Playoff Selection Criteria...

[jstclmet]

Article by Bruce Dowd where he interviews McCutcheon on playoff selection criteria. Very good Questions

http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php?blog=5&title=the-caa-today-playoff-facts-review-and-i&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

[uofmman1122]

Question #3: I have heard many people say that the committee would resist putting two or three teams from the same conference in the top four seeds. So I asked John this question point blank and got a very direct answer; “It would be whatever the top four may be with no relevance to whatever conference they may be from.” So, end of that myth.xnodxxnodxxnodxxnodx

Looking better for Montana every day. xlolx:p

[WrenFGun]

Good Read!

[nmatsen]

How many teams with 8 D-I wins will be left out so Cal Poly can get in with their 7?

[danefan]

Now that's a behind-the-scenes scoop!

Good article.

[uofmman1122]

How many teams with 8 D-I wins will be left out so Cal Poly can get in with their 7?None that are actually better and more deserving than Cal Poly. xcoffeex

[nmatsen]

None that are actually better and more deserving than Cal Poly. xcoffeex


So rather than answer my question with facts you answered with a "your momma's so ugly" reply. Thanks.

[Grizzaholic]

Good read.

[Khan4Cats]

How many teams with 8 D-I wins will be left out so Cal Poly can get in with their 7?

Just Dayton.


And a few OVC and MEAC schools that, while they would not win a playoff game, would still beat Dayton by double digits if Dayton ever got the courage to try and schedule them.

[Ronbo]

How many teams with 8 D-I wins will be left out so Cal Poly can get in with their 7?

Well if Nova or Weber get seeds with (8) D-I wins over Montana with (10) D-I wins then it must not be that important. That's assuming all three win out.

[jcmanson]

Just Dayton.


And a few OVC and MEAC schools that, while they would not win a playoff game, would still beat Dayton by double digits if Dayton ever got the courage to try and schedule them.

Liberty could end up with 8 D1 wins.

[danefan]

How many teams with 8 D-I wins will be left out so Cal Poly can get in with their 7?

Albany will likely have 8 DI wins (but they aren't nearly as deserving as Cal Poly)

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

xnodxxnodxxnodxxnodx

Looking better for Montana every day. xlolx:p

Or Villanova xnodx

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

xnodxxnodxxnodxxnodx

Looking better for Montana every day. xlolx:p

Or Villanova xnodx

Which resume is stronger? A loss to Weber and playing a DII school and no FBS, or a loss to JMU and a loss to WVU? xwhistlex

[uofmman1122]

So rather than answer my question with facts you answered with a "your momma's so ugly" reply. Thanks.Boy, this is going to take a while.

7 teams currently have 8 D-I wins. Bolded ones will more than likely end up as at-large entries.

Montana
JMUASU
Elon
TSU
Colgate
Dayton

There's 2 teams.

Next, we have a ton of teams at 7 D-I wins, but I'll post the ones that will probably end up as at-large entries. I posted their probable number of D-I wins at the end of the season.

'Nova (9)
UNH (8)
UR (9)
UNI (9)
Wofford (9)

Add in Cal Poly, and you have a pretty strong At Large Field.

If this situation plays out, the other teams with 7 current D-I wins who lose to the above teams would be stuck at 7 wins, and those that would have 8 would not have hardly the resume that Cal Poly has. Honestly, which of these teams should get in over Cal Poly?

Maine (8 wins) having lost to UNH, Richmond, and JMU? NO
Albany (8 wins) Having lost to UNH, Delaware, and UMASS? NO
Lafayette (9 wins) having lost to Harvard and Colgate? NO
FAMU (9 or 8 wins) having lost to Delaware State, South Carolina State, and Morgan State? NO

So what about the teams that could upset and get in?

W&M - If they beat JMU and lose to Richmond, Richmond and W&M have 8 wins apiece. However, Richmond would get in over W&M, so it has nothing to do with Cal Poly. There's no way they'd put a 5th CAA team in if Cal Poly is 9-2. JMU, UR, 'Nova, and UNH get in with Cal Poly. Also, if they beat JMU and Richmond, Richmond is out. Cal Poly is in.

