11/3/08 Gridiron Power Index (GPI), James Madison at No. 1

[CSN-info]

http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/skins/andreas_01/img/GPI.JPG
http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php?blog=5&title=11-3-08-gridiron-power-index-gpi-james-m-1&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1
The Gridiron Power Index (GPI), the index ranking for the NCAA Division I FCS and a top indicator of at-large playoff selection continues with James Madison in the top spot again this week. No other team has been ranked No. 1 this year in the GPI.

The Colonial Athletic Association, the largest league in the FCS has eight teams in the top 25; the Southern Conference has five; the Missouri Valley Football Conference placed four; the Big Sky Conference has three; the Great West Football and the Southland Conferences have two each; and the Ivy League has one.

11/3/2008 GPI Top 25
1. James Madison (1.00)
2. Appalachian St (2.13)
3. Montana (3.88)
4T. Cal Poly (5.25)
4T. Richmond (5.25)
6. Villanova (5.50)
7. Weber St (7.00)
8. Northern Iowa (8.38)
9. New Hampshire (9.38)
10. Wofford (9.50)
11. Massachusetts (11.50)
12. William & Mary (11.75)
13. Elon (12.00)
14. S Illinois (13.75)
15. Furman (15.00)
16. Cent Arkansas (18.38)
17. Maine (18.50)
18. W Illinois (19.00)
19. Harvard (20.00)
20. McNeese St (20.25)
21. N Arizona (21.00)
22. Ga Southern (21.50)
23. UC Davis (25.00)
24. S Dakota St (25.25)
25. Delaware (27.00)

Conference Ranking:
Rank, League, Total Average
1. Colonial Athletic Association (22.07)
2. Southern Conference (27.96)
3. Big Sky Conference (31.23)
4. Southland Conference (32.30)
5. Great West Football Conference (32.63)
6. Missouri Valley Football Conference (36.93)
7. Ivy League (48.72)
8. Patriot League (48.99)
9. Big South Conference (49.86)
10. Ohio Valley Conference (50.96)
11. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (61.53)
12. Northeast Conference (66.32)
13. Southwestern Athletic Conference (70.80)
14. Pioneer Football League (75.14)
15. Independents (78.65)

[OL FU]

25. Delaware (27.00)

xeekx xeekx xeekx xeekx xeekx

Somebody better reprogram or check for keypunch errorsxeekx xeekx

[danefan]

Hahaha..

Delaware at 25.

[mcveyrl]

Does that mean that if Delaware wins out (with wins vs. Richmond and Villanova) that they'll make the playoffs?? Surely they'd move up to the top 16 or so...

[danefan]

31 Northeastern CAA

Another good one!

2-7 and #31.

[Syntax Error]

Delaware at 25.Strength of schedule. xnodx They were #29 last week.

The deal with the CAA is they have so many high ranked teams that it pumps their rating. Others pooh-pooh that fact but if all you play are top teams then your record could be bad, but if other conference teams played that schedule their record might be worse. SOS is not a joke.

[GannonFan]

Strength of schedule. xnodx They were #29 last week.

Considering that we still have Richmond and nova on the schedule I guess it's very likely then that UD will continue to move up the GPI ladder!!! Ah, the GPI, the poor man's AGS poll. Looking forward to beating the GPI as a playoff indicator once again this year - it's almost an annual thing anymore!!! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Syntax Error]

the GPI, the poor man's AGS poll.xnutsx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xnutsx

For those that understand it, it's like running up the score, the return is diminishing. SOS will take Delaware only so far.

[danefan]

Strength of schedule. xnodx They were #29 last week.

The deal with the CAA is they have so many high ranked teams that it pumps their rating. Others pooh-pooh that fact but if all you play are top teams then your record could be bad, but if other conference teams played that schedule their record might be worse. SOS is not a joke.

But then doesn't Delaware at 29 and Northeastern at 31, with 3 and 2 wins respecitively, indicate that the computer systems are placing too much emphasis on SOS and not enough on results? Seems like they are out of balance a bit.

SOS can only take you so far if you don't win.

[Syntax Error]

But then doesn't Delaware at 29 and Northeastern at 31, with 3 and 2 wins respecitively, indicate that the computer systems are placing too much emphasis on SOS and not enough on results? Seems like they are out of balance a bit...I don't know but maybe humans place not enough emphasis on SOS. Dayton is 7-1 but GPI #78.

[danefan]

I don't know but maybe humans place not enough emphasis on SOS. Dayton is 7-1 but GPI #78.

That's my point. Dayton's record of 7-1 should get them at about the same point as Delaware's record of 3-6, shouldn't it?

Winning with a weak schedule puts you 53 spots lower then losing with a strong schedule? That doesn't make much sense to me.

[OL FU]

But then doesn't Delaware at 29 and Northeastern at 31, with 3 and 2 wins respecitively, indicate that the computer systems are placing too much emphasis on SOS and not enough on results? Seems like they are out of balance a bit.

SOS can only take you so far if you don't win.

Play an FBS schedule, get your ass kicked for 12 games and be number 1. xlolx

[Syntax Error]

That's my point. Dayton's record of 7-1 should get them at about the same point as Delaware's record of 3-6, shouldn't it?
Winning with a weak schedule puts you 53 spots lower then losing with a strong schedule? That doesn't make much sense to me.My point was, what would Dayton's record be if they played Delaware's schedule.

