Who should get the 3/4 seeds?

[Khan4Cats]

A couple other threads have discussions on who should get seeds. My opinion is that James Madison and Appalachian State are likely headed to the 1 and 2 seeds provided they win out. Who should get the other two seeds.

My argument is for Montana and UNI.

Weber State's best win is Montana. Montana's best win is Cal-Poly. After that they line up in order of conference teams for best wins, but Montana's wins over SUU and UC-Davis will factor in better than Weber's 2 sub D-I wins. Weber has 2 losses to Montana's 1. Edge MONTANA.

UNI likewise has no bad losses. They have beaten everyone in conference except SIU (a 3 point road loss). The MVFC matches up well with the Big Sky, slightly better if you compare them team to team. In addition UNI, if they win out, will have 2 FCS wins in non-conference play (including one on the road) and 1 sub D-I win over transitional South Dakota.

I also think Villanova could make an argument as could Elon (if they win out) and Cal-Poly would certainly jump in if they win out (and 2 FBS wins might even vault them to a 2 seed).

I think it will be Montana at 3 and UNI with the 4.

[gbhmt]

You should make a poll for this thread.

[blur2005]

A couple other threads have discussions on who should get seeds. My opinion is that James Madison and Appalachian State are likely headed to the 1 and 2 seeds provided they win out. Who should get the other two seeds.

My argument is for Montana and UNI.

Weber State's best win is Montana. Montana's best win is Cal-Poly. After that they line up in order of conference teams for best wins, but Montana's wins over SUU and UC-Davis will factor in better than Weber's 2 sub D-I wins. Weber has 2 losses to Montana's 1. Edge MONTANA.

UNI likewise has no bad losses. They have beaten everyone in conference except SIU (a 3 point road loss). The MVFC matches up well with the Big Sky, slightly better if you compare them team to team. In addition UNI, if they win out, will have 2 FCS wins in non-conference play (including one on the road) and 1 sub D-I win over transitional South Dakota.

I also think Villanova could make an argument as could Elon (if they win out) and Cal-Poly would certainly jump in if they win out (and 2 FBS wins might even vault them to a 2 seed).

I think it will be Montana at 3 and UNI with the 4.
If Weber State wins out, it will likely garner the third seed.

[jmuroller]

Villanova has lost to a Big East team and to the #1 team on the last play of the game. I don't see how they aren't at least the #4 seed. A little CAA bias obviously

[dbackjon]

Weber and Montana for two of the top seeds, if they win out.

Top to bottom, the Big Sky is rated higher than the MVFC.

[ValleyChamp]

If UNI wins out, they will be 10-2 and ranked in the top 3. The Panthers WILL be seeded if they win out. Montana will get the other seed. 11-1 deserves a seed.

[Ronbo]

I actually like the #4 seed. I'd much rather go to JMU than App. State if we were to advance. xnodx

[Appattk]

A couple other threads have discussions on who should get seeds. My opinion is that James Madison and Appalachian State are likely headed to the 1 and 2 seeds provided they win out. Who should get the other two seeds.

My argument is for Montana and UNI.

Weber State's best win is Montana. Montana's best win is Cal-Poly. After that they line up in order of conference teams for best wins, but Montana's wins over SUU and UC-Davis will factor in better than Weber's 2 sub D-I wins. Weber has 2 losses to Montana's 1. Edge MONTANA.

UNI likewise has no bad losses. They have beaten everyone in conference except SIU (a 3 point road loss). The MVFC matches up well with the Big Sky, slightly better if you compare them team to team. In addition UNI, if they win out, will have 2 FCS wins in non-conference play (including one on the road) and 1 sub D-I win over transitional South Dakota.

I also think Villanova could make an argument as could Elon (if they win out) and Cal-Poly would certainly jump in if they win out (and 2 FBS wins might even vault them to a 2 seed).

I think it will be Montana at 3 and UNI with the 4.


Based on GPI & Sag Ratings I can see the 3 seed going to Richmond & the 4 Seed going to Montana....

UNI has a horrible Sag rating..

The only argument I could see is Villinova vs. Richmond

[JmuSkinsfan]

Weber and Montana for two of the top seeds, if they win out.

Top to bottom, the Big Sky is rated higher than the MVFC.

Top to bottom, the CAA and SOCON are rated higher than both the MVC and Big Sky. I don't think it would be fair for the Big Sky to get 2 seeds.

#1: JMU
#2: ASU

At this point those two are locks if they win out.

#3: Weber State (if they win the Big Sky no doubt about it)

#4: Villanova

I understand the argument for Montana, but Villanova has the better SOS and more impressive wins. Wofford would have been another option had they played closer with ASU ... that blowout ruled them out I think. No way Elon gets a seed. And they won't win out cause they won't beat ASU. UNI will likely get the #4 if they win out. We shall see I guess, but if you're talking about most deserving I think 'Nova deserves it, though I doubt they'll get it.

[Ronbo]

Go back and look at the History of the playoffs. How many 11-1 teams can you find that didn't get seeds?

I think you won't find any unless they came from the MEAC or someplace like that.

[gbhmt]

Go back and look at the History of the playoffs. How many 11-1 teams can you find that didn't get seeds?

I think you won't find any unless they came from the MEAC or someplace like that.

Yeah as good as CAA and SoCon are, they're not gonna get more than one seed each.

[blur2005]

Go back and look at the History of the playoffs. How many 11-1 teams can you find that didn't get seeds?

