Playoff Prognostications (Week 10)

[crusader11]

After this week, all of the Auto-Bids stayed the same with the exception of Northwestern State getting the nod from the Southland Conference instead of Texas State.
As far as the At Large Bids, Furman replaces Northern Arizona. I was really compelled to put William and Mary into the playoffs, but some of Furman’s wins, and how they hung with App State caused me to put them in the playoffs.
The Auto-Bids:

Big Sky- Weber State
Colonial- James Madison
MEAC- South Carolina State
Missouri Valley- Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley- Tennessee-Martin
Patriot League- Holy Cross
Southern Conference- Appalachian State
Southland- Northwestern State

At Large (in no order):

Montana
Furman
New Hampshire
Villanova
Cal Poly
Northern Iowa
Wofford
Elon

Last 2 out: William and Mary and Richmond
Last 2 in: Cal Poly and Furman
Others considered: Northern Arizona, Liberty, UMASS, Maine, and William and Mary

[Silenoz]

Fingers crossed its indeed Northwestern State :)

[TexasTerror]

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina State
MVFC: Northern Iowa
OVC: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: Colgate
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Northwestern State

At-Large
1) Cal Poly
2) Montana
3) Richmond
4) Southern Illinois
5) Villanova
6) New Hampshire
7) Wofford
8) Elon

On bubble...
UMass - Win at Holy Cross looks better by the week. Big games left vs Maine and at UNH
Maine - Wins over Iona and Monmouth do nothing for me. A win at UMass and home vs UNH would be big for argument.
William & Mary - they got JMU and Richmond left to prove their worth. A split would put them in.
N. Arizona - Wins vs Montana St and at Eastern Washington would still leave them on bubble at 7-3 against Div I competition. Big Sky is not a three bid league this year and the losses to Montana and Weber State hurt. Needed a split
E. Kentucky - OVC is not a two-bid league though could be if things shake up down the stretch. Game at UT-Martin will be for AQ
Tenn St - They could win AQ, especially since they beat EKU and UT-Martin, but they've had a few too many games come down to wire. I can see a loss at J'ville State in two weeks.

[jcmanson]

Liberty doesn't deserve to be "considered"

[FargoBison]

Autobids
Big Sky- Weber State
CAA- JMU
MEAC- South Carolina State
MVFC- UNI
OVC- UT-Martin*
Patriot- Colgate*
SoCon- App State
SLC- Northwestern State
* denotes teams currently tied in first place

At-Large Bids
Wofford
SIU
Montana
Cal Poly
Villanova
New Hampshire
Richmond
Elon

Last team in...Elon
Last five out...William and Mary, Furman, Maine, Umass, WIU
Next five out...SDSU, NDSU, NAU, Tennessee State, EKU

Playoff Bracket
1.JMU vs Elon
Villanova vs Colgate

4.UNI vs UNH
SIU vs Richmond

2.App State vs UT-Martin
Wofford vs SCSU

3.Weber State vs Northwestern State
Montana vs Cal Poly

[crusader11]

Liberty doesn't deserve to be "considered"

Eh, I guess they should be considered, but, realistically, even if they win out they're not getting in.

[AZGrizFan]

Playoff Bracket
1.JMU vs Elon
Villanova vs Colgate

4.UNI vs UNH
SIU vs Richmond

2.App State vs UT-Martin
Wofford vs SCSU

3.Weber State vs Northwestern State
Montana vs Cal Poly

So it's JMU, Villanova, ASU and Wofford that get the cupcakes this year, huh? xrolleyesx xrolleyesx xrolleyesx

[FargoBison]

So it's JMU, Villanova, ASU and Wofford that get the cupcakes this year, huh? xrolleyesx xrolleyesx xrolleyesx

Weber State is getting one too, in fact Northwestern State would be the weakest team in the field.

[uofmman1122]

Autobids
Big Sky- Weber State
CAA- JMU
MEAC- South Carolina State
MVFC- UNI
OVC- UT-Martin*
Patriot- Colgate*
SoCon- App State
SLC- Northwestern State
* denotes teams currently tied in first place

At-Large Bids
Wofford
SIU
Montana
Cal Poly
Villanova
New Hampshire
Richmond
Elon

Last team in...Elon
Last five out...William and Mary, Furman, Maine, Umass, WIU
Next five out...SDSU, NDSU, NAU, Tennessee State, EKU

Playoff Bracket
1.JMU vs Elon
Villanova vs Colgate

4.UNI vs UNH
SIU vs Richmond

2.App State vs UT-Martin
Wofford vs SCSU

3.Weber State vs Northwestern State
Montana vs Cal PolyJust curious, but what warrants a UNI seed over Montana? Especially if Montana wins out and goes 11-1?

[FargoBison]

Just curious, but what warrants a UNI seed over Montana? Especially if Montana wins out and goes 11-1?

I just don't see the committee giving the Big Sky two bids this year. UNI also has a loss to top 25 FBS team.

[Rob Iola]

So basically the at-larges are all going to so-called power conference schools plus Poly...

Just so long as JMU and ASU take care of business to get to Chatty - Landers v AE, the Rematch, would be phenomenal...

[uofmman1122]

I just don't see the committee giving the Big Sky two bids this year. UNI also has a loss to top 25 FBS team.Based on what? xeyebrowx

Edit: I see you added something since I saw it last. Getting lambasted by BYU shows what?

[Chi Panther]

Just curious, but what warrants a UNI seed over Montana? Especially if Montana wins out and goes 11-1?

Second week in a row you ripped on UNI. ASU, Montana and UNI all had HUGE wins this week.

Atleast ASU and UNI played Top 25 FBS teams. Montana took the easy road...

[uofmman1122]

Second week in a row you ripped on UNI. ASU, Montana and UNI all had HUGE wins this week.

Atleast ASU and UNI played Top 25 FBS teams. Montana took the easy road...Don't even start.

Montana played and beat a top 5 FCS team on the road as its first game.

How is that somehow worse than getting creamed by BYU? xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

[Eight Legger]

Any projection at this point that doesn't include either William and Mary or Richmond is bogus, IMO. Of course things could change, but right now it is a lock that one of those two makes it.

[FargoBison]

Based on what? xeyebrowx

Edit: I see you added something since I saw it last. Getting lambasted by BYU shows what?

The Big Sky is not a two seed league, based on history and the fact that Montana doesn't present a good enough case to get a seed over UNI.

BYU proves their records are not comparable because Montana didn't play an FBS. So Montana is 10-1 and UNI 9-1 after non-counters are taken out, and I don't think one more win gives Montana strength to overcome getting a seed over the MVFC champ or co-champ.

[Chi Panther]

Don't even start.

Montana played and beat a top 5 FCS team on the road as its first game.

How is that somehow worse than getting creamed by BYU? xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

OK, I won't start.

But UNI has the same chance as the Grizz...Grizz got just as lucky beating the Stangs as the Dawgs beating the Cats....xcoffeex

[Native]

The Big Sky is not a two seed league, based on history and the fact that Montana doesn't present a good enough case to get a seed over UNI.

UNI is having a good season and I hope they make it to the playoffs. You are right, the BSC is not a two-seed conference, but there will not be a single playoff team below the top four seeds which would prefer to face Montana over UNI in the first round. xcoolx

[Rob Iola]

Any projection at this point that doesn't include either William and Mary or Richmond is bogus, IMO. Of course things could change, but right now it is a lock that one of those two makes it.
And actually both could get it - if W&M upsets JMU and then loses to Richmond (and Richmond also takes care of daHenz and the Flying Dutch, er, Pride) then both end up with 3 losses and a strong case for at-large consideration...

