Which CAA teams have the best chance of making the playoffs?

[theasushow]

Still a lot of football to be played, but between William& Mary, UMASS (probably out) JMU, 'Nova, UNH, Richmond, and maybe(??) even Maine, who is in? Seems like the CAA should get 3 teams in, but as these teams continue to beat up on one another, the playoff picture seems to be clear as mud. thoughts?

[Dukie95]

JMU and Nova are in
UR or W&M
Maine or UNH

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

JMU and Villanova are IN. The winners of the UR/WM and UNH/Maine games on 11/22 are also in, assuming no upsets next week.

Umass is toast.

[UNHWildCats]

As of tonite the order of likliness is probably

James Madison
Villanova
Richmond
Maine
William and Mary & New Hampshire
Massachusetts

Maine holds that spot if they win out, a loss and W&M and UNH edge past.

Remaining games

James Madison 8-1 (6-0): William & Mary, at Towson
The Dukes are in even if they lose the last two games. They have been a solid team from day one.

Villanova 7-2 (5-1): Towson, at Delaware
Todays win against New Hampshire likely sealked their invitation to the playoffs. Could take the fourth seed with a 9-2 record.

Richmond 7-3 (4-2): Delaware, at William & Mary
Would be hard to leave them out at 8-4, so we likely already have three CAA teams in.

Maine 7-3 (4-2): at Rhode Island, New Hampshire
Likely needs to win out to get in at 9-3. Massachusetts is their best win and that could look less impressive by seasons end. Losing by double digits to Richmond and James Madison won't help like close loses would have.

New Hampshire 7-2 (4-2): Massachusetts, at Maine
Likely in at 9-2. Could sneak in at 8-3. Done at 7-4.

William & Mary 7-2 (5-1): at James Madison, Richmond
This team has the widest range of possible outcomes of them all. 7-4 they're out, 8-3 with a loss to James Madison and they likely make it, 8-3 with a loss to Richmond and they could get a 4 seed, 9-2 they could snag the top seed.

Massachusetts 6-4 (3-3): at New Hampshire, Hofstra
Probably done after todays loss, but anything can happen. Probably would need to beat New Hampshire by 40+ to make it in at 8-4. (I say that because a huge statement win like that would catch the attention of the committee.)

In the end I see James Madison (10-1), Villanova (9-2), Richmond (9-3) and New Hampshire (9-2) getting in. I see the Tribe losing their final two games to finish at 7-4.

[charliej]

Would agree with above... JMU is a lock,Nova probably in also. Third team will most likely be winner of UR-W&M game. IMO UR has best chance,only because W&M has brutal remaining sched.After that I'd say UNH & Maine in that order.I also think UMass is done.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

The interesting scenario is if WM goes up to Harrisonburg and takes out JMU next week ... and then loses to UR.

Assuming the rest goes 'chalk' ... JMU, Nova, UR, WM, UNH/Maine winner are all in?? Cant be.

[theasushow]

The interesting scenario is if WM goes up to Harrisonburg and takes out JMU next week ... and then loses to UR.

Assuming the rest goes 'chalk' ... JMU, Nova, UR, WM, UNH/Maine winner are all in?? Cant be.

thats a big "what if" obviously, but if it were to happen, looks like a big sky or socon team may have to be the sacrifical lamb.

[charliej]

The interesting scenario is if WM goes up to Harrisonburg and takes out JMU next week ... and then loses to UR.

Assuming the rest goes 'chalk' ... JMU, Nova, UR, WM, UNH/Maine winner are all in?? Cant be.


Don't think they're all in, just think this is how they shake out as far as best chances. I think 3,MAYBE 4, make it.

[theasushow]

thats a big "what if" obviously, but if it were to happen, looks like a big sky or socon team may have to be the sacrifical lamb.

i take that back...weber and montana are both in, socon would only get 2.

[UNHWildCats]

The interesting scenario is if WM goes up to Harrisonburg and takes out JMU next week ... and then loses to UR.

Assuming the rest goes 'chalk' ... JMU, Nova, UR, WM, UNH/Maine winner are all in?? Cant be.
well it certainly could. We saw last year that they are willing to put 5 in and they would have a ahrd time keeping out a 9-2 UNH team with an 11 point loss to Nova and what a 3 point loss to the Tribe.

Someone somewhere would be staying home and it wont be a CAA team.

If SIU loses to SDSU that could make it easier as they could leave a 8-3 Saluki team out (unlikely but possible, anhd this assumes UNI wins the auto bid)

The only other two scenerios would be Cal Poly being left out or Wofford or Elon being left out in the SoCon.

[danefan]

what a mess selection sunday is going to be....

I hope AGS has the backup servers primed for use, because this place is going to be packed with people b!tch!ng and complaining about their "deserving" teams not getting in.

[UNHWildCats]

what a mess selection sunday is going to be....

I hope AGS has the backup servers primed for use, because this place is going to be packed with people b!tch!ng and complaining about their "deserving" teams not getting in.
i think on selection sunday the entire lounge section should be shut down to help the servers... it gets soo slow on here that day.

[danefan]

i think on selection sunday the entire lounge section should be shut down to help the servers... it gets soo slow on here that day.

agreed.

something similar to the election threads is probably a good idea also.

[Poly Pigskin]

Might be the first year with multiple teams with a legitimate claim to being "woofed."

[mainejeff]

JMU and Nova are in
UR or W&M
Maine or UNH

Agreed.

4 CAA teams.

[Hoyadestroya85]

thank god it's looking like one of those teams is Villanova

[theasushow]

when i see "villanova" all i think of is "kerry kittles"
dont take it personal....

[Hoyadestroya85]

I don't take it personal, i'm proud that Kerry Kittles went to Villanova.. great player, even better man

[rcny46]

I suppose it's possible that nobody from the CAA's northern division would make the playoffs.If UNH loses their last two,and Maine goes down at URI,that would leave every team with at least 4 in the loss column.That could be taken further if W&M were to defeat Richmond,but lose to JMU,that would give the Tribe and UR 4 losses each.Since any four loss team is most likely out,would that mean that only two from the conference would make it? Probably just useless speculation on my part.