I think you won't find any unless they came from the MEAC or someplace like that.
Sure but usually the 11-1 team's loss is to a FBS team. Weber State is going to win the Big Sky and beat Montana in the process, telling me that if any team from that conference is going to get a seed, it's Weber. I think Villanova should definitely be in the discussion for the fourth seed if the Wildcats win out.

[Edge316007]

If Weber State and Montana win out, I like them to get the 3rd and 4th seeds respectively. Villanova can certainly make a case, for the 4th, but I can't justify leaving out an 11-1 Montana team.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

I think Weber and Villanova should get the 3rd and 4th seeds. Weber based on their head-to-head win over Montana. Villanova over the MVC teams because of their superior computer rating.

[Pantherpower]

If they win out, it will be Montana at 3 and UNI at 4, IMO.

[Ronbo]

Montana had a bad day in the driving rain in Ogden. 5 turnovers. Even as bad a day as we had that day the stats for the game were dead even. The team is young and wasn't playing near as good then as we are now. We play Weber this Saturday and we'd beat them by 17 points. xlolx xnodx xnodx

[gbhmt]

Montana had a bad day in the driving rain in Ogden. 5 turnovers. Even as bad a day as we had that day the stats for the game were dead even. The team is young and wasn't playing near as good then as we are now. We play Weber this Saturday and we'd beat them by 17 points. xlolx xnodx xnodx

I think we'd win. 17's a little optimistic though. Montana's a better team now but I just don't know if the committee could stand to put someone in that lost the head-to-head.

[slostang]

If Cal Poly made a 27 yard FG in the second week of the season we would be talking a possible 2 or 3 seed. As it is we are probably looking at a road playoff game at Weber State or Montana.

[gbhmt]

If Cal Poly made a 27 yard FG in the second week of the season we would be talking a possible 2 or 3 seed. As it is we are probably looking at a road playoff game at Weber State or Montana.

If the leading point scorer in FCS history made a 40-something short yard field goal in the playoffs last year, UM could have made a championship run.

But let's not dwell on coulda woulda shoulda please.

[Khan4Cats]

Top to bottom, the Big Sky is rated higher than the MVFC.

I keep seeing the computer models say that but I keep asking why? What has the Big Sky done? They have 4 wins non-conference versus FCS schools, 4. As a conference. 3 of those by Montana. The MVFC has 8. Still not great, but twice that of the Big Sky. Big Sky teams have combined for 33 D-I wins this year, the MVFC have 36.

Let's match teams, start at the bottom:

Cellar dwellars: Indiana State vs Idaho State neither conference should be proud of either
Next tier: Youngstown State, Illinois State and Missouri State vs Northern Colorado, Portland State and Sacramento State. Sorry, but the MVFC's group is better.
Middle tier: North Dakota State and Western Illinois vs Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona. Would be interesting match-ups, we'd see just how good NAU's run defense is against Tyler Roehl and Herb Donaldson. EVEN.
Third place: Well the Big Sky has a team that fits there right now in Montana State, The Valley doesn't really have one since their third team is still in the running for an at-large.
Top two (three): UNI, SDSU, and SIU vs Weber State and Montana. Again interesting match-ups, but can't say that any clearly jump out over the others. With the NCAA, we may get our chance to see just how they match up though.

Sorry, not buying what the computer models say. Neither conference is near the CAA or SOCON this year, but there is no real gap between the two either.

[Ronbo]

If Cal Poly made a 27 yard FG in the second week of the season we would be talking a possible 2 or 3 seed. As it is we are probably looking at a road playoff game at Weber State or Montana.

They call it "a game of inches" don't you know.xnodx

[Appinator]

Been following FCS for a long time, but off the top of my head, I can't remember a time when a conference non-champion got a seed over their respective champ.

Any examples out there?

It would be pretty obvious then if a Big Sky team was to get the nod, it would go to Weber if they won out. No doubt Montana would get a home game though.

[Edge316007]

Why does everyone assume Cal Poly is going to Montana or Weber St.? They're 1350 miles from Montana and 875 miles from Weber St. If they're gonna fly, it doesn't matter how far.

[gbhmt]

Why does everyone assume Cal Poly is going to Montana or Weber St.? They're 1350 miles from Montana and 875 miles from Weber St. If they're gonna fly, it doesn't matter how far.

I think it's based on previous years. We played Cal Poly twice in one season a few years ago.

[Khan4Cats]

Been following FCS for a long time, but off the top of my head, I can't remember a time when a conference non-champion got a seed over their respective champ.

Any examples out there?

It would be pretty obvious then if a Big Sky team was to get the nod, it would go to Weber if they won out. No doubt Montana would get a home game though.

I keep throwing this out:

2005. Texas State got the 4 seed. Auto-bid Nicholl's State got sent on the road. Nicholls won the head to head. It has happened.

[appstate38]

Well lets say all involved win out. Then I believe Montana will get a seed. 3 or 4, not really sure but probably a 3 because for one thing they would be 11-1 and another they always draw well at home and the potential for more revenue is always a plus especially when you consider that JMU and App will also be seeded which means even more cash. The possiblity for those 3 schools to have home games up to the semi finals would be a huge cash deal for the NCAA. 4 seed is a toss up between UNI, Weber and Cal Poly in my book.

[Appinator]

I keep throwing this out:

2005. Texas State got the 4 seed. Auto-bid Nicholl's State got sent on the road. Nicholls won the head to head. It has happened.

But weren't they co-champs?

