Playoff Prognostications - 10/12

[TexasTerror]

A friendly reminder -- do this just to spur discussion and while you guys are going to rip me apart, I continue to be willing to give it a try. Things are going to be much clearer here in the next few weeks and it won't be such a crapshoot! Teams on the outside this week are Richmond and Furman. And yes, slotted McNeese in SLC spot because I know just how inconsistent the Bobcats are.

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Elon
SLC: McNeese

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Liberty (Big South)
3) New Hampshire (CAA)
4) Villanova (CAA)
5) South Dakota State (MVFC)
6) Northern Iowa (MVFC)
7) Wofford (SoCon)
8) Appalachian State (SoCon)


Hampton at James Madison (1)
Villanova at Southern Illinois

Liberty at Appalachian State (4)
Lafayette at New Hampshire

Tennessee State at Elon (2)
Wofford at McNeese State

Northern Arizona at Northern Iowa (3)
South Dakota State at Montana

[Killsback]

If NOrthern Iowa ties with Southern Illinois the tiebreaker goes to SIU because it beat UNI already. The MVFC has a four way tie for first at 2-1 right now.

[appst97]

Interesting that Elon gets the AQ from the SoCon, yet App and Wofford get the seeds.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't know if they win the conference or not but Elon will get in the playoffs.

[Jerbearasu]

If App loses again then I doubt they get a seed with 3 losses and 2 in the FCS unless others around them lose. If they win out then they will either be a 1 or 2 seed. Also, no App fan wants to see JMU on their side of the bracket. We'd like to see them in Chatty!

[boonegoon]

I don't know if they win the conference or not but Elon will get in the playoffs.

I think the three playoff teams from the Socon are correct. But there is still a lot of football to be played.

[appfan2008]

I wont rip you apart TT... I actually think you are hitting the nail on the head by sending Liberty to us... I could really see that happening...

[SuperJon]

I wont rip you apart TT... I actually think you are hitting the nail on the head by sending Liberty to us... I could really see that happening...

And I would love that. If we playoffs, I'll have to work and not be able to go home for Thanksgiving. If we play at App, I can leave and go home on Friday when the team leaves and then make the short, under two hour drive up on Saturday.

I've said all year we're going to Boone or Harrisonburg.

[Dukie95]

JMU beat App St.
Richmod beat Elon

If any conference gets two seeds, it's the CAA, not the SoCon.

The problem is, Richmond's record will make a seed impossible and Nova's (undeservedly) ranked far too low in the human polls.

[MacThor]

Richmond didn't just beat Elon, they crushed Elon AT Elon.

[slostang]

If Cal Poly wins next week at South Dakota State they will most likely be in the playoffs.

[TexasTerror]

If Cal Poly wins next week at South Dakota State they will most likely be in the playoffs.

A loss to Wisconsin is likely and nothing is guaranteed in the Great West. Beating SDSU is nice, but there's a long road for Cal Poly, even if they are highly ranked in my top 25 ballot...

[Tribe4SF]

JMU beat App St.
Richmod beat Elon

If any conference gets two seeds, it's the CAA, not the SoCon.

The problem is, Richmond's record will make a seed impossible and Nova's (undeservedly) ranked far too low in the human polls.

Nova will keep rising in the polls. If they finish 9-2, they have a shot at a seed. UNH still has a shot at going 10-1.

[Saint3333]

JMU beat App St.
Richmod beat Elon

If any conference gets two seeds, it's the CAA, not the SoCon.

The problem is, Richmond's record will make a seed impossible and Nova's (undeservedly) ranked far too low in the human polls.

It is way to early to say who will deserve seeds. Richmond, JMU, UMass, ASU, Elon, and Wofford have at least a couple of tough games remaining. Unlike the CAA the SoCon teams have to play ALL of the good teams in our conference.

ASU begins murders row next week: @ GSU, Furman, Wofford, skip a week and then Elon. Talk about a tough 5 weeks.

[RabidRabbit]

If Cal Poly wins next week at South Dakota State they will most likely be in the playoffs.

This is still a make or break game for Poly. SDSU's fortunes took a step forward up in Fargo yesterday. However, Jackrabbit's need the Poly win too.

This will be a GREAT WEST type of game.xthumbsupx

[slostang]

This is still a make or break game for Poly. SDSU's fortunes took a step forward up in Fargo yesterday. However, Jackrabbit's need the Poly win too.