[uofmman1122]

OK, I won't start.

But UNI has the same chance as the Grizz...Grizz got just as lucky beating the Stangs as the Dawgs beating the Cats....xcoffeexDifference being that Cal Poly would roll SIU and UNI. xwhistlex

[Rob Iola]

UNI is having a good season and I hope they make it to the playoffs. You are right, the BSC is not a two-seed conference, but there will not be a single playoff team below the top four seeds which would prefer to face Montana over UNI in the first round. xcoolx
Really? Seems like as raucous (sp?) as Grizz home games are, no team in their right mind would want to play at the UNI Dome...

[Chi Panther]

Difference being that Cal Poly would roll SIU and UNI. xwhistlex

xbawlingx We can't compete....xbawlingx

[Silenoz]

All I know is, I'm not going to assume I know who's gonna beat who until AFTER the games have been played

[Houndawg]

UNI is having a good season and I hope they make it to the playoffs. You are right, the BSC is not a two-seed conference, but there will not be a single playoff team below the top four seeds which would prefer to face Montana over UNI in the first round. xcoolx

Is that what they told you?xrotatehx

[Houndawg]

Difference being that Cal Poly would roll SIU and UNI. xwhistlex

That's why they call it "dope".

[Chi Panther]

All I know is, I'm not going to assume I know who's gonna beat who until AFTER the games have been played

All I said is UNI has the same chance for a Seed that Montana has.

Your Samurai cousin is assuming outcomes already....xnonono2x

[Ronbo]

If Montana wins out we'll be 11-1. Most likely #2 OR #3 in GPI. Most likely #2 or #3 in the Sagarin rankings. And no worse than #4 in the TSN poll.

And we won't get a seed. BaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa!!!!!!! You boys are dreamin'! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Houndawg]

OK, I won't start.

But UNI has the same chance as the Grizz...Grizz got just as lucky beating the Stangs as the Dawgs beating the Cats....xcoffeex

Actually it was the cats that were lucky we had to stay in our base defense and use a limited playbook.

If cats and dawgs win out the dawgs have as good a shot at a seed as the cats.xnodx

[Edge316007]

Just because there is no precedent in the BSC having 2 seeds doesn't mean it's not possible. I still believe in my seeds from last week: JMU, App, Weber St., Montana

[Houndawg]

Just because there is no precedent in the BSC having 2 seeds doesn't mean it's not possible. I still believe in my seeds from last week: JMU, App, Weber St., Montana

You're not going to get two seeds from anywhere but the CAA.

[Edge316007]

Except last year when the MVC had 2?

Other conferences besides the CAA exists, you know

[Houndawg]

Except last year when the MVC had 2?

Other conferences besides the CAA exists, you know

I know that, but I'm not on the selection committee.

Last year there were three 11-0 teams and a 10-1 seeded.

[Eight Legger]

There is no chance Montana and Weber will both be seeded. I will quit posting here and begin posting exclusively on the JMU board if that happens.

[LehighFan11]

Montana won't get a seed over UNI if UNI wins their conference and Montana doesn't. Get ready to play a road game.

[AlphaSigMD]

Montana won't get a seed over UNI if UNI wins their conference and Montana doesn't. Get ready to play a road game.

Regardless of seading, if Montana makes the playoffs, they will have at least 1 game at Wa-Griz.

They will have to win at home first to advance and then hope the ball bounces their way (like it did for ASU last year).

[MountaineerGuy]

I was against 4 teams from one conference last year and I think I'm against it this year. Furman isn't awful, but imo letting all three of the SoCon's frontrunners in is enough. Making a quarter of the playoff field from one conference gives too many people too many second chances imo.

My prediction looks like this:

1. JMU vs. <somebody*>
<somebody*> vs. <somebody*>
4. <somebody*> vs. <somebody*>
<somebody*> vs. <somebody*>
3. <somebody*> vs. <somebody*>
<somebody*> vs. <somebody*>
2. App. State vs. <somebody*>
<somebody*> vs. <somebody*>

*relatively irrelevant, assuming current trends hold true

;)

[siuham]

Montana won't get a seed over UNI if UNI wins their conference and Montana doesn't. Get ready to play a road game.

Except UNI can't win their conference without help from a team that isn't them.

[LehighFan11]

Except UNI can't win their conference without help from a team that isn't them.

Same for Montana.

[siuham]

Same for Montana.

Except Montana needs Weber to lose both of their last two games, which includes Idaho State. So, not gonna happen. UNI just needs SIU to lose one of its last three games.

[leatherneck177]

After this week, all of the Auto-Bids stayed the same with the exception of Northwestern State getting the nod from the Southland Conference instead of Texas State.
As far as the At Large Bids, Furman replaces Northern Arizona. I was really compelled to put William and Mary into the playoffs, but some of Furman’s wins, and how they hung with App State caused me to put them in the playoffs.
The Auto-Bids:

Big Sky- Weber State
Colonial- James Madison
MEAC- South Carolina State
Missouri Valley- Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley- Tennessee-Martin
Patriot League- Holy Cross
Southern Conference- Appalachian State
Southland- Northwestern State

At Large (in no order):

Montana
Furman
New Hampshire
Villanova
Cal Poly
Northern Iowa
Wofford
Elon

Last 2 out: William and Mary and Richmond
Last 2 in: Cal Poly and Furman
Others considered: Northern Arizona, Liberty, UMASS, Maine, and William and Mary

I get a kick out of you considering NAU and Liberty but not WIU. Homer comment of course on my part, but still...

[DB_Atlantic10]

Just because there is no precedent in the BSC having 2 seeds doesn't mean it's not possible. I still believe in my seeds from last week: JMU, App, Weber St., Montana I truly have a hard time believing that a 11-1 Montana squad would not get a seed...... So I definitely agree with Montana......although I do not think that the BS would get two.... I think UNI would probably get the other. The Big Sky does not warrant two seeds over the CAA this year or at least one from the MVC. The overall conference strength is way too weak for two seeds...

[crusader11]

I get a kick out of you considering NAU and Liberty but not WIU. Homer comment of course on my part, but still...

Fair enough. But getting trounced by UNI does not help their cause. I guess they still should be considered though. If they win out, an 8-3 WIU team could make a compelling argument to get in, however, I think the last spot for at-large birds is going to go to a team from the CAA or So Con (Richmond, W&M, Furman, etc.).

[R.A.]

Folks... are we reading the OVC correctly? Tenn State holds tie breakers over both Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee Martin.

The Tigers are still the favorite to win the conference...

[Native]

There is no chance Montana and Weber will both be seeded. I will quit posting here and begin posting exclusively on the JMU board if that happens.

Concur that it will not hppen an that it wouldn't be right. xnodx

But please don't stop posting, spiderman. xsmhx

[Edge316007]

I truly have a hard time believing that a 11-1 Montana squad would not get a seed...... So I definitely agree with Montana......although I do not think that the BS would get two.... I think UNI would probably get the other. The Big Sky does not warrant two seeds over the CAA this year or at least one from the MVC. The overall conference strength is way too weak for two seeds...

I don't think you can leave out Weber St. then as they would have the head to head win and the auto bid from the conference.

