2008 Bracketology, Week 3

[TheValleyRaider]

Enough politics. I'm not one for electing today (I already voted by Absentee Ballot :D), so I think it's time for a little selecting

Bracketology returns for our 3rd go-round of the 2008 season. With but 3 weeks to go, the playoff picture may or may not be getting clearer. As always, these selections and brackets are set up with a mindset of if the season ended today

Even after taking the best methodology in the country first, I'd like to remind those on the outside this week that it doesn't take a lot of hope to see your position change with 3 weeks to go

To the picking....

Autobids:
Big Sky-Weber State
CAA-James Madison
MEAC-South Carolina State
MVFC-Southern Illinois*
OVC-Tennessee State^
Patriot-Colgate%
Southern-Appalachian State
Southland-Northwestern State
*-SIU is tied with UNI and SDSU all with 1 loss. Head to head, UNI beat SDSU and SIU beat UNI. Because it works out nicely like this, SIU gets the autobid
^-TSU, EKU and UTM all have 1 loss, but TSU gave that loss to EKU and UTM. They own the head to head tiebreaker with EKU and UTM still needing to play one another, giving TSU the autobid
%-Colgate and Holy Cross are tied at 3-0. Going down the standings, the next best tiebreaker is best opponent beaten. Wins over 2-1 Lafayette (Colgate) and 2-1 Lehigh (HC) cancel out, as do wins over Bucknell. That leaves Fordham, who Colgate beat and HC has yet to play. Colgate gets the autobid

Next, the At-Large bids. These are the next 8 from the GPI with a +1 to replace a team to be named at the end
The list of 8+1
1-Montana
2-Cal Poly
3-Richmond
4-Villanova
5-Northern Iowa
6-New Hampshire
7-Wofford
8-Massachusetts
+1-Elon
The +1 team is tough, next on the list was William & Mary (another CAA) and Elon. I took Elon and put them in place of UMass, mostly because I think 5 CAA is too many this year

So, to recap, your Field of 16
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Colgate
Elon
James Madison
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Northwestern State
Richmond
South Carolina State
Southern Illinois
Tennessee State
Villanova
Weber State
Wofford

[TheValleyRaider]

A reminder as we begin to bracket, The Field of 16:
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Colgate
Elon
James Madison
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Northwestern State
Richmond
South Carolina State
Southern Illinois
Tennessee State
Villanova
Weber State
Wofford

Seeds
The top 4 are seeded, most heavily weighed towards rankings
1-James Madison
2-Appalachian State
3-Weber State
4-Montana
JMU, then ASU seem pretty straightforward to me as #s 1 and 2. The 2 best teams in the 2 best conferences, and they even have a head-to-head game as a nice tiebreaker. Weber is still undefeated at the top of the Big Sky (against FCS opponents, at least) so they get #3. #4 goes to the Griz, mostly off their high ranking. UNH is probably one of the other teams in the conversation for a seed right now

Matchups
1st Round pairings are done by geography, with an eye towards seeding matchups if possible
James Madison with Elon
Appalachian State with Richmond
Weber State with Northwestern State
Montana with Cal Poly
Colgate with New Hampshire
Northern Iowa with Villanova
South Carolina State with Wofford
Southern Illinois with Tennessee State
The geography makes this one tough. SC State and Wofford was in-state, while Colgate-UNH was the far northeastern matchup. SIU and TSU were put together at the MVFC-OVC matchup. Weber and Montana were going to be matched with Cal Poly and NW State (local and Big Sky-SLC matchup), and I gave Weber the lower-rated team. JMU got Elon as the last team in. With what was left, I sent 3-loss Richmond to ASU, which then left Villanova with UNI

Home Games
These first round games are guesses based on bidding history and attendance. These are only guaranteed for the 1st round. All seeded teams are guaranteed home games as long as they are facing non-seeded or lower-seeded opponents if they so choose
James Madison hosts Elon
Appalachian State hosts Richmond
Weber State hosts Northwestern State
Montana hosts Cal Poly
New Hampshire hosts Colgate
Northern Iowa hosts Villanova
South Carolina State hosts Wofford
Tennessee State hosts Southern Illinois
This makes for some interesting hosts. Seeded teams are easy enough. UNH would likely outbid Colgate, and UNI is always a strong bidder. SC State and TSU are both ranked in the Top 15 in attendance, while their opponents Wofford and SIU are not known for bidding highly for games. Wofford, admittedly, is a much lesser known quantity on this front, but I'm betting more on SC State being able to put up the money

The brackets
The brackets are now set up, with matchups listed by the home team. Care is taken to try and seed as best as possible, though it can get hairy at times, especially if lower-ranked teams are hosting matchups
James Madison with Tennessee State
Appalachian State with South Carolina State
Weber State with New Hampshire
Montana with Northern Iowa
As always, this can get very difficult. JMU got the lowest rated 1st round matchup, ASU got the next (even if it sets up a possible SoCon showdown in the quarters). With Weber and Montana left, the lower-seeded Griz got the higher rated UNI-Nova matchup opposite them.

So here's your bracket

#1-James Madison
Elon

Tennessee State
Southern Illinois

#4-Montana
Cal Poly

Northern Iowa
Villanova

#2-Appalachian State
Richmond

South Carolina State
Wofford

#3-Weber State
Northwestern State

New Hampshire
Colgate

So there you have it. I'm not particularly fond of this bracket, but I wonder how much more movement in and out of the 16 you'll see by the end of the year. There definately appears to be a group of schools that have set themselves above the rest. 3 weeks left...

[crunifan]

May I ask why UNI is not in consideration for a seed in your eyes?

We are currently around 4th in the nation in most polls and have only lost two games (BYU and SIU, both on the road). If you say Montana gets a seed with their high ranking, why not UNI?

