catbob
November 8th, 2005, 05:35 PM
Well, another 3 for 4 outing. But I damn near predicted the score for the MSU/Sac game, guessing 34-17 and turning out to be 37-16.
That brings my season total to 77.42%, 24 for 31.
Teams still in contention for the coveted autobid:
UM 4-1 (@Sac @MSU) - Winning out = winning conference outright
MSU 4-1 (@EWU UM) - Same as UM
EWU 4-2 (MSU UC Davis) - Needs to beat MSU and have the Griz lose to someone
WSU 4-2 (@PSU @SUU) - Needs everyone to lose
PSU 3-3 (WSU) - Eliminated
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona
- NAU was blanked by UM last week at home, failing to score any points, and the second time in 3 weeks they have been shut out. The game was still within reach at the start of the 4th, with the Griz leading just 10-0. But special teams and defensive scores would propel the Griz to victory despite only scoring 6 (9 if you count the drive that went for negative yards) offensive points. Despite holding Berquist to just 80 passing yards, and only giving up 175 on the ground (only?), the NAU offense could just not get it done. Murietta continues to show why his freshman season was a fluke, throwing for 184 yards on 17/37 and 3 INTs, against a suspect Griz secondary. ISU won a THRILLER at home vs PSU. They contained the ever-dangerous Joe Rubin, allowing just 113 yards on 34 carries. Smith found sucess through the air for the Viks, but ultimately a last second 54 yard FG would win this one for the Bengals. This game matches up well for the run-happy Bengals. The NAU run defense showed signs of life against UM, but will have a harder task containing the duo of Cornist and Barnett. Hagler didn't even throw an INT for the Bengals, only the second time that has happened this year. NAU's defense is going to have to play as well as they did vs UM, and their offense needs to find anything that works. Murietta has been lackluster and Sanchez hasn't had any blocking, due to the many injuries on the OL for NAU. Kory Mahr is turning into a prime-time receiver for NAU, and Murietta can hit him if he has time in the pocket. Murietta made a couple bone-headed plays last week that may have cost NAU the game, but made a perfect strike on the first play of the game that would have been a TD had it not gone right through the hands of his receiver about 50 yards downfield. If Murietta and Co. can cut down on the turnovers, they have enough talent on the offense to score on a defense not as good as they saw last week. I think Souers finds a way to steal the last conference game of the season for the Jacks, and finish the season on a somewhat decent note.
What to watch : Turnovers and special teams will decide this one. Whoever makes the fewest turnovers will most likely win.
- 17-20
#10 Montana State @ #20 Eastern Washington
- Eastern got down early to Cal Poly and could not quite catch up, despite a brilliant second half performance by Erik Meyer. He finished 26/38 for 428 and 3 TDs with 1 INT. But they could not get the running game going, only rushing for 93 yards, and that is the reason they got down so early. Cal Poly ran the option with little resistance as they cruised to a 40-35 victory at home vs a very dangerous Eagle squad. Montana State struggled early against a hapless Sac squad without its leading passer or rusher, but went on to score 26 unanswered in cruising to a 37-16 victory riding the shoulders of RS Freshman Evin Groves, who rushed for 113 yards and 3 TDs in about 3 quarters of play, marking the first time this season someone without the name Lulay has rushed over 100 for the Bobcats. MSU held Sac to just 231 yards of total offense. They will not be able to do that against EWU, who averages nearly 512 yards of total offense per game. While the Bobcat pass defense is ranked 19th in the nation in pass efficiency, no one has been able to stop Meyer and Kimble. And a suprising stat for Eastern is that they are 10th in that same category, which bodes well against a very pass-oriented Bobcat team. While Eastern has been good at defending the pass, they haven't faced as good of a passing team as MSU yet. While Lulay isn't having the season everyone thought he might, he has been anything but lackluster. He has thrown for 2272 yards for the season while adding another 487 on the ground. The Bobcats were also without star wideout Tremaine Murray last week, sitting on the bench with a hip pointer. The Bobcats will not be able to stop the EWU offense, especially if Eastern gets a run game going. The Bobcat defense has played well against the run the last 2 weeks against below average run offenses, meanwhile the Eagles have failed to rush for 100 yards for 2 straight games. The Bobcats have only allowed one 300 yard passing day against them this year (303 to NAU), but have only allowed less than 100 on the ground once. The Eagles have given up just 185 in the air per game, but have given up 165 a game on the ground. Very interesting matchup indeed. Eastern is playing for its playoff lives after a devastating loss to Cal Poly last weekend. The Bobcats are playing with a new confidence and will look to contain Meyer and Kimble and make Eastern beat them on the ground. Eastern has a tendency to fall behind early in games, and I think they will do just that, and will not be able to catch Lulay and Co, barring the Bobcats find sucess running the ball against a suspect run D. Also, another starting DB for Eastern was injured, and they will have a tough time stopping Gatewood/Guinn/Murray with such a depleted secondary.
