Playoff Prognostications - 9/28

[TexasTerror]

Just trying to stir up discussion...it's obviously still very early to try to make sense of things, whether it the teams or the match-ups. Still plenty of football, particularly conference games!

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: James Madison
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: Furman
Southland: McNeese State

At Large
1) Eastern Washington
2) Elon
3) Wofford
4) The Citadel
5) Northern Iowa
6) New Hampshire
7) Richmond
8) Villanova

Just on the outside... William & Mary Liberty, Cal Poly, Jacksonville State, Tennessee State, Sam Houston State

Projected Match-ups

Elon at (1) Montana
Tennessee-Martin at Wofford

New Hampshire at (4) Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa at Eastern Washington

Hampton at Richmond
Lafayette at (2) James Madison

Villanova at Furman
The Citadel at (3) McNeese State

[JaxSinfonian]

OVC: Tennessee-Martin

Just on the outside... Jacksonville State


???

I know, I know. You're just going off the current record without looking too deep, and I'm still a little pumped over the JSU victory against #21 EIU yesterday. But Martin's conference wins are over Peay and Murray. JSU has cleared a ranked perennial OVC champ out of its way and dispatched two other FCS teams with ease. Lotsa games left to be played, for sure, but things are going our way.

Your post has achieved its stated goal.

[asknoquarter21]

app???

[Col Hogan]

app???

I'm assuming he's given the SOCON 4 berths...and App isn't getting one in his theory...

Kinda strange, IMHO...

[TexasTerror]

???

I know, I know. You're just going off the current record without looking too deep, and I'm still a little pumped over the JSU victory against #21 EIU yesterday. But Martin's conference wins are over Peay and Murray. JSU has cleared a ranked perennial OVC champ out of its way and dispatched two other FCS teams with ease. Lotsa games left to be played, for sure, but things are going our way.

Your post has achieved its stated goal.

JaxSt has caught my eye. I got them in my top 25 ballot this week and I think they are really on the rise. It looks like they are heading in the right direction and the win over EIU was huge. Time to keep those wins coming and it'll be JaxSt instead of Martin...Tennessee State's loss yesterday hurt BAD.


app???

Figured keeping them on the outside and not even mentioning them would really stir the pot and HOPEFULLY outside of giving me hate-filled messages, encourage others to come up with the bracket, which if you take on the task, is tough as nails... xnodx

[zilla]

I think if Liberty can knock-off either CCU this Saturday or beat Elon later this season, and win the other games on their schedule, it would be hard to keep them out. They were #25 this week & they'll move up in the polls after defeating Youngstown State last night.

[th0m]

I don't think both the SoCon and CAA will get 4 teams in. CAA has it a bit easier with the divisive schedule, but the Socon teams all beat up on each other. Add in non-Div I wins and teams like Cal Poly or Liberty IMO have a better shot of making it (I did notice you had them in the just on the outside).

[Rob Iola]

app can only afford 1 loss against a rugged Socon schedule - even the 3-time defending champion will have a tough time getting an at-large bid with 4 losses this season - and apparently injuries are starting to add up...

for instance - does a 4 loss ASU get an at-large bid over an undefeated Liberty? ASU could well be watching Elon playing Liberty in the last week of the season with the winner going to the playoffs and the loser, and ASU, staying home...

[TexasTerror]

I don't think both the SoCon and CAA will get 4 teams in. CAA has it a bit easier with the divisive schedule, but the Socon teams all beat up on each other. Add in non-Div I wins and teams like Cal Poly or Liberty IMO have a better shot of making it (I did notice you had them in the just on the outside).

Agreed. Looks like if the MVFC beats up on each other throughout the conference season, which is likely, they may have a hard time mustering up so many teams as well...

Question will be -- can the OVC or SLC get a second team in? That may be a storyline later in the season as these teams get a few more games under their belt. SHSU vs UCA and SHSU vs McNeese are weeks one and two of full SLC play...

[th0m]

My shot (first ever playoff prognostication might I add, criticize away ;))

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: EWU
CAA: UNH
Missouri Valley: UNI
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: Furman
Southland: McNeese State

At Large
1) Montana
2) ASU
3) Wofford
4) Richmond
5) SIU
6) JMU
7) Cal Poly
8) Villanova

Pairings are mostly a crapshoot but here goes:

Cal Poly at EWU
Wofford at (1) UNI

SIU at Montana
Hampton at (4) JMU

Villanova at Appalachian State
Lafayette at (2) UNH

Richmond at (3) Furman
Jacksonville State at McNeese State

I don't know if the pairings are regionalized for the second round as well, may have to alter my brackets then I was primarily looking at avoiding conference clashes and not placing the bulk of the CAA and Socon in the same bracket.