[gbhmt]

Well lets say all involved win out. Then I believe Montana will get a seed. 3 or 4, not really sure but probably a 3 because for one thing they would be 11-1 and another they always draw well at home and the potential for more revenue is always a plus especially when you consider that JMU and App will also be seeded which means even more cash. The possiblity for those 3 schools to have home games up to the semi finals would be a huge cash deal for the NCAA. 4 seed is a toss up between UNI, Weber and Cal Poly in my book.

I don't think Poly will be in consideration unless they somehow managed to win out. I don't see it happening.

[Ronbo]

Well lets say all involved win out. Then I believe Montana will get a seed. 3 or 4, not really sure but probably a 3 because for one thing they would be 11-1 and another they always draw well at home and the potential for more revenue is always a plus especially when you consider that JMU and App will also be seeded which means even more cash. The possiblity for those 3 schools to have home games up to the semi finals would be a huge cash deal for the NCAA. 4 seed is a toss up between UNI, Weber and Cal Poly in my book.

Now this guy thinks things out! Smartest post on this seeding subject yet. Anyone who thinks the NCAA doesn't influence the committee is wrong.xrulesx

[clenz]

But weren't they co-champs?
That is what would happen if SIU and UNI would win out. They would be co-champs with SIU getting the auto.

[Khan4Cats]

But weren't they co-champs?

They were co-champs, but Nicholls had the auto-bid.

You didn't specify co-champs. That might be a factor, but I don't think it will be that big of a factor. Same thing with SIU-UNI this year, if SIU wins out. They will be co-champs, but SIU gets the auto.

[Appinator]

I keep throwing this out:

2005. Texas State got the 4 seed. Auto-bid Nicholl's State got sent on the road. Nicholls won the head to head. It has happened.

Just looked it up, and TSSM was the co-champs along with NSU. Unless there is another example of where a non-champ leapfrogs a conference champion, I don't see where a Montana seeding argument has any historical backing.

If Weber wins the Big Sky outright, they should get the seed. No knock on Montana, that's just how it should go. No doubt they will still get an opening round play-off game though.

[Khan4Cats]

Well lets say all involved win out. Then I believe Montana will get a seed. 3 or 4, not really sure but probably a 3 because for one thing they would be 11-1 and another they always draw well at home and the potential for more revenue is always a plus especially when you consider that JMU and App will also be seeded which means even more cash. The possiblity for those 3 schools to have home games up to the semi finals would be a huge cash deal for the NCAA. 4 seed is a toss up between UNI, Weber and Cal Poly in my book.

If all win out. That means Cal-Poly with a second FBS win (over Wisconsin). Definitely would earn them the 3 seed. Otherwise I agree with you, and think Villanova slides into that equation as well.

[RabidRabbit]

If Cal Poly made a 27 yard FG in the second week of the season we would be talking a possible 2 or 3 seed. As it is we are probably looking at a road playoff game at Weber State or Montana.

And if Poly surprises Badgers, I think they would still get a seed.

[I Bleed Purple]

Has a Big Sky team ever run the table in conference and not received a seed? I asked this in another thread and never got a reply to this.

[skinny_uncle]

They were co-champs, but Nicholls had the auto-bid.

You didn't specify co-champs. That might be a factor, but I don't think it will be that big of a factor. Same thing with SIU-UNI this year, if SIU wins out. They will be co-champs, but SIU gets the auto.
So you think even though SIU gets the autobid, UNI has a better shot at a seed?
xeyebrowx

[T-Dog]

I'd say Weber gets the #3 and Villanova gets the #4 (assuming they win out). Yeah it sucks for Montana, but I don't think the Big Sky will get two seeded teams.

[Houndawg]

That is what would happen if SIU and UNI would win out. They would be co-champs with SIU getting the auto.

And the head-to-head.

[unipnthr]

Other than money, what gives Montana an edge for the seed over Weber State?

Admittedly, I'm not as familiar with FCS as most on this board. However, looking at the schedules I see a Weber State team that has won every game they were "supposed" to win this year (assuming they win out). As much as I hate to say it, an FCS is not "supposed" to beat an FBS team.

I also see a Montana team that, while losing fewer games than Weber State, has simply not won every FCS game this year - making it even worse, the loss was head-to-head.

Other than money, I simply do not see how the Griz trump the Wildcats for a seed.

[ValleyChamp]

So you think even though SIU gets the autobid, UNI has a better shot at a seed?
xeyebrowx

I think that is very likely.

[Chi Panther]

Montana had a bad day in the driving rain in Ogden. 5 turnovers. Even as bad a day as we had that day the stats for the game were dead even. The team is young and wasn't playing near as good then as we are now. We play Weber this Saturday and we'd beat them by 17 points. xlolx xnodx xnodx

Were you describing the UNI at SIU game?

[Native]

If UNI wins out, they will be 10-2 and ranked in the top 3. The Panthers WILL be seeded if they win out. Montana will get the other seed. 11-1 deserves a seed.

Ranked in the top three by whom? UNI is still at 15th this week in the Massey rating, one of the five used in the GPI version considered by the selection committee this year. MV is perhaps the 6th strongest conference in the FCS, behind CAA, SOCON, BSC, Great West and Southland.

[siuham]

Any computer system that takes FBS games into account is going to rank Weber higher and in turn Montana and the whole BSC. Also remember that Sagarin doesn't take into account lower than D-I games (or so I've heard?) of which Weber had two. Take those into account and Weber is far lower than UNI, and Montana would lose a bit of their edge.

