Playoff Picture - where we stand

[Eight Legger]

So, we have 4 weeks left in the regular season. I think at this point we should have a pretty good sense of the playoff picture and who has a legitimate chance to make it in, so I have put together my best guess at this. Let me know where you think I am wrong or have missed something, and maybe we can narrow things down a bit.

The way I see it, there are four autobid leagues that will only get one team: Southland, OVC, Patriot, MEAC.

That leaves the Big Sky, CAA, Gateway and SoCon as four autobid leagues that still have multiple teams alive. In my estimation, the only teams outside of these four leagues with a realistic chance at an at-large bid are Cal Poly and Liberty.

I count 16 teams in these four leagues as having playoff possibilities. Four of them will earn auto bids, so that leaves 12. Add Cal Poly and Liberty and you have 14 teams fighting for 8 spots.

The teams in these four leagues that are still alive, in my opinion, are:
Big Sky - Weber State, Montana, Northern Arizona
CAA - JMU, Villanova, UR, UNH, UMass, W&M
Gateway - UNI, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois
SoCon - App State, Elon, Wofford, Furman

Of these, I believe only Weber State and JMU are locks to be in. The rest still need help or have work to do, or both. Weber should make it because in the event it doesn't get the autobid, it has beaten the two teams who might (Montana and No. Arizona) and has done so soundly. Similarly, JMU has beaten all of the other top teams in the CAA.

If Montana beats Northern Arizona next week, Montana should be in (barring an absurd loss down the stretch) and Northern Arizona is likely done.

UNH must beat Villanova and UMass to make the playoffs, in my opinion. A loss to either and I think the Wildcats miss it.

I feel UMass is already done, as it has no quality wins and only one chance left (vs. UNH) to get a moderate one.

Villanova is as close to a lock as a team with 4 games left can be.

W&M will need to beat JMU and Richmond to make it. I can see a scenario in which Richmond could lose to W&M and still make it, but that is unlikely, so the UR-W&M game could be an elimination game also.

App should make it, but if it loses to Elon and Wofford, things could get interesting.

Elon needs to beat Liberty and it will be in (and Liberty will be out).

[PaladinFan]

Someone in the SoCon is going to get the short end this season.

[WrenFGun]

So, we have 4 weeks left in the regular season. I think at this point we should have a pretty good sense of the playoff picture and who has a legitimate chance to make it in, so I have put together my best guess at this. Let me know where you think I am wrong or have missed something, and maybe we can narrow things down a bit.

The way I see it, there are four autobid leagues that will only get one team: Southland, OVC, Patriot, MEAC.

That leaves the Big Sky, CAA, Gateway and SoCon as four autobid leagues that still have multiple teams alive. In my estimation, the only teams outside of these four leagues with a realistic chance at an at-large bid are Cal Poly and Liberty.

I count 16 teams in these four leagues as having playoff possibilities. Four of them will earn auto bids, so that leaves 12. Add Cal Poly and Liberty and you have 14 teams fighting for 8 spots.

The teams in these four leagues that are still alive, in my opinion, are:
Big Sky - Weber State, Montana, Northern Arizona
CAA - JMU, Villanova, UR, UNH, UMass, W&M
Gateway - UNI, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois
SoCon - App State, Elon, Wofford, Furman

Of these, I believe only Weber State and JMU are locks to be in. The rest still need help or have work to do, or both. Weber should make it because in the event it doesn't get the autobid, it has beaten the two teams who might (Montana and No. Arizona) and has done so soundly. Similarly, JMU has beaten all of the other top teams in the CAA.

If Montana beats Northern Arizona next week, Montana should be in (barring an absurd loss down the stretch) and Northern Arizona is likely done.

UNH must beat Villanova and UMass to make the playoffs, in my opinion. A loss to either and I think the Wildcats miss it.

I feel UMass is already done, as it has no quality wins and only one chance left (vs. UNH) to get a moderate one.

Villanova is as close to a lock as a team with 4 games left can be.

W&M will need to beat JMU and Richmond to make it. I can see a scenario in which Richmond could lose to W&M and still make it, but that is unlikely, so the UR-W&M game could be an elimination game also.

App should make it, but if it loses to Elon and Wofford, things could get interesting.

Elon needs to beat Liberty and it will be in (and Liberty will be out).

I think you're severely underestimating UNH's chances. So in order to guarantee a playoff berth, they need to be 10-1? Give me a break. A win over Maine and Hofstra to close the season, and UNH has a shot to make the playoffs, a win over those two plus either Mass and Villanova and UNH is a mortal lock with 9 DI wins, including 1 of the 2 FCS wins over FBS teams. Army is now 3-5 in FBS, so I don't want to hear about how they are the bottom of the rung.

[eaglewraith]

After the travesty that was UNH getting into the playoffs last year, they should be forbidden from making it in this year.

[beauvighn]

Someone in the SoCon is going to get the short end this season.

If history has taught us anything about the selection committee, it will be Wofford. If we don't win the SoCon, we can't get in. When we did get the autobid last year as SoCon Co-Champ, we were relegated a #14 seed and shipped to the great state of Montana. You also have to account for the politically correct picks. Somebody on the committee has a friend who's cousin has connections at such and such a school . Somebody has to go to JMU the first round and lose 800 -0.

[UNHWildCats]

If UNH goes 9-2 with a loss to either Villanova or UMass theres no way they dont make it...

[UNHWildCats]

After the travesty that was UNH getting into the playoffs last year, they should be forbidden from making it in this year.
you didnt get 7 Div I wins.... get over it.

[rcny46]

I think you're severely underestimating UNH's chances. So in order to guarantee a playoff berth, they need to be 10-1? Give me a break. A win over Maine and Hofstra to close the season, and UNH has a shot to make the playoffs, a win over those two plus either Mass and Villanova and UNH is a mortal lock with 9 DI wins, including 1 of the 2 FCS wins over FBS teams. Army is now 3-5 in FBS, so I don't want to hear about how they are the bottom of the rung.


I'm in total agreement with you on the fact that UNH can afford to go 1-1 in their games with Villanova and UMass as long as they can take care of Maine and Hofstra.If they can do all that they will be in.I'm not sure about a 2-2 finish though.That might make for some anxious moments on selection day.Anyway,even at this point it's still to early to make these predictions in a lot of cases-too many important games left to be played.

[rcny46]

After the travesty that was UNH getting into the playoffs last year, they should be forbidden from making it in this year.

Yeah,right.The top ranked team in 1-AA had to come from behind at the end of the game to win-in their place.Travesty my butt.

[Poly Pigskin]

I think you're severely underestimating UNH's chances. So in order to guarantee a playoff berth, they need to be 10-1? Give me a break. A win over Maine and Hofstra to close the season, and UNH has a shot to make the playoffs, a win over those two plus either Mass and Villanova and UNH is a mortal lock with 9 DI wins, including 1 of the 2 FCS wins over FBS teams. Army is now 3-5 in FBS, so I don't want to hear about how they are the bottom of the rung.

I think UNH has to beat at least one of those two, Maine and Hofstra won't be enough. 8-3 is good, but which of those 8 would you call a quality win? I just think there will be many at larges with better resumes. 9-2 definitely gets them in though.

Edit: forgot about the army win which is obviously impressive, but I still think they need to beat Mass or Nova, the committee usually doesn't favor teams that have lost more than they've won to end the season.

[UNHWildCats]

BTW that UNH/UMass game could get uglier then Portland State/Weber State last season.

[DSUrocks07]

Yeah,right.The top ranked team in 1-AA had to come from behind at the end of the game to win-in their place.Travesty my butt.

xnonox

What is this 1-AA you speak of?

[eaglewraith]

xnonox

What is this 1-AA you speak of?

The division we play in.

[JayJ79]

xnonox

What is this 1-AA you speak of?

I think it is the subdivision that the Gateway and the Atlantic 10 participate in.

[slycat]

The Southland Conference will be interesting.

UCA - not eligible (3-0 conference record)

McNeese - after loss tonight can only get 6 D1 wins (1-2)

NWST - must win out to get 7 D1 wins (2-1)

Nicholls - after win tonight can only get 5 D1 wins (1-2)

SFA - can only get 6 D1 wins (2-1)

SELA - can lose one more game to get 7 D1 wins (1-2)

SHSU - can only get 5 D1 wins (0-3)

TXST - can lose one more game to get 7 D1 wins (2-1)

Texas St and SELA are the only ones who can get the 7 wins needed for an at large bid. SHSU is out of the race. SFA, McNeese, NWST, and Nicholls must win conference to get auto bid.

McNeese and Nicholls must have things fall in place to have a chance.

Still up in the air but Texas St is in the drivers seat. The game next week against NWST will make things much more clear.

[WrenFGun]

After the travesty that was UNH getting into the playoffs last year, they should be forbidden from making it in this year.

Seriously...the fans that continue to say this just sound stupid. Get 7 DI wins, or don't complain. The only teams I want to hear from are Norfolk State (much lower GPI) and Villanova (arguably more deserving).

[WrenFGun]

I think it is the subdivision that the Gateway and the Atlantic 10 participate in.

xlolx Well done.

[DSUrocks07]

Seriously...the fans that continue to say this just sound stupid. Get 7 DI wins, or don't complain. The only teams I want to hear from are Norfolk State (much lower GPI) and Villanova (arguably more deserving).

xthumbsupx

no offense UNH

[DSUrocks07]

Well I can tell you that the MEAC will not get an at-large, due to events outside of our control, but the MEAC title is still up for grabs.

Barring any unforseen stumbles along the way the teams left are:

SC State
Hampton
Morgan State xeekx

[UNHWildCats]

The division we play in.
There is not, nor has there ever been a Div 1-AA.

There used to be a Div I-AA though.

[tribe_pride]

W&M will need to beat JMU and Richmond to make it. I can see a scenario in which Richmond could lose to W&M and still make it, but that is unlikely, so the UR-W&M game could be an elimination game also.



No way that W&M needs to win out to make the playoffs. Beating either Richmond or JMU should be enough with an 8-3 record.

[Eight Legger]

I see the points about UNH going 1-1 against Villanova and UMass and making it. I guess I feel like to ensure they make it, they need to win both, and here's why: I don't think UMass is a playoff team, even with a win over UNH...hence, UNH losing to UMass hurts, and beating UMass doesn't provide a big-time win. I also think it's likely that JMU, Villanova and UR all make it. If W&M beats JMU, then loses to UR, I think the Tribe also make it by virtue of having beaten a top-10 team, something UNH could not claim. I don't see 5 from the CAA making it this year.

At 8-3 with no wins over top 25 teams, I think UNH could be outside looking in...depending what else happens with other teams, of course.

