The Playoff Scenarios - The Breakdown We Are Used To!

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:

The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs by decree of the Ivy school presidents.; - The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game on Dec. 16, so only second place teams and below are playoff eligible. -The does not have an automatic bid, but both Cal Poly and Southern Utah are playoff eligible. The five-team Big South Conference’s teams are eligible for the playoffs, but the league does not have an automatic bid. The MAAC, NEC, Great West Conference and PFL are also eligible for the playoffs, but do not have an automatic bid.

Below, take a look at the prospects of I-AA teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes heading into the last two weeks of the regular season. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the 16-team field, as determined by Me, and not by current top 25 rank or potential playoff seeds. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances.

1. James Madison (8-1, 6-0 CAA)
The Games: W&M (11/15), at Towson (11/22)

Outlook: The Dukes are in the playoffs – but with a win at Towson they get a autobid. The #1 seed is theirs to loose.

2. Weber State (8-2, 6-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Idaho State (11/8), E. Washington (11/22)

Outlook: Leading the big sky and in great shape, a tough game at E. Washington but with a win over Montana they will be headed to the playoffs with one more win – loose twice an you are out. Winning out puts them in a top 4 seed.


3. Appalachian State (7-2, 5-0 Southern)
The Games: at UTC (11/8), Elon (11/15), at Western Carolina (11/22)

Outlook: The Mountaineers are in if they win 2 of the last 3, win out and they get a Top 2 seed – they will need if they hope to reach Chattanooga again.

4. Montana (8-1, 4-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Portland State (11/8), Idaho State (11/15), Montana St. (11/22)

Outlook: With their only loss to top ranked Weber State, Montana looks to be the 2 team from the big sky – however if they win out they could grab a Top 4 seed.


5. Northern Iowa (7-2, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: MO St (11/8), at Indiana St (11/15), at S. Utah (11/22)


Outlook: A 9-2 regular season record looks to be a lock with only and a potential top 4 seed but a down year in the MVC could lead to no seed at all.


6. South Carolina State (7-2. 5-0 MEAC)
The Games: Howard (11/6), at Morgan St (11/15), at NC A&T (11/22)

Outlook: It looks as if SCSt has this bid all wrapped up, their upcoming opponents make them a lock but anything is possible.


7. Richmond (6-3, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: at Hofstra (11/8), Delaware (11/15), R. Island (11/22

Outlook: The Spiders should be in good shape but must win out, based on the opponents I think they are looking good.

8. New Hampshire (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at Villanova (11/8), UMASS (11/15), at Maine (11/22)

Outlook: N Hampshire appears to be in but will need to avoid 3 losses, of the CAA teams, their schedule looks the weakest – until the last 3 weeks, lose 1 okay, lose twice and they may be in trouble.


9. Elon (7-2, 5-1 Southern)
The Games: Western Carolina (11/8), at ASU (11/15), at Liberty (11/22)

Outlook: Elon slides in ahead of some other SoCon Teams. The reason is the remaining schedule , I believe the Phoenix can beat both Liberty and Western, so a lost to ASU will not hurt, a win could give them the Autobid.


10. . Villanova (6-2, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: N. Hampshire (11/8), Towson (11/15), at Delaware (11/22)

Outlook: Wow the CAA has so many possibilities but Villanova looks to be a lock. If they win this week, they can close in on a bid. Losing one still puts them in the field.


11. Wofford (6-2, 4-1 Southern)
The Games: Citadel (11/8), at Samford (11/15), Furman (11/22)

Outlook: Wofford had a tough loss, but this is a GREAT team, but now comes a very tough stretch, win 2 of 3 and you are in. However, this schedule looks very difficult to navigate.

12. Colgate (7-2, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Lehigh (11/8), Holy Cross (11/22)

Outlook: The showdown with Holy Cross will determine the outcome of the Patriot, win two and you are in!!

13 Northwestern State (6-3, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: at Central Ark (11/8), McNeese St (11/15), at SFA (11/22)

Outlook: Thanks to Central Ark for being playoff ineligible – this conference race is a bit of a mess – no matter NWSTN St has the inside track – the McNeese St game should provide the winner.


14. Southern Illinois (6-2, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: W. Ill (11/8), SDSt (11/15), at Illinois St (11/22)

Outlook: The MVC is not having a great year, but S. Ill still can make the playoffs by winning out, a loss could leave them without a playoff berth.

15. Tennessee State (7-2, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: Eastern Ill (11/8), at Jacksonville St (11/15), at Murray St (11/22)

Outlook: The last of the Autobids is from the OVC and that will be the only bid this conference will receive, right now Tenn State has the inside track, but some interesting games forthcoming.

16. Layfayette (6-2, 2-1 Patriot)
The Games: At Bucknell (11/8), Holy Cross (11/15), Lehigh (11/22)

Outlook: I am beginning to like the looks of this conference and I feel that Layfayette can win out – and stealing a bid from the CAA, MVC or SoCon, remember 05'.

17. Western Illinois (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: at S. Ill (11/8), Illinois St (11/15), Youngstown St (11/22)

Outlook: They must win out to stay in the hunt.


18. Cal Poly (6-1, 2-0 Great West)
The Games: NC Central (11/8), UC Davis (11/15), at Wisconsin (11/22)

Outlook: I am not liking Cal Poly’s chances at the moment - not sure why.


19. Holy Cross (5-3, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: Fordham (11/8), Layfayette (11/15), at Colgate (11/22)

Outlook: The toughest remaining schedule in the Patriot puts their chances at the bottom, however winning out – puts them in the playoffs.