Anyway, my prediction of UNI/Montana for #3 and #4 stands, and I'll stick to it.

[tingly]

From Sagarin's rating page: "In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 245 [Division I] TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations"

[Native]

Any computer system that takes FBS games into account is going to rank Weber higher and in turn Montana and the whole BSC. Also remember that Sagarin doesn't take into account lower than D-I games (or so I've heard?) of which Weber had two. Take those into account and Weber is far lower than UNI, and Montana would lose a bit of their edge.

Anyway, my prediction of UNI/Montana for #3 and #4 stands, and I'll stick to it.

Not using Sagarin. I heard all the whining xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx and switched to Massey, which is one of the five computer ratings specifically listed in the 2008 playoff handbook and considered by the committee. xreadx

Opinions are like ... uh... anyway, everyone has an opinion. xeyebrowx

There are a hundred dedicated homers on this site who are smart enough to take into account the favorite ten or twelve favorite factors which support their desired conclusions, but are afraid of sophomore statistics? I don't buy it. xsmhx

Without an objective component that considers relevant data, without bias or emotion, all we are is a bunch of opinionated homers. I prefer to be at least an opinionated homer with statistics and a valid argument. xcoolx

I know there are plenty of fans and former players on this board smarter than that, xnodx with enough initiative, wit, and intellectual integrity to consider more than a handful of cherry picked data points to support their conclusions. xthumbsupx

So what objective computer ratings do YOU take into consideration, Ham? xrolleyesx

[crunifan]

Ranked in the top three by whom? UNI is still at 15th this week in the Massey rating, one of the five used in the GPI version considered by the selection committee this year. MV is perhaps the 6th strongest conference in the FCS, behind CAA, SOCON, BSC, Great West and Southland.

Well, if you believe those computer rankings so much and not history on the strength of the MVC, then by all means, please visit us in the UNI-Dome. Because according to you, we are the 15th best team in the country and you should be able to easily handle us.

[siuham]

Not using Sagarin. I heard all the whining xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx and switched to Massey, which is one of the five computer ratings specifically listed in the 2008 playoff handbook and considered by the committee. xreadx

Opinions are like ... uh... anyway, everyone has an opinion. xeyebrowx

There are a hundred dedicated homers on this site who are smart enough to take into account the favorite ten or twelve favorite factors which support their desired conclusions, but are afraid of sophomore statistics? I don't buy it. xsmhx

Without an objective component that considers relevant data, without bias or emotion, all we are is a bunch of opinionated homers. I prefer to be at least an opinionated homer with statistics and a valid argument. xcoolx

I know there are plenty of fans and former players on this board smarter than that, xnodx with enough initiative, wit, and intellectual integrity to consider more than a handful of cherry picked data points to support their conclusions. xthumbsupx

So what objective computer ratings do YOU take into consideration, Ham? xrolleyesx

Talk all the smack you want and call me a homer. I'm calling for my own team to not get a seed, so you pretty much whiffed on that one.

I said my prediction. We'll see in two weeks.

[uofmman1122]

UNI doesn't deserve a seed, and neither does SIU, in my opinion.

I think it comes down to Montana, Villanova, Weber State, and Cal Poly.

Unless one of those four lose, they will be the ones vying for the #3 and #4 seeds. xrulesx

(And if JMU or ASU lose, it could get really crazy. xlolx)

[coover]

Why does everyone assume Cal Poly is going to Montana or Weber St.? They're 1350 miles from Montana and 875 miles from Weber St. If they're gonna fly, it doesn't matter how far.

It's based on perception of those that make the decisions. East is east and west is west,

How about Wofford at Poly? That should have some interest on the east coast. And some folks in the east might even find out where the heck San Luis Obispo is actually located. Don't expect Hollywood or Disneyland. Expect heaven.

[purplepeopleeaterv2]

UNI doesn't deserve a seed, and neither does SIU, in my opinion.

I think it comes down to Montana, Villanova, Weber State, and Cal Poly.

Unless one of those four lose, they will be the ones vying for the #3 and #4 seeds. xrulesx

(And if JMU or ASU lose, it could get really crazy. xlolx)

I agree with you xpeacex

[4th and What?]

Unless Cal Poly wins out, I don't see them getting a seed. With their loss to UM and Davis losing to Sac State last week the Great West just haven't shown the conference strength to put Cal Poly over UM/Weber.

The Weber St/Montana arguement can be solved with giving both a seed. In that case, Montana would get the #3 and Weber St the #4 (or is that just because I would rather see Weber St come to Harrisonburg than Montana?)

While I think Villanova deserves a seed, they've been getting the shaft all season, why stop now. Villanova's best chance for a seed would lie in the committee wanted to throw a bone to the CAA for their improvement overall, but as long as Villanova remains ranked lower than they deserve, no seed for them.

Personally, I am happy with Villanova not getting a seed. The last thing I would want is Villanova to get a seed other people can argue against and then have them not show up in the playoffs. And I don't think even in the playoffs, Villanova fans would show up to a home game.

As far as UNI/SIU? No shot. Don't blame us, blame the computer rankings.

And Richmond/Elon? No shot either. Richmond needs to beat W&M and Elon needs to beat Liberty just to get into the playoffs, they can't expect a seed.