[appstate38]

Is this going to become another justification thread on why the CAA deserves 5-6 teams in the playoffs again???

[Appstate29]

Is this going to become another justification thread on why the CAA deserves 5-6 teams in the playoffs again???

with the SLC and the MVFC down this year...might be seeing 5 teams from the CAA again. Might be seeing 4 teams from the SoCon though too.

[Eight Legger]

Personally, I see 4 teams from the CAA max.

[UNHWildCats]

I think you more likely to see three from the caa then five.

[WrenFGun]

No way that W&M needs to win out to make the playoffs. Beating either Richmond or JMU should be enough with an 8-3 record.

Agreed, if William & Mary beats either, they're in, assuming they win-out otherwise.

[WrenFGun]

I see the points about UNH going 1-1 against Villanova and UMass and making it. I guess I feel like to ensure they make it, they need to win both, and here's why: I don't think UMass is a playoff team, even with a win over UNH...hence, UNH losing to UMass hurts, and beating UMass doesn't provide a big-time win. I also think it's likely that JMU, Villanova and UR all make it. If W&M beats JMU, then loses to UR, I think the Tribe also make it by virtue of having beaten a top-10 team, something UNH could not claim. I don't see 5 from the CAA making it this year.

At 8-3 with no wins over top 25 teams, I think UNH could be outside looking in...depending what else happens with other teams, of course.

UNH would be 9-2 with a win over Villanova or UMass and winning their other two games, which will be no easy feat.

[rcny46]

xnonox

What is this 1-AA you speak of?

You know,what some people refer to as D-1,FCS.I don't much care for that designation,so it will always be 1-AA to me.Sorry.

[Longhorn]

At 8-3 with no wins over top 25 teams, I think UNH could be outside looking in...depending what else happens with other teams, of course.


Huh? No way Jose. An 8-3 UNH with a FBS win is a lock. Take it to the bank. Seeesh. UR Homer Glasses. xnodx

[GATA]

you didnt get 7 Div I wins.... get over it.

Who's the paint covered kid in the picture?

No sir...I don't like it...xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

[SuperEagle]

you didnt get 7 Div I wins.... get over it.
**
We thought if you got the CRAP kicked out of you by NorthEastern at home, you automotically were left out of the playoffs. :)
That should be a rule though

[South Carolina Duke]

[QUOTE=tribe_pride;1172831]No way that W&M needs to win out to make the playoffs. Beating either Richmond or JMU should be enough with an 8-3 record.[/QUOTE

Stranger things have happened, however doubtful on either!

[UNHWildCats]

Who's the paint covered kid in the picture?

No sir...I don't like it...xeyebrowx xeyebrowx
Its a 28 year old Hong Kong actor/singer named Edison Chen

[bpcats]

Even if NAU loses to UM next week, I could still see them getting into the playoffs if they run the table the rest of the way in the Big Sky. They would have a record of 8-3 with 7 D-1AA wins with losses to two top ten teams in Weber and Montana. A win next week would guarantee them a spot in the playoffs and probably ensure that three teams from the Big Sky would get in.

[WrenFGun]

Huh? No way Jose. An 8-3 UNH with a FBS win is a lock. Take it to the bank. Seeesh. UR Homer Glasses. xnodx

I like the optimism, but I'm a little more hesitant!

[WrenFGun]

Even if NAU loses to UM next week, I could still see them getting into the playoffs if they run the table the rest of the way in the Big Sky. They would have a record of 8-3 with 7 D-1AA wins with losses to two top ten teams in Weber and Montana. A win next week would guarantee them a spot in the playoffs and probably ensure that three teams from the Big Sky would get in.

They'd have a shot, but for people berating UNH's quality wins, they wouldn't be close to that level (their best win seemingly being Eastern Washington?).

[Poly Pigskin]

Huh? No way Jose. An 8-3 UNH with a FBS win is a lock. Take it to the bank. Seeesh. UR Homer Glasses. xnodx

No way are they a lock. There are gonna be a lot more at large candidates with more than 1 quality win, and they're gonna be a lot more recent than 9/6. The committee tends to put a lot of weight on recent performance, and going 1-2 in the last 3 games isn't too impressive.

[Maroon&White]

I can see a scenario in which Richmond could lose to W&M and still make it

What scenario would that be?

[Chi Panther]

Its a 28 year old Hong Kong actor/singer named Edison Chen

I thought it was "rain" from S. Korea.....xthumbsupx

[rcny46]

**
We thought if you got the CRAP kicked out of you by NorthEastern at home, you automotically were left out of the playoffs. :)
That should be a rule though

I really did think it was all over after that debacle.

[JMU Duke Dog]

Here goes nothing once again...

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

Big Sky
Montana (11-1)
*Weber State (10-2) – #3 Seed

CAA
*James Madison (10-1) – #1 Seed
New Hampshire (9-2)
Richmond (9-3)
Villanova (9-2)

Great West
Cal Poly (8-2)

MEAC
*South Carolina State (10-2)

Missouri Valley
Northern Iowa (9-3)
*Southern Illinois (9-2) – #4 Seed

Ohio Valley
*Tennessee State (10-2)

Patriot
*Lafayette (10-1)

Southern
*Appalachian State (10-2) – #2 Seed
Elon (9-3)
Wofford (9-2)

Southland
*Texas State (9-3)

*Denotes predicted automatic bid recipient.


FIRST ROUND PAIRINGS:

Elon (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

Tennessee State (10-2) at #4 Southern Illinois (9-2)
Northern Iowa (9-3) at Texas State (9-3)

Cal Poly (8-2) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
New Hampshire (9-2) at Montana (11-1)

Richmond (9-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (9-2) at South Carolina State (10-2)

[UNI Pike]

Northern Iowa has a new AD that will outbid anyone - though I do not know where he gets the cash....?

Anyway, you are pinning another loss on us somewhere, WIU seems to be the candidate for that, but you are leaving them out.

?

[JMU Duke Dog]

Northern Iowa has a new AD that will outbid anyone - though I do not know where he gets the cash....?

Anyway, you are pinning another loss on us somewhere, WIU seems to be the candidate for that, but you are leaving them out.

?

It was a tossup for me choosing who would host between Northern Iowa and Texas State but I could easily see Northern Iowa bidding well enough to host as well. I predicted that Western Illinois would win against Northern Iowa then lose to Southern Illinois and another conference opponent.

[Poly Pigskin]

It was a tossup for me choosing who would host between Northern Iowa and Texas State but I could easily see Northern Iowa bidding well enough to host as well. I predicted that Western Illinois would win against Northern Iowa then lose to Southern Illinois and leaving the Leathernecks next in line for the playoffs if Cal Poly loses to someone else remaining besides Wisconsin.

fixed

[mvemjsunpx]

Northern Iowa has a new AD that will outbid anyone - though I do not know where he gets the cash....?



That's not really how the unseeded game bids work. The "bid" is based on attendance, quality of facilities, & how much money the game expects to bring in.

UNI should get a home game against Texas State based on those factors, though.

[UNI Pike]

The facilities are a non-issue for UNI & TX ST. We were sent there in 2005 playoff, not certain of the year?

Capacity is roughly the same, but I believe TX ST has slightly more seats.

That leaves $.

Sorry, my original post was much like many of my geometry proofs, missing many of the steps before the payoff.

[mvemjsunpx]

The facilities are a non-issue for UNI & TX ST. We were sent there in 2005 playoff, not certain of the year?

Capacity is roughly the same, but I believe TX ST has slightly more seats.

That leaves $.

Sorry, my original post was much like many of my geometry proofs, missing many of the steps before the payoff.


Texas State hosted UNI in 2005 because Texas State was seeded & UNI was not.

[UNI Pike]

BTW - if we lose to WIU, we are likely not invited unless we somehow get the auto bid.

UNI has never received an at large invite since 1985. I am looking for us to break the streak this year.

[PaladinFan]

Has UNH played a ranked team this year?

[IaaScribe]

NAU? Unless the Jacks beat Montana, no. No shot. None. Who did NAU beat? Sac State? Portland State? Northern Colorado? And you got KILLED by Weber at HOME.

I think Furman is in trouble unless the Paladins can beat Wofford. If you finish fourth place in the SoCon and lose to the top 3 teams, that proves little.

Liberty HAS to go 11-1 to make it. If the Flames go 10-2 and lose to Elon, they have ZERO quality wins. No playoffs.

[GolfingGriz]

NAU? Unless the Jacks beat Montana, no. No shot. None. Who did NAU beat? Sac State? Portland State? Northern Colorado? And you got KILLED by Weber at HOME.

I think Furman is in trouble unless the Paladins can beat Wofford. If you finish fourth place in the SoCon and lose to the top 3 teams, that proves little.

Liberty HAS to go 11-1 to make it. If the Flames go 10-2 and lose to Elon, they have ZERO quality wins. No playoffs.
Agreed. More than likely the BSC became a two bid league today.

[smcwildcat]

well said longhorn..... 8-3 is def. legit

[crunifan]

Never in a million years would I think an 9-3 UNI squad (whose only losses are on the road at BYU and top 25's SIU and WIU) would not make the playoffs.

I really think next week at Western Illinois is a must win. I really think UNI needs to be 10-2 to get into the playoffs. Lord knows the selection committee has not been kind to the Panthers. We've never gotten an at large bid.

[art vandelay]

hey UNH plays who is on the schedual. they cant do anything about the teams. not to mention W&M and Nova are just about as tuff as richmond and JMU so this whole week southern CAA teams is a load of crap. if I was W&M or Nova i would be getting pretty sick of the arrogance of JMU, UR, and UD.

[UNHWildCats]

I thought it was "rain" from S. Korea.....xthumbsupx
Rain is much sexier

[Reign of Terrier]

I think if Elon and wofford finish with 9 wins they will get in, App could probably get in at 8. Furman and GSU are the only ones still eligible outside of those three. If Furman loses to samford that puts them in a must win situation against GSU and Wofford. I just don't know if the vermine can do that.

[LehighFan11]

UNH is in at 9-2. But I don't want to hear their name if they are 8-3.

[R.A.]

MEAC
SCSU 10-2 (8-0) Automatic Bid
FAMU 10-2 (6-2) At- Large Bid

[Eight Legger]

What scenario would that be?

By no means am I confident that this would happen, only that it could happen. It would take UNH and UMass both losing two more games, W&M beating JMU and winning out, including beating UR by a point or two, and UR dominating its other two opponents (Hofstra and Delaware). Four teams are going to make it from the CAA, and in this scenario, all four would come from the South.

I'm also curious what people think would happen to App if it happened to lose to Elon and Wofford. It would be 8-4, with losses to three top 10 teams and an FBS school. Assuming my scenario above, Richmond also would be 8-4 with three losses to top 10 teams and an FBS school. That would be an interesting decision if it came down to those teams fighting it out for one spot.

