Bracketology 2008, Week 1

[TheValleyRaider]

It's that time again xnodx

The mostly-loved, occasionally respected and even rarely repped (*coughcough*) Bracketology thread is back. For those of you returning to the action, a refresher, and for the newbies, an introduction

This works in a rather simple manner. Using the tools at my disposal, I will attempt to construct a playoff field based solely on the principle of if the season ended today. Taking the current conference leaders (after tiebreakers, if necessary), and then selecting at-larges through the GPI through a formula to be explained later, we'll have 16 playoff teams and soon a bracket to follow

Without further ado, let's get to the brackets

Autobids
Big Sky: Weber State
WSU gets the autobid over NAU because Weber has beaten Montana and EWU, while NAU gets the Griz, Eagles and Bobcats all in the coming weeks
CAA: James Madison
4-0 Dukes beat 3-0 Nova because having a win in hand is better than not yet having played
MEAC: Hampton
4-0 Pirates over 3-0 SC State for the same reason as CAA
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
SIU is tied with WIU and UNI at 3-1, but SIU beat UNI in the only meeting between any of the 3 teams
OVC: Tennessee State
3-0 is better than 4-1 or 3-1 so far, but it's early yet
Patriot: Lafayette
Leopards get the benefit of doubt in 5-way 1-0 logjam with the best overall record at 5-1
Southern: Elon
5-0 in any conference is pretty good, easily the SoCon's best...so far
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Tied with UCA at the top of the conference, but the poor Bears are still in NCAA purgatory for 1 season more

Conditional Auto-Bid
Related to the future expansion of the playoff field (coming in 2010), the NCAA created the opportunity for one of the conferences likely to receive the new autobid to have "earned access" to the field. If the NEC Champion met a preset list of conditions, they would be automatically entered in the field. The NEC's leader, Albany, has not and it appears cannot meet those conditions this season. Better luck next year Danes

At-Larges
These are selected using what I like to call the 8+1 formula. Since it's inception, the GPI has correctly predicted 7 of the 8 at-large teams with the exception of 2 seasons (one where it went 8 for 8, and then another at 6 for 8, so it evens out). Both human and computer polls have their strengths and shortcomings, but I need a system of some sort, and there's the GPI with a nice record, so it works for me. I take the '+1' team as one to replace the team I would guess would not get selected out of the Top 8, giving the GPI its traditional 7 out of 8 prediction
Here's your '8+1':
1-Villanova
2-Montana
3-Appalachian State
4-Richmond
5-Cal Poly
6-Wofford
7-New Hampshire
8-Northern Iowa
+1-Northern Arizona
I chose NAU over William & Mary right now because they were the next 2 teams, and I'm trying to keep it simple for the first week. The Lumberjacks get the nod as a 3rd Big Sky team instead of a 5th CAA team

With the question being who to drop, I'll take Northern Iowa. No disrespect to the Panthers, but the MVFC does not look nearly as strong this season, plus I couldn't drop a SoCon team or CAA team given relative strengths

With that said, here's your Field of 16
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Elon
Hampton
James Madison
Lafayette
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Arizona
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Stephen F. Austin
Tennessee State
Villanova
Weber State
Wofford

Bracket to come as soon as I can type them up

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What this tells me is - it's going to very likely be a very, very crowded field.

[McNeese75]

SFA??? xlolx

[dgreco]

Liberty dropped in the GPI, no chance of at large if they win out? I know they are 30 right now. We know the NEC team Albany missed out on the AQ

[Syntax Error]

SFA??? xlolxGotta be a misprint. (No offense SFA)

[TheValleyRaider]

As a brief reminder, the Field of 16
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Elon
Hampton
James Madison
Lafayette
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Arizona
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Stephen F. Austin
Tennessee State
Villanova
Weber State
Wofford

First, the 4 seeded teams. These are chosen mostly on record and poll standing, with an possible eye towards geography
1-James Madison
2-Villanova
3-Weber State
4-Elon
This was a tough group to pick. With FBS schools actually paying attention to their FCS opponents this year, there are no undefeateds at this point. JMU is the clear #1 to me, Villanova gets a seed as they are also an FCS-unbeaten, as is Weber. Nova gets the seed nod over Weber due to high poll position, but really it could go any which way after JMU at this point. Elon gets their seed essentially for winning the 2nd best conference, even with their loss to Richmond

Next, we pair the teams. These pairings are based on geography, and are set up based on getting as many teams within driving distance of one another. Once you are on a plane, however, you can go anywhere
James Madison and Wofford
Villanova and Lafayette
Weber State and Stephen F. Austin
Elon and Hampton
Appalachian State and Richmond
Montana and New Hampshire
Northern Arizona and Cal Poly
Southern Illinois and Tennessee State
This was tough with 4 teams being out west, but 3 of them from the same conference. I went with SFA going to Weber because they should get the weaker opponent as the seed. Lafayette and Villanova seemed obvious to me, SIU and TSU becomes a more traditional MVFC-OVC matchup, and that left a bunch of good teams in the CAA and SoCon to matchup. Hampton, as the weakest, should go to #1, but that left too many potential SoCon intraconference matchups, which we can't have, and so changes were made. Tough for JMU, lucky for Elon. That left UNH to go to Montana, since I set Cal Poly with NAU to avoid repeating an in-season matchup