[UNHWildCats]

I think if Liberty can knock-off either CCU this Saturday or beat Elon later this season, and win the other games on their schedule, it would be hard to keep them out. They were #25 this week & they'll move up in the polls after defeating Youngstown State last night.
I aint gone over all the scores yet this morning, but xthumbsupx thank you very much for kicking the penguins asses back out of the top 25.

[th0m]

I don't know if the pairings are regionalized for the second round as well, may have to alter my brackets then I was primarily looking at avoiding conference clashes and not placing the bulk of the CAA and Socon in the same bracket.

[PaladinFan]

I wouldn't plug Furman in to the SoCon autobid just yet. While the Paladins, I think, have surprised a lot of people (who are not Furman fans) they still have a looooong way to go.

[Millwoch]

I wouldn't plug Furman in to the SoCon autobid just yet. While the Paladins, I think, have surprised a lot of people (who are not Furman fans) they still have a looooong way to go.


We all have a long way to go....One week at a time.xsmiley_wix

[McTailGator]

My shot (first ever playoff prognostication might I add, criticize away ;))

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: EWU
CAA: UNH
Missouri Valley: UNI
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: Furman
Southland: McNeese State

At Large
1) Montana
2) ASU
3) Wofford
4) Richmond
5) SIU
6) JMU
7) Cal Poly
8) Villanova

Pairings are mostly a crapshoot but here goes:

Cal Poly at EWU
Wofford at (1) UNI

SIU at Montana
Hampton at (4) JMU

Villanova at Appalachian State
Lafayette at (2) UNH

Richmond at (3) Furman
Jacksonville State at McNeese State

I don't know if the pairings are regionalized for the second round as well, may have to alter my brackets then I was primarily looking at avoiding conference clashes and not placing the bulk of the CAA and Socon in the same bracket.

Lots of McNeese fans hope to see Jack State at year end.

RP back in La. would sell some tickets.

[TexasTerror]

My shot (first ever playoff prognostication might I add, criticize away ;))

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: EWU
CAA: UNH
Missouri Valley: UNI
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: Furman
Southland: McNeese State

At Large
1) Montana
2) ASU
3) Wofford
4) Richmond
5) SIU
6) JMU
7) Cal Poly
8) Villanova

Pairings are mostly a crapshoot but here goes:

Cal Poly at EWU
Wofford at (1) UNI

SIU at Montana
Hampton at (4) JMU

Villanova at Appalachian State
Lafayette at (2) UNH

Richmond at (3) Furman
Jacksonville State at McNeese State

I don't know if the pairings are regionalized for the second round as well, may have to alter my brackets then I was primarily looking at avoiding conference clashes and not placing the bulk of the CAA and Socon in the same bracket.

I got to think that McNeese, Montana or EWU will at the end of the season be amongst the seed four teams. I do see 2 of 3, if not all three hosting home games as well, which you did...

[UNHWildCats]

UNI projected as #1 seed?

[Rob Iola]

Will AGS become a barren wasteland without the Bison herd?

[jcmanson]

I aint gone over all the scores yet this morning, but xthumbsupx thank you very much for kicking the penguins asses back out of the top 25.

We did it with great delight xnodx

[CopperCat]

EWU and UM may be getting a little too much love. They both struggled yesterday against teams they were supposed to beat handily. Give it about 3 more weeks and we should have better idea of exactly where they stand.

[th0m]

UNI projected as #1 seed?

I don't think either Big Sky deserves a seed at this point. Neither does McNeese State. Then there is the Socon, Missouri Valley and CAA. Between them I think the auto-bid winners should get it, and the best 2nd, IMO JMU. I think whoever comes out of the Socon this year will not have the resume for a top seed because they'll be beat up. In the CAA, I think UNH has an easy schedule and their FBS win will tiebreak any other CAA team. So maybe UNH should get the #1 seed, but I think they, too, have not shown their full capacity yet. I think the Missouri Valley is down a bit so UNI could have a really good resume starting the playoffs. Then of course there's the option of JMU winning the CAA and giving them the #1 seed but I didn't want to be so much of a homer and would rather give UNH the top seed, we play just fine at UNH anyway ;)

[TxState_GO_CATS!]

