Can ASU make the playoffs with 4 losses?

[theasushow]

ok, so jmu put us at 1-2 record wise tonight, and with the always competitive socon looming, would a 8-4 season get us in??? will asu be penalized or rewarded for a 12 game schedule?

[93henfan]

I believe ASU would get in at 8-4. (EDIT: So long as the two other losses are to either FU, GSU, Woff, Elon, or TheCit)

[IndianaAppMan]

I wouldn't count on it. ASU won't get special privileges, especially if there are a bunch of 9-3 teams out there

[93henfan]

I wouldn't count on it. ASU won't get special privileges, especially if there are a bunch of 9-3 teams out there

With one of the losses being at LSU, and the fact that you are the back2back2back champions, and the fact that you'd put 30K butts in the seats...

C'mon 8-4 gets you in. Now that I really think about it, hell yes you're in at 8-4, so long as the losses are to other good SoCon teams.

[mrklean]

NO NO NO!!! GSU did not get in and we had 4 losses.

[93henfan]

NO NO NO!!! GSU did not get in and we had 4 losses.

I'm telling you, you don't make a potential 4peat sit and watch if they have any chance at all of making it.

[fencer24]

They may get in, but it will be Road Trip the entire way.

[Appguy]

yea, as long as those 2 arent to western, presby, chatty, or god forbid Samford I think so, it really depends if/how many there are other 9-3 teams

[theasushow]

true gsu didnt get in, but that was before the 12 game schedule started. for some reason 8-4 looks better than 7-4 (i.e. new hampshire last year)

[KiddBrewer]

why is everybody easily forgetting the auto-bid aspect of this whole thing?

[BeauFoster]

Darn, the wagon sure empties quick, doesn't it?

[theasushow]

why is everybody easily forgetting the auto-bid aspect of this whole thing?

good point...hopefully it will be an autobid, for asu their schedule is certainly favorable.

[KiddBrewer]

Darn, the wagon sure empties quick, doesn't it?

well bud, if its just me and you......make room cause i bet it fills up again pretty quick.

[LehighFan11]

All app needs to do is finish the season above .500 and they r in the playoffs....seriously

[Appguy]

expect the best.. plan for the worst!

[UNHWildCats]

it'll depend on how everything else plays out. But sure they could.

[93henfan]

All app needs to do is finish the season above .500 and they r in the playoffs....seriously

So you're saying App St would be in the playoffs at 7-5? That's a tough case to make.

[KiddBrewer]

im willing to take a road trip for the final game.

[whoanellie]

conference play tell all hard to speculate
but CAA has wins over our top teams

[UNIFanSince1983]

Do you even really need to worry about losing 4 games?

[LehighFan11]

So you're saying App St would be in the playoffs at 7-5? That's a tough case to make.

ESPN's phone call would get them in. App St is all the FCS has.

[PantherRob82]

I'm ok with Appy sitting home. ;)

[PaladinFan]

I think so. I think an 8-4 Furman team, playing 9 out of 12 games this season against ranked opponents, should be in.

However, we are 3-1 and I feel better about saying that.

[FUwolfpacker]

Do you even really need to worry about losing 4 games?

It's possible. The SoCon seems to be as tough as it has been in...I don't know how long. They did lose 2 conference games last year too.

I would think an 8-4 ASU team gets in though for all the reason 93henfan mentioned earlier (attendence, 3 straight NC's, etc).

[putter]

It would be hard to leave them our at 8-4 unless there are just a host of quality 10-2 or 9-3 teams that would make it impossible to take App. I just can't see that happening

[theasushow]

It's possible. The SoCon seems to be as tough as it has been in...I don't know how long. They did lose 2 conference games last year too.

I would think an 8-4 ASU team gets in though for all the reason 93henfan mentioned earlier (attendence, 3 straight NC's, etc).

that asu-furman game is getting bigger by the week. the winner of that may have the edge when it comes to the playoffs.

