Playoff Prognostications - 9/21

[TexasTerror]

I really want to stir up some conversation. Rip me all you want! Atleast I was willing to stick myself out on a limb. 4 CAA, 3 SoCon, 3 MVFC and 2 Big Sky. When I was going through, I circled a few matchups in each conference that could really change the names listed below, so I can keep up with those as we update this, possibly week to week...

Auto-Bids
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - Richmond
MEAC - Hampton
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
OVC - Tennessee State
Patriot - Lafayette
SoCon - Furman
Southland - McNeese

At-Larges (in no particular order)
1) Eastern Washington
2) New Hampshire
3) James Madison
4) William & Mary
5) Southern Illinois
6) North Dakota State
7) Elon
8) Appalachian State

Pairings
Elon @ (4) McNeese State
Eastern Washington @ North Dakota State

Lafayette @ Montana (1)
Furman @ Southern Illinois

Hampton @ Richmond (2)
New Hampshire @ Appalachian State

William & Mary @ Northern Iowa (3)
Tennessee State @ James Madison

[danefan]

William and Mary will meet its playoff fate in the next three weeks:

vs. Villanova
@ UNH
@ Delaware

And then they have to close the season @ JMU and home against Richmond.

They have to win at least three of those games. That's going to be very difficult.

[alexale23]

Even if william and Mary made it. Which they wont. They can't be paired against JMU

[Millwoch]

I really want to stir up some conversation. Rip me all you want! Atleast I was willing to stick myself out on a limb. 4 CAA, 3 SoCon, 3 MVFC and 2 Big Sky. When I was going through, I circled a few matchups in each conference that could really change the names listed below, so I can keep up with those as we update this, possibly week to week...

Auto-Bids
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - Richmond
MEAC - Hampton
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
OVC - Tennessee State
Patriot - Lafayette
SoCon - Furman
Southland - McNeese

At-Larges (in no particular order)
1) Eastern Washington
2) New Hampshire
3) James Madison
4) William & Mary
5) Southern Illinois
6) North Dakota State
7) Elon
8) Appalachian State

Pairings
Elon @ (4) McNeese State
Eastern Washington @ North Dakota State

Hampton @ Montana (1)
Furman @ Southern Illinois

Lafayette @ Richmond (2)
New Hampshire @ Appalachian State

Tennessee State @ Northern Iowa (3)
William & Mary @ James Madison

I agree with 3 socon teams, but think Wofford will be one of those. They may get the automatic bid again...they have a lot more speed than you guys think, and damn if they did not throw the ball well last night. They we down to USC by 3 with 3 min left in game. That will leave out FU, Appy, or Elon. Elon already has one big SOCON win and that was at GSU. If app loses 2 more they could be left out...that is a big if, as the 2 teams they lost 2 are damn good teams. I do not see anyone going undefeated in SOCON play this year. But who will beat who? Next week we will know a little more...especially if Wofford beats GSU(GSU will start off 0-2 in conference play with FU and Appy left to play)

I say it will be:

Auto bid Socon= wofford
At Large: Appy
Elon

FU will lose to wofford and Appy but beat El cid and Elon thus making a valid point for taking Elon's spot or a 4th team. The win over Delaware will look very good to the selection committee.

Just to early to really predict anything here. The conference is just so strong this year. GSU will improve as the year goes on, just like last year. So catching them early like Elon and Wofford do may be an advantage.

[danefan]

Even if william and Mary made it. Which they wont. They can't be paired against JMU

True.

And plus I'd think that the committee would put Hampton @ Richmond for a nice in-state game.

[Grizalltheway]

At this point I would lean towards EWU getting the auto bid from the Big Sky, but it's really too early to tell for sure.

[BisonBacker]

No South Dakota State? At this point I'd be putting them in there as an at large b4 NDSU but that could change before the regular season is done. I just don't see NDSU ready to make that playoff spot based on the last two weeks performances.

[slostang]

Don't count out Cal Poly just yet.

[alexale23]

Im thinkin JMU is gonna get a home game this year finally. And with the rivalry with ASu they probably will put ASU in the other bracket to possible meet in title game. Personally I think UR is a little over rated. They have not beat a top 15 team. They looked good against UVA but UVA suxs bad. They will be lucky to win 1 more game all year.

[Hambone]

what about Cal Poly? What if the only other game they lose is Wisco?

[danefan]

Im thinkin JMU is gonna get a home game this year finally. And with the rivalry with ASu they probably will put ASU in the other bracket to possible meet in title game. Personally I think UR is a little over rated. They have not beat a top 15 team. They looked good against UVA but UVA suxs bad. They will be lucky to win 1 more game all year.


Richmond has VMI, Georgetown, Hofstra, and W&M left. There better be at least 2 wins in there....xconfusedx

[danefan]

Not having South Dak. St. and Cal Poly point out one thing: at this point - its near impossible to figure this out. Cal Poly and South Dakota State are both worthy of being included at this point but who from the list do you take off, besides William & Mary.