I realize it's not a popular opinion, but I still think it could happen. I really can't see an 11-1 Montana team not getting seeded and if Montana gets seeded, I can't see Weber St. not getting seeded.

JMU and App should be obvious at this point (assuming they both don't stumble).

[UNI Pike]

UNI is having a good season and I hope they make it to the playoffs. You are right, the BSC is not a two-seed conference, but there will not be a single playoff team below the top four seeds which would prefer to face Montana over UNI in the first round. xcoolx

Take your choice, the gun or the knife...

[Native]

All I know is, I'm not going to assume I know who's gonna beat who until AFTER the games have been played

Very wise... especially for a GRIZZLY Bear...xsmiley_wix

[youwouldno]

The key game for all 3 SoCon at-large hopefuls (Furman, Wofford, Elon) is Furman @ Wofford. If Furman wins, the Paladins are in, and since Wofford dominated Elon, presumably Wofford would still be in, while Elon would be out. This of course assumes Elon loses @ App St.

[Native]

Folks... are we reading the OVC correctly? Tenn State holds tie breakers over both Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee Martin.

The Tigers are still the favorite to win the conference...

Great observation, RA, but doesn't Tennessee State still have to play Jacksonville State on 11/15? If they lose, that will make for TWO conference losses and leave either Tennessee Martin or Eastern Kentucky, meeting on 11/22, with only one loss and the conference championship. xconfusedx

The web could be more tangled than we thought? xeyebrowx

[JmuSkinsfan]

Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina State
MVFC: Northern Iowa
OVC: Tennessee State
Patriot: Colgate
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Northwestern State

At-Large
1) Cal Poly
2) Montana
3) Richmond
4) Southern Illinois
5) Villanova
6) New Hampshire
7) Wofford
8) Elon

ROUND 1

#1 JMU v. Colgate
Villanova v. Elon

#4 UNI v. UNH
SIU v. Richmond

#2 App. State v. Tenn. State
Wofford v. SCSU

#3 Weber State v. Cal Poly
Montana v. Northwestern State

ROUND 2

#1 JMU v. Villanova
#4 UNI v. Richmond

#2 App. State v. Wofford
Montana v. Cal Poly

ROUND 3

#1 JMU v. Richmond
#2 App. State v. Cal Poly

REMATCHxnodx

[Maroons]

Other conferences besides the CAA exists, you know

Yes, but they don't really matter. xrolleyesx

[FargoBison]

Folks... are we reading the OVC correctly? Tenn State holds tie breakers over both Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee Martin.

The Tigers are still the favorite to win the conference...

UT-Martin 5-1
EKU 5-1
TSU 4-1

TSU may have the tiebreakers but they have played one less game.

[th0m]

JMUSkins,

that is one crazy bracket for JMU. A rematch with Villanova, Richmond AND Appalachian? xeekx

[Native]

I just don't see the committee giving the Big Sky two bids this year. UNI also has a loss to top 25 FBS team.

Agreed. xthumbsupx

The committee will not be giving the Big Sky two bids this year.

But that has nothing to to do with UNI's loss to a top 25 team. Weber has loss to a top 12 team, but that does not justify getting a top 4 seed. xsmhx

Winning the conference championship, beating Montana and going undefeated against FCS teams should do the trick, however. xsmiley_wix

[Native]

Take your choice, the gun or the knife...

My choice is... a playoff matchup! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[FargoBison]

Agreed. xthumbsupx

The committee will not be giving the Big Sky two bids this year.

But that has nothing to to do with UNI's loss to a top 25 team. Weber has loss to a top 12 team, but that does not justify getting a top 4 seed. xsmhx

Winning the conference championship, beating Montana and going undefeated against FCS teams should do the trick, however. xsmiley_wix


Their loss to BYU was more about the fact that they have played an FBS team and Montana has not. Montana could go 11-1 and UNI 10-2 but because of an FBS game not everything is equal.

[Native]

Their loss to BYU was more about the fact that they have played an FBS team and Montana has not. Montana could go 11-1 and UNI 10-2 but because of an FBS game not everything is equal.

Montana has built a program up over the decades so that they don't need the cash from an FBS game. All respect to Montana.

[Saint3333]

I think the seeds should be the winner of the top 3 conferences: JMU, ASU, SIU, and Weber St., if of course they all win out.

Nova and Montana are close though. 3 weeks remain an upset will happen.

[Ronbo]

Montana has built a program up over the decades so that they don't need the cash from an FBS game. All respect to Montana.

You are correct sir. With the new expansion.

We make over $600,000 for each home game, $750,000 homecoming, and over $1,000,000 for Montana State.

Now why would we need to schedule a body bag game?

[LehighFan11]

Didn't Montana just play Iowa last year?

[Ronbo]

Didn't Montana just play Iowa last year?


Yes we did in 2006. But since we paid off the North End Zone, expanded with the new deck, and raised ticket prices we make the $600,000 Iowa paid us with every home game now.

[LehighFan11]

Yes we did in 2006. But since we paid off the North End Zone, expanded with the new deck, and raised ticket prices we make the $600,000 Iowa paid us with every home game now.

Dam, how much do tickets cost?

[CJHawkeyes]

FWIW, here are the 16 playoff teams according to a point system I devised. If there is a tie for first in an auto bid conference, I awarded the auto bid to the highest ranked team overall.

1-James Madison AB
2-Appalachian State AB
3-Weber State AB
4-Montana WC
5-Cal Poly WC
6-South Carolina State AB
7-New Hampshire WC
8-Northern Iowa AB
9-Richmond WC
10-Elon WC
11-Villanova WC
12-Wofford WC
13-Tennessee State WC
14-Tennessee-Martin AB
15-Colgate AB
16-Northwestern State AB

NEXT FIVE
Dayton, William & Mary, Massachusetts, Eastern Kentucky, and Furman.


Based on what I have learned about FCS politics, it would appear that South Carolina State is "overrated" while the OVC is unlikely to place two teams in the playoffs.

[LehighFan11]

FWIW, here are the 16 playoff teams according to a point system I devised. If there is a tie for first in an auto bid conference, I awarded the auto bid to the highest ranked team overall.

1-James Madison AB
2-Appalachian State AB
3-Weber State AB
4-Montana WC
5-Cal Poly WC
6-South Carolina State AB
7-New Hampshire WC
8-Northern Iowa AB
9-Richmond WC
10-Elon WC
11-Villanova WC
12-Wofford WC
13-Tennessee State WC
14-Tennessee-Martin AB
15-Colgate AB
16-Northwestern State AB

NEXT FIVE
Dayton, William & Mary, Massachusetts, Eastern Kentucky, and Furman.


Based on what I have learned about FCS politics, it would appear that South Carolina State is "overrated" while the OVC is unlikely to place two teams in the playoffs.
Dayton and EKU are defiantly not on the playoff radar.

[Ronbo]

Dam, how much do tickets cost?

A season ticket was $215 or $30.71 per game. That is for every seat in the house. No discount sections. If you sit in the end zone it's the same as the 50.

[FargoBison]

Montana has built a program up over the decades so that they don't need the cash from an FBS game. All respect to Montana.

Thats nice but it has nothing to do with what I was talking about.

[EKU Pride]

Dayton and EKU are defiantly not on the playoff radar.

Don't know what kool-aid you've been drinking, but EKU is definitely in the hunt for a playoff spot! Not sure about Dayton, but EKU will make it 19 times!