[TheValleyRaider]

It will really all depend on how the rest of the country plays out, where those losses come, and when they happen

If ASU is 8-4, they'll be on the at-large list (unless their 2 conference losses are the right 2 for the SoCon autobid with a 6-2 record). Being from the SoCon (a demonstrably tough conference) will help their overall profile

If there are a number of 9 win teams out there, or even 8-3 teams, or 8-4 teams that beat their FBS opponent (say, Cal Poly or UNH), they could very easily get ahead of the Mountaineers

Another scenario sees ASU's 2 losses coming to, say, WCU and Samford. Those would be bad losses (barring those 2 being in the SoCon title race). Or, the scenario sees ASU run their record to 8-2, then dropping their last 2 regular season games. The Committee doesn't really like teams that finish slow, or stumble at the end, and that could very well predispose them against ASU in some tiebreaker situations

If they're in, though, all bets on location are off. Or rather, ASU gets the same chance at a home game that everyone else does, which includes the large bid they are likely to put in for games. So short of ASU's first round matchup being a seeded opponent, Boone would likely see a playoff game again.

The short answer is, as always, it depends xtwocentsx

[WUTNDITWAA]

ok, so jmu put us at 1-2 record wise tonight, and with the always competitive socon looming, would a 8-4 season get us in??? will asu be penalized or rewarded for a 12 game schedule?

Gotta lose two more games to worry about that.xreadx

[theasushow]

It will really all depend on how the rest of the country plays out, where those losses come, and when they happen

If ASU is 8-4, they'll be on the at-large list (unless their 2 conference losses are the right 2 for the SoCon autobid with a 6-2 record). Being from the SoCon (a demonstrably tough conference) will help their overall profile

If there are a number of 9 win teams out there, or even 8-3 teams, or 8-4 teams that beat their FBS opponent (say, Cal Poly or UNH), they could very easily get ahead of the Mountaineers

Another scenario sees ASU's 2 losses coming to, say, WCU and Samford. Those would be bad losses (barring those 2 being in the SoCon title race). Or, the scenario sees ASU run their record to 8-2, then dropping their last 2 regular season games. The Committee doesn't really like teams that finish slow, or stumble at the end, and that could very well predispose them against ASU in some tiebreaker situations

If they're in, though, all bets on location are off. Or rather, ASU gets the same chance at a home game that everyone else does, which includes the large bid they are likely to put in for games. So short of ASU's first round matchup being a seeded opponent, Boone would likely see a playoff game again.

The short answer is, as always, it depends xtwocentsx

excellent analogy. fair, accurate, and non partisan.

[gophoenix]

So you're saying App St would be in the playoffs at 7-5? That's a tough case to make.

I don't think so. The NCAA has demonstrated time and again that tradition and attendance will give any team help to get in the playoffs.

Money talks, and that's the NCAA's language.

[GreatAppSt]

ok, so jmu put us at 1-2 record wise tonight, and with the always competitive socon looming, would a 8-4 season get us in??? will asu be penalized or rewarded for a 12 game schedule?

Hell yes we can!xmadx You are free to jump off the wagon anytimexrolleyesx .

[GreatAppSt]

I'm ok with Appy sitting home. ;)


I bet you are.:p

[theasushow]

personally i think 8-4 would land us a nice playoff road game in....(take your pick) richmond or harrisonburg.

[TheValleyRaider]

excellent analogy. fair, accurate, and non partisan.

Thanks :)

I was thinking, comparing this to a thread on here last year about Drake after they beat Illinois State in Week 1. We talked about at what point would they be considered for the postseason. Certainly it was all speculative, but there were also only a handful of scenarios in place that would have put them in (their season was basically reduced to 2 or 3 games that would make or break it, everything just needed to be a W)

It's a very different situation with ASU. In someways it feels that way because too many of their remaining games are uncertainties. They are uncertain not so much in their outcomes (very few games are truly certain and even those of course are not), but in the meaning of those outcomes. What I mean is, you can't really know what many of those wins and losses will mean until you can view them in the totality of the season, rather than the isolated context of that individual Saturday (or even simply as a W or L in the standings column)

I for one firmly believe that "you are what your record says you are", but am also willing to concede that some wins (and losses) mean more than others

[FCS Go!]

