Bracketology 2008, Week 2

[TheValleyRaider]

We're baaaaack xrotatehx

With but 4 weeks left in the season, it's entirely possible these predictions will be closer to accurate. Perhaps not, but really, accuracy was never my intention :p. Just remember, all selections and brackets are done IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY

Without further ado, let's get 16

Autobids
Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina State
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee-Martin-*
Patriot: Colgate-&
Southern: Wofford-^
Southland: Texas State-%
*I realize that Tenn St. has actually beaten the other 2 1-loss teams in the OVC (UTM and EKU), but I'm crediting UTM with already having won 5 games, thus forcing TSU to win the 2 conference games they have in hand just to remain tied
&-According to Patriot League tiebreaking procedure, Colgate and Holy Cross get precedent over Lafayette because they beat Bucknell and Lehigh, respectively, while Lafayette's wins are only against Fordham and Georgetown. Without any other tiebreaker taking effect with Colgate and Holy Cross, I chose Colgate on the basis of a better overall record
^-Wofford gets the tiebreaker over App St. by virtue of having beaten 3rd Place Elon. If there is another tiebreaker that would take precedent at this time, I'd be willing to make changes
%-TSU has the only win between the 3 tied schools, over SFA, while NWSt has yet to play either

At-Large Bids
The '8+1'
1-Montana
2-Richmond
3-Appalachian State
4-Cal Poly
5-Villanova
6-New Hampshire
7-Northern Iowa
8-Elon
+1-Western Illinois
That was painfully tough. I actually like those Top 8 better than any of the teams below them. Still, I have a formula and I'm sticking to it. Western replaces the lowest team, Elon, for this week. WIU was the next highest team not in the CAA or SoCon, and I couldn't justify dropping Elon for a 5th CAA or 4th SoCon (especially when they'd be behind Elon in the conference)

Your Field of 16
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Colgate
James Madison
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Richmond
South Carolina State
Southern Illinois
Tennessee-Martin
Texas State
Villanova
Weber State
Western Illinois
Wofford

[TheValleyRaider]

As a reminder, the Field of 16
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Colgate
James Madison
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Richmond
South Carolina State
Southern Illinois
Tennessee-Martin
Texas State
Villanova
Weber State
Western Illinois
Wofford

Now to bracket

Seeds
Top 4 get seeds, based mostly on polling, some attempt at regionalization
1-James Madison
2-Wofford
3-Weber State
4-Richmond
JMU is #1, no questions asked. Wofford gets the nod at #2 as best in their conference. Weber gets #3 for the timebeing, hurt with 2 losses (even if they are both FBS) and D-II wins. I'm taking Richmond at #4, though you could make a case for Appalachian or Montana as well right now

Matchups
Matchups are mostly geographical, with some historical considerations. Intraconference matchups are avoided at all costs, and busing is preferred to flying
James Madison with Western Illinois
Wofford with South Carolina State
Weber State with Texas State
Richmond with Northern Iowa
Appalachian State with Villanova
Colgate with New Hampshire
Montana with Cal Poly
Southern Illinois with Tennessee-Martin
These were pretty tough. Wofford-SC State was easy, as was Weber-Texas St and SIU-UTM. The latter two are historical matchups the committee likes (Big Sky-SLC, MVFC-OVC). I didn't want the Montana-Cal Poly rematch, but it's happened before. Colgate and UNH went together being the northeasterly teams, JMU got WIU as the Leathernecks were the last team in, and the rest kind of shook out that way

Home Teams
Seeded teams are guaranteed home games, the rest are chosen based on attendance and past history of bidding
James Madison hosts Western Illinois
Wofford hosts South Carolina State
Weber State hosts Texas State
Richmond hosts Northern Iowa
Appalachian State hosts Villanova
New Hampshire hosts Colgate
Montana hosts Cal Poly
Southern Illinois hosts Tennessee-Martin
ASU and Montana were pretty obvious hosts, UNH would outbid Colgate in this instance, I would guess, though that's not a great bidding war. Same with SIU over UTM, in spite of SIU's history of weaker bids

