2008 Bracketology, Week 4

[TheValleyRaider]

We are less than 2 weeks away from one of the greatest of days in FCS Football, Selection Sunday. I'm not 100% sure the playoff pictures has gotten any clearer, or that we'll know anything after that Saturday night. Nevertheless, we know something (enough to know we don't know anything), and that's where this comes in. As always, selections and brackets are assembled on the immutable principle of if the season ended today

First, the 8 Autobids
Big Sky-Weber State*
CAA-James Madison
MEAC-South Carolina State
MVFC-Northern Iowa-&
OVC-Tennessee State-^
Patriot-Colgate-%
Southern-Appalachian State
Southland-Northwestern State-$
*-officially clinched
&-UNI gets the autobid because they have 6 wins, while SIU and SDSU have only 5. UNI gets credit for having won their extra game so far, though the winner of the SIU-SDSU game this weekend will determine a great deal more for the conference title
^-TSU holds the tiebreakers over UTM and EKU, with those two teams still needing to face one another
%-Colgate holds the tiebreaker over HC because the Raiders beat the higher ranked Lafayette, while HC faces the Leopards this weekend
$-NWState gets the tiebreaker over Texas St and McNeese. NWSt is 1-0 in games amongst the 3, TSU is 1-1, McNeese is 0-1

Now the At-Larges, taken with the 8+1 formula
1-Montana
2-Villanova
3-Richmond
4-Cal Poly
5-Wofford
6-William & Mary
7-New Hampshire
8-Elon
+1-Southern Illinois
SIU gets added as the next at-large team. Maine was considered, but I felt that I couldn't bump a CAA team ahead of them, and 6 CAA was too much, even at this point. For now, Elon drops out, having no quality wins

Here's your Field of 16
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Colgate
James Madison
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Northwestern State
Richmond
South Carolina State
Southern Illinois
Tennessee State
Villanova
Weber State
William & Mary
Wofford

Brackets to follow shortly

[WrenFGun]

Excited to see your brackets, but yes, I was surprised about looking at Elon's schedule. It's very possible that they would be in worse shape than an 8-3 UNH or an 8-3 Maine.

[Grizzaholic]

You had better not have Weber St., Montana, and Cal Poly in the same bracket.

[WrenFGun]

You had better not have Weber St., Montana, and Cal Poly in the same bracket.

You're aware that it's very likely he will, because the committee will do everything they can to save on travel costs, yes?

[mcveyrl]

You're aware that it's very likely he will, because the committee will do everything they can to save on travel costs, yes?

Actually, it depends on travel (I'm not sure how each of those teams would travel to the other). More than one person on here has said that once a team has to fly, it's of very little consequence how far away they are.

[TheValleyRaider]

As a reminder, the Field of 16:
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Colgate
James Madison
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Northwestern State
Richmond
South Carolina State
Southern Illinois
Tennessee State
Villanova
Weber State
William & Mary
Wofford

Now to bracket them

First, we seed
Top 4 teams recieve seeds. These are done mostly with an eye towards ranking, with advantage given to conference champions
1-James Madison
2-Appalachian State
3-Weber State
4-Northern Iowa
JMU and ASU were straightforward selections. Weber State looks good at #3, and UNI gets the 4th seed because I picked them as conference champs this week. Montana and Villanova are the ones watching from the outside for a seed, waiting if one of these teams stumbles

Next, the matchups. 1st Round matchups are seeded geographically, with teams being regionalized as much as possible. Once you are on a plane, though, you are liable to wind up anywhere
James Madison with Tennessee State
Appalachian State with William & Mary
Weber State with Northwestern State
Northern Iowa with Richmond
Cal Poly with Montana
Colgate with New Hampshire
South Carolina State with Wofford
Southern Illinois with Villanova
This week had some particularly tough choices. Weber with NWState was the clear Big Sky-SLC matchup, while Colgate-UNH was the 2 most northern teams, and Montana-Cal Poly in another western game. SCSU was closer to Wofford, so they went there while TSU went to JMU. That took away the traditional MVFC-OVC matchup, but gave me some temas to match with the extra CAA sides. ASU, unfortunately, got the lowest-rated CAA team left in W&M, UNI got 3-loss Richmond, and that left SIU-Nova. Whew...