Next up, we pick the home teams. Seeded teams are automatically at home unless they face a higher seeded team, or choose not to host (which has only happened once to my knowledge). Otherwise, home teams are selected based on tradition and attendance
James Madison hosts Wofford
Villanova hosts Lafayette
Weber State hosts Stephen F. Austin
Elon hosts Hampton
Appalachian State hosts Richmond
Montana hosts New Hampshire
Cal Poly hosts Northern Arizona
Tennessee State hosts Southern Illinois
The seeds all host, simple enough. After that, ASU and Montana are easy picks. Cal Poly has a higher average attendance, according to the NCAA, so I pick them to outbid NAU, and then SIU doesn't host because they rarely (if ever?) bid to host non-seeded games. Plus, TSU draws huge crowds playing in an NFL stadium. Potential landmine in the TSU hosting would be the NFL's Tennessee Titans being home that weekend and not wanting the field torn up the day before their game. The Titans are in Detroit that week, so no problem there

Final step is to matchup the non-seeded games with seeded ones for the Quarterfinals. This is done with a mix of geography and seeding in mind
James Madison with Tennessee State
Villanova with Montana
Weber State with Cal Poly
Elon with Appalachian State
These could go any which way, and really I chose these matchups in order to actually set up a bracket

Anyway, after a good deal of work, we have a 16 Team Bracket based on the season to date

#1-James Madison
Wofford

Tennessee State
Southern Illinois

#4-Elon
Hampton

Appalachian State
Richmond

#2-Villanova
Lafayette

Montana
New Hampshire

#3-Weber State
Stephen F. Austin

Cal Poly
Northern Arizona

So there you have it. In the coming weeks, you'll most likely see some of the CAA and SoCon teams drop out as they accumulate losses by playing one another, most likely opening up spots for at least a 2nd MVFC team, and possibly a 2nd bid from the MEAC/PL/OVC

Any part of this process is fair game, from the at-large selections, choice of seeds, matchups, hosts, most of it. By all means feel free to add your own selections and changes to the basic formula

[TheValleyRaider]

SFA??? xlolx


Gotta be a misprint. (No offense SFA)

No misprint

SFA is 2-0 in the Southland right now, which is better than anyone else can say at the moment. Wins in hand count here xnodx

The autobids tend to be the most volatile part, as they can change very quickly with tiebreakers, and change the most due to the high frequency of intraconference play late in the season

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Raider, this is pretty darn good. One thing I disagree on: Tennessee State will be one of the weakest teams in the field and will probably travel to one of the seeded teams. JMU or the SoCon champ are the likely candidates.

Their crowds are really not that impressive.

It is amazing how tight this is. I had assumed the MVC would be a multi-bid league and was about to write 'UNI should be in' ... then I was trying to figure who to take out!

I suspect this picture will get clearer ... not murkier in the upcoming weeks. Thanks!

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Autobids
Big Sky: Weber State
WSU gets the autobid over NAU because Weber has beaten Montana and EWU, while NAU gets the Griz, Eagles and Bobcats all in the coming weeks


Weber and EWU haven't played yet.

[IaaScribe]

Liberty dropped in the GPI, no chance of at large if they win out? I know they are 30 right now. We know the NEC team Albany missed out on the AQ

They'll have a chance if they win out. One loss eliminates them entirely, and they'll be probably 50-50 even if they get to 11-1. Though a win over Elon at the buzzer, so to speak, would be a mighty impressive notch on the belt.

By the time we get to the last week in November, a lot of teams will have eliminated themselves from at-large contention anyway.

[Pitz]

Looks like almost the exact same field as nobowls.com which follows the same "if the season ended today" criteria. The only real difference is Northern Iowa and the seeding:

www.nobowls.com

Nacogdoches is celebrating!

[PantherRob82]

Weber would not be seeded.

[PantherRob82]

I like his bracket:

(1) James Madison
Harrisonburg, VA
Elon

Lafayette
Easton, PA
Villanova

(4) Northern Iowa
Cedar Falls, IA
Weber St.

Montana
Missoula, MT
Stephen F. Austin

(2) Appalachian St.
Boone, NC
Tennessee St.

N. Arizona
Flagstaff, AZ
Cal Poly

(3) Wofford
Spartanburg, SC
New Hampshire

Richmond
Richmond, VA
Hampton


If we win and Montana wins, they come to the Dome. :D

[Bogus Megapardus]

Looks like almost the exact same field as nobowls.com


I like the nobowls.com version, with the Villanova-Lafayette contest taking place in Easton.

I heartily encourage a large Wildcat fanbase to arrive, wildly screaming for their side, showing the Pardsville golf-clap crowd how its supposed to be done. Maybe by the the end of the third quarter the Maroon-and-White faithful can learn how to peg the jumbotron decibel meter, once and for all.

[TheValleyRaider]

Raider, this is pretty darn good. One thing I disagree on: Tennessee State will be one of the weakest teams in the field and will probably travel to one of the seeded teams. JMU or the SoCon champ are the likely candidates.

Their crowds are really not that impressive.

I put TSU with SIU because the committee has loved the OVC-Gateway matchup, and I see no reason to change that just because it's called "Missouri Valley" now :D


Weber and EWU haven't played yet.

xdohx I was even looking at their schedule as I typed that. Still, just beating Montana is pretty impressive


Looks like almost the exact same field as nobowls.com which follows the same "if the season ended today" criteria. The only real difference is Northern Iowa and the seeding:

www.nobowls.com

Nacogdoches is celebrating!

Interesting..... xchinscratchx

This is the 4th year I've been doing this. I wonder how long he's been going....? xconfusedx xeyebrowx

[dbackjon]

NAU's attendance should be improved after the next two home games.

