Anyone care about the Sagarin Ratings?

[DOME]

I think they're pretty darn accurate.

I also think the 11 year streak of the home team winning the UNI v. SIU game comes to an end Saturday.

Gosh I'm smart eh?

[GaSouthern]

I think they are very good. Takes the emotion out of the voting.

[danefan]

Can't be that good....NCAA refuses to recognize them for FCS purposes.

Even forced them to be removed from the GPI for playoff selection purposes.

[Retro]

Since when does the NCAA know what they are doing?xrolleyesx

[GannonFan]

Can't be that good....NCAA refuses to recognize them for FCS purposes.

Even forced them to be removed from the GPI for playoff selection purposes.

Of course, considering that the selection committee's job is pretty easy for 14-15 of the 16 playoff picks, and they apparently just use subjective judgement for the last 1-2 picks, I don't think it matters what they use and don't use. FCS playoff selection is 1000x easier than NCAA Basketball selections.

[Ronin]

I think they're pretty darn accurate.

I also think the 11 year streak of the home team winning the UNI v. SIU game comes to an end Saturday.

Gosh I'm smart eh?

Agreed, but it takes a few games before it becomes meaningful.

[89Hen]

Seriously? Sagarins are completely worthless for I-AA's... have been for many, many years. xcoffeex

[Ronin]

Here is another interesting statistic from Sagrin. Who played and who hasn't.

FCS teams that played a top 10 FBS team

Northern Iowa
App State
Youngstown St.
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina
Chattanooga

Top 30 FBS team as an opponent

Furman
Eastern Washington
Mass.
Villanova
Jacksonville St.
Citadel
Missouri St.
SC State
Idaho St.
Stephen F Austin
Charleston Southern
Norfolk St.
SE Missouri State

[89Hen]

2007 Final Sagarins...

1. Appalachian State
2. Northern Iowa
3. Richmond
4. North Dakota State
5. Delaware
6. Southern Illinois
7. Massachusetts
8. James Madison
9. Wofford
10. Villanova
11. Elon
12. New Hampshire
13. Georgia Southern
14. South Dakota State
15. McNeese State
16. The Citadel
17. Montana
18. Youngstown State
19. Furman
20. Hofstra
21. Eastern Washington
22. Yale
23. Western Illinois
24. Liberty
25. Harvard

[McTailGator]

I think they're pretty darn accurate.

I also think the 11 year streak of the home team winning the UNI v. SIU game comes to an end Saturday.

Gosh I'm smart eh?


I think Sargin is very good from week 4 on, but prior to that, not as much. Not enough up to date data initially.

[youwouldno]

As a factual matter, Sagarin is pretty accurate-- FCS betting lines are largely based off it and there is only the occasional whacked-out line (~2-4 a week).

[UNI Pike]

That is a downside of the computer model, and Sagarin notes that in the disclaimer on top of the model. Another is that the model is reactive, not forward looking. A good example is what has happened with Washington State Univ this year. The model can not account for the team losing its starting QB, and backup (?) until weeks later. Or Oregon last year when Dixon blew his knee out. Human polls can account for this information sooner.

Overall, the math pencils out. As with any other system, there will be examples pointed out to show how it can not work.

[Wolfman]

2007 Final Sagarins...

1. Appalachian State
2. Northern Iowa
3. Richmond
4. North Dakota State
5. Delaware
6. Southern Illinois
7. Massachusetts
8. James Madison
9. Wofford
10. Villanova
11. Elon
12. New Hampshire
13. Georgia Southern
14. South Dakota State
15. McNeese State
16. The Citadel
17. Montana
18. Youngstown State
19. Furman
20. Hofstra
21. Eastern Washington
22. Yale
23. Western Illinois
24. Liberty
25. Harvard



I agree that the Sagarin rankings become more valid as the season progresses. By the end of the year, they are the most accurate rankings of any.

Could not resist commenting on the fact that Montana finished 2007 ranked #17. They were ranked in the Top 3 most of the year, as they are every year including this one.

The Sagarin rankings confirm what I have been saying about the Griz's easy regular season schedule every year under Hauck. It allows them to be ranked near the top all season, then get busted down to where they belong after Bobby's annual playoff debacle.