[Saint3333]

Yes we did in 2006. But since we paid off the North End Zone, expanded with the new deck, and raised ticket prices we make the $600,000 Iowa paid us with every home game now.

ASU makes more per home game than the majority of the pay outs as well. But the FBS games contain intangibles such as recruiting and fan interest. ASU can tell their 2009 recruits they will play ECU, VT, Florida, and UGA during the next 5 years.

[appstate38]

When does all the talk start about how the Apps wouldn't be nearly as good if they had to play away from KBS?????

[Eight Legger]

Don't know what kool-aid you've been drinking, but EKU is definitely in the hunt for a playoff spot! Not sure about Dayton, but EKU will make it 19 times!

I think he was referring to at-large bids, not auto bids. EKU won't get an at-large bid but could win the auto bid for sure.

[LehighFan11]

I think he was referring to at-large bids, not auto bids. EKU won't get an at-large bid but could win the auto bid for sure.
Yes I was thanks. I should of been clearer.

[EKU Pride]

I think he was referring to at-large bids, not auto bids. EKU won't get an at-large bid but could win the auto bid for sure.


Ha Ha! That's amusing! Hey, since your close to DC, you need to take your lobbying to Capital Hill!

[Chi Panther]

FWIW, here are the 16 playoff teams according to a point system I devised. If there is a tie for first in an auto bid conference, I awarded the auto bid to the highest ranked team overall.

1-James Madison AB
2-Appalachian State AB
3-Weber State AB
4-Montana WC
5-Cal Poly WC
6-South Carolina State AB
7-New Hampshire WC
8-Northern Iowa AB
9-Richmond WC
10-Elon WC
11-Villanova WC
12-Wofford WC
13-Tennessee State WC
14-Tennessee-Martin AB
15-Colgate AB
16-Northwestern State AB

NEXT FIVE
Dayton, William & Mary, Massachusetts, Eastern Kentucky, and Furman.


Based on what I have learned about FCS politics, it would appear that South Carolina State is "overrated" while the OVC is unlikely to place two teams in the playoffs.

No SIU????xconfusedx

[santosballnewhampshire]

Whats all this talk about UNH, they will lose there next two games, and be out.

UNH is out at 8-3...hUH? xeyebrowx

[youwouldno]

UNH is out at 8-3...hUH? xeyebrowx

If UNH finishes with 2 losses, its not even a question they are out.

[pather]

FWIW, here are the 16 playoff teams according to a point system I devised. If there is a tie for first in an auto bid conference, I awarded the auto bid to the highest ranked team overall.

1-James Madison AB
2-Appalachian State AB
3-Weber State AB
4-Montana WC
5-Cal Poly WC
6-South Carolina State AB
7-New Hampshire WC
8-Northern Iowa AB
9-Richmond WC
10-Elon WC
11-Villanova WC
12-Wofford WC
13-Tennessee State WC
14-Tennessee-Martin AB
15-Colgate AB
16-Northwestern State AB

NEXT FIVE
Dayton, William & Mary, Massachusetts, Eastern Kentucky, and Furman.


Based on what I have learned about FCS politics, it would appear that South Carolina State is "overrated" while the OVC is unlikely to place two teams in the playoffs.

i really hope it was an accidental oversight that you left out SIU

[CJHawkeyes]

No SIU????xconfusedx

Well, SIU certainly controls its destiny in the MVC under actual tiebreakers. Of course, I assume winning out would gain SIU a wildcard berth based on how I set the field. Right now, SIU is the sixth team out based on my idea and very little separates them from the five teams I listed.

[Native]

Weber State is getting one too, in fact Northwestern State would be the weakest team in the field.

xnodx xnodx xnodx

[Chi Panther]

Well, SIU certainly controls its destiny in the MVC under actual tiebreakers. Of course, I assume winning out would gain SIU a wildcard berth based on how I set the field. Right now, SIU is the sixth team out based on my idea and very little separates them from the five teams I listed.

Actually winning out would give them the Auto-Bid.

I would like them to lose however so UNI is the outright champ.

But I find it hard to leave them out right now with their resume....

[UNIFanSince1983]

And you would include 2 OVC teams and only one MVC team? Your point system is jacked. And you consider another one before even getting to SIU who IS IN if they win out? Dayton higher than SIU? You might want to figure out a new system because yours doesn't work right.

[mainejeff]

UNH is out at 8-3...hUH? xeyebrowx

Yes......New England teams must have 2 more wins and 2 less losses than every one else across the country........xrolleyesx xrolleyesx xrolleyesx

[ekufbfan]

Dayton and EKU are defiantly not on the playoff radar.

I can understand that Tn State has been and is the favorite this week as they have beat both EKU (in Nashville) and UTM (in Martin). I understrand why JSU was getting a lot of love (RP/LSU connection). However, at this stage of the game, I am not understanding the sure bet UTM over EKU thing. The have lost one less game than we have (both of us have lost one conf game to again TSU). They lost to a DI team, but beat two NAIA/DI,II teams in Martin. We lost to DI UCincy and to WKU. Now, we may get our a$$ kicked the next two games (Murray State and UTM), but we are playing better every game. We started out the year with a new head coach, a new offense and offensive coordinator, only ONE returning offensive lineman and Coach Hood implemented a entire new defense (which seems to be getting stronger each game). UTM may finally get us this year (the game is in Martin). We can continue to fly under the radar be discounted as having no chance, and the winningest team in the OVC will see what happens in the next couple of weeks ;)

GO EKU!!

[whoanellie]

Weber State is getting one too, in fact Northwestern State would be the weakest team in the field.

cupcakes?

any school that manages to accept a bid to this championship series should feel honored. So don't be so contrite with your statements. I know2 it's fun to speculate but it looks like no one is backing in.


The top 4 seeds are key as they have a home field advantage...

[smcwildcat]

even if we do we can finish 8-3 and look alright..... also im confident about our next games

[Jerbearasu]

Yes......New England teams must have 2 more wins and 2 less losses than every one else across the country........xrolleyesx xrolleyesx xrolleyesx

No the point is that the committee looks at how you play down the stretch and losing the last 2 games would show that the team is now starting to falter. I disagree with the poster. I believe an 8-3 UNH team makes the playoffs but how a team performs in the last few weeks will bear some weight on the playoff committee...

[smcwildcat]

xeyebrowx
If UNH finishes with 2 losses, its not even a question they are out.
hahahahah O wow you have no idea what your talking about....really?

[santosballnewhampshire]

No the point is that the committee looks at how you play down the stretch and losing the last 2 games would show that the team is now starting to falter. I disagree with the poster. I believe an 8-3 UNH team makes the playoffs but how a team performs in the last few weeks will bear some weight on the playoff committee...

agreed

[FargoBison]

cupcakes?

any school that manages to accept a bid to this championship series should feel honored. So don't be so contrite with your statements. I know2 it's fun to speculate but it looks like no one is backing in.


The top 4 seeds are key as they have a home field advantage...

Settle down, I was merely trying to point out to AZ that a certain Big Sky school was getting a "favorable" first round matchup as well.

[CJHawkeyes]

And you would include 2 OVC teams and only one MVC team? Your point system is jacked. And you consider another one before even getting to SIU who IS IN if they win out? Dayton higher than SIU? You might want to figure out a new system because yours doesn't work right.

