Odds of getting 7+ D-I Wins

[HensRock]

I've updated my odds to include Saturdays results. Some teams were eliminated and 2 more reached the 7 D-I win plateau. They are Coastal Carolina and New Hampshire. This represents the odds I feel of teams making it to 7+ D-I wins with consideration for their remaining schedules (not necessarily the odds of making the playoffs!). i.e. a team with an easy remaining schedule and only needing 1 more win with 3 games left is going to have a very high probablility of reaching 7 D-I wins.

The numbers in parens following each team are the wins each team needs followed by the number of remaining D-I games. So "2/3" is read as "needs to win 2 of remaining 3 games".

Here are the odds in order of decreasing probability:

100.00% New Hampshire (already has 7 D-I wins)
100.00% Coastal Carolina (already has 7 D-I wins)
100.00% Hampton (already has 7 D-I wins)
100.00% Furman (Already has 7 D-I wins)
97.00% Lehigh (1/3)
97.00% Eastern Illinois (1/3)
96.40% Massachusetts (1/3)
95.00% Georgia Southern (1/2)
92.40% Appalachian State (1/3)
89.60% South Carolina State (2/3)
87.50% Lafayette (1/3)
80.00% Montana (2/3)
75.00% Colgate (2/3)
70.00% Richmond (2/3)
70.00% Youngstown State (1/2)
70.00% Cal Poly (2/3)
65.00% Montana State (2/3)
60.00% Southern Illinois (2/3)
60.00% Western Kentucky (2/3)
56.00% Illinois State (2/2)
55.00% William & Mary (2/3)
38.40% Hofstra (2/3)
36.00% Portland State (2/2)
35.00% Bethune-Cookman (2/3)
35.00% Jacksonville State (2/2)
35.00% Holy Cross (2/2)
34.30% Eastern Kentucky (3/3)
21.00% Texas State (3/3)
18.00% Chattanooga (2/2)
17.50% Northwestern State (3/3)
12.50% Eastern Washington (3/3)
12.00% Wofford (3/3)
12.00% McNeese State (3/3)
8.00% Towson (3/3)
6.30% Northern Iowa (3/3)
6.00% Villanova (3/3)
2.80% Georgetown (3/3)