I have a feeling there's going to be some really deserving teams that don't make it this year.

[TexasTerror]

And plus I'd think that the committee would put Hampton @ Richmond for a nice in-state game.

Good call -- fixed my prognostications!


Even if william and Mary made it. Which they wont. They can't be paired against JMU

Good point -- my mistake. Had problems with the pairings and just threw it up there...


what about Cal Poly? What if the only other game they lose is Wisco?

It's early -- Cal Poly is also on the list of teams I considered, but I want to a) see if they get that extra game and b) if they can even make it through the schedule they have.


Not having South Dak. St. and Cal Poly point out one thing: at this point - its near impossible to figure this out. Cal Poly and South Dakota State are both worthy of being included at this point but who from the list do you take off, besides William & Mary. I have a feeling there's going to be some really deserving teams that don't make it this year.

Too early to be doing this, but knew it'd stir some discussion. It obviously has! I got SDSU and Cal Poly on this nice little printout I made of things to watch for...I hope SDSU vs NDSU is an "elimination game". That'd be fun!

[bjtheflamesfan]

I think that this weekends game @YSU will go a long way to whether or not Liberty gets in the playoff discussion. They are coming off a huge win over NDSU and are gonna really be flyin high and want to knock off another ranked team

[danefan]

I think that this weekends game @YSU will go a long way to whether or not Liberty gets in the playoff discussion. They are coming off a huge win over NDSU and are gonna really be flyin high and want to knock off another ranked team

You assume that Liberty will still be ranked after this weekend. There's going to be a lot of movement in the polls and that tough game against BYE this week may knock Liberty right out. Seriously.

[TexasTerror]

I think that this weekends game @YSU will go a long way to whether or not Liberty gets in the playoff discussion. They are coming off a huge win over NDSU and are gonna really be flyin high and want to knock off another ranked team

Liberty may have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs. Presbyterian game, that doesn't count this year and North Greenville. Gotta beat YSU and possibly even Coastal Carolina to really make a statement for a Big South at-large bid.

[PantherRob82]

Don't count out Cal Poly just yet.

Agreed. Someone out west needs to head to Missoula.

[Mountaineer]

SoCon - Furman


Really? xconfusedx

Furman plays at Elon, at Wofford and at Appalachian. Way too soon to start predicting SoCon autobids. xthumbsupx

[PantherRob82]

Im thinkin JMU is gonna get a home game this year finally. And with the rivalry with ASu they probably will put ASU in the other bracket to possible meet in title game. Personally I think UR is a little over rated. They have not beat a top 15 team. They looked good against UVA but UVA suxs bad. They will be lucky to win 1 more game all year.

sucks or sux.....not suxs...they suxes?

[alexale23]

Richmond has VMI, Georgetown, Hofstra, and W&M left. There better be at least 2 wins in there....xconfusedx

Richmond has JMU also

UR schedule is alot easier then JMU. No Umass no APP. come on elon is ok but there no APP.

[danefan]

Richmond has JMU also

UR schedule is alot easier then JMU. No Umass no APP. come on elon is ok but there no APP.

I was just pointing out Richmond's "easy" games left.

[TexasTerror]

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED -- stirred up some discussion, got folks looking at schedules and crapping all over my AQ selections (particularly in CAA and SoCon). :)

[alexale23]

Yes UR has alot of cupcakes. That will get you in the playoffs. But you ant winning

[BDKJMU]

Its retarded to try to predict a playoff field in Sept. Anyone here has about as much chance of being accurate with this as they do of going to the moon. Picking teams from your own conference is one thing, but there should be no 16 team playoff prediction threads allowed on AGS till at least mid Oct.

[alexale23]

u prolly right but im guessin most people can pick at least half the field. At least we have playoffs to debate shoot

[PantherRob82]

Why not, it's fun. Just provokes conversation. Top 16 in the polls are pretty solid....it's below 16 that is difficult.

[alexale23]

I do know 1 thing for sure JMU will beat UR in their house

[PantherRob82]

Auto-Bids
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - Richmond
MEAC - Hampton
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
OVC - Tennessee State
Patriot - Lafayette
SoCon - Wofford
Southland - McNeese

At-Larges (in no particular order)
1) Eastern Washington
2) New Hampshire
3) James Madison
4) Cal Poly
5) Southern Illinois
6) South Dakota State
7) Elon
8) Appalachian State

Pairings
Cal Poly @ McNeese State (4)
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State

Lafayette @ Montana (1)
Wofford @ Southern Illinois

Tennessee State @ Northern Iowa (2)
New Hampshire @ Appalachian State

Elon @ (3) Richmond
Hampton @ James Madison


something like that xrolleyesx

[CatfishKhan]

Richmond has JMU also

UR schedule is alot easier then JMU. No Umass no APP. come on elon is ok but there no APP.