Bracketing
Quarterfinal matchups are pieced together looking at a mix of geography and seeding. Games listed by the Home team
James Madison and Southern Illinois
Wofford and New Hampshire
Weber State and Appalachian State
Richmond and Montana
JMU and Wofford, as the top seeds, get the weaker hosts. Arguably, Weber and Richmond should actually switch, but the potential for intraconference Quarterfinals was too great, and I didn't want that, which also explains why JMU would get SIU/UTM, and not UNH/Colgate

So here's your brackets

#1-James Madison
Western Illinois

Southern Illinois
Tennessee-Martin

#4-Richmond
Northern Iowa

Montana
Cal Poly

#2-Wofford
South Carolina State

New Hampshire
Colgate

#3-Weber State
Texas State

Appalachian State
Villanova

Undoubtedly, this will get both easier only in the sense that some teams will fall short of the 7-win requirement, and fall off the potential at-large list

[LehighFan11]

I don't know about Richmond as a seed, they are one loss away from not being in the playoffs.

[LehighFan11]

I like the possible 2nd round matchup of App st @ Weber St. I'm assuming App wouldn't be too happy about making that trip.

[mcveyrl]

I don't know about Richmond as a seed, they are one loss away from not being in the playoffs.

Yea, my guess is that Cal Poly gets the other seed and they bracket them and Weber (or Montana) to meet in the semis.

[BobcatJH]

Great post!!

[TheValleyRaider]

Yea, my guess is that Cal Poly gets the other seed and they bracket them and Weber (or Montana) to meet in the semis.

The only thing holding me back from giving Cal Poly a seed is their loss to Montana. Yes, they have an FBS win to counter it, but head-to-head, if Montana is unseeded, I can't in good conscience seed the Mustangs

The 4th seed was a tough one. I went with Richmond as a nod to the CAA's overall strength, though looking back, yeah, a 6-3 team probably shouldn't be up that high. The easiest thing to do then would be to give their seed to Montana, keep their matchup with UNI but switch the home game on account of UNI likely bidding high, and that bracket looks like this:

#4-Montana
Cal Poly

Northern Iowa
Richmond

The next best team I could have put in their was Villanova, but I didn't feel right seeding Nova after they had just lost, even if it was to JMU. They, along with ASU and Montana, would be the most likely to play themselves into a seed xtwocentsx

[ur2k]

I don't know about Richmond as a seed, they are one loss away from not being in the playoffs.

Agreed. I'd give Nova a seed over us considering they beat us.

[Grizzaholic]

The only thing holding me back from giving Cal Poly a seed is their loss to Montana. Yes, they have an FBS win to counter it, but head-to-head, if Montana is unseeded, I can't in good conscience seed the Mustangs

The 4th seed was a tough one. I went with Richmond as a nod to the CAA's overall strength, though looking back, yeah, a 6-3 team probably shouldn't be up that high. The easiest thing to do then would be to give their seed to Montana, keep their matchup with UNI but switch the home game on account of UNI likely bidding high, and that bracket looks like this:

#4-Montana
Cal Poly

Northern Iowa
Richmond

The next best team I could have put in their was Villanova, but I didn't feel right seeding Nova after they had just lost, even if it was to JMU. They, along with ASU and Montana, would be the most likely to play themselves into a seed xtwocentsx

I was just going to post this but you beat me to it and corrected it.

[Poly Pigskin]

Why not flop Cal Poly and Texas State? That way you avoid the first round rematch. You may be right since there is precedent for doing it, but having 2 BSC teams would make it easy to avoid.

[TheValleyRaider]

Why not flop Cal Poly and Texas State? That way you avoid the first round rematch. You may be right since there is precedent for doing it, but having 2 BSC teams would make it easy to avoid.

I put Cal Poly with Montana only because I felt Weber, as a seed, should get the lower-rated opponent. Certainly switching Cal Poly and Texas State works well enough

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Excellent work as always ValleyRaider. It's a lot of work that you do and a great job of keeping the information in front of us with the reasoning which is pretty darned sound for sure.