What qualifies as working right? UNI and SIU were my system's first and fourth seeds last year. Did it work right last year but is wrong this year because its results do not match some people's biases? Based on some of the predictions in this thread, SIU seems to be the only team my system got "wrong" and they would likely replace either Tennessee State or Tennessee-Martin (whichever does not win the OVC). SIU has played one less game than both to date. Therefore, they have had less opportunity to accumulate points.

[Native]

cupcakes?

any school that manages to accept a bid to this championship series should feel honored. So don't be so contrite with your statements. I know2 it's fun to speculate but it looks like no one is backing in.


The top 4 seeds are key as they have a home field advantage...

Points well taken, Nellie. xthumbsupx

[PantherRob82]

4.UNI vs UNH
SIU vs Richmond



How dare you give us UNH and then possibly SIU. xbawlingx

[PantherRob82]

UNI is having a good season and I hope they make it to the playoffs. You are right, the BSC is not a two-seed conference, but there will not be a single playoff team below the top four seeds which would prefer to face Montana over UNI in the first round. xcoolx

Wofford might.

[FargoBison]

How dare you give us UNH and then possibly SIU. xbawlingx

But I'm giving you SIU in the UNIdome, you gotta like that.

[PantherRob82]

Actually it was the cats that were lucky we had to stay in our base defense and use a limited playbook.

If cats and dawgs win out the dawgs have as good a shot at a seed as the cats.xnodx

Not according to the GPI or polls.

[Native]

Wofford might.

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

Got me! xthumbsupx

[whoanellie]

The key game for all 3 SoCon at-large hopefuls (Furman, Wofford, Elon) is Furman @ Wofford. If Furman wins, the Paladins are in, and since Wofford dominated Elon, presumably Wofford would still be in, while Elon would be out. This of course assumes Elon loses @ App St.
Furman has a slim shot..
Why Furman? Elon beat them.
Elon wins and App is out? a victory @ their place ought to eliminate somebody, wouldn't ya think?

[PantherRob82]

But I'm giving you SIU in the UNIdome, you gotta like that.

No. We want the OVC, MEAC, or Patriot champ in the first round, then someone not SIU.

[Jerbearasu]

Furman has a slim shot..
Why Furman? Elon beat them.
Elon wins and App is out? a victory @ their place ought to eliminate somebody, wouldn't ya think?

Not necessarily. It'd be tough to leave out any SoCon team that finishes with only 3 losses (of course this depends on what other teams from across the country do). Assuming Elon, Wofford and FU finish at 8-3 & one were to be left out it would be Wofford because that would mean they would lose to FU, combine that with the bad loss to App where FU was respectable.

If Elon beats App I don't see any way they are left out even if they lose to Western or Liberty.

[unigriff]

Panther fans are forgetting it is an Even year and realistically...we are not in the drivers seat.

SIU has control of the board...they win out they are Auto-bid..#4 seed.
UNI would have to get an at large which has also NEVER happened...even at 10-2.

UNI wins the auto-bid..they are a #3 seed, unfortunately for App State meaning a rematch of 2005;) in the Semi's

[apaladin]

Not necessarily. It'd be tough to leave out any SoCon team that finishes with only 3 losses (of course this depends on what other teams from across the country do). Assuming Elon, Wofford and FU finish at 8-3 & one were to be left out it would be Wofford because that would mean they would lose to FU, combine that with the bad loss to App where FU was respectable.

If Elon beats App I don't see any way they are left out even if they lose to Western or Liberty.

It really comes down to Furman @ Wofford Nov.22nd. If FU wins they will be 9-3 and WC 8-3. FU in WC out. This is of course assuming FU and WC both win out until 11-22 and I by no means am assuming this especially with GSU coming to FU 11-15.

[R.A.]

UT-Martin 5-1
EKU 5-1
TSU 4-1

TSU may have the tiebreakers but they have played one less game.

I know, but the point I was aluding too was that we shouldn't simply pick the team that's on top of conference just because they're at the top.

But Native is on point with his comments. Jacksonville State Versus Tennessee State could decide whether it's Tenn State's conference, or will the OVC be split between E. Kentucky and Tenn- Martin.

Gotta love the FCS.

[WrenFGun]

If UNH finishes with 2 losses, its not even a question they are out.

That's pretty funny. Keep 'em coming.

[rcny46]

That's pretty funny. Keep 'em coming.

I think he means that if UNH loses 2 in a row to end the season and finishes 8-3,it's curtains.That must mean that he is giving them a W at Villanova,since a loss there would translate to tanking 3 consecutive times to end the season.I don't think that's going to happen.

[youwouldno]

It really comes down to Furman @ Wofford Nov.22nd. If FU wins they will be 9-3 and WC 8-3. FU in WC out. This is of course assuming FU and WC both win out until 11-22 and I by no means am assuming this especially with GSU coming to FU 11-15.

I posted about this in the Elon thread but I don't agree. Wofford destroyed Elon and has a better overall resume... I think Elon is out in that scenario.

[GolfingGriz]

I posted about this in the Elon thread but I don't agree. Wofford destroyed Elon and has a better overall resume... I think Elon is out in that scenario.

They should be in that scenerio, but Wofford is not a fan of "shoulds"

[JayJ79]

No. We want the OVC, MEAC, or Patriot champ in the first round, then someone not SIU.

Unfortunately, with the way the selection committee operates, there is a 95% chance that if two teams from the MVFC make the playoffs, they will be bracketed to play each other in the second round (if both were to advance).

[JayJ79]

Panther fans are forgetting it is an Even year and realistically...we are not in the drivers seat.

SIU has control of the board...they win out they are Auto-bid..#4 seed.
UNI would have to get an at large which has also NEVER happened...even at 10-2.

The even year curse has been broken by the reconfiguration of the conference (addition of the dakota states, and us playing back-to-back in Macomb).

UNI has never had a 12 game regular season before, so obviously there is no precedence for at-large bids at 10-2. UNI has never finished with 9 division I wins (the USD game doesn't qualify, as this is their first transitional year) and NOT made the playoffs. Now if we somehow lose in the next three weeks, then that is a different story.

[coover]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edge316007
Other conferences besides the CAA exists, you know



Yes, but they don't really matter. xrolleyesx

Then the CAA should leave FCS and hold there own championship.

[BDKJMU]

Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina State
MVFC: Northern Iowa
OVC: Tennessee State
Patriot: Colgate
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Northwestern State

At-Large
1) Cal Poly
2) Montana
3) Richmond
4) Southern Illinois
5) Villanova
6) New Hampshire
7) Wofford
8) Elon

ROUND 1

#1 JMU v. Colgate
Villanova v. Elon

#4 UNI v. UNH
SIU v. Richmond

#2 App. State v. Tenn. State
Wofford v. SCSU

#3 Weber State v. Cal Poly
Montana v. Northwestern State

ROUND 2

#1 JMU v. Villanova
#4 UNI v. Richmond

#2 App. State v. Wofford
Montana v. Cal Poly

ROUND 3

#1 JMU v. Richmond
#2 App. State v. Cal Poly

REMATCHxnodx

Come on Skins, read the selection criteria, check your geography. Have to flip Elon and Colgate.

