Your conference playoff possibility summary

[URMite]

For now, just working with 3 losses or less as a criteria, here is what I see for the CAA.

JMU - 1 loss with only 2 games left against teams that meet the above criteria (VU, WM) so the odds of getting to 4 losses is minimal.

Nova - 1 loss with 2 games left against teams meeting the criteria (JMU, UNH) so hard to get to 4 losses as well.

UNH - 1 loss with 3 games left against teams meeting the criteria (VU, Umass, Maine) and would need to lose all 3 to get to 4 losses.

UMass - 3 losses with games against Maine then UNH left. They need to win both.

Maine - 3 losses with the UMass game then UNH left. They need both as well. So the UMass/Maine winner needs to beat UNH to stay at 3 losses.

Richmond - 3 losses with only season finale against W&M left but need to win out to stay at 3 losses.

W & M - 2 losses with last 2 games of the year at JMU then home vs UR. They must win 1 of 2 for 3 losses. Unless they beat JMU the UR/W&M loser will no longer have 3 or less losses.

Anyone else want to summarize the situation for teams in their conference to stay at <4 losses?

[PaladinFan]

Elon: 7-1- Still has Wofford and App State.

Wofford: 5-1- Still has Elon, App State, and Furman

App State: 5-2- Still has Elon, Wofford, and Furman

Furman 6-2- Still has Wofford and App State.

There will be a lot of movement in the SoCon over the coming weeks. It's entirely feasible that the SoCon could finish the season with four teams at 9-3 or better.

[appfan2008]

Elon: 7-1- Still has Wofford and App State.

Wofford: 5-1- Still has Elon, App State, and Furman

App State: 5-2- Still has Elon, Wofford, and Furman

Furman 6-2- Still has Wofford and App State.

There will be a lot of movement in the SoCon over the coming weeks. It's entirely feasible that the SoCon could finish the season with four teams at 9-3 or better.

It will get fun down the stretch here with so many games between the top teams!

[whitey]

It's entirely feasible that the SoCon could finish the season with four teams at 9-3 or better.

So if the SoCon gets 4 teams out of 9 in the playoffs (44%) will the bitching and moaning around here be worse than last year when the CAA put 5 of 12 in the playoffs (42%)?

[IndianaAppMan]

Elon: 7-1- Still has Wofford and App State.

Wofford: 5-1- Still has Elon, App State, and Furman

App State: 5-2- Still has Elon, Wofford, and Furman

Furman 6-2- Still has Wofford and App State.

There will be a lot of movement in the SoCon over the coming weeks. It's entirely feasible that the SoCon could finish the season with four teams at 9-3 or better.

Furman also still has Georgia Southern. That game should definitely serve as another intriguing chapter in that rivalry and would affect both teams' playoff chances.

Elon has Liberty to close its season, which could be dangerous. If Elon gets tripped up by ASU and/or Wofford, that game could very well set up as a matchup where only the winner makes the playoffs.

I don't think Georgia Southern has necessarily been eliminated yet. They've lost to Georgia and they've lost 3 SoCon games by 4 points.

[Thunderstruck84]

For the MVFC:

UNI 5-2 (3-1): 4 of last 5 on the road but not to tough of a schedule with WIU being the toughest of those. Starting QB out for a couple of weeks but they should be able to get to 9 wins or 10 if they can beat the Necks

SIU 4-2 (3-1): Tough games against WIU and SDSU remaining but both at home, have a big win against UNI in their pocket already so they should still have a one loss cushion and still be in good shape

WIU 5-2 (3-1): Big road win against NDSU already, will need to get one of the two against UNI and at SIU and they'll be in good shape

MSU 3-3 (2-1): Brutal stretch coming up, SIU @SDSU @UNI NDSU and they'll have to win them all to get in so not much of a shot

SDSU 3-4 (2-1): Will have to win out and get some help to get the autobid to get in, and they have to finish @SIU and @NDSU so they've got a tough road

[GSUhooligan]

Furman also still has Georgia Southern. That game should definitely serve as another intriguing chapter in that rivalry and would affect both teams' playoff chances.

Elon has Liberty to close its season, which could be dangerous. If Elon gets tripped up by ASU and/or Wofford, that game could very well set up as a matchup where only the winner makes the playoffs.

I don't think Georgia Southern has necessarily been eliminated yet. They've lost to Georgia and they've lost 3 SoCon games by 4 points.

I don't think we'll get in, but there's no doubt in my mind that we are one of the 16 best teams in the nation.

[URMite]

So if the SoCon gets 4 teams out of 9 in the playoffs (44%) will the bitching and moaning around here be worse than last year when the CAA put 5 of 12 in the playoffs (42%)?

What would really be interesting is if Socon does have 4 teams at 9-3 or better and... UMass & Richmond win out with W & M beating you guys so the CAA has 6 teams at 8-3 or better. That doesn't even include the MVC or Big Sky. So where would you start? xeyebrowx

[AZGrizFan]

NAU (6-1, 4-0) still has Weber, @ Montana, Montana State, @ EWU
Weber (6-2, 4-0) still has @ NAU, PSU, @ ISU, EWU
Montana (6-1, 2-1) still has @ UNC, NAU, @PSU, ISU, MSU

That's it. MSU and EWU have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs AGAIN.