Maine - Very similar to W&M, except if they beat UNH, then UNH is out of the playoffs, and Maine is in, since UNH would have 7 D-I wins. Cal Poly is still in the field.

SDSU - If they beat SIU, then SIU is out with only 7 D-I wins, and 3 losses. A 7 D-I win Cal Poly gets in over a 7 D-I win SIU. Cal Poly is still alive.

Dayton - Please. xrolleyesx Dayton lost to Duquesne, they're pretty much done. No quality wins over any major teams. Cal Poly stays in.

I honestly don't see any 8 D-I win team that is better than Cal Poly, and I actually have facts to back it up. xcoffeexxthumbsupx

[Rob Iola]

I like this line: “The phenomenon of teams beating each other up and knocking each other off, that’s probably something that is not unique to just the CAA. I think you could see that in any of the competitive conferences"

I don't think he was referring to the Pioneer Conference...

[Tribe4SF]

Bruce Dowd is....

The Man!!!

[MacThor]

and any time we have the luxury of head-to-head competition that is obviously as clear an indicator as you are going to get because those two teams would have participated on the field against each other.

Then Dowd:
Elon is probably the SoCon team on the bubble and after their loss to App they will have three losses. If they get beat by Liberty at the end of the year they are definitely out. Even at 9-3, they may find themselves losing out to a fifth CAA team. They have no games against FBS schools and they have a big opening day loss at home to Richmond. So, for example, if the Tribe beats Richmond on the last day, then William & Mary gets to go to the dance. When you compare Richmond with four losses to Elon with three and the schedules of both, and the head-to-head win by Richmond, then I think Richmond goes instead of Elon.

While I agree that's what the committee should do, I think they'll punt, penalize UR for playing an FBS school, and send Elon. UR needs to win out.

[uofmman1122]

Or Villanova xnodx

Which resume is stronger? A loss to Weber and playing a DII school and no FBS, or a loss to JMU and a loss to WVU? xwhistlexI'll do what I did with UNI and SIU in another thread.

Favoring Montana

11-1 > 9-2
Win @ #3 Cal Poly > Win @ #12 W&M
GPI #3 > GPI #4 (Even barely, it's still better xrulesxxlolx)
Margin of victory has been huge in the last 5 weeks

Favoring 'Nova

JMU Loss > Weber Loss
Sagarin SOS #121 > Sagarin SOS #148
Win vs. #7 Richmond
Win vs. #13 UNH

This is a very, very even comparison. There are also many, many intangibles that I don't think should be taken into account.

The D-II Montana played was the best D-II any FCS team played all year. Currently #5 in the nation. Who knows how well Central Washington would have done against 'Nova. 'Nova may have killed them, or they may have lost. We'll never know.

WVU is a respectable loss, but again, we don't know how well Montana would have done against WVU. They may have been killed, and they may have beaten them.

In the end, it might very well be 'Nova and Montana that get seeded, since the interview said that conference championship has nothing to do with who is the best 4 teams. For all we know, Weber might not even get a seed, especially if I get lucky in two weeks and EWU beats them. xcoffeexxlolx

Who knows. xlolxxnodx

[JayJ79]

When I asked John about this he said that the one significant thing that came out of that meeting was the change in mileage that the committee can now consider for bus travel before having to arrange flights, which he said was expanded from 300 miles to 400 miles. The paper had it expanded to 350 miles, but either way it is more miles now which might actually help the committee set up a more fair approach to who plays where.

Hey, that means that UNI might actually have another (non-conference) playoff team in their "bus radius". Okay, so the only possibility for that (other than a Pioneer team, which isn't likely in the playoffs) is Eastern Illinois, and they are out of the running this year. (plus, they almost always end up playing SIU anyway)

[JayJ79]

For all we know, Weber might not even get a seed, especially if I get lucky in two weeks and EWU beats them. xcoffeexxlolx

What does you "getting lucky" have to do with the Weber football team?

