Playoff Prognostications (Week 11)

[crusader11]

Things are starting to get clearer and clearer each week. Here are the Prognostications for week 11.

Auto-Bids

Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Ohio Valley: Tennessee State
Patriot League: Holy Cross
SoCon: App State
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large Bids (in no order)

Montana
UNH
Villanova
William and Mary
Southern Illinois
Elon
Wofford
Cal Poly

[BDKJMU]

Remember folks, according to the selection criteria, the #1 seed is paired with the closest out of conference non seeded team from the field. This will certainly hold true if the opponent is within the driveable distance, I believe its 300 miles.
-If JMU is the #1 seed, that will be Elon, 210 miles.
-Then it goes to the #2 seed, is paired with closest OOC non seeded team left. For ASU that will be SC State. Boone- Orangeburg, SC is 229 miles.
-Then it goes to the #3 seed for the closest one left. If Weber is #3, then for them that will be Cal Poly.
If UNI is #4, then the closest would be Montana. Since that would require Montana to fly, they could pair someone else with UNI like the Southland winner, as whoever went to UNI 1st round would have to fly

Once all the seeded teams are paired, then take the remaining 8 and also they try to pair up geographically to minimize flights. SIU would certainly be paired with Tenn State (Nashville-Carbondale 203 miles).

Nova would be paired up with Colgate.

UR or W&M would be paired with Wofford.

That could leave UNH flying to Montana.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/39/Cfdiaa.PNG

[Khan4Cats]

Remember folks, according to the selection criteria, the #1 seed is paired with the closest out of conference non seeded team from the field.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/39/Cfdiaa.PNG

I call BS. No way that New Hampshire was the closest out of conference non-seeded team to UNI last year, yet that is who we got first round.

Likewise, Wofford wasn't any closer to Montana.

[GolfingGriz]

I call BS. No way that New Hampshire was the closest out of conference non-seeded team to UNI last year, yet that is who we got first round.

Likewise, Wofford wasn't any closer to Montana.

Regionalization sucks. Lets just get rid of it. Then maybe Weber or Montana could get the Patriot champ in the first round.

[BDKJMU]

I call BS. No way that New Hampshire was the closest out of conference non-seeded team to UNI last year, yet that is who we got first round.

Likewise, Wofford wasn't any closer to Montana.

I said, "This will certainly hold true if the opponent is within the driveable distance, I believe its 300 miles."

Obviuosly for UNI and Montana last yr, , there was no OOC non seeded opponent within driving distance. It appears if thats the case, then they'll fly someone there, not necessarily the closest.

But you can bet your arse for the 4 seeds if there's an OOC non seed available within the driving distance, 300 miles or whatever it is, they'll be paired up.

[Khan4Cats]

Then it should have been "This will be the case so long as the opponent is within driveable distance" Not "certainly hold true".

And Eastern Illinois was a driveable distance to us. It's just they were closer to SIU, so the #4 seed got the easier first round game. Makes $en$e to me, as long as you follow NCAA logic.

I agree, regionalization sucks. I'm hoping SDSU gets in this year so that the get in a 4-team pod with Montana, Weber State and Cal-Poly and we can slide into a central pod with the OVC, Southland and a wild-card, probably from the CAA (but I'd take Dayton in that scenario!)

[TexasTerror]

About time someone takes the AQ away from NWST after their 42-6 loss yesterday! All hail crusader11!

[BDKJMU]

Use to be a link for the selection criteria on the old College Sporting News. Can't seem to find it there or in NCAA.org.

[DX Man]

It is my understanding that once a team is in the air, distance doesn't matter.

[tingly]

pages 11-13: http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2008/1_football_handbook.pdf

section 31: http://www.ncaapublications.com/Uploads/PDF/Division_1_Manual_2008-09e9e568a1-c269-4423-9ca5-16d6827c16bc.pdf

[Dallas Demon]

About time someone takes the AQ away from NWST after their 42-6 loss yesterday! All hail crusader11!