Montana goes 5-0 in remaining games and ends up 11-1, 7-1.
Weber goes 4-0 in remaining games and ends up 10-2, 8-0
NAU goes 2-2 in remaining games (losses to UM and Weber) and ends up 8-3, 6-2.

Weber wins the autobid, UM gets a first round game at home and NAU is left wishing they'd scheduled SUU or UC Davis instead of New Mexico Highlands.

If NAU beats Weber this weekend and ends up 9-2 (7-1) and Weber ends up 9-3 (7-1) and Montana ends up 11-1 (7-1) WHO GETS THE AUTOBID?

[IaaScribe]

NAU scheduled and beat SUU.

[OL FU]

So if the SoCon gets 4 teams out of 9 in the playoffs (44%) will the bitching and moaning around here be worse than last year when the CAA put 5 of 12 in the playoffs (42%)?

Only if one of our teams is 7-4xnodx xsmiley_wix

[OL FU]

Furman also still has Georgia Southern. That game should definitely serve as another intriguing chapter in that rivalry and would affect both teams' playoff chances.

Elon has Liberty to close its season, which could be dangerous. If Elon gets tripped up by ASU and/or Wofford, that game could very well set up as a matchup where only the winner makes the playoffs.

I don't think Georgia Southern has necessarily been eliminated yet. They've lost to Georgia and they've lost 3 SoCon games by 4 points.

In my opinion, the only way a 3 loss SoCon team (I mean conference losses gets in) is if the chamption has two losses or there is no clear top three and that pertains to all teams. The other possibility is something like last year where UNH got in because there really wasn't a good 7 D1 win alternative. But if ASU, Elon, Wofford are clearing sitting in the top three spots in the SoCon, a three loss in conference team is not going to make it.

[AZGrizFan]

NAU scheduled and beat SUU.

Mea Culpa. :o :o :o :o

Maybe they'll wish they could have played them twice!

OK...how about Texas State or SFA? xcoolx :o

[IndianaAppMan]

So if the SoCon gets 4 teams out of 9 in the playoffs (44%) will the bitching and moaning around here be worse than last year when the CAA put 5 of 12 in the playoffs (42%)?

Yes.

I doubt 4 SoCon teams would be able to make it, though, due to the mathematics of it all. There's just too many chances that among App, Elon, Wofford, and Furman, one of them will end up with fewer than 7 D-1 wins. Besides, even if there are four teams to reach 7, or even 8 wins, a total of three SoCon teams probably cannot get at-large nods. Here's why:

There are 8 at-large spots.

The CAA will get at least two of the eight at-large spots (presumably the loser of the JMU-Nova game and either UNH, W&M, or Richmond).

The Mo. Valley will get at least one.

The Big Sky will get at least one.

Cal Poly will get one. It's easy to forget that they take one of the at-larges, so that kind of makes for a wild card.

That leaves three at-larges. In spite of how many teams the SoCon has with solid records, I don't see the SoCon getting all three of the remaining at-larges. Liberty, a fourth CAA team, and a third Mo. Valley or Big Sky team will prove to be tough competition.

Now, if the SoCon doesn't get three in this year, I would be a bit surprised, but I think that's mostly up to the teams themselves at this point.

(Side note: Elon may very well have ensured itself a playoff spot by the time the Liberty game rolls around, but if Elon beats Liberty, it could open up the doors for another SoCon team, or a team from another conference, for that matter.)

[brownbear]

Brown - won't make the playoffs

Columbia - won't make the playoffs

Cornell - won't make the playoffs

Dartmouth - won't make the playoffs

Harvard - won't make the playoffs

Penn - won't make the playoffs

Princeton - won't make the playoffs

Yale - won't make the playoffs

[AZGrizFan]

Yes.

I doubt 4 SoCon teams would be able to make it, though, due to the mathematics of it all. There's just too many chances that among App, Elon, Wofford, and Furman, one of them will end up with fewer than 7 D-1 wins. Besides, even if there are four teams to reach 7, or even 8 wins, a total of three SoCon teams probably cannot get at-large nods. Here's why:

The CAA will get at least two of the eight at-large spots (presumably the loser of the JMU-Nova game and either UNH, W&M, or Richmond), the Mo. Valley at least one, the Big Sky at least one, and Cal Poly will get one. That leaves three at-larges. In spite of how many teams the SoCon has with solid records, I don't see the SoCon getting all three of the remaining at-larges against a national competition that will include a pretty solid Liberty team, a fourth CAA team, or another team from the Mo. Valley or Big Sky.

Now, if the SoCon doesn't get three in this year, I would be a bit surprised, but I think that's mostly up to the teams themselves at this point.

(Side note: Elon may very well have ensured itself a playoff spot by the time the Liberty game rolls around, but if Elon beats Liberty, it could open up the doors for another SoCon team, or a team from another conference, for that matter.)

But, per the scenario I painted earlier in the thread, if the BSC has three co-champs @ 7-1, with losses only to each other (UM over NAU, NAU over Weber, Weber over UM), and overall records of 11-1, 9-3, 9-3, how do they decide who gets the autobid and who gets the at larges and who gets left out?

[Grizzaholic]

But, per the scenario I painted earlier in the thread, if the BSC has three co-champs @ 7-1, with losses only to each other (UM over NAU, NAU over Weber, Weber over UM), and overall records of 11-1, 9-3, 9-3, how do they decide who gets the autobid and who gets the at larges and who gets left out?