[ccd494]

By no means am I confident that this would happen, only that it could happen. It would take UNH and UMass both losing two more games, W&M beating JMU and winning out, including beating UR by a point or two, and UR dominating its other two opponents (Hofstra and Delaware). Four teams are going to make it from the CAA, and in this scenario, all four would come from the South.

If UNH and UMass both lose two more games, that means Maine could have won out, and would be a strong contender...

[Dukie95]

If UNH and UMass both lose two more games, that means Maine could have won out, and would be a strong contender...

Good point. Things are going to get interesting, indeed.

I think JMU and VU are pretty much locks at this point. Now there are 5 teams fighting for what is probably two more spots.

[WrenFGun]

I think JMU is a lock. If Villanova beats UNH, they, too, are a lock. Villanova still needs to go 2-1 against Northeastern, UNH and UD (Parsons is a tough field to play in, and you never know what you'll get with UD).

[AZGrizFan]

I'm in total agreement with you on the fact that UNH can afford to go 1-1 in their games with Villanova and UMass as long as they can take care of Maine and Hofstra.If they can do all that they will be in.I'm not sure about a 2-2 finish though.That might make for some anxious moments on selection day.Anyway,even at this point it's still to early to make these predictions in a lot of cases-too many important games left to be played.


What happens when UNH loses to Villanova, UMass AND Maine? xlolx xlolx

[LehighFan11]

I see the CAA has 4 bids. JMU and Villanova are likely locks. Richmond will be in if they finish 3-0. W&M could get in if they beat JMU or Richmond. UNH could get in if they finish 3-1. Umass and Maine would have to run the table and depending on how the teams in the CAA finish they could get in. Ex. if Maine runs the table but Umass or UNH flops then those wins don't look so great.
My prediction would be JMU, Villanova, Richmond, UNH

[Maroons]

I guess no one figures this to be one of those years were the selection committee is desperate for decent 7-win teams?

[Edge316007]

I'm also curious what people think would happen to App if it happened to lose to Elon and Wofford. It would be 8-4, with losses to three top 10 teams and an FBS school. Assuming my scenario above, Richmond also would be 8-4 with three losses to top 10 teams and an FBS school. That would be an interesting decision if it came down to those teams fighting it out for one spot.

Not trying to be a homer, but when everything is factored in (App 3x champs, money, attendance, TV ratings) there is no way Richmond beats them out.

I don't think a lot of teams would beat them out if their season results matched up similarly.

[WrenFGun]

I see the CAA has 4 bids. JMU and Villanova are likely locks. Richmond will be in if they finish 3-0. W&M could get in if they beat JMU or Richmond. UNH could get in if they finish 3-1. Umass and Maine would have to run the table and depending on how the teams in the CAA finish they could get in. Ex. if Maine runs the table but Umass or UNH flops then those wins don't look so great.
My prediction would be JMU, Villanova, Richmond, UNH

The punishment for UNH making the playoffs last year is getting ridiculous. First of all, for the umpteenth time, the two teams that were justified in having a gripe (Villanova, with a better conference record and without an FBS win) and Norfolk State (terrible schedule, 8-3 overall, however) are the only two that should still be mentioning it. Fans of other teams that missed out really have no justification in griping over their inclusion, yet I kind of feel people are looking at UNH as a longshot because of that.

UNH made the tournament at 7-4 last season with an FBS win over Marshall (yes, a Marshall team with a WORSE resume than the current Army team that they beat this year; and yes, UNH is one of two teams to beat an FBS team in all of FCS; and yes, the committee will once again look favorably upon this win, considering what they said last season about the very same thing).

Another thing...UNH is not the only team with a questionable schedule, and yet, they're really the only team hearing the brunt of that issue. There's a lot of teams with only one quality win like UNH has (like Elon, for example) who don't get nearly the crap that UNH does. Where is the NAU bashing for their schedule? How about UMass and their amazing schedule (yes, they've lost to Richmond, JMU and TT, the three really good teams on their schedule). Are you awarding credit for losing games to good teams? If so, I'll take credit for a good, close loss to a W&M team that featured a couple of disputed calls.

UNH has a shot, and potentially a very good one, of getting in at 8-3 this season. UNH is a mortal lock at 9-2.

[Eight Legger]

I can't argue with you there, but I do think it would present an interesting dilemma. Especially since UR would have beaten Elon and App would have lost to them. But in any event, this is unlikely and I really didn't start this thread to talk about UR's chances.

[uofmman1122]

If App ends up 8-4, they still make the playoffs.

[LehighFan11]

The punishment for UNH making the playoffs last year is getting ridiculous. First of all, for the umpteenth time, the two teams that were justified in having a gripe (Villanova, with a better conference record and without an FBS win) and Norfolk State (terrible schedule, 8-3 overall, however) are the only two that should still be mentioning it. Fans of other teams that missed out really have no justification in griping over their inclusion, yet I kind of feel people are looking at UNH as a longshot because of that.

UNH made the tournament at 7-4 last season with an FBS win over Marshall (yes, a Marshall team with a WORSE resume than the current Army team that they beat this year; and yes, UNH is one of two teams to beat an FBS team in all of FCS; and yes, the committee will once again look favorably upon this win, considering what they said last season about the very same thing).

Another thing...UNH is not the only team with a questionable schedule, and yet, they're really the only team hearing the brunt of that issue. There's a lot of teams with only one quality win like UNH has (like Elon, for example) who don't get nearly the crap that UNH does. Where is the NAU bashing for their schedule? How about UMass and their amazing schedule (yes, they've lost to Richmond, JMU and TT, the three really good teams on their schedule). Are you awarding credit for losing games to good teams? If so, I'll take credit for a good, close loss to a W&M team that featured a couple of disputed calls.

UNH has a shot, and potentially a very good one, of getting in at 8-3 this season. UNH is a mortal lock at 9-2.

UNH currently has 1 quality win (Army) and has 2 potential quality wins left on their schedule (villanova and umass). If they lose to Villanova and Umass and finish 8-3, you think they should get in?

Quality wins would be: Army (FCS so it looks great) and MAYYYYYBE Maine depending now how they finish. IMO, the William and Mary loss will deciede if they get in or not. If W&M can beat either JMU or Richmond then that loss is not bad. Then again, W&M (8-3) will have a better resume than UNH (8-3) because of W&M's win over Richmond/JMU and the H2H over UNH. UNH's best chance is obviously to go 9-2 or 10-1, they are in if they do that. But, if they finish at 8-3 they need W&M to lose to both JMU and Richmond which would make that loss to W&M look worse. Umass, Maine, UNH could beat up on each other and if W&M doesn't spring an upset, none of them could be qualified.

[griz&beer]

There will be only 2 team from the Big Sky.The Griz will beat the L Jacks and NAU will be done, Montana should win out, now Webber is in the drivers seat. Will they take a step back I don't know. EWU?? PSU? ISU no they got them. One thing I do know ,you do not want to play Webber. They are for real and are tuff as they come.

[AZGrizFan]

UNH currently has 1 quality win (Army) and has 2 potential quality wins left on their schedule (villanova and umass). If they lose to Villanova and Umass and finish 8-3, you think they should get in?

Quality wins would be: Army (FCS so it looks great) and MAYYYYYBE Maine depending now how they finish. IMO, the William and Mary loss will deciede if they get in or not. If W&M can beat either JMU or Richmond then that loss is not bad. Then again, W&M (8-3) will have a better resume than UNH (8-3) because of W&M's win over Richmond/JMU and the H2H over UNH. UNH's best chance is obviously to go 9-2 or 10-1, they are in if they do that. But, if they finish at 8-3 they need W&M to lose to both JMU and Richmond which would make that loss to W&M look worse. Umass, Maine, UNH could beat up on each other and if W&M doesn't spring an upset, none of them could be qualified.

UNH is the CAA's NAU. They go 1-3 down the stretch. xpeacex

[ccd494]

Ex. if Maine runs the table but Umass or UNH flops then those wins don't look so great.

If a 9-3 CAA team misses the playoffs with losses to a Big 10 team and two top 5 FCS teams, the committee will have some serious, serious explaining to do.

[Ronbo]

If a 9-3 CAA team misses the playoffs with losses to a Big 10 team and two top 5 FCS teams, the committee will have some serious, serious explaining to do.

Yep that's exactly what could happen to NAU with losses to a 10-2 Weber State , an 11-1 Montana, and Arizona State. Hmmm.... it's assuming that Weber and Montana win out but it COULD happen.

[LehighFan11]

If a 9-3 CAA team misses the playoffs with losses to a Big 10 team and two top 5 FCS teams, the committee will have some serious, serious explaining to do.

I wouldn't be so sure. CAA and SoCon are 3 bids for sure. That leaves 4 at large bids left. Cal Poly is 1. Montana or Weber St. is 2. UNI/So Ill/W Ill is 3. Liberty runs the table 4?. I think we can avoid a 4 bid CAA, unless UNH or W&M does well.

[alexale23]

I think you're severely underestimating UNH's chances. So in order to guarantee a playoff berth, they need to be 10-1? Give me a break. A win over Maine and Hofstra to close the season, and UNH has a shot to make the playoffs, a win over those two plus either Mass and Villanova and UNH is a mortal lock with 9 DI wins, including 1 of the 2 FCS wins over FBS teams. Army is now 3-5 in FBS, so I don't want to hear about how they are the bottom of the rung.

sad but true AGREED

[WrenFGun]

sad but true AGREED

That may have been the last person I thought I'd have in my corner, but I'll take it.

[UNHWildCats]

UNH currently has 1 quality win (Army) and has 2 potential quality wins left on their schedule (villanova and umass). If they lose to Villanova and Umass and finish 8-3, you think they should get in?

Quality wins would be: Army (FCS so it looks great) and MAYYYYYBE Maine depending now how they finish. IMO, the William and Mary loss will deciede if they get in or not. If W&M can beat either JMU or Richmond then that loss is not bad. Then again, W&M (8-3) will have a better resume than UNH (8-3) because of W&M's win over Richmond/JMU and the H2H over UNH. UNH's best chance is obviously to go 9-2 or 10-1, they are in if they do that. But, if they finish at 8-3 they need W&M to lose to both JMU and Richmond which would make that loss to W&M look worse. Umass, Maine, UNH could beat up on each other and if W&M doesn't spring an upset, none of them could be qualified.
I think the agreement here with UNH fans is to get in they need to beat Villanova or UMass.... Obviously the Villanova one would be better since they are in better position then UMass plus the game is at Villanova... UNH going 10-1 isnt out of reach which would make this whole argument irrelevent.

