Playoff Prognostications - 10/5

[TexasTerror]

Not sure Cal Poly can put an impressive record together to muster the support of the commitee. I put SHSU in there because I believe the Kats can get a split against McN and UCA while winning out -- the SLC just does not impress me.

Also, Montana...they lost to Weber State. The game circled for the Griz is a home contest against NAU. Lucky for them they have all their tough games at home. They play the games too close and found ways to win, now I am concerned that they may have problems getting the 'W's.

Please rip at me all you want! :)

Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MVFC: Illinois State
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jax State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Wofford
Southland: McNeese

At-Large:
1) Weber State
2) Liberty
3) New Hampshire
4) Villanova
5) Northern Iowa
6) Elon
7) Appalachian State
8) Sam Houston State

Bracket
Liberty at (1) James Madison
Villanova at Appalachian State

Lafayette at (4) New Hampshire
Illinois State at Elon

Jacksonville State (3) Northern Arizona
Weber State at McNeese

Hampton at (2) Wofford
Sam Houston State at Northern Iowa

[Grizzaholic]

No EWU and no MT, I can understand the No MT but EWU has an offense that will put up enough points if they don't turn the ball over a bunch to win the games that their D decides to hit the showers early.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

No Richmond? That's bold.

[mcveyrl]

No Richmond? That's bold.

That was puzzling to me too.

[Old Cage]

As usual, a prognosticator located south of the Hudson River doesn't include UMass.

[TexasTerror]

No Richmond? That's bold.

They'll get a chance to prove themselves these next two weeks - James Madison and at UMass. Like SHSU, who will have the same chance -- UCA and McNeese. However, being the homer that I am, had to give the nod to SHSU until they prove otherwise (which could come this week!).

Trying to stir the discussion some by excluding teams, but I do have reasoning.

[TexasTerror]

As usual, a prognosticator located south of the Hudson River doesn't include UMass.

Albany. Delaware. Holy Cross.

Got any wins outside of U-Dub to impress me with? Beating Richmond at home and New Hampshire on the road.

FYI -- let me tell you now that beating Bryant won't change my perception nor will a win over N'Eastern...

[IaaScribe]

No EWU and no MT, I can understand the No MT but EWU has an offense that will put up enough points if they don't turn the ball over a bunch to win the games that their D decides to hit the showers early.

Eastern has to win out just to get to 7 DI wins. I don't think that will happen.

[Grizzaholic]

Eastern has to win out just to get to 7 DI wins. I don't think that will happen.

I was just looking that up on the other page. I posted this before I noticed that EWU lost yesterday.

[UNHWildCats]

No EWU and no MT, I can understand the No MT but EWU has an offense that will put up enough points if they don't turn the ball over a bunch to win the games that their D decides to hit the showers early.
If eastern washington loses one more game, they wont be able to reach 7 Div I wins

[TexasTerror]

If eastern washington loses one more game, they wont be able to reach 7 Div I wins

Yep -- and still have games at Weber State and home vs Montana and Northern Arizona...they won't be dancing unless they can win the games necessary to win the auto.

[BisonBacker]

Not sure Cal Poly can put an impressive record together to muster the support of the commitee. I put SHSU in there because I believe the Kats can get a split against McN and UCA while winning out -- the SLC just does not impress me.

Also, Montana...they lost to Weber State. The game circled for the Griz is a home contest against NAU. Lucky for them they have all their tough games at home. They play the games too close and found ways to win, now I am concerned that they may have problems getting the 'W's.

Please rip at me all you want! :)

Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MVFC: Illinois State
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jax State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Wofford
Southland: McNeese

At-Large:
1) Weber State
2) Liberty
3) New Hampshire
4) Villanova
5) Northern Iowa
6) Elon
7) Appalachian State
8) Sam Houston State

Bracket
Liberty at (1) James Madison
Villanova at Appalachian State

Lafayette at (4) New Hampshire
Illinois State at Elon

Jacksonville State (3) Northern Arizona
Weber State at McNeese

Hampton at (2) Wofford
Sam Houston State at Northern Iowa

All I had to read was Ill. State for the MVFC and I didn't need to look at your picks any further. Do you know anything about the MVFC? xoopsx

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

All I had to read was Ill. State for the MVFC and I didn't need to look at your picks any further. Do you know anything about the MVFC? xoopsx


No sh**......Ill State as the MV champ....LOL

[uofmman1122]

I don't think TT is actually serious with these picks.

Either that, or he's doing the most outlandish picks on the off chance that if he's right, he can tell everyone that he is a genius. xlolx

[BisonBacker]

I don't think TT is actually serious with these picks.

Either that, or he's doing the most outlandish picks on the off chance that if he's right, he can tell everyone that he is a genius. xlolx

I think your right. I've seen him post before and can't remember him being so far out there. Must not have been able to see the keyboard when he made those picks or was still drunk from yesterday.xlolx

[TexasTerror]

If you've read my prognostications before -- I make sure to note that I'm trying to stir the discussion (hence why I put SHSU in over a certain CAA team)...I'm just one of the only ones brave enough to even think of posting prognostications this early. :)

I'm very aware of the race in the Missouri Valley and I doubt Illinois State will be undefeated and in first place much longer... xlolx

[uofmman1122]

I'll give my own:

Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MVFC: North Dakota State
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jax State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: McNeese

At-Large:
1) Cal Poly
2) Richmond
3) Villanova
4) Montana
5) Northern Iowa
6) Elon
7) Wofford
8) Massachusetts

Bracket (Winners Bolded):

Hampton at (1) James Madison
Villanova at North Dakota State

Richmond at (4) Cal Poly
Massachusetts at Elon

Weber State at (3) McNeese
Lafayette at Montana

Jax State at (2) ASU
Wofford at Northern Iowa

xwhistlex

[Maroon&White]

Albany. Delaware. Holy Cross.

Got any wins outside of U-Dub to impress me with? Beating Richmond at home and New Hampshire on the road.

FYI -- let me tell you now that beating Bryant won't change my perception nor will a win over N'Eastern...

Weber St: Montana-Western, Dixie State, Montana

Got any wins outside of Montana to impress me with?

New Hampshire: Got ANY wins to impress me with??

Northern Iowa: South Dakota, South Dakota State, Nicholls State.

Got any wins outside of South Dakota State to impress me with?

Appalachian State: Jacksonville, Presbyterian, Citadel

Got any wins outside of Citadel to impress me with?

Sam Houston: Got ANY wins to impress me with??

[UNHWildCats]

Really.... Cal Poly in over UNH?

[TexasTerror]

Really.... Cal Poly in over UNH?

Won't be much longer until Cal Poly essentially is eliminated from the postseason... xnodx

Don't worry, UNHWildcats... xcoolx

[uofmman1122]

Really.... Cal Poly in over UNH?There were about 5 teams that could be interchanged in my prediction. Right now it's too early to tell, but if Cal Poly only loses to Wisconsin from here on out, yes, I'd put them in.

[IABison]

Interesting pick of Northern Iowa for an at large bid. Ask any UNI fan. They haven't ever had an at-large bid. xoopsx

[Edge316007]

Appalachian State: Jacksonville, Presbyterian, Citadel

Got any wins outside of Citadel to impress me with?


Kind of hard when the only other game they've played (minus LSU) is JMU whom they lost by only 3 to. And it was on the road. And JMU is a very strong #1 right now.

But you're right. Stomping the #12 team by almost 4 TDs isn't that impressive xrolleyesx

[Maroon&White]

Kind of hard when the only other game they've played (minus LSU) is JMU whom they lost by only 3 to. And it was on the road. And JMU is a very strong #1 right now.

But you're right. Stomping the #12 team by almost 4 TDs isn't that impressive xrolleyesx

You completely missed the point.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I agree with most of TT's picks. here are my changes.

Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MVFC: Illinois State
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jax State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State -they are playing very well and they have Furman, Wofford, and Elon at home.
Southland: McNeese

At-Large:
1) Richmond instead of Weber State Two more losses and WSU will not have 7 DI wins. I just don't think WSU can do it.
2) North Dakota State instead of Liberty Liberty finishes with a good record but unless they are undefeated they do not get in IMO. And I really don't think they will win out
3) Georgia Southern instead of New Hampshire This is my obvious homer pick. We will somehow manage to beat App. State at home and The Citadel and Furman on the road. I had to either pick them over 'Nova or UNH and I give the benefit of the doubt to Nova for beating Richmond.
xhomerx
4) Villanova
5) Northern Iowa
6) Elon
7) Wofford see App. State in the AQ section
8) Sam Houston State

[ToTheLeft]

Really? 11-1 (9-1 against FCS) with wins over Coastal, Youngstown, and Lafayette, and the only loss to Elon, wouldn't be enough to get in? (And that's not me conceding the loss to Elon, that's just using your logic)

Sheesh. Tough Crowd.

[Edge316007]

You completely missed the point.

You're right, I did. That's what I get for just scanning the thread.