The West will get screwed this year AZ, count on it.

[IndianaAppMan]

But, per the scenario I painted earlier in the thread, if the BSC has three co-champs @ 7-1, with losses only to each other (UM over NAU, NAU over Weber, Weber over UM), and overall records of 11-1, 9-3, 9-3, how do they decide who gets the autobid and who gets the at larges and who gets left out?

The 11-1 team gets the tiebreaker and autobid. For the 9-3 teams, if only one can get in, I would look at who won head to head first but also consider non-conference opponents. The committee would probably look at which team puts more butts in the seats as well, whether that's fair or not.

[IndianaAppMan]

In my opinion, the only way a 3 loss SoCon team (I mean conference losses gets in) is if the chamption has two losses or there is no clear top three and that pertains to all teams. The other possibility is something like last year where UNH got in because there really wasn't a good 7 D1 win alternative. But if ASU, Elon, Wofford are clearing sitting in the top three spots in the SoCon, a three loss in conference team is not going to make it.

With Cal Poly taking one of the 8 at-large spots and with many teams having a 12-game schedule, thus more chances at 8 wins, I'd be stunned if a 7-win team gets into the playoffs.

In other words, what a tough year for Georgia Southern.

[Big Dawg]

Hampton or SCSU will receive the auto bid

FAMU, with no more losses and a 10-2 record, may sneak in with an at-large birth. That loss to DSU really hurts now

This is the only hope for the MEAC

[TheValleyRaider]

Bucknell: 4-2, 1-0
Colgate
at Holy Cross
Lafayette
at Lehigh
Fordham
Arguably the longest shot, as their remaining PL opponents could all be better than them. Still a likely spoiler, if not a very darkhorse

Colgate: 5-2, 1-0
at Bucknell
Lafayette
at Lehigh
Holy Cross
Getting Lafayette and Holy Cross at home should help, but Bucknell and Lehigh are not picnic roadtrips for the 'Gate

Fordham: 3-3, 0-2
Lafayette
Marist
at Holy Cross
Georgetown
at Bucknell
Rams are in a deep hole at 0-2, but still very talented. More likely to ruin another's season than truly make their own at this point

Georgetown: 1-5, 0-3
at Richmond
Lehigh
Marist
at Fordham
Even in the ultra-tight PL, the Hoyas appear to be out of the running

Holy Cross: 3-3, 1-0
Lehigh
Bucknell
Fordham
at Lafayette
at Colgate
The Crusaders have been a tough-luck team, arguably better than their 3-3 record indicates. They benefit from getting the next 3 at home, but consecutive trips to Easton and Hamilton could be too much. Or they're just a better team, and win out

Lafayette: 5-1, 1-0
at Fordham
at Colgate
at Bucknell
Holy Cross
Lehigh
Leopards own the best OOC win for the League this year, but it won't help them when travelling to the Bronx or to their traditional PL nemesis Colgate. Getting HC at home it good, and if they can get through those 3 road games (in particular Colgate), the title is their's for the taking

Lehigh: 2-4, 1-0
at Holy Cross
at Georgetown
Colgate
Bucknell
at Lafayette
Lehigh is a team I'm really not sure how good they are. Every one of these games should be very much winnable for the team that stomped Fordham, but has looked awful at other times. My guess is they're too inconsistent to win them all, but they could surprise

My pick for PL champ is Colgate, and while that admittedly is a homer pick, they have as good a shot as any of the 1-0 teams. I think their schedule and Lafayette's set up the best for a run through the League. Right now it's a horserace so pick your pony and ride them down the stretch

Most likely scenario: the PL only gets their autobid

Best-case for a two-bid league: Lafayette finishes 9-2, only loss to the League Champ, and with the Liberty win tries to make a case for an at-large. Will rely heavily on other conferences eating their own over the next month, though by how much I'm not sure. Still, a long-shot at best

[Screamin_Eagle174]

NAU (6-1, 4-0) still has Weber, @ Montana, Montana State, @ EWU
Weber (6-2, 4-0) still has @ NAU, PSU, @ ISU, EWU
Montana (6-1, 2-1) still has @ UNC, NAU, @PSU, ISU, MSU

That's it. MSU and EWU have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs AGAIN.

Montana goes 5-0 in remaining games and ends up 11-1, 7-1.
Weber goes 4-0 in remaining games and ends up 10-2, 8-0
NAU goes 2-2 in remaining games (losses to UM and Weber) and ends up 8-3, 6-2.

Weber wins the autobid, UM gets a first round game at home and NAU is left wishing they'd scheduled SUU or UC Davis instead of New Mexico Highlands.

If NAU beats Weber this weekend and ends up 9-2 (7-1) and Weber ends up 9-3 (7-1) and Montana ends up 11-1 (7-1) WHO GETS THE AUTOBID?

I like this scenario better: NAU beats Weber and Montana, but loses to MSU and EWU. EWU wins out. That leaves Weber, UM, EWU and NAU with a 6-2 conference record. Among the 4, UM and Weber would be 1-2 against the others, whereas EWU and NAU would be 2-1. EWU would win the tiebreaker for the Autobid due to beating NAU. Montana would get an at large bid, and NAU or Weber possibly another. xrulesx

[BEAR]

Southland possibilities:

Team SC Overall
Central Arkansas 2-0 6-1 Not playoff eligible due to transition.
Stephen F. Austin 2-0 4-3 If they win out, they just might.
McNeese State 1-1 4-2 Same here
Northwestern State 1-1 4-3 and here
Southeastern Louisiana 1-1 4-3 and here..but they face UCA saturday.
Texas State 1-1 4-3 here too..but tough games ahead.
Sam Houston State 0-2 2-3 They're out unless others lose 2 games.
Nicholls State 0-2 0-4 Same here.