As a long-time Griz fan, our Top 5 rankings under previous coaches used to actually mean something, because we always played a very competitive schedule in those days. The Big Sky conference is a shell of its former self, losing Boise, Idaho, and Nevada. Now, they mean zilcho! xrolleyesx

[Wolfman]

2007 Final Sagarins...

1. Appalachian State
2. Northern Iowa
3. Richmond
4. North Dakota State
5. Delaware
6. Southern Illinois
7. Massachusetts
8. James Madison
9. Wofford
10. Villanova
11. Elon
12. New Hampshire
13. Georgia Southern
14. South Dakota State
15. McNeese State
16. The Citadel
17. Montana
18. Youngstown State
19. Furman
20. Hofstra
21. Eastern Washington
22. Yale
23. Western Illinois
24. Liberty
25. Harvard



I agree that the Sagarin rankings become more valid as the season progresses. By the end of the year, they are the most accurate rankings of any.

Could not resist commenting on the fact that Montana finished 2007 ranked #17. They were ranked in the Top 3 most of the year, as they are every year including this one.

The Sagarin rankings confirm what I have been saying about the Griz's easy regular season schedule every year under Hauck. It allows them to be ranked near the top all season, then get busted down to where they belong after Bobby's annual playoff debacle.

As a long-time Griz fan, our Top 5 rankings under previous coaches used to actually mean something, because we always played a very competitive schedule in those days. The Big Sky conference is a shell of its former self, losing Boise, Idaho, and Nevada. Now, they mean zilcho! xrolleyesx

[Grizalltheway]

I agree that the Sagarin rankings become more valid as the season progresses. By the end of the year, they are the most accurate rankings of any.

Could not resist commenting on the fact that Montana finished 2007 ranked #17. They were ranked in the Top 3 most of the year, as they are every year including this one.

The Sagarin rankings confirm what I have been saying about the Griz's easy regular season schedule every year under Hauck. It allows them to be ranked near the top all season, then get busted down to where they belong after Bobby's annual playoff debacle.

As a long-time Griz fan, our Top 5 rankings under previous coaches used to actually mean something, because we always played a very competitive schedule in those days. The Big Sky conference is a shell of its former self, losing Boise, Idaho, and Nevada. Now, they mean zilcho! xrolleyesx

Yeah, that was a pretty big loss, Wolfie. xrolleyesx

[HensRock]

I prefer the Born Index. For those that play the spread pool on GoHens.net that wonder how I get my spreads, there is your answer. I prefer it to Sagarin because he ranks ALL college teams from ALL levels using ALL games as data points.

In book making, the goal of a spread is not to come as close as possible to the actual outcome. The goal is to get as close as possible to a 50/50 split in your action taking each side of the wager. New this year, I've added the split statistics for the week's games. They are only visible after the picks are locked in each week. They show how balanced the action is on each game. Granted, there are a few lopsided choices each week, but they tend to decrease as the year goes on. Coincidentally, this week's card features the largest spread I've ever put on a game, and understandibly most players so far are taking Southern Virginia and the 78.5 points! What possessed McNeese to schedule a NAIA team, I'll never know! Sagarin doesn't rank non Div-I teams, so Born makes my life a lot easier for handicapping games like this. I don't always agree with the spreads, but at least it's unbiased.

[Green26]

Montana has finished the season in the top 5 of the Sagarin ratings in 3 of the past 5 years.

[Tribe4SF]

Sagarin has three separate ratings for a team. The "predictor" on the right hand side gets very accurate as the season moves on.

[uofmman1122]

I agree that the Sagarin rankings become more valid as the season progresses. By the end of the year, they are the most accurate rankings of any.

Could not resist commenting on the fact that Montana finished 2007 ranked #17. They were ranked in the Top 3 most of the year, as they are every year including this one.

The Sagarin rankings confirm what I have been saying about the Griz's easy regular season schedule every year under Hauck. It allows them to be ranked near the top all season, then get busted down to where they belong after Bobby's annual playoff debacle.

As a long-time Griz fan, our Top 5 rankings under previous coaches used to actually mean something, because we always played a very competitive schedule in those days. The Big Sky conference is a shell of its former self, losing Boise, Idaho, and Nevada. Now, they mean zilcho! xrolleyesxSince you care about it so much, I thought you'd like to know Montana is ranked #2 in the FCS in the Sagarin Ratings. xwhistlex

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

In a word - NO.

[89Hen]

As a factual matter, Sagarin is pretty accurate-- FCS betting lines are largely based off it and there is only the occasional whacked-out line (~2-4 a week).

By the end of the year, they are the most accurate rankings of any.
xconfusedx There are no betting lines in I-AA and I don't think anyone can show that Sagarin is factually accurate. xconfusedx

[HensRock]

Since you care about it so much, I thought you'd like to know Montana is ranked #2 in the FCS in the Sagarin Ratings. xwhistlex

...and 9th using the Born Index if you care. Maybe it's more realistic? Maybe not.