Richmond plays UMASS on the road. And Elon, who Richmond beat on the road 28 - 10, has as many wins as all of the teams JMU beat combined -- app has 1, umass has 2, and north carolina central has 0.

[PantherRob82]

I do know 1 thing for sure JMU will beat UR in their house

definitely, you've never been wrong before. xrolleyesx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Screamin_Eagle174]

At this point I would lean towards EWU getting the auto bid from the Big Sky, but it's really too early to tell for sure.

Not if the defense (xbawlingx) from last night shows up the rest of the year.

[FargoBison]

SIU-WIU-@UNI is a stretch that will say a lot about where NDSU stands...

[putter]

I am hoping with Wofford being sent to Missoula last year that the committee is slowly getting rid of regionalization and sending teams where they may.

[danefan]

I am hoping with Wofford being sent to Missoula last year that the committee is slowly getting rid of regionalization and sending teams where they may.

I doubt it. There will always be an odd game that forces someone to be sent on the road.

With that being said, I expect them to have to seed at least 8 teams in 2010 and will hopefully lead to the end of regionalization also.

[TexasTerror]

I am hoping with Wofford being sent to Missoula last year that the committee is slowly getting rid of regionalization and sending teams where they may.

Still in the committee book on how things are figured out. The lack of a second SLC team has impacted the Montana first round game heavily...xnodx

[alexale23]

Richmond plays UMASS on the road. And Elon, who Richmond beat on the road 28 - 10, has as many wins as all of the teams JMU beat combined -- app has 1, umass has 2, and north carolina central has 0.

Didnt realise UR plays UMass on road but the win thing dont matter until the end of the season.

[TexasTerror]

I am hoping with Wofford being sent to Missoula last year that the committee is slowly getting rid of regionalization and sending teams where they may.

Still in the committee book on how things are figured out. The lack of a second SLC team has impacted the Montana first round game heavily...xnodx

[dgreco]

no W&M, maybe SDSU ?

[alexale23]

definitely, you've never been wrong before. xrolleyesx xlolx xlolx xlolx

I was not wrong about this weekend

[PantherRob82]

There is always some stupid games that aren't regionalized. How does the first seed get New Hamp at home? They're not the worst team or even close to us.

[Eaglesrus]

I agree with 3 socon teams, but think Wofford will be one of those. They may get the automatic bid again...they have a lot more speed than you guys think, and damn if they did not throw the ball well last night. They we down to USC by 3 with 3 min left in game. That will leave out FU, Appy, or Elon. Elon already has one big SOCON win and that was at GSU. If app loses 2 more they could be left out...that is a big if, as the 2 teams they lost 2 are damn good teams. I do not see anyone going undefeated in SOCON play this year. But who will beat who? Next week we will know a little more...especially if Wofford beats GSU(GSU will start off 0-2 in conference play with FU and Appy left to play)

I say it will be:

Auto bid Socon= wofford
At Large: Appy
Elon

FU will lose to wofford and Appy but beat El cid and Elon thus making a valid point for taking Elon's spot or a 4th team. The win over Delaware will look very good to the selection committee.

Just to early to really predict anything here. The conference is just so strong this year. GSU will improve as the year goes on, just like last year. So catching them early like Elon and Wofford do may be an advantage.

Though I think a lot of unexpected things may happen in the SoCon this year, I also think that this is an excellent analysis at this point in the season.

[james_lawfirm]

sucks or sux.....not suxs...they suxes?

Ah, the grammarian strikes again!

[james_lawfirm]

Liberty may have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs. Presbyterian game, that doesn't count this year and North Greenville. Gotta beat YSU and possibly even Coastal Carolina to really make a statement for a Big South at-large bid.


Are you sure that Presbyterian does not count this year? I thought they just joined the Big South, and this was the first year they DID count. And, by "count", I presume you mean count as a Div. 1 win for playoff purposes.

[james_lawfirm]

I am hoping with Wofford being sent to Missoula last year that the committee is slowly getting rid of regionalization and sending teams where they may.

Nah, that rule just applies to Wofford.

[CopperCat]

Conference play hasn't even started for some teams yet, so I won't make any assertions as to what the playoff picture will be. This past weekend did provide some interesting perspective on what we might expect though. This weekend should be even more exciting with some pretty big games coming up.

UNI/SIU
Wofford/Ga. So.
Richmond/Villanova
WCU/El Cid

Those are a few games that might be of interest to a few of us. More specifically to the Big Sky, there are more OOC games that should lend a little more insight to how the season will go. UM is playing its cupcake (Central Washington) and Weber is at Utah, while MSU is playing South Dakota (could be a scary game).

[Cocky]

Conference play hasn't even started for some teams yet, so I won't make any assertions as to what the playoff picture will be. This past weekend did provide some interesting perspective on what we might expect though. This weekend should be even more exciting with some pretty big games coming up.

