Sagarin "No Margin of Victory" top 25

[JohnStOnge]

We were discussing using vs. not using margin of victory in power rankings in another thread that was really on another topic. I'm going to post the Sagarin ELO FCS top 25 to show you what happens when he doesn't use margin of victory. At first glance it might not seem so bad. But look at it closely. Especially if you're a Missouri Valley Conference fan. I'm telling you, guys and however many gals are out there, using margin of victory is better.

1. James Madison
2. McNeese State
3. New Hampshire
4. Liberty
5. Massachusetts
6. Weber State
7. Elon
8. Montana
9. Wofford
10. Jacksonville State
11. Richmond
12. Cornell
13. Villanova
14. Furman
15. Northern Arizona
16. Appalachian State
17. Cal Poly
18. Samford
19. Delaware
20. Albany
21. Georgia Southern
22. Central Arkansas
23. Maine
24. Southern Illinois
25. Northern Iowa

[HensRock]

Jeff Sagarin himself will tell you that. That is why he includes his "Predictor" ratings which does use MOV. The BCS formula uses the ELO Chess because they do not want to use MOV - it's not P.C.

[JohnStOnge]

Jeff Sagarin himself will tell you that. That is why he includes his "Predictor" ratings which does use MOV. The BCS formula uses the ELO Chess because they do not want to use MOV - it's not P.C.

Yes. I've read that. I've also played around a lot with looking at how well different power rating systems perform. To me it's obvious that systems that do use margin of victory are better. But I keep running into people who assume that's not the case.

[HensRock]

Cognisantly choosing to ignore data is AT BEST as good as including it and that only happens if the data in question is COMPLETELY irrelevant and does not correlate at all.

Some may argue how much weight shoud be given to MOV, but no one has a valid argument to show how ignoring data can be BETTER than including it.

[ToTheLeft]

I like this poll a lot. :) I think they should base the playoff selection off of this, as it is, right now.

xwhistlex

[danefan]

Couldn't the NCAA have an MOV rating that caps the largest MOV to stroke their PC issue?


I mean if a team wins by 3 TD's or 5, its still a whoopinng. A 21 point win isn't running up the score though.

[BeauFoster]

Did Sagarin have USD way up in the rankings before the playoffs 2 years ago?

[danefan]

Did Sagarin have USD way up in the rankings before the playoffs 2 years ago?

If you mean San Diego (USD?) then I believe they were high.

They had a GPI of 16 so they had to be up there in everything.

[BeauFoster]

If you mean San Diego (USD?) then I believe they were high.

They had a GPI of 16 so they had to be up there in everything.

Yeah, I meant whale's vagina (that's not smack, it's a reference to Anchorman). I seem to remember that they were up in the top 15 in the final regular season Sagarin poll, and I'm sure that they were in the top 20 in the GPI, maybe higher. The Sagarin poll is fairly accurate at the end of the season, but doesn't mean much until 3-4 games into conference play (around week 8 or so). There just isn't enough to make the comparisons viable, IMO.