[Cincy App]

I put TSU with SIU because the committee has loved the OVC-Gateway matchup, and I see no reason to change that just because it's called "Missouri Valley" now :D


Tennessee State and S. Illinois are also relatively close. It's highly likely they would face off in the first round if both make the field. I would expect they would play in Carbondale though. TSU only seems to draw well for classic games.

[WrenFGun]

I was bored in class, so I had my own projections that I came up with the following 16 teams in the tournament:

CAA: New Hampshire, Richmond, James Madison, Villanova
SLC: McNeese State
Patriot: LaFayette
Big Sky: Montana, Weber State
MVFC: Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois
SoCon: Appalachian State, Wofford, Elon
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Tennessee State
Great West: Cal Poly

Last Teams Out: Furman, Western Illinois, William & Mary, UMass, Northern Arizona, Jacksonville State, UT-Martin, SC State

Furman still has to play Wofford and Appalachian State, has a non-counter in Mars Hill and lost handily to Elon. Western Illinois is going to have to beat one of Southern Illinois or Northern Iowa to have a shot. William & Mary needs to beat either Richmond or James Madison. UMass still has to play UNH and Maine, and has three losses. Northern Arizona hasn't play anyone, and still has Montana, Eastern Washington and Weber State left. As I mentioned, the NAU/Weber State loser is likely eliminated from playoff contention, if not at least in big trouble. Jacksonville State and UT-Martin have questionable resumes, and SC State is going to be without a real quality win if they can't knock Hampton off.

My seeds would be James Madison, Villanova, Appalachian State and Weber State, right now, but Weber could easily be in trouble if they're not careful.

[dbackjon]

I am not sure how you can say the NAU-Weber game is an elim game. If NAU loses, but wins out, they are 9-2, and in. If Weber loses, but wins out, they are 9-3, with losses to two FBS and NAU, and would be in as well.

A loss both in "Must Win" territory for the rest of the season, but no where near an elim game.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Does the committee care more about geography/expenses .... or keeping potential conference matchups from happening prior to the Semi-Final round?

For instance, in the Nobowls bracket, JMU and Villanova could possibly play in the 2nd round. Same deal with Richmond and UNH.

Don't they try to keep that from happening so early?

[WrenFGun]

I am not sure how you can say the NAU-Weber game is an elim game. If NAU loses, but wins out, they are 9-2, and in. If Weber loses, but wins out, they are 9-3, with losses to two FBS and NAU, and would be in as well.

A loss both in "Must Win" territory for the rest of the season, but no where near an elim game.

I should have rephrased myself. I don't think the loser of that game will make the playoffs. If Weber State loses that game, they'll have 2 FBS losses, 2 non-counters and a loss to Northern Arizona. If Northern Arizona loses, they'll continue to not have a "quality win" and they'll still have Montana and Eastern Washington, along with Montana State, on the schedule, and they'll likely be in third place in the BSC. Unless they beat Montana, it'll be hard to have the resume necessary to make it.

[dbackjon]

I should have rephrased myself. I don't think the loser of that game will make the playoffs. If Weber State loses that game, they'll have 2 FBS losses, 2 non-counters and a loss to Northern Arizona. If Northern Arizona loses, they'll continue to not have a "quality win" and they'll still have Montana and Eastern Washington, along with Montana State, on the schedule, and they'll likely be in third place in the BSC. Unless they beat Montana, it'll be hard to have the resume necessary to make it.

If NAU loses to both, but beats EWU/MSU, they would be 8-3. On the bubble, depending on what other teams do.

Weber at 9-3 is in.

[Chi Panther]

It's that time again xnodx

The mostly-loved, occasionally respected and even rarely repped (*coughcough*) Bracketology thread is back. For those of you returning to the action, a refresher, and for the newbies, an introduction

This works in a rather simple manner. Using the tools at my disposal, I will attempt to construct a playoff field based solely on the principle of if the season ended today. Taking the current conference leaders (after tiebreakers, if necessary), and then selecting at-larges through the GPI through a formula to be explained later, we'll have 16 playoff teams and soon a bracket to follow

Without further ado, let's get to the brackets

Autobids
Big Sky: Weber State
WSU gets the autobid over NAU because Weber has beaten Montana and EWU, while NAU gets the Griz, Eagles and Bobcats all in the coming weeks
CAA: James Madison
4-0 Dukes beat 3-0 Nova because having a win in hand is better than not yet having played
MEAC: Hampton
4-0 Pirates over 3-0 SC State for the same reason as CAA
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
SIU is tied with WIU and UNI at 3-1, but SIU beat UNI in the only meeting between any of the 3 teams
OVC: Tennessee State
3-0 is better than 4-1 or 3-1 so far, but it's early yet
Patriot: Lafayette
Leopards get the benefit of doubt in 5-way 1-0 logjam with the best overall record at 5-1
Southern: Elon
5-0 in any conference is pretty good, easily the SoCon's best...so far
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Tied with UCA at the top of the conference, but the poor Bears are still in NCAA purgatory for 1 season more

Conditional Auto-Bid
Related to the future expansion of the playoff field (coming in 2010), the NCAA created the opportunity for one of the conferences likely to receive the new autobid to have "earned access" to the field. If the NEC Champion met a preset list of conditions, they would be automatically entered in the field. The NEC's leader, Albany, has not and it appears cannot meet those conditions this season. Better luck next year Danes