Born predicts a 15.9 point Griz victory this weekend. What does Sagarin predict? .... <crickets>

[Green26]

In the past 5 seasons, UM, App St and No Iowa have each been ranked in the top 5 of Sagarin 3 times. Delaware and So Ill have each been ranked in the top 5 two times.

Is this yet further evidence that the UM program has been "dumbed-down", "declined" and is in "shambles"--since coach Hauck arrived in Missoula?

[FCS Go!]

In the past 5 seasons, UM, App St and No Iowa have each been ranked in the top 5 of Sagarin 3 times. Delaware and So Ill have each been ranked in the top 5 two times.

Is this yet further evidence that the UM program has been "dumbed-down", "declined" and is in "shambles"--since coach Hauck arrived in Missoula?

Careful there G26, there's no use conflating evidence of success with dreams of failure.

[Wolfman]

In the past 5 seasons, UM, App St and No Iowa have each been ranked in the top 5 of Sagarin 3 times. Delaware and So Ill have each been ranked in the top 5 two times.

Is this yet further evidence that the UM program has been "dumbed-down", "declined" and is in "shambles"--since coach Hauck arrived in Missoula?



Yet another example of how you twist the numbers, and tell only the part of the story to make your boyfriend look good. I will CORRECT your INCORRECT statements concerning the Sagarin rankings.

While it is indeed true that Montana has been ranked very high during the regular season in the Sagarin rankings each year Hauck has been coach, they have been ranked behind 10-15 other FSC teams in the FINAL Sagarin rankings in three of Hauck's five seasons. It is easy to be ranked high when you are undefeated and padding your record against patsies. But, the true rankings are the ones at the end of the season, when Montana is ranked behind 10 or more other FCS teams, like the #17 final ranking they had last season, after being ranked in the Top 3 nationally in almost every poll the whole year. Remember that sterling 11-0 record, achieved against nobodies??? It catches up to ya when you finally have to play a real team in the playoffs.

Next..... xsmhx

[Wolfman]

Montana has finished the season in the top 5 of the Sagarin ratings in 3 of the past 5 years.


This is an unbridled LIE. You are losing credibility with each sucrose-induced post you make. You now have been reduced to lying to try to make a point about your boyfriend. The national FCS fan base is not stupod, you know. You insult their intelligence, and are an embarrasment to Griz fans everywhere. Go away!

[Wolfman]

xconfusedx There are no betting lines in I-AA and I don't think anyone can show that Sagarin is factually accurate. xconfusedx



How can any ranking be "factual"?? They are all merely opinions.

As for Vegas lines on IAA games, you are incorrect. The national championship game has a line. In our last NC game, Montana was a 5-point favorite over JMU, and Hauck lost. Most sugar coaters tried to blame it on the playing field condidtions. Hauck simply got outcoached again. Gee, what a surprise!

[griz8791]

. . . It is easy to be ranked high when you are undefeated and padding your record against patsies . . .

You are definitely right that being behind 10 or more FCS programs in the final Sagarin ranking of the season is unacceptable. But I take issue with the foregoing quote because I've always understood Sagarin's formula to be heavily biased in favor of strength of schedule. If that is the case, then you can't bamboozle it by loading up on patsies.

[Green26]

My stats were taken from Sagarin at the end of the "season", not the regular season. They are the ratings after the playoffs have concluded.

Again, UM has been ranked in the top 5 of the Sagarin ratings (done in early January of the next year after the FBS bowls have been completed) in 3 of the past 5 years.

Here's Wolfman's early quote: "By the end of the year, they are the most accurate rankings of any."

[89Hen]

How can any ranking be "factual"?? They are all merely opinions.

As for Vegas lines on IAA games, you are incorrect. The national championship game has a line.
That was my point. Somebody said it was factual that Sagarin was better.

As for one game out of over 500-600 to actually have a line, I'll stand by my comment that I-AA games don't have lines. xpeacex

[Green26]

Hello, Wolfman. Earth to Wolfman. Can you explain the following:

You said this: "By the end of the year, they [the Sagarins] are the most accurate rankings of any."

The facts are that:

Montana has been rated in the top 5 of Sagarin, along with ASU and NI, 3 of the past 5 years (i.e. Bobby Hauck's years at UM)--at the end of the playoff and BBS seasons.

In the past 5 seasons, UM, App St and No Iowa have each been ranked in the top 5 of Sagarin 3 times. Delaware and So Ill have each been ranked in the top 5 two times.

