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catbob
November 2nd, 2005, 12:03 PM
Finally, I went a perfect 4 for 4! Bout time I say.

That brings my season total to 77.78%, 21 for 27.
I want to pat myself on the back for a couple of scores there were pretty close.
My prediction:
NAU 23 MSU 31
Actual:
NAU 22 MSU 29
My prediction:
ISU 20 WSU 28
Actual:
ISU 21 WSU 30

Weber has the only bye of the week, and Eastern plays the only out of conference game, a road game with Cal Poly.

Teams still in contention for the coveted autobid:
UM 3-1 (@NAU @Sac @MSU)
MSU 3-1 (Sac @EWU UM)
EWU 4-2 (@Cal Poly MSU UC Davis)
WSU 4-2 (@PSU @SUU)
PSU 3-2 (@ISU WSU)

UM and MSU both control their own destinys. If UM wins out, they win it outright, and the same goes for MSU. If EWU beats MSU, they will need a Griz loss to win the BSC. There is a possibility of UM, MSU, EWU and WSU/PSU all finishing with 5-2 marks. It makes my head hurt.

Sacramento State @ #11 Montana State
- Sac got blown away by that high powered Eagle offense we have all come to know and fear. The Hornets surrendered 485 yards in the air to Mr. Meyer, and gave up 45 points. Sac still can't find any rhythm offensively, and Ryan Mole didn't get the majority of the carries (I can't find out why, Sac boards are dead at this point). The Bobcats were playing well for one half, and lead 22-0 at halftime, and thanks to a few mental mistakes, the game should have been much worse for NAU. But NAU came storming back and the Cats played one terrible half of football, needing to score in the final 2 minutes to beat a lackluster NAU squad. The Bobcats can't seem to put a full game together. Luckily for them, I don't feel they will have to play a complete game to beat a toothless Sac St squad. The Hornets run the ball with decent sucess, and they will have to run it better than that against a bad Cat rush defense. The Cats defense was bolstered by Clive Lowes return, only allowing 56 yards on the ground, and should get another boost this weekend with the return of DL Chris Kolone. The Cats are still undefeated at home this year, and Sac hasn't won on the road yet. The Hornets defense might be a bit underrated (though the stats won't reflect that), and will play hard. They should be able to apply pressure on Lulay, and will more than likely be able to stuff any running game the Cats throw at them. Also, they Hornets QBs have only thrown 5 INTs all year. Sac will have to control the clock, run the ball effectively, and minimize turnovers, because MSU cannot play mistake free. Unfortunately for Sac, MSU has abadoned the run for this season and will get a heavy dose of Lulay, Gatewood/Guinn/and Murray. The Cats will get up at halftime, but this time they won't let the opponent sneak back in and will win big at home.
What to watch : NAU won the time of possession battle 2:1 last week vs MSU. Sac will have to duplicate that performance if they want any chance in this one.
- 17-34

#3 Montana @ Northern Arizona
- Griz fans really, really got on my nerves this week, spewing unbelievable trash on our boards after we got a W. So I'm not going to do a write-up for this one.
- 27-13

Portland State @ Idaho State
- After rising as high as #15 in the polls, just one loss to Montana completely wiped PSU off the ranking board. A little harsh in my opinion, but I digress. The Viks were simply outmanned, outcoached and outstadiumed (yes I made that up) by the Griz last week. Rubin was held in check on 20 carries for 101 yards, and PSU turned the ball over only once. The Griz were sucessful in executing the gameplan against any good run team - get up early and force them to pass. Sawyer Smith, while having a decent day, was not up to that task. The PSU defense played well though, but special teams were a big factor, with Harris returning a punt for a TD for the Griz. ISU has lost 3 of their last 4, only winning at Sac. They were not effective running the ball, proving that if you shut down the run game, ISU is rendered toothless. While Hagler had a decent day (17/33 242 2 TD 1 INT), it was ultimately ISU's defense that lost this one for them. They are going to be facing a PSU team that is on the ropes and still has hopes for a playoff shot. One matchup that favors the Bengals is their run defense. ISU is 5th in the nation allowing less than 100 YPG on the ground. They face a run-happy PSU offense, lead by IAAs leading rusher, Joe Rubin. In terms of matchups, I actually give the nod to ISU's ground game, that deadly duo of Cornist and Barnett who have combined for 1272 yards and 14 TDs on the year. I think ISU will be able to get an effective run game going, and will limit Rubin to under a buck fifty. PSU is playing with their backs against the wall, but are known for their late season drops. PSU will have to pass more than it would like, and he may find some sucess against a subpar Bengal secondary, but I think ISU wins a low scoring affair at home, and eliminates PSU from playoff contention.
What to watch : Special teams will win the day, and ISU has an advantage in this department.
- 14-20