[mcveyrl]

Is there any way to avoid the Montana-CP rematch? What are the odds that the committee will try to avoid it and send CP to Weber?

[TheValleyRaider]

May I ask why UNI is not in consideration for a seed in your eyes?

We are currently around 4th in the nation in most polls and have only lost two games (BYU and SIU, both on the road). If you say Montana gets a seed with their high ranking, why not UNI?

#2 in your conference. I would be shocked if the committee seeded a 2nd place team without seeding the conference champion, especially when that conference champ won head-to-head. Win the Valley, get a seed xtwocentsx


Is there any way to avoid the Montana-CP rematch? What are the odds that the committee will try to avoid it and send CP to Weber?

I'd like to say they avoid the matchup, but I doubt it. Number 1, it's not very fair to Weber to get the higher seed, then have to face the far superior team (at least according to the various rankings). And number 2, due to the regionalization policy of the NCAA, it seems almost a given to me, sadly, that the the 2 Big Sky teams will be matched up with the SLC Champ and Cal Poly

[Go...gate]

IF Colgate were to win the PL, and IF they drew UNH, that would be a very tough matchup indeed. They murdered us a few years back when Jordan Scott was a Freshman.

[putter]

I hate this regionalization crap. If the NCAA can't make money on the playoffs from the broadcast rights from ESPN then that is their fault. If Montana wins out they would have lost 1 regular season game in 2 years and got the SoCon champ and the Great West champ (top 5 team) in the first round two years in a row. xrolleyesx

[siuham]

Maybe this year can be the undoing of the regional-ization rules for FCS just like every year is the undoing of the BCS system...ohwait.

:(

I put together a bracket Monday without going with the stupid regional rules, mostly.

SC State @ #1 JMU
UNH @ Wofford

Elon @ SIU
NW State @ #4 Weber State


Colgate @ #2 Appalachian State
Villanova @ Cal Poly

Richmond @ Montana
Tenn-Martin @ #3 UNI

[B&G]

I think SCSU gets sent to ASU and Wofford gets sent to Richmond in this scenario. I have no evidence to back it up... just a gut feeling.

[SeattleGriz]

So here's your bracket

#1-James Madison
Elon

Tennessee State
Southern Illinois

#4-Montana
Cal Poly

Northern Iowa
Villanova

#2-Appalachian State
Richmond

South Carolina State
Wofford

#3-Weber State
Northwestern State

New Hampshire


No sir, I don't like it! Get that Cal Poly out of there...and no swapping with Wofford either! Other than that, fantastic job!

[PaladinFan]

Do you think the committee would do something rational for once and send a western team to play a western team?

[JayJ79]

Maybe this year can be the undoing of the regional-ization rules for FCS just like every year is the undoing of the BCS system...ohwait.

:(

I put together a bracket Monday without going with the stupid regional rules, mostly.

SC State @ #1 JMU
UNH @ Wofford

Elon @ SIU
NW State @ #4 Weber State


Colgate @ #2 Appalachian State
Villanova @ Cal Poly

Richmond @ Montana
Tenn-Martin @ #3 UNI

Thanks for giving us the OVC team. It seems like you guys (SIU) always get them instead of us. But I suppose that's due to the fact that Carbondale is practically in the Ohio valley (as in, the river itself) so they get the OVC team due to the regionalization.

[Reign of Terrier]

No sir, I don't like it! Get that Cal Poly out of there...and no swapping with Wofford either! Other than that, fantastic job!

What? Scared?:D xsmiley_wix Just playin' with you

[griz&beer]

Maybe this year can be the undoing of the regional-ization rules for FCS just like every year is the undoing of the BCS system...ohwait.

:(

I put together a bracket Monday without going with the stupid regional rules, mostly.

SC State @ #1 JMU
UNH @ Wofford

Elon @ SIU
NW State @ #4 Weber State


Colgate @ #2 Appalachian State
Villanova @ Cal Poly

Richmond @ Montana
Tenn-Martin @ #3 UNI

This one looks good just switch UNI and Montana.xthumbsupx

[Reign of Terrier]

So here's your bracket

#1-James Madison
Elon

Tennessee State
Southern Illinois

#4-Montana
Cal Poly

Northern Iowa
Villanova

#2-Appalachian State
Richmond

South Carolina State
Wofford

#3-Weber State
Northwestern State

New Hampshire
Colgate



interesting match ups. Pending on how well Elon plays App I wouldn't be surprised about an upset there. Cal Poly and Richmond would be looking for revenge. Nova and UNI would be a good game.

[siuham]

This one looks good just switch UNI and Montana.xthumbsupx

Montana and Weber maybe, and in fact probably, but two BSC teams aren't going to be seeded over a 1 (fcs) loss UNI or SIU.

[Native]

Montana and Weber maybe, and in fact probably, but two BSC teams aren't going to be seeded over a 1 (fcs) loss UNI or SIU.

CAA xbowx xbowx
SOCON xbowx
GW xbowx
MV xlmaox xlmaox

[siuham]

CAA xbowx xbowx
SOCON xbowx
GW xbowx
MV xlmaox xlmaox

And people don't even notice the BSC because it's not worth mentioning?

Good try on the smack, but you seem to have forgotten to praise your own conference.

[GolfingGriz]

Montana and Weber maybe, and in fact probably, but two BSC teams aren't going to be seeded over a 1 (fcs) loss UNI or SIU.

Why not? I think that both Weber and Montana's resumes are better than both SIU and UNI. Weber is undefeated against the FCS, none of the other three are. Montana lost to the best team out of themselves, SIU, and UNI. Montana could have 11 wins, whereas the other three can only have 10. Montana also has the most impressive victory over the current third ranked team in Cal Poly. The only thing that UNI currently has on Montana is the current forth rank, which I don't agree with considering the last 4 weeks of play. Like UNI deservingly jumped Montana for number one last year, Montana should jump UNI this year.

