Playoff Prognostications

[crusader11]

There has been a lot of playoff talk on the board today, but no prediction of the field. Here is what I got.

The Auto-Bids:

Big Sky- Weber State
Colonial- James Madison
MEAC- South Carolina State
Missouri Valley- Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley- Tennessee-Martin
Patriot League- Holy Cross
Southern Conference- Appalachian State
Southland- Texas State

At Large (in no order):

Montana
Northern Arizona
New Hampshire
Villanova
Cal Poly
Northern Iowa
Wofford
Elon

Last 2 out: William and Mary and Richmond
Last 2 in: Cal Poly and Northern Arizona

Others considered: Liberty, Furman, UMASS, Western Illinois, and Dayton (no, not really Dayton, but thought I would give Detroit Flyer something to smile about xlolx )

[griz&beer]

NAU no not this time. lets say Western IL.

[aggiemba]

If UC Davis wins out and also wins big over Cal Poly, I think they may be in, and no I don't have my homer glasses on:D

[FCS Go!]

NAU no not this time. lets say Western IL.

Yep. I'd also take Lafayette over HC. HC could lose their last two games (@Lafayette & @ Colgate) though Lafayette has a tough one @ Colgate this week. Richmond over UNH too.

[JMU Duke Dog]

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

Big Sky
Montana (11-1)
*Weber State (10-2) – #3 Seed

CAA
*James Madison (10-1) – #1 Seed
New Hampshire (9-2)
Richmond (9-3)
Villanova (9-2)

Great West
Cal Poly (8-2)

MEAC
*South Carolina State (10-2)

Missouri Valley
Northern Iowa (9-3)
*Southern Illinois (9-2) – #4 Seed

Ohio Valley
*Tennessee State (10-2)

Patriot
*Lafayette (10-1)

Southern
*Appalachian State (10-2) – #2 Seed
Elon (9-3)
Wofford (9-2)

Southland
*Texas State (9-3)

*Denotes predicted automatic bid recipient.


FIRST ROUND PAIRINGS:

Elon (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

Tennessee State (10-2) at #4 Southern Illinois (9-2)
Northern Iowa (9-3) at Texas State (9-3)

Cal Poly (8-2) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
New Hampshire (9-2) at Montana (11-1)

Richmond (9-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (9-2) at South Carolina State (10-2)

[WrenFGun]

There has been a lot of playoff talk on the board today, but no prediction of the field. Here is what I got.

The Auto-Bids:

Big Sky- Weber State
Colonial- James Madison
MEAC- South Carolina State
Missouri Valley- Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley- Tennessee-Martin
Patriot League- Holy Cross
Southern Conference- Appalachian State
Southland- Texas State

At Large (in no order):

Montana
Northern Arizona
New Hampshire
Villanova
Cal Poly
Northern Iowa
Wofford
Elon

Last 2 out: William and Mary and Richmond
Last 2 in: Cal Poly and Northern Arizona

Others considered: Liberty, Furman, UMASS, Western Illinois, and Dayton (no, not really Dayton, but thought I would give Detroit Flyer something to smile about xlolx )

Yes, I think Western Illinois or Richmond would be a better pick than NAU right now. Based on current resume, I think you'd have to say WIU has a good shot. Also, I realize Holy Cross has a shot, but wouldn't you say LaFayette or Colgate are the odds-on favorites right now? xeyebrowx

[crusader11]

Also, I realize Holy Cross has a shot, but wouldn't you say LaFayette or Colgate are the odds-on favorites right now? xeyebrowx

All three teams are 2-0 in the league. Each team has just a good a shot as the other.

[WrenFGun]

I stand corrected! I tend to think HC had the best team entering the season, so let's see if they can pull it out.

[siuham]

NAU/Richmond/WIU will probably be equal come end of the season. Will be interesting to see what the committee does.

[SuperJon]

The words Liberty and playoffs shouldn't even be mentioned together until we beat Elon. If that doesn't happen, then they shouldn't be mentioned together again until talking about next year.

[WrenFGun]

My thoughts:

Autobids:
BSC: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina State
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
SLC: Texas State

At-Large:
Wofford
Villanova
New Hampshire
Richmond
Cal Poly
Elon
Northern Iowa
Montana

Last 4 out: Western Illinois, UMass, Furman, William & Mary
Last 2 in: Richmond, Elon

Western Illinois is knocking at the doorstep and will be in with either a win over Southern Illinois or Northern Iowa. I project that UMass will lose to UNH, Furman will lose to Wofford and William & Mary will lose to both Richmond and James Madison. If William & Mary wins either, they'll be in/tough to keep out; the same for UMass knocking off UNH and Furman knocking off Wofford. If all/most of those scenarios happen, they'll be more than one 8-3 major conference team sitting at home.

My seeds: (1) James Madison, (2) Appalachian State, (3) Weber State, (4) Wofford

[LCFan21]

All three teams are 2-0 in the league. Each team has just a good a shot as the other.

Right now Lafayette is playing solid ball on offense - defense and special teams - Colgate a very close second but most of their fans question how good the defense is - HC a close third - again defense has question marks but Randolph can make up for it. Lehigh is a long shot at best. This will be a very telling week for sure.

[URMite]

NAU/Richmond/WIU will probably be equal come end of the season. Will be interesting to see what the committee does.

I'm not so sure about that don't both NAU & WIU have an 11 game schedule with a DII team? We have a 12 game schedule with all DI (even if VMI & GTown are two of them :D ).

So... if all 3 have 3 losses then 7-3/9-3/7-3.

[BDKJMU]

NAU/Richmond/WIU will probably be equal come end of the season. Will be interesting to see what the committee does.

Only if you don't have the ability to count to 12.

-NAU 11 games, 10 Div I. They will have to win out, including @ Montana and @ EWu to get in. They won't get in at 8-3 with only 7 Div I wins. This is where only 11 games can kill you if one of them is a Div II.

-WIU 11 games, 10 Div I. They will have to win out, including UNI and @ SIU to get in. They won't get in at 8-3 with only 7 Div I wins. They more likely finish 7-4 so its a moot point anyway. Same thing, this is where only 11 games can kill you if one is a Div II.

-UR 12 games, 12 Div 1. They win their last 3, which I think they will, they're in at 9-3. Only potential loss would be last game @ W&M. Lose that, and I don't think they get in.

Any AD of a team that has playoff potential that schedules only 11 games with one of them a Div 2 is an idiot. Everyone should schedule 11 or 12 Div I games.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/standings?groupId=81

[BDKJMU]

My thoughts:

Autobids:
BSC: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina State
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
SLC: Texas State

At-Large:
Wofford
Villanova
New Hampshire
Richmond
Cal Poly
Elon
Northern Iowa
Montana

Last 4 out: Western Illinois, UMass, Furman, William & Mary
Last 2 in: Richmond, Elon

Western Illinois is knocking at the doorstep and will be in with either a win over Southern Illinois or Northern Iowa. I project that UMass will lose to UNH, Furman will lose to Wofford and William & Mary will lose to both Richmond and James Madison. If William & Mary wins either, they'll be in/tough to keep out; the same for UMass knocking off UNH and Furman knocking off Wofford. If all/most of those scenarios happen, they'll be more than one 8-3 major conference team sitting at home.

My seeds: (1) James Madison, (2) Appalachian State, (3) Weber State, (4) Wofford

Wrong on that. WIU drops to either UNI or SIU that will leave them 8-3 with only 7 Div I wins. Playing Div II Quincy might come back to bite them in the arse.

I'm willing to make a straight up bet with anyone. If no team gets an at large with 7 Div I wins I win. If a team gets an at large with only 7 Div I wins I lose.

[BDKJMU]

I'm not so sure about that don't both NAU & WIU have an 11 game schedule with a DII team? We have a 12 game schedule with all DI (even if VMI & GTown are two of them :D ).

So... if all 3 have 3 losses then 7-3/9-3/7-3.

You are correct UR Mite. Sorry I posted my replies before reading yours. Not a snowball's chance in hell a 8-3 NAU or WIU with only 7 Div I wins gets in over a 9-3 UR with 9 Div I wins.

[URMite]

Only if you don't have the ability to count to 12.

-NAU 11 games, 10 Div I. They will have to win out, including @ Montana and @ EWu to get in. They won't get in at 8-3 with only 7 Div I wins. This is where only 11 games can kill you if one of them is a Div II.