Now the home games. These are the hosts for 1st Round matchups. Seeds are guaranteed home games until they choose not to host, or face a higher seed. The other games are determined by bids, which I'm guessing based on past history and current attendance
James Madison hosts Tennessee State
Appalachian State hosts William & Mary
Weber State hosts Northwestern State
Northern Iowa hosts Richmond
Montana hosts Cal Poly
New Hampshire hosts Colgate
South Carolina State hosts Wofford
Villanova hosts Southern Illinois
Seeds were easily done. Montana was an obvious host. SCSU and UNH seem to be the likely high bidders in their matchups. Nova-SIU is rather unappealing to bidding, and could go both ways. I chose Villanova because of SIU's history of underbidding

Bracketing is the final step. Seeded teams are matched with unseeded teams for the Quarterfinal matchups. I tried to keep these based on rankings, with some view towards geography. Matchups are listed by the home team
James Madison with South Carolina State
Appalachian State with New Hampshire
Weber State with Villanova
Northern Iowa with Montana
SCSU-Wofford was a low-rated matchup, and they were southern enough to be sent with JMU. ASU got the also low-rated UNH-Colgate. Weber got Villanova-SIU, while UNI got the highest remaining matchup with Montana-Cal Poly

Finally, the brackets

1-James Madison
Tennessee State

South Carolina State
Wofford

4-Northern Iowa
Richmond

Montana
Cal Poly

#2-Appalachian State
William & Mary

New Hampshire
Colgate

#3-Weber State
Northwestern State

Villanova
Southern Illinois

This was a difficult week, and there are a handful of teams that could easily play themselves into the at-large picture in the next 2 weeks, including Maine, South Dakota State, Elon and Furman. Given the relative power of the top conferences, it continues to seem very unlikely that a team outside of them will snag an at-large. Cal Poly and Richmond are precariously balanced, but their spots could just as easily be taken by SoCon and CAA teams. Gonna be a wild two weeks, and could shape up to be one of the toughest playoffs ever

[Cleets]

You're aware that it's very likely he will, because the committee will do everything they can to save on travel costs, yes?

Actually that makes perfect sense: Due to travel costs no team west of the Mississippi will be selected...

there, problem solved



xeyebrowx

[ElonPride]

Excited to see your brackets, but yes, I was surprised about looking at Elon's schedule. It's very possible that they would be in worse shape than an 8-3 UNH or an 8-3 Maine.

???

Why would you think that? Most computer rankings even say the schedules are near even!

According to the Sargarin:
104 NH - Schedule rank 160
106 Elon - Schedule rank 158
112 Maine - Schedule Rank 150

[DSUrocks07]

As a reminder, the Field of 16:
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Colgate
James Madison
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Northwestern State
Richmond
South Carolina State
Southern Illinois
Tennessee State
Villanova
Weber State
William & Mary
Wofford

Now to bracket them

First, we seed
Top 4 teams recieve seeds. These are done mostly with an eye towards ranking, with advantage given to conference champions
1-James Madison
2-Appalachian State
3-Weber State
4-Northern Iowa
JMU and ASU were straightforward selections. Weber State looks good at #3, and UNI gets the 4th seed because I picked them as conference champs this week. Montana and Villanova are the ones watching from the outside for a seed, waiting if one of these teams stumbles

Next, the matchups. 1st Round matchups are seeded geographically, with teams being regionalized as much as possible. Once you are on a plane, though, you are liable to wind up anywhere
James Madison with Tennessee State
Appalachian State with William & Mary
Weber State with Northwestern State
Northern Iowa with Richmond
Cal Poly with Montana
Colgate with New Hampshire
South Carolina State with Wofford
Southern Illinois with Villanova
This week had some particularly tough choices. Weber with NWState was the clear Big Sky-SLC matchup, while Colgate-UNH was the 2 most northern teams, and Montana-Cal Poly in another western game. SCSU was closer to Wofford, so they went there while TSU went to JMU. That took away the traditional MVFC-OVC matchup, but gave me some temas to match with the extra CAA sides. ASU, unfortunately, got the lowest-rated CAA team left in W&M, UNI got 3-loss Richmond, and that left SIU-Nova. Whew...