[Syntax Error]

Play an FBS schedule, get your ass kicked for 12 games and be number 1. SOS can only take you so far.

[GannonFan]

xnutsx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xnutsx

For those that understand it, it's like running up the score, the return is diminishing. SOS will take Delaware only so far.

But if Delaware ends up beating Towson, and then losing to Richmond and nova, and still ends up in the top 25 of the GPI that will be a dark day indeed for the credibility of this ranking system. UD had absolutely zero offense and in my 37 years of watching Delaware football this is easily the worst Delaware team I've ever seen, but apparently I should take comfort in knowing that even a 4-8 UD team can most likely never fall out of the top 25 of the GPI ranking. xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx

[StonewallSpider]

Delware has only played one team with a sub .500 record, and their losses come from teams all in the top 17 and Maryland. I don't think top 25 is tht crazy.

[OL FU]

SOS can only take you so far.

You know me. i am not a GPI hater. But when the rankings are skewed, then why not just say "uh oh"xeekx

[danefan]

Delware has only played one team with a sub .500 record, and their losses come from teams all in the top 17 and Maryland. I don't think top 25 is tht crazy.

They are 3-6. How can a team at 3-6 be a top 25 team in any ranking/poll?

[mcveyrl]

Delware has only played one team with a sub .500 record, and their losses come from teams all in the top 17 and Maryland. I don't think top 25 is tht crazy.

If that was all you had to go on, then it wouldn't be THAT crazy, but as some UD fans have pointed out, there are real problems with the offense that would make it crazy.

[GannonFan]

Delware has only played one team with a sub .500 record, and their losses come from teams all in the top 17 and Maryland. I don't think top 25 is tht crazy.

And with Richmond and nova on the schedule in 2 of the last 3 weeks, I'm hoping UD might be able to climb up into the top 20 with 2 more losses!!! Go Hens!!! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

Imagine if the playoffs were expanded even more and if the GPI ever did become a real tool to pick the playoff teams. This could've been a playoff year for the Hens under those critieria!!! Viva the GPI!!!!!! :p :p :p :p :p :p

[AZGrizFan]

Play an FBS schedule, get your ass kicked for 12 games and be number 1. xlolx


Hell, SUU should have been #1 two years ago then. :)

[KAUMASS]

Guys,

First and foremost, GPI is a POWER ranking. It's like a reverse golf handicapp. The GPI tries to level the playing field without the record of a team sandbagging the ranking. If that makes sense to you, your probably as whacked out as I am.

Tennessee State is 7-2 and ranked #47 in the GPI. Delaware is 3-6 and ranked 25th. Delaware, based upon who they have played, is the stronger team here despite the record. I'm not saying the GPI is perfect or that Tennessee St could not beat Delaware if they played. Bottom line is, the GPI is a close predictor of games, especially late in the season.

And yes, I do not agree with the AGS ranking of Tennesse St at 25..it's too far out of whack for me. And no, I would not vote UD in my top 25..Just my xtwocentsx .

[OL FU]

Guys,

First and foremost, GPI is a POWER ranking. It's like a reverse golf handicapp. The GPI tries to level the playing field without the record of a team sandbagging the ranking. If that makes sense to you, your probably as whacked out as I am.

Tennessee State is 7-2 and ranked #47 in the GPI. Delaware is 3-6 and ranked 25th. Delaware, based upon who they have played, is the stronger team here despite the record. I'm not saying the GPI is perfect or that Tennessee St could not beat Delaware if they played. Bottom line is, the GPI is a close predictor of games, especially late in the season.

And yes, I do not agree with the AGS ranking of Tennesse St at 25..it's too far out of whack for me. And no, I would not vote UD in my top 25..Just my xtwocentsx .

I think we all understand that. The point is still the same. Also the GPI is promoted as a predictor of the playoff field. IF UD had won one more game it could potentially be rated higher with a record of 4-5 instead of 3-6 and still not be worthy of being in that position and no where near the playoffs.

[appfan2008]

face it... it is a joke that delaware is where they are no matter who they have played...

[89Hen]

xnutsx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xnutsx

For those that understand it, it's like running up the score, the return is diminishing. SOS will take Delaware only so far.
They are 25th with a 3-6 record. That's more than far enough to make you realize the computers are complete isht. But just more fuel for the fire...

Sagarin
16. Samford
20. Southern Illinois

xlolx

[bluehenbillk]

Even Barack Obama agrees. Anyone catch him on MNF last night, said if he could change one thing in sports, he'd have a playoff (in FBS) and "get rid of the stupid computers".

Delaware at #25 just proves the opinions that many people have had about this stupid wannabe index for years, it's not worth the paper you'd print it on. Richmond tied for 4th too? Wow. xeekx

[tingly]

Computer ratings aren't that great for football. They don't play enough games. I'm amazed that they do as well as they do. Basketball's RPI doesn't make too terribly much sense until around game #20.

[GSUhooligan]

It depends on how you look at it. Does Delaware have the 25th best record? No. But give me 25, 30 or 40 teams (depending on where you would have them in YOUR poll) that you would say, without a doubt, are better than Delaware.

[OL FU]

It depends on how you look at it. Does Delaware have the 25th best record? No. But give me 25, 30 or 40 teams (depending on where you would have them in YOUR poll) that you would say, without a doubt, are better than Delaware.

I never say without a doubt about anything. xsmhx

[GannonFan]

It depends on how you look at it. Does Delaware have the 25th best record? No. But give me 25, 30 or 40 teams (depending on where you would have them in YOUR poll) that you would say, without a doubt, are better than Delaware.