20. McNeese State (5-3, 2-2 Southland)
The Games: SFA (11/8), at N’western St (11/15), at Central Ark (11/22)

Outlook: Still alive for the title, but winning out is a must.

21. Massachussets (6-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: Maine (11/8), at N. Hampshire (11/15), Hofstra (11/22)

Outlook: The best of the rest in the CAA is UMASS – I believe they can win out and will have to, otherwise they watch from home.

22. Furman (7-3, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: Ga Southern (11/15), at Wofford (11/22)

Outlook: Two monster games remain for Furman – but they can win and if they do they will get into the playoffs. This is perhaps the most dangerous team on the bubble.

23. Eastern Kentucky (6-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: Murray St (11/15), at Tenn-Martin (11/22)

Outlook: First EKU needs to win out and second they need some help!

24. Northern Arizona (6-3, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Montana St (11/8), at E. Washington (11/15)

Outlook: I believe that is will be difficult for N. Arizona to win the last two games but they can certainly do so – an at large bid is within reach.

25. Tennessee Martin (7-2, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: At Auburn (11/8), at SE MO St (11/15), EKU (11/22)

Outlook: They are still alive for the AB – but things don’t look so good.

26. Bethune Cookman (6-2, 3-2 MEAC)
The Games: at Hampton (11/8), Howard (11/15), Florida A&M (11/22)

Outlook: Still with an outside chance – but must win each of the remaining games.

27. Maine (6-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: At UMASS (11/8), at R. Island (11/15), N. Hampshire (11/22)

Outlook: Simple win out and you are in – the schedule is not in Maine’s favor.

28. William & Mary (6-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: Northeastern (11/8), at JMU (11/15), Richmond (11/22)

Outlook: Just like Maine , they must win out – not going to happen!

29. South Dakota State (5-4, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: Ill St (11/8), at S. Ill (11/15), at NDSt (11/22)

Outlook: The Jackrabbits will stay in the discussion for one more week as they still could win the AB.

30. Liberty (7-2, 2-0 Big South)
The Games: at VMI (11/8), Gardner Webb (11/15), Elon (11/22)

Outlook: The loss last week should be the backbreaker – but a win in the final 3 could keep them in discussions – they need lots of help!

31. Praire View (7-1, 5-1 SWAC)
The Games: at Ala A&M, (11/8), Alcorn St (11/15)

Outlook: Everyone needs to lose multiple times

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Colgate, A10: JMU, Big Sky: Weber State, Southland: N’wstern State, Southern: ASU, Gateway: Northern Iowa, MEAC: SCSt, OVC: Tenn State

At-large: Elon, Layfayette, Wofford, S. Illinois, Montana, N. Hampshire, Richmond, and Villanova.

Seeds: Northern Iowa, JMU, Weber State, Appalachain State.

Bracket I: Elon at No. 1 JMU; Layfayette at Villanova;
N. Hampshire at No. 4 N. Iowa; Richmond at Colgate

Bracket II: Tenn State at No. 2 ASU; SCSt at Wofford ;
N’wstern State at No. 3 Weber State; S. Illinois at Montana.

[LehighFan11]

PL is NOT getting an auto-bid

[LehighFan11]

And if Cal Poly beats UC Davis they are in.

[mcveyrl]

PL is NOT getting an auto-bid

PL ALWAYS gets an auto-bid (assuming you meant Patriot League).

Also, Richmond ends the year with W&M, not URI.

[LehighFan11]

Sorry, At-Large.

[Go...gate]

Last time Richmond came to Hamilton was 1983, in November. Yes, it snowed. A lot.

We won, too.

[PaladinFan]

Last time Richmond came to Hamilton was 1983, in November. Yes, it snowed. A lot.

We won, too.

Thanks for winning. I thought I'd look back on this season and see a quality win for Furman over Delaware. Turns out the nice win the Paladins had over the Raiders will probably end up being more impressive.

[skinny_uncle]

5. Northern Iowa (7-2, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: MO St (11/8), at Indiana St (11/15), at S. Utah (11/22)


Outlook: A 9-2 regular season record looks to be a lock with only and a potential top 4 seed but a down year in the MVC could lead to no seed at all.





14. Southern Illinois (6-2, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: W. Ill (11/8), SDSt (11/15), at Illinois St (11/22)

Outlook: The MVC is not having a great year, but S. Ill still can make the playoffs by winning out, a loss could leave them without a playoff berth.


In regards to UNI, winning out would make them 10-2. Sorry to nitpick.
I think SIU would make it at 8-3, although I think they will win out and make that a moot point.

[Tribe Head]

Go Apps
I am sure you spent alot of time on this BUT:

W&M TRIBE is 6-2, 4-1 CAA. Win out (doubtful) they might get a seed. Win 2of 3 their in. Otherwise their out.

[tribe_pride]

Good job but just some help with differences.

I don't believe JMU automatically gets the autobid with a win over Towson (they are in so no difference) but if they lose to W&M and W&M wins out, I'd assume the Tribe gets it assuming Nova loses one more game (not likely scenario but possible). Not sure of the tiebreaker rule if Nova wins out and W&M wins out or if JMU and UNH tie with 1 conference loss.

Somebody else said it but Richmond's 11/22 game is against W&M not URI.

Also, W&M is 6-2, 4-1, not 6-3, 3-2 and has a good chance to get in with 2-1 record over last 3. Not saying it's going to happen, just saying they could.

Edit: Damn beaten to it.

[Appguy]

Whats with the Cal Poly hating?, theyre top 5 IMO, no reason to think theyl lose to NC Central or UC Davis and I expct them to give Wisconsin a good game.