At-Larges
These are selected using what I like to call the 8+1 formula. Since it's inception, the GPI has correctly predicted 7 of the 8 at-large teams with the exception of 2 seasons (one where it went 8 for 8, and then another at 6 for 8, so it evens out). Both human and computer polls have their strengths and shortcomings, but I need a system of some sort, and there's the GPI with a nice record, so it works for me. I take the '+1' team as one to replace the team I would guess would not get selected out of the Top 8, giving the GPI its traditional 7 out of 8 prediction
Here's your '8+1':
1-Villanova
2-Montana
3-Appalachian State
4-Richmond
5-Cal Poly
6-Wofford
7-New Hampshire
8-Northern Iowa
+1-Northern Arizona
I chose NAU over William & Mary right now because they were the next 2 teams, and I'm trying to keep it simple for the first week. The Lumberjacks get the nod as a 3rd Big Sky team instead of a 5th CAA team

With the question being who to drop, I'll take Northern Iowa. No disrespect to the Panthers, but the MVFC does not look nearly as strong this season, plus I couldn't drop a SoCon team or CAA team given relative strengths

With that said, here's your Field of 16
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Elon
Hampton
James Madison
Lafayette
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Arizona
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Stephen F. Austin
Tennessee State
Villanova
Weber State
Wofford

Bracket to come as soon as I can type them up

What do you project UNI's record to be?

Also WIU's and SIU's?

[WrenFGun]

If NAU loses to both, but beats EWU/MSU, they would be 8-3. On the bubble, depending on what other teams do.

Weber at 9-3 is in.

I have to imagine NAU with losses to both at 8-3 would be at the very bottom of the 8-3 squads, behind even UNH. I think, like UNH, they'd need help if they wanted in at 8-3.

[dbackjon]

I have to imagine NAU with losses to both at 8-3 would be at the very bottom of the 8-3 squads, behind even UNH. I think, like UNH, they'd need help if they wanted in at 8-3.

I think the 8-3 teams will be sweating it out. It would be interesting to see how the committee leans if the choice was a 5th place CAA team at 8-3, and a 3rd place Big Sky at 8-3. Big Sky is a tough conference this year, UNH's schedule is rated by Sagarin as easier than NAU's - and NAU has yet to play the "tough" part of the schedule.


Of course knowing Sauers' team, we will screw the pouch and end up 7-4 xmadx

[WrenFGun]

I don't see any forseeable way that the CAA would get five this year. I think Nova and JMU are virtual locks, and one spot will likely go to the W&M/Richmond winner. That leaves a fourth spot for the UMass/UNH winner, IMO.

[joecooll6]

I'm very worried that UNI, at 5-2, would have to win out to make it this year. Barring upsets, crowded field this year. We gotta root for some underdogs to win in some of the other conferences Panther fans.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

I don't see any forseeable way that the CAA would get five this year. I think Nova and JMU are virtual locks, and one spot will likely go to the W&M/Richmond winner. That leaves a fourth spot for the UMass/UNH winner, IMO.

Wren, what happens if you guys beat Villanova and lose to Umass ... or WM beats JMU and then loses to UR? It is conceivable. You would have 6 teams with a legitimate gripe to get in ... and little between them.

The committee would have some really tough decisions to make.

[WrenFGun]

Wren, what happens if you guys beat Villanova and lose to Umass ... or WM beats JMU and then loses to UR? It is conceivable. You would have 6 teams with a legitimate gripe to get in ... and little between them.

The committee would have some really tough decisions to make.

Well, obviously, we're operating under the most likely scenario. If W&M beats JMU and everyone else, but loses to Richmond, it'd be hard to deny them. All we can predict is the probable outcomes. Things do tend to have a way of working themselves out, either way.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I think the 8-3 teams will be sweating it out. It would be interesting to see how the committee leans if the choice was a 5th place CAA team at 8-3, and a 3rd place Big Sky at 8-3. Big Sky is a tough conference this year, UNH's schedule is rated by Sagarin as easier than NAU's - and NAU has yet to play the "tough" part of the schedule.


Of course knowing Sauers' team, we will screw the pouch and end up 7-4 xmadx

And like NAU, UNH finishes with a tough stretch of @Nova, UMass and @Maine.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I should have rephrased myself. I don't think the loser of that game will make the playoffs. If Weber State loses that game, they'll have 2 FBS losses, 2 non-counters and a loss to Northern Arizona. If Northern Arizona loses, they'll continue to not have a "quality win" and they'll still have Montana and Eastern Washington, along with Montana State, on the schedule, and they'll likely be in third place in the BSC. Unless they beat Montana, it'll be hard to have the resume necessary to make it.


If NAU loses to both, but beats EWU/MSU, they would be 8-3. On the bubble, depending on what other teams do.

Weber at 9-3 is in.

If Wren is correct about the two non counters, then Weber at 9-3 would really be 7-3 in the eyes of the committee. I hardly think that would make them a slam dunk. Even 8-3 teams on the bubble are probably going to get a bid before Weber.

And in this scenario won't NAU also be 7-3 in the eyes of the committee due to the win over NM Highlands? Not sure that's on the bubble.

[WrenFGun]

Well, I'm not sure it's a huge concern, since they'd still meet the 7 DI win threshold. I'm not sure how much more value the committee would award to an 8 DI win team. I suppose it'd depend on specific resumes.

[skinny_uncle]

Looks like almost the exact same field as nobowls.com which follows the same "if the season ended today" criteria. The only real difference is Northern Iowa and the seeding:

www.nobowls.com

Nacogdoches is celebrating!
If the season ended today, SIU would be in over UNI since they own the tiebreaker in the Valley with their win over the Panthers.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

We're probably going to find out because of the 12 game schedule. Like I said in an earlier post, the committee is going to have to make decisions about 9-2, 9-3, 8-3, 8-4 records. If the nine win teams get any advantage over an eight win team then both will get priority over a seven D-I team. I just don't know what they're going to do. :p My logic tells me that I'd prefer to have the eight D-I wins come committee time.