-WIU 11 games, 10 Div I. They will have to win out, including UNI and @ SIU to get in. They won't get in at 8-3 with only 7 Div I wins. They more likely finish 7-4 so its a moot point anyway. Same thing, this is where only 11 games can kill you if one is a Div II.

-UR 12 games, 12 Div 1. They win their last 3, which I think they will, they're in at 9-3. Only potential loss would be last game @ W&M. Lose that, and I don't think they get in.

Any AD of a team that has playoff potential that schedules only 11 games with one of them a Div 2 is an idiot. Everyone should schedule 11 or 12 Div I games.

Hey this info looks familiar.xthumbsupx

How about teams that schedule 2 Div 2? some with 2 FBS as well.

I don't think we get in at 8-4 (I don't even think ASU does) Actually I'm not sure that anyone is a lock at X-3 even JMU & ASU.

[URMite]

Wrong on that. WIU drops to either UNI or SIU that will leave them 8-3 with only 7 Div I wins. Playing Div II Quincy might come back to bite them in the arse.

I'm willing to make a straight up bet with anyone. If no team gets an at large with 7 Div I wins I win. If a team gets an at large with only 7 Div I wins I lose.

Umm...Isn't South Dakota a non-counter...so an 8-2 Cal Poly will really be 7-2? Otherwise I agree with you.

[Tribe4SF]

Umm...Isn't South Dakota a non-counter...so an 8-2 Cal Poly will really be 7-2? Otherwise I agree with you.

Transitional teams count. Bryant counts for UMass, as well.

[Bison_Kent]

Transitional teams do not count in their first year of play. Games against South Dakota, North Dakota, and Bryant this year count as DII opponents.

Next year, these three teams will count towards the DI opponent category.

[UNHWildCats]

Transitional teams do not count in their first year of play. Games against South Dakota, North Dakota, and Bryant this year count as DII opponents.

Next year, these three teams will count towards the DI opponent category.
xthumbsupx

[URMite]

Transitional teams do not count in their first year of play. Games against South Dakota, North Dakota, and Bryant this year count as DII opponents.

Next year, these three teams will count towards the DI opponent category.

It appears that NCAA.org is not counting South Dakota, North Dakota but are counting Bryant, along with Winston-Salem, Presbyterian, NC Central, & Central Arkansas. Not definitive but interesting.

[SuperJon]

It's because those schools are in their second year.

[BDKJMU]

I thought NCCU was in their 1st year as a I-AA. They count as Div I on JMU's schedule.

[URMite]

It's because those schools are in their second year.

Including Bryant? the one that keeps getting debated?

[SuperJon]

Don't know. I just know about PC, WSSU, and NCCU.

[LehighFan11]

Wrong on that. WIU drops to either UNI or SIU that will leave them 8-3 with only 7 Div I wins. Playing Div II Quincy might come back to bite them in the arse.

I'm willing to make a straight up bet with anyone. If no team gets an at large with 7 Div I wins I win. If a team gets an at large with only 7 Div I wins I lose.

Does Cal Poly count?

[FargoBison]

Including Bryant? the one that keeps getting debated?

Bryant played in DII last year so I'm pretty sure they don't count.

[BDKJMU]

Does Cal Poly count?

No- I should have said except for Cal Poly, as their schedule with only 10 games after their @ McNeese game was cancelled is a complete anolamy. Only 10 games, with 2 I-As, with a conference member that is in their 1st year of transition to I-AA and therefore is a non counter, is a complete anolamy.

2 I-As more than makes up for a Div II IMHO. The only other teams I have seen with 2 I-As on their schedule are the Citadel and Northeastern, but both of them have 12 game schedules and aren't in the playoff discussion.

[stevdock]

Eastern Washington also had 2 I-A's on their schedule this year.

Unless you count WIU's win over us, they don't have a single quality win on their schedule yet. Now granted their whole season gets decided in the next two weeks. I think they have to win one to get in, cause I don't know if beating NDSU is gonna be a good enough reason to get into the playoffs.

[leatherneck177]

Eastern Washington also had 2 I-A's on their schedule this year.

Unless you count WIU's win over us, they don't have a single quality win on their schedule yet. Now granted their whole season gets decided in the next two weeks. I think they have to win one to get in, cause I don't know if beating NDSU is gonna be a good enough reason to get into the playoffs.

Let's put it this way, MVFC is a two bid league. WIU beats SIU but loses to UNI, who gets in? Let's assume WIU finishes 8-3.

[Chi Panther]

Let's put it this way, MVFC is a two bid league. WIU beats SIU but loses to UNI, who gets in? Let's assume WIU finishes 8-3.

Good quesion, we'll have more info in a few weeks.xconfusedx

[WrenFGun]

Why is the MVFC a 2 bid league? They have a shot at three, IMO.

[leatherneck177]

Good quesion, we'll have more info in a few weeks.xconfusedx

True, the only thing IMO that is certain for the MVFC is that two teams will come out.

[leatherneck177]

Why is the MVFC a 2 bid league? They have a shot at three, IMO.

I agree with this as well, it just so happens that most teams in the MVFC have played 11 games. Correct me if I'm wrong, SIU & UNI fans. That would put (perhaps) two 8-3 MVFC teams against possible 9-3 teams from other power conferences.

[BDKJMU]

Eastern Washington also had 2 I-A's on their schedule this year.

Unless you count WIU's win over us, they don't have a single quality win on their schedule yet. Now granted their whole season gets decided in the next two weeks. I think they have to win one to get in, cause I don't know if beating NDSU is gonna be a good enough reason to get into the playoffs.

Darn it, I totally forgot about them. So from the AQ conferences thats EWU, Citadel, and Northeastern with 2 I-As and maybe someone else that we're forgetting about? As far as the playoff contenders, I don't believe there is any.

[GolfingGriz]

Darn it, I totally forgot about them. So from the AQ conferences thats EWU, Citadel, and Northeastern with 2 I-As and maybe someone else that we're forgetting about? As far as the playoff contenders, I don't believe there is any.

I dont consider MSU a playoff contender, but they did.

[Khan4Cats]

I agree with this as well, it just so happens that most teams in the MVFC have played 11 games. Correct me if I'm wrong, SIU & UNI fans. That would put (perhaps) two 8-3 MVFC teams against possible 9-3 teams from other power conferences.

Don't discount SDSU yet. They still have to play SIU and NDSU.

We could see a trainwreck at the top if WIU beats UNI, SIU beats WIU and SDSU beats SIU, and they all win the rest of their games. 4-way tie for 1st with two losses. In that scenario, I think UNI gets in at 9-3, and one of the other three, but only if UNI doesn't get the auto-bid, since I think that would leave SDSU at 8-4 and WIU and SIU at 7-4.

While 7 wins is the threshold, I really think this year that teams will have to be at 8 D-I wins for an at-large, with the exception of Cal-Poly.

[Houndawg]

Don't discount SDSU yet. They still have to play SIU and NDSU.

We could see a trainwreck at the top if WIU beats UNI, SIU beats WIU and SDSU beats SIU, and they all win the rest of their games. 4-way tie for 1st with two losses. In that scenario, I think UNI gets in at 9-3, and one of the other three, but only if UNI doesn't get the auto-bid, since I think that would leave SDSU at 8-4 and WIU and SIU at 7-4.

While 7 wins is the threshold, I really think this year that teams will have to be at 8 D-I wins for an at-large, with the exception of Cal-Poly.

If SIU gets beaten by SDSU and wins the rest, they'll be 8-3 with 8 D1 wins.

[Saluki09]

If SIU gets beaten by SDSU and wins the rest, they'll be 8-3 with 8 D1 wins.

In that scenario we would have 7 D1 wins...North Dakota wouldn't count.

[AZGrizFan]

Darn it, I totally forgot about them. So from the AQ conferences thats EWU, Citadel, and Northeastern with 2 I-As and maybe someone else that we're forgetting about? As far as the playoff contenders, I don't believe there is any.

Weber had Hawaii and Utah

[IaaScribe]

I'm making a projection on how I think the standings will look at the end of the season, not on how they stand now. Here it goes:

Tennessee-Martin (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Western Illinois (8-3) at Cal Poly (8-2)

South Carolina State (10-2) at #4 Wofford (9-2)
Villanova (10-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

Texas State (8-4) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
Richmond (9-3) at Southern Illinois (9-2)

Liberty (11-1) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
New Hampshire (8-3) at Montana (11-1)

Some explanations:

* That Liberty spot goes to Elon if the Phoenix win in Lynchburg. I have Elon losing that game and finishing at 8-4, and out of the dance. I just think they'll have a hell of a time bouncing back after playing App, that's all.