UNI/SIU
Wofford/Ga. So.
Richmond/Villanova
WCU/El Cid

Those are a few games that might be of interest to a few of us. More specifically to the Big Sky, there are more OOC games that should lend a little more insight to how the season will go. UM is playing its cupcake (Central Washington) and Weber is at Utah, while MSU is playing South Dakota (could be a scary game).


EIU v JSU will be a very big game in the OVC this weekend.

[kirkblitz]

i think if coastal goes 10-2 (1 loss to penn state) we might make it. That is assuming the big south gets its act together other then liberty and vmi.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Yes UR has alot of cupcakes. That will get you in the playoffs. But you ant winning

xconfusedx

We play the same league schedule.

Out of conference we play Elon, UVA, Georgetown, VMI.

You play Duke, App, NC Central and have a bye (should have been Liberty, but you ducked them, right?)

I guess we'll see who's been playing cupcakes on 10/11.

[Big Dawg]

I don't see Hampton winning the MEAC this year.

[RabidRabbit]

Good call -- fixed my prognostications!



Good point -- my mistake. Had problems with the pairings and just threw it up there...



It's early -- Cal Poly is also on the list of teams I considered, but I want to a) see if they get that extra game and b) if they can even make it through the schedule they have.



Too early to be doing this, but knew it'd stir some discussion. It obviously has! I got SDSU and Cal Poly on this nice little printout I made of things to watch for...I hope SDSU vs NDSU is an "elimination game". That'd be fun!


In many ways, 10/14 Poly visits SDSU in Brookings that is likely to be a make the play-off game for both teams. With 2 losses (Wis is almost a given L for the Stangs), only 10 games, and 1 non-counter (USD yotes), Stangs need to get the W at Brookings to make 7 D-I wins. All this assumes no D-I eligible make up game for the McNeese game missed due to Ike.

SDSU at 2-2 hosts McNeese and Poly OOC, has the "easy 3" MoValley, but finish at SIU and NDSU. Jacks will finish no worse than 5-3 in MoValley, but hopefully could steal a win at SIU or NDSU. So need to win those October dates with the best of the GWFC & Southland. xpeacex

[PantherRob82]

Ah, the grammarian strikes again!

I never check grammar. Just found that to be funny. Plus it's Alex.

[bostonspider]

Yes UR has alot of cupcakes. That will get you in the playoffs. But you ant winning

Richmond and JMU have the exact same league schedule, including UMass, Maine & Hofstra from the north and W&M, Towson, UD & Nova from the south. So out of conference, we are trading UVA for Duke, ASU for Elon, and NCCU for a the twosome of Georgetown and VMI. We have one more cupcake than JMU because we play 12 games versus 11... Do a little research please.

[griz&beer]

Teams to watch NDSU ,Cal Polly, EWU (wins big sky?)

[gophoenix]

Presbyterian counts this year. Both them and Stony Brook are up for the Big South Championship this year. Presbyterian can't make the playoffs this year, but they count.

[SuperJon]

Liberty may have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs. Presbyterian game, that doesn't count this year and North Greenville. Gotta beat YSU and possibly even Coastal Carolina to really make a statement for a Big South at-large bid.

You couldn't be more wrong with this statement.

a) Presbyterian counts.
b) Under the new earned access rule, Liberty has set themselves up very well for the playoffs.

You must win two games against teams from an auto-bid league. We have four of those games scheduled. We have one win already (WCU - SoCon). We have three left - at Youngstown State (MVFC), Lafayette (PL), and Elon (SoCon). If we win one more of those games, we give ourselves the minimum.

You must also have eight Division I wins. To win the Big South, you generally have to go undefeated. That would be six Division I wins (Coastal, G-W, CSU, VMI, PC, Stony Brook). If we get the minimum requirement of the auto-bid league wins, that gives us our minimum requirement of eight Division I wins.

Now here's the tough part: We have to be ranked in the top 16. To do that, we're going to have to win at least one of those other two auto-bid league games, if not both.

It won't be easy, but if we go out and meet the requirements set before us, we're in the playoffs. It doesn't matter if every single person on this board disagrees with that. If we can go out and do those three things, we're in the playoffs no questions asked.

Our schedule could've been better. We all know that. We all know the reasons it wasn't. Those don't need to be rehashed again. Even with the schedule we have now, we have a legitimate shot at getting into the playoffs.

Also, if we get the first two requirements (two auto-big league wins and eight Division I wins) and we're ranked, say 18th or something, and there are Ivy's or schools that aren't eligible in front of us, I'd have to think we would get in. It wouldn't be an automatic at-large, but I'd have to think the committee would put us in.