[dbackjon]

If Wren is correct about the two non counters, then Weber at 9-3 would really be 7-3 in the eyes of the committee. I hardly think that would make them a slam dunk. Even 8-3 teams on the bubble are probably going to get a bid before Weber.

And in this scenario won't NAU also be 7-3 in the eyes of the committee due to the win over NM Highlands? Not sure that's on the bubble.


Well, I'm not sure it's a huge concern, since they'd still meet the 7 DI win threshold. I'm not sure how much more value the committee would award to an 8 DI win team. I suppose it'd depend on specific resumes.


Correct - it will depend on how many other "8" or "9" win teams are really 7 D-I wins as well.

Another twist this year is the fact that some teams are playing more games. How does that factor in?

[skinny_uncle]

Well, I'm not sure it's a huge concern, since they'd still meet the 7 DI win threshold. I'm not sure how much more value the committee would award to an 8 DI win team. I suppose it'd depend on specific resumes.
Is it a 7 win threshold for both teams with 11 game schedules and those with 12 game schedules? Somehow, that doesn't seem right.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Tennessee State will be one of the weakest teams in the field and will probably travel to one of the seeded teams. JMU or the SoCon champ are the likely candidates.

Their crowds are really not that impressive.

Say what you want about Tennessee State, but, um, their crowds ARE impressive.

http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/2007/Internet/attendance/IAA_ATTENDANCE.pdf

In 2007, Tennessee State averaged 16,278 per game

Which was better than:

James Madison (14,512)
Wofford (8,345)
UMass (11,710)
UNH (7,242)
Richmond (6,288)

App State and Delaware average more per game - but they were #1 and #2.

So, basically, the team whose crowds are "not that impressive" AVERAGE a crowd that is bigger than UNH and Richmond's average combined.

You can bet they would have a home game. Home game at LP field? Bank on it. They may not be seeded, but they will definitely play a home game.

[TheValleyRaider]

What do you project UNI's record to be?

Also WIU's and SIU's?

Honestly, don't know

Because this is all set up to be "if the season ended today" UNI gets dinged first for losing to SIU, then again because of the relative weakness of the MVFC, especially compared to the CAA, SoCon and Big Sky. I bet you'll see at least one more MVFC team in the playoffs when all is said and done, mostly because those teams in the stronger conferences will begin to hang losses on one another, and eliminate a few contenders

[Cincy App]

Say what you want about Tennessee State, but, um, their crowds ARE impressive.

You can bet they would have a home game. Home game at LP field? Bank on it. They may not be seeded, but they will definitely play a home game.

Tennessee State has outstanding crowds for Classic games that it plays. Some of these games are credited to their home attendance. If you look closer, one would see that they had the following crowds for their conference home games this year:

EKU - 8,276
Austin Peay - 9,358

Accordingly, I stand by my prediction that TSU would be on the road if they make the field. Of course, they better win their conference first. Personally, I still like JSU's chances.

[siuham]

Please enlighten me as to how the MVFC is weaker than the BSC.

[Poly Pigskin]

Is it a 7 win threshold for both teams with 11 game schedules and those with 12 game schedules? Somehow, that doesn't seem right.

Even better, it's a 7 win threshold for 10 game schedules. Stupid hurricanes...

[dbackjon]

Please enlighten me as to how the MVFC is weaker than the BSC.


Your crappy teams are worse than our crappy teams.

[UNHWildCats]

Your crappy teams are worse than our crappy teams.
xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xthumbsupx

[siuham]

Your crappy teams are worse than our crappy teams.

Northern Colorado and Idaho State are great. They're both probably better than Indiana State, but worse than YSU/IlSU/MSU.

Try again.

[FCS Go!]

Northern Colorado and Idaho State are great. They're both probably better than Indiana State, but worse than YSU/IlSU/MSU.

Try again.

I'd disagree but by your own admission you have 4 crappy teams while the BSC only has two. TRY AGAIN. xrotatehx

[FCS Go!]

Does the committee care more about geography/expenses .... or keeping potential conference matchups from happening prior to the Semi-Final round?

For instance, in the Nobowls bracket, JMU and Villanova could possibly play in the 2nd round. Same deal with Richmond and UNH.

Don't they try to keep that from happening so early?

I think that is a 1st round only "rule".

[siuham]

I'd disagree but by your own admission you have 4 crappy teams while the BSC only has two. TRY AGAIN. xrotatehx

Actually I was merely giving the benefit of a doubt that someone would say one of those three secondary teams were the 2nd worst in the Valley, and they'd each take turns beating UNC.

Portland State and Sacramento State are both pretty bad too. That gives 4 and 4, if you wanted to go that route.

[dbackjon]

Actually I was merely giving the benefit of a doubt that someone would say one of those three secondary teams were the 2nd worst in the Valley, and they'd each take turns beating UNC.

Portland State and Sacramento State are both pretty bad too. That gives 4 and 4, if you wanted to go that route.

UNC, Sac or PSU would beat YSU, Mo State, and be equal with Il State.

[siuham]

Anyway, I didn't mean to get into a pissing contest between the BSC and MVFC, I personally think we're pretty damn equal. I was just confused as to how someone thought the BSC was obviously stronger than the MVFC.