* I've got Western Illinois in over Northern Iowa based on a projection of Western beating UNI. If UNI wins, that projection flips to the Panthers. At 9-3, Northern Iowa's most impressive win would be against South Dakota State.

* For some sneaky reason, I think Furman slips at Samford next week, and I project the Paladins to finish 7-5 with an additional loss to Wofford. Even if Furman doesn't slip, 8-4 with the best win coming against Colgate probably won't be enough to leapfrog an 11-1 conference champion in Liberty, even if that conference is admittedly much weaker than the SoCon.

* I'm projecting Northern Arizona to lose to Montana and Eastern, and that will leave the Jacks at 8-4 with little argument.

* I think New Hampshire will have the best resume of a jumble of teams in the CAA North. I project UMass at 8-4 with a loss to UNH, and Maine at 8-4 with a win over UNH but a loss to UMass. In that case, the win at Army will stand out for UNH. Nothing on Maine's schedule gives it much at-large pop.

* I've got William & Mary at 7-4 and just outside, because I'm picking Richmond to beat W&M. If the Tribe wins that game, that puts W&M at 8-3 and Richmond at 8-4, and W&M probably gets the nod.

* I think Tennessee State loses to Jacksonville State and finishes 9-3 with no real quality non-conference victory. Out.

[Bulldog87]

If Wofford gets in unseeded would you have SCSU as the home team in this matchup? I ask only due to stadium size. Gibbs stadium is nice but Dawson is just as nice,has far more tailgating spots and seats twice as much as Gibbs. We've filled Gibbs before. If we play the Terriers at Dawson and Wofford fans showup we can sell 22,000 tickets for a playoff game. (If the weather is good).

[WrenFGun]

I'm making a projection on how I think the standings will look at the end of the season, not on how they stand now. Here it goes:

Tennessee-Martin (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Western Illinois (8-3) at Cal Poly (8-2)

South Carolina State (10-2) at #4 Wofford (9-2)
Villanova (10-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

Texas State (8-4) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
Richmond (9-3) at Southern Illinois (9-2)

Liberty (11-1) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
New Hampshire (8-3) at Montana (11-1)

* That Liberty spot goes to Elon if the Phoenix win in Lynchburg. I have Elon losing that game and finishing at 8-4, and out of the dance. I just think they'll have a hell of a time bouncing back after playing App, that's all.

* I've got Western Illinois in over Northern Iowa based on a projection of Western beating UNI. If UNI wins, that projection flips to the Panthers. At 9-3, Northern Iowa's most impressive win would be against South Dakota State.

* For some sneaky reason, I think Furman slips at Samford next week, and I project the Paladins to finish 7-5 with an additional loss to Wofford. Even if Furman doesn't slip, 8-4 with the best win coming against Colgate probably won't be enough to leapfrog an 11-1 conference champion in Liberty, even if that conference is admittedly much weaker than the SoCon.

* I'm projecting Northern Arizona to lose to Montana and Eastern, and that will leave the Jacks at 8-4 with little argument.

* I think New Hampshire will have the best resume of a jumble of teams in the CAA North. I project UMass at 8-4 with a loss to UNH, and Maine at 8-4 with a win over UNH but a loss to UMass. In that case, the win at Army will stand out for UNH. Nothing on Maine's schedule gives it much at-large pop.

* I've got William & Mary at 7-4 and just outside, because I'm picking Richmond to beat W&M. If the Tribe wins that game, that puts W&M at 8-3 and Richmond at 8-4, and W&M probably gets the nod.

* I think Tennessee State loses to Jacksonville State and finishes 9-3 with no real quality non-conference victory. Out.

Sound projections, and a quality example of UNH being able to make the tournament at 8-3. Can't disagree with anything you said.
Some explanations:

[IaaScribe]

If Wofford gets in unseeded would you have SCSU as the home team in this matchup? I ask only due to stadium size. Gibbs stadium is nice but Dawson is just as nice,has far more tailgating spots and seats twice as much as Gibbs. We've filled Gibbs before. If we play the Terriers at Dawson and Wofford fans showup we can sell 22,000 tickets for a playoff game. (If the weather is good).

Bid size does mean something, for sure. I could see that happening.

[bigskyrocks]

i wouldnt be suprized if a 11-1 montana team slips in at #4. not based on there resume (although not a bad one) but on its stadium size. and since everone else is throwing out a prediction i thought i might as well do it too but since i havnt paid alot of attention to eastern teams ill just predict a top 6.

1 JMU
2 App st
3 Montana (only becuase the ncaa would want montana home for as many games as possible (not likly but its my opinion right)
4 Weber st (could flip montana and weber i think they are pretty even)
5 cal poly (if beats wisconsin but if not put wofford here)
6 wofford

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

i wouldnt be suprized if a 11-1 montana team slips in at #4. not based on there resume (although not a bad one) but on its stadium size. and since everone else is throwing out a prediction i thought i might as well do it too but since i havnt paid alot of attention to eastern teams ill just predict a top 6.

1 JMU
2 App st
3 Montana (only becuase the ncaa would want montana home for as many games as possible (not likly but its my opinion right)
4 Weber st (could flip montana and weber i think they are pretty even)
5 cal poly (if beats wisconsin but if not put wofford here)
6 wofford

Uhhh, If Cal Poly beats Wisconsin, I'm pretty sure they will be one of the top 4 seeds...

[KiddBrewer]

If Wofford gets in unseeded would you have SCSU as the home team in this matchup? I ask only due to stadium size. Gibbs stadium is nice but Dawson is just as nice,has far more tailgating spots and seats twice as much as Gibbs. We've filled Gibbs before. If we play the Terriers at Dawson and Wofford fans showup we can sell 22,000 tickets for a playoff game. (If the weather is good).

idk about 22,000...........anywhere

[malibudude]

Uhhh, If Cal Poly beats Wisconsin, I'm pretty sure they will be one of the top 4 seeds...

Thanks. You beat me to it.

[GolfingGriz]

I'm making a projection on how I think the standings will look at the end of the season, not on how they stand now. Here it goes:

Tennessee-Martin (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Western Illinois (8-3) at Cal Poly (8-2)

South Carolina State (10-2) at #4 Wofford (9-2)
Villanova (10-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

Texas State (8-4) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
Richmond (9-3) at Southern Illinois (9-2)

Liberty (11-1) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
New Hampshire (8-3) at Montana (11-1)

Some explanations:

* That Liberty spot goes to Elon if the Phoenix win in Lynchburg. I have Elon losing that game and finishing at 8-4, and out of the dance. I just think they'll have a hell of a time bouncing back after playing App, that's all.

* I've got Western Illinois in over Northern Iowa based on a projection of Western beating UNI. If UNI wins, that projection flips to the Panthers. At 9-3, Northern Iowa's most impressive win would be against South Dakota State.

* For some sneaky reason, I think Furman slips at Samford next week, and I project the Paladins to finish 7-5 with an additional loss to Wofford. Even if Furman doesn't slip, 8-4 with the best win coming against Colgate probably won't be enough to leapfrog an 11-1 conference champion in Liberty, even if that conference is admittedly much weaker than the SoCon.

* I'm projecting Northern Arizona to lose to Montana and Eastern, and that will leave the Jacks at 8-4 with little argument.

* I think New Hampshire will have the best resume of a jumble of teams in the CAA North. I project UMass at 8-4 with a loss to UNH, and Maine at 8-4 with a win over UNH but a loss to UMass. In that case, the win at Army will stand out for UNH. Nothing on Maine's schedule gives it much at-large pop.

* I've got William & Mary at 7-4 and just outside, because I'm picking Richmond to beat W&M. If the Tribe wins that game, that puts W&M at 8-3 and Richmond at 8-4, and W&M probably gets the nod.

* I think Tennessee State loses to Jacksonville State and finishes 9-3 with no real quality non-conference victory. Out.

I think an 11-1 Montana team earns a seed over a 9-2 Wofford team.

[coover]

Any AD of a team that has playoff potential that schedules only 11 games with one of them a Div 2 is an idiot. Everyone should schedule 11 or 12 Div I games.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/standings?groupId=81

Idiot? Suppose an AD attempts to contact virtually every FCS team to get a 12th game (in fact, to get an 11th game), and each and every one of them either ignors that AD (by not taking the call) or says "no, we won't play you. You're too tough"). That is why that team is playing Wisconsin this year in November.