[rcny46]

I suppose it is possible that only three teams from the CAA would be going,all from the southern division.UMass already has 4 losses,and UNH & Maine could also end up with that many in the loss column.

[charliej]

While not likely...It's possible for the CAA to have as many as 7 teams finish the season at 8-3 or 8-4.... Yikes!xeekx

[T-Dog]

Maine and UNH have to run the table to get an at large. And of course they play each other on 11/22 so only one will possibly run the table. And if both lose a game before the end of the season, they're both in trouble.

In that case, I don't think the CAA North gets a team in and the CAA only gets three teams in. Then I can see Furman sneaking in as long as they take care of business and the SoCon possibly getting four teams.

Basically, both the CAA and SoCon will get at least three. If the CAA North beats itself up some more, then that fourth bid will go to the SoCon.

[mainejeff]

Maine and UNH have to run the table to get an at large. And of course they play each other on 11/22 so only one will possibly run the table. And if both lose a game before the end of the season, they're both in trouble.

You do realize that "running the table" means that they both win next week's games? xrolleyesx

If they both win, then one of them is going to the playoffs. ;)

[BDKJMU]

Maine and UNH have to run the table to get an at large. And of course they play each other on 11/22 so only one will possibly run the table. And if both lose a game before the end of the season, they're both in trouble.

In that case, I don't think the CAA North gets a team in and the CAA only gets three teams in. Then I can see Furman sneaking in as long as they take care of business and the SoCon possibly getting four teams.

Basically, both the CAA and SoCon will get at least three. If the CAA North beats itself up some more, then that fourth bid will go to the SoCon.

You're wrong on UNH. UNH loses 1 more, and they still get in at 8-3. That would be 8-3 vs Div I competition with a Div I-A win. Now if UNH loses to UMass AND Maine, of course they're out, but then Maine would get in at 9-3. The CAA North WILL have one team in. The CAA South will have 3: JMU, Nova, and the UR/W&M winner.
-FU will drop one of their last 2, and 8-4 with a Div 2 and they'll be out. The So-Con will get 3 in.

That will be 3 At Large for the CAA, 2 for the So-Con, with the remaining 3 being Big Sky (Montana) MVC (SIU) and Cal Poly.

[charliej]

You're wrong on UNH. UNH loses 1 more, and they still get in at 8-3. That would be 8-3 vs Div I competition with a Div I win. .....


Not so sure. Would 8-3 UNH get in over an 8-3 W&M and 8-4 UR? SOS would become a factor IMO....and I'm not sure UNH wins that argument. xconfusedx

[Hoyadestroya85]

UNH did beat an FBS team... (although not a very good one)

[T-Dog]

You're wrong on UNH. UNH loses 1 more, and they still get in at 8-3. That would be 8-3 vs Div I competition with a Div I win. Now if UNH loses to UMass AND Maine, of course they're out, but then Maine would get in at 9-3. The CAA North WILL have one team in. The CAA South will have 3: JMU, Nova, and the UR/W&M winner.
-FU will drop one of their last 2, and 8-4 with a Div 2 and they'll be out. The So-Con will get 3 in.

That will be 3 At Large for the CAA, 2 for the So-Con, with the remaining 3 being Big Sky (Montana) MVC (SIU) and Cal Poly.

A 8-3 UNH team is a very weak 8-3. Sure they have an FBS win, but it was a weak FBS win (vs Army). They don't have a meaningful win besides that and some could argue that beating Army isn't that meaningful. The CAA cycle is really hurting them this year in not playing the top CAA South teams.

And saying that, another loss for Maine would put them out with 4 losses. So UNH with another loss and Maine with another loss would put them both out for me.

And I wouldn't count my chickens on Furman. They can very much win their final two. And if Furman wins @ Wofford, then it sets up a three-way tie for second in the SoCon with each having a quality win over the one of the others (assuming App beats Elon next week which would clinch the autobid for App).

I'm sorry, it's just than I don't see UNH as playoff worthy with their schedule being at 8-3 at the end.

[Syntax Error]

"Which CAA teams have the best chance of making the playoffs?"

With nearly 10% of the FCS in one league and some great teams, which doesn't is a better question.

[BDKJMU]

Not so sure. Would 8-3 UNH get in over an 8-3 W&M and 8-4 UR? SOS would become a factor IMO....and I'm not sure UNH wins that argument. xconfusedx

Would an 8-3 UNH get in over an 8-3 W&M? No. But if W&M loses to JMU then beats UR, an 8-3 UNH could get in along with an 8-3 W&M.

Would an 8-3 UNH get in over an 8-4 UR? Yes.

[Syntax Error]

thinking JMU, VU, UR, WM ................................ and UNH

[BDKJMU]

A 8-3 UNH team is a very weak 8-3. Sure they have an FBS win, but it was a weak FBS win (vs Army). They don't have a meaningful win besides that and some could argue that beating Army isn't that meaningful. The CAA cycle is really hurting them this year in not playing the top CAA South teams.

And saying that, another loss for Maine would put them out with 4 losses. So UNH with another loss and Maine with another loss would put them both out for me.

And I wouldn't count my chickens on Furman. They can very much win their final two. And if Furman wins @ Wofford, then it sets up a three-way tie for second in the SoCon with each having a quality win over the one of the others (assuming App beats Elon next week which would clinch the autobid for App).

I'm sorry, it's just than I don't see UNH as playoff worthy with their schedule being at 8-3 at the end.

I'm willing to make a straight up wager with anyone than UNH gets in at 8-3.
They get in at 8-3 I win.
They don't get in at 8-3 you win.
They end up 7-4 or 9-2 its a moot point....

[T-Dog]

Would an 8-3 UNH get in over an 8-3 W&M? No. But if W&M loses to JMU then beats UR, an 8-3 UNH could get in along with an 8-3 W&M.

Would an 8-3 UNH get in over an 8-4 UR? Yes.