Southland might have a 2 loss team make the playoffs as AQ, but not likely an at large spot. If UCA runs the table, that would leave McNeese, SELA, NSU and SFA with possibly 2 losses each...in other words...



WHO KNOWS!!!

...but we know UCA won't be there. xmadx xlolx

[OL FU]

Best-case for a two-bid league: Lafayette finishes 9-2, only loss to the League Champ, and with the Liberty win tries to make a case for an at-large. Will rely heavily on other conferences eating their own over the next month, though by how much I'm not sure. Still, a long-shot at best[/QUOTE]

I like that scenario because that means Elon beats Liberty and if they do so in a convincing fashion (not saying they will) then it sets up a good shot for the SoCon to get that team in that might otherwise be left out.

[already123]

The west WILL get screwed...

Anyone who says that NAU,Weber, or Montana is not one of the top 16 teams in the country should be shot!
All three teams (as long as they take care of business at home) should make the playoffs no matter what the seed may be.

Hey, BSC teams love playing the #1 seed on the road...we just need a shot

[appfan2008]

The west WILL get screwed...

Anyone who says that NAU,Weber, or Montana is not one of the top 16 teams in the country should be shot!
All three teams (as long as they take care of business at home) should make the playoffs no matter what the seed may be.
Hey, BSC teams love playing the #1 seed on the road...we just need a shot

should is a pretty strong word right there... maybe could would be better...

[mcveyrl]

What I've gathered from this thread is that the playoffs will have 34 participants... xlolx

[URMite]

I don't think we'll get in, but there's no doubt in my mind that we are one of the 16 best teams in the nation.

Hey, maybe if we end up with 4 losses as well and neither receive an at-large we should play each other in a consolation game.

[crusader11]

Good analysis Valley Raider. Here is how I broke down Holy Cross' next 5 games over on the Crossports board:

Here is how I would break it down in terms of our chance in winning our next 5 games:

vs. Lehigh 70%...earlier in the year I would have said this was almost a sure win, but the Mountain Hawks have played quite well as of late. Beating Fordham by 20+ and coming up just 3 points short against Harvard. Also, throw into account that we beat LU by 49 last year and this becomes a pretty tough game as LU will undoubtedly be seeking vengenace from last year's thrashing.

vs. Bucknell 95%...something really would have to go wrong for us to lose to the Bison; they only beat Georgetown by 3. Also, don't let their 4-2 record fool you, they have compiled wins against teams from the NEC (RMU, Duquesne, and then of course juggernaut Marist).

vs. Fordham 65%...a very difficult team to figure out this year. They were the PL champs last year and returned virtually everyone, yet they have not been seeing results. After getting trounced by Lehigh and losing to Colgate, they will be forced to win out in the PL to even have the slimmest of chances at winning the league. Their win vs. Yale this past weekend shows me that they are still capable of beating anyone in the league, yet, I still like the 'Saders at home.

@ Lafayette 45%...I really think this game is a toss up, but I will give the edge to Lafayette based on the home field advantage. They have played some very mediocre football teams thus far (Marist, Columbia, Georgetown) beating them all, but not by the widest of margins. Their offense has appeared to gotten it together, as seen in their HUGE win at Liberty (#14 in the country) this past weekend, yet it doesn't scare me. They have an average QB and receivers; it is their defense that may cause us fits. Yes, they may even find a way to slow down Dom and co. Andy Romans, a candidate for the Buchanan Award (best defensive player in the country) is outstanding, as are their D backs. With that being said, I have a good feeling in this one. Dom had his "coming out party" at Lafayette his sophomore year, and what better way to put the Leopards out of the PL title race by beating them at Fisher.

@ Colgate 60%...I really, really like our chances against the Raiders this year. Like us, to an extent, they are one-dimensional on offense (Jordan Scott left, Jordan Scott right). This year, however, our run defense has been superb. The interior D line, anchored by Juice Carson, Brian Walwyn, Steve Buller, and Don Matheney, really has been great against the run (only giving up 75 yards a game). Although they have an excellent receiver in Pat Simonds, one of the best in the league, I think the D backs will find a way to contain one receiver, whereas Colgate has to deal with 4 or 5 solid receivers on any given play. Also, it should be known that Jordan Scott was injured this past weekend. I am sure that he will be back for the game against HC, but he may not be the same (Mike McCleod certainly was not the same this year against HC as he was last year).

So, there you have it. I could envision us going 1-1 against Lafayette and Colgate, but I think 1 league loss may be good enough to win the league (depending on the tie-breaker situation). I really don't see any team running the table in the league this year.