[crunifan]

Interesting pick of Northern Iowa for an at large bid. Ask any UNI fan. They haven't ever had an at-large bid. xoopsx

No kidding! There is a reason we have won the MVC 13 times, because we can't get into the playoffs otherwise.

[Jacks76]

Weber looked good against Montana, but they give up way too many points. Question marks about their defense abound. We'll see in the coming weeks what they are made of.

Paul

[BisonBacker]

No kidding! There is a reason we have won the MVC 13 times, because we can't get into the playoffs otherwise.

Naw you just won it that many times cuz NDSU and SDSU weren't in the conference before now.xthumbsupx

[Reign of Terrier]

At this point Elon is the most complete team in the Socon. I still don't think they'll win it. If App state learns to play 4 quarters of great football they are the best. If Wofford's pass D can improve against, let's face it, lesser opponents and carry it over against Elon and App they will be the best.

Right now, I think, those are the only three teams that can make the playoffs. Sorry Furman and The Citadel but when was the last time a Socon team lost a conference game by 20+ points and made the playoffs?

[Reign of Terrier]

Really? 11-1 (9-1 against FCS) with wins over Coastal, Youngstown, and Lafayette, and the only loss to Elon, wouldn't be enough to get in? (And that's not me conceding the loss to Elon, that's just using your logic)

Sheesh. Tough Crowd.

Liberty will get in the playoffs but I can only see them getting to the quarterfinal at the most.

[drpnut]

SoCon Playoff take:

I still believe the champ will have 2 league losses.

Appy could finish with only one since most of their tough games are at the Rock. They still have to go to Ga South.

Woffy plays well at Kidd and could knock Appy off. Woffy has ElCid and Furple at home and has to go on the road to Elon. They could lose only one, but that might be a stretch. They have to go to Samford late and those guys probably will be playing well by then.

Elon will lose two I believe, may starting this weekend at ELCid.

Same for Furple, at least two losses cause Woffy will get them at Sparkle City.

GaSouth will probably lose one more, but could run the table. Appy comes to Statesboro, so it could be interesting.

ElCid will lose two more, take your pick of the teams.

Samford will finish 3-5 or 4-4

It will be interesing.


Moving on..

I think Montana will get in because of their past and lose in the first round again.

EWU gets left out.

The PAtriot League is a mess, with the auto-bid going to a team with 5 overall losses like a couple of years ago.

MV-- SIU is in trouble...

OVC-- Jax looks good as does TennTEch.

Liberty will have a shot to get in.

McNeese makes it but loses early.

NDSU gets in.


Holla

[Reign of Terrier]

SoCon Playoff take:

I still believe the champ will have 2 league losses.

Appy could finish with only one since most of their tough games are at the Rock. They still have to go to Ga South.

Woffy plays well at Kidd and could knock Appy off. Woffy has ElCid and Furple at home and has to go on the road to Elon. They could lose only one, but that might be a stretch. They have to go to Samford late and those guys probably will be playing well by then.

Elon will lose two I believe, may starting this weekend at ELCid.

Same for Furple, at least two losses cause Woffy will get them at Sparkle City.

GaSouth will probably lose one more, but could run the table. Appy comes to Statesboro, so it could be interesting.

ElCid will lose two more, take your pick of the teams.

Samford will finish 3-5 or 4-4

It will be interesing.



I think the champ will have one loss and the runner ups tied for second with two losses. Believe it or not GSU is still in this thing. Think about it:
GSU wins out Elon and Wofford win out. GSU's third with 8-3 behind 10-1 or 9-2 wofford and 11-1 or 10-2 Elon. On their resume-3rd in conference behind Woco and Elon and they lost by a combine of 3 points and they lost to Georgia. It's a stretch but it's possible.

Chatty and Western are out already, GSU is still a loss away, The citadel can't drop more than a game, Samford is going to be booted out early but are still dangerous, Furman still has a little hope (but when has a Socon team lost by 20+ points and made the playoffs?). Wofford, Elon, and App control their own destiny and aren't in any hole yet.

[ASU_MBA]

To early for playoff talk....
JMU still has to beat Delaware, Richmond and Villanova....don't crown them yet....a lose late is worse than a lose early in terms of rankings....JMU could still be coming to the Rock come Nov./Dec.

I feel good about App except Ga Southern on the road....
Wofford beating us at home on Halloween night nationally televised....will be a hard one for them....so if we don't screw up against Elon or Ga. Southern I feel okay.

I still think we could see App and JMU each lose one more game and Mcneese or New Hampshire be the 1 seed.

just way too early for this...

[DB_Atlantic10]

Really? 11-1 (9-1 against FCS) with wins over Coastal, Youngstown, and Lafayette, and the only loss to Elon, wouldn't be enough to get in? (And that's not me conceding the loss to Elon, that's just using your logic)

Sheesh. Tough Crowd.
I think Liberty gets in with the teams they are beating and the way they are currently playing.....

[DB_Atlantic10]

I think the champ will have one loss and the runner ups tied for second with two losses. Believe it or not GSU is still in this thing. Think about it:
GSU wins out Elon and Wofford win out. GSU's third with 8-3 behind 10-1 or 9-2 wofford and 11-1 or 10-2 Elon. On their resume-3rd in conference behind Woco and Elon and they lost by a combine of 3 points and they lost to Georgia. It's a stretch but it's possible.

Chatty and Western are out already, GSU is still a loss away, The citadel can't drop more than a game, Samford is going to be booted out early but are still dangerous, Furman still has a little hope (but when has a Socon team lost by 20+ points and made the playoffs?). Wofford, Elon, and App control their own destiny and aren't in any hole yet. Now just add one loss to each of them from APP St. and see how it looks......xlolx

[UNHWildCats]

I agree with most of TT's picks. here are my changes.

Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MVFC: Illinois State
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jax State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State -they are playing very well and they have Furman, Wofford, and Elon at home.
Southland: McNeese

At-Large:
1) Richmond instead of Weber State Two more losses and WSU will not have 7 DI wins. I just don't think WSU can do it.
2) North Dakota State instead of Liberty Liberty finishes with a good record but unless they are undefeated they do not get in IMO. And I really don't think they will win out
3) Georgia Southern instead of New Hampshire This is my obvious homer pick. We will somehow manage to beat App. State at home and The Citadel and Furman on the road. I had to either pick them over 'Nova or UNH and I give the benefit of the doubt to Nova for beating Richmond.
xhomerx
4) Villanova
5) Northern Iowa
6) Elon
7) Wofford see App. State in the AQ section
8) Sam Houston State
a 3-3 Georgia Southern over a 4-0 UNH?

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx


I know I know, UNH has played a weak schedule.... but exactly who of note has Georgia Southern beaten?

Austin Peay? 0-6.

Northeastern? 2-3.

Chattanooga? xlolx xlolx xlolx

[crusader11]

Here we go.

Big Sky: Weber State
Colonial: JMU
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
MEAC: South Carolina State
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: App State
Southland: McNeese State

At Large:
Elon
UNH
Villanova
Wofford
Liberty
Richmond
UMASS
Furman

Holy Cross at (1) JMU
Northern Iowa at Weber State

Furman at (4) UNH
Liberty at Villanova

Jacksonville State at (2) App State
Richmond at McNeese State

South Carolina State at (3) Elon
UMASS at Wofford

[stevdock]

Austen Peay hasn't won yet huh?? Damn, well hope CCSU has done better to help our non-conference schedule look better. :)

[stevdock]

Here we go.

Big Sky: Weber State
Colonial: JMU
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
MEAC: South Carolina State
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: App State
Southland: McNeese State

At Large:
Elon
UNH
Villanova
Wofford
Liberty
Richmond
UMASS
Furman

Holy Cross at (1) JMU
Northern Iowa at Weber State

Furman at (4) UNH
Liberty at Villanova

Jacksonville State at (2) App State
Richmond at McNeese State

South Carolina State at (3) Elon
UMASS at Wofford

Not even one at large further than an hour or so off the East Coast?? Seems kinda strange to me. I don't think we've earned it yet, but you'd think you could find someone out here to put in there.

[crusader11]

Not even one at large further than an hour or so off the East Coast?? Seems kinda strange to me. I don't think we've earned it yet, but you'd think you could find someone out here to put in there.

Say East Coast bias or what have you, but right now, these teams are more deserving than most of the teams on the bubble out West. Also, the two my competitive and beast conferences by far are the CAA and SoCon, which is why if a team has compiled a solid record in the conference, they deserve to go to the playoffs more than a team from the Big Sky or MVC with a similar resumé.

[dbackjon]

Here we go.

Big Sky: Weber State
Colonial: JMU
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
MEAC: South Carolina State
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: App State
Southland: McNeese State

At Large:
Elon
UNH
Villanova
Wofford
Liberty
Richmond
UMASS
Furman

Holy Cross at (1) JMU
Northern Iowa at Weber State

Furman at (4) UNH
Liberty at Villanova

Jacksonville State at (2) App State
Richmond at McNeese State

South Carolina State at (3) Elon
UMASS at Wofford

No at large from the Big Sky???

