Playoff Bracketology-11/7

[TheValleyRaider]

Alright, I got a rather positive response from this thread last week, so here we go again. Important note to remember: All of this is done as things stand if the season ended today.

First, the 8 autobids. The conference leaders as of today. Tied records are broken by tiebreakers if applicable, overall record if not.
A-10: New Hampshire
Big Sky: Montana
Gateway: Southern Illinois
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Nicholls State

Next, the 8 at-large bids. Since the trend from the last few years seems to be 7 of the remaining top 8 from the GPI, plus one from outside of the group, I'll list the top 8, plus 1 other that I think will be selected instead.
1. Massachusetts
2. Texas State
3. Cal Poly
4. Georgia Southern
5. Montana State
6. Furman
7. Northern Iowa
8. Illinois State
+1. Coastal Carolina
I chose Coastal again because I'm still wagering the committee will reward them with the record they have against the schedule they have. In the end, I'll drop UNI for CCU. Basically ISU and UNI are tied for 7th, but ISU won head to head, so they get the nod.

This gives us our 16 Playoff Teams:
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Coastal Carolina
Eastern Illinois
Furman
Georgia Southern
Hampton
Illinois State
Lehigh
Massachusetts
Montana
Montana State
New Hampshire
Nicholls State
Southern Illinois
Texas State

With the playoff field set, we first get our Top 4 seeds.
1-New Hampshire (East)
2-Montana (West)
3-Appalachian State (South)
4-Hampton (Central)
I've switched the 2 and 3 seeds for this week. Montana won, and ASU lost. The fact that they lost to LSU is what kept them seeded, but UM did win, so I gave them #2.

Next, the other 4 home teams in the 1st Round.
Georgia Southern
Texas State
Montana State
Massachusetts
GSU was a no-brainer as far as their attendance goes. MSU had the best attendance of the rest of the group. TSU and UMass got the benefit of the doubt more from their high GPI. I avoided giving Furman a home game though because I didn't think all 3 SoCon teams would get them.

Now to match up the seeds with the other home teams:
New Hampshire with Georgia Southern
Montana with Texas State
Appalachian State with Montana State
Hampton with Massachusetts
This was fairly difficult to do. I worked to avoid matching up conference mates in the 2nd Round, while keeping some semblance of regionalization.

Finally, to send the remaining teams on the road. Regionalization is big here, as well as some GPI.
Cal Poly at Montana State
Coastal Carolina at Texas State
Eastern Illinois at Appalachian State
Furman at Hampton
Illinois State at New Hampshire
Lehigh at Massachusetts
Nicholls State at Montana
Southern Illinois at Georgia Southern
This was pretty tough. I tried to avoid rematches from the regular season, hence CCU going to TSU rather than ASU, and Cal Poly at MSU rather than UM.

So here's this week's bracket:
#1-New Hampshire
Illinois State

Georgia Southern
Southern Illinois

#4-Hampton
Furman

Massachusetts
Lehigh

#2-Montana
Nicholls State

Texas State
Coastal Carolina

#3-Appalachian State
Eastern Illinois

Montana State
Cal Poly

Overall, Furman got shafted if anyone did. This one was definately tougher to do than last weeks, I think. Questions, comments, concerns, etc. are welcome, as are people's own personal brackets. Maybe you'd pick a different +1 team, drop someone else, seed differently, have different home teams, whatever. See what you can come up with as well.

[youwouldno]

What happens with home games if a seed is knocked off? Is the bidding done beforehand?

Let's say your bracket happens, just for arguments sake. Then let's say Furman beats Hampton. How is the next location determined? Would a UMass win automatically put the game in MA, and if Lehigh won...???

That aspect is confusing me the most right now, though it doesn't effect the initial pairings.

Also, I doubt ISU is going to get a bid, unless some weird things happen. As of now I'd say they're out.