This will be a GREAT WEST type of game.xthumbsupx

xthumbsupx

[IaaScribe]

Regardless of what happens in Madtown, Cal Poly will be ranked in the Top 5 of every poll if it beats SDSU and wins the rest of its FCS games. Can't see any scenario where the Stangs are excluded if that's the case.

[Phoenix87]

Richmond didn't just beat Elon, they crushed Elon AT Elon.

You obviously weren't at the game then and haven't seen the Phoenix play recently. It was 10-7 at half time and neck and neck, and the second half Elon cramped up like crazy and didn't have players to keep up with Richmond.

If the two teams played again it would be a shoot out like their game with JMU was last night.

[slostang]

A loss to Wisconsin is likely and nothing is guaranteed in the Great West. Beating SDSU is nice, but there's a long road for Cal Poly, even if they are highly ranked in my top 25 ballot...

If, and it is a big if, Cal Poly wins against SDSU they will be 4-1. Cal Poly's next four games are at home against 3-4 Southern Utah, 0-6 Idaho State, 1-5 North Carolina Central and 3-4 UC Davis. It is not a given, but if they win in Brookings they most likely be a top five 8-1 team going into the Wisconsin game. Cal Poly's only loss would be a 2 point loss to Montana in a game where they missed a game winning 27 yard FG with under a minute to play. Cal Poly also has a FBS win over San Diego State. If they are left out of the playoffs with a 8-2 record it would be a crime.

[katstrapper]

If Sam Houston can put a beat down on McNeese in Huntsville next weekend, the Pokes are done. SLC is wide open now after yesterday.

[smallcollegefbfan]

A friendly reminder -- do this just to spur discussion and while you guys are going to rip me apart, I continue to be willing to give it a try. Things are going to be much clearer here in the next few weeks and it won't be such a crapshoot! Teams on the outside this week are Richmond and Furman. And yes, slotted McNeese in SLC spot because I know just how inconsistent the Bobcats are.

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Elon
SLC: McNeese

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Liberty (Big South)
3) New Hampshire (CAA)
4) Villanova (CAA)
5) South Dakota State (MVFC)
6) Northern Iowa (MVFC)
7) Wofford (SoCon)
8) Appalachian State (SoCon)


Hampton at James Madison (1)
Villanova at Southern Illinois

Liberty at Appalachian State (4)
Lafayette at New Hampshire

Tennessee State at Elon (2)
Wofford at McNeese State

Northern Arizona at Northern Iowa (3)
South Dakota State at Montana

I would put UCA over McNeese after yesterday and I don't see Elon as the #2 seed. I think they will either lose to App State or Wofford. Then after that is all goes to who bids the most and I have no clue how well Elon could bid to get a home game. Anyone know if Elon has the pockets that teams like App, Montana, etc. have to get the home games?

[katstrapper]

I would put UCA over McNeese after yesterday and I don't see Elon as the #2 seed. I think they will either lose to App State or Wofford. Then after that is all goes to who bids the most and I have no clue how well Elon could bid to get a home game. Anyone know if Elon has the pockets that teams like App, Montana, etc. have to get the home games?

UCA not elgible until 2010 for playoffs.

[Bobcat94]

So first or second could be the automatic bid from SLC. Depending on UCA's finish....

[theasushow]

elon's rhodes stadium holds around 12,000 I believe. In years past it didnt sell out, I dont know about now. Im sure elon's recent success has had a positive impact on attendance there. that being said, it would be hard to outbid the likes of montana, asu, etc.

[th0m]

Well bids don't always have to do with stadiumsize, but more about whether schools are willing to shell out the dough to buy the games.

[apaladin]

elon's rhodes stadium holds around 12,000 I believe. In years past it didnt sell out, I dont know about now. Im sure elon's recent success has had a positive impact on attendance there. that being said, it would be hard to outbid the likes of montana, asu, etc.

That's very generous. They only have 6500 seats so I guess you are using the Wofford method for capapcity. Wofford has 8250 seats and list Gibbs Stadium capacity at 13,000 counting 5000 for a grass bank. To answer the question I don't see Elon buying a playoff game as they would draw under 5000 for a Thanksgiving weekend game.

[kirkblitz]

coastal will get a bid.... xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx

[gbhmt]

still no love for weber state eh? they're on track to win the conference.

[GrizRchattybound]

Weber is a very powerful team..their only losses to date are Hawaii and Utah (respectable losses I might add) and needs to be somewhere in the mix looking at their remaining schedule.