[URMite]

Richmond has VMI, Georgetown, Hofstra, and W&M left. There better be at least 2 wins in there....xconfusedx

I thought Alex's statement "They looked good against UVA but UVA suxs bad. They will be lucky to win 1 more game all year." Meant UVA will only win 1 but he never corrected you. So maybe he did mean UR like you thought.

If so it is ok, we already have Mickey being Mickey and now we have Alex being Alex.xlolx

[URMite]

Richmond has VMI, Georgetown, Hofstra, and W&M left. There better be at least 2 wins in there....xconfusedx

I thought Alex's statement "They looked good against UVA but UVA suxs bad. They will be lucky to win 1 more game all year." Meant UVA will only win 1 but he never corrected you. So maybe he did mean UR like you thought.

If so it is ok, we already have Mickey being Mickey and now we have Alex being Alex.xlolx

[URMite]

There is always some stupid games that aren't regionalized. How does the first seed get New Hamp at home? They're not the worst team or even close to us.

I thought they were the only 4 loss team though and that could explain it. 4 losses and <12k attendance = road game somewhere.

I guess Wofford and UNH were the 2 teams without a regional partner.

[URMite]

I do know 1 thing for sure JMU will beat UR in their house

Anyone can make guarantees instead of presenting analysis. I could just as easily say your statement will be difficult to achieve since JMU won't get 100 yds rushing. See what I mean?xsmiley_wix

"Yes UR has alot of cupcakes. That will get you in the playoffs. But you ant winning"

Would the cupcakes include 3 of the next 4 weeks:
@Villanova
JMU
@UMass

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I am hoping with Wofford being sent to Missoula last year that the committee is slowly getting rid of regionalization and sending teams where they may.

Which explains JMU going to YSU in 2006 and App St in 2007... xrolleyesx Regionalization is definitely here to stay. But is more East coast teams make it, somebody has to head out West.

[kirkblitz]

You couldn't be more wrong with this statement.

a) Presbyterian counts.
b) Under the new earned access rule, Liberty has set themselves up very well for the playoffs.

You must win two games against teams from an auto-bid league. We have four of those games scheduled. We have one win already (WCU - SoCon). We have three left - at Youngstown State (MVFC), Lafayette (PL), and Elon (SoCon). If we win one more of those games, we give ourselves the minimum.

You must also have eight Division I wins. To win the Big South, you generally have to go undefeated. That would be six Division I wins (Coastal, G-W, CSU, VMI, PC, Stony Brook). If we get the minimum requirement of the auto-bid league wins, that gives us our minimum requirement of eight Division I wins.

Now here's the tough part: We have to be ranked in the top 16. To do that, we're going to have to win at least one of those other two auto-bid league games, if not both.

It won't be easy, but if we go out and meet the requirements set before us, we're in the playoffs. It doesn't matter if every single person on this board disagrees with that. If we can go out and do those three things, we're in the playoffs no questions asked.

Our schedule could've been better. We all know that. We all know the reasons it wasn't. Those don't need to be rehashed again. Even with the schedule we have now, we have a legitimate shot at getting into the playoffs.

Also, if we get the first two requirements (two auto-big league wins and eight Division I wins) and we're ranked, say 18th or something, and there are Ivy's or schools that aren't eligible in front of us, I'd have to think we would get in. It wouldn't be an automatic at-large, but I'd have to think the committee would put us in.


liberty will be in right behind coastal xsmiley_wix

[th0m]

liberty will be in right behind coastal xsmiley_wix

So basically you're saying, neither get in ;) Glad we're on the same page there.

[letsgopards04]

I really want to stir up some conversation. Rip me all you want! Atleast I was willing to stick myself out on a limb. 4 CAA, 3 SoCon, 3 MVFC and 2 Big Sky. When I was going through, I circled a few matchups in each conference that could really change the names listed below, so I can keep up with those as we update this, possibly week to week...

Auto-Bids
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - Richmond
MEAC - Hampton
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
OVC - Tennessee State
Patriot - Lafayette
SoCon - Furman
Southland - McNeese

At-Larges (in no particular order)
1) Eastern Washington
2) New Hampshire
3) James Madison
4) William & Mary
5) Southern Illinois
6) North Dakota State
7) Elon
8) Appalachian State

Pairings
Elon @ (4) McNeese State
Eastern Washington @ North Dakota State

Lafayette @ Montana (1)
Furman @ Southern Illinois

Hampton @ Richmond (2)
New Hampshire @ Appalachian State

William & Mary @ Northern Iowa (3)
Tennessee State @ James Madison

You are a wise man for picking the Leopards to win the PL.xthumbsupx

[Ronin]

SIU-WIU-@UNI is a stretch that will say a lot about where NDSU stands...

If 3 make it from the Valley UNI and SIU are the likely candidates. The remaining spot is a toss-up betweed SDSU, WIU and NDSU.

[Khan4Cats]

I am just going to focus on the MVFC since only the MEAC has really started conference play and some (Southland) won't even start for three more weeks.