Probably any team that could score at least 10 points in a game right now. There's no way our offense gets double digits on anyone unless they really, really stink.

[ccd494]

Delaware would win the OVC.

[89Hen]

It depends on how you look at it. Does Delaware have the 25th best record? No. But give me 25, 30 or 40 teams (depending on where you would have them in YOUR poll) that you would say, without a doubt, are better than Delaware.
30...
JMU
Richmond
Villanova
UMass
UNH
W&M
Maine
AppSt
Wofford
Elon
Furman
GSU
UNI
SIU
WIU
NDSU
SDSU
Montana
Weber
Cal Poly
UCA
McNeese
Northeastern
Liberty
NAU
Montana State
Harvard
Brown
Colgate
Northwestern State

[89Hen]

Delaware would win the OVC.
Would be at least competitive.

[GannonFan]

30...
JMU
Richmond
Villanova
UMass
UNH
W&M
Maine
AppSt
Wofford
Elon
Furman
GSU
UNI
SIU
WIU
NDSU
SDSU
Montana
Weber
Cal Poly
UCA
McNeese
Northeastern
Liberty
NAU
Montana State
Harvard
Brown
Colgate
Northwestern State

Don't we actually own Colgate???? I think we win that game by just showing up in uniform. xlolx

[danefan]

And as much as it may sound like sour grapes or homerism or whatever, but I'd still take Albany over Delaware if they played again.

The second half was the worst 2 quarters of football that they have played in 2 years (according to Coach Ford at least).

[StonewallSpider]

I didn't see the game but based on the score (38-7) how could you take Albany in a rematch. I need a little more detail.

[GannonFan]

And as much as it may sound like sour grapes or homerism or whatever, but I'd still take Albany over Delaware if they played again.

The second half was the worst 2 quarters of football that they have played in 2 years (according to Coach Ford at least).

Eh, it would be a battle of two offense that couldn't do very much. Albany's O only managed 150 yards in that game, and their only scoring drive required Albany to go 73 yards on 16 plays. That's like crawling down the field. If they do play again, do I have to watch, it'll set back offensive football by decades. xsmhx

[danefan]

I didn't see the game but based on the score (38-7) how could you take Albany in a rematch. I need a little more detail.

I'm telling you Albany played the worst 2nd half ever. Offense was so ineffective it was horrible.

Nlot taking anything away from Delaware. They whooped Albany on that day. 38-7 and a second half butt kicking. And BTW it could have been 44-7, but Keeler (the class act that he is) took a knee on the 1 yard line to end the game.

That was the perfect storm for Delaware - coming off the tough loss to Furman and at home against a team that arguably gave Delaware its worse loss EVER the last time they played. Albany should have won that game but imploded on itself (thanks in part to the Delaware defense that was stifling that night).

I guess what I'm saying is that if the exact same situation presented itself again (scheduling, etc...) I think Albany loses 7 out of 10 times. However, any other situation or had Albany played Delaware 2 weeks before or 2 weeks after that, I think Albany wins 5 (or even 6) out of 10 times.

[GSUhooligan]

30...
JMU
Richmond
Villanova
UMass
UNH
W&M
Maine
AppSt
Wofford
Elon
Furman
GSU
UNI
SIU
WIU
NDSU
SDSU
Montana
Weber
Cal Poly
UCA
McNeese
Northeastern
Liberty
NAU
Montana State
Harvard
Brown
Colgate
Northwestern State

Bold means no, you're wrong. Delaware would beat those teams home, away or neutral.

[89Hen]

Don't we actually own Colgate???? I think we win that game by just showing up in uniform. xlolx
Nope. Colgate isn't undefeated this year. xsmiley_wix

[89Hen]

Bold means no, you're wrong. Delaware would beat those teams home, away or neutral.
And you've seen how many Hen games this year? Why would you think GSU could handle UD, but not Northeastern? If the game were at Parsons I can tell you that it would be a mortal lock for NU. xnodx :(

[CJHawkeyes]

Any system that attempts to rank teams best to worst team or most to least likely to win a hypothetical matchup should not be used to place teams in a competition. The purpose of competition is to determine a winner. It is not to identify the best team. Being a better team no more entitles one to a higher ranking than it entitles a better team to win a football game. For example, even if it were verifiably true that Delaware is a better team than Tennessee State, it does not mean that 3-6 versus Delaware's schedule should be more valuable than 7-2 versus Tennessee State's schedule. Like football itself, the football season is a game but those in charge refuse to treat it as such. There is no excuse for college football's lack of a fair, transparent, and completely objective ranking system. Of course, not all objective systems are good ideas. The problem is that so many fans are quick dismiss all such ideas without any understanding of how they work if they produce a result that contradicts their subjective opinion according to a different standard.

