Playoffs start next week

[Duke Dawg]

I see 11 teams that are in:

JMU
app State
Montana
Weber
Cal Poly
Villanova
No Iowa
So Illinois
Southland champ
SC state
Wofford

And there are 5 huge games next week, many of which the winner is in and the loser out:

1) Colgate-Holy Cross - Patriot league championship game. Play in game
2) UT Martin-E kentucky: OVC championship game. Play in game
3) Richmond-W Mary: loser has 4 losses and out. Winner in. Play in game
4) UNH-Maine: winner is a lock, UNH with a chance if they lose. Maine out if they lose.
5) Elon-Liberty: Elon in if they win, out if they lose. Liberty out if they lose.


The winners of the first four of those games will take spots 12-15...

the last spot will be determined by the last two games on the list.

If Elon wins, they are in and UNH takes the last spot even if they lose.

If Maine and Liberty both win, then it gets dicey. Maine would be #14 and Elon is likely out with 4 losses...but who do you take between UNH and Liberty for the last spot? I would think UNH but that would be 5 from the CAA for 2 straight years and I can see the committee taking Liberty instead (despite what is really an 8-2 record).

I don't see any other teams out there that could get in the mix (maybe Jax State) unless they surprise and take a 4 loss team.

[T-Dogg]

Most of this seems reasonable, BUT......Where is Wofford?

[Duke Dawg]

oops...sorry, they are in of course.....should have said there are 11 locks.

[Reign of Terrier]

If Elon gets in Wofford gets in, we beat them and are higher in conference, simple as that.

[Duke Dawg]

so really the winners of the first 4 games on that list will take spots 12-15, and the last 2 games will determine who is the last team.

If Elon and UNH win, it's easy...done deal.

If Elon and Maine win, going to be tough to chose between Elon and UNH, but I think they'd take Elon.

If Liberty wins, then it would get interesting. Does Liberty get it? or would they take a 4 loss team?

[appstate1998]

Villanova should be counting their lucky stars after escaping the upset today. Their finale with Delaware would have been a play in game if not.

[Tod]

What if MSU beats UM next week? MSU would have a record of 8-4, 7 D-I wins, will have won five straight, and will have just knocked off a top 5, current #3 in the GPI Griz team.

BTW, before todays game, MSU was #20 in the GPI.

It's a long shot, but possible.

[Reign of Terrier]

so really the winners of the first 4 games on that list will take spots 12-15, and the last 2 games will determine who is the last team.

If Elon and UNH win, it's easy...done deal.

If Elon and Maine win, going to be tough to chose between Elon and UNH, but I think they'd take Elon.

If Liberty wins, then it would get interesting. Does Liberty get it? or would they take a 4 loss team?

I don't think either team would get in

[Duke Dawg]

well, I think the only way a 4 loss team gets into the mix is if Liberty and UNH win. (If liberty and Maine win, I think Maine and UNH get the last 2 spots)

that would open up that last spot between 8-2 Liberty and a whole slew of 4 loss teams....hard to say which they would take.

[Duke Dawg]

I don't think either team would get in


if not Liberty, it would have to be a 4 loss team, especially if UNH wins.

JMU
App State
Wofford
Nova
Poly
Montana
Weber
No Iowa
So Illinois
SC State
Southland
Patriot
OVC
UR-WM winner
UNH-Maine winner
?????

Elon, Liberty, UNH or another 4 loss team.

[FargoBison]

What if MSU beats UM next week? MSU would have a record of 8-4, 7 D-I wins, will have won five straight, and will have just knocked off a top 5, current #3 in the GPI Griz team.

BTW, before todays game, MSU was #20 in the GPI.

It's a long shot, but possible.

MSU can only get to 6 DI wins, South Dakota is a non-counter this year.

[appstate1998]

if it comes down to Elon or UNH it's gonna be extremely hard to pick. If UNH had played Richmond this year it would have been a lot easier.

Liberty is just like Dayton in my opinion except they are playing Elon. Even if they beat Elon they don't deserve a spot IMO. They played 2 division 2 schools, and some of their wins are pathetic...beating a 3-8 WCU by 3, a 3-8 Youngstown State by 3, and an unimpressive win against 3-7 VMI plus losing to Independent Presbyterian.

You can't just look at records...gotta look at who they play.

[Duke Dawg]

I agree...I don't know how you chose between Elon and UNH...but the only way it comes down to that is if Maine beats UNH...in which case UNH moves to #5 in the CAA pecking order....because of that, I think they'd choose Elon. They won't want to give the CAA 5 bids, two years in a row. That would be a political issue with the rest of IAA.

[appstate1998]

I agree...I don't know how you chose between Elon and UNH...but the only way it comes down to that is if Maine beats UNH...in which case UNH moves to #5 in the CAA pecking order....because of that, I think they'd choose Elon. They won't want to give the CAA 5 bids, two years in a row. That would be a political issue with the rest of IAA.

I think a lot of it will come down to how impressive the wins are next week.

[danefan]

I can tell you how they will choose between Elon and UNH - UNH has an FBS win. That will push them forward. That's what helped last year.

[TheBisonator]

NDSU would become playoff-qualifying (7 DI wins) if they win next week over SDSU. Would any of you have us in your playoff discussion if the Bison get a big win next week??

[IaaScribe]

NDSU would have a tough time getting in over Liberty considering they played a common opponent on a common field (YSU) and Liberty won and NDSU lost.

[TheBisonator]

NDSU would have a tough time getting in over Liberty considering they played a common opponent on a common field (YSU) and Liberty won and NDSU lost.

That is true.

At least we can get a big win, finish in the top-20 and have momentum for next year.

[RabidRabbit]

That is true.

At least we can get a big win, finish in the top-20 and have momentum for next year.

Need to get by Jacks next week first! xbangx xbangx

[TheBisonator]

Need to get by Jacks next week first! xbangx xbangx

You haven't won in Fargo since the advent of birth control. We're pretty confident we can beat you next week.

[mvemjsunpx]

If Maine and Liberty both win, then it gets dicey. Maine would be #14 and Elon is likely out with 4 losses...but who do you take between UNH and Liberty for the last spot? I would think UNH but that would be 5 from the CAA for 2 straight years and I can see the committee taking Liberty instead (despite what is really an 8-2 record).


I don't see Liberty making it under any realistic circumstances. My guess is the committee would end up choosing the EKU/UTM loser as the final team (assuming no blowout); Jacksonville State isn't likely to get it since they lost to both EKU & UTM. I don't know if that's the right choice necessarily, but probably the one that will be made.

You might see the Richmond/W&M loser get the last spot (I think an 8-4 Richmond would be pretty deserving). The winner of the FAMU/Bethune-Cookman game could be a dark horse choice, as well.

If it was up to me, I'd probably give the final spot to Richmond if they lose to W&M (in for sure if they win, of course) or to the UTM/EKU loser if the Spiders beat William & Mary. I'd probably give it to William & Mary if they lose to Richmond and the OVC title game is a blowout.

[EKUSteve]

It will be interesting to see what happens. Normally, an 8 win OVC team gets in as an at large. The OVC could potentially have a 9 win team not get in.

[Saint3333]

I can tell you how they will choose between Elon and UNH - UNH has an FBS win. That will push them forward. That's what helped last year.