[Maroon&White]

Holy Cross at (1) JMU
Northern Iowa at Weber State

Furman at (4) UNH
Liberty at Villanova


I always seem to forget how matchups are decided but...

Why wouldn't HC be playing at UNH?

[crusader11]

I should note that my last 2 in were UMASS and Furman, and last 2 out were Eastern Washington and Cal Poly. This is just for you to gage my thought process on the teams that were on the bubble. And, I would think that most agree that UMASS and Furman, are, at this point in the season, better football teams than EW and Poly.

[crusader11]

I always seem to forget how matchups are decided but...

Why wouldn't HC be playing at UNH?

Traditionally, the PL winner plays the CAA winner. Since UNH got an at-large, rather than an automatic, JMU plays the PL winner.

[dbackjon]

Say East Coast bias or what have you, but right now, these teams are more deserving than most of the teams on the bubble out West. Also, the two my competitive and beast conferences by far are the CAA and SoCon, which is why if a team has compiled a solid record in the conference, they deserve to go to the playoffs more than a team from the Big Sky or MVC with a similar resumé.

in your perception.


Big Sky and MVC conferences are as every bit competitive and deep as the SC or CAA.

[crusader11]

No at large from the Big Sky???

I was thinking about NAU, but it is hard for me to tell how good they actually are when playing mediocre competition at best. The New Mexico Highlands and Northern Colorado just don't do it for me. Not only that, but they barely got by NC.

[Maroon&White]

Traditionally, the PL winner plays the CAA winner. Since UNH got an at-large, rather than an automatic, JMU plays the PL winner.

Ok. I was just going off of the last two years when UMass hosted Fordham and Lafayette. I thought it was more based on location then the Patriot League winner playing the A10/CAA "winner" (Just so the other teams don't complain :D).

[stevdock]

Say East Coast bias or what have you, but right now, these teams are more deserving than most of the teams on the bubble out West. Also, the two my competitive and beast conferences by far are the CAA and SoCon, which is why if a team has compiled a solid record in the conference, they deserve to go to the playoffs more than a team from the Big Sky or MVC with a similar resumé.

Very interesting. I appreciate your thoughts on this. We just got our first top-notch win yesterday. I would have thought though that we would be ahead of both Cal Poly and EW on your list since both of those teams pretty much have to run the table to even be eligible for the playoffs. I'm guessing that we can still be at 8-3 and get into the playoffs.

Right now though doesn't matter much. If we take care of business, especially the next couple weeks it will all take care of itself.

[LehighFan11]

I think Cal Poly deserves to get in.

[dbackjon]

I was thinking about NAU, but it is hard for me to tell how good they actually are when playing mediocre competition at best. The New Mexico Highlands and Northern Colorado just don't do it for me. Not only that, but they barely got by NC.


NAU destroyed Sac St. UNC has lost three games in the last second. Good Team, bad luck.

NAU beat SUU at SUU, something YSU couldn't do. The same YSU that beat up on NDSU.

So SUU is mediocre?

[elonpuckhog]

As much as I would love Elon to host a playoff game, I highly doubt that will happen...

[NDB]

NAU destroyed Sac St. UNC has lost three games in the last second. Good Team, bad luck.

NAU beat SUU at SUU, something YSU couldn't do. The same YSU that beat up on NDSU.

So SUU is mediocre?

the law of transitivity doesn't apply to football.

[CopperCat]

WAY too early for this stuff. Some teams only have one conference game under their belt.xcoffeex

[crusader11]

Just a good topic of conversation if nothing else though.

[stevdock]

WAY too early for this stuff. Some teams only have one conference game under their belt.xcoffeex

Exactly!!!!!!!

[Poly Pigskin]

And, I would think that most agree that UMASS and Furman, are, at this point in the season, better football teams than EW and Poly.

Well going into this week EW and CP were ranked well ahead of Umass and Furman in the AGS Poll. Obviously EWU will drop pretty far, but there's no way they're both leapfrogging Poly.

So no, I don't think most would agree with you that they are better football teams.

[dbackjon]

the law of transitivity doesn't apply to football.

not entirely, you are correct. But since there are very few inter-regional match-ups, they are the best that we have to compare conferences at this point.

[FurmanPaladins4138]

Sorry Furman and The Citadel but when was the last time a Socon team lost a conference game by 20+ points and made the playoffs?

2 years ago Furman lost 40-7 to App St. and made the playoffs.

[TheBisonator]

TexasTerror, will you have NDSU in the playoffs in your predictions if we beat WIU next week??

[TexasTerror]

TexasTerror, will you have NDSU in the playoffs in your predictions if we beat WIU next week??

Not sure. Depends what happens across the landscape. A SHSU loss to UCA would open a spot for instance...

NDSU does have UNI after WIU...that may definitely do the trick. xnodx

[Reign of Terrier]

2 years ago Furman lost 40-7 to App St. and made the playoffs.

My bad.

[PhantomCAT]

xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex

HOW BOUT THEM BOBCATS


xsmiley_wix xsmiley_wix xsmiley_wix xsmiley_wix

[gophoenix]

WAY too early for this stuff. Some teams only have one conference game under their belt.xcoffeex

I know, just what i was thinking.

[IaaScribe]

A lot of these SoCon and MVC teams are going to struggle to get to 7 DI wins just because they keep beating up on each other. That'll probably open the door for someone like Liberty or a second team from the OVC.

Just looking at a few cases ...
El Cid needs five more wins, so it must win out at home and then beat either Furman or Wofford on the road.

Furman needs to win four out of six, so it needs to sweep El Cid, WCU and GaSo at home and sneak a roadie at (most likely) Samford, App State or Wofford.

South Dakota State needs four more DI wins, so that means they'll probably have to beat Cal Poly at home and knock off either NDSU or SIU on the road.

WIU needs to win five out of six, which means they need to knock off NDSU or SIU on the road.

Cal Poly must win every game it plays save for Wisconsin to get to seven. The SDSU game is essentially an elimination game, since the Mustangs should win the rest at home easily.

[ur2k]

As much as I would love Elon to host a playoff game, I highly doubt that will happen...

I think you should host us again (party at the firehouse field!!!)

Oh wait, according to the Texas Terror, Richmond won't get in the playoffs but Sam Houston State will.

[TexasTerror]

Oh wait, according to the Texas Terror, Richmond won't get in the playoffs but Sam Houston State will.

Have to mix it up some! I made it clear why I put SHSU in and kept the Spiders out earlier in this thread...xcoffeex

I don't see you putting together any prognostications...xnonono2x

Perhaps you could do a better job than me. xwhistlex

[CopperCat]

xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex

HOW BOUT THEM BOBCATS


xsmiley_wix xsmiley_wix xsmiley_wix xsmiley_wix

Just smile and let everybody talk EWU, NAU, and UM up and then we'll quietly crash the conference. Then we'll see what all the homers say.

[I Bleed Purple]

Crash 'n' burn maybe. You'll be in the same boat after next week, lamenting that you gave one away and that had things gone differently, you would have won.

[slostang]

South Dakota State needs four more DI wins, so that means they'll probably have to beat Cal Poly at home and knock off either NDSU or SIU on the road.

Cal Poly must win every game it plays save for Wisconsin to get to seven. The SDSU game is essentially an elimination game, since the Mustangs should win the rest at home easily.

Both Cal Poly and South Dakota State have a bye next week to prepare for their game at Brookings on Oct. 18th. I agree that that game will be a playoff elimination game.

If Cal Poly wins that game I think they have a good shot at going to the playoffs. They should win the next four at home over Southern Utah, Idaho State, North Carolina Central and UC Davis (not a done deal, but they should be favored in each game). That would make their record at 8-2 with their only losses being to Montana (missed a game winning 27 yard FG with under a minute to play) and Wisconsin.

[T-Dog]

2 years ago Furman lost 40-7 to App St. and made the playoffs.

And the year before that Furman lost 41-21 at WESTERN FREAKIN CAROLINA and made the playoffs and barely missed getting a seed. They also made it to the semifinals before losing @ App in a close one.

[Reign of Terrier]

So if any Socon team can get into the playoffs after being blown out it's Furman University.xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[stevdock]

Both Cal Poly and South Dakota State have a bye next week to prepare for their game at Brookings on Oct. 18th. I agree that that game will be a playoff elimination game.

If Cal Poly wins that game I think they have a good shot at going to the playoffs. They should win the next four at home over Southern Utah, Idaho State, North Carolina Central and UC Davis (not a done deal, but they should be favored in each game). That would make their record at 8-2 with their only losses being to Montana (missed a game winning 27 yard FG with under a minute to play) and Wisconsin.


I haven't heard but I'm guessing no luck replacing the McNeese game with someone else next week.

[IaaScribe]

Is Central Arkansas playoff eligible yet?