[dbackjon]

Any AD of a team that has playoff potential that schedules only 11 games with one of them a Div 2 is an idiot. Everyone should schedule 11 or 12 Div I games.



Tell you what - have your AD call ours and schedule a home and home...

[apaladin]

Tell you what - have your AD call ours and schedule a home and home...

After this year FCS teams cannot schedule 12 games, correct?

[URMite]

So is it better to have 9 Div I wins or 8 Div I wins but an extra win against 7-4 or better competition?

[BDKJMU]

After this year FCS teams cannot schedule 12 games, correct?

All the more reason to not schedule a Div II.

[BDKJMU]

Tell you what - have your AD call ours and schedule a home and home...

That would be cool.xthumbsupx I'd try to get if not a week 4-5 days to fly out there to see the Grand canyon. Been to Many National Parks out West, but never been to the Grand Canyon, and would love to go there.

Problem is in this economy with the increased travel costs with almost all teams at the I-AA level losing $, I doubt JMU will schedule any future home and home where they have to fly. Only way I see JMU flying in the future would be for a big pay day against a BCS, and even thats unlikely, as given the last 5 years to the next several years, the I-A opponents are all about 4 hrs or less from JMU: VA Tech, WVU, UNC, Duke, MD.

[Stang Fever]

Tell you what - have your AD call ours and schedule a home and home...

I can tell you with high confidence that we called EVERY West Coast Team... Non of which wanted to play.. So RE-CALLING your AD doesnt work

I remember when coach E (Cal Poly's Head Coach) told me. When we werent very good, everyone wanted to play us. Now that we got a little success and are known around the nation. THos phone calls now go unanswered.

If this year was any proof of that. I dont know what would be. You cant believe Cal Poly didnt want 12 games this year. But when you cant get anyone with some B@ll$ to play us then thats what you get. I imagine everyone will like to play us NEXT year. When they think we will not be as good

[dbackjon]

That would be cool.xthumbsupx I'd try to get if not a week 4-5 days to fly out there to see the Grand canyon. Been to Many National Parks out West, but never been to the Grand Canyon, and would love to go there.

Problem is in this economy with the increased travel costs with almost all teams at the I-AA level losing $, I doubt JMU will schedule any future home and home where they have to fly. Only way I see JMU flying in the future would be for a big pay day against a BCS, and even thats unlikely, as given the last 5 years to the next several years, the I-A opponents are all about 4 hrs or less from JMU: VA Tech, WVU, UNC, Duke, MD.

Like Cal poly, none of the east coast teams want to do a home and home with a western team. We are stuck playing D2s, if we want home games.

[R.A.]

idk about 22,000...........anywhere

SCSU, for a Saturday afternoon playoff game... they might have more than 22,000 there... let the Times & Democrat Hype machine build it up xlolx

They had over 17,000 for the Hampton game, more people were at that game, than at SC State's homecoming game.

If Wofford makes the playoffs without a seed, and SCSU wins the MEAC... the Terriers will be in Orangeburg.

Check out these Hampton @ SCSU
pictures.http://picasaweb.google.com/Marquis.Hodges/SCSUVsHampton2008#

[Edge316007]

Uhhh, If Cal Poly beats Wisconsin, I'm pretty sure they will be one of the top 4 seeds...

Hard to say.

I'd consider JMU a lock unless they absolutely tank the last 3 games. The App/Wofford winner is also probably a lock (especially if it's App). Sure either could stumble in their final games but they both have the tough game at home. Even so, I can see the winner get a seed even at 9-3.

After that it gets tricky. If Montana can run the table to get to 11-1, they *should* get a seed too. Money talks.

However, how do you seed them over Weber State who has the head to head and only losses to FBS teams? What about Villanova who could finish 9-2 with only losses to a FBS team and the #1 FCS team?

Cal Poly has the head to head loss to Montana and a weak schedule. And I know everyone says it won't, but I'm willing to bet the canceled game against McNeese hurts them a bit.

I know this is assuming a lot of teams finish strong and no upsets occur, but I wouldn't consider them (Cal Poly) to be a pretty sure bet.

My seeds, assuming no upsets occur:

1. James Madison
2. Appalachian/Wofford winner
3. Weber State
4. Montana

Montana just inches over Villanova. Unfortunately, as I said, money talks. Montana is a guaranteed money maker.

EDIT: Also forgot to mention other teams on the radar such as UNH.

[smallcollegefbfan]

SCSU, for a Saturday afternoon playoff game... they might have more than 22,000 there... let the Times & Democrat Hype machine build it up xlolx

They had over 17,000 for the Hampton game, more people were at that game, than at SC State's homecoming game.

If Wofford makes the playoffs without a seed, and SCSU wins the MEAC... the Terriers will be in Orangeburg.

Check out these Hampton @ SCSU
pictures.http://picasaweb.google.com/Marquis.Hodges/SCSUVsHampton2008#

Home games are given to non seeded teams based on how much money they bid for the games. With that said, Wofford has the millions of Jerry Richardson at their disposal and if he wants home playoff games they will be able to bid as high as they want.

[Stang Fever]

Hard to say.

I'd consider JMU a lock unless they absolutely tank the last 3 games. The App/Wofford winner is also probably a lock (especially if it's App). Sure either could stumble in their final games but they both have the tough game at home. Even so, I can see the winner get a seed even at 9-3.

After that it gets tricky. If Montana can run the table to get to 11-1, they *should* get a seed too. Money talks.

However, how do you seed them over Weber State who has the head to head and only losses to FBS teams? What about Villanova who could finish 9-2 with only losses to a FBS team and the #1 FCS team?

Cal Poly has the head to head loss to Montana and a weak schedule. And I know everyone says it won't, but I'm willing to bet the canceled game against McNeese hurts them a bit.

I know this is assuming a lot of teams finish strong and no upsets occur, but I wouldn't consider them (Cal Poly) to be a pretty sure bet.

My seeds, assuming no upsets occur:

1. James Madison
2. Appalachian/Wofford winner
3. Weber State
4. Montana

Montana just inches over Villanova. Unfortunately, as I said, money talks. Montana is a guaranteed money maker.

EDIT: Also forgot to mention other teams on the radar such as UNH.

I would not call our schedule weak... I know loosing the game with Mcneese Hurts the strength a little. But by no means can one argue that our schedule is WEAK??? We are in the weaker part of our schedule right now Unitl we play UC DAVIS and Wisc.

[Edge316007]

I don't know, I'm just not impressed by wins over teams that are hovering around .500.

Montana (7-1) L
NW State (5-3) W
South Dakota (3-4) W
SD State (4-4) W
Southern Utah (3-5) W

Still to come:

Idaho State (0-8)
NC Central (1-6)
UC Davis (5-4)

Yeah, they have a win over FBS San Diego State but they're not very good at all. I just don't know that a win over a mediocre Wisconsin team would put them into seed territory with the rest of their schedule being nothing special including that head to head loss to Montana. If they had beaten Montana, surely they would be getting a seed.

[malibudude]

I don't know, I'm just not impressed by wins over teams that are hovering around .500.

Montana (7-1) L
NW State (5-3) W
South Dakota (3-4) W
SD State (4-4) W
Southern Utah (3-5) W

Still to come:

Idaho State (0-8)
NC Central (1-6)
UC Davis (5-4)

Yeah, they have a win over FBS San Diego State but they're not very good at all. I just don't know that a win over a mediocre Wisconsin team would put them into seed territory with the rest of their schedule being nothing special including that head to head loss to Montana. If they had beaten Montana, surely they would be getting a seed.

You are not serious, correct? please, are you that infatuauted with right coast FCS football?

[Edge316007]

Instead of calling "East coast bias" and running why don't you go ahead and tell me what's so special about their schedule and beating up on teams they should beat?

Their only FCS quality win is against NW State. I don't even consider SDSU quality, despite being FBS, as they are terrible.

I also think it's funny that you're calling ECB on me when I have both Montana AND Weber State as seeds. You won't find too many people who think they both deserve seeding on this board.

[uofmman1122]

Instead of calling "East coast bias" and running why don't you go ahead and tell me what's so special about their schedule and beating up on teams they should beat?

Their only FCS quality win is against NW State. I don't even consider SDSU quality, despite being FBS, as they are terrible.

I also think it's funny that you're calling ECB on me when I have both Montana AND Weber State as seeds. You won't find too many people who think they both deserve seeding on this board.I think the margin of victory over each team is pretty telling. Cal Poly has crushed a lot of teams this year. Not just beaten teams they were supposed to beat, but crushed them.