There will be 3 teams that should make the playoff's from the BSC, but may only be room for two....when are the expanded playoff fields going to be in place? :)

[PantherRob82]

If Cal Poly wins next week at South Dakota State they will most likely be in the playoffs.

please delete mods. read it wrong.

[Ronbo]

I'm wondering who can stop Weber State. They have 5 games left and have thumped two of the better Big Sky teams already. I can see them going 10-2 with their only losses to Hawaii and Utah. And the polls will still probably have them like #12 or something like that.xconfusedx xoopsx xoopsx

[PantherRob82]

You obviously weren't at the game then and haven't seen the Phoenix play recently. It was 10-7 at half time and neck and neck, and the second half Elon cramped up like crazy and didn't have players to keep up with Richmond.

If the two teams played again it would be a shoot out like their game with JMU was last night.

Those are some bad excuses. Elon is not a good team if they do not have their players prepared to play a game like Richmond. Hydration issues?!xconfusedx

[PantherRob82]

I would put UCA over McNeese after yesterday and I don't see Elon as the #2 seed. I think they will either lose to App State or Wofford. Then after that is all goes to who bids the most and I have no clue how well Elon could bid to get a home game. Anyone know if Elon has the pockets that teams like App, Montana, etc. have to get the home games?

Elon will not play at home without a seed

[ccd494]

Who are we kidding here?

My playoffs:

[1]James Madison
bye

[8]Hofstra
[9]Northeastern

[4]New Hampshire
bye

[5]Richmond
[12]Rhode Island

[3]UMass
bye

[6]William & Mary
[11]Delaware

[7]Maine
[10]Towson

[2]Villanova
bye

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Who are we kidding here?

My playoffs:

[1]James Madison
bye

[8]Hofstra
[9]Northeastern

[4]New Hampshire
bye

[5]Richmond
[12]Rhode Island

[3]UMass
bye

[6]William & Mary
[11]Delaware

[7]Maine
[10]Towson

[2]Villanova
bye


how can we get you and TT on the committe

[AppStateold299]

Are you kidding me? No SoCon teams? The number 2 team in the polls doesn't make the playoffs in your picture? Wow! They don't play a whole game as of right now, but by the end of the season they will be on their game.


Who are we kidding here?

My playoffs:

[1]James Madison
bye

[8]Hofstra
[9]Northeastern

[4]New Hampshire
bye

[5]Richmond
[12]Rhode Island

[3]UMass
bye

[6]William & Mary
[11]Delaware

[7]Maine
[10]Towson

[2]Villanova
bye

[Houndawg]

Are you kidding me? No SoCon teams? The number 2 team in the polls doesn't make the playoffs in your picture? Wow! They don't play a whole game as of right now, but by the end of the season they will be on their game.

Jesus, I hope so.:D

[FanOfAllThatIsJMU]

Are you kidding me? No SoCon teams? The number 2 team in the polls doesn't make the playoffs in your picture? Wow! They don't play a whole game as of right now, but by the end of the season they will be on their game.

your powers of observation amaze me xbowx

[KiddBrewer]

Are you kidding me? No SoCon teams? The number 2 team in the polls doesn't make the playoffs in your picture? Wow! They don't play a whole game as of right now, but by the end of the season they will be on their game.




haha hes not with us.......xoopsx

[JayJ79]

Well bids don't always have to do with stadiumsize, but more about whether schools are willing to shell out the dough to buy the games.

I thought that a school's bid had to factor in probable attendance. But maybe that is just a guideline and not set in stone.

[FanOfAllThatIsJMU]

some guy has his own prediction page; hasn't yet been updated for this weekend results though

www.nobowls.com


(and no its not my site)

[furman94]

His brackets...

The Bracket: Week 6
(1) James Madison
Harrisonburg, VA
Elon

Lafayette
Easton, PA
Villanova

(4) New Hampshire
Durham, NH
Wofford

Northern Iowa
Cedar Falls, IA
Stephen F. Austin

(2) Appalachian St.
Boone, NC
Tennessee St.

Richmond
Richmond, VA
Hampton

(3) McNeese St.
Lake Charles, LA
Illinois St.