[Houndawg]

And people don't even notice the BSC because it's not worth mentioning?

Good try on the smack, but you seem to have forgotten to praise your own conference.

It's smack, not fantasy.xnodx

[Silenoz]

Damn regionalization

[bpcats]

So here's your bracket

#1-James Madison
Elon

Tennessee State
Southern Illinois haven't seen Tennesse State play can't judge them

#4-MontanaCal Poly - Montana wins by 2 touchdowns

Northern Iowa
Villanova

#2-Appalachian State
Richmond

South Carolina State
Wofford

#3-Weber State
Northwestern State

New Hampshire
Colgate

So there you have it. I'm not particularly fond of this bracket, but I wonder how much more movement in and out of the 16 you'll see by the end of the year. There definately appears to be a group of schools that have set themselves above the rest. 3 weeks left...

Having Weber and Montana play against each other in the second round would happen with their regionalization deal. But to have either team draw Cal Poly right of the gate in the first round would be very harsh.

[siuham]

Why not? I think that both Weber and Montana's resumes are better than both SIU and UNI. Weber is undefeated against the FCS, none of the other three are. Montana lost to the best team out of themselves, SIU, and UNI. Montana could have 11 wins, whereas the other three can only have 10. Montana also has the most impressive victory over the current third ranked team in Cal Poly. The only thing that UNI currently has on Montana is the current forth rank, which I don't agree with considering the last 4 weeks of play. Like UNI deservingly jumped Montana for number one last year, Montana should jump UNI this year.

Here's the my problem with Weber.

Outside of conference play, they've played absolutely nobody. They didn't even play an FCS game outside of their conference. Playing an NAIA and a D-II is worth about as much as being Dayton (oh ho ho...)

Their only argument for a seed is based on beating Montana. You can't take the 'any given saturday' thought out of Weber with that being their only 'good' win. Even so, it was a conference game, and at their field. That means a lot.

Montana has a good win out of conference (Cal Poly) and an 'okay' win OOC (UC-Davis.) Their only loss is to Weber away. Again, AGS.

UNI has an 'okay' win OOC in South Dakota, and will (probably) have another okay win this week against Southern Utah. Their only loss is to SIU away. AGS factor.

SIU has an okay win against Hampton and North Dakota.

None of the above four wins/projected wins are better than the Cal Poly victory for Montana, but all four are better than Weber State's absolute 0-spot in OOC play. That's why I see Weber losing out on the seed to Montana. Same as SIU would lose out on a seed to UNI/Montana even having won the MVFC (if all teams win out.)

See kids? Logic.

Edit: This is not smack in any way shape or form. I hadn't even really put a lot of thought into it until I actually started thinking hard about it last night sometime.

[Chi Panther]

A reminder as we begin to bracket, The Field of 16:
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Colgate
Elon
James Madison
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Northwestern State
Richmond
South Carolina State
Southern Illinois
Tennessee State
Villanova
Weber State
Wofford

Seeds
The top 4 are seeded, most heavily weighed towards rankings
1-James Madison
2-Appalachian State
3-Weber State
4-Montana
JMU, then ASU seem pretty straightforward to me as #s 1 and 2. The 2 best teams in the 2 best conferences, and they even have a head-to-head game as a nice tiebreaker. Weber is still undefeated at the top of the Big Sky (against FCS opponents, at least) so they get #3. #4 goes to the Griz, mostly off their high ranking. UNH is probably one of the other teams in the conversation for a seed right now

Matchups
1st Round pairings are done by geography, with an eye towards seeding matchups if possible
James Madison with Elon
Appalachian State with Richmond
Weber State with Northwestern State
Montana with Cal Poly
Colgate with New Hampshire
Northern Iowa with Villanova
South Carolina State with Wofford
Southern Illinois with Tennessee State
The geography makes this one tough. SC State and Wofford was in-state, while Colgate-UNH was the far northeastern matchup. SIU and TSU were put together at the MVFC-OVC matchup. Weber and Montana were going to be matched with Cal Poly and NW State (local and Big Sky-SLC matchup), and I gave Weber the lower-rated team. JMU got Elon as the last team in. With what was left, I sent 3-loss Richmond to ASU, which then left Villanova with UNI

Home Games
These first round games are guesses based on bidding history and attendance. These are only guaranteed for the 1st round. All seeded teams are guaranteed home games as long as they are facing non-seeded or lower-seeded opponents if they so choose
James Madison hosts Elon
Appalachian State hosts Richmond
Weber State hosts Northwestern State
Montana hosts Cal Poly
New Hampshire hosts Colgate
Northern Iowa hosts Villanova
South Carolina State hosts Wofford
Tennessee State hosts Southern Illinois
This makes for some interesting hosts. Seeded teams are easy enough. UNH would likely outbid Colgate, and UNI is always a strong bidder. SC State and TSU are both ranked in the Top 15 in attendance, while their opponents Wofford and SIU are not known for bidding highly for games. Wofford, admittedly, is a much lesser known quantity on this front, but I'm betting more on SC State being able to put up the money

The brackets
The brackets are now set up, with matchups listed by the home team. Care is taken to try and seed as best as possible, though it can get hairy at times, especially if lower-ranked teams are hosting matchups
James Madison with Tennessee State
Appalachian State with South Carolina State
Weber State with New Hampshire
Montana with Northern Iowa
As always, this can get very difficult. JMU got the lowest rated 1st round matchup, ASU got the next (even if it sets up a possible SoCon showdown in the quarters). With Weber and Montana left, the lower-seeded Griz got the higher rated UNI-Nova matchup opposite them.