[PantherMan]

UNI does not have 7 D1 wins if we lose to SIU, who you have as your Gateway autobid. Also, assuming that SIU wins the autobid in the Gateway, they will all but be guaranteed a seed. ISU can at best be 7-4, and I just don't see the committee taking a 7-4 team for the playoffs, although this would be the year to set the precedent. All in all, nice and thought out observations. You're really gonna have some work to do with this in the next couple of weeks as teams are eliminated from contention/pull off upsets etc. Good luck the next couple weeks, and keep up the good work!

[WhereDoITypeMyUsername?]

What happens with home games if a seed is knocked off? Is the bidding done beforehand?



Something like this happened in last year's quarters. After Eastern WA knocked off #1 SIU in Overrateddale, and Sam Houston downed WKU in the first round, the bidding was opened early the next week (since the seeded team in that side of the bracket had fallen). Eastern had entered at #16, and Sam was the next-highest rated team on that side and had hosted the 'toppers the week before, but for some reason they couldn't even scratch together the minimum guarantee for the quarterfinals and had to come to coldass Spokane to play the Eagles. Didn't matter, as Dustin Long pulled out the win with zero time remaining anyways, but it was odd that Sam had to travel. What a game that was. Nevertheless, they wound up being gored in Missoula the following week.

Which brings me to the currently-proposed bracket above... can't complain about the idea of a Southland, Southland, SoCon schedule in Missoula in December (Nicholls, Texas State, AppSt). That's just about the dream scenario and couldn't get any better, unless you could also work in Hampton coming to Missoula to play at least one of those games somehow.

[UNHWildCats]

Alright, I got a rather positive response from this thread last week, so here we go again. Important note to remember: All of this is done as things stand if the season ended today

I turned this into an actual bracket so its easier for everyone to look at, hope you dont mind ValleyRaider

go here: http://www.geocities.com/tjliles04/bracketology.html

if it says page not available try again i entered this before i saved the page.

[bkrownd]

Massachusetts


I don't want any chickens counted before they hatch. Bubbles can burst damn quick. Let's first concentrate on making the next two difficult weekends into "W"s, THEN worry about what comes after Thxgiving.

Good goddess...I woke up yesterday and the Cornchuckers STILL lost to Kansas!!! For the first time in my lifetime! (and I ain't that young anymore) :bang: Maybe if I sleep on it again the world will finally return to normal...

[FlyYtown]

Dude the chances of ILSU making the playoffs are as slim as you could get. You don't even mention YSU in there. If they win according to our AD They are for sure whether its a home or away game.

How bout you read up on what you say before hand. UNI - SIU- YSU will be the only GFC Reps if the GFC gets 3 seeds.

[nmatsen]

Dude the chances of ILSU making the playoffs are as slim as you could get. You don't even mention YSU in there. If they win according to our AD They are for sure whether its a home or away game.

How bout you read up on what you say before hand. UNI - SIU- YSU will be the only GFC Reps if the GFC gets 3 seeds.

Not making any promises WKU has just as good as a chance of going on as you do, FIU is not that tough, they should realistically win that game, it all comes down to this Saturday for the Gateway, hell, there is still a way for the Gateway to only get 1 bid!

UNI Defeats SIU 11/12
WKU Defeats YSU 11/12
NDSU Defeats SIU 11/19
FIU Defeats WKU 11/19

That would put SIU, WKU, YSU matmatically eliminated with only 6 D-1 wins.
A 7-4 ISU team does not get in, if UNI does not get in last year then ISU don't this year!

[siugrad99]

SIU has 1 more game and even if they lose they have 6 D1 wins so if they take care of business at home verse NDSU then they have 7 D1 wins so your theory is flawed. How about we spend less time on making charts and graphs about what could happen and instead just let the players and teams decide it on the field. These threads are getting redundant and plentyful.

[OL FU]

Again, Good work. and it is tough to predict how all this plays out. I may be overly optimistic, but if FU is 9-2 I cannot see them traveling for the first game. Other seasons yes, this season no. Teams with only two losses will be rare.

[AppGuy04]

Again, Good work. and it is tough to predict how all this plays out. I may be overly optimistic, but if FU is 9-2 I cannot see them traveling for the first game. Other seasons yes, this season no. Teams with only two losses will be rare.

agreed

[Eaglegus2]

agreed


Any Team that wants a home game in the 1st round will have to bid more than the minimum. Home field advantage is important!! We will see how important by the size of their bids.