In the MVFC, while all teams are still technically alive for an auto-bid, I think 3 are extreme long-shots. Indiana State, Missouri State, and Illinois State I think are all unlikely to challenge for a title, but they may play a spoiler for a couple of the others, well maybe not the Trees. So that leaves 6.

UNI looked much better after their bye week and showed more of what they 'can' be. Still need to eliminate mental errors (poor penalties) and game/situational awareness, but I believe they are the team to beat. UNI starts a key 6-game stretch at Carbonadale this week followed by three home dates then trips to YSU and WIU. Come away with 4 wins in those six weeks and 9-3 is very likely and would put them in. In my opinion, a win this Saturday could very vault them to a clean sweep.

NDSU has this week off to get healthy and then gets SIU and WIU at home. But they can't afford a loss at home there, since they would then have to come into UNI after those two bruising games. The schedule gets (relatively) easier after that with road games at IllSU and MSU sandwiching two off weeks (well one home game against InSU), before a home game with SDSU. Still a good shot at 8-3, in with that.

SDSU has a good shot at the play-offs playing 12 games and no non-counters. Start a three game non-conf stretch in four weeks. If they can beat SFA and split between McNeese and Cal-Poly (both in Brookings) They set up a chance to be 5-1 in conference heading into the last two conference roadies at SIU and NDSU. 8-4 probably gets them in.

SIU had a week off to prepare for UNI at home and NDSU on the road. They need at least a split before regrouping against InSU prior to travelling to YSU. With a non-counter still left on their 11 game schedule, they can't afford more than two conference losses. I see them as a long-shot to make 8-3, more likely 7-4 and left out with 6 D-I's.

WIU has a week off then at MSU and NDSU. I don't see them taking both, so assume a split there and beat InSU and they are still 4-3 with a must win against UNI to keep a chance at 7 D-I wins. Probably 7-4 with only 6 D-I's.

YSU is the other team still breathing and maybe a little more life after knocking of NDSU. They still get UNI and SIU at home before finishing on the road at WIU. Two non-conf games the next two weeks are must wins to buoy their chances. Win those and 8-4 and a berth are possible, lose either and they could stumble all the way to 6-6. Beware the Flames, this week will tell a lot.

So right now I see UNI, SDSU and NDSU in. YSU is passed over by NDSU based on D-I wins despite the head-to-head. 8-3 vs D-I trumps 7-4 vs D-I.

[furman94]

I love how most overlook us! Good! We are just like last year! We suck. write us down as a W in the books! :D

[Houndawg]

I am just going to focus on the MVFC since only the MEAC has really started conference play and some (Southland) won't even start for three more weeks.

In the MVFC, while all teams are still technically alive for an auto-bid, I think 3 are extreme long-shots. Indiana State, Missouri State, and Illinois State I think are all unlikely to challenge for a title, but they may play a spoiler for a couple of the others, well maybe not the Trees. So that leaves 6.

UNI looked much better after their bye week and showed more of what they 'can' be. Still need to eliminate mental errors (poor penalties) and game/situational awareness, but I believe they are the team to beat. UNI starts a key 6-game stretch at Carbonadale this week followed by three home dates then trips to YSU and WIU. Come away with 4 wins in those six weeks and 9-3 is very likely and would put them in. In my opinion, a win this Saturday could very vault them to a clean sweep.

NDSU has this week off to get healthy and then gets SIU and WIU at home. But they can't afford a loss at home there, since they would then have to come into UNI after those two bruising games. The schedule gets (relatively) easier after that with road games at IllSU and MSU sandwiching two off weeks (well one home game against InSU), before a home game with SDSU. Still a good shot at 8-3, in with that.

SDSU has a good shot at the play-offs playing 12 games and no non-counters. Start a three game non-conf stretch in four weeks. If they can beat SFA and split between McNeese and Cal-Poly (both in Brookings) They set up a chance to be 5-1 in conference heading into the last two conference roadies at SIU and NDSU. 8-4 probably gets them in.

SIU had a week off to prepare for UNI at home and NDSU on the road. They need at least a split before regrouping against InSU prior to travelling to YSU. With a non-counter still left on their 11 game schedule, they can't afford more than two conference losses. I see them as a long-shot to make 8-3, more likely 7-4 and left out with 6 D-I's.

WIU has a week off then at MSU and NDSU. I don't see them taking both, so assume a split there and beat InSU and they are still 4-3 with a must win against UNI to keep a chance at 7 D-I wins. Probably 7-4 with only 6 D-I's.

YSU is the other team still breathing and maybe a little more life after knocking of NDSU. They still get UNI and SIU at home before finishing on the road at WIU. Two non-conf games the next two weeks are must wins to buoy their chances. Win those and 8-4 and a berth are possible, lose either and they could stumble all the way to 6-6. Beware the Flames, this week will tell a lot.