UR is out with another loss period.

I just think it could be possible the CAA only gets three teams in (JMU, Nova, W&M/UR winner) so it's not a matter of who would get in over who and that both would be sitting at home.

And of course if UNH finished 9-2, they're in. Maine doesn't get in if they lose to UNH.

No way the CAA gets in five.

[mainejeff]

How does UNH do vs. the run?

[purplepeopleeaterv2]

How does UNH do vs. the run?

We ran all over them in the past few years that we've played them. W&M faired pretty well against them as well using the run.

[Poly Pigskin]

If UNH over Army isn't a quality win, then how come more FCS teams don't beat crappy FBS teams?

[charliej]

We ran all over them in the past few years that we've played them. W&M faired pretty well against them as well using the run.


Nova ran over them pretty good too.

[purplepeopleeaterv2]

Nova ran over them pretty good too.

Hadn't had a chance to review the game other than the score so I didn't want to comment. Congrats xthumbsupx

[mainejeff]

Nova ran over them pretty good too.

Thanks. This bodes well for Maine if they don't look past URI next Saturday. xthumbsupx

[soccerguy315]

No way the CAA gets in five.

JMU
Villanova
UNH goes 9-2
W&M beats JMU, loses to UR to go 8-3
Richmond gets in with loses to JMU, Villanova, and UVA

... do they take 5?

JMU and Villanova would be in
Richmond should be in at 8-3
W&M would be the only FCS to beat JMU, and would be 8-3 with head to head win over UNH
UNH would be 9-2, 1 game better than W&M, with a FBS win, but a head to head loss to W&M

clearly this requires W&M to beat JMU, which is unlikely... but possible. I wonder what would happen in this situation.

[Cobblestone]

Madison
'Nova
UNH

[BDKJMU]

A 8-3 UNH team is a very weak 8-3. Sure they have an FBS win, but it was a weak FBS win (vs Army). They don't have a meaningful win besides that and some could argue that beating Army isn't that meaningful. The CAA cycle is really hurting them this year in not playing the top CAA South teams.

And saying that, another loss for Maine would put them out with 4 losses. So UNH with another loss and Maine with another loss would put them both out for me.

And I wouldn't count my chickens on Furman. They can very much win their final two. And if Furman wins @ Wofford, then it sets up a three-way tie for second in the SoCon with each having a quality win over the one of the others (assuming App beats Elon next week which would clinch the autobid for App).

I'm sorry, it's just than I don't see UNH as playoff worthy with their schedule being at 8-3 at the end.

Wrong on UNH not having a quality win besides Army.
-If UMH beats UMass next week, what would you call UNH beating a UMass team that ends up 7-5. Not meaningful?
-Assuming Maine beats URI next week, what would you call UNH beating an 8-3 Maine team (if it happens)? Not meaningful?

Furman wins out they would be 8-3 vs Div I (Mars Hill don't count).
-0 I-A wins
-2-2 vs teams finishing with 7 or more wins (wins Colgate, Wofford; losses ASU, Elon)

UNH wins out they would be 8-3 vs Div I
-1 I-A win
-1-3 vs teams with an least 7 wins. (wins either UMass or Maine; losses W&M, Nova and either UMass or Maine)

If UNH spits their last 2 games wth UMass & Maine & finishes 8-3, they would have 2 quality wins (teams finishing with at least 7 wins):
-Army
-UMass or Maine

[BDKJMU]

JMU
Villanova
UNH goes 9-2
W&M beats JMU, loses to UR to go 8-3
Richmond gets in with loses to JMU, Villanova, and UVA

... do they take 5?

JMU and Villanova would be in
Richmond should be in at 8-3
W&M would be the only FCS to beat JMU, and would be 8-3 with head to head win over UNH
UNH would be 9-2, 1 game better than W&M, with a FBS win, but a head to head loss to W&M

clearly this requires W&M to beat JMU, which is unlikely... but possible. I wonder what would happen in this situation.

RICHMOND PLAYS 12 GAMES, ALL DIV I.

[T-Dog]

Uh......William and Mary beat UNH in Durham.....at their homecoming.

So as of now, besides Army, UNH doesn't have a meaningful win.

[BDKJMU]

Uh......William and Mary beat UNH in Durham.....at their homecoming.

So as of now, besides Army, UNH doesn't have a meaningful win.

Darn, I was going to correct that a few min after I posted it, my internet connection went out, and you beat me too it. Figured at this hr I'd have this thread all to myself.

Yeah, but UNH finishes 8-3 which is the whole point of this arguement they'll have 2 quality wins.

[art vandelay]

I'm willing to make a straight up wager with anyone than UNH gets in at 8-3.
They get in at 8-3 I win.
They don't get in at 8-3 you win.
They end up 7-4 or 9-2 its a moot point....

i agree 100%. I know it bothers people that this is the case but im with you they will be in at 8-3. look they made it last year at 7-4 and the year before at 8-3.

[soccerguy315]

RICHMOND PLAYS 12 GAMES, ALL DIV I.

THEN PRETEND I SAID NINE AND THREE, SORRY!

[soccerguy315]

Uh......William and Mary beat UNH in Durham.....at their homecoming.

So as of now, besides Army, UNH doesn't have a meaningful win.

would UMass and/or Maine be a meaningful win? I guess maybe not since they wouldn't be making the playoffs if UNH wins out?

[Hoyadestroya85]

would UMass and/or Maine be a meaningful win? I guess maybe not since they wouldn't be making the playoffs if UNH wins out?

this is hogwash, UNH hasn't played the best schedule, but it's not like they're a deplorable team.. if you have 8 wins as a CAA team, you should be guaranteed a playoff berth

[HensRock]

You're wrong on UNH. UNH loses 1 more, and they still get in at 8-3.

No, I beleive that you are wrong on UNH. At 8-3 with a loss to Maine, UNH is out and Maine is in, IMO. UNH would have no quality wins in that scenario. And Please don't tell me Army is a quality win. Maine will have played a more difficult schedule and have a fresh head-to-head win in their favor for the selection committee to consider.