[TheValleyRaider]

Dude the chances of ILSU making the playoffs are as slim as you could get. You don't even mention YSU in there. If they win according to our AD They are for sure whether its a home or away game.

How bout you read up on what you say before hand. UNI - SIU- YSU will be the only GFC Reps if the GFC gets 3 seeds.

For the last several years, the GPI has correctly predicted 7 of the 8 at-large bids for the playoffs. With that in mind, I listed the top 8 in the GPI who did not have autobids, as well as a 9th team that would replace one of them. ISU was one of those top 8, and tied for that last spot with UNI. I dropped UNI due to head to head. I realize that there are still games to be played, but remember that this scenario is drawn up under the assumption that the season ended today. The real interesting part is seeing how the bracket would get laid out, and how that changes from week to week.

[OL FU]

Any Team that wants a home game in the 1st round will have to bid more than the minimum. Home field advantage is important!! We will see how important by the size of their bids.

We will just sale some Hollingsworth land. I'd say about one-half acre should do it. :D

[Eaglegus2]

We will just sale some Hollingsworth land. I'd say about one-half acre should do it. :D


Sounds good to me!!!!!!!!!! :nod:

[colgate13]

I realize that there are still games to be played, but remember that this scenario is drawn up under the assumption that the season ended today. The real interesting part is seeing how the bracket would get laid out, and how that changes from week to week.

People are missing this point. Leave Homer at home for once on this, OK?

Very good job TVR - and I'd even say that if you weren't a Colgate guy!

[Poly Pigskin]

I love seeing these sort of things, even though it's all hypothetical. Nice work.

Quick question though, you said you were trying to avoid rematches in the first round, but Poly played both UM and MSU. Are you saying it's not a "rematch" since the venue changed? Just curious, no complaints with the bracket. Actually I would love a trip to Bozeman given how well the early season game went for us.

[OL FU]

People are missing this point. Leave Homer at home for once on this, OK?

Very good job TVR - and I'd even say that if you weren't a Colgate guy!

13, for once I must disagree. I think most of the posters were adding to the analysis. (Some maybe homers), but one of the great things about Raider doing all the hard work is that we can help him refine his analysis by making meaningful comments. As you know, all of the details that are involved in such a prediciton are almost too much for one person to handle. Hoepfully Raider understood it as such.

Now, GIVE FURMAN A HOME GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

Thank you.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Overall, Furman got shafted if anyone did. This one was definately tougher to do than last weeks, I think. Questions, comments, concerns, etc. are welcome, as are people's own personal brackets. Maybe you'd pick a different +1 team, drop someone else, seed differently, have different home teams, whatever. See what you can come up with as well.

I agree with other posters that UNI and SIU both won't make it; and Ill. St won't make it either. I understand you're using the GPI, but I would try to inject the "realities" in there the best I could.

Let me put my own "bracket" together. The champs wil be the same, but my at-larges will be slightly different:

1. Massachusetts
2. Texas State
3. Cal Poly
4. Georgia Southern
5. Furman
6. Western Kentucky
7. Richmond
8. Coastal Carolina
+1 South Carolina St.

Montana St. got dropped since they would have to beat Montana and get the autobid; if they didn't, they'd sit at 7-4. I'm assuming YSU loses to WKU, and SIU beats NIU (purely by comparing GPI, this isn't a prediction of who's really going to win).

I'm going to give Coastal the 8th spot over SC St. The reason for this is Coastal won the head-to-head matchup.

UNH, Montana, App St., and Hampton are the seeds. Other home games in the 1st wound would be: Georgia Southern, UMass, Texas St. and WKU. I picked WKU since I don't think Cal Poly will have a home game, and all three SoCon teams won't have home games either. 2 years ago, WKU got a home game over SIU, so history is on my side for that possibly happening again.

So here's my version of the bracket:

Coastal Carolina at #1 UNH
Cal Poly at WKU

Furman at #2 Montana
Southern Illinois at Texas St.