[AZGrizFan]

I think the agreement here with UNH fans is to get in they need to beat Villanova or UMass.... Obviously the Villanova one would be better since they are in better position then UMass plus the game is at Villanova... UNH going 10-1 isnt out of reach which would make this whole argument irrelevent.

UNH going 7-4 isn't out of reach either. In fact, it's a LOT more likely than 10-1. xnodx xnodx

[spdram]

I enjoy reading these treads and the guesses as to what might happen, but there are four more weeks of football to play and anybody that can predict the results correctly please tell me when the stock market is going to turn around.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I wouldn't be so sure. CAA and SoCon are 3 bids for sure. That leaves 4 at large bids left. Cal Poly is 1. Montana or Weber St. is 2. UNI/So Ill/W Ill is 3. Liberty runs the table 4?. I think we can avoid a 4 bid CAA, unless UNH or W&M does well.

You can't be serious. Either UNH or W&M at 8-3 would have a better resume than Liberty with IIRC two non counter wins. Any win over Elon right now isn't going to give them a significant bump. An 8-3 team from any of the "power" conferences with all D-I wins would have a better resume than Liberty.

[slycat]

Jeez UNH talk took over this thread.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Yep that's exactly what could happen to NAU with losses to a 10-2 Weber State , an 11-1 Montana, and Arizona State. Hmmm.... it's assuming that Weber and Montana win out but it COULD happen.

One big difference will be NAU having the win over NH Highlands which won't be seen by the committee.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

UNH currently has 1 quality win (Army) and has 2 potential quality wins left on their schedule (villanova and umass). If they lose to Villanova and Umass and finish 8-3, you think they should get in?

Quality wins would be: Army (FCS so it looks great) and MAYYYYYBE Maine depending now how they finish. IMO, the William and Mary loss will deciede if they get in or not. If W&M can beat either JMU or Richmond then that loss is not bad. Then again, W&M (8-3) will have a better resume than UNH (8-3) because of W&M's win over Richmond/JMU and the H2H over UNH. UNH's best chance is obviously to go 9-2 or 10-1, they are in if they do that. But, if they finish at 8-3 they need W&M to lose to both JMU and Richmond which would make that loss to W&M look worse. Umass, Maine, UNH could beat up on each other and if W&M doesn't spring an upset, none of them could be qualified.

If the CAA remains the number one or two ranked conference in FCS, then that 8-3 record with a win over FCS Army will go a lot farther than you're giving it credit for. Especially now that Army has three FBS wins and an OT loss on the road. If this wasn't a twelve game season, then I'd say it was close to a lock. But with the twelve game season, any team from a power conference with all D-I games and a FBS loss will get significant consideration. An 8-4 App State, Richmond or UMass will be in the serious discussion.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Jeez UNH talk took over this thread.

You expect us not to say anything with all the junk being talked? xrolleyesx

[Maroon&White]

Wouldn't the UMass win over Bryant not count?

[Longhorn]

UNH is in at 9-2. But I don't want to hear their name if they are 8-3.

Guess you better get some ear plugs then. ;)

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I guess no one figures this to be one of those years were the selection committee is desperate for decent 7-win teams?

Nope and IIRC at this time last year there were multiple posts about how many could end up 9-2. The reality of November is that most teams don't reach that mathematically possible record. And yes AZ I acknowledge that UNH is indeed one of them.

But because of the twelve game schedule, I really don't think there will be any shortage of seven D-I wins. Most likely won't be a shortage of eight D-I teams either.

Time to sit back and let things play out on the field.

[LehighFan11]

CAA has 3 top level teams but after that there are about 5 mediocre teams. I'm just saying Umass, UNH, and Maine might do themselves more harm then good by knocking eachother up. Of course it is very likely that JMU loses to W&M, Nova loses to UNH, or Richmond loses to W&M which would create another quality win for UNH or W&M. Wins over Delaware and Umass don't go as far as they normally do. And yes I'll take a 10-1 Liberty team over a 8-3 UNH every day of the week and twice on Saturdays.

[letsgopards04]

Here goes nothing once again...

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

Big Sky
Montana (11-1)
*Weber State (10-2) – #3 Seed

CAA
*James Madison (10-1) – #1 Seed
New Hampshire (9-2)
Richmond (9-3)
Villanova (9-2)

Great West
Cal Poly (8-2)

MEAC
*South Carolina State (10-2)

Missouri Valley
Northern Iowa (9-3)
*Southern Illinois (9-2) – #4 Seed

Ohio Valley
*Tennessee State (10-2)

Patriot
*Lafayette (10-1)

Southern
*Appalachian State (10-2) – #2 Seed
Elon (9-3)
Wofford (9-2)

Southland
*Texas State (9-3)

*Denotes predicted automatic bid recipient.


FIRST ROUND PAIRINGS:

Elon (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Lafayette (10-1)
Tennessee State (10-2) at #4 Southern Illinois (9-2)
Northern Iowa (9-3) at Texas State (9-3)

Cal Poly (8-2) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
New Hampshire (9-2) at Montana (11-1)

Richmond (9-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (9-2) at South Carolina State (10-2)

There is no way that the committee will ever send a CAA team to a PL field.

[WrenFGun]

CAA has 3 top level teams but after that there are about 5 mediocre teams. I'm just saying Umass, UNH, and Maine might do themselves more harm then good by knocking eachother up. Of course it is very likely that JMU loses to W&M, Nova loses to UNH, or Richmond loses to W&M which would create another quality win for UNH or W&M. Wins over Delaware and Umass don't go as far as they normally do. And yes I'll take a 10-1 Liberty team over a 8-3 UNH every day of the week and twice on Saturdays.

Which Liberty win is telling you that that is a good idea? Is it a win that would knock Elon out of the playoffs, hypothetically? Or is it those quality wins over Southern Utah, Coastal Carolina or Youngstown State? Do indulge me, I'll be waiting patiently. It's a good thing all of those wins are better than an FBS win.

As for the UNH fans, when the entire board is bashing your team regularly, it tends to happen. The off-handed slights at UNH occur in almost every thread about the playoffs. People are dying for this team to fail because of them "undeservedly" making the playoffs last year.

[Tribe4SF]

There is no way that the committee will ever send a CAA team to a PL field.

Happened in 2004 with JMU. If you're not paired against a seed, it's simply a matter of the better bid. I also believe Lafayette and Villanova are likely first round opponents, and the Pards will probably bid higher.

[Dane96]

You know, with a loss to Liberty, I think the CAA possibly gets a fifth team in to the harm of Elon. Doest he committee take in a 4 loss Elon or a 2 loss NAU, 3 loss (one to TTECH) UMASS, 3 loss William and Mary, 3 loss Maine?

Any one of those teams depeding on actual finishes, would have an argument over Elon...though Elon's wins are strong.

[bandl]

There is no way that the committee will ever send a CAA team to a PL field.

JMU went to Lehigh in 2004.

[Dane96]

Happened in 2004 with JMU. If you're not paired against a seed, it's simply a matter of the better bid. I also believe Lafayette and Villanova are likely first round opponents, and the Pards will probably bid higher.

And, frankly, a MUCH BETTER TV venue to showcase FCS with the new facilites at Lafayette.

[MaximumBobcat]

The facilities are a non-issue for UNI & TX ST. We were sent there in 2005 playoff, not certain of the year?

Capacity is roughly the same, but I believe TX ST has slightly more seats.

That leaves $.

Sorry, my original post was much like many of my geometry proofs, missing many of the steps before the payoff.

I 100% believe that Texas State would outbid anyone for the playoffs, if it came down to us not being put against a seeded opponent.

Our AD would have his head on a platter, guaranteed, if he didn't get us a home game because he didn't bid enough.

Our donations are up and with our new athletic fee, our athletic department has got a decent amount of cash to bid with. xtwocentsx

[LehighFan11]

Which Liberty win is telling you that that is a good idea? Is it a win that would knock Elon out of the playoffs, hypothetically? Or is it those quality wins over Southern Utah, Coastal Carolina or Youngstown State? Do indulge me, I'll be waiting patiently. It's a good thing all of those wins are better than an FBS win.

As for the UNH fans, when the entire board is bashing your team regularly, it tends to happen. The off-handed slights at UNH occur in almost every thread about the playoffs. People are dying for this team to fail because of them "undeservedly" making the playoffs last year.

It would be the fact that they are 10-1 with a win over a playoff team. Elon might still get if they lose to Liberty.

IT isn't because UNH shouldn't of gotten in last year, its about this year. If they lose to Nova and Umass, where is their quality win in the CAA? You preach that the CAA the 1st or 2nd best conference should get more than 3 teams, but if you can't beat anyone within the CAA why should UNH get in? If UNH losses to Umass and Nova and W&M pulls an upset, you guys will be at home.

[ToTheLeft]

Which Liberty win is telling you that that is a good idea? Is it a win that would knock Elon out of the playoffs, hypothetically? Or is it those quality wins over Southern Utah, Coastal Carolina or Youngstown State? Do indulge me, I'll be waiting patiently. It's a good thing all of those wins are better than an FBS win.

As for the UNH fans, when the entire board is bashing your team regularly, it tends to happen. The off-handed slights at UNH occur in almost every thread about the playoffs. People are dying for this team to fail because of them "undeservedly" making the playoffs last year.

Liberty never played SUU.

And a crappy FBS win isn't something to parade like you conquered the world. CSU almost beat Miami of Ohio, and VMI almost beat Ohio, and Gardner Webb almost beat G-Tech. If you wanna play that game, then the Big South is FBS competitive and our schedule should count for more.

[UNHWildCats]

Liberty never played SUU.

And a crappy FBS win isn't something to parade like you conquered the world. CSU almost beat Miami of Ohio, and VMI almost beat Ohio, and Gardner Webb almost beat G-Tech. If you wanna play that game, then the Big South is FBS competitive and our schedule should count for more.
Doing > Almost

[WrenFGun]

It would be the fact that they are 10-1 with a win over a playoff team. Elon might still get if they lose to Liberty.

IT isn't because UNH shouldn't of gotten in last year, its about this year. If they lose to Nova and Umass, where is their quality win in the CAA? You preach that the CAA the 1st or 2nd best conference should get more than 3 teams, but if you can't beat anyone within the CAA why should UNH get in? If UNH losses to Umass and Nova and W&M pulls an upset, you guys will be at home.

I'd agree, given that scenario, that it is possible that UNH would stay at home at 8-3, though there would have to be some other teams winning games to earn that. Unless Elon beats Appy, they will not be a playoff team with a loss to Liberty. Liberty will simply take Elon's spot in the playoffs. It's just odd that you think it's more likely that W&M pulls an upset than for UNH to get in with a record that is easily attainable.