I'm sure if they could, Cal Poly would have scheduled any top 10 team that would play them, but being in California, it's tough to find teams willing to do home and homes.

I think you're reading a little too much into records, and not into on the field results.

[malibudude]

Instead of calling "East coast bias" and running why don't you go ahead and tell me what's so special about their schedule and beating up on teams they should beat?

Their only FCS quality win is against NW State. I don't even consider SDSU quality, despite being FBS, as they are terrible.
the Southland
I also think it's funny that you're calling ECB on me when I have both Montana AND Weber State as seeds. You won't find too many people who think they both deserve seeding on this board.


San Diego State was quality at the time, as they had a year to deal with this revenge game, CP did beat them in 2006, SDSU was beaten up in the CP game, lost 3 out of 4 DL. They played ND well and should have won, what was left of their defense, ND took out. They have since lost their very good QB and have been crap since. Agreed. The schedule is what it is, CP plays in a small conference, we have two new members, non-counters, obliged to play one this year, USD, they are not bad. Lost a game to MSU via weather. South Dakota State is a quality MVFC team, particulary at home. NWST is tops of the Southland at the moment. Quite frankly if you are an OOC FCS team trying to make the playoffs why would you schedule CP, if you do not have to? Hey, we have a lot of football left, Davis is a rivalry game and they always play it tough with Poly. After that comes Wisky, at the beginning of the year I would say 1 in a hundred shot, now based on what both teams have done, it is less.

Right now, Poly is a very dominating team, their offense is off the chart,
barring injuries, I think they are the match of any team in the FCS. I wish we had a few more games scheduled to substantiate this assertion. Just my thoughts.

[Khan4Cats]

Quick question. How is it that Cal-Poly does not play a road game in conference this year? I understand the idea of not making them play both non-counters, but couldn't they still have played a road game?

Good luck to the 'Stangs the rest of the way. They are a good team in a very tenous position. I hope they can win out, including Wisconsin. Otherwise, they will finish with only 7 D-I wins, while there will be many teams that finish with 8 (there are currently 32 teams from auto-bid conferences that could finish with 8). I hope the committee will take into consideration the cancellation, but as a UNI fan, I can't have too much faith in the committee doing any favors.

[Houndawg]

Instead of calling "East coast bias" and running why don't you go ahead and tell me what's so special about their schedule and beating up on teams they should beat?

Their only FCS quality win is against NW State. I don't even consider SDSU quality, despite being FBS, as they are terrible.

I also think it's funny that you're calling ECB on me when I have both Montana AND Weber State as seeds. You won't find too many people who think they both deserve seeding on this board.

South Dakota State is a good road win.

[WrenFGun]

I don't know, I'm just not impressed by wins over teams that are hovering around .500.

Montana (7-1) L
NW State (5-3) W
South Dakota (3-4) W
SD State (4-4) W
Southern Utah (3-5) W

Still to come:

Idaho State (0-8)
NC Central (1-6)
UC Davis (5-4)

Yeah, they have a win over FBS San Diego State but they're not very good at all. I just don't know that a win over a mediocre Wisconsin team would put them into seed territory with the rest of their schedule being nothing special including that head to head loss to Montana. If they had beaten Montana, surely they would be getting a seed.

I have been trying to say this for quite awhile in regard to East Coast Bias. I'm so tired of hearing it...instead of saying it's East Coast Bias, why don't you address the claim with statistics to dispute it (and I think I probably know why you don't, since the statistics don't exist).

[FCS Go!]

I have been trying to say this for quite awhile in regard to East Coast Bias. I'm so tired of hearing it...instead of saying it's East Coast Bias, why don't you address the claim with statistics to dispute it (and I think I probably know why you don't, since the statistics don't exist).

As has been tirelessly brought up before, the standard seems to be playing East Coast teams. When Western team fans say "our team is good/underrated" East coast fans seem to always say "who have you played". The only legit or acceptable way to address that question seems to be the ability to point to a game against an East Coast team. Common opponents are, well, common when comparing EC vs. EC teams & a rarity when comparing EC vs. WC teams.

If all you East Coast schools would man-up and resign yourself to losing $500k on a road trip to MT, WA, UT or CA you would have your stats to back up your claim that your-East-Coast team is better than my-Western-team. :D

[Stang Fever]

I don't know, I'm just not impressed by wins over teams that are hovering around .500.

Montana (7-1) L
NW State (5-3) W
South Dakota (3-4) W
SD State (4-4) W
Southern Utah (3-5) W

Still to come:

Idaho State (0-8)
NC Central (1-6)
UC Davis (5-4)

Yeah, they have a win over FBS San Diego State but they're not very good at all. I just don't know that a win over a mediocre Wisconsin team would put them into seed territory with the rest of their schedule being nothing special including that head to head loss to Montana. If they had beaten Montana, surely they would be getting a seed.

I for one believe a win is a win. and a loss is a loss. So even though we lost to Montana by 2 points cause of a missed chip shot. Its still a loss.

But at the time we beat North Western St. They were either ranked really low. are just outside the top 25.

SDSU #2- Was ranked in the top 25. Bet them hands down

SUU - Even though there record says they suck. Everyone who has played them Knows other wise

[uofmman1122]

As has been tirelessly brought up before, the standard seems to be playing East Coast teams. When Western team fans say "our team is good/underrated" East coast fans seem to always say "who have you played". The only legit or acceptable way to address that question seems to be the ability to point to a game against an East Coast team. Common opponents are, well, common when comparing EC vs. EC teams & a rarity when comparing EC vs. WC teams.

If all you East Coast schools would man-up and resign yourself to losing $500k dollars on a road trip to MT, WA, UT or CA you would have your stats to back up your claim that your-East-Coast team is better than my-Western-team. :DBut it's just so much easier to just say you're better without doing anything. xrolleyesxxlolx

[Stang Fever]

I think the margin of victory over each team is pretty telling. Cal Poly has crushed a lot of teams this year. Not just beaten teams they were supposed to beat, but crushed them.

I'm sure if they could, Cal Poly would have scheduled any top 10 team that would play them, but being in California, it's tough to find teams willing to do home and homes.

I think you're reading a little too much into records, and not into on the field results.

THANK YOU!!! FINALLY SOMEONE who understands. That Cal Poly's Calls for quality games go unanswered.

"West Coast" Teams
i.E - Montana State literally REFUSING to play us
Sac St -Wont even pick up the phone to consider it.
USD - of course they run!! They love beating up on Nobody's and rant about how good they are
NAU - Wouldnt even consider it. Maybe next year


Come to think about it. We asked just about everyone to play us and guess what. Only a few selected teams had the B@LL$ to play us. So call us weak or whatever. Its not our fault. When we sucked it was easy to get teams here.

i.e Young Town Stat, Northern Iowa, Portland St. The list goes on and on.

[uofmman1122]

THANK YOU!!! FINALLY SOMEONE who understands. That Cal Poly's Calls for quality games go unanswered.

"West Coast" Teams
i.E - Montana State literally REFUSING to play us
Sac St -Wont even pick up the phone to consider it.
USD - of course they run!! They love beating up on Nobody's and rant about how good they are
NAU - Wouldnt even consider it. Maybe next year


Come to think about it. We asked just about everyone to play us and guess what. Only a few selected teams had the B@LL$ to play us. So call us weak or whatever. Its not our fault. When we sucked it was easy to get teams here.

i.e Young Town Stat, Northern Iowa, Portland St. The list goes on and on.Well, at least you can look forward to four more years of Cal Poly vs. Montana. xthumbsupx

[Stang Fever]

Well, at least you can look forward to four more years of Cal Poly vs. Montana. xthumbsupx

Yeah right!! only if Poly continues to go out there. It took how many games to get a return trip??? Poly can Play montana every year because
1) the Montana fans actually appreciate a good game when we come up there
2) Montana knows they have us by the B@LL$ cause we need games and will always allow them to cancel there home game with us. so we can go to them

[jlcharles]

THANK YOU!!! FINALLY SOMEONE who understands. That Cal Poly's Calls for quality games go unanswered.

"West Coast" Teams
i.E - Montana State literally REFUSING to play us
Sac St -Wont even pick up the phone to consider it.
USD - of course they run!! They love beating up on Nobody's and rant about how good they are
NAU - Wouldnt even consider it. Maybe next year


Come to think about it. We asked just about everyone to play us and guess what. Only a few selected teams had the B@LL$ to play us. So call us weak or whatever. Its not our fault. When we sucked it was easy to get teams here.

i.e Young Town Stat, Northern Iowa, Portland St. The list goes on and on.