Eastern Illinois at #3 App St.
Lehigh at UMass

Richmond at #4 Hampton
Nicholls St. at Georgia Southern

[OL FU]

I agree with other posters that UNI and SIU both won't make it; and Ill. St won't make it either. I understand you're using the GPI, but I would try to inject the "realities" in there the best I could.

Let me put my own "bracket" together. The champs wil be the same, but my at-larges will be slightly different:

1. Massachusetts
2. Texas State
3. Cal Poly
4. Georgia Southern
5. Furman
6. Western Kentucky
7. Richmond
8. Coastal Carolina
+1 South Carolina St.

Montana St. got dropped since they would have to beat Montana and get the autobid; if they didn't, they'd sit at 7-4. I'm assuming YSU loses to WKU, and SIU beats NIU (purely by comparing GPI, this isn't a prediction of who's really going to win).

I'm going to give Coastal the 8th spot over SC St. The reason for this is Coastal won the head-to-head matchup.

UNH, Montana, App St., and Hampton are the seeds. Other home games in the 1st wound would be: Georgia Southern, UMass, Texas St. and WKU. I picked WKU since I don't think Cal Poly will have a home game, and all three SoCon teams won't have home games either. 2 years ago, WKU got a home game over SIU, so history is on my side for that possibly happening again.

So here's my version of the bracket:

Coastal Carolina at #1 UNH
Cal Poly at WKU

Furman at #2 Montana
Southern Illinois at Texas St.

Eastern Illinois at #3 App St.
Lehigh at UMass

Richmond at #4 Hampton
Nicholls St. at Georgia Southern

Who ask you?

Different question, for WKU experts or any other experts. WKU has 3 losses, correct? They play YSU @ YSU? and then play Florida International, I think?
Does anybody know anything about Florida International? Is that possible win? If they are playing at YSU and International is a decent I-A, they could have difficulties.

[colgate13]

13, for once I must disagree. I think most of the posters were adding to the analysis.

I think most were too. I meant to respond to these sorts of comments:

"How bout you read up on what you say before hand."

I thought I sensed too much put down and not enough understanding of what he was trying to do.

[shakdaddy3]

I agree with other posters that UNI and SIU both won't make it; and Ill. St won't make it either. I understand you're using the GPI, but I would try to inject the "realities" in there the best I could.

Let me put my own "bracket" together. The champs wil be the same, but my at-larges will be slightly different:

1. Massachusetts
2. Texas State
3. Cal Poly
4. Georgia Southern
5. Furman
6. Western Kentucky
7. Richmond
8. Coastal Carolina
+1 South Carolina St.

Montana St. got dropped since they would have to beat Montana and get the autobid; if they didn't, they'd sit at 7-4. I'm assuming YSU loses to WKU, and SIU beats NIU (purely by comparing GPI, this isn't a prediction of who's really going to win).

I'm going to give Coastal the 8th spot over SC St. The reason for this is Coastal won the head-to-head matchup.

UNH, Montana, App St., and Hampton are the seeds. Other home games in the 1st wound would be: Georgia Southern, UMass, Texas St. and WKU. I picked WKU since I don't think Cal Poly will have a home game, and all three SoCon teams won't have home games either. 2 years ago, WKU got a home game over SIU, so history is on my side for that possibly happening again.

So here's my version of the bracket:

Coastal Carolina at #1 UNH
Cal Poly at WKU

Furman at #2 Montana
Southern Illinois at Texas St.

Eastern Illinois at #3 App St.
Lehigh at UMass

Richmond at #4 Hampton
Nicholls St. at Georgia Southern
Why no ILSU? We have beaten 3 teams in the tops 25 and 2 of which you have in your playoff scenario, WKU needs to win both of its final games in order to be at 7 D-I wins.

[FlyYtown]

6. Western Kentucky
I'm assuming YSU loses to WKU, and SIU beats NIU (purely by comparing GPI, this isn't a prediction of who's really going to win).




I am dying to know how W. Kentucky wins this Conference. They can only tie to win it and UNI would get in over them... YSU is also 5-0 at home and a very big crowd is expected; that assumption may very well be WRONG.

