SoCon Week 10

[OL FU]

Since no one else has stepped to the plate, here goes.

Elon – Idle (Oh what a relief it is)

Citadel @ Chattanooga – Both teams have played well and both teams have played poorly. It would be nice if there was a trend but that isn’t the case. Citadel played well against FU and but less so against Wofford. Chattanooga lost to Western and ASU, but played a very good game against the Mountaineers. Mocs take it 27-17.

Wofford @ Western Carolina – I think I could almost cut and paste from above just switching the names of the teams. Western seems to have been on track the last two games and is playing at home. Also, I think Western is a better team than their record shows. They slipped up against the Citadel and were clubbed by GSU. It should be a close one. I still don’t think Wofford is that good. (Since we have not played them yet I hope I am right) WCU 24 – Wofford 14

ASU @ LSU – I can count the number of times I have pulled for ASU this year on half a hand and this is one of them. Money Game. ASU starts fired up and stays with them for a quarter and a half. Money payers 48 Money Receivers 10.

FU @ GSU – OK, put all your homerism aside and most people will make the typical argument of whoever wins turnovers and field position wins. And so would I. Most posters on here will pick GSU for one simple reason. Their house. That’s a good reason. Some will say they are fighting for the playoffs and that is another good reason. I have a little different take. This is a strange year in I-AA and what would be stranger than no GSU Eagles in the playoffs. GSU has played a lot of close games and lost most of them. Furman has played a lot of close games and won most of them. GSU has won big more times than Furman. But GSU hasn’t beaten a ranked team. This game will be high scoring (surely with that prediction the score will be 6-3). I haven’t seen a lot of reasons to think either team will stop the other one, but I do think Furman will stop GSU more than vice versa (unless Furman stops itself). Furman 35 GSU 28.

You guys have fun. It is time to take the little ones out for some Halloween fun.

[ASU Kep]

ASU Kep's key to the game: Furman's D is not as fast as ASU's. GSU will run the option(duh) but they will run it very successfully with all that home mojo going. I remember the drive down to Statesboro last year coming off of our win over the purple's thinking we might walk away with the conference. I wasn't thinking the same on the return trip, and neither will Furman. GSU earns a spot in the playoffs. GATA Eagles!!! you know, until the playoffs...

[Baldy]

This is a strange year in I-AA and what would be stranger than no GSU Eagles in the playoffs. GSU has played a lot of close games and lost most of them. Furman has played a lot of close games and won most of them.

I agree, somewhat.
Here's the BIG difference. Furman's main problem all season is that it has had some severe struggles on the road against "inferior" opponents.
Your opponent won't be inferior this week. Furman will be facing one hungry fired-up group of kids supported by 20K+ in the stands celebrating the 20 year anniversary of our first championship. The atmosphere will be electric, and my bold prediction only says that Furman's road struggles continue, and will not be able to keep up with the high powered GSU offense.

Never underestimate the power of the opponents crowd.

[ASU Kep]

Haha, forgot the official "predictions".

GSU - 49
Furman - 31
(see above ---^)

LSU - 48
ASU - 17
(LSU does not take us seriously. We will hang with em for a while, but the depth, size, and speed will wear us down. Believe me, I'll be listening to every down and believe with a lotta luck and great play we could make this close into the fourth and perhaps win the damn thing, however, gotta go with my brain in this prediction, not my heart...but if it IS close, don't say I didn't warn you).

UTC - 35
CIT - 17
(UTC impressed the hell outta me in Boone this past weekend. Granted, we didn't play too well, but UTC had a fire under their a$$. With all the stuff that obviously is going on with them, it seems like the team is handling it in the right way. Citadel always puts up a valiant effort, but UTC shows glimpses of a potentially bright future in a big win).

WCU - 17
Wofford - 14
(WCU's offense puts out just enough for the win. I'd rather it be a WCU blowout, but...it's Western...).

[youwouldno]

You are totally delusional if you think GSU is going to win by 18. OK, maybe just not very smart.