[HensRock]

And before we get too far, I recall Villanova being left out at 8-3 in my recent memory. They had a Div II loss, but they still had 8 Div I wins.

I just don't think 5 CAA teams will go this year, and Maine would definitely deserve to go ahead of UNH if they beat them. Also I'm assuming either UR or W&M would be in as well. For neither of them to make it would require a complete meltdown which would include UD beating UR at UR. i.e. not likely.

[rcny46]

No, I beleive that you are wrong on UNH. At 8-3 with a loss to Maine, UNH is out and Maine is in, IMO. UNH would have no quality wins in that scenario. And Please don't tell me Army is a quality win. Maine will have played a more difficult schedule and have a fresh head-to-head win in their favor for the selection committee to consider.


Agree 100%.UNH must go 9-2.

[charliej]

this is hogwash, UNH hasn't played the best schedule, but it's not like they're a deplorable team.. if you have 8 wins as a CAA team, you should be guaranteed a playoff berth

I would agree,but not this year. After JMU & Nova you could have W&M,UR,UNH,Maine and even UMASS with 8 D1 wins.

There is no way that 7 teams from the CAA will go so there would be some 8 win teams staying home.

The fact that UNH made it last year at 7-4 makes no difference.Completely different circumstances ...and Santos is gone.

I don't think UNH is a deplorable team either,but i do think if it came down to it they would be behind W&M and UR based on SOS. Perhaps same holds true for Maine.

Stranger things have happend however,we'll just have to see how things shake out in the next few weeks.

[mainejeff]

this is hogwash, UNH hasn't played the best schedule, but it's not like they're a deplorable team.. if you have 8 wins as a CAA team, you should be guaranteed a playoff berth

That would be good news for Maine!

[mainejeff]

Agree 100%.UNH must go 9-2.

UNH's only hope with an 8-3 record is..........

1. UNH loses a close game to UMass and beats Maine.
2. W&M loses to both Richmond and JMU to finish 7-4.

I think that they would get in along with JMU, Villanova, and Richmond.

[UNHFan99]

An 8 and 3 UNH team is in, but will be at App State on TV. Thats what I think.

[UNHWildCats]

Not so sure. Would 8-3 UNH get in over an 8-3 W&M and 8-4 UR? SOS would become a factor IMO....and I'm not sure UNH wins that argument. xconfusedx
He said the South would get 3 in, so UNH would only go in ahead of either Richmond or W&M. Now W&M has two tough games left and is probably more likely to finish 7-4 then 8-3. But if they finish 8-3 or even 9-2 they get in. If Richmond is victim to W&M they are likely out instead.

[UNHWildCats]

thinking JMU, VU, UR, WM ................................ and UNH
me too. I looked at the entire FCS standings late last nite and certainly some cases could playout to deny a 5th team, but its just as likely scenerios could play out nfor 5 to get in.

[UNHWildCats]

How does UNH do vs. the run?
127.9 per game.

[UNHWildCats]

If UNH over Army isn't a quality win, then how come more FCS teams don't beat crappy FBS teams?
The UNH haters need to find any argument they can.

[mainejeff]

I love the way that some are dismissing Maine's chances of beating URI and UNH but assuming that W&M will beat JMU or Richmond. xlolx .......or that an 8-4 Richmond team would be a shoe-in xlolx. I think that a 9-3 Maine team would be in over an 8-4 Richmond team despite Richmond's lopsided win over Maine back in September. The reason?......7-0 to end the season trumps head to head back in September.

[LehighFan11]

I love the way that some are dismissing Maine's chances of beating URI and UNH but assuming that W&M will beat JMU or Richmond. xlolx .......or that an 8-4 Richmond team would be a shoe-in xlolx. I think that a 9-3 Maine team would be in over an 8-4 Richmond team despite Richmond's lopsided win over Maine back in September. The reason?......7-0 to end the season trumps head to head back in September.

I agree. Richmond won't be doing themselves any favors by losing their last game.

[UNHWildCats]

Uh......William and Mary beat UNH in Durham.....at their homecoming.

So as of now, besides Army, UNH doesn't have a meaningful win.
Exactly how is that bit even relevent to the conversation?

[BlueHen86]

"Which CAA teams have the best chance of making the playoffs?"

With nearly 10% of the FCS in one league and some great teams, which doesn't is a better question.

Delaware doesn'txbawlingx

[charliej]

I love the way that some are dismissing Maine's chances of beating URI and UNH but assuming that W&M will beat JMU or Richmond. xlolx .......or that an 8-4 Richmond team would be a shoe-in xlolx. I think that a 9-3 Maine team would be in over an 8-4 Richmond team despite Richmond's lopsided win over Maine back in September. The reason?......7-0 to end the season trumps head to head back in September.


Not assuming anything will happen, just pointing out what could happen.I would not dismiss Maine at all, they could very well win out

9-3 Maine would almost certainly get in over 8-4 UR,but not sure what would happen if they both finish 8-4.xconfusedx

[BlueHen86]

I think the CAA gets four in:
JMU - already in
Villanova - need one more win to be sure, they should won both of their remaining games.
William & Mary, Maine, UNH and Richmond will fight for the last two spots.

[apaladin]

If UNH over Army isn't a quality win, then how come more FCS teams don't beat crappy FBS teams?

Because crappy FBS teams generally don't schedule good FCS teams to save the embarassment.

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

I see JMU, Nova, and UR all running the table and advancing to the playoffs. There will be a 8 win team left out this year and depending how Maine and UNH finish the season......they both could be left out....

That is just my opinion....of course it depends how all the other conferences finish up as well. I don't see the CAA getting 5 and 4 may be a stretch......only time will tell.

Go Dukes

[Eight Legger]

I'd be shocked if Maine got in at 9-3 over UR at 8-4, considering that we killed Maine. Were that not the case, I wouldn't be surprised. I do think if it comes down to 8-3 UNH vs. 8-4 UR, that will be an interesting scenario. I don't expect us to finish 8-4, however, so the point will be moot.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Hey everyone, lets be honest here: The purpose of the playoffs is to determine a Champion. If your team is a Championship team, they're going to win the rest of their games.