What to watch : Evin Groves should get his first start of the season Saturday against a suspect Eagle run D. If he can have another solid 100 yard 5 YPC day, the Cats should be able to keep Meyer off the field long enough to hold on.
- 38-34
Weber State @ Portland State
- The Viks could only watch as they saw their playoffs dreams fizzle on a 54 yard boot by ISU last week. In typical Viking fashion, they started the year off strong only to fall flat on their faces down the stretch. With only one game remaining, all PSU can hope for is a winning season at 6-5. Unfortunately for them they face a very tough Weber team that is playing better and better as the season goes on. Weber is coming off a bye after a 2 big wins against EWU and ISU, and are sitting in 3rd place in the Sky. Yea you heard me, Weber is in third place. McBride has exceeded all expectations for Weber, taking a 1-10 team and turning them into a 5-6 one at the very worst (currently sitting 5-4). Junior QB Ian Pizzaro has had a wonderful season, but is very well complimented with the running game of Zach Hall, who has rushed for nearly 800 yards on the year, considering he wasn't even the starter until about the 4th game. They face a demoralized Viking team that is playing for pride at this point. Weber is one of the most balanced attacks in the league, and PSU is going to have a hard time deciding who to focus on, Pizzaro or Hall. But Weber will know exactly who to focus on - Joe Rubin. This Viking team has ridden Rubin all year, and when teams were sucessful in stopping Rubin, they were therefore sucessful in stopping PSU. Weber is playing too well right now, and Sawyer Smith will be pressured by Brady Fosmark, the Buchanan Candidate for the Wildcats. The Cats are still fighting for the autobid, and therefore have more riding on the game than the demoralized Vikings. PSU will most likely try to contain the running game, but will not be sucessful stopping Pizzaro, regardless of whether or not they do stop the Weber rushing attack. PSU has a weak secondary and Pizzaro is playing as well as anyone in the Big Sky. I like the Wildcats by 2 scores on the road.
What to watch : Weber is coming off a bye week after 2 huge wins and PSU is coming off a season-ending loss on the road.
- 27-17
#2 Montana @ Sacramento State
- Well I guess the one good spot about the Hornets is that all of their victories have come at home. They have been spanked by everyone and their 3rd stringers grandmothers. Okay, a bit harsh, but this team is downright awful, and especially so once you get past the 1st stringers, which they will again have to be without starting QB Chris Hurd and leading rusher Ryan Mole (I am not positive on these injuries but it is impossible to find information about the Hornets so I am basing my predictions without Mole and Hurd). While the Hornets were getting beaten up by Bobcats, the Griz defense was beating down the NAU offense. The Griz defense allowed just 251 yards and only 58 on the ground, and scored a TD on an INT and another on a blocked FG. The bad news for the Griz is that their offense only outgained NAU by 4 yards. Berquist had his worst day as a Griz, going 10/26 for just 80 yards and an INT. Hilliard also failed to reach 100 yards for only the 4th time this year. Sac has a couple things going for them - they play on grass and they aren't playing at WAGriz. That is about it, and it won't be near enough to beat a Griz team that has yet to fire on all cylinders. If the offense can match the defenses performance, UM wins by 21. If either side sputters again, they still win by 2 scores. If Mole or Hurd are back, then the game might be a little closer, but UM will be gameplanning to stop the run and force whomever is under center to beat them with his arm. Not one Sac QB has proven he can, and backup QB Brad Tredway was benched last week vs MSU for 3rd stringer Crosby Wehr, and combined couldn't throw for over 70 yards. If there is one way to beat the Griz defense it is through the air, but Sac does not have the weapons to do so. Griz cruise on the road, but may struggle early on trying to find a rhythm.
What to watch : Defense and special teams should score at least 7 points for the Griz.