Furman has a better offense; GSU is at home; neither team is great defensively. Thus I expect a close game.

But the Paladins are 4-11 or whatever against GSU not because it's impossible to play in Paulson or anything like that. Furman has often lost to GSU because GSU was the better team.

This time, Furman is the better team. Either team can win, but I'll take the Paladins because of a balanced offense capable of moving the ball quickly if need be.

[Saint3333]

GSU - 42
Furman - 38

On a neutral field I'd say Furman, but this ain't a neutral field it's one of the 5 toughest places to play in the nation.

LSU - a lot
ASU - $400K

If ASU (or any 1-AA team) keeps it within 28 points against a BCS bowl caliber team I would be amazed.

UTC - 35
CIT - 17

UTC is the most improved team in the SoCon (other than ASU) and will be a force by next year, they're already showing signs this year.

WCU - 10
Wofford - 14

WCU is looking ahead to their bowl game and makes mental mistakes, something Wofford teams tend to take advantage of.

[eagleskins]

You are totally delusional if you think GSU is going to win by 18. OK, maybe just not very smart.

Furman has a better offense; GSU is at home; neither team is great defensively. Thus I expect a close game.

But the Paladins are 4-11 or whatever against GSU not because it's impossible to play in Paulson or anything like that. Furman has often lost to GSU because GSU was the better team.

This time, Furman is the better team. Either team can win, but I'll take the Paladins because of a balanced offense capable of moving the ball quickly if need be.

Furman's offense is not better. Martin, aka Mr. INT, will give GSU the ball a couple times. Foster has a monster day on Furman's pourous defense. The rout is on in the 3rd. 49-28.

[LarryBoy]

The times our offense has been strongest have been the times when Martin wasn't the go-to guy in the game plan. I expect we'll hear the names Gipson, Felton, and Carter a lot on Saturday. I'm not saying that they'll eat up a ton of yardage (I'm thinking maybe 250 rushing overall), but I would surprised if that's not our gameplan. You have incredible defensive backs, and we want to keep your offense off the field. Therefore, believe it or not, this game could come down to time of possession.

I guess my overall point is that, for those of you expecting Martin to give you the ball a lot, don't count on it. I say he throws 20 passes max, working primarily out of play action or option pass. And when that's the case, he normally completes 13-14 of them for 200+ yards and no or 1 INT. He gets in trouble when the running game is gone, and he throws 40+ passes. Not going to happen. Our ground game will have to get it done, and I'm pretty confident they can.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

GSU: 31
Furman: 20
We have two different teams. One is 1-3, and the other is 5-0. If the 5-0 team shows up Saturday, Furman will be handled. With a playoff spot on the line, and the team still fuming mad about last season's game, the Eagles will be ready and you can bet the stadium will be packed and shaking. Also, I hope the players will also play extra hard to ensure they don't lose in front of the '85 national championship team.

Should be another classic game in one of the biggest rivalries in IAA.

LSU: 38
Appalachian State: 20
Come on, Mountaineers. Your pessimism disappoints me. If you play like I know you can, LSU won;t beat you by more than 30. Look for them to get overconfident. By the way, I'll hold you guys to those 5-10 dollars that you say you will send to us if we beat Furman. If 10-20 thousand of you do that, that'd be swell.

Citadel: 28
UTC: 21
Citadel is the better team IMO

WCU: 31
Wofford: 7

[fuEMO]

ASU Kep's key to the game: Furman's D is not as fast as ASU's. GSU will run the option(duh) but they will run it very successfully with all that home mojo going. I remember the drive down to Statesboro last year coming off of our win over the purple's thinking we might walk away with the conference. I wasn't thinking the same on the return trip, and neither will Furman. GSU earns a spot in the playoffs. GATA Eagles!!! you know, until the playoffs...