So here's your bracket

#1-James Madison
Elon

Tennessee State
Southern Illinois

#4-Montana
Cal Poly

Northern Iowa
Villanova

#2-Appalachian State
Richmond

South Carolina State
Wofford

#3-Weber State
Northwestern State

New Hampshire
Colgate

So there you have it. I'm not particularly fond of this bracket, but I wonder how much more movement in and out of the 16 you'll see by the end of the year. There definately appears to be a group of schools that have set themselves above the rest. 3 weeks left...

Bracket 3 seems the weakest....

[WrenFGun]

Here's the my problem with Weber.

Outside of conference play, they've played absolutely nobody. They didn't even play an FCS game outside of their conference. Playing an NAIA and a D-II is worth about as much as being Dayton (oh ho ho...)

Their only argument for a seed is based on beating Montana. You can't take the 'any given saturday' thought out of Weber with that being their only 'good' win. Even so, it was a conference game, and at their field. That means a lot.

Montana has a good win out of conference (Cal Poly) and an 'okay' win OOC (UC-Davis.) Their only loss is to Weber away. Again, AGS.

UNI has an 'okay' win OOC in South Dakota, and will (probably) have another okay win this week against Southern Utah. Their only loss is to SIU away. AGS factor.

SIU has an okay win against Hampton and North Dakota.

None of the above four wins/projected wins are better than the Cal Poly victory for Montana, but all four are better than Weber State's absolute 0-spot in OOC play. That's why I see Weber losing out on the seed to Montana. Same as SIU would lose out on a seed to UNI/Montana even having won the MVFC (if all teams win out.)

See kids? Logic.

Edit: This is not smack in any way shape or form. I hadn't even really put a lot of thought into it until I actually started thinking hard about it last night sometime.

Looking at these resumes, New Hampshire should absolutely be in consideration for a seed. Their FBS OOC win over Army is better than anyone else's OOC win.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

UNI has an 'okay' win OOC in South Dakota, and will (probably) have another okay win this week against Southern Utah. Their only loss is to SIU away. AGS factor.

SIU has an okay win against Hampton and North Dakota.

ham, I don't think you would be able to count USD or UND as good wins or even OK wins since they count as d2 on FCS schedules this year for their first year of the move up.

[siuham]

ham, I don't think you would be able to count USD or UND as good wins or even OK wins since they count as d2 on FCS schedules this year for their first year of the move up.

Yeah, I didn't necessarily mean they were good wins, but I do consider them better than a 1-5 D-II and a 2-7 NAIA. In any light, 1 > 0.

[JayJ79]

UNI has an 'okay' win OOC in South Dakota, and will (probably) have another okay win this week against Southern Utah. Their only loss is to SIU away. AGS factor.

UNI also has a win over Nicholls State. nothing overly impressive with that. but it's a slight step above UND/USD wins.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Yeah, I didn't necessarily mean they were good wins, but I do consider them better than a 1-5 D-II and a 2-7 NAIA. In any light, 1 > 0.

Yeah I see where you're going but the committee won't use them anyway I don't think...

[siuham]

UNI also has a win over Nicholls State. nothing overly impressive with that. but it's a slight step above UND/USD wins.

Ah, I forgot about that. So UNI might have three OOC D-I wins with one of those being transitional.

UAH: They won't be used, but I still value them more than a really bad D-II team.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Ah, I forgot about that. So UNI might have three OOC D-I wins with one of those being transitional.

UAH: They won't be used, but I still value them more than a really bad D-II team.

True dat and I agree with the logic. FWIW on the Montana side, our d2 (Central Washington) is comparable to UND or USD this year in that they are a top 4 or 5 team in d2 and have a legit shot at the d2 national title.

[ericsaid]

There's no way Richmond would be sent to App for a first round game. App at the number two seed would get Tennesse State or South Carolina State for sure.

Wouldn't they?

[Reign of Terrier]

#1-James Madison
Elon(upset)
Tennessee State
Southern Illinois
#4-Montana
Cal Poly
Northern Iowa
Villanova
#2-Appalachian State
Richmond
South Carolina State
Wofford
#3-Weber State
Northwestern State
New Hampshire
Colgate

[ursus arctos horribilis]

There's no way Richmond would be sent to App for a first round game. App at the number two seed would get Tennesse State or South Carolina State for sure.

Wouldn't they?

What are you basing that on? TVR is basing his match ups on regionalization I believe so I'll assume he thought that through.

[AlphaSigMD]

Wow...CAA teams must be getting really tired of coming to Kidd-Brewer. Could this be another year that ASU has to go through 3 CAA teams in order to get the championship.

I don't mind playing CAA teams (at the Rock, or even better at the Rock Jr - a.k.a. Chattanooga) but I'd kinda like to see a game against somebody new rather than Richmond.

Montana, Cal Poly, Weber, UNH, Villanova would all be good interesting potential match ups (hopefully not in the 1st round).

[Native]

And people don't even notice the BSC because it's not worth mentioning?

Good try on the smack, but you seem to have forgotten to praise your own conference.

Neither self aggrandizement nor whining will change Big Sky performance on the field. Performance speaks for itself. The Big Sky is doing OK this year and has done well in the FCS/I-AA, making three or more appearances in the NC game in each of the past three decades and winning five national championships over the past 28 years.

[LehighFan11]

I really don't want to see a seed have to play very good team like Elon, Richmond, or Poly. If you get a seed, you should get he winner of PL, OVC, Southland, etc.

[GolfingGriz]

Here's the my problem with Weber.

Outside of conference play, they've played absolutely nobody. They didn't even play an FCS game outside of their conference. Playing an NAIA and a D-II is worth about as much as being Dayton (oh ho ho...)