[crunifan]

I'm sure New Hampshire fans would love being sent to UNI a second straight year. We always seem to have exciting games that end in our favor.xnodx

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I'm sure New Hampshire fans would love being sent to UNI a second straight year. We always seem to have exciting games that end in our favor.xnodx

At least this year, I'd know my way around and am aware enough to not drink any Goose Island during the pre-game tailgating!! ;) But that beer is so good that I'd have to drink one with Rob after the game!!!! xlolx xlolx xlolx

[WrenFGun]

I'm sure New Hampshire fans would love being sent to UNI a second straight year. We always seem to have exciting games that end in our favor.xnodx

My heart cannot take it, again.

[leatherneck177]

Fair enough. But getting trounced by UNI does not help their cause. I guess they still should be considered though. If they win out, an 8-3 WIU team could make a compelling argument to get in, however, I think the last spot for at-large birds is going to go to a team from the CAA or So Con (Richmond, W&M, Furman, etc.).

I agree.

[siuham]

If WIU wins out (more importantly wins at SIU) they will snag the 2nd bid for the MVFC. It'll be tough for anyone else to get a bid, unless Elon, William & Mary, and UMass all stumble. Elon would need to lose two more, as well as UMass, and W&M would need to lose one more.

[mcveyrl]

If WIU wins out (more importantly wins at SIU) they will snag the 2nd bid for the MVFC. It'll be tough for anyone else to get a bid, unless Elon, William & Mary, and UMass all stumble. Elon would need to lose two more, as well as UMass, and W&M would need to lose one more.

W&M finishes the year at JMU and against Richmond...

[siuham]

W&M finishes the year at JMU and against Richmond...

Yeah I noticed that after I finished the post, I recanted in a different thread.

They'd have to beat Richmond to have a chance to get in, and doing that would probably knock out Richmond.

[jackrabbit1979]

If WIU wins out (more importantly wins at SIU) they will snag the 2nd bid for the MVFC. It'll be tough for anyone else to get a bid, unless Elon, William & Mary, and UMass all stumble. Elon would need to lose two more, as well as UMass, and W&M would need to lose one more.

What if WIU wins out and SDSU wins out, meaning both defeat SIU eliminating the Salukis from consideration. SDSU finished 8-4 with only one loss in the Valley, WIU finishes 8-3 with two losses in the Valley.

SDSU's losses are to FBS Iowa State, highly ranked Cal Poly & UNI, and a heartbreaker 3OT loss to McNeese.

WIU's losses are to FBS Arkansas, highly ranked UNI, and SDSU.

Both have 8 wins, SDSU has one more loss, SDSU won head to head, and SDSU played a much more difficult schedule.

Does SDSU get the bid ahead of WIU, or does the Valley become a one-bid league?

[siuham]

WIU would still get the bid, imo. SDSU shot themselves in the foot not winning either of their big OOC games, especially with McNeese's fall from grace.

For SDSU to still get in I think they might have to win the auto-bid. I don't know if they have a chance for at-large consideration.

[FargoBison]

WIU would still get the bid, imo. SDSU shot themselves in the foot not winning either of their big OOC games, especially with McNeese's fall from grace.

For SDSU to still get in I think they might have to win the auto-bid. I don't know if they have a chance for at-large consideration.

If SDSU wins out they get in, they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and would have beaten both WIU and SIU. It would be a slam dunk. Both WIU and SIU also lose one win because they have played non-counters.

[turfdoc]

Jack.....

I believe that WIU is out in your scenario because one of their wins is against Quincy (I assume a non-counter).

In the past, two Gateway teams finished with identical records and the team that won the head to head contest stayed home and the other went to the playoffs.

Never can tell what that committee will do but if WIU is 8-3 I think they are not in. And the Valley may be a one team league (although I do not see SIU losing both of those games)

[jackrabbit1979]

WIU would still get the bid, imo. SDSU shot themselves in the foot not winning either of their big OOC games, especially with McNeese's fall from grace.

For SDSU to still get in I think they might have to win the auto-bid. I don't know if they have a chance for at-large consideration.

I agree, those two OOC losses were big for SDSU, especially the heartbreaker against McNeese. Losing that game will could likely keep us out of the playoffs. Cal Poly was better than us, at least I can take that loss.

If SDSU wins out and doesn't get in, I think it says more about the strength of the Valley than SDSU. Go through the conference schedule with one loss and not get a playoff bid, that's rough.

However, I think we will still get the bid if all that happens. The win over WIU and SIU (on the road), plus the tough OOC schedule, plus the fact that SIU and WIU played weak schedules OOC will tip the scales in SDSU's favor. Only thing that might hold them back is the fact that we are new to FCS, and committee might not be as familiar.

We have a long ways to go until then however, especially playing SIU and NDSU on the road...

[mcveyrl]

Yeah I noticed that after I finished the post, I recanted in a different thread.

They'd have to beat Richmond to have a chance to get in, and doing that would probably knock out Richmond.

Yea, I think that if they lose to us, the game against Richmond is a play-in game for both UR and W&M.

[RabidRabbit]

If SDSU wins out they get in, they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and would have beaten both WIU and SIU. It would be a slam dunk. Both WIU and SIU also lose one win because they have played non-counters.

This is the biggest issue. The Jacks will have 8 D-I wins, IF they win out, and would be co-champs with UNI, but UNI would be auto-bid team, having won the head-to-head vs Jacks.

I doubt that a 7 D-I win MoValley team, that finishes behind the Jacks, with losses to the Jacks are selected instead of Jacks. xthumbsupx xthumbsupx

In that scenerio, either Selection committee ignors history, and goes with a single MVFC team (UNI), or the Rabbits run into the play-offs in their first year of eligibility.

Jacks need to win out and make it happen though!

[siuham]

If SDSU wins out they get in, they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and would have beaten both WIU and SIU. It would be a slam dunk. Both WIU and SIU also lose one win because they have played non-counters.

The problem with using playing a tough schedule as a reason to get in is that you usually need to win one of the tough games when it's OOC play. It's tough to use SIU/WIU as being good wins, especially if WIU loses at SIU and SIU loses to SDSU. WIU would then be a 4 loss team and SIU would be a 3 loss team, both with relatively easier OOC schedules, though Hampton is no pushover. Hampton is looking to be more on par with SFA (WIU's OOC) each week, sadly. I really liked that win early in the season.

As for toughest schedule outside of conference games, ask Albany how they feel about playing a tough schedule.

[FargoBison]

The problem with using playing a tough schedule as a reason to get in is that you usually need to win one of the tough games when it's OOC play. It's tough to use SIU/WIU as being good wins, especially if WIU loses at SIU and SIU loses to SDSU. WIU would then be a 4 loss team and SIU would be a 3 loss team, both with relatively easier OOC schedules, though Hampton is no pushover. Hampton is looking to be more on par with SFA (WIU's OOC) each week, sadly. I really liked that win early in the season.

As for toughest schedule outside of conference games, ask Albany how they feel about playing a tough schedule.

You are ignoring the fact that SDSU would have won their conference games and finished as Co-Champs with UNI having only 1 loss. SDSU finishing the season winning five straight games would also look good, especially when the last two would be @SIU and @NDSU.

That said, SDSU still has a tough road to travel and there isn't really any sense in getting too deep into this debate just yet. Lets see if they can beat SIU on the road first.

[gasou4389]

If Elon and Furman both finish with 5 losses, and GSU finishes at 7-4 would GSU get in as the third team from the SOCON?

[CopperCat]

I just don't see the committee giving the Big Sky two bids this year. UNI also has a loss to top 25 FBS team.