IMO if Elon wins they are in. UNH needs to win next week to make the playoffs, 2 losses in the last 3 games would be taken into account.

[appstate1998]

I really don't get it...why are people even considering Liberty. They have 2 Division 2 wins and most their D-1 wins are against bottom feeders. There losses are to Lafayette and Presbyterian. Presbyterian is 4-7. All of their Division 1 wins are against teams with losing records or close to it. Coastal and CoC are both 6-5. They have played crappy teams and barely beat them and lost to a really bad Presbyterian team.

Like I said earlier they should not even be talked about.

If Furman could somehow beat Wofford next week...I would put them in over Liberty in a heart beat

[IaaScribe]

Like it or not, Liberty is in the conversation, and that's not just me spouting off. I'm hearing it from several sources close to the committee. Would beating Elon be enough? I don't know. But Liberty is on the board.

[appstate1998]

Like it or not, Liberty is in the conversation, and that's not just me spouting off. I'm hearing it from several sources close to the committee. Would beating Elon be enough? I don't know. But Liberty is on the board.


The committee has made some mistakes before...but even putting Liberty on the "board" seems a little far fetched for even them. What "quality" win do that have. I'm looking for just ONE quality win. Where is it? Please tell mexsmhx

[santosballnewhampshire]

The committee has made some mistakes before...but even putting Liberty on the "board" seems a little far fetched for even them. What "quality" win do that have. I'm looking for just ONE quality win. Where is it? Please tell mexsmhx

Agreed, no disrespect towards Liberty, but I just don't feel they are a playoff caliber team this year.

[ericsaid]

Somethings telling me Elon won't get in and it will only be ASU and Wofford from the SoCon.

[mvemjsunpx]

The committee has made some mistakes before...but even putting Liberty on the "board" seems a little far fetched for even them. What "quality" win do that have. I'm looking for just ONE quality win. Where is it? Please tell mexsmhx

Well, if they beat Elon, that would be a quality win. I don't think even that should be enough, though, given the loss to Presbyterian & 2 non-DI wins.

[phoenixphanatic21]

Somethings telling me Elon won't get in and it will only be ASU and Wofford from the SoCon.

xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx

No offense, but I hope you are wrong.

[rcny46]

I know all this is speculation,but I don't see how an 8-3 UNH as the fifth representative from the CAA would get in over an 9-3 Elon.I think an Elon win next week guarantees 3 teams from the SoCon.Wofford should be a pick regardless of how the Furman game turns out.I agree with Saint3333 that UNH must win at Maine.

[Eight Legger]

I don't see Liberty making it under any realistic circumstances. My guess is the committee would end up choosing the EKU/UTM loser as the final team (assuming no blowout); Jacksonville State isn't likely to get it since they lost to both EKU & UTM. I don't know if that's the right choice necessarily, but probably the one that will be made.

You might see the Richmond/W&M loser get the last spot (I think an 8-4 Richmond would be pretty deserving). The winner of the FAMU/Bethune-Cookman game could be a dark horse choice, as well.

If it was up to me, I'd probably give the final spot to Richmond if they lose to W&M (in for sure if they win, of course) or to the UTM/EKU loser if the Spiders beat William & Mary. I'd probably give it to William & Mary if they lose to Richmond and the OVC title game is a blowout.


I agree with you 100% and not just because I am a UR fan. The loser of this game is going to be a top-10 team in the power rankings and arguably a better team than the UNH-Maine winner. UR destroyed Maine and W&M beat UNH at UNH. Case closed there.

[joecooll6]

You think we are a lock? What if we lose next week, that makes us 9-3.

[CJHawkeyes]

FWIW, here is what the playoff field would look like according to my point system if current highest ranked teams win out next week:

1-James Madison (A) 64
2-Appalachian State (A) 57
3-South Carolina State (A) 48
4-Montana (W) 47
5-Villanova (W) 46
6-Wofford (W) 46
7-Weber State (A) 45
8-Richmond (W) 44
9-Cal Poly (W) 44
10-Northern Iowa (W) 41
11-New Hampshire (W) 41
12-Southern Illinois (A) 40
13-Elon 39 (W)
14-Tennessee-Martin (A) 34
15-Colgate (A) 32
16-Texas State (A) 16


Based on my point system, Richmond-William & Mary and New Hampshire-Maine are defacto playoff games next week. Elon-Liberty is a potential third such game but Liberty would need a win plus a Dayton loss. Of course, I realize Dayton being in the conversation is politically incorrect, but I like that fact that objective rules ignore political correctness.

[gabe01]

NDSU fan here.

We don't control our own playoff destiny but if we can beat SDSU next week and some luck, we could sneak in and grab the #16 spot.

Quietly, NDSU has snuck back into the top 25 and could take 3rd place in the MVC. When it's all said an done, we hope they recognize the Missouri Valley Conference, with the addition of NDSU and SDSU, ranks right up there with the CAA and Southern and deserves 3 teams.

Yeah, it's a long shot but still possible but today was encouraging. A lot of teams we needed to lose, lost today such as Mass, William & Mary, Furman, and Tennesee State.

Here's what has to happen for NDSU to get in.

NDSU must beat SDSU
Maine has to lose to #13 New Hamp (in Maine)
#7 Richmond has to beat WIlliam & Mary (at W&M)
#22 Liberty has to beat to #11 Elon
Tennesee Martin must beat Eastern Kentucky for auto bid.

IF THAT HAPPENS, YOUR PLAYOFF TEAMS ARE...

AUTO BIDS: Weber State, James Madison, Northern Iowa, South Carolina State, Tennessee Martin, Colgate, McNeese State, and Appalachian State.

AT LARGE BIDS
MONTANA- RICHMOND- VILLANOVA- CAL POLY- NEW HAMPSHIRE-SOUTHERN ILLINOIS -WOFFORD -NDSU

LEFT OUT
Elon (8-4), FURMAN (7-5), MAINE (7-4), Tennessee State (9-3), William & Mary (7-4), Liberty (10-2) Mass(7-5)

I think NDSU would represent well in the playoffs. We have a win over top 10 Southern Illinois and we will be 6-3 in tough conference play. Of the other teams that miss, none of them have wins over highly ranked teams. (William & Mary is the closest with a 4 point win over #13 New Hampshire)

NDSU's 4 losses are respectable. We lost on a last second field goal to D1-A Wyoming (who hasn't lost to an FCS team since 1976)

We lost 2 close conference games to ranked teams by 1 score or less... and our worst defeat was to #3 Northern Iowa. UNI is so good at home that a 10 point loss was the most competitive home game of the year. Basically we in every game.

I can't say the same for the teams I have behind NDSU:

Elon (got blown out twice & lost by 55 points!)
Furman (got blown out by Elon)
Maine (got blown out by JMA/Richmond by combined 47 points!)
William & Mary (got blown out today by JM)
Mass - (got blown out 3 times)
Tennessee State (haven't played anyone good, ohio valley weak schedule, barely beat Austin Peay)

Liberty - They beat a few D2 teams and their biggest win of the year was a 3 point squeaker over Youngstown State, the most schizophrenic team in the FCS. (they had their QB quit after the 2nd game) They got blown out by an awful Presbyterian team! Otherwise they haven't played anyone.

And finally, I hope they don't give the Ohio Valley another at large spot because they are not deserving, in my opinion. What's the last time an OVC team beat a Gateway team in the playoffs? Does the FCS want another year of blowouts?