Montana = UNI. Both have a disappointing loss, but are the stalwarts of the conference year in and year out.
Weber/NAU = SIU. Perhaps Weber or NAU. I'm more inclined to say NAU from a defensive standpoint.
Weber/NAU = WIU. It'd be a good match-up, any team could win.
EWU = NDSU. Who knows. Both teams screwed up their seasons pretty handily.
Montana St. = IlSU or SDSU.

After this point it's just a crapshoot of bad teams.

[GolfingGriz]

Anyway, I didn't mean to get into a pissing contest between the BSC and MVFC, I personally think we're pretty damn equal. I was just confused as to how someone thought the BSC was obviously stronger than the MVFC.

Montana = UNI. Both have a disappointing loss, but are the stalwarts of the conference year in and year out.
Weber/NAU = SIU. Perhaps Weber or NAU. I'm more inclined to say NAU from a defensive standpoint.
Weber/NAU = WIU. It'd be a good match-up, any team could win.
EWU = NDSU. Who knows. Both teams screwed up their seasons pretty handily.
Montana St. = IlSU or SDSU.

After this point it's just a crapshoot of bad teams.

I would agree that the conferences are even in terms of strength. Both have their good, bad and ugly.

[siuham]

I wonder who would win between Idaho State and Indiana State.

Nevermind. Idaho State would take that one easily.

[leatherneck177]

Honestly, don't know

Because this is all set up to be "if the season ended today" UNI gets dinged first for losing to SIU, then again because of the relative weakness of the MVFC, especially compared to the CAA, SoCon and Big Sky. I bet you'll see at least one more MVFC team in the playoffs when all is said and done, mostly because those teams in the stronger conferences will begin to hang losses on one another, and eliminate a few contenders

Have you seen the teams that play in the Missouri Valley Conference? Take any of these: NDSU, SDSU, WIU, UNI, SIU and place them in any conference and they will be extremely competitive. IL ST, MO ST are also programs that are not pushovers. YSU and IN ST are down this year, but do not count the conference as weak. The teams have just been beating up on each other this year. Wait until the end of the season, you will see how it all plays out.

[putter]

Say what you want about Tennessee State, but, um, their crowds ARE impressive.

http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/2007/Internet/attendance/IAA_ATTENDANCE.pdf

In 2007, Tennessee State averaged 16,278 per game

Which was better than:

James Madison (14,512)
Wofford (8,345)
UMass (11,710)
UNH (7,242)
Richmond (6,288)

App State and Delaware average more per game - but they were #1 and #2.

So, basically, the team whose crowds are "not that impressive" AVERAGE a crowd that is bigger than UNH and Richmond's average combined.

You can bet they would have a home game. Home game at LP field? Bank on it. They may not be seeded, but they will definitely play a home game.

Problem is, unless your a seed, you have to bid on hosting a playoff game. Tennessee State doesn't get 10k to its conference games so they may not want to put out the money to get a home game.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

They also open bids AFTER deciding matchups.

JMU learned this the hard way, going to App St. and YSU because of geographical proximity. Tenn St. could be in a similar position should they make the field this year, and the attendance/bid point might be moot.

[appfan2008]

I always love your work... looks great and cant wait till next week when I hope ASU has one more win and might impress you for a seed!!!

[UNIFanSince1983]

If both SIU and UNI win out, which is still very possible due to the schedules. Both teams will be in. You can count on that because you cannot in your right mind leave a 10-2 team out of the playoffs even in the weak MVC.

[TheValleyRaider]

Have you seen the teams that play in the Missouri Valley Conference? Take any of these: NDSU, SDSU, WIU, UNI, SIU and place them in any conference and they will be extremely competitive. IL ST, MO ST are also programs that are not pushovers. YSU and IN ST are down this year, but do not count the conference as weak. The teams have just been beating up on each other this year. Wait until the end of the season, you will see how it all plays out.

I suppose I forgot to add the "Don't take any of this personally" disclaimer this year

If you look at the metrics I use to make these determinations (really, just the GPI) you can see why the MVFC falls so far behind the others. When I say it's comparatively weaker, just look at the numbers. Even more to the point, who gets dropped? Which team are you going to justify UNI being included over at this point? 16 teams really isn't all that many, and when you deduct slots by giving out the autobids from the weaker conferences, there's even fewer spots to add arguably worthy teams

This kind of thing is meant to spur discussion and see trends in the playoff picture. The best part of this experiment is to see how it all progresses as more games get added. In the next 4 weeks, you'll see how teams play themselves in and out of the picture. It can also help to reduce surprises. Honestly, after doing this through the end of last season, it was very clear to me that the CAA was in very good shape to pick up 5 bids, which they subsequently did. You could see their strength in the ratings all year long. Others, you could tell they would need some help

The point is, there's no reason to get your knickers in a twister because I've "insulted" one conference or team. The Missouri Valley is a quality conference with good teams that will be in the playoff hunt at the end. Right now, though, their overall rating falls behind the other conferences, in particular the two most powerful, the CAA and SoCon

[Griswold]

Elon goes from being seeded (The Valley Raider Bracket) to having to go to Harrisonburg in the 1st Round (Nobowls Bracket) xeekx

One other observation, Southern Conference gets three teams in and they're all in the same half of the bracket.

Great work and write up! xnodx

[appfan2008]

Elon goes from being seeded (The Valley Raider Bracket) to having to go to Harrisonburg in the 1st Round (Nobowls Bracket) xeekx

One other observation, Southern Conference gets three teams in and they're all in the same half of the bracket.

Great work and write up! xnodx

he always does a great job and I think the best part is how he explains the reasoning... that way you know why he did what he did...