[FargoBison]

Is Central Arkansas playoff eligible yet?

Not yet

[rcny46]

WAY too early for this stuff. Some teams only have one conference game under their belt.xcoffeex


I couldn't agree with you more.

[IaaScribe]

Not yet

So what happens to the Southland's auto bid if UCA wins the regular season title? Does it go to the second-place team?

[FargoBison]

So what happens to the Southland's auto bid if UCA wins the regular season title? Does it go to the second-place team?

That would be my guess but I'm not 100% on that.

[kirkblitz]

I think one way or another a big south team is gonna get in, either coastal or liberty. Maybe coastal if liberty can lose from now on and coastal can win from here on out. lol

[TexasTerror]

So what happens to the Southland's auto bid if UCA wins the regular season title? Does it go to the second-place team?

Yep -- second place team. Not sure if it's ever happened before, anyone got a clue? xconfusedx

[LehighFan11]

Both Cal Poly and South Dakota State have a bye next week to prepare for their game at Brookings on Oct. 18th. I agree that that game will be a playoff elimination game.

If Cal Poly wins that game I think they have a good shot at going to the playoffs. They should win the next four at home over Southern Utah, Idaho State, North Carolina Central and UC Davis (not a done deal, but they should be favored in each game). That would make their record at 8-2 with their only losses being to Montana (missed a game winning 27 yard FG with under a minute to play) and Wisconsin.

To be honest with you, don't count out that Wisconsin game. Call me crazy, but this is my upset of the year. I told my friends (who have no idea who Cal Poly is) to mark it down. I hope Cal Poly takes care of business vs. SDSU and in conference so they can make the playoffs.

[Cocky]

We have a long ways to go before we win the OVC. Not sure TSU or EIU are not the front runners.

[slostang]

I haven't heard but I'm guessing no luck replacing the McNeese game with someone else next week.

No they have not. From what I have heard Cal Poly went to every FCS team that had only 11 games and shared one of their two byes. They offered to pay their own way and did not require either a return game or any share of the gate. They had no takers.

[slostang]

To be honest with you, don't count out that Wisconsin game. Call me crazy, but this is my upset of the year. I told my friends (who have no idea who Cal Poly is) to mark it down. I hope Cal Poly takes care of business vs. SDSU and in conference so they can make the playoffs.

I'll be there so I am hoping they at least make it respectable. Cal Poly is a small team by FCS standards (biggest player is only 290 and only 4 players bigger than 270). Wisconsin is huge so this game worries me. The Citadel played a respectable game against them last season. Hopefully we can too.

[uofmman1122]

*****, if Cal Poly beats Wisconsin, they get my automatic #1 seed, and Montana gets an automatic #2. xlolxxsmiley_wix:p

[appfan2008]

looks good TT... but i really doubt that they would ever give wofford a top 2 seed and the possibility of 3 home games in that small stadium

[CCU97]

I'll give my own:

Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MVFC: North Dakota State
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jax State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: McNeese

At-Large:
1) Cal Poly
2) Richmond
3) Villanova
4) Montana
5) Northern Iowa
6) Elon
7) Wofford
8) Massachusetts

Bracket (Winners Bolded):

Hampton at (1) James Madison
Villanova at North Dakota State

Richmond at (4) Cal Poly
Massachusetts at Elon

Weber State at (3) McNeese
Lafayette at Montana

Jax State at (2) ASU
Wofford at Northern Iowa

xwhistlex

So you would leave a Liberty team out that will most likely be undefeated and win the Big South.....

[uofmman1122]

So you would leave a Liberty team out that will most likely be undefeated and win the Big South.....


There were about 5 teams that could be interchanged in my prediction. Right now it's too early to tell, but if Cal Poly only loses to Wisconsin from here on out, yes, I'd put them in.First off, it's only week 6. I can pretty much predict anything I want and get away with it. :p

Secondly, Liberty won't beat Elon, and they haven't really beaten a really good team, and don't play one outside of Elon, and I miiiiight give you Lafayette. Youngstown State, despite being ranked when Liberty won, has shown it's really not that good. And they played WCU and CCU closer than a good playoff team would have.

However, if they do go undefeated and beat Elon, yes. Liberty is in. No questions asked. Maybe if they beat everyone but Elon, but two more losses and it's a definite no. We are looking at a lot of potential bubble teams with potentially better resumes, IMO. xpeacex

[Dukie95]

Don't like all the #1 seeds for JMU here. Lots of football to play including tough road games at Richmond and Nova.

Actually, I'd put down UNH as the most likely CAA team to grab a seed.

[CCU97]

First off, it's only week 6. I can pretty much predict anything I want and get away with it. :p

Secondly, Liberty won't beat Elon, and they haven't really beaten a really good team, and don't play one outside of Elon, and I miiiiight give you Lafayette. Youngstown State, despite being ranked when Liberty won, has shown it's really not that good. And they played WCU and CCU closer than a good playoff team would have.

However, if they do go undefeated and beat Elon, yes. Liberty is in. No questions asked. Maybe if they beat everyone but Elon, but two more losses and it's a definite no. We are looking at a lot of potential bubble teams with potentially better resumes, IMO. xpeacex

OK...so give me the senerio where Montana actually wins a game against a better opponent? Cause right now they haven't and a one loss Liberty team...to me is should get in before a Montana team that may lose 2-3 more games this year...before you ask....EWU, UNA, and Mont. St could all beat you this year. so let's say you win one of the 3....are you telling me a Montana team that has only beaten one of these three should get in before a Liberty team that may only lose to one team and that team may be the second place or 1st place SoCon team?

[uofmman1122]

OK...so give me the senerio where Montana actually wins a game against a better opponent? Cause right now they haven't and a one loss Liberty team...to me is should get in before a Montana team that may lose 2-3 more games this year...before you ask....EWU, UNA, and Mont. St could all beat you this year. so let's say you win one of the 3....are you telling me a Montana team that has only beaten one of these three should get in before a Liberty team that may only lose to one team and that team may be the second place or 1st place SoCon team?Montana already beat current TSN #8 Cal Poly in the first game of the season. xwhistlex

However, Montana can lose two more games and still make the playoffs. No way they let a 9-3 Griz team out of the playoffs. If the Griz end up 9-3, and Liberty is 10-1, both get in. xpeacex

Also, Griz rally and win out, they get a seed.

[CCU97]

Yes and YSU beat NDSU but that doesn't mean they have a good team....all I am saying is using Liberty having a weak schedule and then having Montana in there is pretty much picking and choosing based on homer rules and the history of the school...which is why YSU was ranked when Liberty beat them...it wasn't because they have a great team.

[Kymermosst]

Actually, I'd put down UNH as the most likely CAA team to grab a seed.

The only way I could agree with that is if UNH's season ended with October. They have all of their toughest football in the last 3 weeks, going to Villanova, hosting UMass (assuming we really did figure it out this weekend), and going to Maine.

I see UNH losing 2 of those 3. They'll probably be undefeated going into 'Nova, and will still make the playoffs, but 2 FCS losses at all, especially in the last 3 weeks, and UNH will not be getting a seed. Throw in a glance at New Hampshire High School Stadium, and UNH is on the road in the playoffs. I'd love to see them get some well-deserved upgrades up there and be able to vie for some home playoff time.

I think looking at when and where losses are probbale, and I'd say it's a toss up between 'Nova and JMU. I'd go with JMU just because of the timing. I think JMU's loss is more probable this week in Richmond, while 'Nova's is more probable in 3 weeks against a rested and prepared JMU.

I'd be willing to be a little optimistic and say that UMass still has a shot at winning the conference as well. (At the beginning I expected losses to JMU and TT) but there's no way UMass is impressive enough to get a seed.

[uofmman1122]

Yes and YSU beat NDSU but that doesn't mean they have a good team....all I am saying is using Liberty having a weak schedule and then having Montana in there is pretty much picking and choosing based on homer rules and the history of the school...which is why YSU was ranked when Liberty beat them...it wasn't because they have a great team.Well, the most notable difference that I see you've ignored is that Montana has beaten a good team already.

More than you can say for ASU, Liberty, UNH, etc. They also lost to a good team. A team that, barring crazy *****, will probably win the BSC. You keep arguing about Montana vs. Liberty. A 9-3 Montana gets in. Better than that and it's guaranteed. Hell, UNH could go 11-1 and have a much better resume than Liberty, and I still left them out in my prediction. Lots of football left to be played. Who's to say Liberty doesn't lose 4 games?

Getting on me for a hypothetical week 6 prediction is kind of pointless, no? xeyebrowxxlolx

[WrenFGun]

UNH has a decent chance of being undefeated going into Villanova, but I'm not sure it's likely. William & Mary's passing offense will give UNH some trouble, particularly with a healthy Phillips, and UNH struggles against Northeastern regularly. It's important, in both instances, that UNH take early command of those games. I wouldn't expect anything worse than 6-2 going into Nova, which would make finishing the season 2-1 essential (and thus, would get UNH that hypothetical quality win against UMass or 'Nova, at least in terms of FCS). UNH already has a quality win on their schedule in Army, and were one of only two teams to defeat an FBS. That'll go a long way.