The only thing I wonder about with the committee is if Weber would get a seed. Weber is good enough to play at home for 3 straight if that were to happen and the committee would be putting the NCAA in a money loser and if their integrity wouldn't be questioned too much they may go with Cal Poly or Montana as the seed. What are your thoughts on that as far as seeding Weber? I would say that they probably should get it but...

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Agreed. I'd give Nova a seed over us considering they beat us.

Well I would give the seed to Richmond, considering I like Richmond more than the other teams considered... :D

[TheValleyRaider]

Excellent work as always ValleyRaider. It's a lot of work that you do and a great job of keeping the information in front of us with the reasoning which is pretty darned sound for sure.

The only thing I wonder about with the committee is if Weber would get a seed. Weber is good enough to play at home for 3 straight if that were to happen and the committee would be putting the NCAA in a money loser and if their integrity wouldn't be questioned too much they may go with Cal Poly or Montana as the seed. What are your thoughts on that as far as seeding Weber? I would say that they probably should get it but...

Thanks for the kudos xbowx xthumbsupx

The Committee is actually pretty good about rewarding teams that do well in the regular season with seeds even if their attendance is poor. All Weber would have to do is bid the minimum, and if they win out and take the Big Sky outright, they should be a seed, no questions asked. If they were to lose, and tie Montana for the Big Sky title, you could see justification for Montana to get seeded over them, but more likely would see both miss out on seeds. It's a tougher case given Montana is consistently rated higher in the polls, but I think Weber gets the benefit of the head-to-head win when the decision gets made

[AZGrizFan]

#1-James Madison
Western Illinois

Southern Illinois
Tennessee-Martin

#4-Richmond
Northern Iowa

Montana
Cal Poly

#2-Wofford
South Carolina State

New Hampshire
Colgate

#3-Weber State
Texas State

Appalachian State
Villanova

This might be the strongest playoff field EVER. xeyebrowx

[Houndawg]

#1-James Madison
Western Illinois

Southern Illinois
Tennessee-Martin

#4-Richmond
Northern Iowa

Montana
Cal Poly

#2-Wofford
South Carolina State

New Hampshire
Colgate

#3-Weber State
Texas State

Appalachian State
Villanova

This might be the strongest playoff field EVER. xeyebrowx

You have the MVC all on on side of trhe bracket but the Big Sky on opposite sides? xeyebrowx

[slycat]

I would like to travel to Weber St if we were sent there. It just sucks that by the time the brackets are released its too late to get a deal on plane tickets.

[TheValleyRaider]

You have the MVC all on on side of trhe bracket but the Big Sky on opposite sides? xeyebrowx

MVFC seems to be hurt by the fact that they get slotted in less than favorable draws, and it's easier to look at the Big Sky teams and keep them seperate. Certainly it could be rearranged to put one on the opposite side of the bracket, but that might take some shuffling. How would you change it?

[PantherRob82]

Yea, my guess is that Cal Poly gets the other seed and they bracket them and Weber (or Montana) to meet in the semis.
Cal Poly might not even make it.

[slostang]

Cal Poly might not even make it.

Same could be said for UNI.

[UNI Pike]

Same could be said for UNI.

We know. xlolx

[PantherRob82]

Same could be said for UNI.

I'm talking about your cancelled game, not your play.

[malibudude]

8 for 8 on making UNI games this year. Can I make all 12? Probably not. Stupid game at Southern Utah to end the season

Do not sleep on the TBirds, they are a tidy side, it will be cold, windy and about about 1800 people at the game. Not an environment the Panthers are used to playing in. Their QB is very good and Poots at WR is exceptional.

[UNI Pike]

Cedar City, UT is not an easy place to get to. End of the road, quite literally. Hence, the reference.

[PantherRob82]

8 for 8 on making UNI games this year. Can I make all 12? Probably not. Stupid game at Southern Utah to end the season

Do not sleep on the TBirds, they are a tidy side, it will be cold, windy and about about 1800 people at the game. Not an environment the Panthers are used to playing in. Their QB is very good and Poots at WR is exceptional.

What don't you get? 2 trips to Utah in one year is expensive.

[appstate38]

EAST COAST BIAS!!!! EAST COAST BIAS!!!!!