- 31-14
Possible upset of the week: NAU over ISU
Best matchup: MSU @ EWU
Worst matchup: UM @ CSUS
That brings my season total to 77.42%, 24 for 31.
Teams still in contention for the coveted autobid:
UM 4-1 (@Sac @MSU) - Winning out = winning conference outright
MSU 4-1 (@EWU UM) - Same as UM
EWU 4-2 (MSU UC Davis) - Needs to beat MSU and have the Griz lose to someone
WSU 4-2 (@PSU @SUU) - Needs everyone to lose
PSU 3-3 (WSU) - Eliminated
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona
- NAU was blanked by UM last week at home, failing to score any points, and the second time in 3 weeks they have been shut out. The game was still within reach at the start of the 4th, with the Griz leading just 10-0. But special teams and defensive scores would propel the Griz to victory despite only scoring 6 (9 if you count the drive that went for negative yards) offensive points. Despite holding Berquist to just 80 passing yards, and only giving up 175 on the ground (only?), the NAU offense could just not get it done. Murietta continues to show why his freshman season was a fluke, throwing for 184 yards on 17/37 and 3 INTs, against a suspect Griz secondary. ISU won a THRILLER at home vs PSU. They contained the ever-dangerous Joe Rubin, allowing just 113 yards on 34 carries. Smith found sucess through the air for the Viks, but ultimately a last second 54 yard FG would win this one for the Bengals. This game matches up well for the run-happy Bengals. The NAU run defense showed signs of life against UM, but will have a harder task containing the duo of Cornist and Barnett. Hagler didn't even throw an INT for the Bengals, only the second time that has happened this year. NAU's defense is going to have to play as well as they did vs UM, and their offense needs to find anything that works. Murietta has been lackluster and Sanchez hasn't had any blocking, due to the many injuries on the OL for NAU. Kory Mahr is turning into a prime-time receiver for NAU, and Murietta can hit him if he has time in the pocket. Murietta made a couple bone-headed plays last week that may have cost NAU the game, but made a perfect strike on the first play of the game that would have been a TD had it not gone right through the hands of his receiver about 50 yards downfield. If Murietta and Co. can cut down on the turnovers, they have enough talent on the offense to score on a defense not as good as they saw last week. I think Souers finds a way to steal the last conference game of the season for the Jacks, and finish the season on a somewhat decent note.
What to watch : Turnovers and special teams will decide this one. Whoever makes the fewest turnovers will most likely win.
- 17-20
#10 Montana State @ #20 Eastern Washington
- Eastern got down early to Cal Poly and could not quite catch up, despite a brilliant second half performance by Erik Meyer. He finished 26/38 for 428 and 3 TDs with 1 INT. But they could not get the running game going, only rushing for 93 yards, and that is the reason they got down so early. Cal Poly ran the option with little resistance as they cruised to a 40-35 victory at home vs a very dangerous Eagle squad. Montana State struggled early against a hapless Sac squad without its leading passer or rusher, but went on to score 26 unanswered in cruising to a 37-16 victory riding the shoulders of RS Freshman Evin Groves, who rushed for 113 yards and 3 TDs in about 3 quarters of play, marking the first time this season someone without the name Lulay has rushed over 100 for the Bobcats. MSU held Sac to just 231 yards of total offense. They will not be able to do that against EWU, who averages nearly 512 yards of total offense per game. While the Bobcat pass defense is ranked 19th in the nation in pass efficiency, no one has been able to stop Meyer and Kimble. And a suprising stat for Eastern is that they are 10th in that same category, which bodes well against a very pass-oriented Bobcat team. While Eastern has been good at defending the pass, they haven't faced as good of a passing team as MSU yet. While Lulay isn't having the season everyone thought he might, he has been anything but lackluster. He has thrown for 2272 yards for the season while adding another 487 on the ground. The Bobcats were also without star wideout Tremaine Murray last week, sitting on the bench with a hip pointer. The Bobcats will not be able to stop the EWU offense, especially if Eastern gets a run game going. The Bobcat defense has played well against the run the last 2 weeks against below average run offenses, meanwhile the Eagles have failed to rush for 100 yards for 2 straight games. The Bobcats have only allowed one 300 yard passing day against them this year (303 to NAU), but have only allowed less than 100 on the ground once. The Eagles have given up just 185 in the air per game, but have given up 165 a game on the ground. Very interesting matchup indeed. Eastern is playing for its playoff lives after a devastating loss to Cal Poly last weekend. The Bobcats are playing with a new confidence and will look to contain Meyer and Kimble and make Eastern beat them on the ground. Eastern has a tendency to fall behind early in games, and I think they will do just that, and will not be able to catch Lulay and Co, barring the Bobcats find sucess running the ball against a suspect run D. Also, another starting DB for Eastern was injured, and they will have a tough time stopping Gatewood/Guinn/Murray with such a depleted secondary.