Who cares if UNH goes 8-3 and gets into the playoffs? They're going to get rolled in Boone or Missoula or elsewhere. Same thing with Richmond if they go 8-4.

JMU and Villanova and William and Mary have cushion to lose one more time and get into the playoffs.

UNH, Maine and Richmond don't ... and William and Mary might not next week.

[santosballnewhampshire]

Hey everyone, lets be honest here: The purpose of the playoffs is to determine a Champion. If your team is a Championship team, they're going to win the rest of their games.

Who cares if UNH goes 8-3 and gets into the playoffs? They're going to get rolled in Boone or Missoula or elsewhere. Same thing with Richmond if they go 8-4.

JMU and Villanova and William and Mary have cushion to lose one more time and get into the playoffs.

UNH, Maine and Richmond don't ... and William and Mary might not next week.
UNH CAN LOSE ANOTHER GAME, AT 8-3 I WILL GUARANTEE THEY GET IN

[UNHWildCats]

Hey everyone, lets be honest here: The purpose of the playoffs is to determine a Champion. If your team is a Championship team, they're going to win the rest of their games.

Who cares if UNH goes 8-3 and gets into the playoffs? They're going to get rolled in Boone or Missoula or elsewhere. Same thing with Richmond if they go 8-4.

JMU and Villanova and William and Mary have cushion to lose one more time and get into the playoffs.

UNH, Maine and Richmond don't ... and William and Mary might not next week.
xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx Ask UNI how they feel about that comment. No one gave UNH a shot last year and UNH nearly won that game. Don't discount teams from the power conferences.

[UNHWildCats]

UNH CAN LOSE ANOTHER GAME, AT 8-3 I WILL GUARANTEE THEY GET IN
I wouldnt guarantee it, likely but not solid.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx Ask UNI how they feel about that comment. No one gave UNH a shot last year and UNH nearly won that game. Don't discount teams from the power conferences.

Who cares? UNI didn't end up being a factor in the playoffs last year. You played them tight in the first round ... great!

If you're really worried about how you get in after losing another regular season game, you've lost already.

[smcwildcat]

If UNH over Army isn't a quality win, then how come more FCS teams don't beat crappy FBS teams?

thank you....very friggen well said

[smcwildcat]

How does UNH do vs. the run?

before nova number 2 in caa

[smcwildcat]

No, I beleive that you are wrong on UNH. At 8-3 with a loss to Maine, UNH is out and Maine is in, IMO. UNH would have no quality wins in that scenario. And Please don't tell me Army is a quality win. Maine will have played a more difficult schedule and have a fresh head-to-head win in their favor for the selection committee to consider.

why dont u talk when u beat a quality 1a team....
we will miss u this year BTW..

[BlueHen86]

why dont u talk when u beat a quality 1a team....
we will miss u this year BTW..
A little sensitive aren't you? HensRock offered a reasonable opinion, if you want to take shots at the Hens, be my guest - on the smack board.

[smcwildcat]

my fault sorry i appologize

[appstate38]

Maine holds that spot if they win out, a loss and W&M and UNH edge past.

Remaining games

James Madison 8-1 (6-0): William & Mary, at Towson
The Dukes are in even if they lose the last two games. They have been a solid team from day one.

Villanova 7-2 (5-1): Towson, at Delaware
Todays win against New Hampshire likely sealked their invitation to the playoffs. Could take the fourth seed with a 9-2 record.

Richmond 7-3 (4-2): Delaware, at William & Mary
Would be hard to leave them out at 8-4, so we likely already have three CAA teams in.

Maine 7-3 (4-2): at Rhode Island, New Hampshire
Likely needs to win out to get in at 9-3. Massachusetts is their best win and that could look less impressive by seasons end. Losing by double digits to Richmond and James Madison won't help like close loses would have.

New Hampshire 7-2 (4-2): Massachusetts, at Maine
Likely in at 9-2. Could sneak in at 8-3. Done at 7-4.

William & Mary 7-2 (5-1): at James Madison, Richmond
This team has the widest range of possible outcomes of them all. 7-4 they're out, 8-3 with a loss to James Madison and they likely make it, 8-3 with a loss to Richmond and they could get a 4 seed, 9-2 they could snag the top seed.

Massachusetts 6-4 (3-3): at New Hampshire, Hofstra
Probably done after todays loss, but anything can happen. Probably would need to beat New Hampshire by 40+ to make it in at 8-4. (I say that because a huge statement win like that would catch the attention of the committee.)



I see 3 teams and a possible 4th for the CAA

If William & Mary can split with JMU and UR then they are in. Lose both and I think they are done.

UMass- Done

UNH- Still not sold on the Cats. Winner of the game with Maine could be in. I believe they need to win out. 8-3 doesn't get it done this year.

Maine- Same as above. For UNH as well if they aren't any stronger 8-3 teams then that could be good enough but I wouldn't take a chance.

Richmond is in even if they lose to W&M

Nova and JMU can make their travel plans. They are in.

[BDKJMU]

No, I beleive that you are wrong on UNH. At 8-3 with a loss to Maine, UNH is out and Maine is in, IMO. UNH would have no quality wins in that scenario. And Please don't tell me Army is a quality win. Maine will have played a more difficult schedule and have a fresh head-to-head win in their favor for the selection committee to consider.

You have to call any win over any I-A a quality win. And in the scenario of UNH finishing 8-3 with losing to Maine would mean beating a UMass team that finished 7-5, which would be a quality win. Last year people were calling a win over 7-4 UNH and 7-4 Nova as quality wins, so beat a 7 win team seems to be the bar for quality wins.

Any which way you cut it, a UNH team that finished 8-3 would have 2 quality wins: Army and over either a UMass team that finished 7-5 UMass or a Maine team that finished 8-4.