[Libertine]

Liberty - Their biggest win of the year was a 3 point squeaker over Youngstown State, the most schizophrenic team in the FCS. (they had their QB quit after the 2nd game) They got blown out by an awful Presbyterian team! Otherwise they haven't played anyone.


In the interest of clarity, how is a 3-point win a squeaker and a 3-point loss getting blown out?

[gabe01]

In the interest of clarity, how is a 3-point win a squeaker and a 3-point loss getting blown out?

Never mind whoops. Edit. They lost to a really bad Presbyterian team. Didn't get blown out. The Presbyterian team got blown out 4 times to ranked teams.

Liberty didn't get blown out by anyone like the rest of the teams but the competition wasn't as good on a week to week basis.

[IaaScribe]

Doesn't matter, gabe. If it comes down to a Liberty-NDSU discussion, Liberty is going to win that one.

[uofmman1122]

Doesn't matter, gabe. If it comes down to a Liberty-NDSU discussion, Liberty is going to win that one.It could even come down to NDSU vs. Maine or W&M, and both CAA teams have a better resume than NDSU, even if they both lose next week, and NDSU wins.

[Thundering_Herd]

Two questions:

1. Who would the 16th seed play?
-would who you pick as 16th seed make it a game? NDSU wouldn't disappoint in playoffs IMO.

2. Money talks and NDSU's fans travel well. How much would that come into play?

Good luck to all teams that make the playoffs,... yes even you Montana. I want to see a MVFC national champ first, Cal Poly to win it all second, and MT or Weber St third. The title's coming from west of the Mississippi this year! xsmiley_wix

[uofmman1122]

Two questions:

1. Who would the 16th seed play?
-would who you pick as 16th seed make it a game? NDSU wouldn't disappoint in playoffs IMO.

2. Money talks and NDSU's fans travel well. How much would that come into play?

Good luck to all teams that make the playoffs,... yes even you Montana. I want to see a MVFC national champ first, Cal Poly to win it all second, and MT or Weber St third. The title's coming from west of the Mississippi this year! xsmiley_wixAnother question:

Is NDSU better than W&M, Richmond, Maine, Elon or UNH? They would have to have three of those teams snubbed if NDSU were to get in.

I think all of the teams are good, but NDSU doesn't have the resume that the CAA and SoCon bubble teams have. It's the same with the people saying Montana State has a chance. There would need to be some serious snubbing for that to happen.

[Cocky]

I don't see Liberty making it under any realistic circumstances. My guess is the committee would end up choosing the EKU/UTM loser as the final team (assuming no blowout); Jacksonville State isn't likely to get it since they lost to both EKU & UTM. I don't know if that's the right choice necessarily, but probably the one that will be made.

You might see the Richmond/W&M loser get the last spot (I think an 8-4 Richmond would be pretty deserving). The winner of the FAMU/Bethune-Cookman game could be a dark horse choice, as well.

If it was up to me, I'd probably give the final spot to Richmond if they lose to W&M (in for sure if they win, of course) or to the UTM/EKU loser if the Spiders beat William & Mary. I'd probably give it to William & Mary if they lose to Richmond and the OVC title game is a blowout.

If UTM loses they will not have enough DI wins to qualify.

[JaxSinfonian]

My guess is the committee would end up choosing the EKU/UTM loser as the final team (assuming no blowout); Jacksonville State isn't likely to get it since they lost to both EKU & UTM. I don't know if that's the right choice necessarily, but probably the one that will be made.

Only EKU could get an at-large with a loss in next week's game. If UT-Martin loses, they finish with 6 DI wins, and aren't playoff eligible. Naturally, that's the outcome I'm hoping for.

In that event, you'd have Tennessee State at either 8-4 or 9-3 depending on whether they take care of business at Murray. Then Jacksonville State at 8-3 (we're done for the season). If TSU wins, both teams can make a decent case for the playoffs. JSU would need to slip into the polls at 24 or 25 tomorrow, then hang on through an idle final weekend, I think (it would just seem weird to hand an at-large bid to an unranked team). For Jax State, the best outcome next week is an EKU win and a TSU loss.

I'm not saying a second OVC bid is likely or even the best possible choice facing the committee, but there are justifiable cases to be made for a few of our teams.


And finally, I hope they don't give the Ohio Valley another at large spot because they are not deserving, in my opinion. What's the last time an OVC team beat a Gateway team in the playoffs? Does the FCS want another year of blowouts?

Teams get into the playoffs based on this year's record, not on their conference's playoff history. Keep giving the OVC chances, and they'll get a win eventually. And it's not been the OVC teams responsible for any blowouts lately, at least since the last time my team made the field.

[Thundering_Herd]

Another question:

Is NDSU better than W&M, Richmond, Maine, Elon or UNH? They would have to have three of those teams snubbed if NDSU were to get in.

I think all of the teams are good, but NDSU doesn't have the resume that the CAA and SoCon bubble teams have. It's the same with the people saying Montana State has a chance. There would need to be some serious snubbing for that to happen.

Let the 'snubbing' begin. Is NDSU better than:

New Hampshire…yes. The only win that deserves any merit is beating UMass by 31. Defense is slightly above average. (gave up 43 points to Rhode Island)

Richmond…probably not

Maine…yes. Two big losses to good teams. No convincing wins over decent-good teams.

William & Mary…yes. Don’t stack up against top-ranked teams. Lose by 24 to JMU and will get man-handled again next week (Richmond).

Elon…maybe. 2-3 close wins over mediocre teams. Wofford handled them by 35. Best game appears to be losing to AppSt. by 8.

NDSU has 4 losses.
L to Youngstown: Youngstown showed their talent this game. We saw a YSU team that no one else saw this year. NDSU was just sloppy and couldn’t get anything together and penalties/turnovers killed us. Embarrassing, but we only lost by 8.

Wyoming (FBS): We were up 10-0 at half. The way we handled them (they got 78 total yards in 1st half) it should’ve been more like 21-0, but injuries and turnovers killed us. The injuries, penalties and altitude (7200’) caught up with us in the second half. Wyo picked off pass with 1:28 left that set up a FG with 4 seconds left. We lost by 3.

Western Illinois: Lost due to a high snap during a punt that set up a WIU TD. NDSU should have won 29-20. They lost by 5.

Northern Iowa: Panthers had 31 more yards of total offense. NDSU QB throws 4 INTs and offense has another turnover (5 TOs for game). Enough said. Bison only lose by 10.

NDSU beat Southern Illinois 35-27. a good win over SDSU next weekend along with third place in the tough MVFC should give us a slim chance at the playoffs.

I say we get in over UNH, Maine, and W&M. Montana State has no argument for playoffs. They've never been in top 25 all year.

[mainejeff]

I agree with you 100% and not just because I am a UR fan. The loser of this game is going to be a top-10 team in the power rankings and arguably a better team than the UNH-Maine winner. UR destroyed Maine and W&M beat UNH at UNH. Case closed there.

B.S.

The winner of Maine/UNH gets in over an 8-4 Richmond team.......CASE CLOSED.

[mainejeff]

Maine (got blown out by JMU/Richmond by combined 47 points!)

Actually Maine was tied with JMU 10-10 going into the 4th Q and lost by 14 after a muffed on-sides kick xrolleyesx xmadx xmadx

That game was after the Richmond game which was a blowout.