Typical ASU responce. Furman is faster on D than APP sideline to sideline. Freeman, Jones, Nelson were recruited to play against a slot formation offense. They are also more physical than APPs. I give APP the speed advantage on the defensive ends but not the heart. Ravenell will come up big in this game. Freeman will wreck havoc on the Egglets slotbacks. Jones and Austin will come head-to-head and Jones will bring it. I would also take Thacker and Riley any day over Lynch and trashmouth talking Touchstone against the Eagles. All we heard last year was how GSU would come into Paladin Stadium and take the Paladins to the woodshed. Didn't happen.

And I wouldn't be so cocky about a defense that allows a SDSU tailback to gain over 200 yards. You'll be facing a deep, diverse group of runningbacks that the mighty APP defense couldn't stop.

I see a heavy dose of Felton, Carter, Gipson and Mays. But I would also expect Rust to be a matchup problem for the Eagles.

[EagleCrusade]

GSU - 42
Furman - 38

On a neutral field I'd say Furman, but this ain't a neutral field it's one of the 5 toughest places to play in the nation.

LSU - a lot
ASU - $400K

If ASU (or any 1-AA team) keeps it within 28 points against a BCS bowl caliber team I would be amazed.


As far as GSU/FU I agree 100%. IF it was in Greenville....wow..total suckfest.

As far as your I-AA not hanging with BCS teams crap....think way back to last time UGA played GS....are you amazed?

[catamount man]

WCU-11
WOFFORD-10

FURMAN-31
GA.SOUTHERN-28

APP STATE-7
LSU-56

CITADEL-17
UTC-27

ELON (IDLE)

GO CATAMOUNTS!!!

[youwouldno]

Furman's offense is not better. Martin, aka Mr. INT, will give GSU the ball a couple times. Foster has a monster day on Furman's pourous defense. The rout is on in the 3rd. 49-28.

LoL

You are NOT going to like what happens Saturday...

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

LoL

You are NOT going to like what happens Saturday...

Ugh!! Don't tell me you have spoken with our coaching staff, and they told you the game plan is to go up the middle with Jermaine on first and second down and to roll a die to decide between a QB sneak, fullback toss, and option right on third down!!

[youwouldno]

Naw, no such things needed. Just had to look at what SDSU did to you on the ground, then consider we have a better O-line and better backs (including QB). Combination may be unpleasant for GSU fans.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Naw, no such things needed. Just had to look at what SDSU did to you on the ground, then consider we have a better O-line and better backs (including QB). Combination may be unpleasant for GSU fans.

Except for the obvious defensive debacle against South Dakota State (which is an underrated team anyways), our defense is very much so comparable to FU's.

Here are scoring comparisons (Points GSU gave up to the team /points FU gave up to the team.)

Appalachian State (24, 31)
Western Carolina (7, 41)
The Citadel (14, 31)
Elon (7, 6)

Of course, GSU did give up 38 to Northeastern, but I don't think that's as bad as giving up 31 to Gardner Webb.

Anyways, the problems we have on D are minor glitches that can be fixed easily. We have no problem penetrating the line but we do have some sloppy tackling. This can be remedied with just focusing, and I think our team will be as focused as they have been all season. The biggest question mark is if the coaching staff is going to run the offense or if they are going to get all timid and run 30 fullback dives.

Should be a good game, don't get too overconfident. Be sure to bring a lot of people so we can get one of our highest attendance numbers ever.

[fuEMO]

Except for the obvious defensive debacle against South Dakota State (which is an underrated team anyways), our defense is very much so comparable to FU's.

Here are scoring comparisons (Points GSU gave up to the team /points FU gave up to the team.)

Appalachian State (24, 31)
Western Carolina (7, 41)
The Citadel (14, 31)
Elon (7, 6)

Of course, GSU did give up 38 to Northeastern, but I don't think that's as bad as giving up 31 to Gardner Webb.

Anyways, the problems we have on D are minor glitches that can be fixed easily. We have no problem penetrating the line but we do have some sloppy tackling. This can be remedied with just focusing, and I think our team will be as focused as they have been all season. The biggest question mark is if the coaching staff is going to run the offense or if they are going to get all timid and run 30 fullback dives.

Should be a good game, don't get too overconfident. Be sure to bring a lot of people so we can get one of our highest attendance numbers ever.