Sorry felt like it needed to be said before one of our left coast faithful started to say it....xsmiley_wix

[I Bleed Purple]

Attendance wise, Weber should be able to get 10k for playoff games. I'll have to check when the BYU-Utah game is, but if it's after that, then there's a good chance of getting butts in seats. We've had 12k+ in recent history, McBride's first game four years ago filled the stands. I think it's doable.

[WrenFGun]

EAST COAST BIAS!!!! EAST COAST BIAS!!!!!

Sorry felt like it needed to be said before one of our left coast faithful started to say it....xsmiley_wix

xthumbsupx

[skinny_uncle]

You have the MVC all on on side of trhe bracket but the Big Sky on opposite sides? xeyebrowx
It weems to happen to the Valley (formerly known as the Gateway) quite regularly.UNI and SIU would have met in the semis last year had Delaware not thrown a monkey wrench in the Panther plans.

[Houndawg]

It weems to happen to the Valley (formerly known as the Gateway) quite regularly.UNI and SIU would have met in the semis last year had Delaware not thrown a monkey wrench in the Panther plans.

Yep, and if memory serves, the CAA were distributed through all the brackets.xnodx

[siuham]

Using your teams, with the change to Montana as #4. Home teams in bold.

#1 James Madison
Colgate

Southern Illinois
Tennessee-Martin

#4 Montana
Texas State

Cal Poly
Villanova

#2 Wofford
S.C. State

Northern Iowa
Richmond

#3 Weber State
New Hampshire

App. State
Western Illinois

---

Keeps most of the teams on the same side of the Mississippi. Northern Iowa/Richmond could be an either or for the home team, but I gave the nod to UNI based on Record they will have at the end of the season.

The same could be said for App State/Western Illinois, but WIU doesn't have near the tradition that ASU has.

My only qualm is the Cal Poly/Villanova game, because I think they're both too good of teams to be playing each other in the first round, but trying to put them anywhere else gives the same result.

[TheValleyRaider]

Using your teams, with the change to Montana as #4. Home teams in bold.

#1 James Madison
Colgate

Southern Illinois
Tennessee-Martin

#4 Montana
Texas State

Cal Poly
Villanova

#2 Wofford
S.C. State

Northern Iowa
Richmond

#3 Weber State
New Hampshire

App. State
Western Illinois

---

Keeps most of the teams on the same side of the Mississippi. Northern Iowa/Richmond could be an either or for the home team, but I gave the nod to UNI based on Record they will have at the end of the season.

The same could be said for App State/Western Illinois, but WIU doesn't have near the tradition that ASU has.

My only qualm is the Cal Poly/Villanova game, because I think they're both too good of teams to be playing each other in the first round, but trying to put them anywhere else gives the same result.

The only real quibble I might have with it is splitting Colgate and New Hampshire. If both get in, I think they get matched-up geographically and you go from there. Villanova really becomes the northeastern outlier then, unlike last week where Lafayette was a great match for them and UNH had to be figured in elsewhere. Otherwise, that's certainly plausible

I'm guessing the rationale for Colgate going to JMU is that Colgate is the lowest seed remaining for the #1 team after the more likely pairings of UTM at SIU and SC State at Wofford?

[griz&beer]

Using your teams, with the change to Montana as #4. Home teams in bold.

#1 James Madison
Colgate

Southern Illinois
Tennessee-Martin

#4 Montana
Texas State

Cal Poly
Villanova

#2 Wofford
S.C. State

Northern Iowa
Richmond

#3 Weber State
New Hampshire

App. State
Western Illinois

---

Keeps most of the teams on the same side of the Mississippi. Northern Iowa/Richmond could be an either or for the home team, but I gave the nod to UNI based on Record they will have at the end of the season.

The same could be said for App State/Western Illinois, but WIU doesn't have near the tradition that ASU has.

My only qualm is the Cal Poly/Villanova game, because I think they're both too good of teams to be playing each other in the first round, but trying to put them anywhere else gives the same result.

That looks good to me.xthumbsupx That would be one wild ride to the NC that is for sure.

[94Terrier]

Using your teams, with the change to Montana as #4. Home teams in bold.