Since then, Maine has a new QB, found the best running game in the CAA, and has reeled off 6 straight wins. xthumbsupx xwhistlex

[Eight Legger]

B.S.

The winner of Maine/UNH gets in over an 8-4 Richmond team.......CASE CLOSED.

Keep thinking that if it makes you happy. The fact is, we will have 0 losses to a team ranked outside the top 10, and the same would hold true for Maine. In that case, since we whipped you head to head, you lose out. Now if one of our losses were to Towson or Georgetown, I would agree with you.

[Thundering_Herd]

B.S.

The winner of Maine/UNH gets in over an 8-4 Richmond team.......CASE CLOSED.

Um, yeah. Richmond will probably be 9-3 with a BIG win over Maine. If they win, how's Maine better than Richmond?

[mainejeff]

Keep thinking that if it makes you happy. The fact is, we will have 0 losses to a team ranked outside the top 10, and the same would hold true for Maine. In that case, since we whipped you head to head, you lose out. Now if one of our losses were to Towson or Georgetown, I would agree with you.

You can cherish your big September win......but if Maine goes 9-3 (6-2 in the CAA) with 7 straight wins to end the season.......they are in no matter what our 8-legged friends do next weekend. xthumbsupx

[mainejeff]

Um, yeah. Richmond will probably be 9-3 with a BIG win over Maine. If they win, how's Maine better than Richmond?

Ummm....yeah.....ummm.....I think that we are arguing about a possible 9-3 Maine team with 7 straight wins vs. a possible 8-4 Richmond team......ummm, yeah......OK. xrolleyesx xpeacex

[LehighFan11]

but we only lost by 8.[/B]

Only by 8 to Youngstown? God I hope you only lost by 8 to them. I think Lehigh could lose by 8 to them this year. NDSU ended their playoff chances with that early season loss, better luck next year

[Thundering_Herd]

Better luck next year? It ain't over yet...

[Chi Panther]

The MVFC is not getting 3 teams this year.

The UNI game was not as close as you imply. The SIU game is a great win.

YSU is not as bad as non MVFC fans think, but still not a good team this year. Should not have lost to WIU. All you have to do with those guys is stop the run.

Looking at UNI's history....you do NOT make the playoffs in the MVFC/GFC with a 7-4 record with a 16 team playoff.

[Native]

Better luck next year? It ain't over yet...

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx Nice embedded pic!

[URMite]

One team nobody has mentioned is Prarie View. Aren't they 9-1 with 7 div I wins? Do they have a game left? Do they enter the discussion if UNH & Liberty win?

[DSUrocks07]

One team nobody has mentioned is Prarie View. Aren't they 9-1 with 7 div I wins? Do they have a game left? Do they enter the discussion if UNH & Liberty win?

I wish...xsmhx It would be a great story as well...they just don't have the quality wins to merit a playoff berth. Not to mention the canceled game (against SHSU I believe). So their season is over unless they make the SCG.

[tingly]

In 40 ratings/rankings, Prairie View is playoff-level in 1 of them. The average is in the 50's somewhere. I imagine they'll get discussed, but not for long.

[URMite]

I wish...xsmhx It would be a great story as well...they just don't have the quality wins to merit a playoff berth. Not to mention the canceled game (against SHSU I believe). So their season is over unless they make the SCG.

Thanks, forgot the shsu game. I was thinking that if they could get 1 more Div I win, they should be discussed...

[19Duke97]

Actually Maine was tied with JMU 10-10 going into the 4th Q and lost by 14 after a muffed on-sides kick xrolleyesx xmadx xmadx

That game was after the Richmond game which was a blowout.

Since then, Maine has a new QB, found the best running game in the CAA, and has reeled off 6 straight wins. xthumbsupx xwhistlex

I think JMU may have the best running game in the CAA, but it's just a guess. xnodx

[mainejeff]

I think JMU may have the best running game in the CAA, but it's just a guess. xnodx

You're probably right......3 of our 4 studs are freshmen. xsmiley_wix

[joecooll6]

Ummm....yeah.....ummm.....I think that we are arguing about a possible 9-3 Maine team with 7 straight wins vs. a possible 8-4 Richmond team......ummm, yeah......OK. xrolleyesx xpeacex

You're so full of anger.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

You're so full of anger.

You're just noticing this?

Mainejeff doesn't need to worry about us ... We're not going to be 8-4. Mainejeff needs to worry about beating UNH.

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

You're just noticing this?

Mainejeff doesn't need to worry about us ... We're not going to be 8-4. Mainejeff needs to worry about beating UNH.

xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

At this point we know that The Big Sky will get 1 AL bid, the MVC will get 1 AL bid, Wofford will get an AL bid, Cal Poly will get an AL bid, and Villanova will get an AL bid. That leaves three AL bid spots for W&M, Maine, UNH, Richmond, and Elon. Every team in the country other than these 5 are either a lock for the playoffs or have no chance IMO.

So the most important games are obviously going to be Elon-Liberty, UNH-Maine, and W&M-Richmond. Here's how I see the outcome for each scenario...

Scenario 1
Elon wins at Liberty
UNH loses at Maine
Richmond loses at W&M
Elon, Maine, and W&M get the three spots

Scenario 2
Elon loses at Liberty
UNH wins at Maine
Richmond loses at W&M
easy, UNH, W&M, and Richmond get the three spots

Scenario 3
Elon loses at Liberty
UNH loses at Maine
Richmond wins at W&M
Maine, Richmond, and Elon get the three spots

Scenario 4
Elon wins at Liberty
UNH wins at Maine
Richmond loses at W&M
easy, Elon, UNH, and W&M get the three spots

Scenario 5
Elon wins at Liberty
UNH loses at Maine
Richmond wins at W&M
Elon, Maine, and Richmond get the three spots

Scenario 6
Elon loses at Liberty
UNH wins at Maine
Richmond wins at W&M
Richmond, UNH, and Maine get the three spots

Scenario 7
Elon wins at Liberty
UNH wins at Maine
Richmond wins at W&M
Elon, UNH, and Richmond get the three spots

Scenario 8
Elon loses at Liberty
UNH loses at Maine
Richmond loses at W&M
Maine, W&M, and UNH get the three spots

totals
Elon: get in in 5 of the 8 scenarios
UNH: get in in 5 of the 8 scenarios
Maine: get in in 5 of the 8 scenarios
W&M: get in in 4 of the 8 scenarios
Richmond: ge tin in 5 of the 8 scenarios

So, yeah, I don't think the committee will hesitate to put 5 CAA teams in again, but I do think Elon is in if they beat Liberty no matter what else happens.

[santosballnewhampshire]

At this point we know that The Big Sky will get 1 AL bid, the MVC will get 1 AL bid, Wofford will get an AL bid, Cal Poly will get an AL bid, and Villanova will get an AL bid. That leaves three AL bid spots for W&M, Maine, UNH, Richmond, and Elon. Every team in the country other than these 5 are either a lock for the playoffs or have no chance IMO.

So the most important games are obviously going to be Elon-Liberty, UNH-Maine, and W&M-Richmond. Here's how I see the outcome for each scenario...