Cal Poly
San Luis Obispo, CA
N. Arizona

[oldSLOguy]

If, and it is a big if, Cal Poly wins against SDSU they will be 4-1. Cal Poly's next four games are at home against 3-4 Southern Utah, 0-6 Idaho State, 1-5 North Carolina Central and 3-4 UC Davis. It is not a given, but if they win in Brookings they most likely be a top five 8-1 team going into the Wisconsin game. Cal Poly's only loss would be a 2 point loss to Montana in a game where they missed a game winning 27 yard FG with under a minute to play. Cal Poly also has a FBS win over San Diego State. If they are left out of the playoffs with a 8-2 record it would be a crime.

I agree, but Davis is a much much better team than their record so far. I just hope they don't put it all together until after they play the Mustangs. With no room for a loss which would put them below 7 DI wins, the Mustangs need to be ready for every game.

[B&G]

I'll throw in one with a slightly different look

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Weber St
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina St
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian St
SLC: McNeese

At-Large
1) Elon (SoCon)
2) Liberty (Big South)
3) Villanova (CAA)
4) Montana (Big Sky)
5) Northern Iowa (MVFC)
6) UMass (CAA)
7) Wofford (SoCon)
8) Cal Poly (Great West)

Liberty at James Madison (1)
Lafayette at Villanova

Cal Poly at Weber State (4)
Elon at McNeese

South Carolina State at Appalachian St (2)
Wofford at UMass

Jacksonville St at Southern Illinois (3)
Nothern Iowa at Montana

[putter]

As long as NAU goes 1-1 against Montana and Weber I think they have a great shot as an at-large. No way you leave Poly out if they run the table until Wisconsin and they way they are getting pounded now they can win that game.

[McNeese75]

So first or second could be the automatic bid from SLC. Depending on UCA's finish....

Cats are in the drivers seat at this time.

[SuperJon]

I know I've said it before, but if we get in, we'll be sent to App or JMU. There are advantages to both from an off-the-field standpoint (we play JMU at home next year so a good game hypes that up big time and App is two hours from me at home). With that being said, I just wanna get in first.

[Jerbearasu]

Who are we kidding here?

My playoffs:

[1]James Madison
bye

[8]Hofstra
[9]Northeastern

[4]New Hampshire
bye

[5]Richmond
[12]Rhode Island

[3]UMass
bye

[6]William & Mary
[11]Delaware

[7]Maine
[10]Towson

[2]Villanova
bye

If I remember correctly App got into this tourney last year and took down the #1, 5, and 11 seeds in 4 weeks to win the CAA...

[leatherneck177]

Are you kidding me? No SoCon teams? The number 2 team in the polls doesn't make the playoffs in your picture? Wow! They don't play a whole game as of right now, but by the end of the season they will be on their game.

I really hope you are kidding.

[skinny_uncle]

Just figuring out the Valley at this point is a headache.

Standings

Northern Iowa 2-1 4-2
Western Illinois 2-1 4-2
Southern Illinois 2-1 3-2
South Dakota State 2-1 3-3
Illinois St. 1-1 2-3
Missouri State 1-1 2-3
North Dakota State 1-2 3-3
Youngstown St. 1-2 2-5
Indiana State 0-2 0-6

Guessing who is going to emerge from this mess with the autobid is right up there with spinning a roulette wheel. Co-champs in this league are a very good possibility.

[coover]

Prognostication: Cal Poly will go 8-2 with losses only to Montana and Wisconsin (if the real Badgers actually show up). They beat South Dakota State by 7, Cal Davis by 10 and blow out the rest of their schedule.

If the above is true, how do you keep Poly out of the playoffs?

[jlcharles]

FWIW, we had two home games the last time we made the postseason and we don't draw well, ranking 41st last year in attendance. We hosted Furman and Fordham I think. So I don't know how much it has to do with attendance. And I won't pretend to know what goes into the decision of whom to award home games to past the seeded teams.

[AlphaSigMD]

Just a couple of thoughts:

Elon is a good team, and could likely be the Socon champ if the ball bounces the right way for them. They have looked both good and bad at times. Same as App and Wofford. Wofford will have the toughest time though because they have the toughest schedule remaining.

I don't think Elon/Wofford will get out of the Socon without another loss (maybe two) but either of them as the 2 seed could happen if they win out. Maybe even the overall No. 1 depending on how JMU does. JMU may or may not have a loss at the end of the season.

To address and earlier statement, the CAA may not get 2 seeds, even though they may have two of the best 4 teams in the country in Richmond and JMU. It's the same reason the MV may not get 3 (or even 2) teams into the playoffs. Richmond may slip up along the way (at UMass or W&M maybe?) and JMU could have trouble next week at Villanova. Both benefit tremendously dodging UNH this year.