[Houndawg]

Ranked in the top three by whom? UNI is still at 15th this week in the Massey rating, one of the five used in the GPI version considered by the selection committee this year. MV is perhaps the 6th strongest conference in the FCS, behind CAA, SOCON, BSC, Great West and Southland.


xlolx Stop it man, you're killin' me.

[uofmman1122]

xlolx Stop it man, you're killin' me.Agreed.

The MVC may be a little down from last year, but it's definitely better than the Great West and the Southland.

[ChickenMan]

If a seed comes down to Villanova or Montana.. the finances favor Montana.. but the on the field results favor Villanova.

Montana:
best win.. +2 over #3 Cal Poly
loss.. -17 to #9 Weber St

Villanova:
best wins.. +7 over #7 Richmond.. +8 over #8 UNH.. +14 over #14 W&M
losses.. at West Virginia and last play Hail Mary to #1 JMU

it's pretty clear that the on the field results favor Nova getting a seed over Montana.. but there is always the financial factor and UM wins that one by a huge margin.

[Houndawg]

Agreed.

The MVC may be a little down from last year, but it's definitely better than the Great West and the Southland.


And every bit as good as the Big Sky, even in this down year.xnodx

[unigriff]

Play at Neutral sites...the MVC would break even if not outright beat the Big Sky.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Not using Sagarin. I heard all the whining xbawlingx xbawlingx xbawlingx and switched to Massey, which is one of the five computer ratings specifically listed in the 2008 playoff handbook and considered by the committee. xreadx

Opinions are like ... uh... anyway, everyone has an opinion. xeyebrowx

There are a hundred dedicated homers on this site who are smart enough to take into account the favorite ten or twelve favorite factors which support their desired conclusions, but are afraid of sophomore statistics? I don't buy it. xsmhx

Without an objective component that considers relevant data, without bias or emotion, all we are is a bunch of opinionated homers. I prefer to be at least an opinionated homer with statistics and a valid argument. xcoolx

I know there are plenty of fans and former players on this board smarter than that, xnodx with enough initiative, wit, and intellectual integrity to consider more than a handful of cherry picked data points to support their conclusions. xthumbsupx

So what objective computer ratings do YOU take into consideration, Ham? xrolleyesx

Of course you switched to massey because that one has you at 3 and Montana at 2. While Sagarin has you at 6. So how is that not being a homer? UNI was actually 10th in the Massey.

I am not convinced that if we win out we should get a seed, but I could see it happening. For the 3/4 I personally think it should be Villanova at 3 and Weber at 4.

[achrist70]

I think that UNI has to at least get a look for a seed, they should be entering the playoffs winning 8 in a row.

[Chi Panther]

Well, I'm glad that AGS Poll, Sportsnetwork and the Coach's disagree with many in this thread.....xthumbsupx xeekx

[Grabholdofyosef]

If Nova wins out, I think they deserve the #3 based on their wins over NH, Richmond and W&M and how well they played against JMU. The loss againt WVU should not be held aginst them.

If Weber St wins out, it would be hard not to give them the #4 with their only two losses being to FBS schools, and the big win over Montana and undefeated in the Big Sky. if you remove the sub d1 wins they only have 8 overall, so it makes me wonder a little.

Montana has been impressive but I think it would be tough to give a seed to them over an undefeated team from their same conference who beat them head to head.

UNI's resume looks strong, but I dont think it passes the other three.

It wouldnt surprise me if Montana and UNI do better in the playoffs than Weber, but for seeding purposes I think resume should be the deciding factor.

[19Duke97]

Villanova's season is reminding me a lot of JMU's from 2006. If we take that history into account, Villanova will be rewarded by being sent to Appy State for all their hard work, and inferior teams will get seeds and home games. xlolx xrolleyesx

[DOME]

All in all a seed would be nice but I've seen UNI win playoff games on the road before. Besides we've still got two more weeks and a lot of 'What if' scenarios.

[jstclmet]

Top to bottom, the CAA and SOCON are rated higher than both the MVC and Big Sky. I don't think it would be fair for the Big Sky to get 2 seeds.

#1: JMU
#2: ASU

At this point those two are locks if they win out.

#3: Weber State (if they win the Big Sky no doubt about it)

#4: Villanova

I understand the argument for Montana, but Villanova has the better SOS and more impressive wins. Wofford would have been another option had they played closer with ASU ... that blowout ruled them out I think. No way Elon gets a seed. And they won't win out cause they won't beat ASU. UNI will likely get the #4 if they win out. We shall see I guess, but if you're talking about most deserving I think 'Nova deserves it, though I doubt they'll get it.

I think you mean;

#1 Jmu
#4 Weber St (Montana or UNI)

#2 ASU
#3 Nova

Whether Nova is #3 or not, they belong in the same half of the bracket as ASU (although, not in the 1st Rd). JMU has played and beaten both of these highly ranked teams and should not have to face them until the NC game should they get there. The only CAA team, JMU should see prior to the NC game would be UNH. The UR/W&M winner would also belong in the ASU half of the brackett, and be potentially ASU's 2nd round opponent.

Basically, after SCST??, ASU would have to run the CAA gauntlet again.

#1 JMU
#16 Elon

#8
#9

#5 UNI
#12 UNH

#4 Weber St.
#13

#3 Nova
#14 Colgate

#6 Montana
#11 Cal Poly

#7
#10 UR/W&m

#15 SC ST.
#2 ASU

Not real sure about that Mont/CP match up (6/11 vs 8/9). You guys can complete it for me. Gotta meeting to go to.

