve to go. Then how did the GPI manage to rank us that high in the conference rankings? And we beat all the teams, shutting out two of them.

We have an auto-bid conference that just isn't auto-bid yet because of the 2 year waiting period. And Liberty swept it in dominant fashion. I am thinking that this is going to weigh on the committee's minds, and that they won't just take a look at LU's resume, see a loss to Presby, and throw it away to try and find Bethune-Cookman's resume.

No offense, but some people think Richmond deserves to be left at home with four losses -- two to top-10 teams and one that would be to a top-15 team, in addition to an FBS school -- even though we are clearly a top-10 team and have been one all season. You lost to one mediocre team and one bad team.
I feel bad that you can't participate in the playoffs, but you had no margin for error, and you erred twice. That's just the way it is.

[th0m]

So, Liberty gets no props for sweeping a conference ranked a mere 1.6 GPI points behind the Patriot, who people have been saying could/should get a second team in as well as the champion, not to mention being rated higher than the OVC, MEAC, and SWAC?

People act like the Big South is the PFL or NEC and that we don't play anyone, so therefore we don't deserve to go. Then how did the GPI manage to rank us that high in the conference rankings? And we beat all the teams, shutting out two of them.

We have an auto-bid conference that just isn't auto-bid yet because of the 2 year waiting period. And Liberty swept it in dominant fashion. I am thinking that this is going to weigh on the committee's minds, and that they won't just take a look at LU's resume, see a loss to Presby, and throw it away to try and find Bethune-Cookman's resume.

Take care of Elon first. Until you do, you have no resume worth speaking of. Your conference may be rated better than the OVC and MEAC, but you have no quality wins and two bad losses. A loss to Lafayette (from the conference ranked only ranked 1.6 GPI points ahead) wouldn't have been a bad loss per se, but losing by 14 does make it look bad. Not only that, but you have two DII wins, currently just putting you on the 7 DI minimum.

[ToTheLeft]

Oh, I know we have no argument to get in with a loss to Elon. I fully understand that. I am just saying that it's sad that, if there wasn't a 2 year waiting period for conference to get an AQ, we would be a lock right now and the Elon game would be meaningless. We should get props for running the table in an almost decent conference, GPI wise. But we don't, because all the teams just don't make anyone say "Wow, good win." Not saying we had any good wins, but they weren't bad wins, either.

Taking care of Elon is going to be a chore, tho. Will be a pretty exciting game.

Oh, and Go Oranje. :)

[TCisMYhero]

This all looks good, but I would give Dayton the number 1 or 2 seed. We don't need another "paper champ" like NDSU last year. Crybabiesxlolx

[Houndawg]

So, Liberty gets no props for sweeping a conference ranked a mere 1.6 GPI points behind the Patriot, who people have been saying could/should get a second team in as well as the champion, not to mention being rated higher than the OVC, MEAC, and SWAC?

People act like the Big South is the PFL or NEC and that we don't play anyone, so therefore we don't deserve to go. Then how did the GPI manage to rank us that high in the conference rankings? And we beat all the teams, shutting out two of them.

We have an auto-bid conference that just isn't auto-bid yet because of the 2 year waiting period. And Liberty swept it in dominant fashion. I am thinking that this is going to weigh on the committee's minds, and that they won't just take a look at LU's resume, see a loss to Presby, and throw it away to try and find Bethune-Cookman's resume.

xnonox No they haven't.

[ToTheLeft]

Umm, actually yes, they have. People have been saying they Laffy should get considered for a bid, using their win over LU as part of the reasoning.

[WrenFGun]

LaFayette's win over Liberty, if anything, just knocks Liberty further down the totem pole. I have to imagine the committee would take a sniff at Colgate if Holy Cross knocks them off, but I doubt it.

The interesting scenario that presents itself is the following: UNH, Richmond and Wofford win, advancing into the field. Colgate and Liberty win, knocking Holy Cross and Elon out of the running. Then you're really looking at the following options: Maine at 8-4, NDSU at 7-4 (if they beat SDSU), Elon at 7-4, William & Mary at 7-4 (with 2 straight losses), and then Liberty and LaFayette. Liberty seems to shine through in that instance, though if UNH were to fall to Maine, or Richmond to W&M, then either of those teams would get in ahead of them.

[WrenFGun]

You could probably throw Montana State and JSU in that mix, too. An Elon loss with UNH and Richmond wins makes spot #16 seem VERY interesting, to me.

[ToTheLeft]

Yeah, we're pretty much set on what needs to happen to give us the best chance of getting in. I have CBS sending me text messages of who wins the UNH, Wofford, and Richmond games.

[WrenFGun]

I still have a hard time imagining that team with two losses to teams that won't be in the playoffs this season will make the playoffs, but I suppose stranger things have happened.