Now the home games. These are the hosts for 1st Round matchups. Seeds are guaranteed home games until they choose not to host, or face a higher seed. The other games are determined by bids, which I'm guessing based on past history and current attendance
James Madison hosts Tennessee State
Appalachian State hosts William & Mary
Weber State hosts Northwestern State
Northern Iowa hosts Richmond
Montana hosts Cal Poly
New Hampshire hosts Colgate
South Carolina State hosts Wofford
Villanova hosts Southern Illinois
Seeds were easily done. Montana was an obvious host. SCSU and UNH seem to be the likely high bidders in their matchups. Nova-SIU is rather unappealing to bidding, and could go both ways. I chose Villanova because of SIU's history of underbidding

Bracketing is the final step. Seeded teams are matched with unseeded teams for the Quarterfinal matchups. I tried to keep these based on rankings, with some view towards geography. Matchups are listed by the home team
James Madison with South Carolina State
Appalachian State with New Hampshire
Weber State with Villanova
Northern Iowa with Montana
SCSU-Wofford was a low-rated matchup, and they were southern enough to be sent with JMU. ASU got the also low-rated UNH-Colgate. Weber got Villanova-SIU, while UNI got the highest remaining matchup with Montana-Cal Poly

Finally, the brackets

1-James Madison
Tennessee State

South Carolina State
Wofford

4-Northern Iowa
Richmond

Montana
Cal Poly

#2-Appalachian State
William & Mary

New Hampshire
Colgate

#3-Weber State
Northwestern State

Villanova
Southern Illinois

This was a difficult week, and there are a handful of teams that could easily play themselves into the at-large picture in the next 2 weeks, including Maine, South Dakota State, Elon and Furman. Given the relative power of the top conferences, it continues to seem very unlikely that a team outside of them will snag an at-large. Cal Poly and Richmond are precariously balanced, but their spots could just as easily be taken by SoCon and CAA teams. Gonna be a wild two weeks, and could shape up to be one of the toughest playoffs ever

I could definitely see this happening. I know that SC State's stadium holds 22,000. whats Wofford's capacity?

[Grizzaholic]

You're aware that it's very likely he will, because the committee will do everything they can to save on travel costs, yes?

Yes I do know that, but as another poster said before me, that once the plane is boarded travel costs are trivial.

[Dukie95]

JMU keeping the number 1 seed AND W&M and UR both making the field are mutually exclusive.

Case 1
For JMU to keep the #1 seed, they'll need to run the table, which would include a win over W&M.

If W&M beats UR, they're in over UR who would fall to 8-4.
If UR beats W&M, they're in over W&M who would fall to 7-4.

Case 2
W&M beats JMU and takes away the #1 seed from JMU.

W&M can lose to Richmond, yet they both make the field at 8-3 and 9-3, respectively.


So, W&M and UR can still both make the field, but JMU's no longer the #1 seed in that case.

[WrenFGun]

???

Why would you think that? Most computer rankings even say the schedules are near even!

According to the Sargarin:
104 NH - Schedule rank 160
106 Elon - Schedule rank 158
112 Maine - Schedule Rank 150

Well, yes, but UNH and Maine could put up a similar record in a tougher conference, which would probably give them the edge.

[WrenFGun]

JMU keeping the number 1 seed AND W&M and UR both making the field are mutually exclusive.

Case 1
For JMU to keep the #1 seed, they'll need to run the table, which would include a win over W&M.

If W&M beats UR, they're in over UR who would fall to 8-4.
If UR beats W&M, they're in over W&M who would fall to 7-4.

Case 2
W&M beats JMU and takes away the #1 seed from JMU.

W&M can lose to Richmond, yet they both make the field at 8-3 and 9-3, respectively.


So, W&M and UR can still both make the field, but JMU's no longer the #1 seed in that case.

Yes, that scenario would be an absolute disaster for other at-large candidates. W&M would have everyone but Richmond fans rooting for them if that happened.

[RationalGriz]

Just a gut feeling, but I do not think Montana and Cal Poly get matched up in round 1.

[griz&beer]

Just a gut feeling, but I do not think Montana and Cal Poly get matched up in round 1.

That would be stupid, mix it up.

[Rob Iola]

No Dayton? Especially after their scintillating OT win over powerhouse Butler?


(insert duck n' cover smilie)...

[Grizzaholic]

That would be stupid, mix it up.

It is not STUPID. I just do not think teams that played in the regular season should be matched up again in the first round in the post season. I enjoy watching the Griz play different teams each and every year. I wish this geographical seeding BS would just stop. Try a little to keep teams close, don't send CP to New Hampshire or something like. It is possible but that would be expecting too much from the selection commitee.

[WOCO]

Actually, it depends on travel (I'm not sure how each of those teams would travel to the other). More than one person on here has said that once a team has to fly, it's of very little consequence how far away they are.

It Makes a big differenct if you are flying accross the country and timezones.

[WOCO]

Actually, it depends on travel (I'm not sure how each of those teams would travel to the other). More than one person on here has said that once a team has to fly, it's of very little consequence how far away they are.