Yes, if UNH is 8-3, I'll be nervous; are they a lock NOT to make it at 8-3? Absolutely not. Put yourself in the committee's shoes. They thought that a 7-4 team with an FBS win was more than worth inclusion, and if you look at that team, they had a quality win over UD, and perhaps Hofstra. This black and white talk just seems ridiculous given they'd be 8-3.

[WrenFGun]

Liberty never played SUU.

And a crappy FBS win isn't something to parade like you conquered the world. CSU almost beat Miami of Ohio, and VMI almost beat Ohio, and Gardner Webb almost beat G-Tech. If you wanna play that game, then the Big South is FBS competitive and our schedule should count for more.

Go ahead and look at Army...they might finish the season over .500. That's really crappy. Good thing almost is as good as doing, also.

[ToTheLeft]

Then I shall watch UNH fans posts like a hawk to see if anyone says they get points for someone almost beating someone.

Being competitive against someone is worth something. Everyone would agree on that.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Which Liberty win is telling you that that is a good idea? Is it a win that would knock Elon out of the playoffs, hypothetically? Or is it those quality wins over Southern Utah, Coastal Carolina or Youngstown State? Do indulge me, I'll be waiting patiently. It's a good thing all of those wins are better than an FBS win.

As for the UNH fans, when the entire board is bashing your team regularly, it tends to happen. The off-handed slights at UNH occur in almost every thread about the playoffs. People are dying for this team to fail because of them "undeservedly" making the playoffs last year.

No Wren, it must be their wins over North Greenville and Glenville State! Those are so much more impressive than wins at Parsons and West Point and Dartmouth. xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx No Southern Utah this year, maybe you were thinking about Western Carolina.

And with the absolute beat down that our bottom tier Hofstra gave Stony Brook on their field, I can't give them much boost for a 33-0 win at home over Stony.

[MaximumBobcat]

Being competitive against someone is worth something. Everyone would agree on that.

Yeah, it's worth an L in the record books.

[ToTheLeft]

If I had the motivation I would go through all of your posts and see all the times you give credit or props for teams "almost" beating someone.

Don't act like you don't do it.

[UNHWildCats]

Then I shall watch UNH fans posts like a hawk to see if anyone says they get points for someone almost beating someone.

Being competitive against someone is worth something. Everyone would agree on that.
so if a team goes 0-11 and loses the 11 games by a total of say 12 points should they be in the playoffs since they lost each game by no more then 2 points?

[WrenFGun]

If I had the motivation I would go through all of your posts and see all the times you give credit or props for teams "almost" beating someone.

Don't act like you don't do it.

Sure. Just make sure you give credit to URI for "almost" beating W&M. Or for Army "almost" beating Buffalo. Or for that matter, UNH "almost" beating W&M. "Almost" is not pertinent because every team has them.

[LehighFan11]

I'd agree, given that scenario, that it is possible that UNH would stay at home at 8-3, though there would have to be some other teams winning games to earn that. Unless Elon beats Appy, they will not be a playoff team with a loss to Liberty. Liberty will simply take Elon's spot in the playoffs. It's just odd that you think it's more likely that W&M pulls an upset than for UNH to get in with a record that is easily attainable.

Yes, if UNH is 8-3, I'll be nervous; are they a lock NOT to make it at 8-3? Absolutely not. Put yourself in the committee's shoes. They thought that a 7-4 team with an FBS win was more than worth inclusion, and if you look at that team, they had a quality win over UD, and perhaps Hofstra. This black and white talk just seems ridiculous given they'd be 8-3.

I don't think it is more likely, just presenting that scenario. There are alot of deserving teams in the country this year and I don't think it is guaranteed that the CAA is getting 4 teams so UNH might want to avoid being 8-3 come selection sunday.

[WrenFGun]

No Wren, it must be their wins over North Greenville and Glenville State! Those are so much more impressive than wins at Parsons and West Point and Dartmouth. xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx No Southern Utah this year, maybe you were thinking about Western Carolina.

And with the absolute beat down that our bottom tier Hofstra gave Stony Brook on their field, I can't give them much boost for a 33-0 win at home over Stony.

Sure you can...you can say Liberty is almost as good as Hofstra. xlolx

It's kind of fun picking through these obviously incomplete arguments, though.

[ToTheLeft]

so if a team goes 0-11 and loses the 11 games by a total of say 12 points should they be in the playoffs since they lost each game by no more then 2 points?

Whatever. Way to take things out of proportion. I never said almosts make a team deserving, but a team that finishes 0-11 against the best teams in the nation losing by an average of 4 points a game would be a better team than a 3-9 that lost by an average of 50 to DII schools.

[Tribe4SF]

CAA has 3 top level teams but after that there are about 5 mediocre teams. I'm just saying Umass, UNH, and Maine might do themselves more harm then good by knocking eachother up. Of course it is very likely that JMU loses to W&M, Nova loses to UNH, or Richmond loses to W&M which would create another quality win for UNH or W&M. Wins over Delaware and Umass don't go as far as they normally do. And yes I'll take a 10-1 Liberty team over a 8-3 UNH every day of the week and twice on Saturdays.

Patriot League guys have to pump Liberty because it's the best quality OOC win they have. If Liberty wins out they will be 8-1 in the committee's eyes, with a much easier schedule than UNH. If you think a win over Delaware or UMass (are you kidding?...top 20!) doesn't go as far as normal, how about a win over Youngstown State?

As to the "5 mediocre teams" in the CAA...one man's mediocre is another's conference champion.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Liberty never played SUU.

And a crappy FBS win isn't something to parade like you conquered the world. CSU almost beat Miami of Ohio, and VMI almost beat Ohio, and Gardner Webb almost beat G-Tech. If you wanna play that game, then the Big South is FBS competitive and our schedule should count for more.

Nobody from UNH has ever paraded like we conquered the world. All I've seen is rebuttal to the many who downgrade the win. Again, if it was so easy, why haven't there been more FCS wins over "crappy FBS teams"? If they are so crappy, then we (FCS) should be racking up multiple wins each year despite always playing on the road. This is just more UNH backlash that Wren has highlighted.

The Big South is becoming more and more competitive every year, but I think they still have a ways to go before your league schedule will be viewed as the equal of the CAA, SoCon, BSC, MVFC, etc.

[LehighFan11]

Patriot League guys have to pump Liberty because it's the best quality OOC win they have. If Liberty wins out they will be 8-1 in the committee's eyes, with a much easier schedule than UNH. If you think a win over Delaware or UMass (are you kidding?...top 20!) doesn't go as far as normal, how about a win over Youngstown State?

As to the "5 mediocre teams" in the CAA...one man's mediocre is another's conference champion.

Why would I pump Liberty, Lafayette beat them? And obviously I'm NOT a Lafayette supporter.

Yea Maine, UNH, W&M, Umass have to be considered average or mediocre for now. If any of those teams wins some big games down the stretch then they won't be mediocre.

[Tribe4SF]

If I had the motivation I would go through all of your posts and see all the times you give credit or props for teams "almost" beating someone.

Don't act like you don't do it.

It's really just easier to look at who Liberty has played. One opponent with a winning record and you lost to them by 2 TDs at home. Beat Elon and you'll be in the discussion, but the rest of the resume won't change. Just follow the GPI and you'll have a good idea of the chances.

[WrenFGun]

Why would I pump Liberty, Lafayette beat them? And obviously I'm NOT a Lafayette supporter.

Yea Maine, UNH, W&M, Umass have to be considered average or mediocre for now. If any of those teams wins some big games down the stretch then they won't be mediocre.

I'd say that makes about 97% of the country mediocre. Would you agree?

[LehighFan11]

I'd say that makes about 97% of the country mediocre. Would you agree?
Well alot of the country is below mediocre, that is why they only take 16 teams for the playoffs.

[Tribe4SF]

Why would I pump Liberty, Lafayette beat them? And obviously I'm NOT a Lafayette supporter.

Yea Maine, UNH, W&M, Umass have to be considered average or mediocre for now. If any of those teams wins some big games down the stretch then they won't be mediocre.

"Average or mediocre" compared to what? Three are ranked, and all four are in the top 20 of the GPI. The only comparison that would justify a "mediocre" label would be to the current top 3 in the CAA.

[WrenFGun]

"Average or mediocre" compared to what? Three are ranked, and all four are in the top 20 of the GPI. The only comparison that would justify a "mediocre" label would be to the current top 3 in the CAA.

Agreed. Is LaFayette mediocre, too, considering they are ranked lower in every measurable category? Is Elon mediocre? I'm just looking for some clarification.

[BDKJMU]

Even if NAU loses to UM next week, I could still see them getting into the playoffs if they run the table the rest of the way in the Big Sky. They would have a record of 8-3 with 7 D-1AA wins with losses to two top ten teams in Weber and Montana. A win next week would guarantee them a spot in the playoffs and probably ensure that three teams from the Big Sky would get in.

No one will get an at large with only 7 Div I wins. Not when the majority of playoff potential teams scheduled 12 games, and a large # of them 12 Div I games. It will take 8 Div I games to get an at-large, be that at 8-3 or 9-3, and no more than 3 losses.

Any AD who scheduled a playoff potential team for only 11 games and only 10 Div I is an idiot.

[Poly Pigskin]

No one will get an at large with only 7 Div I wins. Not when the majority of playoff potential teams scheduled 12 games, and a large # of them 12 Div I games. It will take 8 Div I games to get an at-large, be that at 8-3 or 9-3, and no more than 3 losses.

Any AD who scheduled a playoff potential team for only 11 games and only 10 Div I is an idiot.

If Cal Poly wins everything before the Wisconsin game, they will get an at large with only 7 DI wins. We were scheduled for 11 games (10 DI). I guess our AD is an idiot.

[BDKJMU]

Here goes nothing once again...

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

Big Sky
Montana (11-1)
*Weber State (10-2) – #3 Seed

CAA
*James Madison (10-1) – #1 Seed
New Hampshire (9-2)
Richmond (9-3)
Villanova (9-2)

Great West
Cal Poly (8-2)

MEAC
*South Carolina State (10-2)

Missouri Valley
Northern Iowa (9-3)
*Southern Illinois (9-2) – #4 Seed

Ohio Valley
*Tennessee State (10-2)

Patriot
*Lafayette (10-1)

Southern
*Appalachian State (10-2) – #2 Seed
Elon (9-3)
Wofford (9-2)

Southland
*Texas State (9-3)

*Denotes predicted automatic bid recipient.