[TheValleyRaider]

I agree with other posters that UNI and SIU both won't make it; and Ill. St won't make it either. I understand you're using the GPI, but I would try to inject the "realities" in there the best I could.

Ahh, it seems you have missed the point a little, it seems. You're right, chances are UNI and SIU don't both make it. However, in my own defense, I didn't have both of them. And maybe ISU doesn't get in at 7-4. But they aren't 7-4 right now. They're still eligible for the postseason, as well as being part of that top 8. Therefore, they fit in. Remember, I'm not doing this as a prediction of the future. It's interesting to see how this changes from week to week with teams winning or losing. Last week, YSU had a home game and WKU was also in. Now both are on the outside.

[TheValleyRaider]

I love seeing these sort of things, even though it's all hypothetical. Nice work.

Quick question though, you said you were trying to avoid rematches in the first round, but Poly played both UM and MSU. Are you saying it's not a "rematch" since the venue changed? Just curious, no complaints with the bracket. Actually I would love a trip to Bozeman given how well the early season game went for us.

D'oh! :bang: :o Missed on Cal Poly already playing at MSU. Although, with either Montana school being the only option for the Mustangs, I'd still send them to Bozeman because they have a higher GPI than Nicholls, who then gets sent to #2 seeded Montana.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Ahh, it seems you have missed the point a little, it seems. You're right, chances are UNI and SIU don't both make it. However, in my own defense, I didn't have both of them. And maybe ISU doesn't get in at 7-4. But they aren't 7-4 right now. They're still eligible for the postseason, as well as being part of that top 8. Therefore, they fit in. Remember, I'm not doing this as a prediction of the future. It's interesting to see how this changes from week to week with teams winning or losing. Last week, YSU had a home game and WKU was also in. Now both are on the outside.

TVR, no need to defend yourself, I see precisely what you're doing. I very much like the scientific unbiased way you're picking the brackets, and I appreciate that! I also agree that it's interesting you yors changes from week to week (I especially like that Lehigh is in now instead of Lafayette! :D )

I guess I'm trying to bring in an alternative to yours, adding some more projections into the equations based on GPI, for example, Montana plays Montana St. and a Montana win puts MSU at 7-4, making them (IMO) unlikely to make it.

You could probably make my "assumptions" as follows. I'm assuming:
* 7-4 teams, no matter how strong a schedule, won't make it as an at-large
* if 2 playoff-bound teams play each other in the last 2 weeks, the higher-GPI team will win.

I think both of our approaches have merits. Actually, mine is basically your approach, but adding the two rules above.

[PantherMan]

Ahh, it seems you have missed the point a little, it seems. You're right, chances are UNI and SIU don't both make it. However, in my own defense, I didn't have both of them. And maybe ISU doesn't get in at 7-4. But they aren't 7-4 right now. They're still eligible for the postseason, as well as being part of that top 8. Therefore, they fit in. Remember, I'm not doing this as a prediction of the future. It's interesting to see how this changes from week to week with teams winning or losing. Last week, YSU had a home game and WKU was also in. Now both are on the outside.

If UNI beats SIU, then they will both make it. If not, only SIU gets in.

[wkuhillhound]

Who ask you?

Different question, for WKU experts or any other experts. WKU has 3 losses, correct? They play YSU @ YSU? and then play Florida International, I think?
Does anybody know anything about Florida International? Is that possible win? If they are playing at YSU and International is a decent I-A, they could have difficulties.

WKU defeated Florida International last year by double digits in Miami. This year they play them in Miami and the circumstances was much different than they are now. They didn't need to beat FIU to qualify but now they must. It is definitely a better chance for WKU to win than most I-A schools since they just began I-A play.

[TypicalTribe]

WKU defeated Florida International last year by double digits in Miami. This year they play them in Miami and the circumstances was much different than they are now. They didn't need to beat FIU to qualify but now they must. It is definitely a better chance for WKU to win than most I-A schools since they just began I-A play.

Florida International is terrible and Western Kentucky should probably be favored in the game. FIU is ranked on average about 30 spots below WKU in the component computer polls of the GPI.