[AZGrizFan]

I like this scenario better: NAU beats Weber and Montana, but loses to MSU and EWU. EWU wins out. That leaves Weber, UM, EWU and NAU with a 6-2 conference record. Among the 4, UM and Weber would be 1-2 against the others, whereas EWU and NAU would be 2-1. EWU would win the tiebreaker for the Autobid due to beating NAU. Montana would get an at large bid, and NAU or Weber possibly another. xrulesx

Yeah, and the earth is going to stop spinning and start going the other direction. ;) You'd better HOPE something psychotic like this happens....it's the ONLY way your Eags get in....stupid A.D. xbawlingx

[crusader11]

Also, forgot to pose this question, ValleyRaider already touched on it. Would Lafayette, with a 9-2 record (4-1 OOC and 5-1 in the PL) get a bid to the playoffs if they didn't win the PL?

If Liberty were to win out, and have their only loss be to Lafayette, I would think Lafayette would have a pretty compelling argument in getting into the playoffs. Thoughts?

[james_lawfirm]

I don't think we'll get in, but there's no doubt in my mind that we are one of the 16 best teams in the nation.


I'll agree with that.

[mcveyrl]

Also, forgot to pose this question, ValleyRaider already touched on it. Would Lafayette, with a 9-2 record (4-1 OOC and 5-1 in the PL) get a bid to the playoffs if they didn't win the PL?

If Liberty were to win out, and have their only loss be to Lafayette, I would think Lafayette would have a pretty compelling argument in getting into the playoffs. Thoughts?

I think Lafayette's best case for an at large bid is that they have gone head to head and beat a team that they may be in direct competition with for a spot.

If there was one at-large left and it came down to Lafayette v. Liberty, it's a no brainer for the committee.

[Ronbo]

NAU (6-1, 4-0) still has Weber, @ Montana, Montana State, @ EWU
Weber (6-2, 4-0) still has @ NAU, PSU, @ ISU, EWU
Montana (6-1, 2-1) still has @ UNC, NAU, @PSU, ISU, MSU

That's it. MSU and EWU have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs AGAIN.

Montana goes 5-0 in remaining games and ends up 11-1, 7-1.
Weber goes 4-0 in remaining games and ends up 10-2, 8-0
NAU goes 2-2 in remaining games (losses to UM and Weber) and ends up 8-3, 6-2.

Weber wins the autobid, UM gets a first round game at home and NAU is left wishing they'd scheduled SUU or UC Davis instead of New Mexico Highlands.

If NAU beats Weber this weekend and ends up 9-2 (7-1) and Weber ends up 9-3 (7-1) and Montana ends up 11-1 (7-1) WHO GETS THE AUTOBID?


I think Montana would in that scenario. 1st tie breaker would be eliminated. 2nd tie breaker would be eliminated. 3rd tie breaker would kick in which is highest GPI.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I think Lafayette's best case for an at large bid is that they have gone head to head and beat a team that they may be in direct competition with for a spot.

If there was one at-large left and it came down to Lafayette v. Liberty, it's a no brainer for the committee.

Right now I don't see either team getting an at-large based on other conferences + Cal Poly. There will be some sore losers left out of the field this year, but I don't think we'll have many surprises either.

[ElonPride]

I don't think we'll get in, but there's no doubt in my mind that we are one of the 16 best teams in the nation.

xnodx

[TheValleyRaider]

Best-case for a two-bid league: Lafayette finishes 9-2, only loss to the League Champ, and with the Liberty win tries to make a case for an at-large. Will rely heavily on other conferences eating their own over the next month, though by how much I'm not sure. Still, a long-shot at best

You just keep blowing people out so our loss back in September doesn't look so bad xthumbsupx

I'll be rooting for you guys up in Boone xnodx xthumbsupx


@ Colgate 60%...I really, really like our chances against the Raiders this year. Like us, to an extent, they are one-dimensional on offense (Jordan Scott left, Jordan Scott right). This year, however, our run defense has been superb. The interior D line, anchored by Juice Carson, Brian Walwyn, Steve Buller, and Don Matheney, really has been great against the run (only giving up 75 yards a game). Although they have an excellent receiver in Pat Simonds, one of the best in the league, I think the D backs will find a way to contain one receiver, whereas Colgate has to deal with 4 or 5 solid receivers on any given play. Also, it should be known that Jordan Scott was injured this past weekend. I am sure that he will be back for the game against HC, but he may not be the same (Mike McCleod certainly was not the same this year against HC as he was last year).

Not a bad analysis on the season-ending matchup. Along with Lafayette, I think we're the 3 best teams in the League, though I'd be a fool to count out Lehigh just yet. Actually, our offense this year is Scott left, Scott right, Sullivan up the middle, which is much harder to defend than it sounds :D. Remember that Cornell thought they had a pretty good run defense, and Eachus gashed them for 240 yards in less than 3 quarters. It's not just the backs, or O-Line is very good this year. A bunch of seniors though, which worries me some for '09. Oh well, we'll worry about that whenever '08 finishes

In truth, I think our pass defense is actually pretty strong, and if we can get our guys back from injury, we have have the DBs to run with you. Of course, those numbers could be skewed because teams keep running the ball at will against us xoopsx

It is a very intriguing matchup, though I like that 1) we're the ground control team that can put points on the board, so we can own the clock and keep scoring pace, and 2) it's in Hamilton. Looking forward to it xnodx (but not looking past Lafayette...or Lehigh...or Bucknell)

[gbhmt]

But, per the scenario I painted earlier in the thread, if the BSC has three co-champs @ 7-1, with losses only to each other (UM over NAU, NAU over Weber, Weber over UM), and overall records of 11-1, 9-3, 9-3, how do they decide who gets the autobid and who gets the at larges and who gets left out?