Oh wait, not that kind of getting lucky.

[Native]

How many teams with 8 D-I wins will be left out so Cal Poly can get in with their 7?

Aw, c'mon! Not a fair question! xnonox

Cal Poly has gone out of their way and spent a lot of money to create an aggressive schedule, including three different competitive FCS conferences, an FCS independent and two FBS matchups, one of which they have already WON! The Mustangs' body of work this season is more impressive than all but a few, and their single cancellation was beyond their control. xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx

[Cranium716]

The D-II Montana played was the best D-II any FCS team played all year. Currently #5 in the nation. Who knows how well Central Washington would have done against 'Nova. 'Nova may have killed them, or they may have lost. We'll never know.

So if Montana played the best D-III team in the nation, would it matter how anyone else did against them? The best NAIA team? The fact is that it's a D-II school and it won't be viewed as a quality win by anyone's standards. Once you start bringing up your school's wins against D-II schools as evidence for a seed, then you know you're in trouble. Just stick with the Cal Poly win...


In the end, it might very well be 'Nova and Montana that get seeded, since the interview said that conference championship has nothing to do with who is the best 4 teams. For all we know, Weber might not even get a seed, especially if I get lucky in two weeks and EWU beats them. xcoffeexxlolx

He said that AFTER the top four seeds, rankings aren't considered as much. They strive to get the best four teams as the top seeds.

[uofmman1122]

So if Montana played the best D-III team in the nation, would it matter how anyone else did against them? The best NAIA team? The fact is that it's a D-II school and it won't be viewed as a quality win by anyone's standards. Once you start bringing up your school's wins against D-II schools as evidence for a seed, then you know you're in trouble. Just stick with the Cal Poly win...Considering CWU has a better NFL prospect QB than any FCS, and that they have a ton of FBS transfers, I think it does matter. CWU is not your average D-II bodybag game that most FCS teams schedule. They are good.

I guess using your logic, we really have no case to argue against FBS teams ragging on FCS, since we're just always inferior in every way. Congratulations on your double standard. xrolleyesx

He said that AFTER the top four seeds, rankings aren't considered as much. They strive to get the best four teams as the top seeds.xeyebrowx Here it is again:

Question #3: I have heard many people say that the committee would resist putting two or three teams from the same conference in the top four seeds. So I asked John this question point blank and got a very direct answer; “It would be whatever the top four may be with no relevance to whatever conference they may be from.” So, end of that myth.If Montana is ranked ahead of WSU and whoever wins the MVFC in the committee's eyes, Montana will get a seed over those teams, regardless of whether or not Weber, SIU, or UNI win their respective conference.

[wideright82]

I'll do what I did with UNI and SIU in another thread.

Favoring Montana

11-1 > 9-2
Win @ #3 Cal Poly > Win @ #12 W&M
GPI #3 > GPI #4 (Even barely, it's still better xrulesxxlolx)
Margin of victory has been huge in the last 5 weeks

Favoring 'Nova

JMU Loss > Weber Loss
Sagarin SOS #121 > Sagarin SOS #148
Win vs. #7 Richmond
Win vs. #13 UNH

This is a very, very even comparison. There are also many, many intangibles that I don't think should be taken into account.

The D-II Montana played was the best D-II any FCS team played all year. Currently #5 in the nation. Who knows how well Central Washington would have done against 'Nova. 'Nova may have killed them, or they may have lost. We'll never know.

WVU is a respectable loss, but again, we don't know how well Montana would have done against WVU. They may have been killed, and they may have beaten them.

In the end, it might very well be 'Nova and Montana that get seeded, since the interview said that conference championship has nothing to do with who is the best 4 teams. For all we know, Weber might not even get a seed, especially if I get lucky in two weeks and EWU beats them. xcoffeexxlolx

Who knows. xlolxxnodx


This is the one that I feel is the hardest. Especially when Weber gets thrown into the mix. They may just give it to UNI or SIU to avoid having to use Chaos Theory to make the seeding pick.