[OL FU]

Any system that attempts to rank teams best to worst team or most to least likely to win a hypothetical matchup should not be used to place teams in a competition. The purpose of competition is to determine a winner. It is not to identify the best team. Being a better team no more entitles one to a higher ranking than it entitles a better team to win a football game. For example, even if it were verifiably true that Delaware is a better team than Tennessee State, it does not mean that 3-6 versus Delaware's schedule should be more valuable than 7-2 versus Tennessee State's schedule. Like football itself, the football season is a game but those in charge refuse to treat it as such. There is no excuse for college football's lack of a fair, transparent, and completely objective ranking system. Of course, not all objective systems are good ideas. The problem is that so many fans are quick dismiss all such ideas without any understanding of how they work if they produce a result that contradicts their subjective opinion according to a different standard.

xnodx xnodx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xsmhx xsmhx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xrotatehx

I am trying to decide if I agree with you or if my subjective opinion has a different standardxconfusedx :D

[89Hen]

BTW, if the Hens beat Towson this Saturday, my ballot will have them at #25. Just try and stop me agspoll. xrulesx

[CJHawkeyes]

xnodx xnodx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xsmhx xsmhx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xrotatehx

I am trying to decide if I agree with you or if my subjective opinion has a different standardxconfusedx :D

Probably too wordy:D That said, I just meant that many fans will often dismiss an objective idea if it ranks Team A higher than Team B when said fans think Team B is better than Team A despite the fact that the objective idea makes no claim about who is better. Bottom line is that fans need to understand that better team does not equate to having a better season.

[OL FU]

Probably too wordy:D That said, I just meant that many fans will often dismiss an objective idea if it ranks Team A higher than Team B when said fans think Team B is better than Team A despite the fact that the objective idea makes no claim about who is better. Bottom line is that fans need to understand that better team does not equate to having a better season.

I understand. But Delaware still should not be 25xsmiley_wix

[AGSPoll]

BTW, if the Hens beat Towson this Saturday, my ballot will have them at #25. Just try and stop me agspoll. xrulesx


89hen

Pending
Approve
Deny X


xwhistlex xpeacex

[CJHawkeyes]

That I understood. But Delaware still should not be 25xsmiley_wix

I agree. My own idea places Delaware 66th.

[BDKJMU]

Even Barack Obama agrees. Anyone catch him on MNF last night, said if he could change one thing in sports, he'd have a playoff (in FBS) and "get rid of the stupid computers".

Delaware at #25 just proves the opinions that many people have had about this stupid wannabe index for years, it's not worth the paper you'd print it on. Richmond tied for 4th too? Wow. xeekx

The human polls aren't worth the paper they're written on either. At least the GPI takes the bad human polls and the bad computer polls, blends them together, and comes out with something thats a little less bad.

UR tied for #4 is slightly too high, but not that far off. I think UR is certainly a top 8 team.

[OL FU]

The human polls aren't worth the paper they're written on either. At least the GPI takes the bad human polls and the bad computer polls, blends them together, and comes out with something thats a little less bad.

UR tied for #4 is slightly too high, but not that far off. I think UR is certainly a top 8 team.

Well typically bad times bad = 2badxnodx

It think that is how the equation worksxnodx :o :D

[UC Davisite]

Again I ask what place Harvard has being up there??? Seriously.

[Green26]

Harvard would clobber Davis this year.

[danefan]

Harvard would clobber Davis this year.

What is that statement based on?

[OL FU]

What is that statement based on?


19. Harvard (20.00)
20. McNeese St (20.25)
21. N Arizona (21.00)
22. Ga Southern (21.50)
23. UC Davis (25.00)
24. S Dakota St (25.25)
25. Delaware (27.00)


xsmiley_wix

the way I figure it if Number 2 App beats number 3 Wofford by 40 (or whatever it was) then Harvard beats UC Davis by at least 120xnodx xlolx

[Green26]

My Harvard over Davis statement is based on: having seen Davis play in person this year; having followed Davis' season; having seen several Ivy teams play in person this year; having seen Harvard play on tv this year; having talked to a friend who follows Ivy football closely, who played Ivy football and who has seen Harvard play in person this year; having talked to another friend who has a relative playing for Harvard this year and who has seen Harvard play in person; having looked at Harvard's schedule; an almost common opponent (Northeastern beat Davis soundly, NE isn't very good this year, Harvard has beaten NE in years in which NE was much better); having played Ivy football; having followed the various rankings, GPI and Sagarin over the season; and generally not liking snippy or dumb comments made by posters about things they appear to know little about.

[Silenoz]

"Would" is a strong word

[danefan]

My Harvard over Davis statement is based on: having seen Davis play in person this year; having followed Davis' season; having seen several Ivy teams play in person this year; having seen Harvard play on tv this year; having talked to a friend who follows Ivy football closely, who played Ivy football and who has seen Harvard play in person this year; having talked to another friend who has a relative playing for Harvard this year and who has seen Harvard play in person; having looked at Harvard's schedule; an almost common opponent (Northeastern beat Davis soundly, NE isn't very good this year, Harvard has beaten NE in years in which NE is much better); having played Ivy football; having followed the various rankings, GPI and Sagarin over the season; and generally not liking snippy or dumb comments made by posters about things they appear to know little about.

All that still says nothing about Harvard being better than Davis. And BTW, my comment if far from snippy or dumb. Your comment, on the other hand, was a conclusary statement that deserved a follow up question. Exactly what I asked.

I've got just as much fact and circumstance to go on as you and I come to a much different conclusion. Harvard would give Davis a game, for sure. But in no way can you flat out say that "Harvard would clobber Davis this year."

[Green26]

Dane Fan, I was not referring to your comments or question as being snippy. Look at earlier comment(s) in the thread, including one from a Davis fan. I don't like posters who diss the Ivies, without knowing what they're talking about. Do you like posters who dismiss your team or your conference?

