At-large scenario

[URMite]

If Top 25 teams only lose to other Top 25 teams away (with a couple of exceptions to keep things interesting) Here is who would be most of the 0 to 3 loss teams:

Montana..............11..1...wsu
Liberty................10..1...Elon
Villanova.............10...1...Fbs
James Madison......9...2...fbs/vu
New Hampshire......9...2...wm/vu
Southern Illinois.....9...2...fbs/ndsu
Cal Poly-SLO.........8...2...Umt/fbs
Elon....... ............10...2...ur/asu
Weber State..........9...3...fbs/fbs/nau
Appalachian State..9...3...fbs/jmu/gsu
Northern Iowa.......9...3...fbs/siu/wiu
Massachusetts......9...3...fbs/jmu/unh
Wofford............... 8...3...fbs/elon/asu
Northern Arizona... 8...3...fbs/umo/ewu
Western Illinois......8...3...fbs/sdsu/siu
William & Mary.......8...3...fbs/vu/jmu

That includes 4 autobids, it doesn't include the autobids from the (SL, PL, OVC, MEAC) or any other 3 or less loss teams from the SL or OVC (because that is still too complicated)

So who would be your 12 playoff teams above? and could any 4 loss team get an at-large before 1 of them?

Yes I know there will be upsets and the season is bearly half over but I'm trying to get a handle on where the line is drawn...

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

If Top 25 teams only lose to other Top 25 teams away (with a couple of exceptions to keep things interesting) Here is who would be most of the 0 to 3 loss teams:

Montana..............11..1...wsu
Liberty................10..1...Elon
Villanova.............10...1...Fbs
James Madison......9...2...fbs/vu
New Hampshire......9...2...wm/vu
Southern Illinois.....9...2...fbs/ndsu
Cal Poly-SLO.........8...2...Umt/fbs
Elon....... ............10...2...ur/asu
Weber State..........9...3...fbs/fbs/nau
Appalachian State..9...3...fbs/jmu/gsu
Northern Iowa.......9...3...fbs/siu/wiu
Massachusetts......9...3...fbs/jmu/unh
Wofford............... 8...3...fbs/elon/asu
Northern Arizona... 8...3...fbs/umo/ewu
Western Illinois......8...3...fbs/sdsu/siu
William & Mary.......8...3...fbs/vu/jmu

That includes 4 autobids, it doesn't include the autobids from the (SL, PL, OVC, MEAC) or any other 3 or less loss teams from the SL or OVC (because that is still too complicated)

So who would be your 12 playoff teams above? and could any 4 loss team get an at-large before 1 of them?

Yes I know there will be upsets and the season is bearly half over but I'm trying to get a handle on where the line is drawn...

If you can get a UMass fan to sign off on the UNH/UMass out come I'm ready to sign.:D

[URMite]

If you can get a UMass fan to sign off on the UNH/UMass out come I'm ready to sign.:D

I might have a chance since I'm giving them a win this weekend. xlolx

[PaladinFan]

Furman may have four or more losses, but they are a possible 3 loss team as well.

[URMite]

Furman may have four or more losses, but they are a possible 3 loss team as well.

I know, but like UR there are too many away chances to get to 4 losses. And if they did end with 3 losses it likely would drive another Socon team to 4.

I think I'm just trying to show that no 4 loss team should expect to make the playoffs at this point and even some good 3 loss teams may get left out.

Although enough upsets usually happen to reduce the number of "woofs". xcoffeex

[KAUMASS]

Lot's of things can happen in the next 6 weeks with many different outcomes. JMU, barring any major injuries, should win the autobid. If they don't, last year's coin flip will look easy compared to what may happen this year. As for at-large, we could get anywhere from 2-4. I think 3-4 total teams is realistic at this point. Don't want to speculate this early.

[siuham]

The only thing is, EWU isn't technically a top 25 team anymore, so you can throw NAU another win to be at 9-2.

[URMite]

Lot's of things can happen in the next 6 weeks with many different outcomes. JMU, barring any major injuries, should win the autobid. If they don't, last year's coin flip will look easy compared to what may happen this year. As for at-large, we could get anywhere from 2-4. I think 3-4 total teams is realistic at this point. Don't want to speculate this early.

I think JMU has the best chance but are far from certain. Nova's has at least 2 very tough games left but they get them both at home (JMU & UNH). So they are another possible 8-0 CAA team. Although we match up poorly with Nova and JMU matches up well, it is something to think about.

[PantherRob82]

UNI will not lose to WIU