Did I miss something here? App loses on the road, by 3 points, to a solid, top-5 team. They have one more tough road game and have Citadel, Furman, Elon & Wofford at home.

App doesn't lose two more games. xnodx

[Syntax Error]

NO NO NO!!! GSU did not get in and we had 4 losses.and not 7 D-I wins

[theasushow]

i understand what u mean...like right now wins against gsu, wofford, and furman should result in a guarantee playoff birth...but not if those programs underachieve.

[theasushow]

while it is AWESOME playing in KBS, those games against citadel, furman, wofford and elon are far from guarantees.

[matfu]

Did I miss something here? App loses on the road, by 3 points, to a solid, top-5 team. They have one more tough road game and have Citadel, Furman, Elon & Wofford at home.

App doesn't lose two more games. xnodx


I certainly don't see app state losing two more games. I think wofford will be their biggest threat. schedule is certainly favorable for them.

[walliver]

An 8-4 ASU team would almost certainly get an at-large bid.

The NCAA would really like to invite a 7-5 ASU team, but might find it difficult. It would be awkward to invite a team with a 5-3 conference record to the playoffs unless all SoCon teams with better conference records are also invited. Unless the committee could find a team to woof :(

[PantherRob82]

I don't think App St makes it. I think the SoCon defenses are catching on. App is one of the best teams in the country, but they might not make it out of the SoCon alive.

On the other hand, I wouldn't be suprised if they win out.

haha

[james_lawfirm]

NO NO NO!!! GSU did not get in and we had 4 losses.


Not to pick nits, but I think the real criteria is to have 7 Div. 1 wins. That is a guideline for the playoff committee. So, doing the math, since App plays all Div. 1 teams this year (I presume Presby counts as a Div. 1 team), if we had 4 losses, we would have 8 wins.

Furthermore, I doubt your sense of justice would count for much with the playoff committee. In other words, I doubt the committee considers past decisions when making this year's choices.

[james_lawfirm]

I don't think App St makes it. I think the SoCon defenses are catching on. App is one of the best teams in the country, but they might not make it out of the SoCon alive.

On the other hand, I wouldn't be suprised if they win out.

haha


Hedging your bets, aren't cha?

[RabidRabbit]

NO NO NO!!! GSU did not get in and we had 4 losses.

But does App St. have any non-counters? Jacksonville Dolphins are a non-schollie, but they do count as a D-I win. So, 8-4, all D-I wins. Heck ya, Mountaineers make the play-offs.

With the lack of FBS wins by FCS teams, there will be few 9 D-I win teams out there to take. Once strength of schedule fits in, App St. will be in.

[griz&beer]

There is no way ASU losses 4 games no way. 9 and 3 ???

[mcveyrl]

First off, for the auto-bid, I don't think two losses in the SoCon would do it, but it might (probably some tiebreaker involved).

But, I do think they still get in at 8-4. 8 D-I wins with all the other factors does it.

[AppGrad06]

It depends on how the SoCon pans out in general. As we all saw, last year 2 in conference loses won the SoCon last year. So with 4 total loses the auto bid is not out of the question and atleast the 2 top SoCon teams get in anyway.

[T-Dog]

There is no way ASU losses 4 games no way. 9 and 3 ???

That's what I was thinking. I seriously doubt we lose two conference games. One is most definitely a possibility but two is doubtful.

I mean, we just lost to the 2nd/3rd best team in the nation at their place. And we lost to the defending BCS Champs. Yeah last night sucked, but it's nowhere near the end of the world.

[mcveyrl]

It depends on how the SoCon pans out in general. As we all saw, last year 2 in conference loses won the SoCon last year. So with 4 total loses the auto bid is not out of the question and atleast the 2 top SoCon teams get in anyway.

That's a good point, and I think that this year you can count on the top three from the SoCon getting in.

[PantherRob82]

Hedging your bets, aren't cha?

haha. yeah. I guess I'm saying my opinion is they won't be in, but that you can't count them out. It's just a hunch and I've only seen the LSU game.