I, for one, would love to have a home and home with Cal Poly. Couldn't happen for another 5 years with our OOC games set, but I think it would be good to get a West Coast team out here and maybe even on TV so the Northeast fans could get to see them as well.

[Stang Fever]

That would be the best possible situation every. I would love it

[malibudude]

Well, at least you can look forward to four more years of Cal Poly vs. Montana. xthumbsupx


Absolutely, hopefully they continue to be great games. Now if you could convince the kitties from Bozeman to get back on the horse........

[UNI Pike]

Come to think about it. We asked just about everyone to play us and guess what. Only a few selected teams had the B@LL$ to play us. So call us weak or whatever. Its not our fault. When we sucked it was easy to get teams here.

i.e Young Town Stat, Northern Iowa, Portland St. The list goes on and on.

Please elaborate - are you saying these teams only played you when you were not good? Trying not to read into the comment if it is not there.

[URMite]

As has been tirelessly brought up before, the standard seems to be playing East Coast teams. When Western team fans say "our team is good/underrated" East coast fans seem to always say "who have you played". The only legit or acceptable way to address that question seems to be the ability to point to a game against an East Coast team. Common opponents are, well, common when comparing EC vs. EC teams & a rarity when comparing EC vs. WC teams.

If all you East Coast schools would man-up and resign yourself to losing $500k on a road trip to MT, WA, UT or CA you would have your stats to back up your claim that your-East-Coast team is better than my-Western-team. :D

I think both sides (East/West) do too much of that, there are just more of us (east teams). If a team win a game too easily, most people from the other coast seem to think "they can't be that good, the team they beat must be bad"

It would be nice to see more transcontinental games during the regular season for both sides to be able to judge, but....$$$$ will always prevent it. :(

[Stang Fever]

Please elaborate - are you saying these teams only played you when you were not good? Trying not to read into the comment if it is not there.

Let me tone down the comment some.

What I am trying to say is this: When we were considered a sub .500 team. It was easy for Poly to get games home or away.

Ever since we become an actual contender and a threat. Its become increasingly harder for us to get games with quality teams.

[UNI Pike]

Let me tone down the comment some.

What I am trying to say is this: When we were considered a sub .500 team. It was easy for Poly to get games home or away.

Ever since we become an actual contender and a threat. Its become increasingly harder for us to get games with quality teams.

Unfortunately, the curse of being west of the MS river. MT, UNI, SIU, previously Youngstown had the same issue. That is the reason we have traveled to Cal Poly, Southern Utah, Stephen F Austin, Northern Arizona, etc. in the past 6 years. Seems we are always traveling south or west, never east unless it is an odd numbered year. xviolinx

Don't even ask about get a home game...

[Poly Pigskin]

Instead of calling "East coast bias" and running why don't you go ahead and tell me what's so special about their schedule and beating up on teams they should beat?

Their only FCS quality win is against NW State. I don't even consider SDSU quality, despite being FBS, as they are terrible.

I also think it's funny that you're calling ECB on me when I have both Montana AND Weber State as seeds. You won't find too many people who think they both deserve seeding on this board.

Plenty of FCS schools play crappy FBS teams, and how many actually pulled the upset? 2. Every FBS school was paying extra attention to FCS opponents because of App last year, and SDSU would have been gunning for us anyway after having lost the last matchup. Even without all that, the scholarship difference alone should make it a quality win.

And while you scoff at the other SDSU, NW St (admittedly not the strongest of opponents, but no slouches either), let me point out that these road trips are a lot more taxing than the East Coast bus rides you guys have. How many times do Eastern teams travel 2 time zones to play a game? Once a decade? If that? Cal Poly was scheduled to do it 4 times this season alone. It'll only end up being 3 because of McNeese, but we easily won those games, when often long road trips can lead to lackluster performances (see: Northeastern over UC Davis, Maryland over Cal off the top of my head).

If we somehow manage to upset Wisconsin (which I seriously doubt), you can bet your sweet a$$ we'd be getting a seed. That would be 9-1 with 2 FBS wins (how often does that happen?!?). You can't seriously tell me there would be 4 more qualified teams. That's a total crock.

[AZGrizFan]

Plenty of FCS schools play crappy FBS teams, and how many actually pulled the upset? 2. Every FBS school was paying extra attention to FCS opponents because of App last year, and SDSU would have been gunning for us anyway after having lost the last matchup. Even without all that, the scholarship difference alone should make it a quality win.

And while you scoff at the other SDSU, NW St (admittedly not the strongest of opponents, but no slouches either), let me point out that these road trips are a lot more taxing than the East Coast bus rides you guys have. How many times do Eastern teams travel 2 time zones to play a game? Once a decade? If that? Cal Poly was scheduled to do it 4 times this season alone. It'll only end up being 3 because of McNeese, but we easily won those games, when often long road trips can lead to lackluster performances (see: Northeastern over UC Davis, Maryland over Cal off the top of my head).

If we somehow manage to upset Wisconsin (which I seriously doubt), you can bet your sweet a$$ we'd be getting a seed. That would be 9-1 with 2 FBS wins (how often does that happen?!?). You can't seriously tell me there would be 4 more qualified teams. That's a total crock.

100% agreement. Spot on post, Poly. xnodx xnodx xnodx

[BDKJMU]

Instead of calling "East coast bias" and running why don't you go ahead and tell me what's so special about their schedule and beating up on teams they should beat?

Their only FCS quality win is against NW State. I don't even consider SDSU quality, despite being FBS, as they are terrible.

I also think it's funny that you're calling ECB on me when I have both Montana AND Weber State as seeds. You won't find too many people who think they both deserve seeding on this board.

Ditto Edge. Its a good possibility that between the top 3 western teams, Montana, Weber, CP, 2 will be seeds. At minimum one will be.

[Bulldog87]

SCSU, for a Saturday afternoon playoff game... they might have more than 22,000 there... let the Times & Democrat Hype machine build it up xlolx

They had over 17,000 for the Hampton game, more people were at that game, than at SC State's homecoming game.

If Wofford makes the playoffs without a seed, and SCSU wins the MEAC... the Terriers will be in Orangeburg.

Check out these Hampton @ SCSU
pictures.http://picasaweb.google.com/Marquis.Hodges/SCSUVsHampton2008#HC would've been soldouy if it weren't for the windy rainy weather. We still had over 16,000 in the stands for that game. small College fan makes a very good point about richardson's bidding ability.

[griz&beer]

Three out of the 6 best team are Montana, Webber and Col Polly. For damn sure top ten.

[LehighFan11]

Plenty of FCS schools play crappy FBS teams, and how many actually pulled the upset? 2. Every FBS school was paying extra attention to FCS opponents because of App last year, and SDSU would have been gunning for us anyway after having lost the last matchup. Even without all that, the scholarship difference alone should make it a quality win.

And while you scoff at the other SDSU, NW St (admittedly not the strongest of opponents, but no slouches either), let me point out that these road trips are a lot more taxing than the East Coast bus rides you guys have. How many times do Eastern teams travel 2 time zones to play a game? Once a decade? If that? Cal Poly was scheduled to do it 4 times this season alone. It'll only end up being 3 because of McNeese, but we easily won those games, when often long road trips can lead to lackluster performances (see: Northeastern over UC Davis, Maryland over Cal off the top of my head).

If we somehow manage to upset Wisconsin (which I seriously doubt), you can bet your sweet a$$ we'd be getting a seed. That would be 9-1 with 2 FBS wins (how often does that happen?!?). You can't seriously tell me there would be 4 more qualified teams. That's a total crock.

Good point about Poly having alot of time zone travel compared to most teams especially east coast teams. Where we see this the most is in the NFL with Cardinals, 9ers, Chargers struggling on the east coast. Cardinals are great at home but are absolutely terrible on the east coast.

[IaaScribe]

I'm making a projection on how I think the standings will look at the end of the season, not on how they stand now. Here it goes:

Tennessee-Martin (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Western Illinois (8-3) at Cal Poly (8-2)

South Carolina State (10-2) at #4 Wofford (9-2)
Villanova (10-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

Texas State (8-4) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
Richmond (9-3) at Southern Illinois (9-2)

Liberty (11-1) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
New Hampshire (8-3) at Montana (11-1)

Some explanations:

* That Liberty spot goes to Elon if the Phoenix win in Lynchburg. I have Elon losing that game and finishing at 8-4, and out of the dance. I just think they'll have a hell of a time bouncing back after playing App, that's all.