Comparing penis size, I mean scores again. When has that ever been a predictor in this series. GSU has been suspect against the pass McNeese, Northeastern, APP. Now they will face the most veteran, physical offensive line of the season. And what got you guys in this must win situation getting beat by Wofford.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Comparing penis size, I mean scores again. When has that ever been a predictor in this series. GSU has been suspect against the pass McNeese, Northeastern, APP. Now they will face the most veteran, physical offensive line of the season. And what got you guys in this must win situation getting beat by Wofford.

Well youwouldno brought up our numbers versus South Dakota State, just showing that I could talk numbers too. Something else for you to ponder: how well do you think you can match up against our O? We've got veteran receivers, Payton Award Candidate Jermaine Austin, and greased lightning Jayson Foster at quarterback. Our slotbacks can do some serious damage too. I sure hope your team is as confident as you are.

[youwouldno]

Considering our weakness is against the pass, and GSU doesn't do that well or often... no, I'm not frightened of GSU's offense. GSU will score points, sure, but so will the Paladins.

[straightshooter]

GSU doesn't pass often becasue they don't need to. When you're getting drives that take less than five plays on the ground, you don't throw it often. Foster, however, is throwing it pretty well for a non-throwing team. He's completing 53% of his passes for the year, and is 10-14, 250+ yards the last two games. His QB pass efficiency rating for the year is more than 173. GSU calls more passes that that, but Foster sometimes sees an opening or gets flushed from the pocket. That's when teams have to try to deal with his 4.3 speed, which usually results in some pretty good yardage on the ground.

My guess is that GSU will throw 10 to 15 times against Furman, especially if they put 8 in the box to stop the run.

[LarryBoy]

The only thing I've learned on these boards about this game is that both Furman and GSU have a billion things working for and against them. Looking at any stats or roster sheets aren't going to help a bit in picking a winner for this game. And, other than Furman's near-sucky years in the 90s, when have stats been able to predict this game? Or rankings for that matter? Take 2000 for example, with Furman's thrashing of #1 Southern. So, with Furman being #1 this week, a reverse of that isn't an impossibility.

This time Saturday night, one group of smack talkers will feel like idiots, and the other group will be geniuses. I don't want to say "don't waste your time" (what's the point of this board, otherwise), it's just funny to read these "expert" opinions.

I'm hoping Furman wins; they've got a really good shot. But I'm not foolish enough to think that GSU is some kind of pushover. Unless it is won by 40+ points, there isn't an outcome that will surprise me.

There's my 2 cents of wishy-washy non-smack. Feel free to continue.

[Baldy]

Naw, no such things needed. Just had to look at what SDSU did to you on the ground, then consider we have a better O-line and better backs (including QB). Combination may be unpleasant for GSU fans.

Just had to look at what WCU and el Cid did to you on the scoreboard, then consider we have a better O-line and better backs (including QB)....... Yada Yada Yada :rolleyes:

Yeah SDSU put up some points and we gave up some yards...after we were up by 3 TD's and against the second team defense. To their credit they didn't give up. Our intensity dropped off and we became a little lax. Two things I won't have to worry happening on Saturday.

[youwouldno]

Well, the Citadel got 286 yards against us including OT. If you think you can score 31 points on 286 yards, well, good luck to you. It was a fluke. WCU got their points on turnovers... if we turn it over 6 times, yes, GSU will win.

But LAST WEEK GSU got run over like roadkill. It would be pretty impressive if GSU went from giving up a million yards to SDSU to then stopping a much better offense. I guess it's possible but it's hardly likely.

If GSU held the Paladins under 40, I would be surprised. If GSU can't stop the run, they can't stop Martin. I see no reason to believe they can stop the run. The result is a lot of Paladin points.

Maybe GSU can win a shootout. I just doubt it will actually happen.

[Baldy]

Well, the Citadel got 286 yards against us including OT. If you think you can score 31 points on 286 yards, well, good luck to you. It was a fluke. WCU got their points on turnovers... if we turn it over 6 times, yes, GSU will win.