[BDKJMU]

I love the way that some are dismissing Maine's chances of beating URI and UNH but assuming that W&M will beat JMU or Richmond. xlolx .......or that an 8-4 Richmond team would be a shoe-in xlolx. I think that a 9-3 Maine team would be in over an 8-4 Richmond team despite Richmond's lopsided win over Maine back in September. The reason?......7-0 to end the season trumps head to head back in September.

Right now there will be just too many 8-3 or 9-3 teams (8-9 Div I wins, no more than 3 losses) for an 8-4 UR to get in. UR has to win out to get in. A 9-3 Maine would certainly get in over an 8-4 UR, as would an 8-3 W&M who beat an 8-4 UR. Has there ever been a 9 Div I win Yankee/A-10/CAA not make it? I don't think so.

[mainejeff]

9-3 Maine would almost certainly get in over 8-4 UR,but not sure what would happen if they both finish 8-4.xconfusedx

Richmond would be in......and I would have no problem with that. :)

[BDKJMU]

I see 3 teams and a possible 4th for the CAA

If William & Mary can split with JMU and UR then they are in. Lose both and I think they are done.

UMass- Done

UNH- Still not sold on the Cats. Winner of the game with Maine could be in. I believe they need to win out. 8-3 doesn't get it done this year.

Maine- Same as above. For UNH as well if they aren't any stronger 8-3 teams then that could be good enough but I wouldn't take a chance.

Richmond is in even if they lose to W&M

Nova and JMU can make their travel plans. They are in.

Wrong on that. An 8-3 UNH or 9-3 Maine would get in over UR. UR is done if they lose a 4th game, just as UMass is now done losing their 4th game. Their WILL BE NO 4 LOSS TEAMS GETTING AN AT LARGE FROM ANY CONFERENCE.

[mainejeff]

I'd be shocked if Maine got in at 9-3 over UR at 8-4, considering that we killed Maine.

I wouldn't be.

xcoffeex

[mainejeff]

If William & Mary can split with JMU and UR then they are in. Lose both and I think they are done.

You "think"? xrolleyesx

7-4 and losing your final 2 games isn't getting anyone a whiff of the playoffs!

[santosballnewhampshire]

Right now there will be just too many 8-3 or 9-3 teams (8-9 Div I wins, no more than 3 losses) for an 8-4 UR to get in. UR has to win out to get in. A 9-3 Maine would certainly get in over an 8-4 UR, as would an 8-3 W&M who beat an 8-4 UR. Has there ever been a 9 Div I win Yankee/A-10/CAA not make it? I don't think so.

I highly doubt it, considering theres only been a very few 8 Div I win CAA teams not make it

[blur2005]

I think an 8-4 Richmond trumps a 9-3 Maine for a playoff spot. Richmond beat Maine and had a more difficult schedule.

[rcny46]

I think an 8-4 Richmond trumps a 9-3 Maine for a playoff spot. Richmond beat Maine and had a more difficult schedule.

In that case,I just have the feeling that the head to head between the two teams would have little bearing on the committee's decisions.I also don't think Maine's schedule was an easy one by any stretch (Iowa,JMU,UR,UNH,Umass,UD).

[Longhorn]

this is hogwash, UNH hasn't played the best schedule, but it's not like they're a deplorable team.. if you have 8 wins as a CAA team, you should be guaranteed a playoff berth


Agreed. UNH finishes 8-3 they're a lock for an at-large.

[rcny46]

Agreed. UNH finishes 8-3 they're a lock for an at-large.

I don't want to sound too repetitive,but I will be totally (though pleasantly) surprised if that happens.

[blur2005]

In that case,I just have the feeling that the head to head between the two teams would have little bearing on the committee's decisions.I also don't think Maine's schedule was an easy one by any stretch (Iowa,JMU,UR,UNH,Umass,UD).
I mean, if it comes down to Maine vs. Richmond for a final team from the CAA and UR is 8-4 and Maine is 9-3, I think they'll take the Spiders.

[ccd494]

I mean, if it comes down to Maine vs. Richmond for a final team from the CAA and UR is 8-4 and Maine is 9-3, I think they'll take the Spiders.

At which point, you have to start asking questions like: "Why the hell are we in the CAA if we can win 9 games and not make the playoffs?"

[Syntax Error]

North to South:
UNH
UMASS
UM
JMU
UR
VU
WM

[Longhorn]

At which point, you have to start asking questions like: "Why the hell are we in the CAA if we can win 9 games and not make the playoffs?"


If Maine wins 9 games they're going to the playoffs. That's a no-brainer, regardless of what UR's record is. I doubt the CAA gets 5 in this year tho, with 4 teams seeming far more likely.

[ccd494]

If Maine wins 9 games they're going to the playoffs. That's a no-brainer, regardless of what UR's record is. I doubt the CAA gets 5 in this year tho, with 4 teams seeming far more likely.

Good, because as nice as it is to be affiliated with some of the FCS's heavyweights, we could save a lot of money in a more regional conference. If CAA membership isn't guaranteeing us playoff appearances in 9 win seasons, I see no reason to continue that affiliation. Maine can win 9 games in a conference with UNH, UMass, URI, CCSU, Albany and Stony Brook and miss the playoffs just as easily.

[Turfwar]

Nova might actually get a Seed.

[mainejeff]

I think an 8-4 Richmond trumps a 9-3 Maine for a playoff spot. Richmond beat Maine and had a more difficult schedule.

B.S.

[mainejeff]

I mean, if it comes down to Maine vs. Richmond for a final team from the CAA and UR is 8-4 and Maine is 9-3, I think they'll take the Spiders.

Of course you do.........xrolleyesx xrolleyesx xrolleyesx

[mainejeff]

Good, because as nice as it is to be affiliated with some of the FCS's heavyweights, we could save a lot of money in a more regional conference. If CAA membership isn't guaranteeing us playoff appearances in 9 win seasons, I see no reason to continue that affiliation. Maine can win 9 games in a conference with UNH, UMass, URI, CCSU, Albany and Stony Brook and miss the playoffs just as easily.