[Bogus Megapardus]

he always does a great job and I think the best part is how he explains the reasoning... that way you know why he did what he did...



I agree with appfan. If you beg to differ, why not focus on the analysis not the conclusion? I confess to a Patriot/Ivy/CAA personal bias, because those are the games I get to enjoy in person with my family and friends.

Valley Raider takes a perfectly reasoned, unbiased approach to his formulae, with no showing of bias. That's something I'm ill-equipped to do, but I'm glad he does it. Why not try a bracket of your own? I'd like to see it.

[ur2k]

Problem is, unless your a seed, you have to bid on hosting a playoff game. Tennessee State doesn't get 10k to its conference games so they may not want to put out the money to get a home game.

I also wonder how the agreement is set-up for them to use the facility (since it's also an NFL team's field). Who owns it? Do they have to pay to rent it? etc. That's an interesting case that not (any?) FCS schools have to deal with.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

They also open bids AFTER deciding matchups.

JMU learned this the hard way, going to App St. and YSU because of geographical proximity. Tenn St. could be in a similar position should they make the field this year, and the attendance/bid point might be moot.

Good point, 2k.

[roTSU50]

The city owns the stadium. Titans and TSU "share" it(our name is on it). We pay around 100,000 to use the stadium. We have to pay for general up keep of the stadium when we use it.

Titans has first dibs on the stadium. We have second.

The contract really didn't address playoff games. So in that since, we would have to ask for permission to use it. Also, it would depend on who we would play.

The first time in the playoffs we played A&T(another HBCU) and we had around 25000 there I beleive.

[lizrdgizrd]

The city owns the stadium. Titans and TSU "share" it(our name is on it). We pay around 100,000 to use the stadium. We have to pay for general up keep of the stadium when we use it.

Titans has first dibs on the stadium. We have second.

The contract really didn't address playoff games. So in that since, we would have to ask for permission to use it. Also, it would depend on who we would play.

The first time in the playoffs we played A&T(another HBCU) and we had around 25000 there I beleive.

I wonder how much they charge you for playing post-season games there. That'd have to eat into your budget for the bid process.

[dbackjon]

Having lived in Nashville, if the stadium fee was the only thing keeping TSU from hosting a game, the crap would hit the fan. The only reason the state agreed to contribute money and the way it was built hinged on TSU's use of the facility.

It may have to be a Friday night game, but if TSU is a seed, they will get use of the Stadium

[GolfingGriz]

Having lived in Nashville, if the stadium fee was the only thing keeping TSU from hosting a game, the crap would hit the fan. The only reason the state agreed to contribute money and the way it was built hinged on TSU's use of the facility.

It may have to be a Friday night game, but if TSU is a seed, they will get use of the Stadium

True but I don't see them being a seed. Even if they only have one loss. As of right now there are 12-15 teams that have a more impressive resumes.

[rcny46]

The city owns the stadium. Titans and TSU "share" it(our name is on it). We pay around 100,000 to use the stadium. We have to pay for general up keep of the stadium when we use it.

Titans has first dibs on the stadium. We have second.

The contract really didn't address playoff games. So in that since, we would have to ask for permission to use it. Also, it would depend on who we would play.

The first time in the playoffs we played A&T(another HBCU) and we had around 25000 there I beleive.


BTW,WELCOME to AGS! xthumbsupx

[onemoretime]

Does a 7-4 GSU team get in?

[DSUrocks07]

Does a 7-4 GSU team get in?

They should. They could easily be 10-1 (winning out of course) except for a couple bad breaks xnodx

[siuham]

Does a 7-4 GSU team get in?

With their signature win being...Furman? No. Not this year.

[dbackjon]

Does a 7-4 GSU team get in?


nope

[Bearkats94]

SFA has not play anyone yet. We will see when they play Sam, McNeese, UCA and Txst. They will be 2-4 then.

[GeauxLions94]

SFA??? xlolx

Playoffs???? xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx

[GeauxLions94]

SFA has not play anyone yet. We will see when they play Sam, McNeese, UCA and Txst. They will be 2-4 then.

They did play us and Nicholls State ... course neither could do any justice blowing 28 and 19 point leads xbangx xbangx xbangx xbangx xbangx xbangx

'Jacks do have tough stretch ahead with next four, plus Northwestern State at the end of season. Just be prepared to play full 60 minutes, since they're playing with no fear.

[WrenFGun]

It is extremely unlikely that a 7-4 team makes it this year, unless there is an absolute collapse. It's more likely that an 8-3 major conference team gets snubbed, IMO.

[AZGrizFan]

It is extremely unlikely that a 7-4 team makes it this year, unless there is an absolute collapse. It's more likely that an 8-3 major conference team gets snubbed, IMO.

Agreed, there'll be more than a few 8-3, 8-4 teams that don't get invites. xnodx xnodx xnodx

[mcveyrl]

Agreed, there'll be more than a few 8-3, 8-4 teams that don't get invites. xnodx xnodx xnodx

Yep. There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth on Selection Sunday.

[AZGrizFan]

Yep. There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth on Selection Sunday.

I'm telling you, there's a VERY real possibility that a full 8 teams in this year's tourney could come from the BSC, MVC, Southland and GWFC. That would probably be a first. There's gonna be some pissed of ECB mo-fo's. xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx

[WrenFGun]

They could get eight, but I think it's pretty unlikely. As it currently stands, I project six, with Western Illinois and the loser of Northern Arizona/Weber State being out. In my latest projections, there are some really good teams that would miss out, including the aforementioned two, Massachusetts, William and Mary, Furman, Liberty and SC State. I think what is really interesting is the fact that there is really only one team that I think is a lock (maybe two, considering Montana's remaining schedule) despite a lot of teams being 6 or 7 and 1. Even Elon, Wofford and Villanova could run into trouble. Just for example, if Villanova loses to JMU, UNH and UD (you know they want revenge, even if they're in serious trouble), they'd be on the outside looking in. Just a lot left to play for for a lot of teams.