Their only argument for a seed is based on beating Montana. You can't take the 'any given saturday' thought out of Weber with that being their only 'good' win. Even so, it was a conference game, and at their field. That means a lot.

Montana has a good win out of conference (Cal Poly) and an 'okay' win OOC (UC-Davis.) Their only loss is to Weber away. Again, AGS.

UNI has an 'okay' win OOC in South Dakota, and will (probably) have another okay win this week against Southern Utah. Their only loss is to SIU away. AGS factor.

SIU has an okay win against Hampton and North Dakota.

None of the above four wins/projected wins are better than the Cal Poly victory for Montana, but all four are better than Weber State's absolute 0-spot in OOC play. That's why I see Weber losing out on the seed to Montana. Same as SIU would lose out on a seed to UNI/Montana even having won the MVFC (if all teams win out.)

See kids? Logic.

Edit: This is not smack in any way shape or form. I hadn't even really put a lot of thought into it until I actually started thinking hard about it last night sometime.

This is very good logic ham. I agree with most of what you said, but I struggle having Montana a seed over Weber because of the dominant win they had over us. If we played again I think we would win, but they dominated us on Oct. 4. A 17 point win over a very good team should be worth quite a bit. That being said, I still think that Montana has a more impressive resume than either of the MVC teams.

Another point I would like to make on behalf of Weber State is that they played their best against the best in the BSC. I view the top three teams other than Weber at this point as UM, NAU, and MSU. Weber beat those three teams by a combined 122-54. Very impressive and warrents a seed despite having an interesting OOC schedule.

[GolfingGriz]

I really don't want to see a seed have to play very good team like Elon, Richmond, or Poly. If you get a seed, you should get he winner of PL, OVC, Southland, etc.

Its regionilization. It just depends where the teams are located and it is very possible that a seeded Weber or Montana will have to play Poly in the first round.

[siuham]

True dat and I agree with the logic. FWIW on the Montana side, our d2 (Central Washington) is comparable to UND or USD this year in that they are a top 4 or 5 team in d2 and have a legit shot at the d2 national title.

/agree. More reasons Montana is looking like a sure-fire seed.


Neither self aggrandizement nor whining will change Big Sky performance on the field. Performance speaks for itself. The Big Sky is doing OK this year and has done well in the FCS/I-AA, making three or more appearances in the NC game in each of the past three decades and winning five national championships over the past 28 years.

Cute word, don't know why you're applying it only to me when I haven't been comparing the MVFC to the BSC at all. You were the one that took a shot at the MVFC when all I was doing was rationalizing why I believed Montana would get a seed over Weber and why UNI would get a seed before a 2nd BSC team.

If you want to compare, though, in terms of history, the MVFC has more NC's and just as many appearances. 6-3 to 5-4. :) This obviously means the MVFC is better than and will always be better than the BSC in everything ever. This includes Water Polo. But definitely not Lacrosse.

[siuham]

This is very good logic ham. I agree with most of what you said, but I struggle having Montana a seed over Weber because of the dominant win they had over us. If we played again I think we would win, but they dominated us on Oct. 4. A 17 point win over a very good team should be worth quite a bit. That being said, I still think that Montana has a more impressive resume than either of the MVC teams.

Another point I would like to make on behalf of Weber State is that they played their best against the best in the BSC. I view the top three teams other than Weber at this point as UM, NAU, and MSU. Weber beat those three teams by a combined 122-54. Very impressive and warrents a seed despite having an interesting OOC schedule.

I'll give you that. It's possible that the BSC could have Montana and Weber seeded over a single MVFC team being seeded, but I give it McCain's chance in Canada of happening.

Oh. I went there.

[GolfingGriz]

I'll give you that. It's possible that the BSC could have Montana and Weber seeded over a single MVFC team being seeded, but I give it McCain's chance in Canada of happening.

Oh. I went there.

If Montana and Weber win out I will guarentee that Montana will be a seed, and I'm 80% sure that Weber will too. I think that the BSC is stronger this year than before and will get rewarded in 3 weeks.

[siuham]

If Montana and Weber win out I will guarentee that Montana will be a seed, and I'm 80% sure that Weber will too. I think that the BSC is stronger this year than before and will get rewarded in 3 weeks.

If that happens I guarantee Montana gets a seed too.

But for Weber to get the other, they need UNI to lose to Southern Utah, MIssouri State, or Indiana State (better known as "3rd string week") I just don't see it happening barring a UNI dismantling.

[GolfingGriz]

If that happens I guarantee Montana gets a seed too.

But for Weber to get the other, they need UNI to lose to Southern Utah, MIssouri State, or Indiana State (better known as "3rd string week") I just don't see it happening barring a UNI dismantling.

Any team that can go undefeated in one of the top 4 conferences deserves a seed. I can tell that we will never agree, which is why I'm glad we have a playoff so that it wont matter if we agree or not.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Seed doesn't matter to me. The year we went to the championship no one expected it especially when we went on the road to beat then #1 New Hampshire and beat a very good Texas State team.

I would like to think UNI could get one, but if Montana wins out and Weber wins out I think they most likely both get seeded.

And I really don't want to think that far ahead as we still have 2 difficult games left (3 total) so we could tank and end up not in the playoffs altogether.

[siuham]

Any team that can go undefeated in one of the top 4 conferences deserves a seed. I can tell that we will never agree, which is why I'm glad we have a playoff so that it wont matter if we agree or not.

To be honest, when you have only one other team that will feasibly contend against you year in and year out, it's not much of a big deal. How often does the BSC have more than 2 play-off contenders?

Well, I can answer my own question: 2 times in 18 years for the BSC. 7 times for the MVFC one of those years with 4 teams in the play-offs.