Scenario 1
Elon wins at Liberty
UNH loses at Maine
Richmond loses at W&M
Elon, Maine, and W&M get the three spots

Scenario 2
Elon loses at Liberty
UNH wins at Maine
Richmond loses at W&M
easy, UNH, W&M, and Richmond get the three spots

Scenario 3
Elon loses at Liberty
UNH loses at Maine
Richmond wins at W&M
Maine, Richmond, and Elon get the three spots

Scenario 4
Elon wins at Liberty
UNH wins at Maine
Richmond loses at W&M
easy, Elon, UNH, and W&M get the three spots

Scenario 5
Elon wins at Liberty
UNH loses at Maine
Richmond wins at W&M
Elon, Maine, and Richmond get the three spots

Scenario 6
Elon loses at Liberty
UNH wins at Maine
Richmond wins at W&M
Richmond, UNH, and Maine get the three spots

Scenario 7
Elon wins at Liberty
UNH wins at Maine
Richmond wins at W&M
Elon, UNH, and Richmond get the three spots

Scenario 8
Elon loses at Liberty
UNH loses at Maine
Richmond loses at W&M
Maine, W&M, and UNH get the three spots

totals
Elon: get in in 5 of the 8 scenarios
UNH: get in in 5 of the 8 scenarios
Maine: get in in 5 of the 8 scenarios
W&M: get in in 4 of the 8 scenarios
Richmond: ge tin in 5 of the 8 scenarios

So, yeah, I don't think the committee will hesitate to put 5 CAA teams in again, but I do think Elon is in if they beat Liberty no matter what else happens.

You think that if UNH, Elon, and W&M all lose, they take Richmond, Maine, and Elon? I'm not sure they take a 4 loss Elon over a 3 loss UNH.

[Reign of Terrier]

Let the 'snubbing' begin. Is NDSU better than:

New Hampshire…yes. The only win that deserves any merit is beating UMass by 31. Defense is slightly above average. (gave up 43 points to Rhode Island)

Richmond…probably not

Maine…yes. Two big losses to good teams. No convincing wins over decent-good teams.

William & Mary…yes. Don’t stack up against top-ranked teams. Lose by 24 to JMU and will get man-handled again next week (Richmond).

Elon…maybe. 2-3 close wins over mediocre teams. Wofford handled them by 35. Best game appears to be losing to AppSt. by 8.

NDSU has 4 losses.
L to Youngstown: Youngstown showed their talent this game. We saw a YSU team that no one else saw this year. NDSU was just sloppy and couldn’t get anything together and penalties/turnovers killed us. Embarrassing, but we only lost by 8.

Wyoming (FBS): We were up 10-0 at half. The way we handled them (they got 78 total yards in 1st half) it should’ve been more like 21-0, but injuries and turnovers killed us. The injuries, penalties and altitude (7200’) caught up with us in the second half. Wyo picked off pass with 1:28 left that set up a FG with 4 seconds left. We lost by 3.

Western Illinois: Lost due to a high snap during a punt that set up a WIU TD. NDSU should have won 29-20. They lost by 5.

Northern Iowa: Panthers had 31 more yards of total offense. NDSU QB throws 4 INTs and offense has another turnover (5 TOs for game). Enough said. Bison only lose by 10.

NDSU beat Southern Illinois 35-27. a good win over SDSU next weekend along with third place in the tough MVFC should give us a slim chance at the playoffs.

I say we get in over UNH, Maine, and W&M. Montana State has no argument for playoffs. They've never been in top 25 all year.

When the commitee look at your resume they're not going to look at how you lose they will look at how many wins/quality wins or losses you have. You can argue all day about each game but it won't satisfy the commitee

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

You think that if UNH, Elon, and W&M all lose, they take Richmond, Maine, and Elon? I'm not sure they take a 4 loss Elon over a 3 loss UNH.

Losses to W&M, Maine, and Villanova would mean that you have only beaten one CAA team with a winning record, and possibly none if UMass loses to Hofstra.

[tingly]

I broke it down a bit. Lots of new Liberty fans are born.

Elon is in with a win or UNH & Richmond wins.
Maine is in with a win or Liberty & Richmond wins.
UNH is in with a win or Liberty & W&M wins.
Richmond is in with a win or Liberty & UNH wins.
W&M is in with a win.

[R3TRO]

I think its comical that you guys sit here and regurgitate the same scenario's over and over. Just wait one week.

xdeadhorsex

[WOCO]

Never mind whoops. Edit. They lost to a really bad Presbyterian team. Didn't get blown out. The Presbyterian team got blown out 4 times to ranked teams.

Liberty didn't get blown out by anyone like the rest of the teams but the competition wasn't as good on a week to week basis.


You can't forget the evangelical vote on the committeexnonox xnonox xnonox xnonox xnonox xnonox

[gabe01]

It could even come down to NDSU vs. Maine or W&M, and both CAA teams have a better resume than NDSU, even if they both lose next week, and NDSU wins.

I contend a playoff team NEVER gets blown out.

Maine- has been blown out by Richmond and James Madison and have no quality wins. I don't think they are playoff worthy even if they beat New Hampshire but that will give them 4 losses.

W&M- Got blown out by 24 points last night. Sorry but a playoff team doens't get blown out that badly. They have 3 losses and if they beat Richmond then they should get in but I don't think that happens. Richmond is too good. W&M ends the season on a 2 game losing streak and 4 losses. It doesn't matter how you start. It's how you finish that counts.

Elon - When you lose to Wofford by 5 TD's and Richmond by 18, are you playoff worthy? A loss at Liberty would knock them out of the playoffs and give them 4 losses.

FURMAN - 4 losses mean it's going to be tough but losses by 7, 12, and 21 points are not very convincing. Even if they beat Wofford I don't think they get in. Furman finishes the season with 5 losses.

NDSU - Lost 4 close games. Last second field goal to Wyoming (who hasn't lost to an FCS team since '78), and two- 1 score losses to teams that were ranked at the time. The worst loss was to UNI by 10 points. That was UNI's closest margin of victory at home all season we committed 5 turnovers, and it was still only 10 points.

I'm just saying NDSU has just as good of a chance as those other teams if we take care of business and W&M, Maine, and Elon lose very losable games. I hope they recognize that NDSU, assuming they beat SDSU, play in arguably the toughtest conference in the FCS, and are worthy.

Of coure if NDSU loses to SDSU none of this matters! :)

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

I contend a playoff team NEVER gets blown out.

Maine- has been blown out by Richmond and James Madison and have no quality wins. I don't think they are playoff worthy even if they beat New Hampshire but that will give them 4 losses.

W&M- Got blown out by 24 points last night. Sorry but a playoff team doens't get blown out that badly. They have 3 losses and if they beat Richmond then they should get in but I don't think that happens. Richmond is too good. W&M ends the season on a 2 game losing streak and 4 losses. It doesn't matter how you start. It's how you finish that counts.

Elon - When you lose to Wofford by 5 TD's and Richmond by 18, are you playoff worthy? A loss at Liberty would knock them out of the playoffs and give them 4 losses.

FURMAN - 4 losses mean it's going to be tough but losses by 7, 12, and 21 points are not very convincing. Even if they beat Wofford I don't think they get in. Furman finishes the season with 5 losses.

NDSU - Lost 4 close games. Last second field goal to Wyoming (who hasn't lost to an FCS team since '78), and two- 1 score losses to teams that were ranked at the time. The worst loss was to UNI by 10 points. That was UNI's closest margin of victory at home all season we committed 5 turnovers, and it was still only 10 points.

