Playoff Bracketology

[TheValleyRaider]

So I'm sitting here on a Thursday, trying to avoid reading for class tomorrow, and I got to thinking about the upcoming I-AA Playoffs. Now, I know there's still a lot of games left to be played, including a ton of important ones. However, USCHO.com's forum has these threads for a few weeks before the NCAA Tournament and they're pretty popular. Of course, college hockey has some help due to the fact that teams are selected through the PairWise Rankings, and not subjected to personal choice. So how to do this for I-AA...

Here's what I've come up with:
First, take the 8 teams leading their respective conferences at this moment in time. Since in some cases there are situations where the teams that are tied have yet to play one another, best overall record will act as the tiebreaker for the time being. These will be the 8 autobids.
A-10: New Hampshire
Big Sky: Montana
Gateway: Youngstown St.
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian St.
Southland: Texas St.

Second, take 8 at-large teams. 7 of them will be the highest teams in the GPI that are playoff eligible. As per the last couple of years, the final at-large will not be from the top 8 remaining. So I've added a team not in that top 8 that could potentially be chosen.
The top 8+1 are:
1. Furman
2. UMass
3. Western Kentucky
4. Cal Poly
5. Georgia Southern
6. Eastern Washington
7. Montana State
8. Southern Illinois
+1. Coastal Carolina

In this case, I have taken Coastal Carolina because they are the next highest playoff-eligible team. In this instance, the hardest decision to make up to this point is who will be the team dropped for CCU. For this first run, I'll drop Southern Illinois because they are #8 on the list, which gives us 16 teams.

In the next post, I'll try to seed and bracket this group.

[ASU Kep]

Furman needs to lose for us to get the auto-bid, though we should be in anyway as long as we beat what will be one hell of a motivated but under-talented WCU team. If it was in Culowhee (or however you spell that) I'd be nervous.

[SeattleGriz]

Has anyone else noticed how the West bracket always starts out tougher than the East?

In the West, you basically can only get the Big Sky, Gateway and Southland to compete against each other due to geography, so they usually have to start off the first round against a stronger conference (each other).

But in the East, you get 2 and sometimes 3 weaker autobids (MEAC, OVC)that the A-10 and Southern get to warm up on.

Not trying to cause problems, just seeing if anyone else noticed that.

[TheValleyRaider]

These are our 16 playoff teams, in alphabetical order:
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Coastal Carolina
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Washington
Furman
Georgia Southern
Hampton
Lafayette
Massachusetts
Montana
Montana State
New Hampshire
Texas State
Western Kentucky
Youngstown State

I need 4 seeds, which will be some combination of GPI, regionalization, and a small dose of personal opinion.
1. New Hampshire (East)
2. Appalachian State (South)
3. Montana (West)
4. Hampton (Central)
In this case, I chose Hampton over Texas State for the #4 seed because I feel the committee is more likely to reward Hampton for being undefeated. Nothing against Texas State on my part, just a hunch at this point.

Next, come the remaining 4 home games, parcelled out on the basis of attendance, history, and GPI.
Georgia Southern
Montana State
Texas State
Youngstown State
This was probably the toughest part so far. GSU and YSU get in on being in the Top 10 in avg. attendance. MSU is 14th, averaging over 1,000 more per game than TSU and FU. Texas State is one spot above Furman in terms of attendance, and it was hard for me to give all 3 SoCon teams in the bracket a home game.

Next, we have to slot the second group of home teams opposite the seeded teams. Based more on GPI and regionalization than anything else, here goes:
#1- New Hampshire with Youngstown
#2- Appalachian State with Montana State
#3- Montana with Georgia Southern
#4- Hampton with Texas State
This was also fairly difficult. YSU has the lowest GPI of the group, so they got paired with UNH. TSU has the highest, so they're with Hampton. I originally had ASU with GSU and UM/MSU, but didn't want the potential conference matchups in the second round.

Finally, we figure out where to send the remaining teams. Correction, this is the hardest part. Regionalization plays into this heavily, along with some doses of GPI to sort it out.
Cal Poly @ Montana State
Coastal Carolina @ Appalachian State
Eastern Illinois @ Youngstown State
Eastern Washington @ Texas State
Furman @ Hampton
Lafayette @ New Hampshire
Massachusetts @ Georgia Southern
Western Kentucky @ Montana
A lot of this was pure guestimation, really. Furman, WKU, and UMass all get pretty short ends of the stick here, while YSU makes out pretty well.