TT, what's your beef with NWST? We've been the source of most of your losses in your predictions each week. McNeese needs to beat us at home AND Central Arkansas in Conway the last week AND hope that Texas St. loses one of the last two games against Nicholls St. and Sam Houston. It's possible, but the odds are not great. McNeese is in trouble in any tiebreaker situation with either two losses or three losses. xconfusedx

[BDKJMU]

Well, here it is:

"All pairings will be made by the Division I football championship committee. The
following principles are applied when pairing teams:
1. The teams awarded the top four seeds are placed in the appropriate positions in the
bracket (Nos. 1 and 4 in the upper half, and Nos. 2 and 3 in the lower half), and will
be paired with teams that are in closest geographic proximity;
2. The remaining teams will be paired according to geographic proximity and placed in
the bracket according to geographic proximity of the four pairings previously placed
in the bracket.
3. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games;
4. Once the first-round pairings have been determined, there will be no adjustments to
the bracket."

[hawkeye]

SIU would certainly be paired with Tenn State (Nashville-Carbondale 203 miles).

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/39/Cfdiaa.PNG

You mean Tenn Martin (Distance 125 miles Martin to Carbondale) or Eastern Ken. Tn State gets beat at Jax St this weekend and Ryan Perilloux has a record day against the Tigers. xnodx

[roTSU50]

You mean Tenn Martin (Distance 125 miles Martin to Carbondale) or Eastern Ken. Tn State gets beat at Jax St this weekend and Ryan Perilloux has a record day against the Tigers. xnodx

Like, Lee Corso,

Not so fast my freind.

Heff is healthy again, and we are rolling. We rolling through Jax state to get an OVC championship
xrulesx

[McNeese72]

TT, what's your beef with NWST? We've been the source of most of your losses in your predictions each week. McNeese needs to beat us at home AND Central Arkansas in Conway the last week AND hope that Texas St. loses one of the last two games against Nicholls St. and Sam Houston. It's possible, but the odds are not great. McNeese is in trouble in any tiebreaker situation with either two losses or three losses. xconfusedx

Actually, I think ours has got simplified. We need to win out and we need Texas St. to lose and we are in.

Both of those might be hard, though.

Doc

[placidlakegriz]

Come on guys, what are you thinking? This bobcat fan has done all the work on this years Playoff participants:


old wise one- msu bobcat fan
"You got me thinking today, so I did a little research. If the stars align perfectly , there may be a chance we could be in the conversation for the last spot. I will break it down by conference below and also remember the conference GPI rankings.

Conference GPI Rankings
CAA
Southern
Big Sky
Southland
Great West
MVFC
Patriot
Ohio Valley
MEAC


CAA
JMU beats W&M and Towson to finish 8-0 and 10-1 with 10 DI wins and wins the auto.
Richmond beats Delaware and W&M to finish 6-2 and 9-3 with 9 DI wins and gets an at large
Villanova beats Towson and Delaware to finish 7-1 and 9-2 with 9 DI wins and gets an at large
New Hampshire beats UMASS and Maine to finish 6-2 and 9-2 with 9 DI wins and gets an at large

UMASS loses to New Hampshire and beats Hofstra to finish 4-4 and 7-5 with 6 DI wins
W&M loses to JMU and Richmond to finish 5-3 and 7-4 with 7 DI wins (discussed later)
Maine loses to Rhode Island and New Hampshire to finish 4-4 and 7-5 with 7 DI wins (discussed later)

Southern
App St beats Elon and W. Carolina to finish 8-0 and 10-2 with 10 DI wins and gets the auto
Wofford beats Samford and Furman to finish 7-1 and 9-2 with 9 DI wins and gets an at large
Elon loses to App St and beats Liberty to finish 6-2 and 9-3 with 9 DI wins and gets an at large
Furman loses to GSU and Wofford to finish 4-4 and 7-5 with 6 DI wins

Big Sky
Weber St beats EWU to finish 8-0 and 10-2 with 8 DI wins and gets the auto
UM beats ISU and loses to MSU to finish 6-2 and 10-2 with 9 DI wins and gets an at large
MSU beats PSU and UM to finish 6-2 and 8-4 with 6 DI wins (discussed later)

Southland[/u
I think C. Arkansas will win the league but are not eligible, so I will pick McNeese as the auto; it will be a one bid league.