What's the basis of your contrary opinion? I gave you my basis in detail. My guess is that I have a much better basis for my opinion than for yours. Have you seen Davis play this year? Do you have any basis for evaluating Harvard? My friend is one of the foremost experts on Ivy football by the way, in my opinion, of course.

[danefan]

Dane Fan, I was not referring to your comments or question as being snippy. Look at earlier comment(s) in the thread, including one from a Davis fan. I don't like posters who diss the Ivies, without knowing what they're talking about. Do you like posters who dismiss your team or your conference?

What's the basis of your contrary opinion? I gave you my basis in detail. My guess is that I have a much better basis for my opinion than for yours. Have you seen Davis play this year? Do you have any basis for evaluating Harvard? My friend is one of the foremost experts on Ivy football by the way, in my opinion, of course.

I thought your comments were directed at me. Forget my response to it then. And I agree with the comments made by people. But do you realize that your comment about UC Davis getting spanked by Harvard is the exact same tone but going in the opposite direction?

I have seen many Ivy league games living in the Ivy League geographical area. I have not seen Davis play this year but I have seen Northeastern play. My basis for evaluating Davis is the fact that Northeastern is far from being a bad team.

Northeastern has losses to two FBS schools (including #17 BCS Ball State) and tough CAA teams. They have played some of the best schools in the country tough. And when they are at home they are even tougher (See Villanova last week).

Harvard has exactly ZERO good wins. Their only decent win (Lafayette) isn't looking so decent after last week. They snuck a win out over a bad Lehigh team and their loss to Brown is a stain on their resume (bad weather or not). I don't buy the Brown hype either.

And relying on an expert on Ivy league football isn't an objective view. A lot of Ivy League fans have little, if any, exposure to any FCS world outside of the Ivy and PL and tend to live in the past when it comes to their place in the NCAA football world. I don't blame them, I would probably do the same thing if I was surrounded by all that history.

Until the Ivy schools schedule outside of their conference against traditional FCS powers, they will get no respect. What are people supposed to compare them to?

I dont intend this to be disrepectful to the Ivy teams and players. I'm sure there is good football being played at the top of the conference. Their is just a realistic difference between the Ivy League and the CAA/SoCon/Big Sky/MVFC teams. And for one reason or another, this "gap" isn't reflected in computer rankings.xpeacex

[Green26]

The Ivy league already gets some respect from the polls and computer rankings. That's why Harvard is ranked. They may not get respect from some yahoos on message boards, but that says more about the yahoos than the Ivy league.

Yes, NE has played some good teams, but the fact remains that NE is 2-7 with its wins coming over Davis and Towson (3-6). You're welcome, Dane, to your apparent view that NE is a good team, but I'm going to stick with my view that they are not very good this year. Good teams win more than 2 games in a season.

Relying on my expert of the Ivy, and actually all football, is in fact objective--as he knows a heck of alot more about football than most posters on this board, including probably yourself. He also played college football.

Dane, you obviously don't know much about Harvard this year. You don't know anything about Davis either. Davis started out fairly strong, but pretty much lost it after losing to Montana (a game in which Montana played its worst, or second worst, game of the season). Your attitude towards Harvard and the Ivies reminds me of the attitudes of many Griz fans towards Albany.

The tone of my comment about Davis getting clobbered was intentional. I don't like the tone of some posters, and I sometimes put the same tone in my responses.

[lucchesicourt]

Green 26,
Well, if Harvard is so much better than UCD, then they can surely beat the Griz, as UCD gave the Griz all they could handle in their own house. So, maybe Harvard should be ranked higher or the Griz lower. What do you think. Griz?

[uofmman1122]

Green 26,
Well, if Harvard is so much better than UCD, then they can surely beat the Griz, as UCD gave the Griz all they could handle in their own house. So, maybe Harvard should be ranked higher or the Griz lower. What do you think. Griz?Harvard would not beat Montana now.

Hell, Montana would smoke UC Davis if they played again.

Ever since WSU beat us, we've been surging and playing like a new team.

[bluehenbillk]

And as much as it may sound like sour grapes or homerism or whatever, but I'd still take Albany over Delaware if they played again.

The second half was the worst 2 quarters of football that they have played in 2 years (according to Coach Ford at least).

Sounds like both sour grapes & homerism. Albany has the only FCS offense I've seen worse than UD's. All Albany tried to do is play smashmouth with UD which they were poorly equipped to succeed.

[lucchesicourt]

I thought the rankings are done on what actually happened rather than what you thought would happen. I actually think UCD has gotten lots better since the Montana game. The QB has gotten better (look at his numbers as he is in the top 10 in many FCS categories), we played without our number 1 RB at Montana, and our overall health has improved. Our run defense is pretty darn good, and we tend to keep the ball longer than our opponents. So, I really doubt Montana would destroy UCD in a rematch, especially if it was in Davis. But, that's my opinion. Now, if we compare opinions it's a wash. So let's just look at the facts. Montana played UCD in Montana, UCD had the lead going into the last two minutes of the game (congrats to Cole their QB for making some big throws in the 2 minute drill) and if you ask the Montana fans- they were scared and awful quiet for a while considering how noisy it is at their house. So, UCD put on a pretty good showing against the likes of SJSU and Montana. The Ags are a lot better than their record. Outside of the NE game ,the Ags 3 other losses were by a total of 11 points to 2 ranked FCS teams and an FBS team. The only bad loss, though all are bad, was to NE.
As for the lost to NE the game was played after a 3000 mile jaunt, the 4th road game in 5 games, after the Montana game, and in poor weather conditions. Now, I am not trying to make excuses, I am just trying to say NE beat UCD by 17 and they could have done it by more, but none of the other teams we lost to grossly outplayed UCD and all were road games. Montana and the UCD game was pretty much even, except on the scoreboard as UCD gained a few more yards than Montana and UCD had a longer time of possession.
Now these are just facts and not opinion. And as they say, you can look it up.