As such, the bracket as constructed looks like this:
#1-New Hampshire
Lafayette

Youngstown State
Eastern Illinois

#4-Hampton
Furman

Texas State
Eastern Washington

#2-Appalachian State
Coastal Carolina

Montana State
Cal Poly

#3-Montana
Western Kentucky

Georgia Southern
Massachusetts

So, as you can see, an interesting bracket with a slightly different methodology. The biggest weakness of this is that everything is taken ATM, so it will no doubt look completely different if I did this again after Saturday's games. So have at it. If you're intrigued enough, I'll do it again next week. If you think I'm just full of it, go ahead and say so, but I've done my very best to remain as objective as possible and any percieved slights against your team are purely coincidental.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Your first mistake was picking Lafayette over Lehigh :o

[TheValleyRaider]

Do it every week until selection Sunday! Nice work!!!!

not saying I agree with your choices however

Thanks Ralph :)

Honestly, I'm not sure I completely agree with all of my choices. However, I figured if I were to construct something like this, I needed a methodology of some sort, rather than just grabbing 16 teams from the top of my head (or out of my backside, as the case may be).

[youwouldno]

This will be a lot easier after Saturday.

[AppGuy04]

yeah man, nice job, much better than i could have done

[ASU Kep]

yeah man, nice job, much better than i could have done

Ditto. And you have NO IDEA how much I like the CCU @ ASU first round pick. Oh my God, I think Ralph would have to create a whole new site for the s--t-talking that would occur before and AFTER that one.

[TexasTerror]

Great job there. The SLC champion should be a little clearer after this week when all four 2-1 teams face each other in what amounts to elimination games for all practical purposes...

[igo4uni]

not saying I agree with your choices however

Yeah, he forgot Northern Iowa!!

peace

igo4uni

[AppGuy04]

Ditto. And you have NO IDEA how much I like the CCU @ ASU first round pick. Oh my God, I think Ralph would have to create a whole new site for the s--t-talking that would occur before and AFTER that one.

I think that might be the Road Ralph first round trip

[siugrad99]

Funny how you all pick WKU and leave out SIU who BEAT WKU while they were # 1 in the country in Bowling Green 31-20 (was 31-13 until less than 2 minutes remaining). SIU is tied for the conference lead with WKU who they beat and YSU who they play tomorrow. Guess we will know then.

[AppGuy04]

Funny how you all pick WKU and leave out SIU who BEAT WKU while they were # 1 in the country in Bowling Green 31-20 (was 31-13 until less than 2 minutes remaining). SIU is tied for the conference lead with WKU who they beat and YSU who they play tomorrow. Guess we will know then.

thats why most of these are purely conjecture, especially since the power conferences are so tight this year, most will come down to the last 2 games, if not the last second of the last game

[FU97]

Ditto. And you have NO IDEA how much I like the CCU @ ASU first round pick. Oh my God, I think Ralph would have to create a whole new site for the s--t-talking that would occur before and AFTER that one.

They can't play in the first round since they played during the regular season already. Coastal will be at Furman in the first round of the playoffs.

[AppGuy04]

They can't play in the first round since they played during the regular season already. Coastal will be at Furman in the first round of the playoffs.

is there a rule anywhere that states this?

[FU97]

is there a rule anywhere that states this?

Not 100% sure, but It probably is related to the can't play your conference rival in the first round.

EDIT: I looked in the 2005 Playoff Handbook and there was no specific rule about this in there. I would think that they would try and avoid it at all costs however.

[AppGuy04]

Not 100% sure, but It probably is related to the can't play your conference rival in the first round.

EDIT: I looked in the 2005 Playoff Handbook and there was no specific rule about this in there. I would think that they would try and avoid it at all costs however.

Coastal and App are not in the same conference

[FU97]

Coastal and App are not in the same conference

No **** sherlock. But since they have played this year, I highly doubt the Committee would want to match them up again in the 1st round of the playoffs.

[Tribe4SF]

Can't wait to see how many changes there are after this weekend. No apple cart is safe this year. :eek:

[TheValleyRaider]

No **** sherlock. But since they have played this year, I highly doubt the Committee would want to match them up again in the 1st round of the playoffs.