It is not STUPID. I just do not think teams that played in the regular season should be matched up again in the first round in the post season. I enjoy watching the Griz play different teams each and every year. I wish this geographical seeding BS would just stop. Try a little to keep teams close, don't send CP to New Hampshire or something like. It is possible but that would be expecting too much from the selection commitee.


Does that mean that montana wouldn't have a problem coming to Wofford Elon or App in the first round.

[Rob Iola]

JMU keeping the number 1 seed AND W&M and UR both making the field are mutually exclusive.
...
If W&M beats UR, they're in over UR who would fall to 8-4.
If UR beats W&M, they're in over W&M who would fall to 7-4.
...
If either Richmond or W&M end up with 4 losses they're out. W&M ends with JMU and a motivated Richmond team - I don't think W&M gets their needed win.

Elsewhere in the CAA, UNH finishes with a dangerous/disgruntled UMass and a motivated Maine. Maine finishes with Rhody and a motivated UNH. A Maine win over UNH might keep both teams home, even with 3 losses each. Especially with the potential for 4 Socon teams with 3 losses (or less), plus a smattering of "weak" 1 and 2 loss teams...

In the Socon Furman can end with 3 losses if they beat GSU and Wofford - wouldn't bet against them. Elon can end with 3 losses if they beat either ASU or a motivated Liberty team.

Interestingly, Wofford ends with a tough and definitely motivated Samford and a motivated Furman. They could end up with 4 losses and are out. (I suppose it could be argued that ASU could lose to both Elon and, shockingly, WCU - but even then I'd guess they're the only 4 loss team the committee would invite)...

I'm guessing that:
W&M ends with 4 losses and is out;
Richmond ends with 3 losses and is in;
UNH ends with 2 or 3 losses and is in;
Maine ends with 4 losses and is out;
Furman ends with 4 losses and is out;
Wofford ends with 2 losses and is in;
Elon ends with 3 losses and is in.

So basically replace W&M with Elon...

[mcveyrl]

It Makes a big differenct if you are flying accross the country and timezones.

I understand that, but I meant from a financial standpoint, I don't think the committee is concerned about distance as much when the team is in the air.

[Rob Iola]

Does the committee appreciate irony? If Montana doesn't get a seed could they be sent to Wofford?

[Grizzaholic]

Does that mean that montana wouldn't have a problem coming to Wofford Elon or App in the first round.

Not Elon, but Wofford or App St., yeah. If Montana does not get a seed and the commitee thinks that Montana should play App St. in the first round cool stuff. You will not hear one bad thing out of me. If Montana wins or loses I will not blame it on poor seeding.


EDIT: Check that, I will be upset that I didn't get to partake in the tailgate food and beverage that weekend.

[ElonPride]

Well, yes, but UNH and Maine could put up a similar record in a tougher conference, which would probably give them the edge.

Similar record, in a tougher conference, but with near identical schedule strengths.....xeyebrowx

[Go Apps]

I think your pairings are nothing short of Bizarre.

Take a look at last year as a reminder?

N.Iowa#1
N. Hampshire

Delaware
Delaware St

S. Ill #4
E. Ill

UMass
Fordham


ASU
JMU

McNeese St #2
E. Wash

Montana #3
Wofford

EKU
Richmond

[uofmman1122]

Unless Montana loses its next two games, we're more than likely going to get at least a first-round home game. If we travel to ASU, it won't be in the first round, and if we travel to Wofford, they're going to need to get a seed. xnodx

[TheValleyRaider]

I think your pairings are nothing short of Bizarre.

Take a look at last year as a reminder?

N.Iowa#1
N. Hampshire

Delaware
Delaware St

S. Ill #4
E. Ill

UMass
Fordham


ASU
JMU

McNeese St #2
E. Wash

Montana #3
Wofford

EKU
Richmond

What's so weird about them relative to last year? xconfusedx

I'm all ears xnodx

[PaladinFan]

As a Furman fan I'm going to have a hard time watching Colgate go.

[crusader11]

Colgate ain't goin baby.

[19Duke97]

Similar record, in a tougher conference, but with near identical schedule strengths.....xeyebrowx

It's a very good question, and I wish we could see it at a neutral site. I think UHN v Elon would be a very very good game.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Does the committee appreciate irony? If Montana doesn't get a seed could they be sent to Wofford?

If Montana and Wofford aren't seeded then Wofford comes to Missoula again. We get the home game due to the bid package. The only way we wouldn't have a home game is if we play a seeded team in the first round and I doubt that will happen even if we lost the next two games.

[TheValleyRaider]

Colgate ain't goin baby.