[james_lawfirm]

I actually like the #4 seed. I'd much rather go to JMU than App. State if we were to advance. xnodx



No, no, no. Ronbo - free beer to all Montana fans in Boone! OK, maybe not if there's a bunch of you.

[GrizFamily]

No, no, no. Ronbo - free beer to all Montana fans in Boone! OK, maybe not if there's a bunch of you.


You might be surprised at how many of us show up.

[Pantherpower]

Imo, UNI will get the 4 seed if we win out. The coach's poll and TSN poll reflect where we're at.

[TCisMYhero]

UNI- 2 home games in the playoffs last year, 2 sell-outs. If we're talking butts in seats, it's tough to beat a team that batted 1.000 in sell-outs in the previous year's playoffs. I'm not sayin... I'm just sayin.....

[Syntax Error]

If the leading point scorer in FCS history made a 40-something short yard field goal in the playoffs last year, UM could have made a championship run. But let's not dwell on coulda woulda shoulda please.Brian Westbrook was trying a field goal for Montana last year???? xconfusedx

[Syntax Error]

Ranked in the top three by whom? UNI is still at 15th this week in the Massey rating, one of the five used in the GPI version considered by the selection committee this year.Native, the GPI had UNI at #8 last week and all three polls have them at #4 this week. The five computer ratings are used only for the "bridge" AQ. The GPI is for general use along with the polls.

[Native]

Native, the GPI had UNI at #8 last week and all three polls have them at #4 this week. The five computer ratings are used only for the "bridge" AQ. The GPI is for general use along with the polls.

Wow! I saw UNI's jump this afternoon in the coaches and sportswriters' polls! Congrats to UNI for the ranking. xthumbsupx

I wonder which has had greater predictive validity this season, the polls, or the computers? xeyebrowx

Guess we'll just have to play 'em on the field - maybe in UNI's dome - 'cause those two polls are just wrong! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Big Al]

I, for one, am rooting for a WSU/UNI final in Chattanooga.

I can't lose either way!

[wideright82]

Brian Westbrook was trying a field goal for Montana last year???? xconfusedx

maybe he meant since the I-AA became the "subdivision formerly known as I-AA" xeyebrowx

[gbhmt]

maybe he meant since the I-AA became the "subdivision formerly known as I-AA" xeyebrowx

I meant most points for a kicker. Breaking the record set by the UM kicker before him.

[Syntax Error]

Brian Westbrook is the "leading point scorer in FCS history" (that includes I-AA).

[HensRock]

Go back and look at the History of the playoffs. How many 11-1 teams can you find that didn't get seeds?

I think you won't find any unless they came from the MEAC or someplace like that.


Go back and look at the History of the playoffs. How many At-Large teams can you find that got seeds while their AQ conference champ did not?

[Native]

All in all a seed would be nice but I've seen UNI win playoff games on the road before. Besides we've still got two more weeks and a lot of 'What if' scenarios.... On the road or in the Dome, where there's beer we find a home!

Well said! xthumbsupx

Especially the signature part! xsmiley_wix

[GrizFanStuckInUtah]

Go back and look at the History of the playoffs. How many At-Large teams can you find that got seeds while their AQ conference champ did not?

I can't be arsed to look that up, but it doesn't mean it couldn't nor shouldn't happen in some scenarios. There is a lot of football to be played before I am going to argue too much about this :) xreadx

[Native]

Montana had a bad day in the driving rain in Ogden. 5 turnovers. Even as bad a day as we had that day the stats for the game were dead even. The team is young and wasn't playing near as good then as we are now. We play Weber this Saturday and we'd beat them by 17 points. xlolx xnodx xnodx

Weber was so fortunate that the driving rain struck only the Grizzlies. xeyebrowx xrolleyesx

Montana has a great team, even a double great team, but Weber State is GREAT! GREAT! GREAT!xnodx xnodx xnodx

[SeattleGriz]

Weber was so fortunate that the driving rain struck only the Grizzlies. xeyebrowx xrolleyesx

Montana has a great team, even a double great team, but Weber State is GREAT! GREAT! GREAT!xnodx xnodx xnodx

Native created a slight breach of etiquette by skipping the triple great and going right for the throat, with the triple GREAT!

[malibudude]

Well, I'm glad that AGS Poll, Sportsnetwork and the Coach's disagree with many in this thread.....xthumbsupx xeekx

Right, so it's Poly then. All clear:)

[Native]

Native created a slight breach of etiquette by skipping the triple great and going right for the throat, with the triple GREAT!

Sorry. :o It's the only part of our fight song that I know. xrolleyesx

[SeattleGriz]

Sorry. :o It's the only part of our fight song that I know. xrolleyesx

No worries. Somewhat obscure quote from the movie A Christmas Story.

Flick skips the triple dare, and goes for the throat with the triple dog dare.

:D

[Native]

No worries. Somewhat obscure quote from the movie A Christmas Story.

Flick skips the triple dare, and goes for the throat with the triple dog dare.

:D

xreadx xreadx xreadx xthumbsupx

[coover]

Montana has a great team, even a double great team, but Weber State is GREAT! GREAT! GREAT!

Weber State is an excellent team, as is Montana .... but ...

Cal Poly is afraid of neither. Yes, the Griz beat the Mustangs, but it was evident on the field that Poly had the better team. And if Poly has to play Weber State, they will not go into the game expecting to lose. The Weber State coaching staff knows that Cal Poly is a touchdown or two better.