But LAST WEEK GSU got run over like roadkill. It would be pretty impressive if GSU went from giving up a million yards to SDSU to then stopping a much better offense. I guess it's possible but it's hardly likely.

If GSU held the Paladins under 40, I would be surprised. If GSU can't stop the run, they can't stop Martin. I see no reason to believe they can stop the run. The result is a lot of Paladin points.

Maybe GSU can win a shootout. I just doubt it will actually happen.

We have our SDSU, you have your Gardner-Webb. :cool:

Well, The Cit got a whopping 256 yards against us, but we took care of business and didn't have to go to overtime. The same goes for WCU, they gained only 239 yards of offense against us compared to your team giving up 363.

Please keep putting a 'trap' game 1500 miles away from Statesboro against a team who repeatedly called this game the biggest home game in it's football history on the same level as the game this Saturday. You will be in for a big suprise.

Furman might win, but seeing how your team has performed on the road this season (against inferior competition at that) and then add the 20K+ raucious fans in a less than inviting atmosphere, there's a good chance your team could be in for a very long day.

[Appalachian]

GO EAGLES!!!!!!! Furman will have the Statesboro Blues on Saturday.

GSU 38
Purple Vermin 17

[AppGuy04]

GO EAGLES!!!!!!! Furman will have the Statesboro Blues on Saturday.

GSU 38
Purple Vermin 17

naw, it'll be much closer, neither team would give us that satisfaction

but yes, ever App fan will be wearing blue, not furple on saturday

[ButlerGSU]

I have said it a thousand times on here before, don't be overconfident. This Saturday's game will be a total war on both sides. Furman has the better team, no doubt about that. We are young and it shows at times. However, word on www.tscsports.com is that Paulson will be completely packed out which gives our team a huge advantage. I expect this will be a close game for a full 60 minutes...

GSU 45
FU 38

*No other SoCon scores matter, so I didn't post any.

[EagleCrusade]

You fail to consider the effect of the crowd at the game.

SDSU is a long way away. Friday, the travel up north was severley delayed.

Pauslon Stadium. Home. No travel. 16,712 GS students talking it up all week. The atmosphere in town is electric. The stadium will be filled, hostile and LOUD.

Furman will bring its band this year, they might break their all-time travel record with 18 fans including the band. GS brought nearly 4,500 last season to Paladinland. FU might bring 200. Maybe 250 since its a big game. The crowd will play a factor.

[AppGuy04]

You fail to consider the effect of the crowd at the game.

SDSU is a long way away. Friday, the travel up north was severley delayed.

Pauslon Stadium. Home. No travel. 16,712 GS students talking it up all week. The atmosphere in town is electric. The stadium will be filled, hostile and LOUD.

Furman will bring its band this year, they might break their all-time travel record with 18 fans including the band. GS brought nearly 4,500 last season to Paladinland. FU might bring 200. Maybe 250 since its a big game. The crowd will play a factor.

i've never been to Paulson, does it have the ability to hold more than the listed capacity?

[Black and Gold Express]

Furman 17
GSU 28

In the battle of "who needs this more", I'm taking the Eagles in their yard, though it's hardly a confident pick. Both teams make you scratch your head at times. A healthy Jayson Foster will be the difference maker in this one, and the Curse of #1 continues.

ASU 21
LSU 63

Yes, I do hope the Apps prove me wrong, but I've said from Day One that the score of this game is totally irrelevant to me. Just come home healthy, and let the backups in for good once we're down by three scores. Take the paycheck, and prepare for the final two games of the season that really matter.

CIT 10
UTC 28

Chattanooga is definitely the "best of the rest" in the SoCon. Citadel will struggle on the road in front of tens and tens of fans at Finley Stadium.

WOF 12
WCU 17

Wofford ain't good this year, and Western plays enough defense still to quiet them. The X-Factor is the Western offense. They could score 35, or they could just as easily get shut out. I'll split the difference here and give them the win.