* I've got Western Illinois in over Northern Iowa based on a projection of Western beating UNI. If UNI wins, that projection flips to the Panthers. At 9-3, Northern Iowa's most impressive win would be against South Dakota State.

* For some sneaky reason, I think Furman slips at Samford next week, and I project the Paladins to finish 7-5 with an additional loss to Wofford. Even if Furman doesn't slip, 8-4 with the best win coming against Colgate probably won't be enough to leapfrog an 11-1 conference champion in Liberty, even if that conference is admittedly much weaker than the SoCon.

* I'm projecting Northern Arizona to lose to Montana and Eastern, and that will leave the Jacks at 8-4 with little argument.

* I think New Hampshire will have the best resume of a jumble of teams in the CAA North. I project UMass at 8-4 with a loss to UNH, and Maine at 8-4 with a win over UNH but a loss to UMass. In that case, the win at Army will stand out for UNH. Nothing on Maine's schedule gives it much at-large pop.

* I've got William & Mary at 7-4 and just outside, because I'm picking Richmond to beat W&M. If the Tribe wins that game, that puts W&M at 8-3 and Richmond at 8-4, and W&M probably gets the nod.

* I think Tennessee State loses to Jacksonville State and finishes 9-3 with no real quality non-conference victory. Out.

Updating my picks from last week ...

Tennessee-Martin (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Richmond (9-3) at Southern Illinois (9-2)

Colgate (8-3) at #4 Montana (11-1)
Wofford (9-2) at Villanova (10-2)

Northwestern State (7-5) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
New Hampshire (8-3) at Northern Iowa (10-2)

South Carolina State (10-2) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Elon (9-3) at Cal Poly (8-2)

Some quick thoughts:

* The Liberty loss opened a spot up and made me change my mind on what would happen in the Elon-Liberty game, which gives Elon an extra victory. The Western Illinois loss essentially makes the MVC a two-bid league, unless South Dakota State sneaks away with the auto. If that happens, someone from the SoCon (probably Elon) will get "woofed"

* Even at 9-2, Lafayette is going to have a heck of a time gaining an at-large, because the Liberty win doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of weeks ago.

* What the heck happens if Furman beats Wofford? You'd have Furman, Wofford and Elon all there with similar resumes. Wofford whipped Elon, Elon beat Furman and Furman would have beaten Wofford. I wouldn't want to be the committee in that situation.

* A few things seem clear at this point, though. The CAA North won't get more than one team. Either Richmond or W&M will get in, but not both. The Big Sky is a lock as a two-bid league, and the Patriot, OVC, MEAC and Southland are all one-bid leagues.

[santosballnewhampshire]

Updating my picks from last week ...

Tennessee-Martin (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Richmond (9-3) at Southern Illinois (9-2)

Colgate (8-3) at #4 Montana (11-1)
Wofford (9-2) at Villanova (10-2)

Northwestern State (7-5) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
New Hampshire (8-3) at Northern Iowa (10-2)

South Carolina State (10-2) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Elon (9-3) at Cal Poly (8-2)

Some quick thoughts:

* The Liberty loss opened a spot up and made me change my mind on what would happen in the Elon-Liberty game, which gives Elon an extra victory. The Western Illinois loss essentially makes the MVC a two-bid league, unless South Dakota State sneaks away with the auto. If that happens, someone from the SoCon (probably Elon) will get "woofed"

* Even at 9-2, Lafayette is going to have a heck of a time gaining an at-large, because the Liberty win doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of weeks ago.

* What the heck happens if Furman beats Wofford? You'd have Furman, Wofford and Elon all there with similar resumes. Wofford whipped Elon, Elon beat Furman and Furman would have beaten Wofford. I wouldn't want to be the committee in that situation.

* A few things seem clear at this point, though. The CAA North won't get more than one team. Either Richmond or W&M will get in, but not both. The Big Sky is a lock as a two-bid league, and the Patriot, OVC, MEAC and Southland are all one-bid leagues.

sending Colgate to Montana would be questionable

[BDKJMU]

NAU no not this time. lets say Western IL.

Western Ill already has 3 losses. They can't finish better than 8-3, and with a Div II, that would only be 7 Div I wins.

Outside of 10 game Cal Poly, No-one with less than 8 Div I wins will make the field.

I agree with Crusader except for I think it will be UR as a 4th CAA instead of NAU.

[uofmman1122]

sending Colgate to Montana would be questionableWhy? xeyebrowx

They sent the SoCon champion to us last year in the first round, even though we were a seed. That's infinitely more questionable than sending Colgate.

[BDKJMU]

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

Big Sky
Montana (11-1)
*Weber State (10-2) – #3 Seed

CAA
*James Madison (10-1) – #1 Seed
New Hampshire (9-2)
Richmond (9-3)
Villanova (9-2)

Great West
Cal Poly (8-2)

MEAC
*South Carolina State (10-2)

Missouri Valley
Northern Iowa (9-3)
*Southern Illinois (9-2) – #4 Seed

Ohio Valley
*Tennessee State (10-2)

Patriot
*Lafayette (10-1)

Southern
*Appalachian State (10-2) – #2 Seed
Elon (9-3)
Wofford (9-2)

Southland
*Texas State (9-3)

*Denotes predicted automatic bid recipient.


FIRST ROUND PAIRINGS:

Elon (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

Tennessee State (10-2) at #4 Southern Illinois (9-2)
Northern Iowa (9-3) at Texas State (9-3)

Cal Poly (8-2) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
New Hampshire (9-2) at Montana (11-1)

Richmond (9-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (9-2) at South Carolina State (10-2)

Thats about right although I'd say Cal Poly will get a seed over Weber.

[Chi Panther]

Updating my picks from last week ...

Tennessee-Martin (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Richmond (9-3) at Southern Illinois (9-2)

Colgate (8-3) at #4 Montana (11-1)
Wofford (9-2) at Villanova (10-2)

Northwestern State (7-5) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
New Hampshire (8-3) at Northern Iowa (10-2)

South Carolina State (10-2) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Elon (9-3) at Cal Poly (8-2)

Some quick thoughts:

* The Liberty loss opened a spot up and made me change my mind on what would happen in the Elon-Liberty game, which gives Elon an extra victory. The Western Illinois loss essentially makes the MVC a two-bid league, unless South Dakota State sneaks away with the auto. If that happens, someone from the SoCon (probably Elon) will get "woofed"

* Even at 9-2, Lafayette is going to have a heck of a time gaining an at-large, because the Liberty win doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of weeks ago.

* What the heck happens if Furman beats Wofford? You'd have Furman, Wofford and Elon all there with similar resumes. Wofford whipped Elon, Elon beat Furman and Furman would have beaten Wofford. I wouldn't want to be the committee in that situation.

* A few things seem clear at this point, though. The CAA North won't get more than one team. Either Richmond or W&M will get in, but not both. The Big Sky is a lock as a two-bid league, and the Patriot, OVC, MEAC and Southland are all one-bid leagues.


I'd be shocked if UNI played UNH in the first round 3 of the last 4 years.

I also don't want that to happen.xpeacex

[santosballnewhampshire]

I'd be shocked if UNI played UNH in the first round 3 of the last 4 years.

I also don't want that to happen.xpeacex

In 2005, it was actually the Quarterfinals...

[mainejeff]

* A few things seem clear at this point, though. The CAA North won't get more than one team.

Really???

A 9-2 UNH team and a 9-3 Maine/UMass team wouldn't both be selected???

[TexasTerror]

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina State
MVFC: Northern Iowa
OVC: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: Colgate
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Northwestern State

At-Large
1) Cal Poly
2) Montana
3) Richmond
4) Southern Illinois
5) Villanova
6) New Hampshire
7) Wofford
8) Elon

On bubble...
UMass - Win at Holy Cross looks better by the week. Big games left vs Maine and at UNH
Maine - Wins over Iona and Monmouth do nothing for me. A win at UMass and home vs UNH would be big for argument.
William & Mary - they got JMU and Richmond left to prove their worth. A split would put them in.
N. Arizona - Wins vs Montana St and at Eastern Washington would still leave them on bubble at 7-3 against Div I competition. Big Sky is not a three bid league this year and the losses to Montana and Weber State hurt. Needed a split
E. Kentucky - OVC is not a two-bid league though could be if things shake up down the stretch. Game at UT-Martin will be for AQ
Tenn St - They could win AQ, especially since they beat EKU and UT-Martin, but they've had a few too many games come down to wire. I can see a loss at J'ville State in two weeks.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

I'd be shocked if UNI played UNH in the first round 3 of the last 4 years.