You're probably right that they would try to avoid that matchup in the 1st Round. However, by the time I had gotten so far as to slot the away teams, I was weighting geography as heavily as possible, so CCU going to App St. made the most sense. CCU is also ranked low enough that a trip to the #2 seeded team is reasonable, I think. Again, there's still plenty of conjecture within this.

[OL FU]

No **** sherlock. But since they have played this year, I highly doubt the Committee would want to match them up again in the 1st round of the playoffs.

And besides that a 9-2 Furman team would play at home at least once. 8-3 is a different matter.

[FU97]

And besides that a 9-2 Furman team would play at home at least once. 8-3 is a different matter.

Er, I think you mean 10-1 Furman team would be at home. :D

[Cocky]

And besides that a 9-2 Furman team would play at home at least once. 8-3 is a different matter.

Why is everyone so sure GSU will beat FU?

I just don't see the SOCON getting 3 teams over the A-10 or the BSC.
If it comes down to the Gate v SOCON maybe the SOCON gets the third but the PL may get a second instead of either getting the third.

[OL FU]

Er, I think you mean 10-1 Furman team would be at home. :D

:) I was working off Raider's assumptions, but yes a 10-1 Furman plays three at home.

[OL FU]

Why is everyone so sure GSU will beat FU?

I just don't see the SOCON getting 3 teams over the A-10 or the BSC.
If it comes down to the Gate v SOCON maybe the SOCON gets the third but the PL may get a second instead of either getting the third.

Everyone thinks GSU is going to beat FU because
(1) it is a Paulson and
(2) GSU has started putting up lots of points again.

(1) is a good consideration.
(2) is one we will have to wait and see. They were putting up lost of points before the ASU game, also.

But if GSU and ASU are 8-3 and FU is 9-2. The SoCon gets three.

[Black and Gold Express]

No **** sherlock. But since they have played this year, I highly doubt the Committee would want to match them up again in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Considering they did that in 2000 by rematching ASU and Troy State in the first round (they met early in the 2000 regular season), I think you can feel very comfortable that they aren't against doing that.

[Saint3333]

Furman fans just want CCU, but hey don't we all. ;)

[JALMOND]

Thanks Ralph :)

Honestly, I'm not sure I completely agree with all of my choices. However, I figured if I were to construct something like this, I needed a methodology of some sort, rather than just grabbing 16 teams from the top of my head (or out of my backside, as the case may be).

Pretty well thought out (are you on the committee?). In the case of Cal Poly playing Montana State and Coastal playing App State, I don't know if they would be willing to match up two teams in the first round that had played against each other during the season.

I am not 100% sold on Cal Poly making it. A tough schedule coming up and their QB is not healthy (if he is even playing). Very unfortunate because the Mustangs were on the verge of a great year.

Anyway, given those teams, send Cal Poly to App State and Coastal to Montana State (the committee sent Portland State to Delaware in the first round a few years back). That might work. I'm just being picky, you did a great job here.

[Eaglegus2]

How about Coastal getting a home game and sending Georgia Southern to Myrtle Beach? :D :nod: :nod:

[colgate13]

Great job valleyraider!

I don't think many on this board follow college hockey, so the USCHO.com 'bracketology' style prediction is probably new to them. Having followed college hockey, you do a pretty nice job of what they do over there. Me likey. Keep it up! Fun and entertaining!

[Jaques]

How about Coastal getting a home game and sending Georgia Southern to Myrtle Beach? :D :nod: :nod:

There's nothing wrong with trying. I hear that we are going to submit a bid.
App fans don't have a panic attack :eek: ...we all know that's a long shot, but like i said...nothing wrong with trying. :D

[Cincy App]

Anyway, given those teams, send Cal Poly to App State and Coastal to Montana State (the committee sent Portland State to Delaware in the first round a few years back). That might work. I'm just being picky, you did a great job here.

First of all, good job Raider. If those happen to be the 16 teams, then the pairings are logical.

Jalmond, I would agree that the Committee will try to avoid first round rematches but travel costs and regionalization will rule. Don't expect a swap like you suggested. By the way, the PSU-Delaware game was before regionalization.