Big talk from a team that hasn't won in Hamilton since 2000.... xreadx xwhistlex

[crusader11]

Big talk from a team that hasn't won in Hamilton since 2000.... xreadx xwhistlex

Going by your lackluster performance against Lehigh last weekend, a team we beat fairly handily, why shouldn't I be confident? Stop the run and stop Colgate. Obviously, that is much easier said than done, but you can bet there will be 7 in the box on virtually every play. And even while Simonds is an outstanding receiver, I think our entire secondary can handle one guy. Plus, the fact you run on about 75% of the plays, I think we will do alright, considering we have the best run D in the league.

[TheValleyRaider]

Going by your lackluster performance against Lehigh last weekend, a team we beat fairly handily, why shouldn't I be confident? Stop the run and stop Colgate. Obviously, that is much easier said than done, but you can bet there will be 7 in the box on virtually every play. And even while Simonds is an outstanding receiver, I think our entire secondary can handle one guy. Plus, the fact you run on about 75% of the plays, I think we will do alright, considering we have the best run D in the league.

You also have yet to face the 2 best run teams in the PL xcoolx

But we can continue this discussion Saturday night. You've got business to take care of first xrulesx xsmiley_wix

[crusader11]

You also have yet to face the 2 best run teams in the PL xcoolx

But we can continue this discussion Saturday night. You've got business to take care of first xrulesx xsmiley_wix

Very valid points on both accounts. To be continued...

[RazorEdge19]

If Montana and Wofford aren't seeded then Wofford comes to Missoula again. We get the home game due to the bid package. The only way we wouldn't have a home game is if we play a seeded team in the first round and I doubt that will happen even if we lost the next two games.

Would the committee seriously consider having the same first round game as last year? I would think they wouldn't want to knock either team out again in the first round, or send the same team across the nation two years in a row.

[gbhmt]

Would the committee seriously consider having the same first round game as last year? I would think they wouldn't want to knock either team out again in the first round, or send the same team across the nation two years in a row.

I think he was just saying that if for some reason they did pair them again, Wofford would likely be the team traveling. I seriously doubt it will happen anyhow.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I think he was just saying that if for some reason they did pair them again, Wofford would likely be the team traveling. I seriously doubt it will happen anyhow.

Spot on on both counts. The committee does throw a surprise or two in every year though.

[ChubbyCherub]

no way a meac team gets a home game in the playoffs, and no way do they seed two teams from the same conference (JMU & VU/MU WebSt) both of those are ludicrous thoughts. I dont think UNI gets a seed if SIU wins out they will do something crazy like weber st and CP to keep the seeds in different regions. The great thing about this system is that all the best teams get to play it out and really decide who is best on the feild. The teams wount worry about seeds, they just worry about winning and makin it halfway through december

[Go Apps]

Sorry I meant to put this in another post -:((

[gr8ness97]

no way a meac team gets a home game in the playoffs

Why not? SC State draws pretty well in their home games...

[jlcharles]

no way a meac team gets a home game in the playoffs, and no way do they seed two teams from the same conference (JMU & VU/MU WebSt) both of those are ludicrous thoughts. I dont think UNI gets a seed if SIU wins out they will do something crazy like weber st and CP to keep the seeds in different regions. The great thing about this system is that all the best teams get to play it out and really decide who is best on the feild. The teams wount worry about seeds, they just worry about winning and makin it halfway through december

If the MEAC team outbids their opponent, they get a home game, pure and simple. Of course, the committee could pair them with a seed and guarantee they don't.

As for the seeds, the committee should give them to the most deserving, paying no heed to conferences. Whether they do or not, that's another story. But having two seeds from the same conference is not "ludicrous" as you say. The most deserving teams get the seeds and if they happen to play in the same conference, so be it.

In fact, this is from Bruce Dowd's interview with the selection committee head:

Question #3: I have heard many people say that the committee would resist putting two or three teams from the same conference in the top four seeds. So I asked John this question point blank and got a very direct answer; “It would be whatever the top four may be with no relevance to whatever conference they may be from.” So, end of that myth.

[Houndawg]

Last year UNI and SIU were seeded.

[Rob Iola]

Last year UNI and SIU were seeded.
Yes they were.

[Houndawg]

I think the MVC winner deserves a seed before a second team from another conference, same for Big Sky.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

As of today, 1-3 should be clear:

JMU
App St
Weber St

#4 is where things get interesting. If Cal Poly runs the board (yeah right!), then they would jump up to #3 or even #2 with a win over Wisconsin.

Otherwise, it's between Villanova, UNI and Montana for #4, and each have good arguments. It will be interesting to see what the SC does if all the teams win out.