GREAT post! xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx

[JMU2004]

GREAT post! xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx

wait....are you off the FIRE COSGROVE bus? Or did you just migrate to the COSGROVE FAREWELL TOUR?

[Jackman]

North to South:
UNH
UMASS
UM
JMU
UR
VU
WM
I can't think of a single way to read this list that would explain putting UMass between UNH and Maine. It's like a MENSA puzzle. Any Ivy League AGSers care to take a shot? I've ruled out best or worst chances to make the playoffs and geography...

[T-Dog]

North to South:
UNH
UMASS
UM
JMU
UR
VU
WM

This is one of the most confusing posts in the history of AGS and that covers a lot of ground. xeyebrowx

[BlueHen86]

North to South:
UNH
UMASS
UM
JMU
UR
VU
WM
The highway is green, but my father is well.

[mainejeff]

wait....are you off th-e FIRE COSGROVE bus? Or did you just migrate to the COSGROVE FAREWELL TOUR?

His post had nothing to do with Cosgrove......it had to do with conference affiliation. If Maine can't get a playoff bid going 9-3 (6-2 in the CAA).......then why even be in an expensive Southern based conference???xconfusedx Most of our recruits are from PA/NJ and North.......I really don't think that they sign with Maine because we play a bunch of Virginia schools. My guess is that they are more interested in Maine's recent string of FBS opponents. xthumbsupx

[89Hen]

JMU and Nova are in
UR or W&M
Maine or UNH
What he said and I'll go out on a limb and say Richmond and Maine.

[HensRock]

What he said and I'll go out on a limb and say Richmond and Maine.

Agree with 89

[Hoyadestroya85]

If Maine makes it to the Playoffs, it's the story of the year

[89Hen]

If Maine makes it to the Playoffs, it's the story of the year
And you can thank the Hens for knocking out another starting QB in the Tub and have the team go on to a great season. xoopsx

[Hoyadestroya85]

And you can thank the Hens for knocking out another starting QB in the Tub and have the team go on to a great season. xoopsx

Well Bill and Mary did that to Villanova last year, and look at Whitney.. he's a stud

[WrenFGun]

What he said and I'll go out on a limb and say Richmond and Maine.

I think William & Mary and Maine are in the driver's seat. Who would've thunk it?

If UNH finishes at 8-3 with a win over Massachusetts and a loss to Maine, it's awfully hard to imagine them having a shot to get in. They'll be the 8-3 team to miss out, if that happens. Don't see an 8-3 UNH in over a 9-3 Maine (with a win over UNH), Villanova, W&M/Richmond, Cal Poly, Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois, Montana or Wofford.

There best shot at 8-3 might be with Elon, who could either lose to Liberty or also be 8-3 but without an FCS win.

[WrenFGun]

As an aside, how funny would it be if UNH, at 8-3, got a bid over Elon? I think the SoCon fans would blow up.

[rcny46]

I think William & Mary and Maine are in the driver's seat. Who would've thunk it?

If UNH finishes at 8-3 with a win over Massachusetts and a loss to Maine, it's awfully hard to imagine them having a shot to get in. They'll be the 8-3 team to miss out, if that happens. Don't see an 8-3 UNH in over a 9-3 Maine (with a win over UNH), Villanova, W&M/Richmond, Cal Poly, Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois, Montana or Wofford.

There best shot at 8-3 might be with Elon, who could either lose to Liberty or also be 8-3 but without an FCS win.


You're right.8-3 with a loss to Maine and it's over.8-3 with a win over Maine would give them some hope,although it would be a slim possibility IMO.

[danefan]

North to South:
UNH
UMASS
UM
JMU
UR
VU
WM

Exactly. xthumbsupx Rep points.

[WrenFGun]

I think William & Mary and Maine are in the driver's seat. Who would've thunk it?

If UNH finishes at 8-3 with a win over Massachusetts and a loss to Maine, it's awfully hard to imagine them having a shot to get in. They'll be the 8-3 team to miss out, if that happens. Don't see an 8-3 UNH in over a 9-3 Maine (with a win over UNH), Villanova, W&M/Richmond, Cal Poly, Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois, Montana or Wofford.

There best shot at 8-3 might be with Elon, who could either lose to Liberty or also be 8-3 but without an FCS win.


You're right.8-3 with a loss to Maine and it's over.8-3 with a win over Maine would give them some hope,although it would be a slim possibility IMO.

I don't think the possibility is slim, IMO. UNH would be the fourth team from the best conference in FCS. They'd be pretty likely to get in at 8-3 in that instance. Who do you take over them? A potential four loss Furman or UMass?

[rcny46]

I don't think the possibility is slim, IMO. UNH would be the fourth team from the best conference in FCS. They'd be pretty likely to get in at 8-3 in that instance. Who do you take over them? A potential four loss Furman or UMass?

I can see a scenario in which 4 SoCon teams make it in.Furman,Wofford,and Elon could all end up with three losses.Of course,App St. is already in and I don't know if UNH at 1-2 over their last three and 8-3 overall would get in before any 3 loss team from the Southern Conference.You may very well be right,but I just don't have a clue as to how the members of the selection committee would look at things.
Then there is also the CAA south situation:4 teams could go from that division if W&M defeats JMU and doesn't get past Richmond.Both of those teams would be under consideration along with VU and The Dukes.

Elon and Furman could end up at 9-3,while Wofford could finish at 8-3.If they win out,that would clear things up somewhat because Furman would then be 8-4.

[Syntax Error]

... I don't know if UNH at 1-2 over their last three and 8-3 overall would get in before any 3 loss team from the Southern Conference.You may very well be right,but I just don't have a clue as to how the members of the selection committee would look at things.End of season performance has been mentioned as important.