#1 James Madison
Colgate

Southern Illinois
Tennessee-Martin

#4 Montana
Texas State

Cal Poly
Villanova

#2 Wofford
S.C. State

Northern Iowa
Richmond

#3 Weber State
New Hampshire

App. State
Western Illinois

---
.

Good many assumptions with whata I'm about to say, but there would be some hellacious quarterfinal matchups:

JMU vs SIU (Nod to JMU)
Montana vs Cal Poly (rematch)
Wofford vs N Iowa (ooooooooohh, aaaaaaaaaahhh)
Weber St vs Appy (barnburner) or NHU vs Appy (barnburner)

[siuham]

The reason I split NH/Colgate was I didn't think New Hampshire deserved having, arguably the 'worst' team in the play-off bracket. Though it's not hard to say that honor belongs to SCSU. I think Tenn-Martin is a decent enough team to warrant not playing a seed team in the first round, plus getting matched up with SIU (again) is likely.

But you're probably right, NH/Colgate would get paired regardless.

[crusader11]

The PL champ would not be the worst team in the tournament, imo. SCSU, although they have put up a nice record, is not on the same field as the upper echelon teams in the PL.

[MaximumBobcat]

So far, everyone seems to have projected TxSt on the road. If we manage to reel off the rest of our games and finish 9-3, our AD is going to be willing to shell out a lot of cash for a home game. Just something to think about...

[WileECoyote06]

The reason I split NH/Colgate was I didn't think New Hampshire deserved having, arguably the 'worst' team in the play-off bracket. Though it's not hard to say that honor belongs to SCSU.

Ironic statement coming from a Saluki fan.

[TheValleyRaider]

So far, everyone seems to have projected TxSt on the road. If we manage to reel off the rest of our games and finish 9-3, our AD is going to be willing to shell out a lot of cash for a home game. Just something to think about...

Texas State's difficulty in getting a home game stems from their potential first round matchup. At this point, they'd likely get Weber or Montana. If it were a fair fight, I'm certain they would outbid Weber, but it seems likely to me at this point that Weber would be seeded, so if it's seeded Weber vs. unseeded Texas St., you're SOL

It also could be Texas State vs. Montana, with no seed to designate a home team. In that case, I'm not sure there's any team in the country that could outbid Montana for a home game

It's a tough spot to be in if you're Texas State, that's for certain xpeacex

[siuham]

Ironic statement coming from a Saluki fan.

The best team SCSU beat this year is one SIU beat with back-ups in for two quarters?

Waiting for the irony.

And explain to me what teams beyond Colgate SCSU is better than in the playoff projection above.

[siuham]

Texas State's difficulty in getting a home game stems from their potential first round matchup. At this point, they'd likely get Weber or Montana. If it were a fair fight, I'm certain they would outbid Weber, but it seems likely to me at this point that Weber would be seeded, so if it's seeded Weber vs. unseeded Texas St., you're SOL

It also could be Texas State vs. Montana, with no seed to designate a home team. In that case, I'm not sure there's any team in the country that could outbid Montana for a home game

It's a tough spot to be in if you're Texas State, that's for certain xpeacex

Basically echoing what he said about Texas State not getting a home game.

Their potential match-ups, barring some crazy mucking up of FCS in the coming weeks, are:

Montana, Weber State, and Cal Poly. These are region based, and all have a genuine argument for a seed. The only home game I can see TxSt getting is from Weber State. And that's assuming they aren't seeded.

[uofmman1122]

I will kick a baby if we have to play Cal Poly in the first round.

I don't want to play them again this year.

I would like to play Weber again, though. xnodx

[WileECoyote06]

The best team SCSU beat this year is one SIU beat with back-ups in for two quarters?

Waiting for the irony.

And explain to me what teams beyond Colgate SCSU is better than in the playoff projection above.

Easy to say that now, but the scores tell a different story. At this point, the statement is subjective and it's too early to say they are the worst team in the field. We don't even know if SCSU, Texas State, WIU, UTM, or any of the current 'leading' teams are going to make it into the playoffs.