[uofmman1122]

This is the one that I feel is the hardest. Especially when Weber gets thrown into the mix. They may just give it to UNI or SIU to avoid having to use Chaos Theory to make the seeding pick.Even though I feel it'd be unfair to two of the teams if they did that, since I feel WSU, 'Nova, and UM are more deserving than SIU and UNI, I can see them doing it. xsmhx

[Cranium716]

Considering CWU has a better NFL prospect QB than any FCS, and that they have a ton of FBS transfers, I think it does matter. CWU is not your average D-II bodybag game that most FCS teams schedule. They are good.

I guess using your logic, we really have no case to argue against FBS teams ragging on FCS, since we're just always inferior in every way. Congratulations on your double standard. xrolleyesx

No, I'm saying that because CWU is a D-II team, it's ridiculous to consider them a quality win when you're arguing for a seed in the playoffs.

Do you think that LSU is going to list App St as one of their quality wins for the year, even though they're the #2 I-AA team? I think not... xwhistlex

[uofmman1122]

No, I'm saying that because CWU is a D-II team, it's ridiculous to consider them a quality win when you're arguing for a seed in the playoffs.

Do you think that LSU is going to list App St as one of their quality wins for the year, even though they're the #2 I-AA team? I think not... xwhistlexThat's because ASU is nowhere near as good as LSU. No FCS team is.

However, CWU could do well this year vs. a lot of FCS teams. That's the difference.

[Cranium716]

That's because ASU is nowhere near as good as LSU. No FCS team is.

However, CWU could do well this year vs. a lot of FCS teams. That's the difference.

Do you think Duke will list JMU as a quality win? UVA listing Richmond as a quality win? Hawaii/Utah listing Weber St as a quality win? None of those BCS schools are top-tier schools and they beat top-tier I-AA teams. And again, none of them will say that their wins over those teams were quality.

It doesn't matter if CWU was #1, #5, #10, #20, #100 in D-II, THEY ARE A D-II TEAM, so it's insane to say that a win over that team is evidence for a seed in the I-AA playoffs.

[Shellin]

I don't think he was actually saying that CWU is a quality win and the reason for us being a seed. I understood his argument to be more of an explanation of why we didn't beat CWU by 40 like a lot of the other D-II schools on FCS schedules this year.

[URMite]

Well if Nova or Weber get seeds with (8) D-I wins over Montana with (10) D-I wins then it must not be that important. That's assuming all three win out.

If Nova at 9-2 (3-1 vs 7+ Div I win teams) or Montana at 10-1 (1-1 vs 7+ Div I win teams) gets a seed, I don't see the other team being able to complain...

[uofmman1122]

I don't think he was actually saying that CWU is a quality win and the reason for us being a seed. I understood his argument to be more of an explanation of why we didn't beat CWU by 40 like a lot of the other D-II schools on FCS schedules this year.Exactly. xnodx

CWU is not a quality win by any stretch, but it's certainly shouldn't hurt our chances for being a seed, since they'd probably play any other seed team fairly close, as well. xpeacex

[tingly]

I tried my hand at the NCAA's GPI and got
1.00 James Madison
3.43 Appalachian St.
3.71 Montana
4.29 Villanova
5.57 Richmond & Weber St.
6.00 Cal Poly
8.86 No. Iowa
9.86 William & Mary
10.1 Wofford
10.7 New Hampshire
11.9 Elon
14.0 So. Illinois
15.3 Furman & Maine
16.3 Massachusetts & Central Arkansas
19.3 Harvard
20.4 McNeese St.
Pretending that this is THE criteria, I could see the seeds also go #3 Weber St., #4 Montana or #3 Villanova, #4 Weber St. [EDIT] Maybe Weber-Montana cuz Nova is behind early, 10-0.