[URMite]

Assuming all are DI counters than ASU would be the 1st 8-4 team in. But I doubt they would jump over any 9-3/8-3 from the top 5 conf (Socon, CAA, MVFC, BSC, SLC) or Cal Poly. And yes 8-4 could win the Socon.

I still think a major conf 8-4 team may be left out, just doubt it would be ASU.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

So much to play out yet... xrotatehx

This question has two parts:

1) Will 8-4 teams make it?

This depends on the quality of the field. There are 8 at-large teams, and SDSU and NDSU are going to keep things interesting this year for sure. Of those 8 at-large, I am guessing the following:

2 CAA (could be 3 - no five teams this year though!)
2 MVC
2 Socon (Elon, Furman, +1)
2 Others

8-4 might be too large a margin of error for even App St.

2) If an 8-4 team is chosen, would it be App St.?

Um Yes.

But still, I am guessing a team that is 9-2 from a "lesser" conference - say Liberty or Albany - will get in before an 8-4 ASU. They could make it, but all this talk about the road is silly. They will win any bid out there except vs. Montana. They will only play on the road to Montana or a seeded team.

In general, I think 8-4 will not cut it. Too many teams with better records will be pissed. Not just one (like GSU last year about UNH), but several since some might be 8-3 and some might be 9-3.

Way too much football left though.

[Reign of Terrier]

I certainly don't see app state losing two more games. I think wofford will be their biggest threat. schedule is certainly favorable for them.

Wofford plays GREAT on the road.

[jus10asu]

App. is just gettin started. The JMU game was our first real measuring stick and we know that we are a great team as long as we can FINISH THE GAME. It doesn't surprise me to see people jumping off the wagon already though. We will be fine this year and I think we're good for the playoffs. I think as soon as we sure up our less than stellar kickoff team and finish fine tuning our passing we will be very tough to beat. I know the SOCON is good this year but I just don't see us losing more than two games, if that. We won't lose to Samford, Chatty, or WheeCC. The only two I would be really worried about is Wofford and GSU. Elon will be a good game but I can't see them beating us. We lost to a good JMU (second half) team. This is a wake up call for us and I feel very sorry for presby next week. Lots of ball left this year. Can't wait to see this team start to gel.

[APPStrongNC]

It would be a stretch for ASU to enter the playoff with 4 in the L. However, looking at the remaining schedule, if ASU gets away with only 2 more losses, I will be happy.
After the D shutting down in the second half, and yeah they shut the F-down and on the road and to JMU. It ASU ends 8-4 and get in, someone was kissing something.
Question, in the 2007 playoff. Which team had the most losses that entered the playoffs??

I hope ASU runs the table the remainder of the year, but some things need to get worked out..
All that said, I thought it was a great game. And I for one feel these two teams needs to play every year, in the reg season. xthumbsupx

[APPStrongNC]

We won't lose to Samford, Chatty, or WheeCC. The only two I would be really worried about is Wofford and GSU. Elon will be a good game but I can't see them beating us.

Could not agree more....
The 10/31 game implications got notched up a little with the loss to JMU...

[uofmman1122]

Question, in the 2007 playoff. Which team had the most losses that entered the playoffs??Pretty sure it was UNH at 4 losses, but I could be wrong.

I was certainly surprised when they made it, but they had a good showing against UNI, so...

[APPStrongNC]

Pretty sure it was UNH at 4 losses, but I could be wrong.

I was certainly surprised when they made it, but they had a good showing against UNI, so...

Thanxs xthumbsupx

[appfan2008]

Did I miss something here? App loses on the road, by 3 points, to a solid, top-5 team. They have one more tough road game and have Citadel, Furman, Elon & Wofford at home.

App doesn't lose two more games. xnodx

i like how this guy thinks!

[appfan2008]

It would be a stretch for ASU to enter the playoff with 4 in the L. However, looking at the remaining schedule, if ASU gets away with only 2 more losses, I will be happy.
After the D shutting down in the second half, and yeah they shut the F-down and on the road and to JMU. It ASU ends 8-4 and get in, someone was kissing something.
Question, in the 2007 playoff. Which team had the most losses that entered the playoffs??