As far as playoff prognostications go, there is no reasonably created prognostication that would not include UNH as a member of the 16 team field as of this week.

[ToTheLeft]

Honestly, I don't know how much this plays into the committee's decision making, but LU won all 3 of it's games against FCS teams so far ON THE ROAD. At Western Carolina, at Stambaugh, and at Myrtle Beach... that has to count for something. We are historically a home team, that is terrible on the road, so for Liberty fans this may be more meaningful and exciting than it would be to the committee, but I think it counts for something.

Plus, can you show me an example where an 11-1 team with 9 FCS wins and was willing to go to the playoffs and eligible to go to the playoffs was left out? In all seriousness, I am not an FCS historian, so I would like to know if there is precedence.

[IaaScribe]

Liberty won't lose four games ... they should be at least a 2 TD fave in their next six (SBU, LAF, CSU, @PRESBY, @VMI, G-WEBB) ... if they lose any of those games, the playoff resume may be irreparably harmed.

[danefan]

Honestly, I don't know how much this plays into the committee's decision making, but LU won all 3 of it's games against FCS teams so far ON THE ROAD. At Western Carolina, at Stambaugh, and at Myrtle Beach... that has to count for something. We are historically a home team, that is terrible on the road, so for Liberty fans this may be more meaningful and exciting than it would be to the committee, but I think it counts for something.

Plus, can you show me an example where an 11-1 team with 9 FCS wins and was willing to go to the playoffs and eligible to go to the playoffs was left out? In all seriousness, I am not an FCS historian, so I would like to know if there is precedence.

Dayton was 8-1 against FCS opponents in 2007 at selection time.

Ready, willing and eligible for the playoffs. And left out. (correctly IMO). Not putting Liberty on the same level as the PFL, but the committee might. Especially if there is an OVC team on the bubble too.xcoffeex

[IaaScribe]

Yeah, but every one of those eight wins came against non-scholarship or limited aid (Fordham) programs. That's what hurt Dayton. And it lost to a non-scholarship team.

Apples and oranges.

[WrenFGun]

Is that the same Fordham team that won the Patriot League?

[danefan]

Yeah, but every one of those eight wins came against non-scholarship or limited aid (Fordham) programs. That's what hurt Dayton. And it lost to a non-scholarship team.

Apples and oranges.

I'm not agreeing that it would be right to exclude Liberty. I think quite the opposite.

I just think that Liberty fans should be prepared for the Committee to view them as something less then the teams from the traditional conferences.

Put a 9-3 OVC team (against all DI competition) against an 11-1 Liberty (only 9 DI wins) and I'd be willing to be the committee takes the 9-3, second-place OVC team.xreadx

[IaaScribe]

I definitely agree with that notion. That's why I think that anything less than 11-1 with the one loss coming to Elon is going to put Liberty on the wrong side of the bubble.

If LU goes 11-1 with a stumble in one of its next six games, and still beats Elon, I could see the Flames getting in that way as well.

(And yes, the same Fordham that won the PL. I'm just saying, as everyone else around here does, that you can't play one game against an auto-bid league and expect to go to the playoffs. That was a good win for Dayton.)

[Rob Iola]

I think Liberty needs to go undefeated to make the playoffs - there are too many quality, "pedigreed" teams out there in the power conferences that will be clustered at 8-3 and 9-2 (from beating each others brains out during conference play) for Liberty to get in with 1 loss, even if they do beat Elon (or especially if they beat Elon, since it will mean that they lost to an inferior opponent).

Numbers game, pure and simple...

[IaaScribe]

Rob, it helps that there is some precedent for a Big South school making the field. Coastal made it in 2006 with a similar resume (win over 7-4 Wofford and win at home against 8-3 Furman), and the Chants lost badly to a 3-8 Georgia Southern team and lost at home to 5-6 Elon.

Liberty's signature wins will be Youngstown, which I think will be around .500 by the end of the year, and Coastal, which will probably be right around 8-4. Both on the road.

The Big Sky probably won't have more than two teams with seven DI wins (don't think Weber or Eastern gets there), and the MoVal will continue to pound each other to a point where only three or four teams there will have the requisite 7. I think Cal Poly will struggle to win in Brookings, and if SDSU wins that, the Mustangs are done. (Sorry, they're not beating Wisconsin in Madtown in November).

So I'll stick with my original premise for Liberty. 11-1 gets them in. 10-2 and they're done.

[SuperJon]

Youngstown State had not lost a non-conference game at home in five years. Liberty beat them.

Coastal Carolina had not lost a conference game at home since their first year of play in 2003. Liberty beat them.

That says something.

[Rob Iola]

Hey, I'd luv to see Liberty make it in - huge fan of theirs. Problem is you're looking at:

CAA (4): 4 out of Richmond, JMU, Nova, UNH, UMass
Socon (4): 4 out of ASU, Elon, Wofford, Furman, Citadel
MVC (3): 3 out of UNI, Southern Ill., NDSU, Western Ill.
and 5 AQs.

So an 11-1 Liberty has to beat out one of the above PLUS Cal-Poly, a 2nd Big Sky, a 2nd Ohio Valley, a 2nd Southland, and potentially an 11-0 San Diego.

Heck, a 12-0 Liberty might have problems cracking that field, which would be a true disgrace, but crappier things have happened...

[Eight Legger]

Liberty at Richmond in the first round sounds good to me....

[IaaScribe]

Well, San Diego, which plays exactly one team that offers a football scholarship, should be nowhere near this discussion.

Nor should any other Pioneer team. When you play all of your league games against non-schollies, you better schedule nothing but teams from scholarship leagues for your non-league games if you want to be in the playoff discussion.

[Rob Iola]

Well, San Diego, which plays exactly one team that offers a football scholarship, should be nowhere near this discussion.

Nor should any other Pioneer team. When you play all of your league games against non-schollies, you better schedule nothing but teams from scholarship leagues for your non-league games if you want to be in the playoff discussion.
OK, take San Diego out of the equation - an 11-1 Liberty needs to beat out all the other teams listed - as much as I'd like to see the Richmond v. Liberty matchup I don't see it happening.

[drpnut]

Rob Iola,

I truly believe there is no way the MVC will get three in. I don;t think the Big Sky gets two in.

What is really crazy is that the Patriot league champ could have 5 losses and Liberty could go 11-1 and not get in.

Holla

[Rob Iola]

Put another way:
11-1 Liberty over an 8-2 Cal-Poly (losses to Montana and Wisconsin)?
11-1 Liberty over any 3 loss Socon, MVC, or CAA team?
11-1 Liberty over any 3 loss Big Sky team?
11-1 Liberty over any 2 loss OVC or Southland team?

The committee will preferentially take ALL of these teams over an 11-1 Liberty, so you have to hope that the numbers work out in Liberty's favor...

[drpnut]

Rob,

Who is your school?

[Rob Iola]

Rob,

Who is your school?
Delaware - AME (already mathematically eliminated) - actually they're still in the hunt, but they'd have to run the table against JMU, Richmond, Nova, etc. - so AME...

[drpnut]

Rob,

Do you believe the CAA can really put 4 in? I believe there will be anumber of 4 loss teams and I really don't see many how a 4 loss team, except for APPY gets in if there are a number of 3 loss teams and Liberty lurking around.

Holla

[ToTheLeft]

I really think that, this year, with the "extra game" on most schedules, that 8 DI wins will be looked upon more highly than just 7... I mean, 7 out of 12 wins doesn't make you a top team...

Just something I thought of...

[drpnut]

A number of people have pretty much already given the SoCon auto to Elon.

I remind folks that last year was like this. Elon started hot and then faded. I'm not saying they will fade, but the SoCOn is much better this year.

A team like Woffy could slip up on people like last year and in 03. GaSouth could rise, and Furple could come on strong. Elon has not been in the heat of the SoCon enough to have a "memory" or expereience to rely on.

I truly believe if ELCid gets them this week they will fade. IMO.

Holla

[Rob Iola]

drpnut,
If Richmond beats JMU I think you end up with 4 and perhaps even 5 CAA teams with only 3 losses (although maybe that's not possible - I haven't crunched the numbers). Problem is that if you end up with 3 CAA teams you're still looking at 3 Socon and probably 3 MVC teams with 3 losses. Add in the other 5 AQs and you've got 2 slots left amongst the Big Sky, OVC, Southland, and Poly. Liberty doesn't have the cachet that any of these teams/confs have.

BTW, what's your school?

[WrenFGun]

I think there are going to be a lot of three loss or less teams in the CAA. I think it's likely that UNH, JMU and Villanova will have three losses or less. UMass has a shot (would need to go 2-1 versus UNH, JMU and Richmond without a slip-up against anyone else) and so does Richmond (would need to go 2-1 against UMass, JMU and UD, without a CAA South or North slip). Delaware would need to run the table, which looks unlikely, but that's five teams that have a shot. UNH, JMU and 'Nova all have 1 or 0 losses to this point.

