Updated Odds to reach 7+ D-I Wins

[HensRock]

4 new teams reached the 7 D-I Win plateau on Saturday.
They are: Lehigh, UMass, Georgia Southern, and Eastern Illinois.

Updated odds for remaining teams to make it to 7+ D-I wins follows. (NOTE: This does not eliminate teams from playoffs because it does not consider conference champions. This is only looking at estimated odds of reach 7+ D-I wins to qualify for an at-large bid.) In parenthesis is what they must do - e.g. "1/2" means they must win 1 of remaining 2 games.

100.00% Lehigh (reached 7 wins)
100.00% Massachusetts (reached 7 wins)
100.00% New Hampshire (already has 7 D-I wins)
100.00% Coastal Carolina (already has 7 D-I wins)
100.00% Hampton (already has 7 D-I wins)
100.00% Furman (Already has 7 D-I wins)
100.00% Georgia Southern (reached 7 wins)
100.00% Eastern Illinois (reached 7 wins)
96.00% South Carolina State (1/2)
94.00% Colgate (1/2)
92.00% Cal Poly (1/2)
92.00% Appalachian State (1/2)
90.00% Montana (1/2)
85.00% Southern Illinois (1/2)
80.00% Richmond (1/2)
80.00% Illinois State (1/1 must beat Ind. State)
75.00% Montana State (1/2)
75.00% Lafayette (1/2)
49.00% Eastern Kentucky (2/2)
40.00% Youngstown State (1/1 must beat WKU)
35.00% Jacksonville State (2/2)
35.00% Holy Cross (2/2)
35.00% Texas State (2/2)
30.00% William & Mary (2/2)
30.00% Chattanooga (1/1 must beat Furman)
25.00% Western Kentucky (2/2)
25.00% Bethune-Cookman (2/2)
21.00% Hofstra (2/2)
21.00% Northern Iowa (2/2)
16.00% Towson (2/2)
10.00% Florida A&M (2/2)

Newly eliminated this week:
0.00% Villanova (cannot get 7 D-I wins)
0.00% Eastern Washington (cannot get 7 D-I wins)
0.00% Portland State (cannot get 7 D-I wins)
0.00% Georgetown (cannot get 7 D-I wins)
0.00% Wofford (cannot get 7 D-I wins)
0.00% McNeese State (cannot get 7 D-I wins)
0.00% Northwestern State (cannot get 7 D-I wins)

[Cocky]

Will there be adjustments made for the Hurricane teams?

[Tailbone]

How were the percentages calculated and why is 1 of 2 chances not 50%?

[AppGuy04]

Will there be adjustments made for the Hurricane teams?

i don't think they can, simply because you can't assume a team would have won that game

[Cocky]

i don't think they can, simply because you can't assume a team would have won that game

If your correct, I predict at least one 4 loss at-large team.

[HensRock]

How were the percentages calculated and why is 1 of 2 chances not 50%?

1 of 1 chances would be 50%. If you have 2 chances to win 1 game, the odds are significantly better. If you assume each game is a 50/50 proposition, you should have a 75% chance of taking at least 1 out of 2. But I don't assume that. I estimated each team's remaining schedule. So beating Indiana State to reach 7 wins is going to have a higher chance than beating Furman.

[89Hen]

1 of 1 chances would be 50%. If you have 2 chances to win 1 game, the odds are significantly better. If you assume each game is a 50/50 proposition, you should have a 75% chance of taking at least 1 out of 2. But I don't assume that. I estimated each team's remaining schedule. So beating Indiana State to reach 7 wins is going to have a higher chance than beating Furman.
I think you've been watching too much poker on TV with all those % chances of winning. :p

[AppGuy04]

If your correct, I predict at least one 4 loss at-large team.

nothing would surprise me this year

honestly, i wish they could account for the hurricane games, but its just not possible

[OL FU]

i don't think they can, simply because you can't assume a team would have won that game

I think they can because they don't have to assume they would have won the game. They can just say 6 wins is enough if games were cancelled by the hurricanes.

[GannonFan]

nothing would surprise me this year

honestly, i wish they could account for the hurricane games, but its just not possible

I don't think that's the case - I thought the NCAA has already said that there could be considerations taken for teams that have lost games due to the hurricane. I doubt you'll see a 4-loss hurricane team, but I wouldn't be shocked if Nicholl's or McNeese got in with three losses in only 9 games (they play each other at the end of the year so at least one will have 4 losses).

[HensRock]

What comes out of this is that I think the most likely playoff field is:

A10: UMass & UNH
Big Sky: Montana
Gate: So. ILL & ( YSU or UNI or WKU )
MEAC: Hampton & SC St.
Pat: Lehigh
OVC: E. ILL
SoCon: Furman, GSU, ASU
Southland: TX St. (or Nicholls)

Then you need to look at 8-3 Cal Poly and 10-1 CCU

I think the last spot would come down to Richmond, or Montana State or a possible Southland team with Hurricane considerations, or an 8-3 Gateway team in that order of probablity. I don't think Colgate or Lafayette will go even at 8-3 unless they win the conference and in that case I think Lehigh does not go - so basically only the automatic from the Patriot League. IMO.

[AppGuy04]

What comes out of this is that I think the most likely playoff field is:

A10: UMass & UNH
Big Sky: Montana
Gate: So. ILL & ( YSU or UNI or WKU )
MEAC: Hampton & SC St.
Pat: Lehigh
OVC: E. ILL
SoCon: Furman, GSU, ASU
Southland: TX St. (or Nicholls)

Then you need to look at 8-3 Cal Poly and 10-1 CCU

I think the last spot would come down to Richmond, or Montana State or a possible Southland team with Hurricane considerations, or an 8-3 Gateway team in that order of probablity. I don't think Colgate or Lafayette will go even at 8-3 unless they win the conference and in that case I think Lehigh does not go - so basically only the automatic from the Patriot League. IMO.

SCSt., thats interesting

[HensRock]

SCSt., thats interesting

At 9-2 they'd be tough to deny, despite the weak schedule.

[ysubigred]

4 LOSS TEAMS IN 1AA PLAYOFF HISTORY:

At-Large selections

1987 Marshall SOCON
87 North TX Southland C
90 Citadel SOCON
92 Appy St. SOCON
95 Idaho Big Sky
05 YSU :)

Auto Bid

87 Richmond
88 Delaware
90 LA-Monroe
95 UNI
97 Colgate
02 Murray St.
02, 03 Montana St.

[AppGuy04]

At 9-2 they'd be tough to deny, despite the weak schedule.

on my list, there are several 3 loss teams that i would pick first, hell, probably some 4 loss teams

[ISUMatt]

I think ILS, a 4 loss team, has a great shot IF YSU, WKU and UNI arent eligible!!

Thats alot to ask for I know but it could happen

[TypicalTribe]

At 9-2 they'd be tough to deny, despite the weak schedule.

They will be somwhere in the 28-30 range in this week's GPI, so putting them in the field would be along the lines of BCC getting in under similar circumstances in 2003. Also, I think it could come down to them or CCU and since they lost to them at home, I would think they'd lose out. SCSU needs a lot to happen for a spot to open up for them.