Just trying to stir up discussion...it's obviously still very early to try to make sense of things, whether it the teams or the match-ups. Still plenty of football, particularly conference games!

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: James Madison
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: Furman
Southland: McNeese State

At Large
1) Eastern Washington
2) Elon
3) Wofford
4) The Citadel
5) Northern Iowa
6) New Hampshire
7) Richmond
8) Villanova

Just on the outside... William & Mary Liberty, Cal Poly, Jacksonville State, Tennessee State, Sam Houston State

Projected Match-ups

Elon at (1) Montana
Tennessee-Martin at Wofford

New Hampshire at (4) Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa at Eastern Washington

Hampton at Richmond
Lafayette at (2) James Madison

Villanova at Furman
The Citadel at (3) McNeese State

if you guys (SHSU) don't get the additional Div I (probably FCS) game, do you even qualify for an at large if you don't win the SLC?

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I appreciate the vote of confidance but I think that tough FBS games will once again prevent any more than 2 SoCon teams from getting in. I still think Appy is on paper the best-looking team in the SoCon, with Furman and The Citadel tied for second.

Appy HAS to be the favorite to win the SoCon at this point with Furman, Wofford, The Citadel, AND Elon at home (how did they get so lucky xnutsx).

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: JMU
Missouri Valley: SIU
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: App St
Southland: McNeese State

At large:
UNH
Richmond
UNI
NDSU
Wofford
Furman
UMass
Liberty

(1) JMU vs. Liberty
Hampton @ Richmond

Wofford @ UNI
(4) McNeese St. vs. Furman

(3) SIU vs. Jacksonville St.
NDSU @App St.

Laffayette @ UNH
(2) Montana vs. UMass

[TexasTerror]

If Montana or McNeese finish undefeated, they'll be seeded. Things will work out like that if that were to happen, regardless of CAA, MVFC or SoCon results...still plenty of football.

[TexasTerror]

if you guys (SHSU) don't get the additional Div I (probably FCS) game, do you even qualify for an at large if you don't win the SLC?

SHSU could go 7-2 in Div I games (8-3 overall). The SLC champ would need to be undefeated. The key is splitting the UCA/McNeese game. As of now and what I've seen from the #1 offense (with Bomar), I think we have a fighting chance...we'll know early.

[dbackjon]

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: JMU
Missouri Valley: SIU
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: App St
Southland: McNeese State

At large:
UNH
Richmond
UNI
NDSU
Wofford
Furman
UMass
Liberty

Only ONE Big Sky? And UMass?

[jlcharles]

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: JMU
Missouri Valley: SIU
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: App St
Southland: McNeese State

At large:
UNH
Richmond
UNI
NDSU
Wofford
Furman
UMass
Liberty

Seriously? UMass in over Nova?


I don't think either Big Sky deserves a seed at this point. Neither does McNeese State. Then there is the Socon, Missouri Valley and CAA. Between them I think the auto-bid winners should get it, and the best 2nd, IMO JMU. I think whoever comes out of the Socon this year will not have the resume for a top seed because they'll be beat up. In the CAA, I think UNH has an easy schedule and their FBS win will tiebreak any other CAA team. So maybe UNH should get the #1 seed, but I think they, too, have not shown their full capacity yet. I think the Missouri Valley is down a bit so UNI could have a really good resume starting the playoffs. Then of course there's the option of JMU winning the CAA and giving them the #1 seed but I didn't want to be so much of a homer and would rather give UNH the top seed, we play just fine at UNH anyway ;)

Both teams have to play at Villanova who may have one of the easiest roads in the CAA with all of their tough games at home. Of course, saying this, watch them go lay an egg at W&M.

[ElonFirefighter]

I appreciate the vote of confidance but I think that tough FBS games will once again prevent any more than 2 SoCon teams from getting in. I still think Appy is on paper the best-looking team in the SoCon, with Furman and The Citadel tied for second.

Appy HAS to be the favorite to win the SoCon at this point with Furman, Wofford, The Citadel, AND Elon at home (how did they get so lucky xnutsx).


They gave the SoCon Comish a couple jugs of that Mountain Water!!! xbeerchugx and while they were passed out redid the Socon schedule

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I had a tough time leaving out Eastern Washington, but they're not impressing me yet, nor is any other Big Sky team.

I am not sure about Nova yet. I have them #11 in my AGS poll. But I think JMU will win @Nova and Delaware will get some revenge playing at home.