The MVFC looks a bit more bleak. NDSU, Northern Iowa, SIU and WIU all have four losses already, and SDSU has three. ISU is apparently in the running, though I don't think MVFC fans think they have much of a shot. I think it's going to be quite a challenge for even two of these teams to finish with three losses or less. I think the MVFC is a two-bid conference again.

The SoCon looks to have three strong bets in Elon, Wofford and Appy, with Furman sniffing around. They could steal four, but three seems the safe bet. The BSC is likely going to get two, and I'd say Montana and Weber, with NAU and MSU having a shot. EWU would have to run the table.

[drpnut]

Rob,

I'm a Wofford grad. And very proud of it. As always we are not getting much "love", but that is okay.

I like slipping up on people. See my last post.

Holla

[JmuSkinsfan]

Rob,

Do you believe the CAA can really put 4 in? I believe there will be anumber of 4 loss teams and I really don't see many how a 4 loss team, except for APPY gets in if there are a number of 3 loss teams and Liberty lurking around.

Holla

UNH and UMass from the north.
JMU and Villanova from the south.

I think UR will lose to JMU and UMass and be on the outside looking in at 8-4 ... but they might get in if there are enough spots.

[WrenFGun]

UNH and UMass from the north.
JMU and Villanova from the south.

I think UR will lose to JMU and UMass and be on the outside looking in at 8-4 ... but they might get in if there are enough spots.

That's unfortunate, because I really think Richmond is better than both UNH and UMass.

[drpnut]

We all know this:

MEAC: 1 bid
PAtriot: 1 bid
OVC: 1 bid
Southland: 1 bid

and I believe this could happen:

MVC: 2 bids
Big Sky: 1 bid
CAA: 3 maybe 4 bids
SoCon: 3 bids

That is 13-14 where do the other 2-3 come from? This s not smakc just conversation.

Holla

[WrenFGun]

Wow, SLC could get two (SHSU, McNeese), OVC could get two (JSU, TSU, UT Martin, EIU), MVC could get more than two, BSC will likely get two, CAA could get five.

[danefan]

We all know this:

MEAC: 1 bid
PAtriot: 1 bid
OVC: 1 bid
Southland: 1 bid

and I believe this could happen:

MVC: 2 bids
Big Sky: 1 bid
CAA: 3 maybe 4 bids
SoCon: 3 bids

That is 13-14 where do the other 2-3 come from? This s not smakc just conversation.

Holla

Right or wrong, you're better off planning on two from the OVC. Its happened 4 out of the last 8 years. Including the last two years.

[drpnut]

WrenGun

My speculation is that the above what you just mentinoned won't happen cause the conference teams will batter each other. Just my humble opinion

[Rob Iola]

I think there are going to be a lot of three loss or less teams in the CAA. I think it's likely that UNH, JMU and Villanova will have three losses or less. UMass has a shot (would need to go 2-1 versus UNH, JMU and Richmond without a slip-up against anyone else) and so does Richmond (would need to go 2-1 against UMass, JMU and UD, without a CAA South or North slip). Delaware would need to run the table, which looks unlikely, but that's five teams that have a shot. UNH, JMU and 'Nova all have 1 or 0 losses to this point.

The MVFC looks a bit more bleak. NDSU, Northern Iowa, SIU and WIU all have four losses already, and SDSU has three. ISU is apparently in the running, though I don't think MVFC fans think they have much of a shot. I think it's going to be quite a challenge for even two of these teams to finish with three losses or less. I think the MVFC is a two-bid conference again.

The SoCon looks to have three strong bets in Elon, Wofford and Appy, with Furman sniffing around. They could steal four, but three seems the safe bet. The BSC is likely going to get two, and I'd say Montana and Weber, with NAU and MSU having a shot. EWU would have to run the table.
Those teams all have 2 losses already, not 4 (as does ISU) - that's 5 teams competing for 2 or 3 slots - I'm guessing NDSU and UNI get 2, and 1 to SIU, WIU or ISU...

[ToTheLeft]

Yeah, I think everyone assuming that the big conferences are going to send a ton of teams forget that we haven't barely started conference schedules. These good teams all play each other, and will also have tough road tests in their conferences and rivalry games... so to say "Well, Wofford is good so they're in" or "UMass is looking good so far so that's one more for the CAA" is really, really presumptuous at this point. Especially CAA and SoCon teams, there is a lot of talent from top to bottom, and you know there will be upsets...

All in all, it's too early to have a very clear picture... but I still fail to see how there is any way that 11-1 Liberty, or 12-0 Liberty, could be kept out of the postseason.

[drpnut]

I would rather have another SoCon team with 3 losses than an MVC with 3 or OVC with three.

[Rob Iola]

Yeah, I think everyone assuming that the big conferences are going to send a ton of teams forget that we haven't barely started conference schedules. These good teams all play each other, and will also have tough road tests in their conferences and rivalry games... so to say "Well, Wofford is good so they're in" or "UMass is looking good so far so that's one more for the CAA" is really, really presumptuous at this point. Especially CAA and SoCon teams, there is a lot of talent from top to bottom, and you know there will be upsets...

All in all, it's too early to have a very clear picture... but I still fail to see how there is any way that 11-1 Liberty, or 12-0 Liberty, could be kept out of the postseason.
I don't think any particular team is being picked, but just that statistically enough of these teams will meet the 3 loss threshold that they'll be in over a 1 loss Liberty team.

But let's turn this around: IF Liberty runs the table AFTER Elon wins the Socon (for the sake of argument) then I could see Liberty getting a seed...

[WrenFGun]

Those teams all have 2 losses already, not 4 (as does ISU) - that's 5 teams competing for 2 or 3 slots - I'm guessing NDSU and UNI get 2, and 1 to SIU, WIU or ISU...

Doh! Stupid errors!

[drpnut]

TotheLeft

Get used to the fact that you could get hosed or as they say now, "Woffed". Remember '02 when WOffy was 9-3 in a strong SoCon and got left out?

Solve the problem and come join the SoCon and that way you will not have to question the merits of your schedule. The BigSouth get an auto in 2010, but they will never be more than a 1 bid league.

[ToTheLeft]

TotheLeft

Get used to the fact that you could get hosed or as they say now, "Woffed". Remember '02 when WOffy was 9-3 in a strong SoCon and got left out?

Solve the problem and come join the SoCon and that way you will not have to question the merits of your schedule. The BigSouth get an auto in 2010, but they will never be more than a 1 bid league.

I am very aware of the sad state of affairs that is the Big South. CSU, VMI, GW, Presby, and Stony Brook are all terrible excuses for football teams this year... And it frustrates me to no end... this year we tried so hard to get a good schedule, even had JMU lined up at one point from what I've heard... but wound up with Youngstown who just so happens to be having a terrible year, Western who is having a worse year than we imagined, and Lafayette who just isn't quite a big enough name... and not to mention Coastal not being as good as advertised.

I would love for LU to be in a different conference, but at this point that's just not a possibility. So, we do the best with what we've got... I never expect the BS to be a 2 bid league... I expect that if anyone makes the playoffs from the BS they have to be the champion and have a really good record...

So, we did what we could with our schedule so far... we won all our games and we're going to put the committee in a situation where they are going to have to choose between putting us in or leaving out a team with an awesome record and that is high in the polls.

I am nervous, I'll admit, with all the negativity surrounding LU's playoff chances, but in all honesty, it's way to early for either the smartest and most accurate playoff prognosticators to be correct. I just still refuse to believe that an 11-1 or 12-0 Liberty team, with wins at CCU and Stambaugh, will be left out. I will only believe that if and when I see it.

[ToTheLeft]

I don't think any particular team is being picked, but just that statistically enough of these teams will meet the 3 loss threshold that they'll be in over a 1 loss Liberty team.

But let's turn this around: IF Liberty runs the table AFTER Elon wins the Socon (for the sake of argument) then I could see Liberty getting a seed...

I'm not saying any team is being picked... I just think that conferences are being picked to send multiple bids when, in reality, these are good conferences where a lot of teams are going to get upset and beat up...

[WrenFGun]

Since I've been talking about other people's projections, I feel I ought to make my own.

BSC: Weber State (They have to go to MSU and NAU in the next three weeks, but they do get EWU at home)
CAA: JMU (Best team in the country, though tough schedule coming up with 'Nova, Richmond and UD on the horizon)
MEAC: SC State (Went with SC State because they get Hampton at home)
MVFC: Southern Illinois (They've already played NDSU and NIU, and they get SDSU and WIU at home)
OVC: Jacksonville State (Already beat EIU and gets TSU at home)
Patriot: Holy Cross (I think they're the best team in the Patriot. Lafayette has five road games in a row. Good grief.)
SoCon: Appalachian State (Get both Wofford and Elon at home, and they have only one quality road game left against a struggling GSU)
Southland: McNeese State (Either McNeese will win it or come in second to UCA).