#9 Eastern Washington @ #17 Cal Poly
- This should be a good one to watch. Cal Poly, having lost it's starting QB for the season, and it's leading rusher for a game or two, played a very touch UC Davis defense last week, and mustered up only 113 yards of total offense. The Stangs are in trouble. But their defense is still strong. And they will have to play the game of their life to stop the offensive juggernaut that is EWU. Last week the Eags simpled dismantled the Sac secondary, with Meyer having a ridiculously efficient day, throwing for 470 on 28/33 3 TDs and no picks. That is a mere rating of 234.48. While the Stang defense is a much stauncher opponent, I don't see anyone being able to stop these Eagles when they get rolling. Poly needs to get after Meyer and throw the Eagles out of rhythm. Of course when you think of EWU, you think of Meyer and Kimble. But what an addition Ryan Cole was to this team, having rushed for 730 yards and 11 TDs. Not to mention the defense is playing average, which is all they needed from them. If James Noble returns for Cal Poly, they might be able to control the clock enough to keep Meyer and Co off the field. But without starting QB Barnett (who was a very good runner), the Stangs are left with a RS Freshman walk-on. No, the Mustangs have too much to overcome in this one, even if Noble is able to play. The Eagle defense will shut down the Stang offense, and the Stang defense will play well for awhile but I think they will eventually be overcome. A big factor, however, is that Poly is fighting for it's playoff lives and EWU might be looking past them to MSU next week.
What to watch : Gocong is going to have to pressure Meyer a lot and force him out of rhythm if the Stangs want to hang in this one.
- 35-17

Possible upset of the week: NAU over UM
Best matchup: PSU @ ISU
Worst matchup: CSUS @ MSU

CatFan22
November 2nd, 2005, 12:10 PM
Excellent job once again. I agree with everything you wrote.

AZGrizFan
November 2nd, 2005, 12:12 PM
#3 Montana @ Northern Arizona
- Griz fans really, really got on my nerves this week, spewing unbelievable trash on our boards after we got a W. So I'm not going to do a write-up for this one.
- 27-13



catbob--For a person who normally does a pretty good job of keeping an unbiased opinion in these analyses, I'm disappointed in you. You've got to know that Griz fans are just amping up for the 19th, man! :nod: :nod: I'm pretty sure that we will put up more than 27 against NAU, and if they get 13, 7 will be from their defense. We win by 21, minimum.

Proud Griz Man
November 2nd, 2005, 12:14 PM
Please catbob, tell us why you think NAU over UM is the possible upset special. I think you should tell us what you see in that matchup.

CatFan22
November 2nd, 2005, 12:16 PM
Please catbob, tell us why you think NAU over UM is the possible upset special. I think you should tell us what you see in that matchup.

Probably for the same reasons a lot of people thought the NAU - MSU game would be a lot closer than what most people thought.

AZGrizFan
November 2nd, 2005, 12:18 PM
Probably for the same reasons a lot of people thought the NAU - MSU game would be a lot closer than what most people thought.

Nahhh, that can't be...we thought that because we knew MSU sucked! So, it must be so OTHER reason.... :D :D

CatFan22
November 2nd, 2005, 12:27 PM
Nahhh, that can't be...we thought that because we knew MSU sucked! So, it must be so OTHER reason.... :D :D

Good one. You are a good example of why there is no write up for the friz this week. :)

AZGrizFan
November 2nd, 2005, 12:31 PM
Good one. You are a good example of why there is no write up for the friz this week. :)

Man, you guys are touchy this week. I mean, hell, I put :D :D after it...maybe because you're realizing all your early season bluster was just that. :nod: :nod: ...Not looking so rosy for you now, is it Cat fans?

CatFan22
November 2nd, 2005, 12:39 PM
Man, you guys are touchy this week. I mean, hell, I put :D :D after it...maybe because you're realizing all your early season bluster was just that. :nod: :nod: ...Not looking so rosy for you now, is it Cat fans?

I know you put a :D after it. Just as I put a :) after my post. Now you are getting touchy.

catbob
November 2nd, 2005, 12:40 PM
Man, you guys are touchy this week. I mean, hell, I put :D :D after it...maybe because you're realizing all your early season bluster was just that. :nod: :nod: ...Not looking so rosy for you now, is it Cat fans?