Anyway, the conferences are basically equal this year. The top team from each should get a seed. Neither will get two.

[appfan2008]

as the number 2 seed in your bracket I really hope we dont host richmond... please send sc st or colgate or tsu our way instead!!!

otherwise looks great as always

[Khan4Cats]

Why is the Big Sky considered better than the MVFC?

Record against FCS schools non-conference:

Big Sky 4-4, plus 1-1 against transitionals.
MVFC 8-7, plus 2-0 against transitionals.

The Big Sky, as a conference, averaged less than 1 FCS non-conference game per school, and a couple of schools (Weber State being one of them, did not play any). Not only did every MVFC school play at least one FCS non-conference game, only Youngstown State did not play a non-conference game against a team from an auto-bid conference.

Sorry, Weber State's resume does NOT warrant a seed. Montana, absolutely. And don't give me the "we won the head to head". That has not been a criteria in the past: see Texas State #4 seed in 2005, Nicholls State on the road in round 1 despite the head-to-head win.

Right now I see JMU, ASU and Montana as locks for seeds if they win out. UNI has the next best shot at a seed, though should Cal-Poly win out, they jump the Panthers, same with UNH. I don't see SIU or Weber in the picture for seeds, without some turmoil happening ahead of them.

[Houndawg]

Why is the Big Sky considered better than the MVFC?

Record against FCS schools non-conference:

Big Sky 4-4, plus 1-1 against transitionals.
MVFC 8-7, plus 2-0 against transitionals.

The Big Sky, as a conference, averaged less than 1 FCS non-conference game per school, and a couple of schools (Weber State being one of them, did not play any). Not only did every MVFC school play at least one FCS non-conference game, only Youngstown State did not play a non-conference game against a team from an auto-bid conference.

Sorry, Weber State's resume does NOT warrant a seed. Montana, absolutely. And don't give me the "we won the head to head". That has not been a criteria in the past: see Texas State #4 seed in 2005, Nicholls State on the road in round 1 despite the head-to-head win.

Right now I see JMU, ASU and Montana as locks for seeds if they win out. UNI has the next best shot at a seed, though should Cal-Poly win out, they jump the Panthers, same with UNH. I don't see SIU or Weber in the picture for seeds, without some turmoil happening ahead of them.

Sure, easy for you to say.

:D

[colgate13]

IF Colgate were to win the PL, and IF they drew UNH, that would be a very tough matchup indeed. They murdered us a few years back when Jordan Scott was a Freshman.

I'd be ridiculously excited though because I'd go to the game!!!!!

[I Bleed Purple]

Just for argument's sake, when was the last time a major FCS conference team that goes undefeated in conference not get a seed?

More of a curiosity thing.

[WrenFGun]

I'm not sure I understand the BSC love either. With Northern Arizona falling off the map of late, where is the depth of this conference? Why is going through the conference close to undefeated really something to write home about? The CAA should have two seeds before the BSC gets two, and the MVFC should have at least a seed before the BSC gets two. Montana, to me, looks deserving of a seed presuming they win out, though it's tough to get it over a Weber team that beat them.

James Madison and Appalachian State are guarantees for seeds. The fourth spot would be UNH or 'Nova if they win out, then UNI or SIU if they win out, and then some consideration between Wofford, Weber and the others mentioned.

[Silenoz]

Why is the Big Sky considered better than the MVFC?

Record against FCS schools non-conference:

Big Sky 4-4, plus 1-1 against transitionals.
MVFC 8-7, plus 2-0 against transitionals.

The Big Sky, as a conference, averaged less than 1 FCS non-conference game per school, and a couple of schools (Weber State being one of them, did not play any). Not only did every MVFC school play at least one FCS non-conference game, only Youngstown State did not play a non-conference game against a team from an auto-bid conference.

Sorry, Weber State's resume does NOT warrant a seed. Montana, absolutely. And don't give me the "we won the head to head". That has not been a criteria in the past: see Texas State #4 seed in 2005, Nicholls State on the road in round 1 despite the head-to-head win.

Right now I see JMU, ASU and Montana as locks for seeds if they win out. UNI has the next best shot at a seed, though should Cal-Poly win out, they jump the Panthers, same with UNH. I don't see SIU or Weber in the picture for seeds, without some turmoil happening ahead of them.

We can only hope! Bring on NWS

[Houndawg]

Seed doesn't matter to me. The year we went to the championship no one expected it especially when we went on the road to beat then #1 New Hampshire and beat a very good Texas State team.

I would like to think UNI could get one, but if Montana wins out and Weber wins out I think they most likely both get seeded.

And I really don't want to think that far ahead as we still have 2 difficult games left (3 total) so we could tank and end up not in the playoffs altogether.


xrolleyesx

[ur2k]

If Richmond has to go to Boone in the first round, can we please at least make it a day game? xthumbsupx

[Native]

Why is the Big Sky considered better than the MVFC?

Record against FCS schools non-conference:

Big Sky 4-4, plus 1-1 against transitionals.
MVFC 8-7, plus 2-0 against transitionals.

The Big Sky, as a conference, averaged less than 1 FCS non-conference game per school, and a couple of schools (Weber State being one of them, did not play any). Not only did every MVFC school play at least one FCS non-conference game, only Youngstown State did not play a non-conference game against a team from an auto-bid conference.

Sorry, Weber State's resume does NOT warrant a seed. Montana, absolutely. And don't give me the "we won the head to head". That has not been a criteria in the past: see Texas State #4 seed in 2005, Nicholls State on the road in round 1 despite the head-to-head win.