[u]Great West - not an auto bid league
Cal Poly loses to UC Davis and Wisconsin to finish 2-1 and 7-3 with 6 DI wins (discussed later)

Missouri Valley FB
Southern Illinois beats S. Dakota St and ILL St to finish 7-1 and 9-2 with 8 DI wins and gets the auto
N. Iowa beats Ind. St and S. Utah to finish 7-1 and 10-2 with 9 DI wins and gets an at large
W. Illinois loses to either Ill St or Youngstown to finish 4-4 and 6-5
S. Dakota St loses to SIU and NDSU to finish 5-3 and 6-6
N. Dakota St loses to MO St and beats S. Dakota St to finish 4-4 and 6-5

Patriot
Colgate beats Holy Cross to finish 6-0 and 9-2 with 9 DI wins and wins the auto
Holy Cross beats Lafayette and loses to Colgate to finish 5-1 and 7-4 with 7 DI wins (discussed later)
Lafayette loses to Holy Cross and Lehigh to finish 3-3 and 7-4 with 7 DI wins (discussed later)

Ohio Valley
Tenn St beats Jacksonville St and Murray St to finish 7-1 and 10-2 with 10 DI wins and gets the auto
Tenn Martin Beats SE MO St and loses to EKU to finish 5-3 and 8-4 with 6 DI wins (discussed later)
Jacksonville St loses to Tenn St to finish 5-3 and 7-4 with 7 DI wins (discussed later)
EKU loses to Murray St and beats Tenn Martin to finish 6-2 and 7-4 with 7 DI wins (discussed later)

MEAC
SC State runs the league table to finish 8-0 and 10-2 with 9 DI wins to get the auto. It will be a 1 bid league

[u]Big South[/u - not an auto bid league
Liberty beats Gardner Webb and loses to Elon to finish 5-0 and 9-3 with 7 DI wins (discussed later)


That leaves the autobids as:
James Madison
App St
Weber St
McNeese St
Southern Illinois
Colgate
Tennessee State
South Carolina St.

And the in for sures, based on the above as:
Richmond
Villanova
New Hampshire
Wofford
Elon
Montana
Northern Iowa


That gives us 4 from the top rated CAA league and 3 from the second rated Southern League, 2 from the BSC who is rated next, and 2 from the MVFC who is 5th in GPI and then and 1 each from the Southland, Ohio Valley, Patriot and MEAC who are all rated below the BSC.

That leaves one spot left from the following teams (and this is where the Cats would be in the discussion):
MSU 6-2 and 8-4 with 6 DI wins
Cal Poly 2-1 and 7-3 with 6 DI wins (high GPI at this point, but same # of DI wins as MSU. Will the committee give them leway due to the huricanne cancelled game?)
Liberty 5-0 and 9-3 with 7 DI wins (but from a terrible league)
W& M 5-3 and 7-4 with 7 DI wins (but would the committee add a 5th CAA team?)
Maine 4-4 and 7-5 with 7 DI wins (they are behind W&M)
Holy Cross 5-1 and 7-4 with 7 DI wins (Patriot league is way behind the BSC)
Lafayette 3-3 and 7-4 with 7 DI wins (also more DI wins than MSU but third in the Patriot league is a nock against them)
There woudl also be two teams from the Ohio Valley to get to 7 DI wins, but that league is terrible.

I know all the scenarios will not happen, but it does probably mean we have a tiny tiny shot. I think Cal Poly losing to UC Davis would be huge, as they will most definitely lose to Wisconsin and that woudl leave them with the same amount of DI wins as MSU plus they are out west and may open up a Western spot that everyone has already assumed will go to Cal Poly.

*I will also add; if UM were to lose to ISU and to MSU, the committee would face an interesting decision. Obviously, UM at 9-3 with 9 DI wins should be included in the playoffs, but they didn't play any 1A games, played one DII game, and finished a game behind MSU in the conference and lost to them head to head. For those that would include a 9-3 UM team, it would seem likely you would have to include an 8-4 MSU team that played two 1A's and beat UM head to head in Missoula. I only bring up this scenario, because at 9-1 I thought UM is already a lock for the playoffs. Now I am not so sure, and think they need 1 more win to be in for sure."