I hope ASU runs the table the remainder of the year, but some things need to get worked out..
All that said, I thought it was a great game. And I for one feel these two teams needs to play every year, in the reg season. xthumbsupx

I think you are crazy!... ASU will be in at 4 losses... and not because we are kissing someone's ass... xnonox

UNH with 4

[appfan2008]

So much to play out yet... xrotatehx

This question has two parts:

1) Will 8-4 teams make it?

This depends on the quality of the field. There are 8 at-large teams, and SDSU and NDSU are going to keep things interesting this year for sure. Of those 8 at-large, I am guessing the following:

2 CAA (could be 3 - no five teams this year though!)
2 MVC
2 Socon (Elon, Furman, +1)
2 Others

8-4 might be too large a margin of error for even App St.

2) If an 8-4 team is chosen, would it be App St.?

Um Yes.

But still, I am guessing a team that is 9-2 from a "lesser" conference - say Liberty or Albany - will get in before an 8-4 ASU. They could make it, but all this talk about the road is silly. They will win any bid out there except vs. Montana. They will only play on the road to Montana or a seeded team.

In general, I think 8-4 will not cut it. Too many teams with better records will be pissed. Not just one (like GSU last year about UNH), but several since some might be 8-3 and some might be 9-3.

Way too much football left though.

GSU DID NOT HAVE THE REQUIRED 7 DI WINS!!!

[WrenFGun]

I think it depends on the quality of Appalachian State's victories and the performance of the teams they lose to. James Madison seems a likely playoff team, so that ought not to hurt them much. They are undeniably the best 8-4 team in the country, if that happens (though NDSU may have something to say about that). With that said, if Elon, Wofford and Furman all finished 8-3 or better and APP doesn't win the SoCon, they could be in trouble.

Right now, UNH, JMU, 'Nova and Richmond all look like strong candidates from the CAA, though that could easily change. Only UNI has really solidified itself in the MVFC, but again, they play SIU this weekend. We'll see how smaller conference teams do (Dayton, Albany, Liberty) and if the Southland can get more than just McNeese for a change (looking at you UCA and Sam Houston). With Jacksonville State and Tennessee State, too, it'll be interesting.

I do believe there could be a case for taking an 8-4 team over an 8-3 team, particularly if all four losses for the 8-4 team are quality (and APP could have that happen). For example, if UNH goes 8-3 and loses to UMass, Villanova and William and Mary, I'd be apt to take an App State team with losses to Wofford, Furman, LSU and JMU, assuming quality wins over say Elon, The Citadel and Georgia Southern.

[BULLDOG8180]

conference play tell all hard to speculate
but CAA has wins over our top teams

Only top team CAA has a win over is APP ST. xeekx

[neersnbeers]

We'll be fine, 9-3 if anything.

[appfan2008]

We'll be fine, 9-3 if anything.

Id like to hope so but we have five tough games coming up here in socon play...

[SoCon48]

I don't think so. The NCAA has demonstrated time and again that tradition and attendance will give any team help to get in the playoffs.

Money talks, and that's the NCAA's language.

Depends on how many slots are left after the CAA gets their 4 or 5. The SoCon will get 2 max, App would have to be one of those two.

[neersnbeers]

Id like to hope so but we have five tough games coming up here in socon play...

You are right. I just think Moore and Co. + 30,000 fans will take care of 4 of them. We'll see what happens in Statesboro. Guess I'm just keeping the glass half full.;) xsmiley_wix

[biggie]

You are right. I just think Moore and Co. + 30,000 fans will take care of 4 of them. We'll see what happens in Statesboro. Guess I'm just keeping the glass half full.;) xsmiley_wix

Yes, given the current standings, I'm very happy we have 4 of our toughest games at home. Hopefully improving will continue now, like what happened after GSU last year.

[ASUG8]

I still think we have an opportunity to maybe sweep the SoCon despite the rough start. We have El Cid, Elon, Furman, and Wofford at the Rock this season which should improve our chances. GSU can be hostile, but likely no worse than LSU or JMU. You always have to worry some about UTC and I don't know what butterbean in the 'whee will do this season, but I like our chances to go 9-3 and lock up the conference.