I also don't want that to happen.xpeacex

Same here

[DOME]

Same here


I think it turned out well the last two times :)

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

I think it turned out well the last two times :)


thought you might

[IaaScribe]

Really???

A 9-2 UNH team and a 9-3 Maine/UMass team wouldn't both be selected???

I'm not sure that's even possible. For Maine to get to 9-3, they'd have to win out, and for New Hampshire to still then be 9-2, they'd have to win at Villanova.

Most likely scenario still is UNH 8-3, Maine 8-4, UMass 8-4.

If the CAA is a 5-bid league, that puts the at-larges as:

4 CAA
1 Big Sky
1 MVC
Cal Poly
1 SoCon

No way the SoCon is limited to just one at-large.

[mainejeff]

I'm not sure that's even possible. For Maine to get to 9-3, they'd have to win out, and for New Hampshire to still then be 9-2, they'd have to win at Villanova.

But it IS possible........you just said it yourself! xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Eight Legger]

I would agree with the CAA North being a one-bid division. UMass has no chance of making the playoffs, IMO. If Maine wins out, it might make it ahead of UNH. I am rooting for Maine to do that, actually, since we killed them and that would help our at-large chances if it somehow came to that.

[Native]

I'm not sure that's even possible. For Maine to get to 9-3, they'd have to win out, and for New Hampshire to still then be 9-2, they'd have to win at Villanova.

Most likely scenario still is UNH 8-3, Maine 8-4, UMass 8-4.

If the CAA is a 5-bid league, that puts the at-larges as:

4 CAA
1 Big Sky
1 MVC
Cal Poly
1 SoCon

No way the SoCon is limited to just one at-large.

Yes, way!

Unlikely, perhaps, but yes, there is a way SoCon could be limited to only one at-large bid. Elon, Furman and Samford are all on the bubble. Elon is highest at #12. Since five auto-bids will be extended to lower-rated teams, the cutoff will be #11. SIX CAA teams, not including JMU, are rated higher than all three by Sagarin. Sagarin is not the gospel but is used by the seeding committee.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

UMaine/UMass this weekend UNH/UMass next weekend UNH/UMaine the final weekend.

The team that goes 2-0 takes the bid.
If the all go 1-1 a chance none of them go.
Unless UNH wins in Philly this weekend.

[IaaScribe]

well, yeah jeff, it's possible. just unlikely.

Native: Samford's on the bubble? I don't think so. Wofford is pretty firm, even with the loss to App. Elon will get in if it beats Western and Liberty. Furman has a shot if it wins out. All have better resumes than those in the CAA North. UMass blew its chance when it lost at home to Richmond. The only way the North gets two teams is if UNH wins in Philly and Maine/or Mass wins out.

And if you're trying to sell me a third Big Sky team, stop. NAU was blown out by the only two really good FCS teams on its schedule. No signature win.

[jmc_jackrabbit]

San Diego State was quality at the time, as they had a year to deal with this revenge game, CP did beat them in 2006, SDSU was beaten up in the CP game, lost 3 out of 4 DL. They played ND well and should have won, what was left of their defense, ND took out. They have since lost their very good QB and have been crap since. Agreed. The schedule is what it is, CP plays in a small conference, we have two new members, non-counters, obliged to play one this year, USD, they are not bad. Lost a game to MSU via weather. South Dakota State is a quality MVFC team, particulary at home. NWST is tops of the Southland at the moment. Quite frankly if you are an OOC FCS team trying to make the playoffs why would you schedule CP, if you do not have to? Hey, we have a lot of football left, Davis is a rivalry game and they always play it tough with Poly. After that comes Wisky, at the beginning of the year I would say 1 in a hundred shot, now based on what both teams have done, it is less.

Right now, Poly is a very dominating team, their offense is off the chart,
barring injuries, I think they are the match of any team in the FCS. I wish we had a few more games scheduled to substantiate this assertion. Just my thoughts.

Cal Poly is the best team I have seen this year. That includes UNI. Cal Poly is just so multi-dimensional. UNI is a great team, too, but I see the Mustangs as a top 5 team for sure.

[mainejeff]

I would agree with the CAA North being a one-bid division. UMass has no chance of making the playoffs, IMO. If Maine wins out, it might make it ahead of UNH. I am rooting for Maine to do that, actually, since we killed them and that would help our at-large chances if it somehow came to that.

So if UNH goes 9-2 with a win over Army.......they are out? xconfusedx

[Maroon&White]

I would agree with the CAA North being a one-bid division. UMass has no chance of making the playoffs, IMO. If Maine wins out, it might make it ahead of UNH. I am rooting for Maine to do that, actually, since we killed them and that would help our at-large chances if it somehow came to that.

Just wondering, how exactly does UMass have no chance, but Maine does?


yorkcounty - I think Maine and UMass both need to go 3-0 to have a chance for the playoffs. Beyond playing each other and UNH, UMass has Hofstra and Maine has URI left.

[mainejeff]

UMaine/UMass this weekend UNH/UMass next weekend UNH/UMaine the final weekend.

The team that goes 2-0 takes the bid.
If the all go 1-1 a chance none of them go.
Unless UNH wins in Philly this weekend.

I don't think that you are giving those 3 teams enough credit. Maybe you are believing CAA South fans too much? xconfusedx

EVERYONE has lost to JMU and Richmond this season.

Maine and UMass don't play Villanova this season and UNH hasn't played them yet. The Wildcats have beat up on Northeastern, URI, and the dregs on the CAA South.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Just wondering, how exactly does UMass have no chance, but Maine does?


yorkcounty - I think Maine and UMass both need to go 3-0 to have a chance for the playoffs. Beyond playing each other and UNH, UMass has Hofstra and Maine has URI left.

I know I shouldn't, but I was giving you those games.:o

[mainejeff]

Just wondering, how exactly does UMass have no chance, but Maine does?


yorkcounty - I think Maine and UMass both need to go 3-0 to have a chance for the playoffs. Beyond playing each other and UNH, UMass has Hofstra and Maine has URI left.

Agreed.......Maine vs. UMass is an elimination game, loser goes home and winner moves on. I'm just happy that Maine is playing for something in November! xsmileyclapx xsmileyclapx xsmileyclapx

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

I don't think that you are giving those 3 teams enough credit. Maybe you are believing CAA South fans too much? xconfusedx

EVERYONE has lost to JMU and Richmond this season.

Maine and UMass don't play Villanova this season and UNH hasn't played them yet. The Wildcats have beat up on Northeastern, URI, and the dregs on the CAA South.


My point is an an 8 win UNH, UMaine or UMass could lose out to an 8 win WM or Richmond based on head to head.

[Chi Panther]

Cal Poly is the best team I have seen this year. That includes UNI. Cal Poly is just so multi-dimensional. UNI is a great team, too, but I see the Mustangs as a top 5 team for sure.

That is like me saying, USD is better than SDSU.....xeekx

[Native]

well, yeah jeff, it's possible. just unlikely.

Native: Samford's on the bubble? I don't think so. Wofford is pretty firm, even with the loss to App. Elon will get in if it beats Western and Liberty. Furman has a shot if it wins out. All have better resumes than those in the CAA North. UMass blew its chance when it lost at home to Richmond. The only way the North gets two teams is if UNH wins in Philly and Maine/or Mass wins out.

And if you're trying to sell me a third Big Sky team, stop. NAU was blown out by the only two really good FCS teams on its schedule. No signature win.

Samford is not on the bubble at 2-3 in conference play? What was their signature win, against the Faulkner Eagles? xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

Yes, I understand that Wofford is still in the mix. I did NOT list the puppies as being on the bubble. Jeff still rates them #7 this week, even after the beat-down.

Nope, not trying to sell NAU ... yet! But, I would sure take them over Samford. At this point, other teams are more deserving than either Samford or Northern Arizona.

[SoConisMyAntiDrug]

I think if Samford would have defeated Furman yesterday (which was possible but two consecutive missed PAT's) then I would really believe that Samford had a legit shot, especially already playing App and Elon

[griz&beer]

So lets see a new list. Lets see nuber 1 -4 then pair the rest up...