The Big Sky will have two teams in the playoffs. UM will probably be the at-large (they make a ton of money and they are better than you are giving them credit for). UM also lost to now top 25 Weber St., which IMO is a better team than alot of the teams ranked ahead of them. Then you have Weber getting the AQ out of the BSC. There's your two teams. I'd put money on it.

[Khan4Cats]

RR is right. If SDSU wins out, they will have 8 D-I wins. That will be the deciding factor, even more than head-to-head wins, for their getting in.

I don't think the committee will take only one MVFC team. SDSU must win out, though.

[Khan4Cats]

The Big Sky will have two teams in the playoffs. UM will probably be the at-large (they make a ton of money and they are better than you are giving them credit for). UM also lost to now top 25 Weber St., which IMO is a better team than alot of the teams ranked ahead of them. Then you have Weber getting the AQ out of the BSC. There's your two teams. I'd put money on it.

I agree. Maybe what he meant was two "at-large" bids, but not sure. Big Sky and MVFC will each get two entrants into the field.

Weber should win this week and claim the auto-bid, making the EWU game irrelevant other than for an outside shot at a seed (which I don't see happening as they have no OOC wins over FCS teams). Montana's toughest game left is Montana State, but even with a loss there and they should have 9 D-I wins. NAU will be on the outside with only 7 D-I wins should they win out, the field will be filled with 8 D-I win teams, with the exception of Cal-Poly.

[FargoBison]

The Big Sky will have two teams in the playoffs. UM will probably be the at-large (they make a ton of money and they are better than you are giving them credit for). UM also lost to now top 25 Weber St., which IMO is a better team than alot of the teams ranked ahead of them. Then you have Weber getting the AQ out of the BSC. There's your two teams. I'd put money on it.

I didn't write that very clearly but I was talking about seeds. Montana is a slam dunk as far as the playoffs are concerned.

[19Duke97]

Yea, I think that if they lose to us, the game against Richmond is a play-in game for both UR and W&M.

Agreed, this game and FU vs Wofford are the two clear play-in games at this point. Winner moves to the playoffs, loser goes home. Of course that is all pending a loss by W&M at JMU and Furman beating Ga Southern. If either of those two ar eflipped, that changes the environment again.

[Houndawg]

I agree, those two OOC losses were big for SDSU, especially the heartbreaker against McNeese. Losing that game will could likely keep us out of the playoffs. Cal Poly was better than us, at least I can take that loss.

If SDSU wins out and doesn't get in, I think it says more about the strength of the Valley than SDSU. Go through the conference schedule with one loss and not get a playoff bid, that's rough.

However, I think we will still get the bid if all that happens. The win over WIU and SIU (on the road), plus the tough OOC schedule, plus the fact that SIU and WIU played weak schedules OOC will tip the scales in SDSU's favor. Only thing that might hold them back is the fact that we are new to FCS, and committee might not be as familiar.

We have a long ways to go until then however, especially playing SIU and NDSU on the road...


xeyebrowx Our opponents OOC are 17-8, all have winning records, and while UND, being transitional, is weak, Nortwestern is #24 in the BCS poll and Hampton is no pushover.xnonox

[nmatsen]

I think he was referring to the fact that they played Cal Poly and McNeese state this year Non-Conference. Say all you want about Hampton and UND, they are not in the same league as McNeese and Poly. Not to mention that they played a Big XII School (the best conference in all the land this year, not a good one but one none the less) and Stephen F who is having somewhat of a down year but will still finish at .500 or better.

Face it, if, IF IF IF, the argument comes down to non-conf. they SDSU gets the edge over SIU and WIU.

[jackrabbit1979]

xeyebrowx Our opponents OOC are 17-8, all have winning records, and while UND, being transitional, is weak, Nortwestern is #24 in the BCS poll and Hampton is no pushover.xnonox

Sorry, I should have said weaker OOC schedules...compared to SDSU that is.

Our OOC in the order I would rank them:

Cal Poly
FBS Iowa State
Mcneese St
SF Austin

[Houndawg]

Sorry, I should have said weaker OOC schedules...compared to SDSU that is.

Our OOC in the order I would rank them:

Cal Poly
FBS Iowa State
Mcneese St
SF Austin

Agreed.xthumbsupx

[already123]

Quick question for all out there who know more than me....

If bubble teams like Maine, W&M, Furman, UMass, etc. all tank (like NAU has the last couple of weeks), does an 8-3 NAU sneak in??

[already123]

by tank, I mean split their remaining games or go 1 for 3

[dbackjon]

Quick question for all out there who know more than me....

If bubble teams like Maine, W&M, Furman, UMass, etc. all tank (like NAU has the last couple of weeks), does an 8-3 NAU sneak in??

First, we have to win those games...I think we will, but knowing Sauers' history...


It would take some upsets for NAU to be in. Too many good teams this year.

[already123]

So you're sayin there's a chance....?xlolx xrotatehx xlolx

[Grabholdofyosef]

If Elon only loses to ASU the rest of the way, If Wofford only loses to Furman the rest of the way and Furman wins out, that would leave

ASU 8-0, 10-2 (#2 seed if JMU wins out)

Elon 6-2, 9-3 (losses to Richmond, wofford, ASU)
Wofford 6-2, 8-3 (losses to south carolina, ASU, furman)
Furman 6-2, 9-3 (losses to v tech, Elon, ASU)

How do you distinguish between the three and would all three make it along with ASU?

I know its a lot of what ifs, but it is fun to speculate. I could also see the CAA getting 3 at large, so that would be only one left for the rest of the country. I know there would be controversy if that happened.

JMU, VIllanova, Richmond, New Hampshire, UMASS or W&M

[Edge316007]

Personally I think Elon with it's 3 FCS losses would be out and the other two would be in.

[ElonPride]

Personally I think Elon with it's 3 FCS losses would be out and the other two would be in.

Elon totally dominated Furman, and if the two finish with equal records, you think they (FU) would get the nod?

[KiddBrewer]

Elon totally dominated Furman, and if the two finish with equal records, you think they (FU) would get the nod?

VT > Richmond.

but i dont have an opinion on it, other than that. tough decision.

[smcwildcat]

I'm sure New Hampshire fans would love being sent to UNI a second straight year. We always seem to have exciting games that end in our favor.xnodx

Yeah in all good fun I wouldnt say that, you almost lost to the 16 seed in a dome at home....

[gophoenix]

If Elon only loses to ASU the rest of the way, If Wofford only loses to Furman the rest of the way and Furman wins out, that would leave

ASU 8-0, 10-2 (#2 seed if JMU wins out)

Elon 6-2, 9-3 (losses to Richmond, wofford, ASU)
Wofford 6-2, 8-3 (losses to south carolina, ASU, furman)
Furman 6-2, 9-3 (losses to v tech, Elon, ASU)

How do you distinguish between the three and would all three make it along with ASU?

I know its a lot of what ifs, but it is fun to speculate. I could also see the CAA getting 3 at large, so that would be only one left for the rest of the country. I know there would be controversy if that happened.

JMU, VIllanova, Richmond, New Hampshire, UMASS or W&M

How do you distinguish between the three?

One is Wofford is 8-3. Elon is 9-3. Furman is 8-3 (win over D-II team).

[B&G]

I think it doesn't matter how you slice it but 1 good SoCon and 2 good CAA teams will be left in the cold when the field is announced.