Montana would get in. They've got the best overall record, and an autobid would pretty much indefinitely result in a home game, and NCAA likes giving UM home playoff games.

[bigchocolate]

Hampton or SCSU will receive the auto bid

FAMU, with no more losses and a 10-2 record, may sneak in with an at-large birth. That loss to DSU really hurts now

This is the only hope for the MEAC

a 2 loss Hampton team with losses @ SIU (6 pts) and @ SC State (1-7 Pts Game to be played Saturday) must be considered.

[gbhmt]

I like this scenario better: NAU beats Weber and Montana, but loses to MSU and EWU. EWU wins out. That leaves Weber, UM, EWU and NAU with a 6-2 conference record. Among the 4, UM and Weber would be 1-2 against the others, whereas EWU and NAU would be 2-1. EWU would win the tiebreaker for the Autobid due to beating NAU. Montana would get an at large bid, and NAU or Weber possibly another. xrulesx

That would be nothing short of remarkable. You could dish out some pretty big I-told-you-so's around here.

[joecooll6]

For now, just working with 3 losses or less as a criteria, here is what I see for the CAA.

JMU - 1 loss with only 2 games left against teams that meet the above criteria (VU, WM) so the odds of getting to 4 losses is minimal.

Nova - 1 loss with 2 games left against teams meeting the criteria (JMU, UNH) so hard to get to 4 losses as well.

UNH - 1 loss with 3 games left against teams meeting the criteria (VU, Umass, Maine) and would need to lose all 3 to get to 4 losses.

UMass - 3 losses with games against Maine then UNH left. They need to win both.

Maine - 3 losses with the UMass game then UNH left. They need both as well. So the UMass/Maine winner needs to beat UNH to stay at 3 losses.

Richmond - 3 losses with only season finale against W&M left but need to win out to stay at 3 losses.

W & M - 2 losses with last 2 games of the year at JMU then home vs UR. They must win 1 of 2 for 3 losses. Unless they beat JMU the UR/W&M loser will no longer have 3 or less losses.

Anyone else want to summarize the situation for teams in their conference to stay at <4 losses?

You assume none of these teams will be upset.

[BEAR]

What no Southland brethren to comment on the situation? ...maybe fear has set in with each team facing the possibility of not making the playoffs already after just 2 games...xlolx

[joecooll6]

Consider this realistic scenario.

SIU wins out

UNI loses at @ Western Illinois and wins out

Western wins out except SIU

That leaves SIU at 10-2, 6-1
Western is 8-3, 5-2
UNI is 9-3, 5-2

This would make UNI, with losses to SIU and WIU squarely the third team in the Valley. Does a 9-3 Panther team not get in?

Also could have WIU beat SIU

Western 6-1, 9-2
SIU 5-2, 9-3
UNI 5-2, 9-3

Still works.

[bkrownd]

UMass - 3 losses with games against Maine then UNH left. They need to win both.


After the Spideys ground the Minutemen's faces into the fieldturf on that last drive I have a hard time seeing the Minutemen doing anything other than studying for chemistry exams in the postseason. :(

[crusader11]

After the Spideys ground the Minutemen's faces into the fieldturf on that last drive I have a hard time seeing the Minutemen doing anything other than studying for chemistry exams in the postseason. :(

Wait just a minute. Chemistry? Don't you mean something like Hospitality & Tourism Management or Building Materials & Wood Technology? xlolx

[Go...gate]

Best-case for a two-bid league: Lafayette finishes 9-2, only loss to the League Champ, and with the Liberty win tries to make a case for an at-large. Will rely heavily on other conferences eating their own over the next month, though by how much I'm not sure. Still, a long-shot at best

I like that scenario because that means Elon beats Liberty and if they do so in a convincing fashion (not saying they will) then it sets up a good shot for the SoCon to get that team in that might otherwise be left out.[/QUOTE]

Would be nice to see the PL get two teams in....xcoachx xtwocentsx

[URMite]

You assume none of these teams will be upset.

Of course! That's what I've been doing all season. Doesn't it always work out that way? xrulesx

Actually I started the season predicting that the top 25 would only lose to FBS, and other top 25 away. Wait, have I been wrong on a game or 2?xbawlingx :p

[kirkblitz]

Big South

Coastal-ccu is currently 4-4 and can go at max 8-4. 1 loss to a bcs top 10 school and 2 dropped by 5 points or less. the VMI SMACKDOWN with like a 30 point difference will squash that though.

Liberty- They have a ok chance, they can be at most 11-1 at the end of the season is they beat elon but that loss to lafayette may have doomed them. Plus they had either 1 or 2 D2 games i cant remember.

GW- no chance

CSU-eliminated

Presby-not eligible

VMI-Eliminated

SB-eliminated

[Reign of Terrier]

If Wofford beats everyone, App beats everyone but Elon, and Elon beats everyone but App and WC we'll have a 10-1 team and a couple of 9-3 teams. That might make GSU chances look better.

Bottom line: GSU still has a small chance of getting in.

[JohnStOnge]

What no Southland brethren to comment on the situation? ...maybe fear has set in with each team facing the possibility of not making the playoffs already after just 2 games...xlolx

Stephen F. Austin controls its own destiny. The Lumberjacks are 2-0 in conference and are the automatic bid if they win the rest of their conference games. But if they don't win out they won't have 7 Division I wins and could be in trouble.