FIRST ROUND PAIRINGS:

Elon (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

Tennessee State (10-2) at #4 Southern Illinois (9-2)
Northern Iowa (9-3) at Texas State (9-3)

Cal Poly (8-2) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
New Hampshire (9-2) at Montana (11-1)

Richmond (9-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (9-2) at South Carolina State (10-2)

I agree with the pairings except I think UNH (who I agree won't get a home game as a non seed due to their facilities) would be at Tx State and UNI would be at Monana. Everything else matches up as best it can geographically with no 1st round re-matches. As far as which team hosts of the 4 games with non seeded teams thats hard to tell.

[slycat]

I agree with the pairings except I think UNH (who I agree won't get a home game as a non seed due to their facilities) would be at Tx State and UNI would be at Monana. Everything else matches up as best it can geographically with no 1st round re-matches. As far as which team hosts of the 4 games with non seeded teams thats hard to tell.

I was thinking the same thing.

[BDKJMU]

If a 9-3 CAA team misses the playoffs with losses to a Big 10 team and two top 5 FCS teams, the committee will have some serious, serious explaining to do.



Yep that's exactly what could happen to NAU with losses to a 10-2 Weber State , an 11-1 Montana, and Arizona State. Hmmm.... it's assuming that Weber and Montana win out but it COULD happen.

Wrong. Maine has 12 Div I games, and under that scenario would have 9 Div I wins. NAU has 10 Div 1 games, and under that scenario would have only 7 Div I wins. The committee will have zero explaining to do not taking a 8-3 teams with only 7 Div I wins.

[mainejeff]

Wrong. Maine has 12 Div I games, and under that scenario would have 9 Div I wins. NAU has 10 Div 1 games, and under that scenario would have only 7 Div I wins. The committee will have zero explaining to do not taking a 8-3 teams with only 7 Div I wins.

Exactly.

[BDKJMU]

No one will get an at large with only 7 Div I wins. Not when the majority of playoff potential teams scheduled 12 games, and a large # of them 12 Div I games. It will take 8 Div I games to get an at-large, be that at 8-3 or 9-3, and no more than 3 losses.

Any AD who scheduled a playoff potential team for only 11 games and only 10 Div I is an idiot.[/QUOTE]


If Cal Poly wins everything before the Wisconsin game, they will get an at large with only 7 DI wins. We were scheduled for 11 games (10 DI). I guess our AD is an idiot.

Like I said, "Any AD who scheduled a playoff potential team for only 11 games and only 10 Div I is an idiot". So yes, that would make your AD an idiot. Its not his fault that the @ McNeese game got cancelled due to Hurricane Ike, but he should have had 11 Div I games scheduled in the 1st place. I don't see a Div II on the Cal Poly Schedule, but if one of them is, he should have had a 12th game scheduled to give 11 Div I games.

A loss to Wisconsin would leave Cal Poly 8-2, as I see it 8 Div I wins. I don't see a Div II on their schedule?
@ San Diego State I-A
Montana I-AA
@ Northwestern State I-AA
South Dakota I-AA
@ South Dakota State I-AA
Southern Utah I-AA
Idaho State I-AA
North Carolina Central I-AA
UC Davis I-AA
@ Wisconsin I-A

I realize Cal Poly has only 10 games due to their game @ McNeese being cancelled because of Hurricane Ike which isn't the AD's fault. They are the only playoff potential team with 10 games and they are I believe the only playoff potential team with 2 I-A games.

[UNHWildCats]

That would leave Cal Poly 8-2, 8 Div I wins. I don't see a Div II on their schedule.
@ San Diego State I-A
Montana I-AA
@ Northwestern State I-AA
South Dakota I-AA
@ South Dakota State I-AA
Southern Utah I-AA
Idaho State I-AA
North Carolina Central I-AA
UC Davis I-AA
@ Wisconsin I-A

I realize Cal Poly has only 10 games due to their game @ McNeese being cancelled because of Hurricane Ike which isn't the AD's fault. They are the only playoff potential team with 10 games and they are I believe the only playoff potential team with 2 I-A games.[/quote]

South Dakota isnt a Div I win in their first year of transition

[SuperJon]

Like I said in the other thread, until Liberty beats Elon, the words Liberty and playoffs should not be in the same sentence. If we beat Elon, then we can talk. We gave up our chance to have everything in our own hands.

[UNHWildCats]

No one will get an at large with only 7 Div I wins. Not when the majority of playoff potential teams scheduled 12 games, and a large # of them 12 Div I games. It will take 8 Div I games to get an at-large, be that at 8-3 or 9-3, and no more than 3 losses.

Any AD who scheduled a playoff potential team for only 11 games and only 10 Div I is an idiot.



That would leave Cal Poly 8-2, 8 Div I wins. I don't see a Div II on their schedule.
@ San Diego State I-A
Montana I-AA
@ Northwestern State I-AA
South Dakota I-AA
@ South Dakota State I-AA
Southern Utah I-AA
Idaho State I-AA
North Carolina Central I-AA
UC Davis I-AA
@ Wisconsin I-A

I realize Cal Poly has only 10 games due to their game @ McNeese being cancelled because of Hurricane Ike which isn't the AD's fault. They are the only playoff potential team with 10 games and they are I believe the only playoff potential team with 2 I-A games.


South Dakota isnt a Div I win in their first year of transition, thats why the great west teams werent playing both Dakotas this year.

[BDKJMU]

They're listed as Div I here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/standings?groupId=81
and here:
http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php?blog=5&disp=teams

Plus JMU played NCCU, which I though were in their 1st year moving up from Div II to I-AA. They count as a Div I on JMU's schedule. (I see they are also on Cal Poly's schedule).

[URMite]

They're listed as Div I here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/standings?groupId=81
and here:
http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php?blog=5&disp=teams

Plus JMU played NCCU, which I though were in their 1st year moving up from Div II to I-AA. They count as a Div I on JMU's schedule. (I see they are also on Cal Poly's schedule).

On another thread, (or two), I mentioned that I noticed North Dakota & South Dakota as Div II (so non-counter) on NCAA.org while Presbyterian, NC Central, Winston-Salem, & Central Arkansas are listed as Div I (so a counter)

The interesting one is Bryant who is also listed as a Div I (counter) even though I though they were 1st yr transition like the Dakotas.

[Poly Pigskin]

No one will get an at large with only 7 Div I wins. Not when the majority of playoff potential teams scheduled 12 games, and a large # of them 12 Div I games. It will take 8 Div I games to get an at-large, be that at 8-3 or 9-3, and no more than 3 losses.



Like I said, "Any AD who scheduled a playoff potential team for only 11 games and only 10 Div I is an idiot". So yes, that would make your AD an idiot. Its not his fault that the @ McNeese game got cancelled due to Hurricane Ike, but he should have had 11 Div I games scheduled in the 1st place. I don't see a Div II on the Cal Poly Schedule, but if one of them is, he should have had a 12th game scheduled to give 11 Div I games.

A loss to Wisconsin would leave Cal Poly 8-2, as I see it 8 Div I wins. I don't see a Div II on their schedule?
@ San Diego State I-A
Montana I-AA
@ Northwestern State I-AA
South Dakota I-AA
@ South Dakota State I-AA
Southern Utah I-AA
Idaho State I-AA
North Carolina Central I-AA
UC Davis I-AA
@ Wisconsin I-A

I realize Cal Poly has only 10 games due to their game @ McNeese being cancelled because of Hurricane Ike which isn't the AD's fault. They are the only playoff potential team with 10 games and they are I believe the only playoff potential team with 2 I-A games.

Our AD (who is female, by the way), called every FCS team that would have fit into our schedule, and nothing got worked out, so instead we scheduled Wisconsin. She called up everyone with a common bye date and 11 games after McNeese was canceled, still no takers. If you look at the hodge podge that is our schedule, it's more indicative of the difficulty of putting together a schedule for western teams, and probably has little to do with our AD being an idiot.

USD is in the first year of transition and does not count, so if we win all the games we're supposed to, then we will be in with 7 DI wins.

[BDKJMU]

Our AD (who is female, by the way), called every FCS team that would have fit into our schedule, and nothing got worked out, so instead we scheduled Wisconsin. She called up everyone with a common bye date and 11 games after McNeese was canceled, still no takers. If you look at the hodge podge that is our schedule, it's more indicative of the difficulty of putting together a schedule for western teams, and probably has little to do with our AD being an idiot.

USD is in the first year of transition and does not count, so if we win all the games we're supposed to, then we will be in with 7 DI wins.

Ok, so USD doesn't count. Cal Poly's schedule with the McNeese game being cancelled is an anolamy. Leaves only 10 games, with 2 I-As and a Div II. If Cal Poly finishes 8-2 with only 7 Div I wins but a win against a I-A and the only other loss being a 2 pointer to Montana, of course Cal Poly is a lock.

Cal Poly is lucky that the game @ McNeese was cancelled. If it wasn't and McNeese won that game, that would have likely left Cal Poly finishing at 8-3 and maybe on the fence come selection time, but I think they still would have gotten in, as the 2 I-A games would sort of cancel out the DII. Most of the other teams from the AQ conferences outside of the Patriot with 11 game schedules I have seen have a I-A and no Div II, with some a I-A and a Div II. The only I have seen with 2 I-As are the Northeastern and the Citadel, both with 12 game schedules and neither of whom are in the playoff discussion.

[smcwildcat]

i know howd that happen?..

[uofmman1122]

Cal Poly is lucky that the game @ McNeese was cancelled. If it wasn't and McNeese won that game, that would have likely left Cal Poly finishing at 8-3 and maybe on the fence come selection time, but I think they still would have gotten in, as the 2 I-A games would sort of cancel out the DII. Most of the other teams from the AQ conferences outside of the Patriot with 11 game schedules I have seen have a I-A and no Div II, with some a I-A and a Div II. The only I have seen with 2 I-As are the Northeastern and the Citadel, both with 12 game schedules and neither of whom are in the playoff discussion.I don't think, given the play of both teams over the past few weeks, that Cal Poly should feel "lucky" about not playing McNeese. Chances are they would have still beaten them, anyways. xcoffeex

[GolfingGriz]

Ok, so USD doesn't count. Cal Poly's schedule with the McNeese game being cancelled is an anolamy. Leaves only 10 games, with 2 I-As and a Div II. If Cal Poly finishes 8-2 with only 7 Div I wins but a win against a I-A and the only other loss being a 2 pointer to Montana, of course Cal Poly is a lock.

Cal Poly is lucky that the game @ McNeese was cancelled. If it wasn't and McNeese won that game, that would have likely left Cal Poly finishing at 8-3 and maybe on the fence come selection time, but I think they still would have gotten in, as the 2 I-A games would sort of cancel out the DII. Most of the other teams from the AQ conferences outside of the Patriot with 11 game schedules I have seen have a I-A and no Div II, with some a I-A and a Div II. The only I have seen with 2 I-As are the Northeastern and the Citadel, both with 12 game schedules and neither of whom are in the playoff discussion.