Will ASU get a seed if they win out? Yes. Will they if lose one more game? Maybe. There have been a lot of losses out there, so its going to be a crazy year. Will Elon or Wofford get a seed without winning out, probably not unless they beat ASU and lose to the other setting up a 3-way tie. I just can't see giving a seed to Elon or Wofford otherwise. Ignoring any small crowd arguments, it would put 3 seeds within a 200 mile radius. Probably not going to happen for logistics sake.

However, there is still a lot of football to be played, and the all the leagues are still up for grabs. ASU, Wofford, Elon, JMU and Richmond all still have a lot of room to either prosper or hang themselves.

[JmuSkinsfan]

Richmond may slip up along the way (at UMass or W&M maybe?) and JMU could have trouble next week at Villanova. Both benefit tremendously dodging UNH this year.

I get what you're saying. However, JMU won @ #1 UNH in 2006 and beat #5 UNH last year. JMU has UNH's number of late, and I'm not convinced this year's UNH team is better than the previous two with Santos ...

That being said, the last thing JMU needs right now is to play another ranked CAA team. Playing then #3 and #5 would be bad enough, but now we will likely have to play a top 6 Villanova. Then throw in playing the then #1 (and now #2) team in the country in ASU and I'll gladly take this year off from UNH.

[Mustang Man]

If Cal Poly goes 8-2 are we looking at them hosting a first round game?

[th0m]

I thought that a school's bid had to factor in probable attendance. But maybe that is just a guideline and not set in stone.

I thought it was something like: A school submits a bid which they pay the NCAA upon receiving a home game (actually, you submit a series of bids for all the games leading up until the championship game). However, if a certain percentage of their gate exceeds their bid, they pay that percentage of the gate instead of their bid. Either way, the NCAA is in a win-win situation. I could be waaaaay off on this, but I know I didn't make this up myself (i.e. I read it somewhere).

For some (if not most) FCS schools, students generally get in for free for home games. Not so with playoffs, unless the school buys the tickets for them.

[Tribe4SF]

I thought it was something like: A school submits a bid which they pay the NCAA upon receiving a home game (actually, you submit a series of bids for all the games leading up until the championship game). However, if a certain percentage of their gate exceeds their bid, they pay that percentage of the gate instead of their bid. Either way, the NCAA is in a win-win situation. I could be waaaaay off on this, but I know I didn't make this up myself (i.e. I read it somewhere).

For some (if not most) FCS schools, students generally get in for free for home games. Not so with playoffs, unless the school buys the tickets for them.

Boosters frequently buy student tickets. Tribe faithful did so during 2004 run.

[Dukie95]

It is way to early to say who will deserve seeds. Richmond, JMU, UMass, ASU, Elon, and Wofford have at least a couple of tough games remaining. Unlike the CAA the SoCon teams have to play ALL of the good teams in our conference.

ASU begins murders row next week: @ GSU, Furman, Wofford, skip a week and then Elon. Talk about a tough 5 weeks.

Sorry about that. I'll try to do a better job of staying on the subject of "Playoff Prognostications". xrolleyesx

[appstate38]

You obviously weren't at the game then and haven't seen the Phoenix play recently. It was 10-7 at half time and neck and neck, and the second half Elon cramped up like crazy and didn't have players to keep up with Richmond.

If the two teams played again it would be a shoot out like their game with JMU was last night.

So then its the coaches fault for not having his team in better shape to take on a top 10 opponent. UR was in the same weather conditions. Please don't go there with that lame excuse. It won't fly when you come to Boone. If you didn't have the players then, when did they magically appear, that would make a rematch any different.xrotatehx xlolx xrotatehx

[Phoenix87]

So then its the coaches fault for not having his team in better shape to take on a top 10 opponent. UR was in the same weather conditions. Please don't go there with that lame excuse. It won't fly when you come to Boone. If you didn't have the players then, when did they magically appear, that would make a rematch any different.xrotatehx xlolx xrotatehx

The big difference maker was that Richmond was giving their players IV's to keep them fresh and Elon doctors won't give IV's on the sideline, so we suffered.

None-the-less, if we weren't in shape then, we're ok now. I'd love to see a rematch late in the playoffs.

[james_lawfirm]

Well bids don't always have to do with stadiumsize, but more about whether schools are willing to shell out the dough to buy the games.