[WrenFGun]

So that I don't seem biased, UNH could really be in trouble. Even considering likely wins against Hofstra and Towson, I don't feel particularly comfortable with a 1-2 performance against Villanova, UMass and Maine to close the season. There are very real scenarios that would preclude them from the playoffs, were that the case.

[Houndawg]

Yep. There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth on Selection Sunday.

Verily, unto tearing of hair and rending of garments.

[Reign of Terrier]

Does a 7-4 GSU team get in?

You would have to hope that the final standing are Wofford 10-1, App 9-3, and Elon 9-3 that way you can say you lost to a bunch of 9 win teams. Just don't root for elon.

[AZGrizFan]

Verily, unto tearing of hair and rending of garments.

Lookit ol' Houndawg, waxin' poetic. xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

[AZGrizFan]

They could get eight, but I think it's pretty unlikely. As it currently stands, I project six, with Western Illinois and the loser of Northern Arizona/Weber State being out. In my latest projections, there are some really good teams that would miss out, including the aforementioned two, Massachusetts, William and Mary, Furman, Liberty and SC State. I think what is really interesting is the fact that there is really only one team that I think is a lock (maybe two, considering Montana's remaining schedule) despite a lot of teams being 6 or 7 and 1. Even Elon, Wofford and Villanova could run into trouble. Just for example, if Villanova loses to JMU, UNH and UD (you know they want revenge, even if they're in serious trouble), they'd be on the outside looking in. Just a lot left to play for for a lot of teams.

If Weber beats NAU, I agree with you. If NAU beats Weber.... xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx And if NAU beats Weber AND Montana..... xeekx xeekx xeekx xeekx xeekx

That would leave Weber @ 7-1 in conference, NAU undefeated (assuming they win the rest of their games), and Montana @ 6-2 but 10-2 overall...NAU gets the autobid, Weber goes 9-3, I think they and Montana get in as well.

[WrenFGun]

Weber is in trouble at 9-3, as they have 2 non-counters. It would, IMO, be hard to justify their inclusion over an 8-3 CAA/MVFC/SoCon team with 8 counters, particularly if their only quality win is Montana.

[AZGrizFan]

Weber is in trouble at 9-3, as they have 2 non-counters. It would, IMO, be hard to justify their inclusion over an 8-3 CAA/MVFC/SoCon team with 8 counters, particularly if their only quality win is Montana.

Weber would be 7-1 against those "counters". Plus, by the end of the year EWU will be considered a quality win as well. I think they're in @ 9-3 (but just barely, which is pathetic). xrolleyesx

[Saint3333]

This is the same story every year. Most teams have 5 games remaining and there will be upsets. That said, I don't think a four loss team has a chance this year.

The MEAC, OVC, Patriot, Southland, and GWFC will get one team each and the MVC will beat each other up allowing only 2 teams to be 9-3 or better.

That leaves 9 spots for the Big Sky, CAA, and SoCon who at this point would likely send 3 each.

[appfan2008]

This is the same story every year. Most teams have 5 games remaining and there will be upsets. That said, I don't think a four loss team has a chance this year.

The MEAC, OVC, Patriot, Southland, and GWFC will get one team each and the MVC will beat each other up allowing only 2 teams to be 9-3 or better.

That leaves 9 spots for the Big Sky, CAA, and SoCon who at this point would likely send 3 each.

It seems like that is the case every year but I suspect someone will sneak in at 8-4... App?

[Saint3333]

It seems like that is the case every year but I suspect someone will sneak in at 8-4... App?

Let's hope we don't lose 2 more games.

Here's a question. If a team from one of the "power" conferences has three quality wins, but then gets upset by a weaker conference rival could they get in? Let's say Furman beats Wofford and GSU but loses to ASU and then stumbles against Samford. Wofford finishes 9-3 with losses to Elon and Furman, and Furman is 8-4. Could Furman be selected over Wofford. This could work for the Big Sky, CAA, etc.

[mcveyrl]

It seems like that is the case every year but I suspect someone will sneak in at 8-4... App?

The way it's shaping up, I wouldn't want to take my chances.

If anybody gets in at 8-4, though, it's probably App.

[Reign of Terrier]

Let's hope we don't lose 2 more games.

Here's a question. If a team from one of the "power" conferences has three quality wins, but then gets upset by a weaker conference rival could they get in? Let's say Furman beats Wofford and GSU but loses to ASU and then stumbles against Samford. Wofford finishes 9-3 with losses to Elon and Furman, and Furman is 8-4. Could Furman be selected over Wofford. This could work for the Big Sky, CAA, etc.

No because Wofford would be higher in Conference standings (6-2) to (5-3). They might both get in pending on where App and Elon stand.

[Saint3333]

No because Wofford would be higher in Conference standings (6-2) to (5-3). They might both get in pending on where App and Elon stand.

Good point, let's say there is a scenario in the CAA where both have the same conference record. Thoughts?

[WrenFGun]

I'm not sure the conference record is the end all be all. While Villanova was in the CAA South and UNH in the North, UNH got in with a 4-4 conference record while 'Nova was left out with a 5-3 conference record. I don't know how much conference record means beyond automatic bids.