If Weber State and Montana wish to get beyond the first round of the playoffs, they better lobby the playoff selection committee to have Poly play somebody else.

[SeattleGriz]

Weber State is an excellent team, as is Montana .... but ...

Cal Poly is afraid of neither. Yes, the Griz beat the Mustangs, but it was evident on the field that Poly had the better team. And if Poly has to play Weber State, they will not go into the game expecting to lose. The Weber State coaching staff knows that Cal Poly is a touchdown or two better.

If Weber State and Montana wish to get beyond the first round of the playoffs, they better lobby the playoff selection committee to have Poly play somebody else.

Your offense may have been better for that game, but as far as I know, there are three phases football. Offense, defense and special teams. When put together, Montana won that game and was better.

[coover]

When put together, Montana won that game and was better.


Did you see the game? Yes, Montana won, and it was in SLO. Frankly, you'd think that should make them the better team. They were not and should not have won.

Cal Poly's offense was very good, their defense was terrible, and their kicking game was worse. Don't expect the problem areas to happen again. The inexperienced defense has improved (though they did break down against Southern Utah), and Poly now has an idea of what the Grizzly offense can do ... which, of course, is a considerable amount of damage. But remember, the Montana coaching staff had the opportunity to see the Mustangs, while no Mustang coach saw Montana until they were on the field in SLO.

I cannot guarantee the Mustang kicking team will improve over the Montana game, though they have been better recently (one of their kickers was conspiculously absent the 2nd half of the NCC game and may be injured), but I can guarantee that Montana will not be able to score as easily as they did early in September.

[Native]

Weber State is an excellent team, as is Montana .... but ...

Cal Poly is afraid of neither. Yes, the Griz beat the Mustangs, but it was evident on the field that Poly had the better team. And if Poly has to play Weber State, they will not go into the game expecting to lose. The Weber State coaching staff knows that Cal Poly is a touchdown or two better.

If Weber State and Montana wish to get beyond the first round of the playoffs, they better lobby the playoff selection committee to have Poly play somebody else.

Hey, Coover, Cal Poly is a GREAT team, xbowx but only one great, sorry. xnonox

Frankly, I would like to see all three teams play someone else in the first round, because all three would WIN. xnodx I Would hate to have to knock off such an outstanding team in the first round. xnonono2x

[coover]

Hey, Coover, Cal Poly is a GREAT team, xbowx but only one great, sorry. xnonox

Frankly, I would like to see all three teams play someone else in the first round, because all three would WIN. xnodx

Your analysis of the 3 western teams is very good and I absolutely agree that all three are among the top 8 FCS teams this year. So under normal circumstances, all three should open the playoffs at home and all three should win their first game.

Won't happen. The folks who determine playoff brackets will look at it as an East - West situation. In order to keep transportation costs as low as possible, they try to pair East with East and West with West. The most probable West teams are Poly, Montana, and Weber State. That means that two of those teams will probably meet. Poly has already played Montana, so, I suspect that Poly will play Weber State (sorry about that, Native :D ). Montana will then probably play a Texas or Louisiana school, though a Missouri Valley Team might be considered. Of course, if Poly, Weber State, and/or Montana get one of the top 4 pairs, all of this will be moot.

By the way, I've seen Weber State play. They are good, very good. But great, great, great? I don't think so.

I wish Weber State luck in the playoffs. They'll really need it if they play Poly.

[CrunchGriz]

Did you see the game? Yes, Montana won, and it was in SLO. Frankly, you'd think that should make them the better team. They were not and should not have won.

Cal Poly's offense was very good, their defense was terrible, and their kicking game was worse. Don't expect the problem areas to happen again. The inexperienced defense has improved (though they did break down against Southern Utah), and Poly now has an idea of what the Grizzly offense can do ... which, of course, is a considerable amount of damage. But remember, the Montana coaching staff had the opportunity to see the Mustangs, while no Mustang coach saw Montana until they were on the field in SLO.

I cannot guarantee the Mustang kicking team will improve over the Montana game, though they have been better recently (one of their kickers was conspiculously absent the 2nd half of the NCC game and may be injured), but I can guarantee that Montana will not be able to score as easily as they did early in September.

All of this information about how much better Cal Poly is now than in early September is fine and dandy, but...

Did you ever stop to think that Montana might be better now, as well?

I'll give you a hint...they are, on both offense and defense.

For instance, that game against Cal Poly was the first FCS action for a whole raft of Griz defenders on a very young defense. They've matured quite a bit since then.

Not to mention that the Griz offense that was pounding your defense on the ground has found an even better running back than the one who killed you that day.

Take off your green and gold colored glasses--all teams change through the course of a season, and Cal Poly isn't the only one that's gotten better.

Not that CP isn't a great team; I'd never claim that. But the Griz are also playing much tougher D, in particular, than they were at the beginning of the season.

[coover]

[QUOTE=CrunchGriz;1201853]Take off your green and gold colored glasses--all teams change through the course of a season, and Cal Poly isn't the only one that's gotten better.[\QUOTE]


I guess we'll really not know until (and if) the two teams meet. Having some idea of what the guys back east who pair the playoff will do, that is a distinct possibility (though it probably would not be best for the FCS).

Frankly, I'd like to see all three Western teams play a team from the East. I really think each would have a good shot of beating most Eastern teams. In fact, I think each would have a good shot at the Eastern elite, Appy , JMU, Villanova, or Richmond. I would not guarantee a win for the Western Teams, but I would not guarantee a win for the Eastern teams, either. I would expect good, well fought games.