[youwouldno]

Elon totally dominated Furman, and if the two finish with equal records, you think they (FU) would get the nod?

And in this scenario, Furman will have beaten Wofford. Who destroyed Elon.

Head to head can't solve the problem.

[clenz]

Yeah in all good fun I wouldnt say that, you almost lost to the 16 seed in a dome at home....It was a damn good 16 seed though

[Cincy App]

How do you distinguish between the three?

One is Wofford is 8-3. Elon is 9-3. Furman is 8-3 (win over D-II team).

Elon would be the only team with 3 FCS losses. I think Elon's case would be the shakiest in that scenario. No telling what the PSC would do though.

An Elon win over ASU or a Furman loss to Wofford would help resolve the SoCon participants in the field! Or losses by ASU to Elon and WCU...

[gbhmt]

Quick question for all out there who know more than me....

If bubble teams like Maine, W&M, Furman, UMass, etc. all tank (like NAU has the last couple of weeks), does an 8-3 NAU sneak in??

No. Eight wins may be enough for some teams but when all of your losses are to the only good teams you play, it's tough to make an argument without a win against a very good team.

[matfu]

Elon would be the only team with 3 FCS losses. I think Elon's case would be the shakiest in that scenario. No telling what the PSC would do though.

An Elon win over ASU or a Furman loss to Wofford would help resolve the SoCon participants in the field! Or losses by ASU to Elon and WCU...

i would give furman first place becasue they would have finished strong and just beaten wofford. don't know who would get in between elon and wofford. hopefully both.

[matfu]

Elon totally dominated Furman, and if the two finish with equal records, you think they (FU) would get the nod?

-a huge factor in the past is how you finished:

-furman would have won their last 4 games including beating wofford head-to-head. that would give furman a huge advantage over wofford.

-elon would have lost to app state late in the season; othe than a win for them, the middle of the season triumph over furman doesn't help them in head-to-head competition witrh furman; their 9th win (vs. 8 i don't think helps them much either); i am just telling you the way it has gone over the last 10 years; speculation for sure as furman could easily lose to ga southern or wofford.

[matfu]

If Elon and Furman both finish with 5 losses, and GSU finishes at 7-4 would GSU get in as the third team from the SOCON?

almost never does a team with 4 losses get in...the 4th loss is usually the kiss of death; has happened a few times over the last 10 years (by memory) but not many.

[BDKJMU]

How do you distinguish between the three?

One is Wofford is 8-3. Elon is 9-3. Furman is 8-3 (win over D-II team).

There's your answer. Furman would have a 7-3 record vs Div I opponents. I've been saying for several weeks now, the only team that will make the field with less than 8 Div I wins will be Cal Poly, (as they have only 10 games due to their McNeese cancellation, only 9 Div I, as S. Dakota is a non counter this season, but 2 I-A opponents, one who they beat).

[Native]

almost never does a team with 4 losses get in...the 4th loss is usually the kiss of death; has happened a few times over the last 10 years (by memory) but not many.

...but this is a rare 12-game season...

[FUwolfpacker]

There's your answer. Furman would have a 7-3 record vs Div I opponents. I've been saying for several weeks now, the only team that will make the field with less than 8 Div I wins will be Cal Poly, (as they have only 10 games due to their McNeese cancellation, only 9 Div I, as S. Dakota is a non counter this season, but 2 I-A opponents, one who they beat).


Just taking a quick look at gophoenix's post...I think he went ahead and took out the win over the D-II team for FU. Furman would actually be 9-3 if they win out including a win over a D-II team...giving them an 8-3 record over D-I opponents (not 7-3).

[LarryBoy]

There's your answer. Furman would have a 7-3 record vs Div I opponents. I've been saying for several weeks now, the only team that will make the field with less than 8 Div I wins will be Cal Poly, (as they have only 10 games due to their McNeese cancellation, only 9 Div I, as S. Dakota is a non counter this season, but 2 I-A opponents, one who they beat).

That was either mistyped or misread. If Furman wins out, they will be 9-3 including a win over a D-II team, giving them 8 D-I wins. Maybe they were saying 8-3 + a D-II win.

[FUwolfpacker]

I think I beat you to that by 6 mins LB :)

I think that is what happened though since the post gophoenix quoted mentioned FU being 9-3 with a win over a D-II.

[gophoenix]

I think I beat you to that by 6 mins LB :)

I think that is what happened though since the post gophoenix quoted mentioned FU being 9-3 with a win over a D-II.

The reason the edge would go to Furman is 2 things if things are even or close.

1) The PSC committee has made it clear that attendance matters. Furman beats us there.
2) The PSC committee has made it clear that history weighs heavily. Elon has no history in the playoffs other than the big time snub in 1999. Furman has all sorts of history backing them up.

These two things work against Elon when compared to Furman. Furman still has two rivalry type games left where anything could happen. Heck, they could lose to GSU in 6OTs by a half point. Or they could stomp them. We could play close at Western or even lose. We could lose all 3. There is just too much left these last three weeks.

But overall, I don't think head to head schedules it what would snub Elon, I think it would be the above two items I listed.

[RabidRabbit]

almost never does a team with 4 losses get in...the 4th loss is usually the kiss of death; has happened a few times over the last 10 years (by memory) but not many.

The 4th loss is a big issue in 11 game seasons, and less of an issue for 12 game seasons. If team is 7-4 (11), and has a non-counter game, then that team hasn't met the 7 D-I win criteria. GA Southern last year fit that category.

An 8-4 team that has played all D-I vs auto-bid or GWFC (but not 1st year transitionals) teams will be in good shape to possible make the play-offs this year.

[Khan4Cats]

The 4th loss is a big issue in 11 game seasons, and less of an issue for 12 game seasons. If team is 7-4 (11), and has a non-counter game, then that team hasn't met the 7 D-I win criteria. GA Southern last year fit that category.

An 8-4 team that has played all D-I vs auto-bid or GWFC (but not 1st year transitionals) teams will be in good shape to possible make the play-offs this year.

Exactly. A couple of years ago, an OVC somehow played a 12 game schedule and got an at-large with an 8-4 record against all D-I competition. In that case, the 8 wins more than outweighed the 4 losses.

[CJHawkeyes]

The reason the edge would go to Furman is 2 things if things are even or close.

1) The PSC committee has made it clear that attendance matters. Furman beats us there.
2) The PSC committee has made it clear that history weighs heavily. Elon has no history in the playoffs other than the big time snub in 1999. Furman has all sorts of history backing them up.

These two things work against Elon when compared to Furman. Furman still has two rivalry type games left where anything could happen. Heck, they could lose to GSU in 6OTs by a half point. Or they could stomp them. We could play close at Western or even lose. We could lose all 3. There is just too much left these last three weeks.

But overall, I don't think head to head schedules it what would snub Elon, I think it would be the above two items I listed.


Attendance and history influence qualification? How stupid is that?

[youwouldno]

Those are not huge factors in this case... Furman, Wofford, and Elon are all private schools and none are at the top of FCS in attendance. So far as history, Wofford might get a slight boost due to (recent) past injustice, but Furman won't get a bump just for being a good program for a long time.

Elon's problem is quality of wins. Their #1 will be a home win against one of the other possibles, whereas Furman and Wofford will have road wins against such a team and, arguably, an overall more difficult schedule (in this scenario of course).

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm just glad no one is counting out Wofford.