So there you go, a 8-4-bobcat team gets in with only 6 DI wins. No need for anyone else to put any time trying to figure out the playoff 16.;)

[Silenoz]

Well I seriously doubt we lose to ISU at home. I'll just say that

[LehighFan11]

Lafayette loses to Holy Cross and Lehigh to finish 3-3 and 7-4 with 7 DI wins (discussed later)


Smart manxthumbsupx

[TexasTerror]

TT, what's your beef with NWST? We've been the source of most of your losses in your predictions each week. McNeese needs to beat us at home AND Central Arkansas in Conway the last week AND hope that Texas St. loses one of the last two games against Nicholls St. and Sam Houston. It's possible, but the odds are not great. McNeese is in trouble in any tiebreaker situation with either two losses or three losses. xconfusedx

I got no beef with NWST. The only beef I have is that people are slotting them based off their being #1. Well, there are TWO other teams with that same record and it's not likely NWST is the "hottest" team in the league right now.

And as relates to my predictions, EVERY team is messing me up! I am going 1-3 and 2-2 each week. Bearkats are just as guilty as the next time...

SHSU gets AQ if UCA, SHSU, McN and TXST win this week and then TXST and McN lose next week.

[appfan2008]

I just wish they would rank all 16 teams like in the old days... and go...

[GolfingGriz]

Well I seriously doubt we lose to ISU at home. I'll just say that

haha, yeah cause thats the only road block in the scenerio xrotatehx

[matfu]

I just wish they would rank all 16 teams like in the old days... and go...


AMEN! That would be the fairest by far. Unfortunately money talks!

[Native]

...
-Then it goes to the #3 seed for the closest one left. If Weber is #3, then for them that will be Cal Poly.
If UNI is #4, then the closest would be Montana. Since that would require Montana to fly, they could pair someone else with UNI like the Southland winner, as whoever went to UNI 1st round would have to fly
...
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/39/Cfdiaa.PNG

Poly is just under a thousand miles to Ogden, and UNI is just over. I guess you're right. xlolx

What would UNI get a seed over Montana?

[JayJ79]

And Eastern Illinois was a driveable distance to us. It's just they were closer to SIU, so the #4 seed got the easier first round game. Makes $en$e to me, as long as you follow NCAA logic.

380 miles from UNI (Cedar Falls, IA) to EIU (Charleston, IL).
Not sure what the NCAA uses as the determining point for "driveable" distance.

[rcny46]

380 miles from UNI (Cedar Falls, IA) to EIU (Charleston, IL).
Not sure what the NCAA uses as the determining point for "driveable" distance.


I think they consider anything up to 400 miles as a driveable distance.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I'm pretty sure it is 350. I remember the JMU @ YSU game was just under the drivable distance, and that trip was 320 miles.

[UNI Pike]

Apparently the distance should be 1,200 miles (each way), according to the South Dakota Coyotes, from the Grand Fork Herald, 11/01/08


A long road

UND had back-to-back weeks without games this season. South Dakota, another Division I FCS program in transition, also went two straight weeks without playing.

The Coyotes will play today for the first time since Oct. 11 when they meet North Greenville College, a Division II school in Tigerville, S.C.

South Dakota’s trip to Tigerville was made by bus.

Normally, an FCS program wouldn’t travel that far to a Division II school, but the Coyotes didn’t have many options.

“It was almost May before we got this game,” South Dakota coach Ed Meierkort said. “They needed a home game, but they weren’t going to travel. We needed a game. It’s a long trip, but it’s a game we had to take. Otherwise, we would have had three (straight) weeks off, which is unacceptable.”

Scheduling for South Dakota and UND is expected to be less of a challenge next season as both programs will be considered an FCS counter.

However, Meierkort said McNeese State of Louisiana backed out of an agreement to play in Vermillion next season after the Coyotes played in Lake Charles last season.

Meierkort said South Dakota has secured future dates with four FBS opponents.