What to watch : Evin Groves should get his first start of the season Saturday against a suspect Eagle run D. If he can have another solid 100 yard 5 YPC day, the Cats should be able to keep Meyer off the field long enough to hold on.
- 38-34
Weber State @ Portland State
- The Viks could only watch as they saw their playoffs dreams fizzle on a 54 yard boot by ISU last week. In typical Viking fashion, they started the year off strong only to fall flat on their faces down the stretch. With only one game remaining, all PSU can hope for is a winning season at 6-5. Unfortunately for them they face a very tough Weber team that is playing better and better as the season goes on. Weber is coming off a bye after a 2 big wins against EWU and ISU, and are sitting in 3rd place in the Sky. Yea you heard me, Weber is in third place. McBride has exceeded all expectations for Weber, taking a 1-10 team and turning them into a 5-6 one at the very worst (currently sitting 5-4). Junior QB Ian Pizzaro has had a wonderful season, but is very well complimented with the running game of Zach Hall, who has rushed for nearly 800 yards on the year, considering he wasn't even the starter until about the 4th game. They face a demoralized Viking team that is playing for pride at this point. Weber is one of the most balanced attacks in the league, and PSU is going to have a hard time deciding who to focus on, Pizzaro or Hall. But Weber will know exactly who to focus on - Joe Rubin. This Viking team has ridden Rubin all year, and when teams were sucessful in stopping Rubin, they were therefore sucessful in stopping PSU. Weber is playing too well right now, and Sawyer Smith will be pressured by Brady Fosmark, the Buchanan Candidate for the Wildcats. The Cats are still fighting for the autobid, and therefore have more riding on the game than the demoralized Vikings. PSU will most likely try to contain the running game, but will not be sucessful stopping Pizzaro, regardless of whether or not they do stop the Weber rushing attack. PSU has a weak secondary and Pizzaro is playing as well as anyone in the Big Sky. I like the Wildcats by 2 scores on the road.
What to watch : Weber is coming off a bye week after 2 huge wins and PSU is coming off a season-ending loss on the road.
- 27-17
#2 Montana @ Sacramento State
- Well I guess the one good spot about the Hornets is that all of their victories have come at home. They have been spanked by everyone and their 3rd stringers grandmothers. Okay, a bit harsh, but this team is downright awful, and especially so once you get past the 1st stringers, which they will again have to be without starting QB Chris Hurd and leading rusher Ryan Mole (I am not positive on these injuries but it is impossible to find information about the Hornets so I am basing my predictions without Mole and Hurd). While the Hornets were getting beaten up by Bobcats, the Griz defense was beating down the NAU offense. The Griz defense allowed just 251 yards and only 58 on the ground, and scored a TD on an INT and another on a blocked FG. The bad news for the Griz is that their offense only outgained NAU by 4 yards. Berquist had his worst day as a Griz, going 10/26 for just 80 yards and an INT. Hilliard also failed to reach 100 yards for only the 4th time this year. Sac has a couple things going for them - they play on grass and they aren't playing at WAGriz. That is about it, and it won't be near enough to beat a Griz team that has yet to fire on all cylinders. If the offense can match the defenses performance, UM wins by 21. If either side sputters again, they still win by 2 scores. If Mole or Hurd are back, then the game might be a little closer, but UM will be gameplanning to stop the run and force whomever is under center to beat them with his arm. Not one Sac QB has proven he can, and backup QB Brad Tredway was benched last week vs MSU for 3rd stringer Crosby Wehr, and combined couldn't throw for over 70 yards. If there is one way to beat the Griz defense it is through the air, but Sac does not have the weapons to do so. Griz cruise on the road, but may struggle early on trying to find a rhythm.
What to watch : Defense and special teams should score at least 7 points for the Griz.
- 31-14
Possible upset of the week: NAU over ISU
Best matchup: MSU @ EWU
Worst matchup: UM @ CSUS