[OL FU]

If, If If, Furman wins out, I think it will make it tough to get two PL teams ( of course it depends on how the other leagues finish out) in the playoffs. Furman winning out and Wofford and Elon finishing with 3 losses would give the SoCon three legit at large teams and the FU victory at Colgate would have to be given a lot of weight in whether to give an at-large to another PL team over a SoCon possibilityxnodx


with that said, there are a lot of ifs in that scenario:)

[Dukie95]

Good job but just some help with differences.

I don't believe JMU automatically gets the autobid with a win over Towson (they are in so no difference) but if they lose to W&M and W&M wins out, I'd assume the Tribe gets it assuming Nova loses one more game (not likely scenario but possible).

You're right. If W&M wins out, they'll get the autobid if Nova should lose again, but...

since that was written from the JMU perspective of what they need to do...it should have read like this:

JMU gets the autobid with a win over W&M AND a UNH loss. (If UNH should win the remainder of their games, JMU would then get the autobid with a win over Towson)

The W&M/JMU game is actually a really big game. I think JMU is treating like the conference championship game.

[Go Apps]

Thanks for all the inside info - will try to do better next week when things become more clear - but it was a lot to writeup so cut me some slack:)

[tribe_pride]

You're right. If W&M wins out, they'll get the autobid if Nova should lose again, but...

since that was written from the JMU perspective of what they need to do...it should have read like this:

JMU gets the autobid with a win over W&M AND a UNH loss. (If UNH should win the remainder of their games, JMU would then get the autobid with a win over Towson)

The W&M/JMU game is actually a really big game. I think JMU is treating like the conference championship game.

JMU is in. No need to take that game seriously. JMU should try to remember 2004. No need to win the conference championship or beat W&M in the second to last week of the season.

[OL FU]

Thanks for all the inside info - will try to do better next week when things become more clear - but it was a lot to writeup so cut me some slack:)

Comments should be looked at as a compliment. That means that people were intrigued enough by the post to read it and think about itxthumbsupx

[WrenFGun]

I'd probably have Richmond much lower than William & Mary as far as their chances of making the tournament go. They're going to need to beat W&M on the road if they want to get in over W&M. As a result, you have to like the Tribe's chances.

Additionally, if Cal Poly beats UC Davis, have to imagine they're in.

[catatac]

Correction... I think. You stated that Weber is out if they lose their last two games... that's only tru if UM wins out, which is definitely possible but not a given with contests against PSU, ISO and the MSU brawl to end the season. Unless UM wins out, Weber wins the Big Sky autobid regardless of winning 2, 1, or zero of their last two.

[Dukie95]

JMU is in. No need to take that game seriously. JMU should try to remember 2004. No need to win the conference championship or beat W&M in the second to last week of the season.

Thanks for the advice. :) They're more likely to remember '06 and '07 when they were sent on tough road games. They're out for that #1 seed.

[tribe_pride]

Thanks for all the inside info - will try to do better next week when things become more clear - but it was a lot to writeup so cut me some slack:)


Comments should be looked at as a compliment. That means that people were intrigued enough by the post to read it and think about itxthumbsupx

Yeah. Definitely impressed you went through all of this and I just wanted to help you out because I can't believe anyone can get through all of this without a little help especially with 3 weeks left in the season. Now with 1 week left, you better be perfect or there will be hell to pay. ;)

Great Job.

[Go Apps]

I will do better next week - assuming the right teams lose!

[Go Apps]

By the way who has the list of this years selection committee?

[Retro]

As far as the SLC goes, If 2 teams win out be it Mcneese, NWST, Nicholls or Texas state, 2 teams would get in before 2 Patriot league teams that is if SIU beats WIU or SIU loses 2 as well as some CAA teams lose 2 of 3 left since several play each other... Umass and Maine will knock one out of contention.

Cal-Poly will definitely get in with 2 of 3 wins from remaining games.

[tingly]

Not sure if this is the right committee, [EDIT: aaand it wasn't]

I could see Poly being left out if they lose to Davis, but win the rest. It'd be controversial, but arguable.

[danefan]

Committee can be found on pages 8 and 9 of the 2008 Division I Football Championship Handbook:

http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2008/1_football_handbook.pdf

[RabidRabbit]

Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:

The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs by decree of the Ivy school presidents.; - The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game on Dec. 16, so only second place teams and below are playoff eligible. -The Great West does not have an automatic bid, but Cal Poly, UC-Davis and Southern Utah are playoff eligible. The five-team Big South Conference’s teams are eligible for the playoffs, but the league does not have an automatic bid. The NEC, and PFL are also eligible for the playoffs, but do not have an automatic bid, and don't play a strong enough schedule to qualify.

Below, take a look at the prospects of I-AA teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes heading into the last two weeks of the regular season. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the 16-team field, as determined by Me, and not by current top 25 rank or potential playoff seeds. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances.

1. James Madison (8-1, 6-0 CAA)
The Games: W&M (11/15), at Towson (11/22)

Outlook: The Dukes are in the playoffs – but with a win at Towson they get a autobid. The #1 seed is theirs to loose.

2. Weber State (8-2, 6-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Idaho State (11/8), E. Washington (11/22)

Outlook: Leading the big sky and in great shape, a tough game at E. Washington but with a win over Montana they will be headed to the playoffs with one more win – loose twice an you are out. Winning out puts them in a top 4 seed.