I'm just saying NDSU has just as good of a chance as those other teams if we take care of business and W&M, Maine, and Elon lose very losable games. I hope they recognize that NDSU, assuming they beat SDSU, play in arguably the toughtest conference in the FCS, and are worthy.

Of coure if NDSU loses to SDSU none of this matters! :)

You were really starting to sell me until this happened...

[EKUSteve]

Not to pop the NDSU bubble, but if they are under consideration at 4 losses, then Jax State would probably get in at 8 - 3 or Tenn St at 9 - 3.

Jax St is finished and TSU has a game left with Murray. Not sure if the OVC gets a second bid if there are lots of SoCon or CAA teams with 3 losses, but if not, then it might.

[gabe01]

Not to pop the NDSU bubble, but if they are under consideration at 4 losses, then Jax State would probably get in at 8 - 3 or Tenn St at 9 - 3.

Jax St is finished and TSU has a game left with Murray. Not sure if the OVC gets a second bid if there are lots of SoCon or CAA teams with 3 losses, but if not, then it might.

I would be shocked if the OVC gets an at large bid. Problem is I think the competition is much better in the CAA, South, and Missouri Valley. You could certainly make a case with the #of wins but I think the annual first round OVC playoff losses work against you guys.

I was looking for commmon opponents and they are tough to find. Here is the best I can come up with.

Common opponents: Jacksonville State and NDSU both played Austin Peay at home.

NDSU 41-6 final. 41-6 after 3rd. Pulled starters. Held Austin Pey to 91 yards of total offense.

JVST 35-22 final. 28-22 after 3rd. Austin Peay put up 393 yards of offense and won the time of possession.

[BlackBear]

I contend a playoff team NEVER gets blown out.

Maine- has been blown out by Richmond and James Madison and have no quality wins. I don't think they are playoff worthy even if they beat New Hampshire but that will give them 4 losses.

W&M- Got blown out by 24 points last night. Sorry but a playoff team doens't get blown out that badly. They have 3 losses and if they beat Richmond then they should get in but I don't think that happens. Richmond is too good. W&M ends the season on a 2 game losing streak and 4 losses. It doesn't matter how you start. It's how you finish that counts.

Elon - When you lose to Wofford by 5 TD's and Richmond by 18, are you playoff worthy? A loss at Liberty would knock them out of the playoffs and give them 4 losses.

FURMAN - 4 losses mean it's going to be tough but losses by 7, 12, and 21 points are not very convincing. Even if they beat Wofford I don't think they get in. Furman finishes the season with 5 losses.

NDSU - Lost 4 close games. Last second field goal to Wyoming (who hasn't lost to an FCS team since '78), and two- 1 score losses to teams that were ranked at the time. The worst loss was to UNI by 10 points. That was UNI's closest margin of victory at home all season we committed 5 turnovers, and it was still only 10 points.

I'm just saying NDSU has just as good of a chance as those other teams if we take care of business and W&M, Maine, and Elon lose very losable games. I hope they recognize that NDSU, assuming they beat SDSU, play in arguably the toughtest conference in the FCS, and are worthy.

Of coure if NDSU loses to SDSU none of this matters! :)

My favorite part is "two- 1 score lossses to teams that were ranked at the time. Maine was with Richmond until mid-3rd quarter and was tied with JMU starting the 4th quarter. And both those at the time were ranked #1 and are still ranked high.

[Thundering_Herd]

My favorite part is "two- 1 score lossses to teams that were ranked at the time. Maine was with Richmond until mid-3rd quarter and was tied with JMU starting the 4th quarter. And both those at the time were ranked #1 and are still ranked high.

I like how you are poking fun at this Bison fan's explanation and then you go and do the same damn thing! I see that Maine fans expect to get in, but they won't. I pray to God that they don't,... you fellas feel that lucky do ya? You are lucky enough that you didn't play us in 2001 when we were DII. That would've been embarrassing fer ya!!!

[BlackBear]

I like how you are poking fun at this Bison fan's explanation and then you go and do the same damn thing! I see that Maine fans expect to get in, but they won't. I pray to God that they don't,... you fellas feel that lucky do ya? You are lucky enough that you didn't play us in 2001 when we were DII. That would've been embarrassing fer ya!!!

I was being sarcastic. Proving a point that it doesn't matter whether you blow a team out or not.

[rcny46]

I like how you are poking fun at this Bison fan's explanation and then you go and do the same damn thing! I see that Maine fans expect to get in, but they won't. I pray to God that they don't,... you fellas feel that lucky do ya? You are lucky enough that you didn't play us in 2001 when we were DII. That would've been embarrassing fer ya!!!

The fact is though,Maine will be in with a win over UNH Saturday.

[LehighFan11]

Maine is in with a win and NDSU is out period

[appstate1998]

Maine has a football team?

[jlcharles]

Actually Maine was tied with JMU 10-10 going into the 4th Q and lost by 14 after a muffed on-sides kick xrolleyesx xmadx xmadx

That game was after the Richmond game which was a blowout.

Since then, Maine has a new QB, found the best running game in the CAA, and has reeled off 6 straight wins. xthumbsupx xwhistlex

I think JMU has something to say about that. Averaging nearly 30 yards a game more than Maine.

[RazorEdge19]

I contend a playoff team NEVER gets blown out.

Maine- has been blown out by Richmond and James Madison and have no quality wins. I don't think they are playoff worthy even if they beat New Hampshire but that will give them 4 losses.

W&M- Got blown out by 24 points last night. Sorry but a playoff team doens't get blown out that badly. They have 3 losses and if they beat Richmond then they should get in but I don't think that happens. Richmond is too good. W&M ends the season on a 2 game losing streak and 4 losses. It doesn't matter how you start. It's how you finish that counts.

Elon - When you lose to Wofford by 5 TD's and Richmond by 18, are you playoff worthy? A loss at Liberty would knock them out of the playoffs and give them 4 losses.

FURMAN - 4 losses mean it's going to be tough but losses by 7, 12, and 21 points are not very convincing. Even if they beat Wofford I don't think they get in. Furman finishes the season with 5 losses.

NDSU - Lost 4 close games. Last second field goal to Wyoming (who hasn't lost to an FCS team since '78), and two- 1 score losses to teams that were ranked at the time. The worst loss was to UNI by 10 points. That was UNI's closest margin of victory at home all season we committed 5 turnovers, and it was still only 10 points.

I'm just saying NDSU has just as good of a chance as those other teams if we take care of business and W&M, Maine, and Elon lose very losable games. I hope they recognize that NDSU, assuming they beat SDSU, play in arguably the toughtest conference in the FCS, and are worthy.

Of coure if NDSU loses to SDSU none of this matters! :)

So what does that say about an 8-2 Wofford team that could potentially finish 9-2?

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Maine has a football team?

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

Maine has a football team?

.......and about two posters on the boards!!!!!xrotatehx :D

[gabe01]

So what does that say about an 8-2 Wofford team that could potentially finish 9-2?

I don't know...you better take that one.

I have Wofford making the playoffs because they have smoked every team they have played and were competitive with South Carolina out of the SEC.