[OL FU]

I totally agree with all the posters that said Paulson (crowd) will be a factor. There is no doubt that Paulson is a very tough place to play. I can't say I would be comfortable if the game was in Greenville, but I would be more comfortable than I have been in a long time before a GSU - FU game. With that said, I think Paulson and the Crowd are the main reasons why the game is close. But FU wins. :D

[OL FU]

Furman 17
GSU 28

In the battle of "who needs this more", I'm taking the Eagles in their yard, though it's hardly a confident pick. Both teams make you scratch your head at times. A healthy Jayson Foster will be the difference maker in this one, and the Curse of #1 continues.

B and G, I am interested in hearing why you think the score will be much lowere than most people are predicting (not that 28 points is that low)?

[straightshooter]

Yea, the largest crowd at Paulson Stadium was 25,725 for the 1989 Championship game won by the Eagles to finish Russell's career and a 15-0 season.

The actual hard seating is 18,000, but the grass slopes greatly expand capacity if needed. Forecase calls for Pty Cloudy and 81 degrees on Saturday, so the slopes will be full.

[AppGuy04]

this game on TV?

[ButlerGSU]

Yes, FSN at 4 p.m.

[Black and Gold Express]

B and G, I am interested in hearing why you think the score will be much lowere than most people are predicting (not that 28 points is that low)?

Two reasons. First off, these "big games" in the SoCon have generally trended to go under on the total points. Not always (ASU/Furman was an example where it didn't), but usually it's the safe play.

Secondly, and more important, ya'll just won't have enough time to score much more. GSU will eat clock on the ground, and I am thinking that Coach Lamb will do what he should have done against ASU, and go run game all four quarters. Tick, tick, tick goes the clock, and I'm just not seeing that high of a score.

You could easily reverse the final score, but if the total points goes above 60 I would be very surprised. Edit: barring turnovers, that is.

[AppGuy04]

Sweet!

[OL FU]

Two reasons. First off, these "big games" in the SoCon have generally trended to go under on the total points. Not always (ASU/Furman was an example where it didn't), but usually it's the safe play.

Secondly, and more important, ya'll just won't have enough time to score much more. GSU will eat clock on the ground, and I am thinking that Coach Lamb will do what he should have done against ASU, and go run game all four quarters. Tick, tick, tick goes the clock, and I'm just not seeing that high of a score.

You could easily reverse the final score, but if the total points goes above 60 I would be very surprised. Edit: barring turnovers, that is.

Thanks, good thoughts. On the other hand, I would not mind seeing them eat some clock. That means GSU is picking up 3 and 4 yards instead 15 or 20. I don't think I would mnd that scenario.

[AppGuy04]

Thanks, good thoughts. On the other hand, I would not mind seeing them eat some clock. That means GSU is picking up 3 and 4 yards instead 15 or 20. I don't think I would mnd that scenario.

Neither defense has shown they can really stop anyone, so I would tend to see more of a high scoring game

[OL FU]

Neither defense has shown they can really stop anyone, so I would tend to see more of a high scoring game

I will stick with that prediction as well.

[AppGuy04]

I will stick with that prediction as well.

GSU will be pumped up, and at home they tend to score more. Having said that, Furman has the knack for matching other teams scoring, see ASU game

[Black and Gold Express]

Neither defense has shown they can really stop anyone, so I would tend to see more of a high scoring game

If I had time (what, they expect me to work during the day or something?) I'd run an analysis to see just how much over a team's average opponents score on Furman and GSU. I believe it's something of a myth that teams score in droves against them regularly compared to what they do otherwise. It's just that we are used to seeing both teams being among the elite defenses in the nation usually. This year, they are more average.

[OL FU]

GSU will be pumped up, and at home they tend to score more. Having said that, Furman has the knack for matching other teams scoring, see ASU game

:p :p :p

Furman has a knack for playing to the level of the competition facing them.
I think you could phrase that a lttle better :D

I have watched Furman on many occasions, in prior years, out play, over play, whatever against teams that were obviously better than them. That is not what I saw in the App game.