3. Appalachian State (7-2, 5-0 Southern)
The Games: at UTC (11/8), Elon (11/15), at Western Carolina (11/22)

Outlook: The Mountaineers are in if they win 2 of the last 3, win out and they get a Top 2 seed – they will need if they hope to reach Chattanooga again.

4. Montana (8-1, 4-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Portland State (11/8), Idaho State (11/15), Montana St. (11/22)

Outlook: With their only loss to top ranked Weber State, Montana looks to be the 2 team from the big sky – however if they win out they could grab a Top 4 seed.


5. Northern Iowa (7-2, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: MO St (11/8), at Indiana St (11/15), at S. Utah (11/22)


Outlook: A 9-2 regular season record looks to be a lock with only FCS loss to SIUand a potential top 4 seed but a down year in the MVC could lead to no seed at all.


6. South Carolina State (7-2. 5-0 MEAC)
The Games: Howard (11/6), at Morgan St (11/15), at NC A&T (11/22)

Outlook: It looks as if SCSt has this bid all wrapped up, their upcoming opponents make them a lock but anything is possible.


7. Richmond (6-3, 6-1 CAA) Lost to 'Nova, swap slots with 'Nova
The Games: at Hofstra (11/8), Delaware (11/15), R. Island (11/22

Outlook: The Spiders should be in good shape but must win out, based on the opponents I think they are looking good.

8. New Hampshire (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at Villanova (11/8), UMASS (11/15), at Maine (11/22)

Outlook: N Hampshire appears to be in but will need to avoid 3 losses, of the CAA teams, their schedule looks the weakest – until the last 3 weeks, lose 1 okay, lose twice and they may be in trouble.


9. Elon (7-2, 5-1 Southern)
The Games: Western Carolina (11/8), at ASU (11/15), at Liberty (11/22)

Outlook: Elon slides in ahead of some other SoCon Teams. The reason is the remaining schedule , I believe the Phoenix can beat both Liberty and Western, so a lost to ASU will not hurt, a win could give them the Autobid.


10. . Villanova (6-2, 4-1 CAA) Swap up to #7
The Games: N. Hampshire (11/8), Towson (11/15), at Delaware (11/22)

Outlook: Wow the CAA has so many possibilities but Villanova looks to be a lock. If they win this week, they can close in on a bid. Losing one still puts them in the field.


11. Wofford (6-2, 4-1 Southern)
The Games: Citadel (11/8), at Samford (11/15), Furman (11/22)

Outlook: Wofford had a tough loss, but this is a GREAT team, but now comes a very tough stretch, win 2 of 3 and you are in. However, this schedule looks very difficult to navigate.

12. Colgate (7-2, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Lehigh (11/8), Holy Cross (11/22)

Outlook: The showdown with Holy Cross will determine the outcome of the Patriot, win two and you are in!!

13 Northwestern State (6-3, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: at Central Ark (11/8), McNeese St (11/15), at SFA (11/22)

Outlook: Thanks to Central Ark for being playoff ineligible – this conference race is a bit of a mess – no matter NWSTN St has the inside track – the McNeese St game should provide the winner.


14. Southern Illinois (6-2, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: W. Ill (11/8), SDSt (11/15), at Illinois St (11/22)

Outlook: The MVC is not having a great year, but S. Ill still can make the playoffs by winning out, a loss (would likely)could leave them without a playoff berth as they have a non-counter game vs UND.

15. Tennessee State (7-2, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: Eastern Ill (11/8), at Jacksonville St (11/15), at Murray St (11/22)

Outlook: The last of the Autobids is from the OVC and that will be the only bid this conference will receive, right now Tenn State has the inside track, but some interesting games forthcoming.

16. Layfayette (6-2, 2-1 Patriot)
The Games: At Bucknell (11/8), Holy Cross (11/15), Lehigh (11/22)

Outlook: I am beginning to like the looks of this conference and I feel that Layfayette can win out – and stealing a bid from the CAA, MVC or SoCon, remember 05'.

17. Western Illinois (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: at S. Ill (11/8), Illinois St (11/15), Youngstown St (11/22)

Outlook: They must win out to stay in the hunt and with non-counter Quincy, likely left home with only 7 D-I wins.


18. Cal Poly (6-1, 2-0 Great West)
The Games: NC Central (11/8), UC Davis (11/15), at Wisconsin (11/22)

Outlook: I am not liking Cal Poly’s chances at the moment - not sure why.Poly is a VERY STRONG contender, and should be up in top ten. IF (HUGE IF, they beat Wisconsin, they get seed.


19. Holy Cross (5-3, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: Fordham (11/8), Layfayette (11/15), at Colgate (11/22)

Outlook: The toughest remaining schedule in the Patriot puts their chances at the bottom, however winning out – puts them in the playoffs.

20. McNeese State (5-3, 2-2 Southland)
The Games: SFA (11/8), at N’western St (11/15), at Central Ark (11/22)

Outlook: Still alive for the title, but winning out is a must.

21. Massachussets (6-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: Maine (11/8), at N. Hampshire (11/15), Hofstra (11/22)

Outlook: The best of the rest in the CAA is UMASS – I believe they can win out and will have to, otherwise they watch from home.

22. Furman (7-3, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: Ga Southern (11/15), at Wofford (11/22)

Outlook: Two monster games remain for Furman – but they can win and if they do they will get into the playoffs. This is perhaps the most dangerous team on the bubble.

23. Eastern Kentucky (6-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: Murray St (11/15), at Tenn-Martin (11/22)

Outlook: First EKU needs to win out and second they need some help!