Right now I see JMU, ASU and Montana as locks for seeds if they win out. UNI has the next best shot at a seed, though should Cal-Poly win out, they jump the Panthers, same with UNH. I don't see SIU or Weber in the picture for seeds, without some turmoil happening ahead of them.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion. Although I don't necessarily agree, I certainly understand and respect most of the arguments against a Weber seed on this thread. xnodx

But few if any of us are actual participants in the seeding commitee voting process. xnonox

Unless the wheels fall off of the Weber offense in these last two games, my guess is that Weber will get the #3 or #4 seed and play the first two playoff contests at home. xcoolx

If Weber gets the seed, I know that most of my Grizz neighbors will not whine or rationalize. xthumbsupx

If Weber does NOT get a seed, I will not whine about it. xrulesx I promise.

What about the rest of the posters on this thread? xpeacex

[appfan2008]

is jim donnan gonna be the one doing the selection show again? bc that was awful and he didnt know anything about the teams...

[beauvighn]

He's still trying to put marshall in the brackets xlolx

[Kymermosst]

I'm just curious...Why are UNH and Colgate paired together, while sending Villanova to UNI?

Colgate is significantly closer to Villanova (~240 miles) than to UNH (~345 miles).

I say switch 'Nova and UNH.

Still, as always, well done TVR!

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

I'm just curious...Why are UNH and Colgate paired together, while sending Villanova to UNI?

Colgate is significantly closer to Villanova (~240 miles) than to UNH (~345 miles).

I say switch 'Nova and UNH.

Still, as always, well done TVR!

Been there done that. I vote no.xrolleyesx

[Mountain Panther]

I'm just curious...Why are UNH and Colgate paired together, while sending Villanova to UNI?

Colgate is significantly closer to Villanova (~240 miles) than to UNH (~345 miles).

I say switch 'Nova and UNH.

Still, as always, well done TVR!

What?

None of those schools are close to UNI....just don't send us UNH.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

What?

None of those schools are close to UNI....just don't send us UNH.

I suspect you'll determine after Saturday that you would prefer UNH over VU...

[ericsaid]

After all of the region talk going on here, why did Wofford travel to Montana?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

After all of the region talk going on here, why did Wofford travel to Montana?

Because they matched up as many regional teams as they could and then the ones that had to fly it didn't make a lot of difference.

[ericsaid]

I believe it would make more since for Wofford or Richmond to travel to one another and App would get SC State or TN State. Would make more sense considering Spartanburg isn't that much farther for Richmond than it is to App.

Or give App Sc State and JMU TN State.

[Cincy App]

I believe it would make more since for Wofford or Richmond to travel to one another and App would get SC State or TN State. Would make more sense considering Spartanburg isn't that much farther for Richmond than it is to App.

Or give App Sc State and JMU TN State.

JMU will not play TN State since it is over the 400-mile cutoff for bus vs. fly - particularly when JMU would likely have other bus options like Elon. If TN State or UT-Martin win the OVC, they are almost a lock to play Southern Illinois.

When making pairings, the PSC will arrange as many bus trips as possible for first round matchups. Generally, 5 bus trip games are accomplished in the first round.

As stated earlier, once remaining teams are destined to fly, the NCAA is not concerned with how far - hence Wofford at Montana last year.

[Native]

Here's the my problem with Weber.

Outside of conference play, they've played absolutely nobody. [Weber Sagarin FCS rank #6, strength of schedule rank #9 among all FCS team, #1 among all BSC and MV teams.] They didn't even play an FCS game outside of their conference. [Played 2 FBS games.] Playing an NAIA and a D-II is worth about as much as being Dayton (oh ho ho...) [True!]

Their only argument for a seed is based on beating Montana [UM Sagarin rank #4, Northern Arizona #18, Montana State #30, et al], You can't take the 'any given saturday' thought out of Weber with that being their only 'good' win. Even so, it was a conference game, and at their field. That means a lot. [The "Any Given Saturday" concept works both ways. We should have lost at least one of those conference games if we are so mediocre, after all, "AGS"...]

Montana has a good win out of conference (Cal Poly [#8]) and an 'okay' win OOC (UC-Davis[#28].) Their only loss is to Weber away. Again, AGS.

UNI [Sagarin rank #14, behind #4 UM, #6 WSU and #8 CP, and just ahead of #18 Northern Arizona; UNI's strength of schedule ranks 13th among all 18 BSC and MV teams] has an 'okay' win OOC in South Dakota [#68, behind every Big Sky team except Idaho State], and will (probably) have another okay win this week against Southern Utah. Their only loss is to SIU away. AGS factor.

SIU [Sagarin rank #20, strength of schedule #16 out of 18 BSC and MV teams.]
has an okay win against Hampton [#86] and North Dakota [#71].

[SIU's "okay wins" were against teams ranked lower than every team in the Big Sky except Idaho State.]

None of the above four wins/projected wins are better than the Cal Poly victory for Montana, but all four are better than Weber State's absolute 0-spot in OOC play. That's why I see Weber losing out on the seed to Montana. Same as SIU would lose out on a seed to UNI/Montana even having won the MVFC (if all teams win out.)

See kids? Logic.

Edit: This is not smack in any way shape or form. I hadn't even really put a lot of thought into it until I actually started thinking hard about it last night sometime.

OK, Ham Fair enough. Maybe not smack, but certainly not logic or analysis. I understand your issues, however, like the subjective polls, your conclusions are based on unfounded assumptions and only those few data points which support the desired conclusion.

Sagarin is a better arbiter of strength of schedule, conference strength and team rating, because the data set is comprehensive and objectively selected. Sagarin's computer ranks Big Sky #3 and Missouri Valley #6 among all FCS conferences. Sagarin's computer applies the same analytical rule sets to all teams and does so without emotion or predetermined conclusions.