[lucchesicourt]

Green26,
UCD starterd out strong?!!!!. They started out with a 1 and 4 record. Their first win was against a Portland State team at home. That is hardly strong.

[lucchesicourt]

Green 26,
and after losing to Montana UCD is undefeated. So, you better check your facts. The lost to Montana did nothing as far as to how UCD has played since then.
So, I can only say you know not what you are talking about.

[danefan]

Sounds like both sour grapes & homerism. Albany has the only FCS offense I've seen worse than UD's. All Albany tried to do is play smashmouth with UD which they were poorly equipped to succeed.

On that day I will agree. Albany put together the worst offensive performance of the year and possibly the past 2. I'm not arguing that.

What I'm saying is that it was not nearly indicative of Albany's offensive ability. That's all I'm saying.

It was a horrendous game and Albany was straigh up beaten down by UD. What I'm saying is that I wouldn't expect that to happen again.

And I know its homerish, but hey, I am an Albany fan (and I have not voted for Albany in the top 25 since the UD game).

[URMite]

Well typically bad times bad = 2badxnodx

It think that is how the equation worksxnodx :o :D
Typically, but not always. For eample, if there are 10 aspects to each team and the humans overweigh 5 of them and the PCs overweigh the other 5, then blending the 2 could improve the overall weighting to a realistic level. I think that is what the GPI is attempting to do. The debate is how successful they have been.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Danefan,

Do you think the four consecutive road games against CAA teams had an impact on the Albany performance in the second half at Delaware? I ask because many of us in "power" conferences view our teams as stronger because of playing these types of games eight times a year. OOC teams can be competitive and even win a game against a "power" conference team, but doing so over eight games requires much more than one or two games stepping up. I have not been surprised that NDSU didn't have great success during their first MVFC season.

I have to wonder if Albany hit their breaking point, the wall so to speak, in Newark that Saturday. Sure, if you played them again today after multiple NEC games, you probably would do better. And I'm not slamming NEC teams, I'm just saying UA is more in their "comfort zone" with NEC teams. Playing Delaware at this point in the season would be very different than playing them at the end of that gauntlet you ran to begin the season. Please don't take this the wrong way because I was very, very impressed with how the Danes performed during that gauntlet. xnodx xbowx xpeacex

Green26,

As for Northeastern (NU), the record is what it is, but the relative strength of that team is another story. I saw the NU-UNH game in person, I heard about how close NU was to winning the game in Statesboro (GaSoU). Their loss at Ball State hasn't been as bad as some MAC teams. I would give NU an extremely good chance to win the Patriot, MEAC, OVC, Big South, Pioneer and Ivy this year. This is not your normal two win team. I'll be surprised if they don't beat Hofstra and Rhode Island, but as always they play the games for a reason.

[danefan]

Danefan,

Do you think the four consecutive road games against CAA teams had an impact on the Albany performance in the second half at Delaware? I ask because many of us in "power" conferences view our teams as stronger because of playing these types of games eight times a year. OOC teams can be competitive and even win a game against a "power" conference team, but doing so over eight games requires much more than one or two games stepping up. I have not been surprised that NDSU didn't have great success during their first MVFC season.

I have to wonder if Albany hit their breaking point, the wall so to speak, in Newark that Saturday. Sure, if you played them again today after multiple NEC games, you probably would do better. And I'm not slamming NEC teams, I'm just saying UA is more in their "comfort zone" with NEC teams. Playing Delaware at this point in the season would be very different than playing them at the end of that gauntlet you ran to begin the season. Please don't take this the wrong way because I was very, very impressed with how the Danes performed during that gauntlet. xnodx xbowx xpeacex



I think you hit the nail on the head. That's what I was trying to say, but I couldn't really get it out properly.

I think four games against strong CAA teams is tough. I think four games on the road to start the season against 4 CAA teams is stupid without having the funding (scholarships and otherwise) to match up.

I firmly believe that had Albany scheduled Fordham and Bucknell instead of two of UD/UNH/UMass that we would be having a different discussion on this GPI thread that would involve Albany somewhere in the top 20 with a legitimate shot at an at-large.

Some praise Albany for the tough schedule. This year was overkill. The depth that 63 scholarships gives is unbelievable. But even with that depth, I think any team would be hard pressed to play those opening 4 games on the road and come out on top of all 4.

[Native]

I thought the rankings are done on what actually happened rather than what you thought would happen....

I am sure they vote in good faith, but who knows what goes on in the minds of subjective voters in the sportswriters and coaches polls!

There are five computer ratings which go into the Gridiron Power Index version used by the NCAA to select at-large bids. One of them is the Massey rating, which does indeed calculate ratings and schedule strengths based on what has actually happened.

Massey rates UC-Davis as the 26th best FCS team in the nation, with the 36th strongest schedule to date. Strength of schedule will go up after you play Cal Poly.

That's pretty darn good! ...and objective.