24. Northern Arizona (6-3, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Montana St (11/8), at E. Washington (11/15)

Outlook: I believe that is will be difficult for N. Arizona to win the last two games but they can certainly do so – an at large bid is within reach.

25. Tennessee Martin (7-2, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: At Auburn (11/8), at SE MO St (11/15), EKU (11/22) Two non-counters mean only auto-bid gets them in, and they need TN ST to lose again, while Skyhawks FCS win out.

Outlook: They are still alive for the AB – but things don’t look so good.

26. Bethune Cookman (6-2, 3-2 MEAC)
The Games: at Hampton (11/8), Howard (11/15), Florida A&M (11/22)

Outlook: Still with an outside chance – but must win each of the remaining games.

27. Maine (6-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: At UMASS (11/8), at R. Island (11/15), N. Hampshire (11/22)

Outlook: Simple win out and you are in – the schedule is not in Maine’s favor.

28. William & Mary (6-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: Northeastern (11/8), at JMU (11/15), Richmond (11/22)

Outlook: Just like Maine , they must win out – not going to happen!

29. South Dakota State (5-4, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: Ill St (11/8), at S. Ill (11/15), at NDSt (11/22)

Outlook: The Jackrabbits will stay in the discussion for one more week as they still could win the AB. Rabbits are solidly the #3 in the MoValley, about even with SIU. Jacks must win out, but if do, with 8 FCS wins, and no loses to teams outside this list, they'll choose UNI's co-champ as the 2nd team out of MVFC.

30. Liberty (7-2, 2-0 Big South)
The Games: at VMI (11/8), Gardner Webb (11/15), Elon (11/22)

Outlook: The loss last week should be the backbreaker – but a win in the final 3 could keep them in discussions – they need lots of help!

31. Praire View (7-1, 5-1 SWAC)
The Games: at Ala A&M, (11/8), Alcorn St (11/15)

Outlook: Everyone needs to lose multiple times

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Colgate, A10: JMU, Big Sky: Weber State, Southland: N’wstern State, Southern: ASU, Gateway: Northern Iowa, MEAC: SCSt, OVC: Tenn State

At-large: Elon, Layfayette, Wofford, S. Illinois, Montana, N. Hampshire, Richmond, and Villanova.

Seeds: Northern Iowa, JMU, Weber State, Appalachain State.

Bracket I: Elon at No. 1 JMU; Layfayette at Villanova;
N. Hampshire at No. 4 N. Iowa; Richmond at Colgate

Bracket II: Tenn State at No. 2 ASU; SCSt at Wofford ;
N’wstern State at No. 3 Weber State; S. Illinois at Montana.

Go App - Nice work up, I added comments within.

[Native]

Whats with the Cal Poly hating?, theyre top 5 IMO, no reason to think theyl lose to NC Central or UC Davis and I expct them to give Wisconsin a good game.

xnodx xnodx xnodx

[AlphaSigMD]

Go Apps
I am sure you spent alot of time on this BUT:

W&M TRIBE is 6-2, 4-1 CAA. Win out (doubtful) they might get a seed. Win 2of 3 their in. Otherwise their out.

Good call, I noticed the same thing when I read the column. I was waiting to see who commented first.

However, Rep points to both you and OP because I really like this version of the playoff picture. I think that Tony Moss was the one who started this format back sportsnetwork. Excellent post Overall!

[Syntax Error]

I think that Tony Moss was the one who started this format back sportsnetwork.It was Coulson at College Sporting News.

Nice post except the Cal Poly ommission.

[UNHWildCats]

If UNH and JMU finish tied at 7-1 UNH gets the auto. It would go down to the point system which UNH would win 11-8 with the 2 points for FBS win and JMU not earning a point for the NC Central win

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

If UNH and JMU finish tied at 7-1 UNH gets the auto. It would go down to the point system which UNH would win 11-8 with the 2 points for FBS win and JMU not earning a point for the NC Central win


Ok you've doing really well at the old "horse before the cart" thing for a couple weeks now....BUT UNH is 3 wins away from worring about any point systemxnodx

[UNHWildCats]

Ok you've doing really well at the old "horse before the cart" thing for a couple weeks now....BUT UNH is 3 wins away from worring about any point systemxnodx
the thread is about scenerios, and that is a scenerio xrulesx

[Stang Fever]

My question and I see it has been raise more than once... WHY IS CAL POLY so LOW?? why rational lead you to put us somewhere around 21?? Is that your ranking on probability of wining out and making it to the playoffs, or is that your ranking and we just wont make it into the playoffs???

[rcny46]

Ok you've doing really well at the old "horse before the cart" thing for a couple weeks now....BUT UNH is 3 wins away from worring about any point systemxnodx


I'm glad someone finally brought that up.With all the playoff scenarios flying around involving UNH,I always have that realization in the back of my mind.

[Tribe4SF]

If UNH and JMU finish tied at 7-1 UNH gets the auto. It would go down to the point system which UNH would win 11-8 with the 2 points for FBS win and JMU not earning a point for the NC Central win


I believe NC Central is in their second year of transition, so that game will count for JMU.

Another scenario at 7-1 would be UNH, JMU and W&M. W&M would win that one on head-to-head.

[th0m]

Yes NC Central counts. UNH fans If I were you I wouldn't worry about any points, but more about the Villanova, UMass, Maine stretch.

[Montana_Mojo]

My question and I see it has been raise more than once... WHY IS CAL POLY so LOW?? why rational lead you to put us somewhere around 21?? Is that your ranking on probability of wining out and making it to the playoffs, or is that your ranking and we just wont make it into the playoffs???