Logic? Maybe, but based on a limited data set and flawed assumptions. The evidence to support your proposition is not sufficient. The evidence against your proposition is overwhelming. Sorry Daddy. xsmhx

[TheValleyRaider]

I'm just curious...Why are UNH and Colgate paired together, while sending Villanova to UNI?

Colgate is significantly closer to Villanova (~240 miles) than to UNH (~345 miles).

I say switch 'Nova and UNH.

Still, as always, well done TVR!

I'm glad you asked. UNH_Alum already PMed me this question, and with his given permission, I'm reposting the message along with my response just so I'm not explaining my reasoning twice xthumbsupx

Slightly edited at UNH Alum's request

Hello my hockey school brother!

Villanova is over 100 miles closer to Colgate than UNH. Is the magic distance 400 miles for bus trips? Hamilton to Durham does fall into that range.

Villanova to Hamilton ==> 239 miles
Durham to Hamilton ==> 346 miles

If this set of teams were the reality, do you think the committee would opt for the closer match-up of 'Nova and Colgate? Do you think the outcome of this Saturday's game might determine it?

People don't have much knowledge of playoff history if they don't think Cal Poly isn't going to play a BSC team! And if they don't think league teams will meet in the Quarterfinals!

Oh, BTW, I too think UNH would outbid Colgate since I know we can count on getting close to 10K for the game. Of course, your alma mater could reach into that endowment pot and outbid us.

It'll be interesting to watch what happens:

If UMass comes out of the CAA North, then Colgate goes there for sure. Ditto for Holy Cross or Fordham, probably Lafayette and Lehigh as well.

If Maine comes out of the CAA North, then I'm not sure they get a home game. Their attendance track in November is not very good so I don't know how they'd bid. Thank gawd we have the 2005 experience to help us bid. Actually, only Holy Cross falls within the 400 mile range for Maine so that might put any other PL champ elsewhere.

If UNH comes out of the CAA North, do you think Lafayette and Lehigh would outbid UNH? I'm not sure HC or Fordham would.

I'm going to be in Florida so my selfish wish for our playoff opponent would be Bethune-Cookman or FAMU!! Oh well, that isn't happening!

Keep up the good work, love the Bracketology!!!!

I'm really running off UNH and Colgate being matched up in 2005 as my justification for putting the two together. The trip isn't that bad, and given it's within what appears to be the NCAA distance, I could see the Committee sticking the two most northeastern schools together. I would guess if it's between UNH and Nova for a Colgate matchup, they'd throw Nova into a "Mid-Atlantic/Southeast" pot and go with the two northern schools

I agree that if it's UMass out of the North, Colgate would go there (or HC as the case might be). If Lafayette or Lehigh (somehow) were to take the PL, then they'd be matched with Nova. Maine is tougher, because it's really out there

Lehigh might be able to outbid some people, but that's really it as far as PL bidding goes

Hope that answers your question xthumbsupx

[Cincy App]

Is the magic distance 400 miles for bus trips?

THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT
NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP AIR TRAVEL (per the "Football Championships Administration" online manual from the NCAA)

Drive/Fly. Participating institutions located within 400 miles for Division I and 500 miles for Divisions II and III of the competition site are required to travel via ground transportation rather than by air.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Is the magic distance 400 miles for bus trips?

THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT
NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP AIR TRAVEL (per the "Football Championships Administration" online manual from the NCAA)

Drive/Fly. Participating institutions located within 400 miles for Division I and 500 miles for Divisions II and III of the competition site are required to travel via ground transportation rather than by air.

I know for a fact that we flew to Spartanburg last December, and I am pretty sure we flew to Boone. Both trips were less than 400 miles. Does that mean we have to turn our win against Wofford back into the NCAA?

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

After all of the region talk going on here, why did Wofford travel to Montana?

Montana, SIU, UNI and McNeese were seeds IIRC.

Delaware-Delaware State was going to happen because the NCAA was sporting a tremendous woody for that game.

Fordham was sent to UMass ==> Regionalization
EIU was sent to SIU ==> Regionalization
JMU was sent to App ==> Regionalization
EWU was sent to McNeese ==> one of the closest opponents they could play (no intra-conference match-ups allowed in the first round)

We only have Richmond, EKU, UNH, and Wofford left. I suppose EKU is technically closer to Missoula than Wofford or Richmond, but they all would have been making a long trip. I guess technically because Wofford and Richmond are less than 400 miles apart, they should have met in the first round if regionalization was the overriding factor.

You can juggle around a bunch of teams (EIU to UNI instead of SIU, EWU to UNI instead of McNeese, Richmond to App instead of EKU (under 400 miles unlike EKU), EKU to SIU instead of Richmond, JMU to Wofford instead of App (under 400 miles), etc.), but I think you're still looking at someone from the Eastern Time Zone going to Missoula.

Another example of why I'd love to be a fly on the wall during the committee's session!! (FWIW, I was amazed when I saw UNH being sent to UNI. I thought that if we made the playoffs, we'd be going to App, Wofford, EKU, SIU or McNeese.)

You've got to recall that the majority of FCS schools are East of the Mississippi. With all the seeded teams last year from the FCS virtual West, it was almost guaranteed an Eastern team was traveling to Missoula. If projections hold true and App and JMU get seeds, then there will be more teams from the center part of the country available for travel West than last year.

[Cincy App]

I know for a fact that we flew to Spartanburg last December, and I am pretty sure we flew to Boone. Both trips were less than 400 miles. Does that mean we have to turn our win against Wofford back into the NCAA?

Ha Ha. It means that the NCAA only reimbursed Richmond for a portion of its expenses. In such case, the NCAA reimburses a school at the mileage rates used for ground travel.

[smcwildcat]

I suspect you'll determine after Saturday that you would prefer UNH over VU...


good one missed you in the playoffs last year?.... jkjk jp