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf

[Green26]

Hey Lucchesicourt:

This statement of yours isn't right: "and after losing to Montana UCD is undefeated." Davis lost to NE the week after playing UM. You have no credibility.

Davis played some pretty good teams close early in the year and beat PSU: San Jose St, Ark St and Montana. I thought that showed some strength. Then NE beat them, in what didn't appear to be a very close game. The later wins have not been against teams, and have not been impressive, in my view. Maybe Davis is still playing fairly well, as I thought they were early in the season.

Davis played Montana tough, but I don't think most UM fans were worried about Davis winning the game. The Griz have come back in multiple games over the years, including this year. They have a very good two-minute offense. They never give up.

Montana is a much improved team since it played Davis and it's loss to Weber. Had UM played Davis in the past month, I think UM would have clobbered them.

I think Harvard would give UM a game, especially if wasn't played when UM was on a roll like they've been the past month. PSU has won only 3 games this year, and I think they could give UM a game this weekend or even beat UM.

While it looked to me that NE "was not a very good team" this year, I will defer to those of you who know the situation better--as I have not seen them play and know their conference is tough. Just out of curiousity, are you saying that NE is a "very good" team? I know you disagreed with me--and I will defer to you--but I'm still not sure if you were saying that NE is a "very good" team. Note that I didn't say NE was a "bad" team (I don't think) or that NE wasn't a "good" team.

[Tribe4SF]

Hey Lucchesicourt:

This statement of yours isn't right: "and after losing to Montana UCD is undefeated." Davis lost to NE the week after playing UM. You have no credibility.

Davis played some pretty good teams close early in the year and beat PSU: San Jose St, Ark St and Montana. I thought that showed some strength. Then NE beat them, in what didn't appear to be a very close game. The later wins have not been against teams, and have not been impressive, in my view. Maybe Davis is still playing fairly well, as I thought they were early in the season.

Davis played Montana tough, but I don't think most UM fans were worried about Davis winning the game. The Griz have come back in multiple games over the years, including this year. They have a very good two-minute offense. They never give up.

Montana is a much improved team since it played Davis and it's loss to Weber. Had UM played Davis in the past month, I think UM would have clobbered them.

I think Harvard would give UM a game, especially if wasn't played when UM was on a roll like they've been the past month. PSU has won only 3 games this year, and I think they could give UM a game this weekend or even beat UM.

While it looked to me that NE "was not a very good team" this year, I will defer to those of you who know the situation better--as I have not seen them play and know their conference is tough. Just out of curiousity, are you saying that NE is a "very good" team? I know you disagreed with me--and I will defer to you--but I'm still not sure if you were saying that NE is a "very good" team. Note that I didn't say NE was a "bad" team (I don't think) or that NE wasn't a "good" team.

WHEW!xeekx Relax before you blow a vessel!

Only point I'll make on Harvard is their loss to Brown, who was beaten 37-13 by Rhode Island.

[lucchesicourt]

Green26,
Yes, I made an error. I thought (off the top of my head-I did not look at the schedule) that UCD had played NE before UM. Regardless, I did say NE beat UCD handily, and I also believe they are much better than their record. UM was fortunate to come out with a victory against UCD. It was a game they could have lost (again [props to Cole). You tell me anyone who is down by points with 2 minutes left in the game is not concerned about the outcome of the game is a joke. I would bet most UM fans were concerned about the outcome. When you are behind there is no guaranteed victory. However, I am sure you were 100% positive that Montana was going to score on their last drive, right? Which I know you did not. If it was so easy to score on UCD, you would have scored more points earlier in the game and not been behind at the end and need a score to win.
Now, I am not saying UCD is better than UM, but I am saying UM is NOT aso much better than UCD as you are making them appear. You are trying to tell me UM is so much better than when UCD played them, well so is UCD. We get our starting RB back this week, whom you guys did not have to play against. And Denham (our QB) was playing in only his 5th game in his collegiate career, and has improved dramatically. Even against UM, he did not do too bad. But, he is better now than he was then. He is making fewer mistakes, and still completing passes at around a 70% rate.
As far as credibility, I really doubt one mistake erases all the facts I pointed out. Especially a recollection event.
Using opinions as facts like you are doing is far worse- (like saying if UM played UCD now they would destroy UCD)- than what I said. So, talking about credibility, where's yours. So, where's your facts to base your opinion that UM would destroy UCD today? I'd like to see them.
From what I am hearing from you is, UCD is far inferior to UM because NE beat UCD handily. Therefore UCD is not a competitive team for UM. Sort of makes no sense to me.
But, you are entitled to your own opinion.

[Green26]

Yes, Harvard's loss to Brown in the 2nd game of the season is a blemish. However, the game was played in bad weather and at Brown, and Harvard won the other stats but had too many turnovers.

Lucchicourt, I can see from your post that you don't understand the game of football. Let me know if you want me to pick apart everything further football comment you make.

Yes, Denham is a good qb and is doing well, except for his 11 interceptions.

[wideright82]

Yes, Harvard's loss to Brown in the 2nd game of the season is a blemish. However, the game was played in bad weather and at Brown, and Harvard won the other stats but had too many turnovers.

Lucchicourt, I can see from your post that you don't understand the game of football. Let me know if you want me to pick apart everything further football comment you make.