My eight at larges go in different degrees of certainty.

Strong Shot:
UNH (4-0, with W&M, Towson, Hofstra and UMass still at home)
Villanova (4-1, quality win over Richmond, with UNH, UD and JMU left)
Montana (4-1 with ELEVEN FCS games. Even a loss to EWU and NAU and they'd be 9-3 with 8 FCS wins)
Elon (5-1 with FIVE FCS wins)
Wofford (3-1 with THREE FCS wins and UTC/WCU next)

I think the next three in line for playoff spots, right now, are Richmond, NDSU and Northern Iowa, all of whom have two losses.

Then you have teams like Cal Poly, Liberty, WIU, SHSU, TSU, EIU, Hampton, NAU, UMass, and Illinois State sniffing around. A lot could happen, but these look like the teams to be aware of.

[already123]

SO.....from what I am seeing-- if MONTANA wins the conference, the BSC is good enough for two teams to go to the playoffs. However, if the Grizz are (more or less) dethroned, all of a sudden the BSC has no validity and only the auto-bid gets the green light?


Explain this one to me....

'Cause from where I'm sittin, that just means that the BSC has gotten a WHOLE lot better

[GP91HEN]

UD is on pace for an autobid and seed in the upcoming playoffs at the Crapsville Bar & Grill...........:) xmadx

Is it 2009 yet???

[uofmman1122]

SO.....from what I am seeing-- if MONTANA wins the conference, the BSC is good enough for two teams to go to the playoffs. However, if the Grizz are (more or less) dethroned, all of a sudden the BSC has no validity and only the auto-bid gets the green light?


Explain this one to me....

'Cause from where I'm sittin, that just means that the BSC has gotten a WHOLE lot betterIf Montana goes at least 9-3, but doesn't win the auto, guarantee two Big Sky teams make the playoffs, maybe even three.

NAU, Weber, Montana State, Montana, and Eastern Washington are still in the hunt. (However, if Montana beats EWU, they are pretty much out)

[Reign of Terrier]

I'll be fair to Elon fans, they WILL make the playoffs. whether it be at large or otherwise I don't know

[Reign of Terrier]

I'll be the first non-GSUer to say not to take GSU out of the playoff hunt yet. They have a lot of talent and COULD beat App (third tough Socon team's the charm)

[Rob Iola]

I'll be fair to Elon fans, they WILL make the playoffs. whether it be at large or otherwise I don't know
And I'll repeat - If Elon wins the Socon and Liberty beats them in the last game of the season to go 12-0, not only does Liberty get a playoff bid but they should get a top 4 seed...

[Reign of Terrier]

And I'll repeat - If Elon wins the Socon and Liberty beats them in the last game of the season to go 12-0, not only does Liberty get a playoff bid but they should get a top 4 seed...

They have to improve their defense first. 38 points to CCU?

[Rob Iola]

They have to improve their defense first. 38 points to CCU?
If they beat Elon their D will be good enough...

[Reign of Terrier]

If they beat Elon their D will be good enough...

I'm still not convinced with the liberty hype. They won't beat Elon but they'll get in the playoffs.

[kirkblitz]

They have to improve their defense first. 38 points to CCU?

hey we put up like 400 yards on penn state :(

[Reign of Terrier]

hey we put up like 400 yards on penn state :(

But only 10 points? points win games. (Don't take it personal Big south fans I'm still bitter about '06 Wofford vs CCU).

[Chi Panther]

hey we put up like 400 yards on penn state :(

UNI scored 17 times more points again BYU than UCLA and Wyoming combined....but who cares.....

[ToTheLeft]

We will be hosting Elon, tho... That will make a little bit of a difference... our homefield advantage isn't half bad, and we will have a season worth of preparation for them. I think it will be a good game, regardless of what state the two teams are in.

[Reign of Terrier]

We will be hosting Elon, tho... That will make a little bit of a difference... our homefield advantage isn't half bad, and we will have a season worth of preparation for them. I think it will be a good game, regardless of what state the two teams are in.

It'll be interesting. Remember Elon will have played AT APP and AT GSU (two of the hardest in FCS) by then, so I don't think Home field advantage will play a factor for Elon. It won't be negative for Liberty.

[ToTheLeft]

Oh, I'm not saying we're going to be the most insane intimidating crowd that Elon has faced this year... I just know that we play pretty well in the friendly confines. It has less to do with Elon being out of place in hostility, and more to do with us being better and more comfortable at the Bill.

[Phoenix87]

First, there is a ton of football left to play for the Phoenix, so Liberty hasn't even crossed my mind. Out of our last 6 games, 4 are against ranked opponents. We have played horrible the last three years against El Cit, which I think actually favors us since we have something to prove against them. We knocked Wofford around pretty good last year, and while we have the same defense back that shut them down last year, its a new year and they will be coming up to Elon with a chip on their shoulder. And third, App State is the last conference game of the season. IF and this is IF we manage to win our next four games, this game should be for the Socon Champ, which at Boone should be one hell of an atmosphere; I'm thinking 32,000+ if its for the Champ.

Once we do get to the Liberty game, if we have an automatic bid locked up I don't see our coaching staff playing our starters. They will be looking to rest up our top players and getting the back ups some game time to get them ready to play incase something were to happen to the player ahead of them in the playoffs, and also to give our starters some rest.

Overall, we are a LOOOONG way from the playoffs. Too many big games left to say we are a lock. This past weekends game against Furman was a big statement, but coming in to the season I honestly didn't think Furman was going to be that good without their Beast of a RB. And the Delaware game is proving to be not that great of a win for the Paladins. The games I was worried about coming in to the season are just coming up, El Cit and Wofford. This next month is going to be one hell of a month for football for the Phoenix.

[Rob Iola]

...
And third, App State is the last conference game of the season. IF and this is IF we manage to win our next four games, this game should be for the Socon Champ, which at Boone should be one hell of an atmosphere; I'm thinking 32,000+ if its for the Champ.
...
Would be really cool if ASU picks up a 3rd loss before then - then not only would you quite possibly be playing for the Socon championship, but you'd concievably be playing to knock ASU out of the playoffs - ironically making the following week's game against Liberty a non-issue (would a 4 loss ASU team make the playoffs over an 11-1 Liberty team?).

[SuperJon]

Would be really cool if ASU picks up a 3rd loss before then - then not only would you quite possibly be playing for the Socon championship, but you'd concievably be playing to knock ASU out of the playoffs - ironically making the following week's game against Liberty a non-issue (would a 4 loss ASU team make the playoffs over an 11-1 Liberty team?).

And if Elon had the auto-bid locked up, and they didn't play their starters, an Elon win isn't as sure as some of the people on here say it is. If the stuff you said plays out, the question could be is a 4-loss ASU team in over a 12-0 Liberty team.

Then again, if I could lose 30 pounds by tomorrow morning I could have a date by Friday night.

[LUfilmguy]

TTL you forgot to mention it will be senior day when we play Elon as well. xnodx

[SuperJon]

TTL you forgot to mention it will be senior day when we play Elon as well. xnodx

It's also the day after Thanksgiving break starts for Liberty students. How many will actually stick around?

[LUfilmguy]

Good point. I think a good amount will stay. I might be being to optimistic but the fact that if we won that game we would go undefeated and probably make the playoffs for the first time might change the mind of most of the students wanting to go home. Anyone else have this problem?

[Edge316007]

App usually gets about 10-15k less than average for their first playoff home game. That still means around 15-17k though which is still very good.

[Rob Iola]

Yeah, tough to get student support during the Thanksgiving holiday. UD traditionally sees a sharp drop-off in support for the 1st round (won't be a problem this year) - last year's game was the exception due to having DSU and ESPN in daHenhouse...

But ply me w/tailgate brews and I'll make the 3 hour trip south for the game. You'll be able to regale me with the tale as to how the big LU appeared on the hillside...

[Walkon79]

Yep -- and still have games at Weber State and home vs Montana and Northern Arizona...they won't be dancing unless they can win the games necessary to win the auto.

And a road game at MSU

[SuperJon]

But ply me w/tailgate brews and I'll make the 3 hour trip south for the game. You'll be able to regale me with the tale as to how the big LU appeared on the hillside...

As long as you're ok with Dr. Pepper being the hardest thing you drink, c'mon down.

[dbackjon]

As long as you're ok with Dr. Pepper being the hardest thing you drink, c'mon down.

No Red Bull?

[ToTheLeft]

Actually, I usually throw back an Amp on game day, so if that's your drink then you'll fit right in, too. :P

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

ToTheLeft - Let's say the Flames make the playoffs...

Who would you want to play (likely regional matchups):

1. JMU
2. App St.
3. UR

Elon is a long-shot, and you'd likely host - so I won't include them. Same with Hampton.