Regarding the bid process, FWIW, I thought that a school made a minimum bid to the NCAA, and then also promised some % of the gate. I know the NCAA sets the ticket prices (students have to pay) - last year I think they were $20 ea. Obviously, larger stadiums and teams with a larger average attendance offer the NCAA a better chance to make more money than smaller stadiums. And just as obviously, a team with a larger paid attendance during the year can bid higher.

[nmatsen]

Northern Iowa won't get the 3 seed unless they win the auto bid. If Southern Illinois finishes the conference season with 1 loss and so does UNI (in my opinion the only way for them to get a 3) then SIU gets the auto bid over us and the seed. Especially after we crapped down our leg last year with the 1 seed.

[Edge316007]

Regarding the bid process, FWIW, I thought that a school made a minimum bid to the NCAA, and then also promised some % of the gate. I know the NCAA sets the ticket prices (students have to pay) - last year I think they were $20 ea. Obviously, larger stadiums and teams with a larger average attendance offer the NCAA a better chance to make more money than smaller stadiums. And just as obviously, a team with a larger paid attendance during the year can bid higher.

App playoff tickets were 5$ last year and 20$ for the Championship game.

[Rob Iola]

Do seeded teams automatically get home games if they bid (or regardless if they bid) - or looking at it the other way around, do teams have to bid in order to be considered for seeds?

If Elon beats ASU to win the Socon and then loses to an undefeated Liberty, I could see Liberty getting a seed...

[mcveyrl]

App playoff tickets were 5$ last year and 20$ for the Championship game.

Were those student tickets?

[Edge316007]

^ Yes

[mcveyrl]

^ Yes

I think GA is $20, but I could be wrong.

[Edge316007]

Probably, since it's 12$ (I think) for regular season games.

But james_lawfirm was talking about student tickets I believe.

[CopperCat]

A friendly reminder -- do this just to spur discussion and while you guys are going to rip me apart, I continue to be willing to give it a try. Things are going to be much clearer here in the next few weeks and it won't be such a crapshoot! Teams on the outside this week are Richmond and Furman. And yes, slotted McNeese in SLC spot because I know just how inconsistent the Bobcats are.

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Elon
SLC: McNeese

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Liberty (Big South)
3) New Hampshire (CAA)
4) Villanova (CAA)
5) South Dakota State (MVFC)
6) Northern Iowa (MVFC)
7) Wofford (SoCon)
8) Appalachian State (SoCon)


Hampton at James Madison (1)
Villanova at Southern Illinois

Liberty at Appalachian State (4)
Lafayette at New Hampshire

Tennessee State at Elon (2)
Wofford at McNeese State

Northern Arizona at Northern Iowa (3)
South Dakota State at Montana

I give Weber State the auto bid at this point with either UM or NAU being the at-large out of the BSC. NAU is good, but I think Weber is better.

[Dukie95]

Do seeded teams automatically get home games if they bid (or regardless if they bid) - or looking at it the other way around, do teams have to bid in order to be considered for seeds?

If Elon beats ASU to win the Socon and then loses to an undefeated Liberty, I could see Liberty getting a seed...

If the GPI should work out that Liberty is a top 4 team that's possible, sure.

Seeds are assigned to the top 4 teams in the division (or subdivision, depending on your nomenclature of choice). GPI seems to be one of the best sources for the top 4.

Seeded teams automatically get home games (I think they must guarantee to at least meet the minimum bid). Lowest seed maintains home field throughout, so 4 always plays at 1, 3 plays at 2, etc.

Bids come into play when assigning home fields when two un-seeded teams meet.

[ToTheLeft]

I would imagine that LU wouldn't have the SoS to convince the computer polls that we're top 4, even if we beat Elon and go 12-0. The human polls might boost us up into the top 4, but not the ones based on MoV and SoS.

[nmatsen]

Just figuring out the Valley at this point is a headache.

Standings

Northern Iowa 2-1 4-2
Western Illinois 2-1 4-2
Southern Illinois 2-1 3-2
South Dakota State 2-1 3-3
Illinois St. 1-1 2-3
Missouri State 1-1 2-3
North Dakota State 1-2 3-3
Youngstown St. 1-2 2-5
Indiana State 0-2 0-6

Guessing who is going to emerge from this mess with the autobid is right up there with spinning a roulette wheel. Co-champs in this league are a very good possibility.