[PantherMan]

These are our 16 playoff teams, in alphabetical order:
Appalachian State
Cal Poly
Coastal Carolina
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Washington
Furman
Georgia Southern
Hampton
Lafayette
Massachusetts
Montana
Montana State
New Hampshire
Texas State
Western Kentucky
Youngstown State

I need 4 seeds, which will be some combination of GPI, regionalization, and a small dose of personal opinion.
1. New Hampshire (East)
2. Appalachian State (South)
3. Montana (West)
4. Hampton (Central)
In this case, I chose Hampton over Texas State for the #4 seed because I feel the committee is more likely to reward Hampton for being undefeated. Nothing against Texas State on my part, just a hunch at this point.

Next, come the remaining 4 home games, parcelled out on the basis of attendance, history, and GPI.
Georgia Southern
Montana State
Texas State
Youngstown State
This was probably the toughest part so far. GSU and YSU get in on being in the Top 10 in avg. attendance. MSU is 14th, averaging over 1,000 more per game than TSU and FU. Texas State is one spot above Furman in terms of attendance, and it was hard for me to give all 3 SoCon teams in the bracket a home game.

Next, we have to slot the second group of home teams opposite the seeded teams. Based more on GPI and regionalization than anything else, here goes:
#1- New Hampshire with Youngstown
#2- Appalachian State with Montana State
#3- Montana with Georgia Southern
#4- Hampton with Texas State
This was also fairly difficult. YSU has the lowest GPI of the group, so they got paired with UNH. TSU has the highest, so they're with Hampton. I originally had ASU with GSU and UM/MSU, but didn't want the potential conference matchups in the second round.

Finally, we figure out where to send the remaining teams. Correction, this is the hardest part. Regionalization plays into this heavily, along with some doses of GPI to sort it out.
Cal Poly @ Montana State
Coastal Carolina @ Appalachian State
Eastern Illinois @ Youngstown State
Eastern Washington @ Texas State
Furman @ Hampton
Lafayette @ New Hampshire
Massachusetts @ Georgia Southern
Western Kentucky @ Montana
A lot of this was pure guestimation, really. Furman, WKU, and UMass all get pretty short ends of the stick here, while YSU makes out pretty well.

As such, the bracket as constructed looks like this:
#1-New Hampshire
Lafayette

Youngstown State
Eastern Illinois

#4-Hampton
Furman

Texas State
Eastern Washington

#2-Appalachian State
Coastal Carolina

Montana State
Cal Poly

#3-Montana
Western Kentucky

Georgia Southern
Massachusetts

So, as you can see, an interesting bracket with a slightly different methodology. The biggest weakness of this is that everything is taken ATM, so it will no doubt look completely different if I did this again after Saturday's games. So have at it. If you're intrigued enough, I'll do it again next week. If you think I'm just full of it, go ahead and say so, but I've done my very best to remain as objective as possible and any percieved slights against your team are purely coincidental.

That's a lot of thought out, well done work there my friend. The only team that I can see that is not included that probably will make the playoffs would be SIU. Other than that, not too shabby. Oh yeah, and after UNI wins the next 3 games, you can add us too ;)

[GrizSweeper]

Cal Poly doesn't make it

[eaglesrthe1]

They can't play in the first round since they played during the regular season already. Coastal will be at Furman in the first round of the playoffs.


From the NCAA site:

The top four teams in the 16-team bracket for the championship will be seeded. Team pairings will be determined by geographical proximity,with the exception that teams from the same conference may not be paired in the first round.


So the facts are:
1) IF App St is seeded...and
2) CCU is the closest non-seeded, non-conference team selected for the playoffs...then
3) ASU vs CCU would be a certainty.

[ASU Kep]

thats what I was thinking.

GATA EAGLES!!!

Man that'd be a great first rounder. I just wonder how much attendance will be hurt with the first round being over thanksgiving and all...but I guess everybody's gotta deal with that. I for one will cut my break short.

Please beat the Vermin.

[Saint3333]

First round playoff attendance is hurt by two factors:
1) timely, game is playing of Thanksgiving weekend (no students in town and everyone traveling to see family and friends)
2) students don't get in for free even if they do come back early.

I think you can typically take a teams average attendance for the year multiplied by 60-70% for these games.

[SuperJon]

What's this students don't get in free? I don't like that. I'm broke. I doubt we'll host but still, I'm broke and wanna get in free if we do host. Jacques and CoastalFan2005 don't even mention it that you guys would get in free. That is unless, of course, Jacques wants to hook me up with some type of pass if we do get a home game (huge if, but hey, we can all have dreams).