[rcny46]

There is also the CAA south situation.JMU and VU are virtually assured of a spot while W&M and Richmond could both conclude their seasons with 3 losses each and get in before anyone from the northern division.It's amazing that there are only two games left in the regular season and we still aren't clear on how things will play out.I guess that's part of the reason I enthusiastically follow this level of college football.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

His post had nothing to do with Cosgrove......it had to do with conference affiliation. If Maine can't get a playoff bid going 9-3 (6-2 in the CAA).......then why even be in an expensive Southern based conference???xconfusedx Most of our recruits are from PA/NJ and North.......I really don't think that they sign with Maine because we play a bunch of Virginia schools. My guess is that they are more interested in Maine's recent string of FBS opponents. xthumbsupx

But I betcha that quite a few of them sign with Maine because of the strength of the CAA. Do you seriously not agree with that?

Just curious, what travel friendlier group of schools do you think would help Maine attract the same level of player as today?

FTR, I am very much of the opinion that the overall strength of the CAA helps all CAA North schools recruit. And that the exposure provided by games in the Mid-Atlantic helps recruit those players out of PA, NY and NJ.

And I saw first hand this weekend at Villanova, how important the games in the Mid-Atlantic are. I've met a few fathers of players from NJ and PA this season. This Saturday, multiple family members were in attendance, folks who haven't made trips to URI, NU or to Durham. The games at the CAA South schools, three of which BTW aren't located in Virginia, are closer and easier to travel to for these players family and friends. That has to make it easier for a player to chose to play in Orono.

[mainejeff]

But I betcha that quite a few of them sign with Maine because of the strength of the CAA. Do you seriously not agree with that?

I seriously don't agree with that. I know that you love the CAA though and that is fine......maybe UNH will get a full membership invite. xthumbsupx


Just curious, what travel friendlier group of schools do you think would help Maine attract the same level of player as today?

No conference as of today......but Maine will attract the same level of player that they now attract. I've never seen Maine sign a player that was recruited to a CAA South school with the possible exception of Towson. xthumbsupx


FTR, I am very much of the opinion that the overall strength of the CAA helps all CAA North schools recruit. And that the exposure provided by games in the Mid-Atlantic helps recruit those players out of PA, NY and NJ.

The strength and exposure helps.......but I believe that a Maine/UMass game will still be televised even if both were in another conference. xthumbsupx


And I saw first hand this weekend at Villanova, how important the games in the Mid-Atlantic are. I've met a few fathers of players from NJ and PA this season. This Saturday, multiple family members were in attendance, folks who haven't made trips to URI, NU or to Durham. The games at the CAA South schools, three of which BTW aren't located in Virginia, are closer and easier to travel to for these players family and friends. That has to make it easier for a player to chose to play in Orono.

Albany and Stony Brook......Villanova and Hofstra.......take your pick.......both of those groupings of schools are in recruiting areas for Maine.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I seriously don't agree with that. I know that you love the CAA though and that is fine......maybe UNH will get a full membership invite. xthumbsupx

I love the CAA Football conference. And from conversations with player's parents and folks at UNH, I definitely think that the opportunity to play in the CAA is a recruiting tool for UNH.

I like the challenge of the CAA knowing that when you do make the playoffs, you have a chance to go deep. I'll take fewer bids with that opportunity over more bids with mostly one and done. Also, the quality of the CAA schools provide games that I'm always willing to drive from CT to watch.


No conference as of today......but Maine will attract the same level of player that they now attract. I've never seen Maine sign a player that was recruited to a CAA South school with the possible exception of Towson. xthumbsupx

I guess that's where things differ for UNH because I have seen UNH recruit and sign players that were recruited by CAA South schools. I have very serious reservations that UNH can continue to recruit the current level of player if they aren't in the CAA for football.



The strength and exposure helps.......but I believe that a Maine/UMass game will still be televised even if both were in another conference. xthumbsupx

It will be televised in New Engalnd, but I'm not sure you'll get the Mid-Atlantic exposure needed to reach those HS kids you want to recruit.



Albany and Stony Brook......Villanova and Hofstra.......take your pick.......both of those groupings of schools are in recruiting areas for Maine.

Games at Villanova, Delaware and Towson are very close to recruiting areas for UNH. And trips to JMU, Richmond and W&M are shorter than a trip to Durham for many. For example, we have two true freshmen from Maryland on the team. Their families love the games at the VA schools as do most of the PA and NJ families.

BTW, I don't think you'll see Villanova on the Maine schedule in your preferred conference. Do you think a game at Monmouth every other year will provide Maine with the exposure they need in PA and NJ without any games at Villanova, Delaware or Towson?

UNH is different than Maine especially with approximately 50% out of state (and rising) enrollment. I think my alma mater is looking to be a different institution than Maine. Not saying that is correct, but the lack of funding from the State of NH has driven this policy change. And I know being in the CAA is very good for the football program and frankly I don't want to see what happens if we're not part of the CAA unless there is some kind of split within the CAA that has JMU, ODU, GA State move into a new affiliation with like minded schools with higher aspirations. In that case Towson, Hofstra and Northeastern would be available to align with Albany, UNH and Maine. UMass and Delaware would have decisions to make.

[mainejeff]

UNH is different than Maine especially with approximately 50% out of state (and rising) enrollment. I think my alma mater is looking to be a different institution than Maine. Not saying that is correct, but the lack of funding from the State of NH has driven this policy change. And I know being in the CAA is very good for the football program and frankly I don't want to see what happens if we're not part of the CAA unless there is some kind of split within the CAA that has JMU, ODU, GA State move into a new affiliation with like minded schools with higher aspirations. In that case Towson, Hofstra and Northeastern would be available to align with Albany, UNH and Maine. UMass and Delaware would have decisions to make.

I think that you essentially hit it on the head. Maine and UNH are very different in terms of enrollment and academic philosophy. Maine is a true public university in the mold of UMass and URI.......while UNH is more in line with Delaware and Vermont. These philosophies affect academic stature no doubt......but as long as taxpayers are supporting the University of Maine system, I have no problem with UMaine being a notch below UNH, UVM and Delaware academically......the UMaine system's priority is to educate Mainers and make higher education available to those that have the ability and desire to achieve a higher education.

As far as football goes.......do you think that it would be a good idea to place Georgia State in the "North"???