Seeings how we are spinning the Roulette wheel lets take a look at what the board would say the history of numbers is huh?xcoffeex

These stats are for Auto Bids, not kissing your sister trophies YSUBigRed.




UNI
YSU
UNI
SIU
UNI
WKU
UNI
WIU
ISU (RED)
WIU
WIU
UNI
UNI
UNI
UNI
UNI
UNI
UNI
MSU
WIU
UNI
EIU
UNI

You want to spin the roulette wheel to see who will win the conference? I am putting my life savings on the Cats!xsmiley_wix

[UNI Pike]

If Cal Poly goes 8-2 are we looking at them hosting a first round game?

No - I think you would be traveling to a big sky field. Weber State, MT or NAU. Outside chance of a MFVC location.

Cal Poly can not sell enough tix to get a home game without a seed. If you beat Wisconsin, different equation at 9-1.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Do seeded teams automatically get home games if they bid (or regardless if they bid) - or looking at it the other way around, do teams have to bid in order to be considered for seeds?


Seeded teams get home games as long as they make the minimum bid for each round.

And getting seeded has nothing to do with how much a school bids, it's how the committee ranked the teams, top four get seeds.

[crusader11]

Big Sky: Weber State
Colonial: JMU
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
MEAC: South Carolina State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: App State
Southland: Texas State

At Large:
Elon
UNH
Villanova
Wofford
Liberty
Southern Illinois
UMASS
Northern Arizona

Holy Cross at (1) JMU
Northern Iowa at Weber State

Texas State at (4) UNH
Liberty at Villanova

Eastern Kentucky at (2) App State
Southern Illinois at Northern Arizona

South Carolina State at (3) Elon
UMASS at Wofford

[james_lawfirm]

App playoff tickets were 5$ last year and 20$ for the Championship game.

I must have paid too much. Could it be there are student prices for playoff games? I am pretty sure I paid $20/game.

[AshevilleApp2]

I must have paid too much. Could it be there are student prices for playoff games? I am pretty sure I paid $20/game.

I'm thinking $25, but you may be right at $20.

[biggie]

I'm thinking $25, but you may be right at $20.
Yep, $25 for those of us who are not students I believe.

[LarryBoy]

I'm glad Furman is being left out of this conversation (and deservedly so). We played a hundred times better when we were expected to be a middling team. Then someone throws up a playoff prognostication with Furman winning the SoCon and it's all downhill.

[LUfilmguy]

Ok I have a few random observations... according to the 7 DI win rule...

If cal poly loses to WU and SDSU they are out which is very likely to happen seeing as the game is at SDSU, Cal Poly is no longer eligible.

McNeese State has to win out in order to be eligible. They play UCA the last game of the season.and also have to play @ SAM Houston. I honestly don't see them getting through those two games with 2 wins.

that would make two current top 15 teams ineligible. I understand the Cal poly, Mcneese game was cancelled because of the Hurricane. Does the commitee over look that if these scenarios actually play out?

any thoughts?

[ToTheLeft]

I'm pretty sure they've said that hurricane affected teams will be given consideration of some kind based on the cancellations.

[mango43]

This is still a make or break game for Poly. SDSU's fortunes took a step forward up in Fargo yesterday. However, Jackrabbit's need the Poly win too.

This will be a GREAT WEST type of game.xthumbsupx

I know I'm looking forward to it xthumbsupx

[LUfilmguy]

Yet another observation. Sam Houston needs to win out as well. to be eligible. so... in theory, UCA wins the conference and the next two teams in the conference are ineligible... would the conference just decide who to send. and at that point only one SL team would be in the playoffs.

nevermind i answered my own question. The conference champ.. whoever it is. doesn't need the 7 DI wins.

[LehighFan11]

It would be a shame if Poly loses a close game @ SDSU this week and vs. Wisconsin. I don't see how a team that loses to Montana, Wisconsin and @ SDSU should not be in the playoffs.

[dbackjon]

I'm pretty sure they've said that hurricane affected teams will be given consideration of some kind based on the cancellations.


As long as the committee realizes that ONE of them would have lost the game xsmiley_wix

[Peems]

Is there anyone(outside of us Sky fans) that think it's possible the Big Sky gets three teams? Right now it's pretty early, but consider if NAU goes 1-1 against Weber and UM. I think this could be the one year.