[ToTheLeft]

Honestly, I wouldn't really care. I would rather have one of the two Virginia schools because it would make for an easier trip, but I don't have a preference. I would travel to Cal Poly if we made the playoffs, just the fact that we made it would be monumental to me.

[Rob Iola]

As long as you're ok with Dr. Pepper being the hardest thing you drink, c'mon down.
Is this just a LU policy or did the good Rev. Falwell frown on alcohol in general? I mean, there was the Wedding Feast at Cana and all, so it's not like there's no Biblical precedent...

[ElonPride]

ToTheLeft - Let's say the Flames make the playoffs...

Who would you want to play (likely regional matchups):

1. JMU
2. App St.
3. UR

Elon is a long-shot, and you'd likely host - so I won't include them. Same with Hampton.

At this point in the season, why is Elon a long shot? Currently ranked 6th, 4-0 in a tough conference and have already knocked off 2 of "the big three" in conference.......

Also, at this point, I'm curious to know why you think Liberty would host over Elon....

[Pitz]

At this point in the season, why is Elon a long shot? Currently ranked 6th, 4-0 in a tough conference and have already knocked off 2 of "the big three" in conference.......

Also, at this point, I'm curious to know why you think Liberty would host over Elon....

As of this week, www.nobowls.com has Elon going to JMU and Liberty waiting in line.

[Dukie95]

At this point in the season, why is Elon a long shot? Currently ranked 6th, 4-0 in a tough conference and have already knocked off 2 of "the big three" in conference.......

Also, at this point, I'm curious to know why you think Liberty would host over Elon....

I don't think Elon is a long shot, so I can't answer that one...

But, I do think Liberty could even outbid JMU come playoff time. Liberty probably has a lot of coin to throw at this, and since they're not generally in the mix, they're probably willing to spare no expense to secure a home game.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I meant long shot in terms of being matched up, not making the field... context!

[BDKJMU]

As of this week, www.nobowls.com has Elon going to JMU and Liberty waiting in line.

If it hapens I called it back in July:

Excuse me for butting in on the So-Con message string here, but I was reading about Elon since my girlfriend is a grad, and I'm interested in seeing how they do in their UR game, and I could see JMU playing them in the playoffs since they're only about a 3.5 hr drive apart.
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/showthread.php?t=44343&page=7

and from the JMU message board back in May:
"JMU finally gets a home game (hopefully as a seed). According to Mapquest:
Harrisonburg to Elon: 208 miles
Harrisonburg to Hampton: 208 miles

Since UR will have already played Elon, I think they'd get the Hampton/Norfolk St matchup, and JMU would host Elon. Which if JMU beat UR/finished ahead of them, would in a sense be getting screwed again with a tougher 1st round matchup.

So there you go, I predict JMU hosts Elon in the 1st round. Ok, I know the odds of this happening are somewhere well south of 50-50, but thought I'd throw this out there."
18th post of 19 posts:
http://www.caazone.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=79705

[appstate38]

I think Liberty has a good shot at a playoff bid. But you have to keep your eyes on the prize and right now that is the next game. There are going to be alot of things that shake out between now and the end of the season. There will probably be 1 or 2 teams that have a complete meltdown to open the door for you. So control what you can control and don't worry about the rest. I think you will get a good look from the committee this year. Plus I don't think we will see 5 or 6 teams from the CAA this year either.

[SuperJon]

Is this just a LU policy or did the good Rev. Falwell frown on alcohol in general? I mean, there was the Wedding Feast at Cana and all, so it's not like there's no Biblical precedent...

It's both, but mainly a Liberty thing. There's no alcohol allowed on campus.

Liberty's an experience like no other place in the country. It's a great crowd and great atmosphere without the drunken idiots ruining things.

[dbackjon]

Liberty's an experience like no other place in the country. It's a great crowd and great atmosphere without the drunken idiots ruining things.

Appaholic resembles that remark!























(j/k - he is a well behaved drunk)

[ToTheLeft]

I am by no means an FCS expert, but I wanted to give this a shot, mainly to see if I could actually justify putting LU in the playoffs at this point.

Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MVFC: UNI
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Tenn. State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Elon
Southland: McNeese

At-Large:
1) Wofford
2) Richmond
3) Nova
4) UNH
5) App St.
6) Liberty
7) NDSU
8) Weber St.

I won't even try matchups... but take an honest look and tell me what you think...

[theasushow]

I am by no means an FCS expert, but I wanted to give this a shot, mainly to see if I could actually justify putting LU in the playoffs at this point.

Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MVFC: UNI
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Tenn. State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Elon
Southland: McNeese

At-Large:
1) Wofford
2) Richmond
3) Nova
4) UNH
5) App St.
6) Liberty
7) NDSU
8) Weber St.

I won't even try matchups... but take an honest look and tell me what you think...

that is certainly possible, but if 7 teams get in from the caa and socon, that cant be good for liberty.

[SuperJon]

I think, in terms of best case for Liberty, we have to hope a total of 8 teams from the CAA, SoCon, and MVFC get in.

[Pauly LB]

OK, take San Diego out of the equation - an 11-1 Liberty needs to beat out all the other teams listed - as much as I'd like to see the Richmond v. Liberty matchup I don't see it happening.

The truth is that San Diego avoids scheduling scholarship schools almost at any cost. Cal Poly has made many attempts to schedule San Diego but to no avail. Come to think of it I am sure that they took a good look at how Cal Poly handled their neighbor (San Diego State) in their own crib.

[Rob Iola]

I am by no means an FCS expert, but I wanted to give this a shot, mainly to see if I could actually justify putting LU in the playoffs at this point.

Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MVFC: UNI
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Tenn. State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Elon
Southland: McNeese

At-Large:
1) Wofford
2) Richmond
3) Nova
4) UNH
5) App St.
6) Liberty
7) NDSU
8) Weber St.

I won't even try matchups... but take an honest look and tell me what you think...
I think you've got Montana (currently 1 loss), Cal-Poly (1 loss), Jack State (1 loss), Central Ark. (1 loss), and either Furman/Citadel (2 losses) that would get in with 3 losses (2 for Cal-Poly, Jack St. and Cetral Ark.) ahead of a 1 loss Liberty. It's also possible that the MVC self-destructs (since everyone's already on 2 losses with the bulk of round-robin conf. play upcoming) and they only get the AQ in, but I'm guessing they'll get 2 in.

[Khan4Cats]

I think you've got Montana (currently 1 loss), Cal-Poly (1 loss), Jack State (1 loss), Central Ark. (1 loss), and either Furman/Citadel (2 losses) that would get in with 3 losses (2 for Cal-Poly, Jack St. and Cetral Ark.) ahead of a 1 loss Liberty. It's also possible that the MVC self-destructs (since everyone's already on 2 losses with the bulk of round-robin conf. play upcoming) and they only get the AQ in, but I'm guessing they'll get 2 in.

Liberty will definitely get in before Central Arkansas, UCA is still in transition and ineligible.

I'll agree with you that the Valley will get two, but I think they have a better chance at 3 than only 1. Unless it becomes a complete bloodbath and the AQ wins on a tie-breaker at 5-3.

[ToTheLeft]

Not everyone can run the table in conference play tho man.

Everyone in the MVFC has at least 2 losses. I can't see any of them emerging with only 2 losses at the end, and if they do, that will virtually eliminate everyone else. Say that NIU runs the table from here on out... That would virtually eliminate Ill. State and NDSU. If SDSU loses one more game, and then beats NSDU in the Marker game, chances are they could both have 4 or 5 losses... and I just don't see how 4 loss MVFC teams can make it over 11-1 or 12-0 Liberty.

[DetroitFlyer]

The truth is that San Diego avoids scheduling scholarship schools almost at any cost. Cal Poly has made many attempts to schedule San Diego but to no avail. Come to think of it I am sure that they took a good look at how Cal Poly handled their neighbor (San Diego State) in their own crib.


Then why would USD play UC Davis if, as you claim, they avoid scheduling scholarships schools at almost any cost? Maybe the folks at USD just do not like Cal Poly.... If you know anything about USD, you would know that many at USD think that they could also defeat SDSU.... I'm certain that when Harbaugh was in town, he tried to set up a game along those lines.... SDSU would have none of it.... Everything to lose and nothing to gain. Kind of goes right back to the whole NCAA corruption thing.... An FBS team cannot count a win over a USD because USD does not offer 90% of the FCS maximum number of athletic scholarships on a two year rolling basis. You know, you pays your money, yous buys your NCAA benefits....

USD has a pretty good chance of going undefeated. This season, Dayton plays at USD. It has become VERY difficult to defeat USD at home. Dayton was the last team to do it, and we might pull it off this year, but I'm not counting on it.... IF USD finishes undefeated, they will be right in the thick of things come playoff discussion time. Still, since USD has not payed its money, I'm betting that the third place MEAC team gets in while USD stays at home....

[IaaScribe]

San Diego plays one Division I opponent that offers a scholarship.

San Diego will be in the thick of nothing.