Now as to my green and gold colored glasses. While I am proud of them and my Alma Mater, I'm being as honest as I can when I tell you that after seeing all three teams, Cal Poly vs. Montana, and Weber State vs. Northern Arizona, I rank the three in this order ... 1. Cal Poly, 2. Montana, and 3. Weber State. Yes, I know Weber State beat Montana, but Montana has the better of the two teams.

[appfan2008]

to me it is basically between uni, montana, cal poly, and weber st...

[Houndawg]

Weber State is an excellent team, as is Montana .... but ...

Cal Poly is afraid of neither. Yes, the Griz beat the Mustangs, but it was evident on the field that Poly had the better team. And if Poly has to play Weber State, they will not go into the game expecting to lose. The Weber State coaching staff knows that Cal Poly is a touchdown or two better.

If Weber State and Montana wish to get beyond the first round of the playoffs, they better lobby the playoff selection committee to have Poly play somebody else.

How? By the score?

[appstate38]

to me it is basically between uni, montana, cal poly, and weber st...

Well we could just give all 4 seeds to these teams so that would end the debate right there. Of course JMU and the Apps would naturally retain the home field advantage throughout the semi finals. That way everybody is happy.xsmiley_wix

[Chi Panther]

Right, so it's Poly then. All clear:)

Just win in Mad-town and its all yours....

[UNIFanSince1983]

I don't think seeds or anything matters. The way the Cal Poly fans are talking we don't even need to play the playoffs because they are 2 touchdowns better than every team they play (even the one they lost to). Just give them the national championship, and don't worry about it.

[malibudude]

Just win in Mad-town and its all yours....

Well I hope it is a competive game, with no injuries. I think CP will put points up, not sure about stopping their running game with their big backs and OL size. It will be a great experience for the team.

[malibudude]

I don't think seeds or anything matters. The way the Cal Poly fans are talking we don't even need to play the playoffs because they are 2 touchdowns better than every team they play (even the one they lost to). Just give them the national championship, and don't worry about it.


I have not read the whole thread. CP fans for the most part are and have been pretty grounded on the ol' expectations metre.
Montana is very good and beat Poly in SLO, they have seemed to improve throughout the season,WSU beat Montana, they are the real deal. UNI, SIU are top notch with a solid SDSU on their heals. And then you get to the beasts from the East, JMU, Appalachian State, Villanova, Richmond et al. CP should be part on the NC discussion, they are a very good team but there 7 or 8 other very good teams, that's the beauty of playoffs. I just wish they would mix up the West and East teams a bit more.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I by no means was talking about all the Cal Poly fans even though that is the way I stated it. I and did not mean to take anything away from the team. I think you have a very good team. I watched the SUU game and was impressed with your offense. I had somewhat became a fan of your team.

However, one of your fans continues to be condescending. Saying that they were better than Montana in every aspect even though you lost (not saying you couldn't be better, but the scoreboard didn't say so on that day). And stating that the Weber State coaching staff knows Cal Poly is a touchdown or two better. And you would take us to the woodshed.

All in all I think the 'West's' top teams are better this year then that have been in recent years. (And I was lumping us and SIU into the west). I think any of these teams could make a great run and go to the NC. Good Luck to the Mustangs the rest of the way! (Beat the Badgers!)

[malibudude]

I by no means was talking about all the Cal Poly fans even though that is the way I stated it. I and did not mean to take anything away from the team. I think you have a very good team. I watched the SUU game and was impressed with your offense. I had somewhat became a fan of your team.

However, one of your fans continues to be condescending. Saying that they were better than Montana in every aspect even though you lost (not saying you couldn't be better, but the scoreboard didn't say so on that day). And stating that the Weber State coaching staff knows Cal Poly is a touchdown or two better. And you would take us to the woodshed.

All in all I think the 'West's' top teams are better this year then that have been in recent years. (And I was lumping us and SIU into the west). I think any of these teams could make a great run and go to the NC. Good Luck to the Mustangs the rest of the way! (Beat the Badgers!)

It's all good. Hope we can do FCS proud in Madison, without getting decimated in the process. The teams in the 'West'
do seem better this year. Best of luck to the Panthers!

[Mustang Man]

[QUOTE=CrunchGriz;1201853]Take off your green and gold colored glasses--all teams change through the course of a season, and Cal Poly isn't the only one that's gotten better.[\QUOTE]


I guess we'll really not know until (and if) the two teams meet. Having some idea of what the guys back east who pair the playoff will do, that is a distinct possibility (though it probably would not be best for the FCS).

Frankly, I'd like to see all three Western teams play a team from the East. I really think each would have a good shot of beating most Eastern teams. In fact, I think each would have a good shot at the Eastern elite, Appy , JMU, Villanova, or Richmond. I would not guarantee a win for the Western Teams, but I would not guarantee a win for the Eastern teams, either. I would expect good, well fought games.

Now as to my green and gold colored glasses. While I am proud of them and my Alma Mater, I'm being as honest as I can when I tell you that after seeing all three teams, Cal Poly vs. Montana, and Weber State vs. Northern Arizona, I rank the three in this order ... 1. Cal Poly, 2. Montana, and 3. Weber State. Yes, I know Weber State beat Montana, but Montana has the better of the two teams.


Take it easy there Coover. Lets get by UCD before we start beating the playoff drum. And lets not forget the middle of Poly's offensive line is out with injury. I love the energy, but you may want to down shift just a bit.