So right now I see UNI, SDSU and NDSU in. YSU is passed over by NDSU based on D-I wins despite the head-to-head. 8-3 vs D-I trumps 7-4 vs D-I.

Call me homer, but I see 8-3 as very doable if we split with UNI/NDSU.

[Wolfman]

EWU will be the automatic Big Sky rep. Montana MAY be in the playoffs. App. State will win the national championship once again.

[furman94]

Says who? Did you pay attention in FCS class this past Saturday?

[aust42]

How can we be predicting playoffs after the 3rd week of the season?

[RabidRabbit]

How can we be predicting playoffs after the 3rd week of the season?

Because it's so fun to speculate xlolx xlolx

And doesn't cost us a thing but time! xthumbsupx xthumbsupx

[PantherRob82]

I thought they were the only 4 loss team though and that could explain it. 4 losses and <12k attendance = road game somewhere.

I guess Wofford and UNH were the 2 teams without a regional partner.

Yeah...but give the #1 seed the MEAC, OVC or PL champ. xrolleyesx

[PantherRob82]

If 3 make it from the Valley UNI and SIU are the likely candidates. The remaining spot is a toss-up betweed SDSU, WIU and NDSU.

I think we all may be wrong about SIU when it's all said and done. Might be too much of the past in their ranking.

[Houndawg]

I think we all may be wrong about SIU when it's all said and done. Might be too much of the past in their ranking.

New coach, new system. The jury is out on Lennon for sure, but the D is better than the first two games indicate. Northwestern played on half a field all night.

[FurmanPaladins4138]

SoCon - Furman


Thanks for the optimism...but let's get some things straight. FU has shown moments of potential, but there has also been a good deal of really sloppy play, and luckily, we are 3-1. Case in point: against Delaware, we intercepted a pass, ran it back, fumbled on the return, Delaware recovered. Next play we intercept again. Next play, we throw an interception. Now, call me crazy, but I don't think we'll be able to do that against, say, APP STATE, and win the game.
Sure, it could happen, but I think it's a little outlandish predicting Furman to win the SoCon over Wofford, App St., Elon, and the Citadel at this point.

Oh, and I really don't want anybody to jinx us at this point, either.

[Reign of Terrier]

Nah, that rule just applies to Wofford.

Because Montana is SO much closer than say JMU or App.
I'll skip the whole playoff predictions and give you a champion.....A socon team (I can't get more specific;) )

[drpnut]

I believe the SOCon champ will again have two league losses.

I believe three to four teams could finish with 2 losses creating mayhem, and if that happens one of the four will be left out of the playoffs.

However, it would be fair to let 4 SoCon teams in after last years CAA party.

[appfan2008]

Too many teams seem like they deserve a spot but overtime things will become more clear and there will only be about 16-18 teams that feel they deserve a spot... right now everyone thinks they should be in...

[skinny_uncle]

New coach, new system. The jury is out on Lennon for sure, but the D is better than the first two games indicate. Northwestern played on half a field all night.
The next two weeks are critical for the Dawgs' chances at extending their playoff streak. A win against UNI or NDSU makes them a contender. Losing both would mean they have to win out the rest of the season just to squeak into the playoffs. Losing half your starters and your coach makes it tough, but I wouldn't write the Salukis off yet. The best thing that could happen for the Dawgs right now would be to get one of their injured running backs (White or Karim) healthy again. Saturday at the Mac should be very interesting.

[89Hen]

UNH secured the first playoff bid already when they beat Army. There is no way they can lose more than 3 games the rest of the way, and probably shouldn't lose even two. No Richmond, no JMU, no UD... for all the people who complain about the CAA not all playing each other, they certainly have a case this year in UNH. I'm not saying UNH isn't a good team, but holy cow did they catch a break this year.

W&M TT? xeyebrowx They already have one loss and the next three are Villanova, UNH and Delaware and they finish with JMU and Richmond. You really think they are going to go 3-2 through that (and not slip up to URI, TU or NU)?

Your CAA favorites have to be Richmond, JMU, UNH and UMass at this point. Villanova or Delaware would be the next two possibilities.

[appfan2008]

UNH secured the first playoff bid already when they beat Army. There is no way they can lose more than 3 games the rest of the way, and probably shouldn't lose even two. No Richmond, no JMU, no UD... for all the people who complain about the CAA not all playing each other, they certainly have a case this year in UNH. I'm not saying UNH isn't a good team, but holy cow did they catch a break this year.

W&M TT? xeyebrowx They already have one loss and the next three are Villanova, UNH and Delaware and they finish with JMU and Richmond. You really think they are going to go 3-2 through that (and not slip up to URI, TU or NU)?

Your CAA favorites have to be Richmond, JMU, UNH and UMass at this point. Villanova or Delaware would be the next two possibilities.

not enough spots to go around for all those teams... i guess we will have to wait and see who beats up on who...