It's one thing to predict the field; it's even fair to predict their performance. However, to claim they are the worst team in is baseless, and can't be proven. Yes you have the computer numbers, but computers base their rankings on who you play, not on who you are.

I thought the name of this site was anygivensaturday. . . or is that just an empty nickname?

[appstate38]

I have noticed that everytime one of these brackets comes out it has Wofford or Elon as the SoCon autobid. IF the Apps beat Wofford then you guys may have to come to grips with the possiblity that the Road to the National Championship will run through Boone once again. I know you all are hoping again hope that one of our SoCon brethen can knock us off. That may still happen, but if it doesn't you need to prepare yourselves for having to visit Boone once again in Nov/Dec.

[purplepeopleeaterv2]

I have noticed that everytime one of these brackets comes out it has Wofford or Elon as the SoCon autobid. IF the Apps beat Wofford then you guys may have to come to grips with the possiblity that the Road to the National Championship will run through Boone once again. I know you all are hoping again hope that one of our SoCon brethen can knock us off. That may still happen, but if it doesn't you need to prepare yourselves for having to visit Boone once again in Nov/Dec.

More than likely it will be running through Harrisonburg this year. Well here is to hoping at least xpeacex

[appfan2008]

More than likely it will be running through Harrisonburg this year. Well here is to hoping at least xpeacex

there is a damn good chance it will run through both boone and harrisonburg!!! xcoffeex

[Cranium716]

there is a damn good chance it will run through both boone and harrisonburg!!! xcoffeex

I'm hoping for a JMU #1 seed and an ASU #2 seed...rubber match NC? Could be one of the best ever! xeekx

[purplepeopleeaterv2]

there is a damn good chance it will run through both boone and harrisonburg!!! xcoffeex

I'm all for that as long as we stay out of THAT forsaken area!xrotatehx

[appstate38]

I'm hoping for a JMU #1 seed and an ASU #2 seed...rubber match NC? Could be one of the best ever! xeekx

IF that were to happen, I think we would need a much bigger stadium. But we still have a long way to go before that.

[Cranium716]

IF that were to happen, I think we would need a much bigger stadium. But we still have a long way to go before that.

Yeah, I was getting a little ahead of myself...I just couldn't contain my excitement about the possibility! xnodx

[URMite]

there is a damn good chance we will run through both boone and harrisonburg!!! xcoffeex

Fixed it for ya

Just Kidding! But wanted to bring this thread back to the main discussion.

With one last sidetrack...when I saw UR getting the seed over ASU and Montana...I thought it must be based on expected attendance...Damn it, now there is coffee all over my screen!

[appfan2008]

I'm hoping for a JMU #1 seed and an ASU #2 seed...rubber match NC? Could be one of the best ever! xeekx

I dont want to burst your bubble but the game I still want to see and have been hoping for for some time is a ASU/Montana final

[uofmman1122]

I dont want to burst your bubble but the game I still want to see and have been hoping for for some time is a ASU/Montana finalYou and me both. xthumbsupx

BTW, history has a habit of repeating itself. xwhistlexxlolxxsmiley_wix

[appfan2008]

You and me both. xthumbsupx

BTW, history has a habit of repeating itself. xwhistlexxlolxxsmiley_wix

we will see the outcome may change as well on this side of the mississippi

[UNIFanSince1983]

I would love for UNI to meet App if not in the Championship, then at least somewhere along the way...Still have bad feelings about how 2005 ended

[siuham]

Easy to say that now, but the scores tell a different story. At this point, the statement is subjective and it's too early to say they are the worst team in the field. We don't even know if SCSU, Texas State, WIU, UTM, or any of the current 'leading' teams are going to make it into the playoffs.

It's one thing to predict the field; it's even fair to predict their performance. However, to claim they are the worst team in is baseless, and can't be proven. Yes you have the computer numbers, but computers base their rankings on who you play, not on who you are.

I thought the name of this site was anygivensaturday. . . or is that just an empty nickname?

Because the MEAC and PL are historically weak. They spend the year beating up on themselves and playing bad OOC games. Good OOC games they normally lose.

I didn't say that SCSU is the worst team in FCS, nor did I even look at a computer ranking to 'determine' what team is the worst.