[eaglesrthe1]

thats what I was thinking.

GATA EAGLES!!!

Man that'd be a great first rounder. I just wonder how much attendance will be hurt with the first round being over thanksgiving and all...but I guess everybody's gotta deal with that. I for one will cut my break short.

Please beat the Vermin.


Don't forget about the possibility of SCSU making the cut. 230m vs 317m for CCSU

[GASIUalum]

if geographical proximity is used to determine the seeded, unseeded matchups, how the heck did #1 SIU get EWU last year? Jax State has to be closer

[skinny_uncle]

if geographical proximity is used to determine the seeded, unseeded matchups, how the heck did #1 SIU get EWU last year? Jax State has to be closer
I think the NCAA has a different map. It somehow involves wormholes.
:D

[JALMOND]

if geographical proximity is used to determine the seeded, unseeded matchups, how the heck did #1 SIU get EWU last year? Jax State has to be closer

I think the committee has the Gateway and the Southland included with the Big Sky (and the Great West) in the West region. SIU is Gateway, EWU is Big Sky.

[GASIUalum]

I think the committee has the Gateway and the Southland included with the Big Sky (and the Great West) in the West region. SIU is Gateway, EWU is Big Sky.


thanks J

[FlyYtown]

SIU beats YSU but still YSU has the outside shot; they play at home (5-0) vs Western Kentucky in what sounds and looks like to be a very big crowd. Lets hope the fact we were predicted to finish 6th in the Gateway and we have a great attendance base we could sneak into the playoffs that is if we were to win.

W. Kentucky still plays FLA International (I-A) but has been a very shaky I-A Team; they play like the worst the MAC puts on the field and if they could beat them they and SIU would make it.

3 Gateway Teams? Unlikely but who knows?

[siugrad99]

As long as SIU wins 1 of their last 2 that will secure their spot in the playoffs. They can do no worse than tie for the championship of the Gateway and even if they lose at UNI (good possibility) they go out and take care of business vs. a solid NDSU team and we are 8-3 with an at large which probably leave WKU & YSU on the outside looking in at this point, but there are 2 weeks left to play and ANYTHING can happen.

[ronpayne]

I hope that you'll post after this weekends games - great results this weekend. Couple of points I might add:

(Somebody asked) Students don't get in free because the NCAA doesn't allow it. Stinks too -they do that for the HS playoffs as well.

App vs. CCU is probably a good likelyhood now, with FU losing.... its close, its a rematch, and its non-conference. I like it being in Boone, the gameday atmosphere has been very much improved this year - not sure if its the new AD or what, but I think that will drive attendance. I'm going to shoot long and say sellout, and buy my tickets early!

Random note: on resetting a game already played (the ASU vs CCU game) to be played again in the playoffs, how this: my high school where I'm the band dir beat our rival hs this past friday for our regular season home finale. Playoffs start this week, and guess who we host at our house in the round one: the same team we beat this week. What gives!

Great bracketology though - very solid reasoning. Help me write my thesis for my masters, because you've got some good stuff!

Yay Band! ;)

[Stang Fever]

Cal Poly doesn't make it

WHat do you mean by this...even though we already know Poly beat Eastern....were you saying that Poly will lose to Eastern so they wont be in


As for the brackets people put up....The only problem i saw was having Both Poly and Eastern in...Only one will make it.....and if Eastern wins it that means you have to take out Montana St or Montana out of the Big Sky because three teams will not make it this year

[rokamortis]

App vs. CCU is probably a good likelyhood now, with FU losing.... its close, its a rematch, and its non-conference. I like it being in Boone, the gameday atmosphere has been very much improved this year - not sure if its the new AD or what, but I think that will drive attendance. I'm going to shoot long and say sellout, and buy my tickets early!

Actually I think it is less of a chance now that GSU lost - I think 3 SoCon teams make it now. If we are fortunate enough to make the playoffs then GSU and Furman are closer to us than ASU. They may want to use ASU for one of the Gateway teams.

I think a rematch would be very interesting though and hope we at least give you guys a game.

[vistamn]

Yeah, he forgot Northern Iowa!!

peace

igo4uni

Overlooking the UNI Panthers will be the biggest error one can make.