[UNI Pike]

Only if MT is the clear bubble team (not NAU & Weber) and if Cal Poly gets in. Otherwise, they will pick an east coast team to save on the travel cost since none of the three can play each other the first game.

[dbackjon]

Only if MT is the clear bubble team (not NAU & Weber) and if Cal Poly gets in. Otherwise, they will pick an east coast team to save on the travel cost since none of the three can play each other the first game.

that would SUCK if that was a reasoning.

[Grizzaholic]

that would SUCK if that was a reasoning.

Reason and logic do not go in the same sentence as the people who decide who gets in and who doesn't.

[UNI Pike]

I believe it is a plausible outcome at this point. That said, that and a $1 will get you a Coke.

[dbackjon]

Is there anyone(outside of us Sky fans) that think it's possible the Big Sky gets three teams? Right now it's pretty early, but consider if NAU goes 1-1 against Weber and UM. I think this could be the one year.

Under that scenario, NAU would be 9-2, with losses to Arizona State and Montana or Weber, and a win over one of those, plus MSU and EWU.

Weber would be either 10-2 or 9-3, with losses to Hawaii, Utah and NAU (9-3) scenario.

Montana would be either 11-1 or 10-2.


Under either scenario, if all three teams win out, other than common games, I would think all three would be easy picks.

[SuperJon]

I believe it is a plausible outcome at this point. That said, that and a $1 will get you a Coke.

Actually you need $1.25 at most machines now.

Yeah, it sucks.

[coover]

If Cal Poly goes 8-2 are we looking at them hosting a first round game?

Flagstaff will be coming to SLO Town.

[KAUMASS]

Is there anyone(outside of us Sky fans) that think it's possible the Big Sky gets three teams? Right now it's pretty early, but consider if NAU goes 1-1 against Weber and UM. I think this could be the one year.

Wouldn't be out of the question.....If Weber, Montana and NAU end the season with only 3 losses, and they are all in the GPI top twenty at the end of the season, there all in. (they all should be in the top twenty in the GPI with only 3 losses anyhow). (Obviously 1 autobid and 2 at large selections.)

Alot to be played out in the next month and a half..

As an east coast guy, I am excited to see a little more parity in the Big Sky this year. Weber, Montana and NAU as front runners and still 3 dangerous and unpredictable teams in Eastern Washington, Portland State & Montana State lurking to play spoilers. Great stuff...

[PantherRob82]

Big Sky: Weber State
Colonial: JMU
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
MEAC: South Carolina State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: App State
Southland: Texas State

At Large:
Elon
UNH
Villanova
Wofford
Liberty
Southern Illinois
UMASS
Northern Arizona

Holy Cross at (1) JMU
Northern Iowa at Weber State

Texas State at (4) UNH
Liberty at Villanova

Eastern Kentucky at (2) App State
Southern Illinois at Northern Arizona

South Carolina State at (3) Elon
UMASS at Wofford

#1, if we win the Valley we would not travel to Weber.
#2 , Weber would not be able to outbid us.

[Pard4Life]

I would have to agree with crusader11 and give the nod to Holy Cross as the PL champion right now... unless the Leopards can show something different in the next few games. And, I would also rank Colgate above us at this point.

A sad sign of the times, notice how the Patriot League champion is the only non-ranked team of several scenarios of conference winners and at-large berths?

If Lafayette secures a birth, I guarantee we are playing at Villanova.

[katstrapper]

Yet another observation. Sam Houston needs to win out as well. to be eligible. so... in theory, UCA wins the conference and the next two teams in the conference are ineligible... would the conference just decide who to send. and at that point only one SL team would be in the playoffs.

nevermind i answered my own question. The conference champ.. whoever it is. doesn't need the 7 DI wins.

This weekend will be a big one in the SLC as UCA is at Tx State and McNeese is at Sam Houston. Picture could be clearer after Saturday. If Kats win out, Kats will get at least a co-championship.

[LUfilmguy]

This weekend will be a big one in the SLC as UCA is at Tx State and McNeese is at Sam Houston. Picture could be clearer after Saturday. If Kats win out, Kats will get at least a co-championship.


I'll be a huge fan of the Kats and UCA this weekend xthumbsupx

[Pitz]

Is there anyone(outside of us Sky fans) that think it's possible the Big Sky gets three teams? Right now it's pretty early, but consider if NAU goes 1-1 against Weber and UM. I think this could be the one year.

This doesn't take into consideration the remaining games of the season, but things are looking good right now: www.nobowls.com