I am sure my scenario is wrong, but isn't everyone's this time of year. ;)

[JaxSinfonian]

Lots of McNeese fans hope to see Jack State at year end.

RP back in La. would sell some tickets.

I'm all for it. What better way to finally get a win over McNeese than to knock 'em out in the first round of the playoffs? :D

Just one thing: as long as we're wishing, let's have those ticket-buying Cowboys fans come to Jacksonville for the show. A lot can happen between now and Thanksgiving week.

[Chi Panther]

My shot (first ever playoff prognostication might I add, criticize away ;))

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: EWU
CAA: UNH
Missouri Valley: UNI
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: Furman
Southland: McNeese State

At Large
1) Montana
2) ASU
3) Wofford
4) Richmond
5) SIU
6) JMU
7) Cal Poly
8) Villanova

Pairings are mostly a crapshoot but here goes:

Cal Poly at EWU
Wofford at (1) UNI

SIU at Montana
Hampton at (4) JMU

Villanova at Appalachian State
Lafayette at (2) UNH

Richmond at (3) Furman
Jacksonville State at McNeese State

I don't know if the pairings are regionalized for the second round as well, may have to alter my brackets then I was primarily looking at avoiding conference clashes and not placing the bulk of the CAA and Socon in the same bracket.


WOW I hope you are right.

We got the Defense....Just don't know if we got a QB......xoopsx

[JaxSinfonian]

Question will be -- can the OVC or SLC get a second team in? That may be a storyline later in the season as these teams get a few more games under their belt.

I hope to avoid this eventuality, but with Jax State & Tenn State playing in the final week of the regular season, picture a 10-1 Tigers team emerging with the OVC autobid. That could leave a 9-2 Jax State squad with a 2-0 FCS OOC record and a win over ranked-at-the-time EIU.

That, of course, assumes a lot of wins for both teams between now and then. But what the heck, as long as we're playing what-if.

[UNHWildCats]

I hope to avoid this eventuality, but with Jax State & Tenn State playing in the final week of the regular season, picture a 10-1 Tigers team emerging with the OVC autobid. That could leave a 9-2 Jax State squad with a 2-0 FCS OOC record and a win over ranked-at-the-time EIU.

That, of course, assumes a lot of wins for both teams between now and then. But what the heck, as long as we're playing what-if.
I can understand when someone says "beat then #1 ________" or "beat then #3 _____________" and that team is still ranked rather high.

But saying you beat a ranked-at-the-time EIU just means they sucked and were overrated by the voters, the win isnt all that impressive.

[james_lawfirm]

Figured keeping them on the outside and not even mentioning them would really stir the pot and HOPEFULLY outside of giving me hate-filled messages, encourage others to come up with the bracket, which if you take on the task, is tough as nails... xnodx

OK, so you're not going to give us your REAL playoff matchups because you don't think anyone will respond? That seems like a goofy approach to me.

I was at the ASU/Pres. game yesterday. If App plays like it did in the first half, then there will be no playoffs for the Mountaineers. But, if App plans like it did in the second half, we're seeded.

Watch what happens next week against The Citadel. We'll know more after that game. Stay tuned.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: JMU
Missouri Valley: SIU
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: App St
Southland: McNeese State

At large:
UNH
Richmond
UNI
NDSU
Wofford
Furman
UMass
Liberty

(1) JMU vs. Liberty
Hampton @ Richmond

Wofford @ UNI
(4) McNeese St. vs. Furman

(3) SIU vs. Jacksonville St.
NDSU @App St.

Lafayette @ UNH
(2) Montana vs. UMass

While it is much too early to take any projection very seriously, this one raised a philosophy question for the committee and of course all the AGS'ers. Don't you think FCS would be better served by not having two potential CAA rivalry games in the Quarterfinals? Especially in a year where one team (UNH) won't have played the two teams from the CAA South?

Other questions/comments:


Does Lafayette not draw well on Thanksgiving weekend? Just based on capacity and their private institution status, I would assume the Pards could out bid the Wildcats. I know it won't get reported as such, but I'm guessing the UNH bid will probably be based on 10K being in ol' Cowell Stadium.
Are you a sadist? Sending Wofford to the UNI Dome the year after going to Wa Griz? xeekx xeekx xeekx xlolx
I know the NCAA does seem to like having conference mates meeting in the Quarterfinals, but I prefer spreading the multiple teams from the same conference among as many regions as possible. We get to see many inter-sectional games that way that because of expenses wouldn't happen otherwise. Besides, from a selfish point of view, I'd like to get to McNeese some day soon for some Louisiana Tailgating!!! Much preferred in Nov. or Dec. rather than in Sept.! ;) :p :p :p In general the playoffs have brought me to GA Southern, Hampton and Northern Iowa. I'd like to experience more FCS venues this way.