[SoCon48]

naw, it'll be much closer, neither team would give us that satisfaction

but yes, ever App fan will be wearing blue, not furple on saturday

But after it's over, I'm burning my damn blue duds.

[SoCon48]

Furman 17
GSU 28

In the battle of "who needs this more", I'm taking the Eagles in their yard, though it's hardly a confident pick. Both teams make you scratch your head at times. A healthy Jayson Foster will be the difference maker in this one, and the Curse of #1 continues.

ASU 21
LSU 63

Yes, I do hope the Apps prove me wrong, but I've said from Day One that the score of this game is totally irrelevant to me. Just come home healthy, and let the backups in for good once we're down by three scores. Take the paycheck, and prepare for the final two games of the season that really matter.

CIT 10
UTC 28

Chattanooga is definitely the "best of the rest" in the SoCon. Citadel will struggle on the road in front of tens and tens of fans at Finley Stadium.

WOF 12
WCU 17

Wofford ain't good this year, and Western plays enough defense still to quiet them. The X-Factor is the Western offense. They could score 35, or they could just as easily get shut out. I'll split the difference here and give them the win.

That ASU-LSU prediction would still be better than North Texas' performance loast Saturday. And anyone who scores 3 TD's on the Tigers has done a day's work.

[LarryBoy]

The defenses show up and go insane. Both teams are held to negative yards on offense. Ingle Martin gets player of the game...as the punter.

Furman 4, GSU 2.

[FU97]

As far as GSU/FU I agree 100%. IF it was in Greenville....wow..total suckfest.

As far as your I-AA not hanging with BCS teams crap....think way back to last time UGA played GS....are you amazed?

Heck Furman went to OT vs a team that played in the Fiesta Bowl last year.

[LarryBoy]

The fact that Pittsburgh went to the Fiesta Bowl shows just how much of a joke the BCS and Bowl system are.

Pittsburgh's talent didn't win that game. Depth and the cheap shots that took Mike Killian and others out of the game saved them.

[OL FU]

If I had time (what, they expect me to work during the day or something?) I'd run an analysis to see just how much over a team's average opponents score on Furman and GSU. I believe it's something of a myth that teams score in droves against them regularly compared to what they do otherwise. It's just that we are used to seeing both teams being among the elite defenses in the nation usually. This year, they are more average.

B&G, I took you up on your analysis. Here it is (A footnote – I only used I-AA games and the end of regulation scoring)

Furman
Team/avg/vs FU
JSU 29 35
WCU 25 41
SU 23 23
HU 28 35
GW 28 31
ASU 34 31
Elon 14 6
Cit 17 21
Comb 25 28


Looks like your guess was accurate with FU. The one anomaly is WCU but I guess 7 turnovers could explain that one. From a scoring standpoint, it looks like FU has been consistently mediocre. And while, I have not made this adjustment and I am not sure I should, my guess is if you took out scores where the offense became the defense after a turnover the average score and the score against Furman would even out significantly.

Georgia Southern
Team/Acvg/Vs GSU
NE 24 38
McN 29 23
WC 21 21
Chatt 19 10
Elon 14 7
WCU 24 7
ASU 34 24
Cit 17 14
SDSU 17 42
Comb 22 21


With GSU, it is quite different. Except for the first and last game, GSU has held their opponent to fewer points than their average. But the combined total works out where the numbers are fairly even. I don’t know enough about turnovers to make the same comparison as I did with Furman. I guess the other comment might be that in many cases, GSU blew the opponent out and therefore kept them off the field that may have lowered the score.

Furman and Georgia Southern average 38 and 36, respectively.

Looks like it should be a heck of a game.

[Black and Gold Express]

Great work OL FU!

I know enough of Furman that they tend to struggle a wee bit more with passing teams this year. Trying to find what the weak point for GSU is. I have no idea on what kind of offenses SDSU and UNH run (help?) but ASU primarily hammered GSU with the ground game, mainly a shotgun read option (or zone option) play run over and over. They passed enough to keep them honest, but it was the running attack that did them in.