Texas State is in good position with one conference loss to inelligible UCA but may not be in complete control of their own destiny. I'm not sure of what the tiebreaker would be if they finish in a three way tie with Central Arkansas and McNeese for the title with 1 loss (i.e., a situation where they beat McNeese, UCA beat them, and McNeese beat UCA).

McNeese may need for Texas State to lose another one in order to be in complete control of its own destiny in terms of the automatic bid. But the Cowboys have a reasonably good shot at an at large bid if they go unbeaten the rest of the way to finish 9-2 overall and 7-1 against other FCS teams.

Southeastern Louisiana and Northwestern State are still very much in the race for the automatic bid with one conference loss apiece and Central Arkansas inelligible. Best case for Southeastern is to win out while SFA loses two conference games. Best case for Northwestern State is to win out while Southeastern loses one more conference game. Both are very much alive. Both can also get to 7 Division I wins if they win out.

I'm not sure about how Southeastern's wins over transitionals South Dakota and North Dakota are viewed by the committee. But if they're viewed as D-I wins and Southeastern wins out the Lions would finish 9-3 against D-Is with two of the losses being to FBS schools. If not they would finish 7-3 against D-I with two of the losses being against D-I schools (i.e., 7-1 against other FCS). So I don't think they're out of it as far as at large bids go. If they finish 9-3 overall with two losses being to Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech I think they'd be in pretty good shape depending on what happens around the rest of the country.

Northwestern State can finish 7-3 against other D-Is and 7-2 against other FCS. A long shot but not completely out of the realm of possibility for an at large. Not likely. In fact very unlikely. But not impossible.

Sam Houston State and Nicholls State are not completely out of it but are definitely long shots at 0-2 each in conference right now. A lot would have to happen for either to get the automatic bid and neither has any shot at an at large.

[JohnStOnge]

By the way, I think Stephen F. Austin is very dangerous. I think it's a team that's getting better as the season goes on and it acclimates to new systems. I think it may be one of those things where playing SFA early in the season and playing them late in the season might be entirely different things. Big game between SFA and Texas State this Saturday.

[joecooll6]

Of course! That's what I've been doing all season. Doesn't it always work out that way? xrulesx

Actually I started the season predicting that the top 25 would only lose to FBS, and other top 25 away. Wait, have I been wrong on a game or 2?xbawlingx :p

None of our games, to be fair.

[joecooll6]

I know its a down year but there's very very little Valley representation on this board.

[OVC Fan]

The OVC is actually "up" this year as opposed to previous years. There are 4 teams that have a shot with really 3 teams having a great shot.

Tennessee State (6-1, 3-0) ... Has SEMO, TTU, EIU, JSU and MUR left
Jacksonville State (5-2, 3-1) ... Has UTM, APSU, TTU, TSU left
UT Martin (6-2, 4-1) ... Has JSU, Auburn, SEMO, EKU left (needs to win out FCS games b/c they played 2 non-DI's)
Eastern Kentucky (4-3, 3-1) ... Has EIU, SEMO, MUR, UTM left

Depending on the outcome of Thursday's ESPNU game (JSU at UT Martin), I think it'll come down to TSU and JSU, with the possibility of one being 10-2, 7-1 and the other being 9-2, 7-1.

[Cocky]

The OVC is actually "up" this year as opposed to previous years. There are 4 teams that have a shot with really 3 teams having a great shot.

Tennessee State (6-1, 3-0) ... Has SEMO, TTU, EIU, JSU and MUR left
Jacksonville State (5-2, 3-1) ... Has UTM, APSU, TTU, TSU left
UT Martin (6-2, 4-1) ... Has JSU, Auburn, SEMO, EKU left (needs to win out FCS games b/c they played 2 non-DI's)
Eastern Kentucky (4-3, 3-1) ... Has EIU, SEMO, MUR, UTM left

Depending on the outcome of Thursday's ESPNU game (JSU at UT Martin), I think it'll come down to TSU and JSU, with the possibility of one being 10-2, 7-1 and the other being 9-2, 7-1.

EKU looks pretty good to finish with only one loss.

[joecooll6]

Anyone else notice that the way its shaping up we could be in for a lot of angry people at the end of the year, theres a lot of parity this year. By the end of the year we could legitimately have 3 Big Sky teams, Liberty, 5-6 CAA teams, Cal Poly,2 MEAC teams, 3 Valley teams, 3 OVC teams, 2 Patriot League teams, 4 SoCon teams and a Southland team with legitimate playoff resumes! You could see upwards toward 24 teams that have 3 losses or less and solid resumes. This could get ugly.

[JmuSkinsfan]

Do Furman and Elon not play each other? I could have sworn in another thread someone said Furman's 2 losses so far have been to FBS teams ... but no one listed Furman and Elon. Do the Socon teams not all play each other?

[Lionsrking]

I'm not sure about how Southeastern's wins over transitionals South Dakota and North Dakota are viewed by the committee. But if they're viewed as D-I wins and Southeastern wins out the Lions would finish 9-3 against D-Is with two of the losses being to FBS schools. If not they would finish 7-3 against D-I with two of the losses being against D-I schools (i.e., 7-1 against other FCS). So I don't think they're out of it as far as at large bids go. If they finish 9-3 overall with two losses being to Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech I think they'd be in pretty good shape depending on what happens around the rest of the country.