They both played SDSU with McNeese barely beating them at home(i think) and Cal Poly beating them by two scores on the road. I'm pretty sure that Cal Poly could take care of McNeese.

[leatherneck177]

Its a 28 year old Hong Kong actor/singer named Edison Chen

what the heck?

[R.A.]

There is no way that the committee will ever send a CAA team to a PL field.


Why?? The committee sent a CAA to a MEAC field... New Hampshire @ Hampton in 2006.

[DSUrocks07]

Why?? The committee sent a CAA to a MEAC field... New Hampshire @ Hampton in 2006.

Especially a team like UNH...they don't draw well...and NCAA playoff games are driven by the most important aspect in all of college football...
































....ticket sales xnonono2x


Don't be surprised that if FAMU by some act of God makes the playoff field at 10-2 gets sent on the road against a 7-4 team.

[art vandelay]

Here goes nothing once again...

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

Big Sky
Montana (11-1)
*Weber State (10-2) – #3 Seed

CAA
*James Madison (10-1) – #1 Seed
New Hampshire (9-2)
Richmond (9-3)
Villanova (9-2)

Great West
Cal Poly (8-2)

MEAC
*South Carolina State (10-2)

Missouri Valley
Northern Iowa (9-3)
*Southern Illinois (9-2) – #4 Seed

Ohio Valley
*Tennessee State (10-2)

Patriot
*Lafayette (10-1)

Southern
*Appalachian State (10-2) – #2 Seed
Elon (9-3)
Wofford (9-2)

Southland
*Texas State (9-3)

*Denotes predicted automatic bid recipient.


FIRST ROUND PAIRINGS:

Elon (9-3) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

Tennessee State (10-2) at #4 Southern Illinois (9-2)
Northern Iowa (9-3) at Texas State (9-3)

Cal Poly (8-2) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
New Hampshire (9-2) at Montana (11-1)

Richmond (9-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (9-2) at South Carolina State (10-2)

JMU as a #1 seed would play the worst posible team at home in the first round. I doubt that would mean Elon. most likely it would be like Lafayette or Cal Poly. not to say either team is bad they mite just be seen as such by the powers that be

[JayJ79]

JMU as a #1 seed would play the worst posible team at home in the first round. I doubt that would mean Elon. most likely it would be like Lafayette or Cal Poly. not to say either team is bad they mite just be seen as such by the powers that be

Not necessarily. Last year, UNI played UNH in the first round.
While UNH may have been the "last team in", I REALLY don't think they were the "worst possible team", given some of the autobids.

[R.A.]

JMU as a #1 seed would play the worst posible team at home in the first round.

FAMU @ JMU

[art vandelay]

agreed but they were the lowest rank. i dont think Elonwill be though i dont know much about them

[art vandelay]

who is FAMU

[DSUrocks07]

who is FAMU

xeekx xeekx xeekx

xlolx xlolx xlolx

Big Dawg, tell it like it is!!!

[R.A.]

who is FAMU

www.famu.edu

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_Agricultural_and_Mechanical_University

[art vandelay]

oh, sorry, are they bad?

[R.A.]

oh, sorry, are they bad?


They're 6-2 on the season.

[WrenFGun]

Some people are proposing that FAMU is a viable candidate as an at-large over a number of other, more deserving major-conference teams. Hence R.A's proposal.

[art vandelay]

oh well then sure then FAMU @ JMU first round

[art vandelay]

their website is not very user friendly

[DSUrocks07]

Some people are proposing that FAMU is a viable candidate as an at-large over a number of other, more deserving major-conference teams. Hence R.A's proposal.

Because the playoffs are for "major conference" teams only..xrolleyesx

I heard that they do something like that in the "other Division"

[DSUrocks07]

oh well then sure then FAMU @ JMU first round

I'd like DSU @ JMU better xwhistlex

I'll get back to you next sunday

[UNHWildCats]

what the heck?
what?

[DSUrocks07]

what?

when?

[UNHWildCats]

when?
why

[DSUrocks07]

who!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvd3kaupZ60

[UNHWildCats]

what?
A hot asian guy

when?
anytime

why
to have "fun"

who!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvd3kaupZ60
Edison Chen

No one asked where so....
my bed


xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Dukie95]

JMU as a #1 seed would play the worst posible team at home in the first round.

False.

There are 4 seeded teams, the remaining 12 are all equal in the eyes of the committee. Pairings are all about geography to keep down travel costs.

If JMU is the #1 seed, JMU will be paired with the closest non-seeded, non-CAA team in the field. Bank on it.

Believe me on this...JMU fans know these pairing/home game rules better than anyone.

[UNHWildCats]

False.

There are 4 seeded teams, the remaining 12 are all equal in the eyes of the committee. Pairings are all about geography to keep down travel costs.

If JMU is the #1 seed, JMU will be paired with the closest non-seeded, non-CAA team in the field. Bank on it.

Believe me on this...JMU fans know these pairing/home game rules better than anyone.
So why didnt Eastern Illinois go to Northern Iowa last year?

[UNHWildCats]

Or Massachusetts? Fordham? Eastern kentucky? they are all closer to UNI then UNH was.

[Dukie95]

Well, once you start adding schools west of the Mississippi, someone's going to have to fly, and you guys were probably an outlier in the NE with no logical geographic pairing.

Also, keep in mind the seeded teams are paired first. I don't recall if UMass was a seed last year, but that could be why they got Fordham.

Official rule:


All pairings will be made by the Division I football championship committee. The
following principles are applied when pairing teams:
1. The teams awarded the top four seeds are placed in the appropriate positions in the
bracket (Nos. 1 and 4 in the upper half, and Nos. 2 and 3 in the lower half), and will
be paired with teams that are in closest geographic proximity;
2. The remaining teams will be paired according to geographic proximity and placed in
the bracket according to geographic proximity of the four pairings previously placed
in the bracket.
3. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games;
4. Once the first-round pairings have been determined, there will be no adjustments to
the bracket.


The point is...the pairings have NOTHING to do with how teams are ranked beyond the top four.

[matfu]

I think if Elon and wofford finish with 9 wins they will get in, App could probably get in at 8. Furman and GSU are the only ones still eligible outside of those three. If Furman loses to samford that puts them in a must win situation against GSU and Wofford. I just don't know if the vermine can do that.

Maybe you don't follow the playoffs year after year etc. Furman is in a must-win situation already. we are 6-3 and to get in the playoffs we have to beat samford, ga southern and wofford to get in at 9-3. it would help for wofford to have beaten app state and for wofford to be #2 in the polls at the time. otherwise, it is possible furman could go 9-3 and not get in. if elon goes 9-3 like furman, history says furman would get in over elon having won their last 3 (vs. elon losing 2 of last 4). a furman team at 9-3, just having beaten a #2 wofford team, would also trump liberty for sure even if liberty beat elon.

[MaximumBobcat]

Well, once you start adding schools west of the Mississippi, someone's going to have to fly, and you guys were probably an outlier in the NE with no logical geographic pairing.

Also, keep in mind the seeded teams are paired first. I don't recall if UMass was a seed last year, but that could be why they got Fordham.

Official rule:


The point is...the pairings have NOTHING to do with how teams are ranked beyond the top four.

Interesting information...thanks! xthumbsupx

[UNI Pike]

So why didnt Eastern Illinois go to Northern Iowa last year?


Or Massachusetts? Fordham? Eastern kentucky? they are all closer to UNI then UNH was.

We asked the same thing last year - Probably because Southern ILL was a short ambulance ride home for EIU.

[carney2]

Also, who gets a home game has nothing to do with win-loss records. The top 4 seeds get a home game. After that, you have to want it. Who wouldn't want it, you say. Well, consider.

If you want a home game, you have to submit a "bid" to the NCAA.

You have to guarantee a $$ cut to the NCAA. A few years ago it was $30,000 plus [whatever] based on the total gross. It's probably more now. (If the ticket price is, let's say $20.00, that means that at least the 1st 1,500 or so tickets sold go to the NCAA. If you can't even put 10,000 in the stands [see below], that's significant.)

You had better be able to put some fannies in the seats. The NCAA isn't stupid. They accept bids from the schools that will ring the cash register the loudest. Ever notice that, if they're in the playoffs, Montana and Delaware, two schools with large stadiums and a fan base that will be there at 3:00 AM in a blizzard if necessary, ALWAYS get home first round games? There's no pretense of fairness here.

Easy. It's a playoff game, sez you. Not so fast. It's Thanksgiving weekend. Students are on break and many of your regulars have family and other commitments.

I think it's fair to say that some schools may not really want a home game. What if your stadium seats 10,000 or less, and you really don't fill it all that often, and students, who are a fair portion of a normal crowd, get in free or at a drastically reduced price? There is a lot to consider before submitting that bid.

[JayJ79]

and students, who are a fair portion of a normal crowd, get in free or at a drastically reduced price? There is a lot to consider before submitting that bid.

Do most schools let students in free for playoff games?
I know most have "free" student admission for regular season events, since most schools have an "activities fee" included in the tuition bill of all students. But I doubt that covers playoff games.

At least it doesn't at UNI.

[Tribe4SF]

Do most schools let students in free for playoff games?
I know most have "free" student admission for regular season events, since most schools have an "activities fee" included in the tuition bill of all students. But I doubt that covers playoff games.

At least it doesn't at UNI.


There are no free tickets to a playoff game. Student tickets are frequently discounted, and booster organizations sometimes buy blocks of them for students.

[putter]

Not necessarily. Last year, UNI played UNH in the first round.
While UNH may have been the "last team in", I REALLY don't think they were the "worst possible team", given some of the autobids.

You are correct. After watching UD/DSU's made for TV movie and UMass's game, I can honestly tell you, UNH was not even close to being the worst possible team.

[art vandelay]

You are correct. After watching UD/DSU's made for TV movie and UMass's game, I can honestly tell you, UNH was not even close to being the worst possible team.

trust me as a UNH former player and fan I am not saying that they the worst team they were just the percieved lowest rank going in at 16. if i remember correctly.

[art vandelay]

one more thing on the whole UNH getting in at 8-3. if they did go 8-3 and won the CAA north wouldnt that put them in. im really not sure about this so someone let me know. I would think if you won the north division then you would basicly have an auto bid do correct me please.

[DB_Atlantic10]

Huh? No way Jose. An 8-3 UNH with a FBS win is a lock. Take it to the bank. Seeesh. UR Homer Glasses. xnodx
I agree, any team from the CAA or SoCon with 8 wins this year will get in....even if it's 6 teams....but there are still a lot of games to be played....