Then the Appalachian State game hit. I watched that game on ESPN and I think Appy was extra jacked up because it was a national game and they played the perfect game committing zero turnovers, while Wofford played their worst game, turning the ball over 5 times. One team played their best while the other was their worst. It happens.

The other teams I was talking about got smoked multiple times.

NDSU has not been blown out once since 2003 (@Cal Poly) and have only lost 1 game by more than 10 points in 6 years since transitioning to D1-AA

[gabe01]

When the commitee look at your resume they're not going to look at how you lose they will look at how many wins/quality wins or losses you have. You can argue all day about each game but it won't satisfy the commitee

In that case, we beat Southern Illinois, who is going to win the MVC. Their only loss was to NDSU.

[gabe01]

The fact is though,Maine will be in with a win over UNH Saturday.

New Hampshire will not lose that game and Maine will not get in.If they do win I'll give props but I don't believe they are a playoff caliber team.

[gabe01]

My favorite part is "two- 1 score lossses to teams that were ranked at the time. Maine was with Richmond until mid-3rd quarter and was tied with JMU starting the 4th quarter. And both those at the time were ranked #1 and are still ranked high.

Actually, Western Illinois is still ranked in the SME poll. UNI is a top 5 team. The only bad loss was to Youngstown. And yes, they were ranked when we lost by 1 score. So that actually strengthens my point.

[RazorEdge19]

I don't know...you better take that one.

I have Wofford making the playoffs because they have smoked every team they have played and were competitive with South Carolina out of the SEC.

Then the Appalachian State game hit. I watched that game on ESPN and I think Appy was extra jacked up because it was a national game and they played the perfect game committing zero turnovers, while Wofford played their worst game, turning the ball over 5 times. One team played their best while the other was their worst. It happens.

The other teams I was talking about got smoked multiple times.

NDSU has not been blown out once since 2003 (@Cal Poly) and have only lost 1 game by more than 10 points in 6 years since transitioning to D1-AA

I think I like your answer. And I think if those two teams play again in the playoffs, it could definitely be very interesting.

[gabe01]

Maine is in with a win and NDSU is out period

Maine is in with a win so they control their own destiny. Problem is they have to beat a damn good New Hampshire team.

NDSU needs help. They need a win and a loss by Maine (vs NH), W&M (vs Richmond), and an Elon (at Liberty.)

We probably need Furman to lose @ Wofford too if they don't drop below us in the polls but that is also a distinct possibility. Wofford doesn't lose much at home.

It's rare 4 games go your way but this is actually quite possible. Tomorrows polls will tell us a lot too.

[BigSouthFB]

Maine is in with a win so they control their own destiny. Problem is they have to beat a damn good New Hampshire team.

NDSU needs help. They need a win and a loss by Maine (vs NH), W&M (vs Richmond), and an Elon (at Liberty.)

We probably need Furman to lose @ Wofford too if they don't drop below us in the polls but that is also a distinct possibility. Wofford doesn't lose much at home.

It's rare 4 games go your way but this is actually quite possible. Tomorrows polls will tell us a lot too.

NDSU will not get in over Liberty even if all that does happen. they have a Common opponent on a common field. NDSU lost. Liberty won.

[joecooll6]

I don't know...you better take that one.

I have Wofford making the playoffs because they have smoked every team they have played and were competitive with South Carolina out of the SEC.

Then the Appalachian State game hit. I watched that game on ESPN and I think Appy was extra jacked up because it was a national game and they played the perfect game committing zero turnovers, while Wofford played their worst game, turning the ball over 5 times. One team played their best while the other was their worst. It happens.

The other teams I was talking about got smoked multiple times.

NDSU has not been blown out once since 2003 (@Cal Poly) and have only lost 1 game by more than 10 points in 6 years since transitioning to D1-AA

Are you a young kid? I only say that because your logic, breaking down NDSU's games while not really breaking down the competition, sounds like that of a hopeful young kid who doesn't really know any better.

[joecooll6]

NDSU will not get in over Liberty even if all that does happen. they have a Common opponent on a common field. NDSU lost. Liberty won.

I tend to agree. I think Liberty still has a shot to make it if UNH wins, Richmond wins and Liberty wins. In that case UNH would be in, along with Richmond.

W&M would be 7-4
Maine would be 8-4 with only one decent win, UMass
Elon would be 8-4
NDSU would be 7-4

Liberty would be 10-2, with a big win over Elon, which puts them ahead of Elon, would have 2 less losses than any of the other teams, would have a bigger win than any of Maine's wins, would have beaten a team that beat NDSU, would have a bigger win and a better record than any OVC or MEAC team, and their win over Elon would be comparable to W&M's best win and they would be 2.5 games better than W&M.

I realize their schedule is crap, but they would make a compelling arguement and I think the committee might bite.

[mainejeff]

You're so full of anger.

LOL.

You're so full of sh........

xcoffeex

[mainejeff]

You're just noticing this?

Mainejeff doesn't need to worry about us ... We're not going to be 8-4. Mainejeff needs to worry about beating UNH.

And you need to worry about beating Bill & Mary. xnodx xnodx xnodx

[mainejeff]

I contend a playoff team NEVER gets blown out.

Maine- has been blown out by Richmond and James Madison and have no quality wins. I don't think they are playoff worthy even if they beat New Hampshire but that will give them 4 losses.

Once again xrolleyesx .......Maine was not blown out by JMU! They were tied 10-10 going into the 4th Q and lost by 14 points.

[mainejeff]

Maine has a football team?

Yeah.....we beat you at YOUR STADIUM back in 2002 in the playoffs. You don't remember that???

xcoffeex

[mainejeff]

I think JMU has something to say about that. Averaging nearly 30 yards a game more than Maine.

Ooooooh......a whole 30 yards more? xrolleyesx

[mainejeff]

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

Didn't Richmond almost disband their program a couple of years ago? xconfusedx

[mainejeff]

New Hampshire will not lose that game and Maine will not get in.If they do win I'll give props but I don't believe they are a playoff caliber team.

Your team is OUT.....PERIOD.

[TheBisonator]

Your team is OUT.....PERIOD.

Your team has as good of a chance as us....PERIOD.

[DSUrocks07]

Yeah.....we beat you at YOUR STADIUM back in 2002 in the playoffs. You don't remember that???

xcoffeex

You must be referring to 2002BA (Before App), not much is known about that time period to many AGSers...(or App fans for that matter). xwhistlex

[Skjellyfetti]

You must be referring to 2002BA (Before App), not much is known about that time period to many AGSers...(or App fans for that matter). xwhistlex

2002 years before App. xeekx

How did the world survive? Who provided the excellent distilled products?

[T-Dog]

Well, since no one else is talking about it because it would probably make their brain hurt, I sacrificed my brain to defrag the Southland scenario. Thanks to some timely info from the Southaldn website, here's how the autobid will be determined through EVERY SCENARIO POSSIBLE. Here's what I wrote on the MMB.


The Southland autobid. This conference in a jumble. UCA is the top team, but due to transition, they aren't playoff eligible. Thus Texas St is in the drivers seat. Thus here we go.

If Texas St beat Sam Houston St next week, they get the autobid. If not, then McNeese St can get it if they beat UCA. If both lose but Northwestern St wins, Texas St gets it with the head-to-head win over McNeese. But if UCA and McNeese lose and Northwestern St wins, it's a three way tie with all being 1-1 vs each other and all having lost to UCA.