[th0m]

Both teams have to play at Villanova who may have one of the easiest roads in the CAA with all of their tough games at home. Of course, saying this, watch them go lay an egg at W&M.

Villanova may be at home for the tough games, but is home for 'Nova really that much of an advantage? Not talking smack here, just wondering about the environment. Also, while you guys may have the South at home, UNH meanwhile has the rotation of W&M, Towson and Villanova instead of JMU, Richmond and Delaware. They even get UMass at home. We all know UNH likes to choke vs. W&M but for the rest their schedule is easier than yours I'd say.

[jlcharles]

Villanova may be at home for the tough games, but is home for 'Nova really that much of an advantage? Not talking smack here, just wondering about the environment. Also, while you guys may have the South at home, UNH meanwhile has the rotation of W&M, Towson and Villanova instead of JMU, Richmond and Delaware. They even get UMass at home. We all know UNH likes to choke vs. W&M but for the rest their schedule is easier than yours I'd say.

Anything is better than getting on an hours long bus ride before a game. So, yes, I would say that playing at home is an advantage. JMU comes in on homecoming weekend, so if we can handle business at W&M and Rhode Island, there may be enough buzz surrounding this team to get the alums into the stadium for once.

I never said ours was the easiest, but one of the easiest. You're right, UNH has a very favorable schedule.

[crusader11]

I'll try my hand at this.

Auto:

Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: JMU
MVC: Southern Illinois
MEAC: South Carolina State
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: App. State
Southland: Central Arkansas

At Large:

Eastern Washington
UNH
Richmond
UNI
Elon
Furman
McNeese State
Cal Poly

(1) James Madison vs. Holy Cross
Furman vs. Eastern Washington

(4) UNI vs. Central Arkansas
UNH vs. Montana

(2) App. State vs. South Carolina State
Richmond vs. Southern Illinois

(3) Elon vs. Jacksonville State
Cal Poly vs. McNeese State

As far as the bracket plays out:

Holy Cross (not going to happen, but I'm a homer, I can dream)
Eastern Washington

UNI
UNH

App. State
Richmond

Elon
Cal Poly

Then:

Eastern Washington
UNI

App. State
Elon

Then:

Eastern Washington
App. State

Lastly:

Eastern Washington

[JaxSinfonian]

I can understand when someone says "beat then #1 ________" or "beat then #3 _____________" and that team is still ranked rather high.

But saying you beat a ranked-at-the-time EIU just means they sucked and were overrated by the voters, the win isnt all that impressive.

If you're right, why even bother ranking teams below #10?

Could it be that the voters were roughly right about EIU, but had underrated JSU? Or can poll voters only be wrong in one direction? Even if EIU drops out this week, they'll have plenty of chances to win their way back into the top 25, and I certainly hope they do.

This is the only ranked team JSU has had the opportunity to play this season. Anyone in my position is right to point out to poll voters that we're a better team than the one they'd ranked #21. If we'd lost the game and were talking about playoff chances down the road, we'd be faulted for not beating them.

I'm only playing the best hand I can with the cards I've got, even if it is just a pair of fives. I'm not claiming it's the best hand on the table.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I'll try my hand at this.

Auto:

Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: JMU
MVC: Southern Illinois
MEAC: South Carolina State
OVC: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: App. State
Southland: Central Arkansas

At Large:

Eastern Washington
UNH
Richmond
UNI
Elon
Furman
McNeese State
Cal Poly

(1) James Madison vs. Holy Cross
Furman vs. Eastern Washington

(4) UNI vs. Central Arkansas
UNH vs. Montana

(2) App. State vs. South Carolina State
Richmond vs. Southern Illinois

(3) Elon vs. Jacksonville State
Cal Poly vs. McNeese State

As far as the bracket plays out:

Holy Cross (not going to happen, but I'm a homer, I can dream)
Eastern Washington

UNI
UNH

App. State
Richmond

Elon
Cal Poly

Then:

Eastern Washington
UNI

App. State
Elon

Then:

Eastern Washington
App. State

Lastly:

Eastern Washington

I like you[r picks]. xthumbsupx

[kirkblitz]

no faith for the BSC from any of you xbawlingx