Thanks for reinforcing my decision in not wasting my time writing about the Griz.

And quite simply, there are two possible upsets this week in my mind. Sac over MSU and NAU over UM.

I thought NAU had a better chance of knocking off UM at home than Sac does of knocking MSU off on the road. Therefore, the biggest chance of an upset would be NAU over UM. I didn't give any odds on the chances of that happening, so simmer.

My prediction was still unbiased for the Griz, I just didn't waste any time writing it out for you.

nevadagriz
November 2nd, 2005, 02:13 PM
yeah that makes sense, ruin it for the good griz fans just because of a few a-holes!

I look forward to your report every week and think you are as close as anyone when it comes to predictions. Sorry a few bad apples ruined it. Maybe I will go see what was sad on the cat forum. Keep up the good work ,although incomplete this week!!

Proud Griz Man
November 2nd, 2005, 03:37 PM
Thanks for reinforcing my decision in not wasting my time writing about the Griz.

And quite simply, there are two possible upsets this week in my mind. Sac over MSU and NAU over UM.

I thought NAU had a better chance of knocking off UM at home than Sac does of knocking MSU off on the road. Therefore, the biggest chance of an upset would be NAU over UM. I didn't give any odds on the chances of that happening, so simmer.

My prediction was still unbiased for the Griz, I just didn't waste any time writing it out for you.

No need to simmer. :) Because I did not see NAU play MSU, I thought that you might have observed something about NAU that would present a matchup problem for UM. But from what I understand it has to do with NAU's home field advantage. I know that can be challenging with the flight to Phoenix and bus up to Flagstaff.

catbob
November 2nd, 2005, 03:50 PM
I don't see any reason why UM shouldn't handle NAU. The only thing I could possibly see is if Murietta gets hot, but that is unlikely as his receiving corp is pretty dismal. The Cats play a very soft zone defense and any QB with more than 4 seconds will pick it apart. We force Murietta out of the pocket many times but our DL were too slow to pursue, so he bought himself time and found his man.

Sanchez is not a very good back, and the Griz run D is solid. There only hope is through the air, or turnovers.

If they get themselves up for the game and play as hard as they can at home, there is the slightest of chances they could pull the upset. The Griz would more or less have to lay an egg though.

putter
November 2nd, 2005, 04:16 PM
Catbob,

Watching your game I thought you would not change a thing a the half but in the 3rd it seemed that the Cats hung back and stopped going after Murietta and, like you said, he had enough time to start picking apart the zone. With the speed of Dlouhy and who else starts at the other end, I hope we can pressure him all day. Sanchez should not be able to pick up many yards, however, as they say Any Given Saturday!

IaaScribe
November 2nd, 2005, 05:08 PM
I covered several Griz-Jacks games in my Arizona days, and NAU was never even close. Montana ALWAYS embarrasses NAU in Flagstaff, and this year will be no different.

UM 54, NAU 10.

AZGrizFan
November 2nd, 2005, 05:42 PM
I covered several Griz-Jacks games in my Arizona days, and NAU was never even close. Montana ALWAYS embarrasses NAU in Flagstaff, and this year will be no different.

UM 54, NAU 10.

Scribe, I couldn't agree more. I've been to the last 4 games, and it's rarely close. In fact, the NAU fans are usually filing out in droves by mid-third quarter. I'm not sure UM puts up 54 on ANYONE this year (except Ft Lewis, of course), but I can see 42-10, or something in that range.

BTW, I'll be at this game as well, with 17 of my closest friends (and one Bobcat fan) sitting in Section W, cheering on the Griz to another Walkup Skydome blowout!! :nod: :nod:

IaaScribe
November 2nd, 2005, 06:11 PM
Griz, if you like beer, head to Mogollon Brewing Company on Agassiz Street for a pint or two afterward. Outstanding brew! :beerchug:

JALMOND
November 2nd, 2005, 06:52 PM
Oh, mighty Catbob, here are my predictions (as usual, mainly the opposite of yours, maybe that is why you're doing so well and I am not)...