Until the MEAC can step up and do something in the play-offs, I don't see how you can tell me the MEAC is some great powerful conference that has great playoff success. A MEAC member hasn't won a game since 1999 and none have been out of the second round since FAMU won it all in 1979.

It wasn't a baseless accusation, and in fact makes a quite bit of sense. The PL has had similar play-off 'success.'

[LehighFan11]

Sounds like everyone wants a shot at App.

[appstate38]

Sounds like everyone wants a shot at App.

Could always get on the OOC regular season schedule!!!

[appfan2008]

Sounds like everyone wants a shot at App.

Bring it!!!

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I have noticed that everytime one of these brackets comes out it has Wofford or Elon as the SoCon autobid. IF the Apps beat Wofford then you guys may have to come to grips with the possiblity that the Road to the National Championship will run through Boone once again. I know you all are hoping again hope that one of our SoCon brethen can knock us off. That may still happen, but if it doesn't you need to prepare yourselves for having to visit Boone once again in Nov/Dec.

That's because this Bracketology is based on if the season ended today. When TVR does Week 3 there will be a completely different snapshot of "if the season ended today". If App takes care of business on Halloween, then you'll have the view you prefer to see. The beauty of TVR's Bracketology is that it doesn't attempt to forecast or assume results about games yet to be played.

[appstate38]

That's because this Bracketology is based on if the season ended today. When TVR does Week 3 there will be a completely different snapshot of "if the season ended today". If App takes care of business on Halloween, then you'll have the view you prefer to see. The beauty of TVR's Bracketology is that it doesn't attempt to forecast or assume results about games yet to be played.

How do you arrive to the conclusion that TVR's bracket is not forecasting when he picked Wofford to be the autobid, when they and App have the same conference record. That seems to be forecasting to me. Wofford is a good team and could very well be the auto qualifier but that is yet to be determined.

[Cranium716]

How do you arrive to the conclusion that TVR's bracket is not forecasting when he picked Wofford to be the autobid, when they and App have the same conference record. That seems to be forecasting to me. Wofford is a good team and could very well be the auto qualifier but that is yet to be determined.

In the initial post, TVR states, "Wofford gets the tiebreaker over App St. by virtue of having beaten 3rd Place Elon. If there is another tiebreaker that would take precedent at this time, I'd be willing to make changes."

That's why Wofford is currently the autobid.

[appstate38]

In the initial post, TVR states, "Wofford gets the tiebreaker over App St. by virtue of having beaten 3rd Place Elon. If there is another tiebreaker that would take precedent at this time, I'd be willing to make changes."

That's why Wofford is currently the autobid.

Fair enough.... Good thing it will be settled on the fieldxthumbsupx

[appfan2008]

Fair enough.... Good thing it will be settled on the fieldxthumbsupx

54 hours!!!

[19Duke97]

Good many assumptions with whata I'm about to say, but there would be some hellacious quarterfinal matchups:

JMU vs SIU (Nod to JMU)
Montana vs Cal Poly (rematch)
Wofford vs N Iowa (ooooooooohh, aaaaaaaaaahhh)
Weber St vs Appy (barnburner) or NHU vs Appy (barnburner)

CAA go 1-3 in the first round? That will not happen, you can write that down.

[Grizzaholic]

54 hours!!!

How do you like having night games?

[Leopard's Claw]

sorry- a little too quick at the keyboard....what I meant was-

"According to Patriot League tiebreaking procedure, Colgate and Holy Cross get precedent over Lafayette because they beat Bucknell and Lehigh, respectively, while Lafayette's wins are only against Fordham and Georgetown. Without any other tiebreaker taking effect with Colgate and Holy Cross, I chose Colgate on the basis of a better overall record"

After starting out the season at 6-1, do you really think Lafayette will lose the next 4 games?

[TheValleyRaider]

sorry- a little too quick at the keyboard....what I meant was-

"According to Patriot League tiebreaking procedure, Colgate and Holy Cross get precedent over Lafayette because they beat Bucknell and Lehigh, respectively, while Lafayette's wins are only against Fordham and Georgetown. Without any other tiebreaker taking effect with Colgate and Holy Cross, I chose Colgate on the basis of a better overall record"

After starting out the season at 6-1, do you really think Lafayette will lose the next 4 games?