[nmatsen]

If UNI beats SIU, then they will both make it. If not, only SIU gets in.

Don't forget SIU plays a tough NDSU game that no one really knows anythign about the last week of the season, lose the last two and SIU be going no where!

GO PANTHERS! ;)

[OL FU]

WKU defeated Florida International last year by double digits in Miami. This year they play them in Miami and the circumstances was much different than they are now. They didn't need to beat FIU to qualify but now they must. It is definitely a better chance for WKU to win than most I-A schools since they just began I-A play.

Thanks to both you and Tribe.

[ISUMatt]

ILSU may have a top 10 GPI as we are tied for 14th right now...I wouldnt count us out yet...When we win this weekend we will be eligible which is the 1st step!!!

[TypicalTribe]

ILSU may have a top 10 GPI as we are tied for 14th right now...I wouldnt count us out yet...When we win this weekend we will be eligible which is the 1st step!!!

I would put them 4th on the "outside looking in" list, behind CCU, Richmond, and SCSU. First and foremost, they need SIU to beat UNI so that they can tie for 3rd place in the GFC.

[ISUMatt]

I would put them 4th on the "outside looking in" list, behind CCU, Richmond, and SCSU. First and foremost, they need SIU to beat UNI so that they can tie for 3rd place in the GFC.

We need SIU over UNI
WKU over YSU, then
FIU over WKU

If those things happen and we beat 0-10 Indiana St, we will be the only team eligible (SIU doesnt count, they would have the Auto)

[nmatsen]

We need SIU over UNI
WKU over YSU, then
FIU over WKU

If those things happen and we beat 0-10 Indiana St, we will be the only team eligible (SIU doesnt count, they would have the Auto)

I remember an 0-10 team that all Northern Iowa had to do was beat them in 2001 to get a 1 or 2 seed, we got smoked! Oh yeah, it was Il State! (well they might have been 0-8 at the time but I think it was their only win of the year, and then we had to go to montana!)

[yosefcity]

Bracket Side 1
Coastal Carolina
#1 UNH (A10)

UMASS
Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley)

Cal Poly
#4 Montana (Big Sky)

GSU
SIU (Gateway)

Bracket Side 2

Richmond
#3 App State (SoCon)

YSU
Furman

WKU
Texas State

Lehigh
#2 Hampton (MEAC)

[TypicalTribe]

Bracket Side 1
Coastal Carolina
#1 UNH (A10)

UMASS
Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley)

Cal Poly
#4 Montana (Big Sky)

GSU
SIU (Gateway)

Bracket Side 2

Richmond
#3 App State (SoCon)

YSU
Furman

WKU
Texas State

Lehigh
#2 Hampton (MEAC)

Not bad, except I can't stop laughing about EIU getting a home game. Did you mean UMass should be hosting that game?

[Cincy App]

Bracket Side 1
Coastal Carolina
#1 UNH (A10)

UMASS
Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley)

Cal Poly
#4 Montana (Big Sky)

GSU
SIU (Gateway)

Bracket Side 2

Richmond
#3 App State (SoCon)

YSU
Furman

WKU
Texas State

Lehigh
#2 Hampton (MEAC)

The pairings will be more regionalized than that. If those teams represent the playoff field, you could bet on the following:

(1) Eastern Illinois would play at Southern Illinois
(2) Richmond would play at Hampton, and
(3) Coastal would play at a SoCon school

PS - For all those "betting" on the Hampton game, don't count Hampton out of a matchup against Richmond.

[nmatsen]

Bracket Side 1
Coastal Carolina
#1 UNH (A10)

UMASS
Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley)

Cal Poly
#4 Montana (Big Sky)

GSU
SIU (Gateway)

Bracket Side 2

Richmond
#3 App State (SoCon)

YSU
Furman

WKU
Texas State

Lehigh
#2 Hampton (MEAC)

YSU and WKU will not both be in the playoffs, they play this saturday and the loser will recieve their 4th loss!

[wildcat2]

Who wants to visit us in cool November and December?
Its still football weather for us!