Part of the reason is that CP hasn't played as many games. They're only playing ten games this season. They had their game against McNeese canceled due to the hurricane in Lake Charles. Also, they don't play in a strong conference and have played a weak schedule since early September.

But I think Poly deserves a spot because they proved their worth by beating an FBS team. And they'll get another chance against Wisconsin. If CP gets in, I think they'll be one of the last teams in, despite their ranking.

[Montana_Mojo]

Also, there's something else I'm unclear about.

Central Arkansas is in position to win the Southland Conference, yet is ineligible for a playoff berth. If they win the Southland Conference title as a team ineligible for the playoffs, does the second place team in the Southland still get an automatic bid? That could be significant in determining the playoff field, which is why I ask.

[appstate1998]

Part of the reason is that CP hasn't played as many games. They had their game against McNeese canceled due to the hurricane in Lake Charles.

But I think Poly deserves a spot because they proved their worth by beating an FBS team. And they'll get another chance against Wisconsin.

I'm not knocking Cal Poly but using the argument that they proved their worth by beating an FBS school by 2 points does nothing for me when that FBS school is one of the worst in all of College Football....

[Montana_Mojo]

I'm not knocking Cal Poly but using the argument that they proved their worth by beating an FBS school by 2 points does nothing for me when that FBS school is one of the worst in all of College Football....


That is true. But Cal Poly has no bad losses, and has done nothing to prove that they don't belong in the playoff field. All they've done is kill teams on their schedule. It's too bad that that game against McNeese was canceled, a game I think they would have won. I would hate to see them left out because of that.

And beating an FBS team is more than some other playoff contenders have on their resume. Even if it was a low ranked FBS team, it's still considered a quality win by FCS standards, unless your standard is beating Michigan.

[appstate1998]

That is true. But Cal Poly has no bad losses, and has done nothing to prove that they don't belong in the playoff field. All they've done is kill teams on their schedule. It's too bad that that game against McNeese was canceled, a game I think they would have won. I would hate to see them left out because of that.

And beating an FBS team is more than some other playoff contenders have on their resume. Even if it was a low ranked FBS team, it's still considered a quality win by FCS standards, unless your standard is beating Michigan.


I agree they have had a great year and as it is now I think they should be in and have no problem with their ranking, but I think Wofford's loss to SC is more impressive than the Cal Poly last second win over SDS. I also think their loss to Montana is more impressive so I'm not being biased lol

[whoanellie]

? #9 Elon to JMU?
i don't get it.
Elon is 4-0 on the road.
http://s62.photobucket.com/albums/h88/leftygolfr326/?action=view&current=2007_0130downloadfirst0036.jpg

[UNHWildCats]

I believe NC Central is in their second year of transition, so that game will count for JMU.

Another scenario at 7-1 would be UNH, JMU and W&M. W&M would win that one on head-to-head.


Yes NC Central counts. UNH fans If I were you I wouldn't worry about any points, but more about the Villanova, UMass, Maine stretch.
im not saying they dont count as a Div I win for JMU but under tie breaking scenerios the CAA awards points for wins (1 point for a win vs FCS opponents from most conferences, Independents and Great West are excluded, 2 points for FBS wins and -1 for losses to sub Div I teams).

Under this scoring system to determine a tie breaker, JMU would get no credit for beating NC Central, an FCS Independent.

[th0m]

Ok, makes sense. Still, we control our own fate, and you don't ;)

[Pauly LB]

Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:

The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs by decree of the Ivy school presidents.; - The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game on Dec. 16, so only second place teams and below are playoff eligible. -The does not have an automatic bid, but both Cal Poly and Southern Utah are playoff eligible. The five-team Big South Conference’s teams are eligible for the playoffs, but the league does not have an automatic bid. The MAAC, NEC, Great West Conference and PFL are also eligible for the playoffs, but do not have an automatic bid.

Below, take a look at the prospects of I-AA teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes heading into the last two weeks of the regular season. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the 16-team field, as determined by Me, and not by current top 25 rank or potential playoff seeds. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances.

1. James Madison (8-1, 6-0 CAA)
The Games: W&M (11/15), at Towson (11/22)

Outlook: The Dukes are in the playoffs – but with a win at Towson they get a autobid. The #1 seed is theirs to loose.

2. Weber State (8-2, 6-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Idaho State (11/8), E. Washington (11/22)

Outlook: Leading the big sky and in great shape, a tough game at E. Washington but with a win over Montana they will be headed to the playoffs with one more win – loose twice an you are out. Winning out puts them in a top 4 seed.


3. Appalachian State (7-2, 5-0 Southern)
The Games: at UTC (11/8), Elon (11/15), at Western Carolina (11/22)

Outlook: The Mountaineers are in if they win 2 of the last 3, win out and they get a Top 2 seed – they will need if they hope to reach Chattanooga again.

4. Montana (8-1, 4-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Portland State (11/8), Idaho State (11/15), Montana St. (11/22)

Outlook: With their only loss to top ranked Weber State, Montana looks to be the 2 team from the big sky – however if they win out they could grab a Top 4 seed.


5. Northern Iowa (7-2, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: MO St (11/8), at Indiana St (11/15), at S. Utah (11/22)


Outlook: A 9-2 regular season record looks to be a lock with only and a potential top 4 seed but a down year in the MVC could lead to no seed at all.


6. South Carolina State (7-2. 5-0 MEAC)
The Games: Howard (11/6), at Morgan St (11/15), at NC A&T (11/22)

Outlook: It looks as if SCSt has this bid all wrapped up, their upcoming opponents make them a lock but anything is possible.