Not at all (Saturday, maybe though ;))

Just as the conversation above you noted, this is all based on the principle of the season ending today. If that were the case, Colgate and Holy Cross would win the tiebreaker over Lafayette based on having beaten teams higher in the PL standings. Those are the rules, according the PL, and that's what I'm following

I'm actually not trying to be predictive at all. Guessing who will win games is an inexact science, at best. Instead, I'm proposing that for this, at least, we judge teams simply based on what they have accomplished to date. This is not final by any means, and Lafayette is still very much in the PL title hunt.

[elcid96]

I only see two SOCON teams in the playoffs. I guess that could be true since it happened that way last year.

[appstate38]

How do you like having night games?

Night Games are great!!! Seems to add an extra charge to the atmosphere. I remember when we played Marshall at night in Kidd Brewer. I think it was the 95 season. It was incredible to be in that stadium on that night. If memory serves it was the first night regular season game in Boone in quite some time.

[hawkeye]

It weems to happen to the Valley (formerly known as the Gateway) quite regularly.UNI and SIU would have met in the semis last year had Delaware not thrown a monkey wrench in the Panther plans.

Skinny, Would love for this to take shape and UT Martin visit SIU again. Maybe this time we can knock down the last minute touchdown pass.:)

[bigchocolate]

The best team SCSU beat this year is one SIU beat with back-ups in for two quarters?

Waiting for the irony.

And explain to me what teams beyond Colgate SCSU is better than in the playoff projection above.

"Yes" indicate a very good chance of loosing to SCSU. This is not Del State of 2007.
xoopsx

#1 James Madison Not
Colgate Yes

Southern Illinois Yes
Tennessee-Martin Yes

#4 Montana????
Texas State ????

Cal Poly ????
Villanova????

#2 Wofford Yes
S.C. State

Northern Iowa ???
Richmond ?????

#3 Weber State ????
New Hampshire Yes

App. State Yes
Western Illinois Yes

I'll change my mind this year when ONE of the SoCon teams start playing some defense.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Wow you really think all those teams have a 'VERY' good chance of losing to SCSU?

I respectfully disagree

[skinny_uncle]

Skinny, Would love for this to take shape and UT Martin visit SIU again. Maybe this time we can knock down the last minute touchdown pass.:)
That's not the best plan. Ask the folks at Missouri State.

[siuham]

That's not the best plan. Ask the folks at Missouri State.

Or 'nova. Ouch.

@bigchocolate:

I disagree...a lot. But you're completely entitled to think in that manner about your team.

Just have SCSU prove it come playoff time.

[bigchocolate]

"Yes" indicate a very good chance of loosing to SCSU. This is not Del State of 2007.
xoopsx

#1 James Madison Not
Colgate Yes

Southern Illinois Yes
Tennessee-Martin Yes

#4 Montana????
Texas State ????

Cal Poly ????
Villanova????

#2 Wofford Yes
S.C. State

Northern Iowa ???
Richmond ?????

#3 Weber State ????
New Hampshire Yes

App. State Yes>>>Not
Western Illinois Yes

I'll change my mind this year when ONE of the SoCon teams start playing some defense.

App finally started playing a little defense as their game with WOCO progressed. xbowx

[Houndawg]

"Yes" indicate a very good chance of loosing to SCSU. This is not Del State of 2007.
xoopsx

#1 James Madison Not
Colgate Yes

Southern Illinois Yes
Tennessee-Martin Yes

#4 Montana????
Texas State ????

Cal Poly ????
Villanova????

#2 Wofford Yes
S.C. State

Northern Iowa ???
Richmond ?????

#3 Weber State ????
New Hampshire Yes

App. State Yes
Western Illinois Yes

I'll change my mind this year when ONE of the SoCon teams start playing some defense.

You probably want to put a "yes" by Northern Iowa, since they lost to SIU. And let me have some of what you're smoking, Hampton wasn't as close as the score, SIU held them to 47 yards rushing in their first game with a new defense.