Yes, Denham is a good qb and is doing well, except for his 11 interceptions.

well it is clear that Green26 is actually Lee Corso. What brings you to the AGS forum Lee? Decided to prove you know football better than everybody by tapping into your FCS knowledge. xthumbsupx



Just messin with ya

[lucchesicourt]

Green26,

He has cut his interceptions way down since early in the season. That's what I mean by he has gotten better as the season moves on. He lacks experience, but he is still learning. As for not understanding football, I surely do.
Excuse me, I admit UM is the best team and would kill UCD someday, but that is not this year.

[Native]

Green26,

He has cut his interceptions way down since early in the season. That's what I mean by he has gotten better as the season moves on. He lacks experience, but he is still learning. As for not understanding football, I surely do.
Excuse me, I admit UM is the best team and would kill UCD someday, but that is not this year.

Let's just hold off a bit and see first if UCD annihilates Sac State.

[JohnStOnge]

Any system that attempts to rank teams best to worst team or most to least likely to win a hypothetical matchup should not be used to place teams in a competition. The purpose of competition is to determine a winner. It is not to identify the best team. Being a better team no more entitles one to a higher ranking than it entitles a better team to win a football game. For example, even if it were verifiably true that Delaware is a better team than Tennessee State, it does not mean that 3-6 versus Delaware's schedule should be more valuable than 7-2 versus Tennessee State's schedule. Like football itself, the football season is a game but those in charge refuse to treat it as such. There is no excuse for college football's lack of a fair, transparent, and completely objective ranking system. Of course, not all objective systems are good ideas. The problem is that so many fans are quick dismiss all such ideas without any understanding of how they work if they produce a result that contradicts their subjective opinion according to a different standard.

I don't think one fails to determine a winner if they use a power ratings sytem that produces estimated "best to worst" ranking regardless of record. I also think that if you start getting into "valuing," say, Tennessee State's 7-2 record more than Delaware's 3-6 record simply because Tennesse State's represents a better winning percentage you're being subjective.

I mean, at one point a subjective decision has to be made. Like at one extreme you could make the subjective decision that having the best 16 teams in a tournament, put the "decision" in the "hands" of a good objective power rating system, then let the chips fall where they may. At the other extreme you could make the subjective decision that the 16 teams with the best winning percentages get in...with maybe some kind of random tiebreaker system if necessary...then let the chips fall where they may under that system. Either way, the process is objective once you implement it but was arrived upon by a subjective decision as to what's "fair."

And, either way, a winner is determined from the tournament. If you're going to make decisions about "at large" teams there's no way you're going to come up with something that is "fair" in everybody's eyes because of differences of opinion. For instance, you I do think at large berths ought to be given on the basis of an honest effort to determine the best 8 teams that did not get automatic bids regardless of their records, some minimum number of wins against D-I schools, etc. To me, it's very possible for a 3-6 record to represent more of an accomplishment than a 7-2 or even an 11-0 record does depending on who the opponents are. That doesn't mean it's likely that you'd see 3-6 teams in a 16 team field.

To me, if you start off by saying you're going to design a model that's going to come as close as possible to estimating the margin in each match up you're being about as objective and "fair" as you can get. Get average oberved margin minus the predicted margin as close as possible to zero (minimize bias) and get the mean squared error as small as possible. To me when you do that everything else takes care of itself. A 1 point loss to Florida becomes more "valuable" than a 20 point win over Texas Southern. And I think that's reasonable.

Back to the likelihood of seeing a 3-6 team in a 16 team field. Like if you look at Massey's Margin of victory ratings right now (http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf ) the worst record among the top 16 FCS teams is 6-3. If you look at Sagarin's "pure points" (predictor) system the worst record among the top 16 is 4-4. Plus you're likely to constrict the field for remaining at large berths because it's likely that two or three teams outside of the top 16 by the ranting system you use will get in on automatic bids.

[JohnStOnge]

Let's say you had two FCS teams this year that had each played five games. One played all its games on the road and is 0-5. It lost at Montana by 1, at App State by 3, at JMU by 2, at Cal Poly by 1, and at Northern Iowa by 4.

The other played all its games at home and is 5-0. It beat Texas Southern by 7, Savannah State by 3, Arkansas Pine Bluff by 2, Campbell by 10, and Austin Peay by 1.

Which team would you pick to win if the two met on a neutral field? Which of the two teams has had the most impressive performance?

My answer to both questions would be "The 0-5 team."

That's an extreme example. But I've always believed that, in any poll or ranking system, record has to be kept completely within the context of how difficult the opposition has been.

[Native]

Let's say you had two FCS teams this year that had each played five games. One played all its games on the road and is 0-5. It lost at Montana by 1, at App State by 3, at JMU by 2, at Cal Poly by 1, and at Northern Iowa by 4.

The other played all its games at home and is 5-0. It beat Texas Southern by 7, Savannah State by 3, Arkansas Pine Bluff by 2, Campbell by 10, and Austin Peay by 1.

Which team would you pick to win if the two met on a neutral field? Which of the two teams has had the most impressive performance?

My answer to both questions would be "The 0-5 team."

That's an extreme example. But I've always believed that, in any poll or ranking system, record has to be kept completely within the context of how difficult the opposition has been.


xconfusedx xrotatehx xlolx xlolx xnodx xthumbsupx

[Syntax Error]

BTW, if the Hens beat Towson this Saturday... DELAWARE 31, Towson 21
There's no way our offense gets double digits on anyone unless they really, really stink.DELAWARE 31, Towson 21; add that to Hofstra, Maine, Albany, and Furman (plus Westchester) where the Blue Hens put up double-digit points.