[ToTheLeft]

I still have a hard time imagining that team with two losses to teams that won't be in the playoffs this season will make the playoffs, but I suppose stranger things have happened.

I guess part of it will be... there comes a time when you have to win the games you play. Sure we have 2 lame losses, but we only lost 2 so far, not 3 or 4 or 5.

Not that I think this is a strong argument. I just think it affects people who make these decisions.

[WrenFGun]

Did anyone listen to the SME Broadcasting show?

They suggest that a 9-2 UNH or a 9-3 UMaine would be behind an 8-3 Elon, an 8-4 Richmond and potentially a 7-4 William and Mary. There's just no respect for the CAA North, apparently. Speaking of which, there is no way UNH is behind an 8-4 Richmond. Richmond would have losses to Villanova and William and Mary (the same two losses UNH would have) in addition to losses to JMU and Virginia. Richmond would have the win over Elon, but UNH has the win over Army. It just sounded absurd and I got really angry. The people calling Richmond a lock over a 9-2 UNH seem crazy, though I could see it over a 9-3 UMaine, since they beat Maine. Really, Richmond should be a lock because they should be in over an 8-3 Elon.

[rcny46]

Did anyone listen to the SME Broadcasting show?

They suggest that a 9-2 UNH or a 9-3 UMaine would be behind an 8-3 Elon, an 8-4 Richmond and potentially a 7-4 William and Mary. There's just no respect for the CAA North, apparently. Speaking of which, there is no way UNH is behind an 8-4 Richmond. Richmond would have losses to Villanova and William and Mary (the same two losses UNH would have) in addition to losses to JMU and Virginia. Richmond would have the win over Elon, but UNH has the win over Army. It just sounded absurd and I got really angry. The people calling Richmond a lock over a 9-2 UNH seem crazy, though I could see it over a 9-3 UMaine, since they beat Maine. Really, Richmond should be a lock because they should be in over an 8-3 Elon.


It is absurd.UR would not be a lock over a 9-2 UNH.I don't even think they'd be a lock over a 9-3 Maine with 7 straight wins.

[WrenFGun]

They concluded with a slight mention that the winner of the Maine/UNH game might warrant inclusion over an Elon team, even at 8-3. No kidding. There's some real hate on the CAA North, particularly when you consider this might be the most balanced UNH team since the team that lost to UNI as the #1 seed.

[phoenixphanatic21]

Yeah, we're pretty much set on what needs to happen to give us the best chance of getting in. I have CBS sending me text messages of who wins the UNH, Wofford, and Richmond games.

Let me know who wins those. Or at least the UNH game.

[ToTheLeft]

Not sure how I would let you know, I don't think you're gonna want to be near me on gameday, especially if Elon is winning. Haha.

[Eight Legger]

I really believe there's about an 80% chance UR is in no matter what happens Saturday. The other 20% accounts for a W&M blowout and/or a bunch of other strange results in other games. UR will still be a top-10 team in the computer/power rankings even with a loss and will have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

That said, I don't think UNH or Maine are competing with us fo a spot...you guys are competing more with W&M, Elon and the others.

[rcny46]

The problem is,unless Elon loses (I think that would be one of the biggest upsets of the season),I just don't see how the CAA gets more than four spots.It's simply a question of available positions.

[Yosef@therock]

Which playoff will be shown on ESPNU? Why is there only 1 playoff game on TV?

[rcny46]

They concluded with a slight mention that the winner of the Maine/UNH game might warrant inclusion over an Elon team, even at 8-3. No kidding. There's some real hate on the CAA North, particularly when you consider this might be the most balanced UNH team since the team that lost to UNI as the #1 seed.


Ridiculous.I'm not a know it all by any stretch,but the committee just wouldn't make a move like that IMHO.Anyway,this should all work out because I believe UR and Elon will win and the potential problem will be avoided.I hope.

[Go Apps]

STill think Richmond needs to win this weekend

[WrenFGun]

Jim Dowd, editor of the CAA Today, actually seems to like UNH's chances with a loss slightly more than a 4-loss Richmond, though he knows that the 4th loss to an FBS team doesn't mean much.

I personally feel that Richmond should be in, because in the very worst case scenario for them (UNH, W&M and Elon win) they should still be in over Elon.

[mcveyrl]

Jim Dowd, editor of the CAA Today, actually seems to like UNH's chances with a loss slightly more than a 4-loss Richmond, though he knows that the 4th loss to an FBS team doesn't mean much.

I personally feel that Richmond should be in, because in the very worst case scenario for them (UNH, W&M and Elon win) they should still be in over Elon.

He probably just downgraded UNH's chances...his name is Bruce. :D