7. Richmond (6-3, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: at Hofstra (11/8), Delaware (11/15), R. Island (11/22

Outlook: The Spiders should be in good shape but must win out, based on the opponents I think they are looking good.

8. New Hampshire (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at Villanova (11/8), UMASS (11/15), at Maine (11/22)

Outlook: N Hampshire appears to be in but will need to avoid 3 losses, of the CAA teams, their schedule looks the weakest – until the last 3 weeks, lose 1 okay, lose twice and they may be in trouble.


9. Elon (7-2, 5-1 Southern)
The Games: Western Carolina (11/8), at ASU (11/15), at Liberty (11/22)

Outlook: Elon slides in ahead of some other SoCon Teams. The reason is the remaining schedule , I believe the Phoenix can beat both Liberty and Western, so a lost to ASU will not hurt, a win could give them the Autobid.


10. . Villanova (6-2, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: N. Hampshire (11/8), Towson (11/15), at Delaware (11/22)

Outlook: Wow the CAA has so many possibilities but Villanova looks to be a lock. If they win this week, they can close in on a bid. Losing one still puts them in the field.


11. Wofford (6-2, 4-1 Southern)
The Games: Citadel (11/8), at Samford (11/15), Furman (11/22)

Outlook: Wofford had a tough loss, but this is a GREAT team, but now comes a very tough stretch, win 2 of 3 and you are in. However, this schedule looks very difficult to navigate.

12. Colgate (7-2, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Lehigh (11/8), Holy Cross (11/22)

Outlook: The showdown with Holy Cross will determine the outcome of the Patriot, win two and you are in!!

13 Northwestern State (6-3, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: at Central Ark (11/8), McNeese St (11/15), at SFA (11/22)

Outlook: Thanks to Central Ark for being playoff ineligible – this conference race is a bit of a mess – no matter NWSTN St has the inside track – the McNeese St game should provide the winner.


14. Southern Illinois (6-2, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: W. Ill (11/8), SDSt (11/15), at Illinois St (11/22)

Outlook: The MVC is not having a great year, but S. Ill still can make the playoffs by winning out, a loss could leave them without a playoff berth.

15. Tennessee State (7-2, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: Eastern Ill (11/8), at Jacksonville St (11/15), at Murray St (11/22)

Outlook: The last of the Autobids is from the OVC and that will be the only bid this conference will receive, right now Tenn State has the inside track, but some interesting games forthcoming.

16. Layfayette (6-2, 2-1 Patriot)
The Games: At Bucknell (11/8), Holy Cross (11/15), Lehigh (11/22)

Outlook: I am beginning to like the looks of this conference and I feel that Layfayette can win out – and stealing a bid from the CAA, MVC or SoCon, remember 05'.

17. Western Illinois (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: at S. Ill (11/8), Illinois St (11/15), Youngstown St (11/22)

Outlook: They must win out to stay in the hunt.


18. Cal Poly (6-1, 2-0 Great West)
The Games: NC Central (11/8), UC Davis (11/15), at Wisconsin (11/22)

Outlook: I am not liking Cal Poly’s chances at the moment - not sure why.


19. Holy Cross (5-3, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: Fordham (11/8), Layfayette (11/15), at Colgate (11/22)

Outlook: The toughest remaining schedule in the Patriot puts their chances at the bottom, however winning out – puts them in the playoffs.

20. McNeese State (5-3, 2-2 Southland)
The Games: SFA (11/8), at N’western St (11/15), at Central Ark (11/22)

Outlook: Still alive for the title, but winning out is a must.

21. Massachussets (6-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: Maine (11/8), at N. Hampshire (11/15), Hofstra (11/22)

Outlook: The best of the rest in the CAA is UMASS – I believe they can win out and will have to, otherwise they watch from home.

22. Furman (7-3, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: Ga Southern (11/15), at Wofford (11/22)

Outlook: Two monster games remain for Furman – but they can win and if they do they will get into the playoffs. This is perhaps the most dangerous team on the bubble.

23. Eastern Kentucky (6-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: Murray St (11/15), at Tenn-Martin (11/22)

Outlook: First EKU needs to win out and second they need some help!

24. Northern Arizona (6-3, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Montana St (11/8), at E. Washington (11/15)

Outlook: I believe that is will be difficult for N. Arizona to win the last two games but they can certainly do so – an at large bid is within reach.

25. Tennessee Martin (7-2, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: At Auburn (11/8), at SE MO St (11/15), EKU (11/22)

Outlook: They are still alive for the AB – but things don’t look so good.

26. Bethune Cookman (6-2, 3-2 MEAC)
The Games: at Hampton (11/8), Howard (11/15), Florida A&M (11/22)

Outlook: Still with an outside chance – but must win each of the remaining games.

27. Maine (6-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: At UMASS (11/8), at R. Island (11/15), N. Hampshire (11/22)

Outlook: Simple win out and you are in – the schedule is not in Maine’s favor.

28. William & Mary (6-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: Northeastern (11/8), at JMU (11/15), Richmond (11/22)

Outlook: Just like Maine , they must win out – not going to happen!

29. South Dakota State (5-4, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: Ill St (11/8), at S. Ill (11/15), at NDSt (11/22)

Outlook: The Jackrabbits will stay in the discussion for one more week as they still could win the AB.

30. Liberty (7-2, 2-0 Big South)
The Games: at VMI (11/8), Gardner Webb (11/15), Elon (11/22)

Outlook: The loss last week should be the backbreaker – but a win in the final 3 could keep them in discussions – they need lots of help!