[BDKJMU]

Seriously? Sagarins are completely worthless for I-AA's... have been for many, many years. xcoffeex

Then name the computer rankings that are better than the Sagarin for I-AAs?

[DSUrocks07]

2007 Final Sagarins...

1. Appalachian State
2. Northern Iowa
3. Richmond
4. North Dakota State
5. Delaware
6. Southern Illinois
7. Massachusetts
8. James Madison
9. Wofford
10. Villanova
11. Elon
12. New Hampshire
13. Georgia Southern
14. South Dakota State
15. McNeese State
16. The Citadel
17. Montana
18. Youngstown State
19. Furman
20. Hofstra
21. Eastern Washington
22. Yale
23. Western Illinois
24. Liberty
25. Harvard

Delaware State wasn't even in the top 25? I'd say that that was pretty accurate then xlolx

[GannonFan]

Delaware State wasn't even in the top 25? I'd say that that was pretty accurate then xlolx

Sagarin just saw what was going to happen in the 1st round of the playoffs last year long before anyone else did. Darn he's good!!! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Wolfman]

Hello, Wolfman. Earth to Wolfman. Can you explain the following:

You said this: "By the end of the year, they [the Sagarins] are the most accurate rankings of any."

The facts are that:

Montana has been rated in the top 5 of Sagarin, along with ASU and NI, 3 of the past 5 years (i.e. Bobby Hauck's years at UM)--at the end of the playoff and BBS seasons.

In the past 5 seasons, UM, App St and No Iowa have each been ranked in the top 5 of Sagarin 3 times. Delaware and So Ill have each been ranked in the top 5 two times.



Yeah right. The Griz have lost the first round of the playoffs in three of the past 5 years, and Sgarin ranks them in the Top 5 in the nation following their early exit from a 16-team playoff? R-I-G-H-T ! Are you smoking Bobby's old jock strap again?

[89Hen]

Delaware State wasn't even in the top 25? I'd say that that was pretty accurate then xlolx

Sagarin just saw what was going to happen in the 1st round of the playoffs last year long before anyone else did. Darn he's good!!! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx
Actually those final rankings were after the playoffs and bowls. I really wish I could find the Sagarins from the end of the regular season... I guarantee they would have been good for a laugh.

[89Hen]

Then name the computer rankings that are better than the Sagarin for I-AAs?
You must not know me very well. ALL computer rankings suck IMO. xpeacex

[Wolfman]

You are definitely right that being behind 10 or more FCS programs in the final Sagarin ranking of the season is unacceptable. But I take issue with the foregoing quote because I've always understood Sagarin's formula to be heavily biased in favor of strength of schedule. If that is the case, then you can't bamboozle it by loading up on patsies.



You are partially correct. Strength of schedule is indeed a factor in his rankings. However, W/L record and margin of victory over previously predicted margin of victory is a huge factor in his rankings. So, the Griz pummel a patsy by 40 points, and get ranked higher the following week.

If the Griz do not defeat CWU by at least 24 points on Saturday,their Sagarin ranking will go down. If they exceed that marging, it will go up.

[Green26]

Here's the link to the final Sagarin ratings for the 2003 season--a year in which UM lost in the first round of the playoffs. UM is the no. 5 ranked I-AA team. Like you said, Wolfie, the post-season Sagarin ratings are the "most accurate rankings".

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt03.htm

[DSUrocks07]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt03.htm


40 Delaware AA = 76.15 15 1 56.85( 127)
223 Delaware St. AA = 22.80 1 10 38.82( 197)

Don't remind me...xsmhx

[griz8791]

That's a killer animation, DSUrocks.

[DSUrocks07]

That's a killer animation, DSUrocks.

I thought it was fake at first but turns out it really happened

Breakdancer kicks kid (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0ClsfcFFcE)

[Wolfman]

Here's the link to the final Sagarin ratings for the 2003 season--a year in which UM lost in the first round of the playoffs. UM is the no. 5 ranked I-AA team. Like you said, Wolfie, the post-season Sagarin ratings are the "most accurate rankings".

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt03.htm


You are correct in saying that the Griz were ranked in the Top 5 post-season in 3 of Hauck's seasons. I will admit that I was wrong about that, something that you will never do, and you are wrong frequently.

What you do not say, however, is that Montana was ranked #2 among IAA team by Sagarin BEFORE the loss to W. Illinois.

Furthermore, in the other two one-n-done seasons, the Griz were ranked #2 and #3 before they lost, only to fall out of the top 10 post-season. Not a sterling record for your boyfriend, I might add.