From what i could tell, I thought GSU's passing defense was pretty good. That kid Mohring at LB is the best player they got on the defensive side of the ball. Which leads me back to thinking Furman would be better off handing it off to the tailbacks up the gut, and chewing that clock, which would lead to a lower scoring game.

[soweagle]

B&G you are right on the money about the GSU defense. Stopping the run has been our problem the last few weeks. SDSU mixed it up pretty good, especially in the 4th quarter, but the running game is what hurt the most. Our front four have trouble and I expect Felton and crew to have a good game. If GSU can force Furman to throw I think we will win. What scares me the most is how Furman can seem to come from behind and win games late. I think the crowd will be a factor early in the game and give GSU the edge but as most games the crowd will not be too much of a factor in the second half and that is when I am afraid Furman will make their run.

[OL FU]

B&G you are right on the money about the GSU defense. Stopping the run has been our problem the last few weeks. SDSU mixed it up pretty good, especially in the 4th quarter, but the running game is what hurt the most. Our front four have trouble and I expect Felton and crew to have a good game. If GSU can force Furman to throw I think we will win. What scares me the most is how Furman can seem to come from behind and win games late. I think the crowd will be a factor early in the game and give GSU the edge but as most games the crowd will not be too much of a factor in the second half and that is when I am afraid Furman will make their run.

I think I should forward this thread over to Lamb. just kidding obviously.

The below is going to sound a little strange because we can obviously pass. I don't think anybody doubts that. But we certainly win on the ground. Fourth quarter we are up 8 or 9 points on APP when they start their comeback and all of a sudden we pass on first down and second down. Realizing you have to mix it up, we stalled out on those two or three consecutive possesions. That helped put us behind very quickly. All that to say, we need to stick with our run first plan unless things start to go awry.

[FU97]

Great work OL FU!

I know enough of Furman that they tend to struggle a wee bit more with passing teams this year. Trying to find what the weak point for GSU is. I have no idea on what kind of offenses SDSU and UNH run (help?) but ASU primarily hammered GSU with the ground game, mainly a shotgun read option (or zone option) play run over and over. They passed enough to keep them honest, but it was the running attack that did them in.

From what i could tell, I thought GSU's passing defense was pretty good. That kid Mohring at LB is the best player they got on the defensive side of the ball. Which leads me back to thinking Furman would be better off handing it off to the tailbacks up the gut, and chewing that clock, which would lead to a lower scoring game.

I think our offense matches up favorably vs GSU. We have a strong running game but can definitely beat you with the pass. We don't have the deep threats that we had last year, but our WRs can do ok. Martin really likes to hit our TE Rust. I expect to see us pound Felton quite a bit as well as really run through our triumverate at RB. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 80-20 run/pass split (assuming the game is close).

On defense, I'm most worried about the interior of the DL and our MLB and how they handle the FB belly option. They are all young, new starters for us. On the outside, I think we'll be fine as Freeman and Nelson have both played vs GSU (Nelson as a FR last year). Our safeties and one of the corners has sigfnificant experience vs the option as well. I expect that we have used our off week to prepare for the option attack extensively. While he's not as fast as Foster, our backup QB runs a very good option as well.

While I think Furman has the better team, this is definitely a game that GSU can win.

[atlGAmocs]

Wofford @ WCU - I have seen both of these teams and I still can't figure them out. I am going to give this one to WCU. 24 - 14.

Citadel @ Chattanooga - I did not think that UTC had a chance to win in Kidd Brewer Stadium. Yet I sat there in Boone and watched my Mocs put up a valiant effort dispite the distractions. I can't believe that they will come home to Chattanooga and put up another effort like the game vs WCU. UTC 35 - Citadel 10.

Furman @ GSU - Game of the week. I haven't seen Furman play this year but based on their ability to win even if sometimes ugly, I think they go down to Statesboro and beat GSU. GSU is still a good team, just not what everyone is used to. Furman 31 - GSU 17.