[mcveyrl]

one more thing on the whole UNH getting in at 8-3. if they did go 8-3 and won the CAA north wouldnt that put them in. im really not sure about this so someone let me know. I would think if you won the north division then you would basicly have an auto bid do correct me please.

The CAA North winner doesn't have a guarantee per se, but I am not sure when the last time was that a CAA division winner didn't make the playoffs.

EDIT: Since 2004 (when the current divisions started) no division winner has been left out of the playoffs. BUT, no division winner had more than 2 conference losses, so if you win the division with 3 conference losses, I think all bets are off.

[Houndawg]

So why didnt Eastern Illinois go to Northern Iowa last year?

SIU was closer.

[darell1976]

We are 5-2 can we be in the playoffs...please???;)

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

So why didnt Eastern Illinois go to Northern Iowa last year?


SIU was closer.

That's true, but if the process is supposed to be start with the #1 seed and locate the closest possible team, move on to the #2 seed and find the closest team to them, etc., then EIU should have gone to UNI.

And FTR, UMass was not a seed last year.

[elon77]

Maybe you don't follow the playoffs year after year etc. Furman is in a must-win situation already. we are 6-3 and to get in the playoffs we have to beat samford, ga southern and wofford to get in at 9-3. it would help for wofford to have beaten app state and for wofford to be #2 in the polls at the time. otherwise, it is possible furman could go 9-3 and not get in. if elon goes 9-3 like furman, history says furman would get in over elon having won their last 3 (vs. elon losing 2 of last 4). a furman team at 9-3, just having beaten a #2 wofford team, would also trump liberty for sure even if liberty beat elon.

But Elon beating Furman 31-10, wouldn't that hold some weight? xconfusedx

[Eight Legger]

I agree, any team from the CAA or SoCon with 8 wins this year will get in....even if it's 6 teams....but there are still a lot of games to be played....

I would love to think that you are right, but I just don't see it. I think you could have 9 or 10 teams with 8 wins in those two leagues, so obviously they all can't make the playoffs.

[WileECoyote06]

Because the playoffs are for "major conference" teams only..xrolleyesx

I heard that they do something like that in the "other Division"

lol @ 'major' conference in the 'minor' division.

Just say stronger conference. That can be proven statistically.

[Seven Would Be Nice]

I don't feel like reading 18 pages of this.. but how does having 11 games vs 12 effect bids? How does the 7-4 vs 7-5 vs 8-4 work? The Socon could still end up without a 9 win team, but that's just beating ourselves up again. Or we could have 3 of them, and a few 7-4 teams as well.

[mcveyrl]

I don't feel like reading 18 pages of this.. but how does having 11 games vs 12 effect bids? How does the 7-4 vs 7-5 vs 8-4 work? The Socon could still end up without a 9 win team, but that's just beating ourselves up again. Or we could have 3 of them, and a few 7-4 teams as well.

Somebody (I think Ur2K) did a breakdown last week about 3 loss and 4 loss teams. It definitely looked like the key was going to be to have 3 losses, becuase even among the 12-game teams, there were a LOT of 9-3 teams and the 8-3 teams were pretty good too.

[Seven Would Be Nice]

Somebody (I think Ur2K) did a breakdown last week about 3 loss and 4 loss teams. It definitely looked like the key was going to be to have 3 losses, becuase even among the 12-game teams, there were a LOT of 9-3 teams and the 8-3 teams were pretty good too.

So they will go by losses rather than wins? So a 9-3 team has as good of a shot as a 8-3 team, and the 8-4 teams will be on the outside looking in with the 7-4 teams?

[mcveyrl]

So they will go by losses rather than wins? So a 9-3 team has as good of a shot as a 8-3 team, and the 8-4 teams will be on the outside looking in with the 7-4 teams?

I'm not sure exactly how the committee would look at it, but based on what he posted the 8-3 teams looked a lot better than the 8-4 teams.

I don't have time to find the thread, but it seemed pretty compelling to me.

[BDKJMU]

I agree, any team from the CAA or SoCon with 8 wins this year will get in....even if it's 6 teams....but there are still a lot of games to be played....

Not the case. Any CAA or So-Con team 8-3 will get in. But any with 4 losses might not get in, as there are only 8 at large slots to go around, and there's going to be too many 8 Div I win teams from the Big 4 (CAA, So-Con, MVC, Big Sky) and 9 win teams from the other 4 AQ conferences to say that every 8 win CAA/So-Con with 8 wins is a shoe in.

If UMass is 8-4 they would only have 7 Div I wins if Bryant is not counted as Div I. Plus and 8-4 UR would get in ahead of an 8-4 UMass based on head to head. But UR isn't a shoe in at 8-4.

Elon at 8-4 wouldn't get in, as they didn't play a I-A.

[URMite]

My best guess on the committee's thinking is this:

Do they have >6 Div I wins?

Then do they have <4 losses?

Then quality of the wins (vs <3 loss teams, maybe 4)

Finally quality of the losses


Where it could get interesting is a 9-3 with 2 win over <5 loss teams and an 8-3 with 3 wins over <5 loss teams. Does the extra win help or the extra good win?

[URMite]

Not the case. Any CAA or So-Con team 8-3 will get in. But any with 4 losses might not get in, as there are only 8 at large slots to go around, and there's going to be too many 8 Div I win teams from the Big 4 (CAA, So-Con, MVC, Big Sky) and 9 win teams from the other 4 AQ conferences to say that every 8 win CAA/So-Con with 8 wins is a shoe in.

If UMass is 8-4 they would only have 7 Div I wins if Bryant is not counted as Div I. Plus and 8-4 UR would get in ahead of an 8-4 UMass based on head to head. But UR isn't a shoe in at 8-4.

Elon at 8-4 wouldn't get in, as they didn't play a I-A.

BTW I think it is still theoretically possible for 6 CAA (but only if you lose to W&M) and 4 Socon teams to have <4 losses.

[rcny46]

Not the case. Any CAA or So-Con team 8-3 will get in. But any with 4 losses might not get in, as there are only 8 at large slots to go around, and there's going to be too many 8 Div I win teams from the Big 4 (CAA, So-Con, MVC, Big Sky) and 9 win teams from the other 4 AQ conferences to say that every 8 win CAA/So-Con with 8 wins is a shoe in.

If UMass is 8-4 they would only have 7 Div I wins if Bryant is not counted as Div I. Plus and 8-4 UR would get in ahead of an 8-4 UMass based on head to head. But UR isn't a shoe in at 8-4.

Elon at 8-4 wouldn't get in, as they didn't play a I-A.


I just can't believe that every 8-3 team,at least as far as the CAA is concerned,would make the field of 16.I also think 6 teams from one conference would never make that list.

[malibudude]

I just can't believe that every 8-3 team,at least as far as the CAA is concerned,would make the field of 16.I also think 6 teams from one conference would never make that list.


Based on seats available, as it stands now, the CAA will be "limited" to 3 bids.

[WrenFGun]

Based on seats available, as it stands now, the CAA will be "limited" to 3 bids.

I project the CAA having four spots, though an upset by Furman or 3 bids from the MVFC would reduce that number. With that said, two more losses by Elon or a loss from Cal Poly and the CAA could stare at 5 bids.

[URMite]

I think when it comes to At-large from (CAA, Socon, MVC, Big Sky) it depends on who has both >7 Div I wins, and <4 losses and how many bids are available.

[whoanellie]

Not the case. Any CAA or So-Con team 8-3 will get in. But any with 4 losses might not get in, as there are only 8 at large slots to go around, and there's going to be too many 8 Div I win teams from the Big 4 (CAA, So-Con, MVC, Big Sky) and 9 win teams from the other 4 AQ conferences to say that every 8 win CAA/So-Con with 8 wins is a shoe in.

If UMass is 8-4 they would only have 7 Div I wins if Bryant is not counted as Div I. Plus and 8-4 UR would get in ahead of an 8-4 UMass based on head to head. But UR isn't a shoe in at 8-4.

Elon at 8-4 wouldn't get in, as they didn't play a I-A.

and ah you lost to Duke? whoopie do. really your a really good program.

don't bother responding

[URMite]

and ah you lost to Duke? whoopie do. really your a really good program.

don't bother responding

I think his point was when it comes down to splitting hairs, the committee will discount both non-div I wins and to a lesser extent FBS losses.

[mcveyrl]

and ah you lost to Duke? whoopie do. really your a really good program.

don't bother responding


I think his point was when it comes down to splitting hairs, the committee will discount both non-div I wins and to a lesser extent FBS losses.


Yea, nice over-reaction.

And seriously, the whole Duke argument went out the window a LONG time ago. They're 4-3 and 27th in the Sagarin (not that it's a good indicator of actual quality).

It will be more of a case of getting awarded for an FBS win (UNH) than getting dinged for an FBS loss.

[URMite]

Yea, nice over-reaction.

And seriously, the whole Duke argument went out the window a LONG time ago. They're 4-3 and 27th in the Sagarin (not that it's a good indicator of actual quality).

It will be more of a case of getting awarded for an FBS win (UNH) than getting dinged for an FBS loss.

I agree this is not the same Duke. I'm just glad people stopped dinging us for #22 sagarin, 1 win from bowl eligibility UVA.

...and we get to try Duke next year.

[mcveyrl]

I agree this is not the same Duke. I'm just glad people stopped dinging us for #22 sagarin, 1 win from bowl eligibility UVA.

...and we get to try Duke next year.

I think Duke next year is gonna be scary. Cutcliffe will have a whole year with them.

[URMite]

I think Duke next year is gonna be scary. Cutcliffe will have a whole year with them.

Hey we beat them in 06 how much difference can 3 years make? xrolleyesx

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

You'd be surprised how much of a difference 1 year makes. He conditioned the hell out of those kids and it has paid off big time. They have a very strong D line, BY FAR the best JMU has faced this year, and we've faced a couple good ones in Villanova and Richmond.

Duke is turning the corner in their program. They are losing a couple of NFL bound players, including a possible first/second round draft pick in DT Oghobaase and WR Eron Riley. QB Thaddeus Lewis is a solid SR leader, although their QB recruits I'm sure are golden considering Coach Cutcliffe is the Manning Machine.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

You'd be surprised how much of a difference 1 year makes. He conditioned the hell out of those kids and it has paid off big time. They have a very strong D line, BY FAR the best JMU has faced this year, and we've faced a couple good ones in Villanova and Richmond.

Duke is turning the corner in their program. They are losing a couple of NFL bound players, including a possible first/second round draft pick in DT Oghobaase and WR Eron Riley. QB Thaddeus Lewis is a solid SR leader, although their QB recruits I'm sure are golden considering Coach Cutcliffe is the Manning Machine.

So how do you think you would do if you played Duke now?