Sac St@ MSU---NAU tied with MSU late in the 4th? At Bozeman? I don't know. I've stuck with the Hornets all year as an upset pick. I've got to get it right some time---Sac St 28, MSU 24 (in Bozeman)

Montana@NAU---NAU tied with MSU late in the 4th? At Bozeman? Ok, so I am repeating myself. Strange, but I see Murietta trying to salvage a season. 2nd upset---NAU 20, Montana 16

PSU@ISU---Will there be a hangover from the Viking game in Missoula? Will we find the passing game that vanished against the Griz? I think we will---PSU 35, ISU 21

EWU@Cal Poly---Big game for both as both need this to keep alive their playoff hopes. Can the Mustangs regroup without their QB? I'm trying Mustang fans, but I can't see it---EWU 35, Cal Poly 24

Weber idle

So I am a homer, but I see Portland State still in it at the end of the games.

DaGriz
November 3rd, 2005, 12:49 AM
- Griz fans really, really got on my nerves this week, spewing unbelievable trash on our boards after we got a W. So I'm not going to do a write-up for this one.

You have had a ton of props on your predictions. Even "most" Griz fans think your predictions are fair and unbiased. Every team has jackasses, don't take it personal.

AZGrizFan
November 3rd, 2005, 05:31 PM
Griz, if you like beer, head to Mogollon Brewing Company on Agassiz Street for a pint or two afterward. Outstanding brew! :beerchug:

Yep, been there...at least, what of it I can recall....thanks for the reminder, though!

elkmcc
November 3rd, 2005, 05:53 PM
You have had a ton of props on your predictions. Even "most" Griz fans think your predictions are fair and unbiased. Every team has jackasses, don't take it personal.

I was thinking the same thing about catbob. Strikingly unbiased, especially from a bobcat fan, Until this, that is. Too bad catbob. I hope you realize that, based on attendance #'s, by ignoring the Griz game you are ignoring at least half of the total BSC fans that are out there. Thank God Matt Dougherty isn't so thinn skinned or the Griz would never get a write up from him either. And you had such a promising career catbob.

AZGrizFan
November 3rd, 2005, 10:38 PM
I was thinking the same thing about catbob. Strikingly unbiased, especially from a bobcat fan, Until this, that is. Too bad catbob. I hope you realize that, based on attendance #'s, by ignoring the Griz game you are ignoring at least half of the total BSC fans that are out there. Thank God Matt Dougherty isn't so thinn skinned or the Griz would never get a write up from him either. And you had such a promising career catbob.

catbob is just prepping for 11/19, and the beatdown his kitties will take. He's practicing the thin-skin routine... :D :D

ThreadStopper
November 3rd, 2005, 10:52 PM
Eastern Washington better get ready for a tough day in San Luis Obispo.

The Mustangs are in a corner and fighting for their playoff lives. The defense will bend as they have all year but manage to limit the points EWU will be able to put on the board. Take away two near hail Mary's last weekend and Davis would have been limited to couple of field goals. EWU will be shut down in a similar manner.

The Poly offense is another matter. It remains to be seen what this group will be able to do against Eastern Washington. Hopefully Noble will be back and a more balanced attack will be able to move the ball. The coaching staff has placed a lot of faith in their redshirt walk-on QB. There must be a reason they are doing so. One thing is for sure, the EWU defense is no match to the UC Davis squad. Poly will score, but can EWU out score the Mustangs?

It is going to be a great game. It is a shame that this will end the playoff hopes of one of these teams. Even if EWU does pull out a win they will not get by Davis. ;)

AZGrizFan
November 3rd, 2005, 11:00 PM
Eastern Washington better get ready for a tough day in San Luis Obispo.

The Mustangs are in a corner and fighting for their playoff lives. The defense will bend as they have all year but manage to limit the points EWU will be able to put on the board. Take away two near hail Mary's last weekend and Davis would have been limited to couple of field goals. EWU will be shut down in a similar manner.

The Poly offense is another matter. It remains to be seen what this group will be able to do against Eastern Washington. Hopefully Noble will be back and a more balanced attack will be able to move the ball. The coaching staff has placed a lot of faith in their redshirt walk-on QB. There must be a reason they are doing so. One thing is for sure, the EWU defense is no match to the UC Davis squad. Poly will score, but can EWU out score the Mustangs?

It is going to be a great game. It is a shame that this will end the playoff hopes of one of these teams. Even if EWU does pull out a win they will not get by Davis. ;)

OK, here's my question: If EWU loses to CP and UC-Davis, but beats MSU, and the Griz lose another league game (but not MSU), EWU and Griz end up with 2 league losses,and EWU gets auto bid with tie breaker, correct? But they won't have 7 D-I wins, in fact they won't have 7 wins period...In fact, to get 7 D-I wins, they need to win out...how does that work, Ralph?

elkmcc
November 4th, 2005, 01:02 AM
OK, here's my question: If EWU loses to CP and UC-Davis, but beats MSU, and the Griz lose another league game (but not MSU), EWU and Griz end up with 2 league losses,and EWU gets auto bid with tie breaker, correct? But they won't have 7 D-I wins, in fact they won't have 7 wins period...In fact, to get 7 D-I wins, they need to win out...how does that work, Ralph?