[WrenFGun]

Well, one of UD or UMass is going to have three losses in two weeks, at least. Going to be very tough for both of those teams to win out, considering they both have Nova and JMU left, with UMass also having UNH.

As for UNH, they got a break on the schedule this year, but consider the schedule last year...@ Marshall, @ JMU to open the season, @ Richmond, @ UMass, UD at home. Just so happened that they got it a little easier. They still have to go to Maine and to Nova, and do get W&M and UMass at home, so I don't think we can lock them up yet, but they should be able to get to 8-3 with their start.

I think JMU, UNH, Richmond and Villanova are the four likely to secure playoff berths, if indeed I had to predict.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

UNH secured the first playoff bid already when they beat Army. There is no way they can lose more than 3 games the rest of the way, and probably shouldn't lose even two. No Richmond, no JMU, no UD... for all the people who complain about the CAA not all playing each other, they certainly have a case this year in UNH. I'm not saying UNH isn't a good team, but holy cow did they catch a break this year.

W&M TT? xeyebrowx They already have one loss and the next three are Villanova, UNH and Delaware and they finish with JMU and Richmond. You really think they are going to go 3-2 through that (and not slip up to URI, TU or NU)?

Your CAA favorites have to be Richmond, JMU, UNH and UMass at this point. Villanova or Delaware would be the next two possibilities.

Glad you're so confident about UNH, but I think we should let the season play out. There is no way UNH has locked up a playoff bid yet. Going forward my Wildcats have plenty of opportunity for losses plus the usual upsets and crappy weather that seem to happen annually:

W&M -- hands down, historically the most difficult CAA team for UNH. Only two wins ever over the Tribe.
Northeastern -- at Parsons, Huskies on two game winning streak vs. UNH.
Villanova -- on the Main Line, nothing easy about this game.
UMass -- no need to say anything
Maine -- in Orono, UNH is on a five game winning streak and in this series that is an above average winning streak. Maine will be sky high to return the Musket to Orono.

Hardly a slam dunk for UNH.

BTW, why is this year's cycle of teams easier for UNH than it was for UMass last year? Villanova appears to be as strong or stronger and W&M appears to be improved while Towson appears the same or a bit down from last year. Overall, that looks like the South troika is slightly more difficult than it was for UMass last year.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Well, one of UD or UMass is going to have three losses in two weeks, at least. Going to be very tough for both of those teams to win out, considering they both have Nova and JMU left, with UMass also having UNH.

As for UNH, they got a break on the schedule this year, but consider the schedule last year...@ Marshall, @ JMU to open the season, @ Richmond, @ UMass, UD at home. Just so happened that they got it a little easier. They still have to go to Maine and to Nova, and do get W&M and UMass at home, so I don't think we can lock them up yet, but they should be able to get to 8-3 with their start.

I think JMU, UNH, Richmond and Villanova are the four likely to secure playoff berths, if indeed I had to predict.

UMass doesn't play Nova this year and already played JMU. They have Richmond, Delaware and five North opponents left. Delaware has UMass, Maine, Hofstra and five South opponents (@UR, @JMU, W&M, Towson and Nova) left.

Your point is sound though that one of the teams will have three losses by the evening of October 4th and a difficult schedule down the stretch. By no means is either team out of the playoff running, but they do a challenge ahead of them. Just another example of how teams beat up on each other in conference is what's going to give us our playoff teams. Delaware also has to deal with that D-II win (8-4 will be viewed as 7-4 by the committee).

[Retro]

It's wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early to even consider playoff bids and such, so let me quote former Saints and Colts Coach Jim Mora........

"Playoffs?! Don't talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me? Playoffs?! I'm just hoping we can win a game, another game!" xlolx

[RabidRabbit]

Does anyone have the NCAA rules/criteria on how to handle the Hurricanes lost games, or are those literally as well as actually lost for the criteria of 7 D-I wins. xconfusedx xconfusedx

[89Hen]

BTW, why is this year's cycle of teams easier for UNH than it was for UMass last year? Villanova appears to be as strong or stronger and W&M appears to be improved while Towson appears the same or a bit down from last year. Overall, that looks like the South troika is slightly more difficult than it was for UMass last year.
I think it's because I think both Richmond and JMU are stronger this year than last so missing them this year is huge IMO. xpeacex

[89Hen]

BTW, why is this year's cycle of teams easier for UNH than it was for UMass last year? Villanova appears to be as strong or stronger and W&M appears to be improved while Towson appears the same or a bit down from last year. Overall, that looks like the South troika is slightly more difficult than it was for UMass last year.
I think it's because I think both Richmond and JMU are stronger this year than last so missing them this year is huge IMO. xpeacex

[katstrapper]

way too much football to be played to be guessing playoff brackets.xnonono2x

the TSN poll is a joke this week anyway.