31. Praire View (7-1, 5-1 SWAC)
The Games: at Ala A&M, (11/8), Alcorn St (11/15)

Outlook: Everyone needs to lose multiple times

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Colgate, A10: JMU, Big Sky: Weber State, Southland: N’wstern State, Southern: ASU, Gateway: Northern Iowa, MEAC: SCSt, OVC: Tenn State

At-large: Elon, Layfayette, Wofford, S. Illinois, Montana, N. Hampshire, Richmond, and Villanova.

Seeds: Northern Iowa, JMU, Weber State, Appalachain State.

Bracket I: Elon at No. 1 JMU; Layfayette at Villanova;
N. Hampshire at No. 4 N. Iowa; Richmond at Colgate

Bracket II: Tenn State at No. 2 ASU; SCSt at Wofford ;
N’wstern State at No. 3 Weber State; S. Illinois at Montana.


Northwestern State at #13 and Cal Poly at #18 in your scenario -- evidently you must have forgotten that Cal Poly took Northwestern to the woodshed on September 20th on their field 52 - 18 !!! And quite frankly it could have been even more lopsided. Cal Poly pulled their starters late in the third quarter.

[UNHWildCats]

Ok, makes sense. Still, we control our own fate, and you don't ;)
i know, just simply pointing out a scenerio.

[appfan2008]

cal poly is going to the playoffs over a pl at large every day of the week and twice on sunday... mark my words...

[LehighFan11]

cal poly is going to the playoffs over a pl at large every day of the week and twice on sunday... mark my words...

Cal Poly vs. Colgate or Lafayette, wow Poly by 40.

[MaroonDoom]

Looks goods. Hopefully EKU does get some help, if not I see TSU out in the first round.

[Go Apps]

Agreed on you accounts but the list is a likelihood of making the playoffs - it has little to do with rankings - so yes for the moment N'western state has a better chance of making the playoffs than Cal Poly - they can get the Autobid - Cal Poly cannot - a Southland Team will stay ahead of Cal Poly for now

[LehighFan11]

Agreed on you accounts but the list is a likelihood of making the playoffs - it has little to do with rankings - so yes for the moment N'western state has a better chance of making the playoffs than Cal Poly - they can get the Autobid - Cal Poly cannot - a Southland Team will stay ahead of Cal Poly for now

I disagree. Northwestern has 0 shot at an at-large bid so they must get the auto bid in a conference that has like 5 teams still in the running. Cal Poly just needs to be NC Central and UC Davis at home. UC Davis is a very solid football team but Poly will still be 20 point favorites at home. Poly goes 2-0 in those games and they are in.

[WrenFGun]

Agreed on you accounts but the list is a likelihood of making the playoffs - it has little to do with rankings - so yes for the moment N'western state has a better chance of making the playoffs than Cal Poly - they can get the Autobid - Cal Poly cannot - a Southland Team will stay ahead of Cal Poly for now

By all accounts, however, Cal Poly has an "easier" chance of reaching At-Large Likelihood than NW. St has to reach the autobid. Theoretically, a Cal Poly win over UC Davis gives them a playoff berth. There is no one win that Northwestern State can get that will say the same thing, with so much conference time left to go.

[WrenFGun]

I disagree. Northwestern has 0 shot at an at-large bid so they must get the auto bid in a conference that has like 5 teams still in the running. Cal Poly just needs to be NC Central and UC Davis at home. UC Davis is a very solid football team but Poly will still be 20 point favorites at home. Poly goes 2-0 in those games and they are in.

You took the words straight out of my mouth (and also, straight from the post below you, heh. ;))

[yosef1969]

put Cal Poly in over Lafayette and rest is plausible

[Pitz]

Also, there's something else I'm unclear about.

Central Arkansas is in position to win the Southland Conference, yet is ineligible for a playoff berth. If they win the Southland Conference title as a team ineligible for the playoffs, does the second place team in the Southland still get an automatic bid? That could be significant in determining the playoff field, which is why I ask.

It is my understanding that as far as the NCAA is concerned from a championship perspective, Central Arkansas is not a competing member of the Southland Conference. So while the Southland as a conference itself may recognize UCA as its champion, UCA is essentially invisible to the NCAA, thus giving the auto-bid to the best "eligible" team in the conference.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here.

[Retro]

It is my understanding that as far as the NCAA is concerned from a championship perspective, Central Arkansas is not a competing member of the Southland Conference. So while the Southland as a conference itself may recognize UCA as its champion, UCA is essentially invisible to the NCAA, thus giving the auto-bid to the best "eligible" team in the conference.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here.

All games for UCA and againest UCA count as conference wins and losses.. The only difference is that they are ineligable for the NCAA playoffs this year (final year). If they win the title outright or share it, the next best team will go within the conference. xthumbsupx

[appfan2008]

the cau thing is stupid but it exactly what we have watched with ndsu and others the last few years...

[Saluki_man]

Go App - Nice work up, I added comments within.

I thought transitionals counted to the 7 D-1 wins? Or don't they coun't untill they have reached a certian year?

[RabidRabbit]

I thought transitionals counted to the 7 D-1 wins? Or don't they coun't untill they have reached a certian year?

USD, UND & Bryant are "non-counters" in this first year up. Every team transitioning from DII to DI have this their first year up.

[Saluki_man]

Thanks RabidRabbit for the clarification.

Are your guys ready to come to Carbondale next Saturday?

[ViennaSpider]

Last time Richmond came to Hamilton was 1983, in November. Yes, it snowed. A lot.

We won, too.

Richmond @ Colgate in December? I don't think so.