For scenario purposes, we could still lose to UCA and be in pretty good shape, if we win the rest of them and UCA runs the table...we would finish 5-2 with head-to-head wins over everybody except UCA and SFA...and I don't see SFA winning three of their last five.

[GolfingGriz]

After reading through this thread, we are really gonna need some upsets over the last 5 weeks. Without upsets the deserving number of teams by conference are as follows...(note: even though some conferences have tight races I will consider some leagues to only have one bid. Example: Southland, MEAC...)
CAA maybe as many as six
Big Sky Very possibly three
Southern As many as four
MVC As many as three
The other four autobids
Cal Poly
Liberty?
Another two or three teams from the other autobid conferences.

That leaves up to 24 very deserving teams without upsets.

This is where teams like EWU, Deleware, NDSU, SDSU, etc. need to do there part and make it easier on the selection committee.

[elon77]

Do Furman and Elon not play each other? I could have sworn in another thread someone said Furman's 2 losses so far have been to FBS teams ... but no one listed Furman and Elon. Do the Socon teams not all play each other?

Elon beat Furman 30-10. They did indeed play. At least Elon did. Sorry Purple People Eaters, I just had to throw that in. Sorry.

[OL FU]

Elon beat Furman 30-10. They did indeed play. At least Elon did. Sorry Purple People Eaters, I just had to throw that in. Sorry.

Well the guy that ask the question was half rightxnodx :D

[Eight Legger]

As far as the CAA goes, my take is that JMU is obviously in, Villanova is very likely in and beyond that there's some fuzziness.

I don't like UMass's odds of making it in. They can beat UNH but that's their last chance for a "big" win, and UNH to me is overly inflated by a softer schedule than other league teams. (Not blaming them, because they didn't make the schedule of course, but that's my take.)

The UNH-UMass game will be an elimination game for UMass and could be one for UNH if they also lose to Villanova.

To me, UR could possibly afford a close loss to W&M and still make the playoffs (depending how other things go) by virtue of having beaten two top-10 teams and having only previously lost to the #1 and #7 teams (sorry, I don't count FBS losses).

A UR loss to Delaware or Hofstra might doom us.

As for W&M, we will learn a lot in the next few weeks. They certainly have a chance to earn their way in. I would project 4 CAA teams to make it, and my picks are JMU, Villanova, UR, UNH.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Very possible we'll see CAA representation like in 2004 with three South teams and one North team. (IIRC, 2004 was W&M, JMU, UD and UNH.) But I'm not gifted enough to predict all the remaining games other than to say that JMU would have to stumble beyond belief to not make it now. But who's going to survive out of Nova, W&M and Richmond? xconfusedx xconfusedx Can UMass rebound? Can UNH overcome the Minutemen? Can Maine make a huge run? Do Towson, Delaware, Hofstra, Northeastern or URI have some upsets in store for us? xconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx

I do recall last year at this time many posters demonstrating how multiple teams could come out of each league with gaudy records. Again this year it is mathematically possible, but like last year probably won't happen. Let the in-conference bloodbath begin! :p xrotatehx xrotatehx

[R.A.]

a 2 loss Hampton team with losses @ SIU (6 pts) and @ SC State (1-7 Pts Game to be played Saturday) must be considered.

If Hampton were to finish with 10 wins, then okay... but if Hampton loses again, that's only 9 wins for the Pirates. If the MEAC has trouble getting a 9-2 team into the playoffs during 11 game season, it maybe almost impossible for us to get a 9-2 team in during a 12 game season.

Now, if a Joe Taylor led FAMU team can find a way to go 10-2, a 10-2 FAMU will make the playoffs. It won't matter what squad is out there. If FAMU gets 10 FCS wins, the FAMU Rattlers will make the playoffs, period... especially if Tennessee State finishes 11-1 or 10-2 as OVC Champion with one of their losses to FAMU.

I'm sure that a bunch of voters have been watching FAMU on television this season also... folks are familiar with the Rattlers; 3 ESPNU games so far, plus the Atlanta Football Classic on television... FAMU aganist a SoCon or CAA school in the first round of the playoffs will be a nice draw for fans.

[slycat]

What no Southland brethren to comment on the situation? ...maybe fear has set in with each team facing the possibility of not making the playoffs already after just 2 games...xlolx

I had that fear when the season started, then the win at McNeese gave me false hope which UCA killed. Now we have made it harder on ourselves. Plus the idea of SFA getting it boggles my mind.

I agree with your assestment. SHSU and Nichols are all but screwed. The rest have to fight it out and UCA can sit back and try not to pull a NDSU in a few years.

[JohnStOnge]

After reading through this thread, we are really gonna need some upsets over the last 5 weeks. Without upsets the deserving number of teams by conference are as follows...(note: even though some conferences have tight races I will consider some leagues to only have one bid. Example: Southland, MEAC...)
CAA maybe as many as six
Big Sky Very possibly three
Southern As many as four
MVC As many as three
The other four autobids
Cal Poly
Liberty?
Another two or three teams from the other autobid conferences.

That leaves up to 24 very deserving teams without upsets.

This is where teams like EWU, Deleware, NDSU, SDSU, etc. need to do there part and make it easier on the selection committee.

It's possible for the Southland to get two spots if both Texas State and McNeese win out. Hard to see another scenario in which it could happen.