Nope, EWU has 2 conference losses already. Under that scenario, the Griz win the tiebreaker with MSU. I believe the bobcats only had 7 wins in 2003 and got the autobid becuase of the tiebreaker with the Griz. :confused:

AZGrizFan
November 4th, 2005, 09:04 AM
Nope, EWU has 2 conference losses already. Under that scenario, the Griz win the tiebreaker with MSU. I believe the bobcats only had 7 wins in 2003 and got the autobid becuase of the tiebreaker with the Griz. :confused:

But the only conference game EWU has left is MSU. If they win it, and UM beats MSU but loses to either NAU or Sac State (highly unlikely, but AGS), EWU and UM have 2 losses and MSU now has three. EWU has tie breaker, but only 6 wins...can that actually happen?? :confused: :confused:

Georgia Griz
November 4th, 2005, 09:50 AM
Possible upset of the week: NAU over UM

Catbob, I enjoyed your post, but what makes an upset of 2-6 NAU over 6-2 Montana more likely than an upset of #17 Cal Poly over #9 EWU. I think that there might be a little "Griz-hating" involved in your predictions. :)

catbob
November 4th, 2005, 10:14 AM
Catbob, I enjoyed your post, but what makes an upset of 2-6 NAU over 6-2 Montana more likely than an upset of #17 Cal Poly over #9 EWU. I think that there might be a little "Griz-hating" involved in your predictions. :)

No, I just wouldn't consider a Cal Poly win at home vs EWU that big of an upset. Griz fans always hold the opinion that since the Griz beat them at home, they must not be as good as everyone says they are. I've seen this Cal Poly team twice now, and they are better than they played against UM. But since their starting QB is out and possibly their leading RB, I think EWU will overmatch them.

catbob
November 4th, 2005, 10:16 AM
For the record, I didn't take the smack personal. Just a culmination of all season long, added with the fact that the most smack spoken all year came after a freaking victory, got on my nerves. I won't miss another prediction again. :) I'm usually thick-enough skinned, but I was having a bad week anyway with school.

DaGriz
November 4th, 2005, 10:30 AM
they must not be as good as everyone says they are. I've seen this Cal Poly team twice now

I saw them play the Cats and they looked great. Against us they looked good, against Davis they looked horrible. Hopefully for them that back up QB they have just had a bad game because if that is their game the rest of the year they might not win another.

JALMOND
November 4th, 2005, 01:46 PM
But the only conference game EWU has left is MSU. If they win it, and UM beats MSU but loses to either NAU or Sac State (highly unlikely, but AGS), EWU and UM have 2 losses and MSU now has three. EWU has tie breaker, but only 6 wins...can that actually happen?? :confused: :confused:

Keep in mind if Portland State wins out, they will also have only 2 conference losses. Would that open the door for the Vikings to get the second Big Sky spot?

Given the above scenario and PSU winning out, final Big Sky standings would be like this:

EWU 6-2 6-5 (includes win over DII Western Oregon)
UM 6-2 8-3 (includes win over DII Ft Lewis)
PSU 6-2 7-4 (2 I-A losses)

Interesting, but giving me a big headache...Actually, EWU needs two wins to get over seven DI wins as one win was against W Oregon. Is that right?

AZGrizFan
November 4th, 2005, 03:48 PM
Keep in mind if Portland State wins out, they will also have only 2 conference losses. Would that open the door for the Vikings to get the second Big Sky spot?

Given the above scenario and PSU winning out, final Big Sky standings would be like this:

EWU 6-2 6-5 (includes win over DII Western Oregon)
UM 6-2 8-3 (includes win over DII Ft Lewis)
PSU 6-2 7-4 (2 I-A losses)

Interesting, but giving me a big headache...Actually, EWU needs two wins to get over seven DI wins as one win was against W Oregon. Is that right?

Ralph answered my question in another thread...EWU can get the auto bid even without 7 D-I wins...

catbob
November 5th, 2005, 09:37 AM
It doesn't matter what record you get for autobids.

Cats have had the last two at 6-5, neither meeting the 7 win criteria OR the old 4 loss criteria.