According to the Southland's website, it goes to record against the next highest rated team after that. So then the winner of the Nicholls St/Southeastern Louisiana game becomes the key to it all. That winner would be tied with Sam Houston St for next best records so records of McNeese, Texas St and Northwestern St would be compared with Sam Houston St and the Nicholls St/Southeatern Louisiana winner. If Nicholls St wins, Northwestern gets the autobid with having a 2-0 record against SHSU and Nicholls St both compared to 1-1 for McNeese and Texas St. If Southeastern Louisiana wins, then McNeese gets the autobid by being 2-0 against SHSU and SE LA compared to 1-1 for Northwestern and Texas St.

So amazingly, all the Southland games in the final week could have some importance to who wins the auto bid. xrotatehx xrulesx xeekx

[tingly]

Percents are pretending each game is a coinflip. Not sure I got the scenarios right.

If Texas State wins - Texas State. (50%)
If Texas State, McNeese State & Northwestern State lose - Texas State. (12.5%)
If Texas State & Central Arkansas lose - McNeese State. (25%)
If Texas State, McNeese State, SF Austin & Nicholls State lose - McNeese State. (6.25%)
If Texas State, McNeese State, SF Austin & SE Louisiana lose - Northwestern State. (6.25%)

[appstate1998]

Yeah.....we beat you at YOUR STADIUM back in 2002 in the playoffs. You don't remember that???

xcoffeex

unfortunately I do xbawlingx I was at that game and it was another classic first round choke for us at that point. Letting you score all of your points in the fourth quarter xnonono2x

I was actually surprised they gave us a home game that year.

Life hasn't been to kind though since that fateful afternoon at the Rock for your program though has it

[nmatsen]

Villanova should be counting their lucky stars after escaping the upset today. Their finale with Delaware would have been a play in game if not.

How can so many say that if Nova lost last week that they would have had to win to even get in but still argue that they are deserving of a seed?

[joecooll6]

LOL.

You're so full of sh........

xcoffeex

Wow, so defensive. You're like a Dayton fan or something.

[WrenFGun]

Maine is in with a win. Get off of Mainejeff on that one. The committee will not leave a 9-3 CAA team out of the playoffs with seven straight wins.

There are only 5 teams under consideration for the last three spots. Everyone else has severely tarnished their resume. One spot will go to the Richmond/W&M winner, and one spot will go to the Maine/UNH winner.

I believe the committee would consider Liberty in the scenario where UNH, Richmond and Liberty win this weekend. I think they'd likely be the 16th team in, ahead of 8-4 Maine or 7-4 W&M. If UNH or Richmond lose, Liberty is out, win or lose, IMO.

A William & Mary win by no means discounts Richmond from the playoffs. They could get in over both Elon and Liberty, but would absolutely get in over Liberty. A UNH loss still could see them make the playoffs with a Richmond win and a Liberty win, as I struggle to think a 9-2 Liberty gets in over an 8-3 UNH. I think it's possible people are still debating on Cal Poly as well, but I doubt it.

[WrenFGun]

North Dakota State will not make the playoffs with a loss to Youngstown. End of story.

Also, you're talking about beating UNH, NDSU fans? UNH has lost to William and Mary by four on a TD with :11 seconds left on a pass that was likely over the line of scrimmage and after a game-winning INT was reversed on a questionable roughing the passer penalty, and lost to 'Nova in a game where 'Nova was not called for a single penalty. UNH trailed 14-13 midway through the fourth quarter in that one.

[Dukie95]

A William & Mary win by no means discounts Richmond from the playoffs. They could get in over both Elon and Liberty, but would absolutely get in over Liberty.

I think they would certainly deserve to be in over Elon and Liberty, but 4 losses would be tough to ignore.

[MacThor]

I think they would certainly deserve to be in over Elon and Liberty, but 4 losses would be tough to ignore.

But only three FCS losses, same # as Elon, and then there's that pesky win AT Elon.

[WrenFGun]

I think Elon is pretty clearly rooting for a Richmond victory. A Richmond loss and I think the CAA's a pretty good bet to get five teams in, as it's hard to imagine Elon getting in over a team that whalloped them.

I still think Elon/UNH is an interesting debate, too. Both have played questionable schedules, and the Furman/UMass games kind of cancel each other out. Elon has Georgia Southern and maybe Liberty, but I think Albany and FBS Army would stack up favorably, nevermind coming from the better rated conference.

[whitey]

But only three FCS losses, same # as Elon, and then there's that pesky win AT Elon.

Assuming Richmond (8-4):
Losses: @ FBS Virginia, James Madison, @ Villanova, @ W&M
Good Wins: @ Elon, Maine, @ Massachusetts

Assuming Elon (9-3):
Losses: Richmond, Wofford, @ App. State
Good Wins: Furman, @Georgia Southern, @ Liberty

It's close but how could you not give Richmond the edge here due to their big win @ Elon?

[whitey]

I think Elon is pretty clearly rooting for a Richmond victory. A Richmond loss and I think the CAA's a pretty good bet to get five teams in, as it's hard to imagine Elon getting in over a team that whalloped them.


Agreed.

[smcwildcat]

North Dakota State will not make the playoffs with a loss to Youngstown. End of story.

Also, you're talking about beating UNH, NDSU fans? UNH has lost to William and Mary by four on a TD with :11 seconds left on a pass that was likely over the line of scrimmage and after a game-winning INT was reversed on a questionable roughing the passer penalty, and lost to 'Nova in a game where 'Nova was not called for a single penalty. UNH trailed 14-13 midway through the fourth quarter in that one.

well said I was trying to put that all together but had no clue how to thanks!

[MacThor]

Assuming Richmond (8-4):
Losses: @ FBS Virginia, James Madison, @ Villanova, @ W&M
Good Wins: @ Elon, Maine, @ Massachusetts

Assuming Elon (9-3):
Losses: Richmond, Wofford, @ App. State
Good Wins: Furman, @Georgia Southern, @ Liberty

It's close but how could you not give Richmond the edge here due to their big win @ Elon?

Oh I certainly could. But apparently Chuck Burton cannot. :)

[89Hen]

What if MSU beats UM next week? MSU would have a record of 8-4, 7 D-I wins, will have won five straight, and will have just knocked off a top 5, current #3 in the GPI Griz team.

BTW, before todays game, MSU was #20 in the GPI.

It's a long shot, but possible.
No. Montana already laid an egg twice before to allow MSU to get in the playoffs. The Committee won't fall for it a third time. xsmiley_wix

[joecooll6]

Do you take Elon at 9-3 over an 8-4 Richmond team that beat them?

[rcny46]

Do you take Elon at 9-3 over an 8-4 Richmond team that beat them?

I think the "committee" would do just that.

[MacThor]

I think the "committee" would do just that.

I agree, and thus penalize teams for scheduling FBS games.

[Green26]

No. Montana already laid an egg twice before to allow MSU to get in the playoffs. The Committee won't fall for it a third time. xsmiley_wix

When has Montana "laid an egg twice" to allow MSU in the playoffs?

Montana has beaten MSU 19 of the last 22 games, or something like like.

Montana beat MSU 2 years ago, and then MSU got selected for the playoffs (and beat Furman in the first round). I believe MSU got the autobid once by beating UM, perhaps 4 or so years ago.