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Eagles_Cliff
October 30th, 2005, 07:58 PM
Below are the 35 likely teams still competing for one of the 16 spots in the playoffs. Listed by Auto-Bid Conference record, overall record, teams lost to, and remaining games.

A-10
UNH (5-1) (7-1) Wm & Mary - @Hofstra, Iona, Maine
UMass (5-1) (6-2) UNH, Colgate - @Delaware, @Army, @Hofstra
Richmond (5-1) (5-3) UMass, Lafayette, Vandy - VMI, @Towson, W&M
W&M (3-2) (5-3) URI, 'Nova, Marshall - JMU, Delaware, @Richmond
Hofstra (3-2) (5-3) JMU, Richmond, Furman - UNH, @NU, UMass

If UNH wins out, they receive auto-bid and are seeded top 2, 1 loss still in and probably host if bid good enough, 2 losses on the bubble
Umass is OK if only loss is to Army, If 2 losses, extremely unlikely
Richmond can get the auto if Hofstra wins out or UMass and UNH drop a conference game and should get at-large if they win out themselves.
W&M and Hofstra must win out to be in

Big Sky
Montana (3-1) (6-2) Oregon, E. Wash - @NAU, @Sac St., @Mont St
Mont St. (3-1) (5-3) Okla St, C-Poly, Port St. - Sac St., @E. Wash, Montana
E. Wash (4-2) (5-3) SJose St., Id St., Web St. - @C-Poly, MSU, UC-Davis
Weber St.(4-2) (5-4) Fresno St., ND St, UM, MSU - @Port St, @SUtah
Portland St.(3-2) (5-4) Oregon St., E.Wash, Boise St.,UM - @Idaho St,Web St
Montana is in with one loss, but needs to win out for auto-bid
MSU needs to win out or stay home
E. Wash should be in if they win out, and get the auto if MSU beats UM
Portland and Weber need to win out and need UM and MSU to lose twice and E. Wash to lose once, but they're still alive ;)

Gateway
YSU (4-1) (7-2) Pitt, UNI - @SIU, WKU
SIU (4-1) (6-2) W. Mich, Ill. St. - YSU, @UNI, ND St.
WKU (4-1) (6-2) Auburn, SIU - UNI, @YSU, @Fla Int'l
UNI (3-2) (5-3) Iowa, Mo. St, Ill St - @WKU, SIU, NAU

YSU - Win one and in, two for auto
SIU and WKU are in with 2 more wins
UNI wins next two and YSU loses one, they get the auto

MEAC (pronounced Meek)
Hampton (6-0) (8-0) @B-CC, FAMU, Sav'h St
SC St. (4-1) (6-2) Coastal Carolina, Hampton - @Howard, Morgan St., NC AT

Hampton is in barring total collapse vs Sav'h St., but A-10, Big Sky, Gateway, and SoCon will be seeded if UNH, UM, FU or ASU, and anyone but UNI are autos
SC St. shouldn't be in but could be if win out and several other teams lose

OVC
E. Ill (5-0) (6-2) BYU, Ill St. - @Tenn St., Tenn Tech, @Jax St.
Jax St. (5-1) (5-4) Furman, UT-Chatt, EKU, UAB - @Samford, E. Ill
EKU (4-1) (4-4) ASU, WKU, NC St., E. Ill - @Murray St., UT-Martin, @Tenn St.

E. Ill may get in with 2 wins and a loss to Jax St.
Jax St and EKU have a chance to steal someone's bid. Jax just needs to win out. EKU needs to win out AND have E. Ill lose their next two, but beat Jax.

Patriot
Lafayette (3-0) (6-2) Princeton, Harvard - Colgate, @Holy Cross, @Lehigh
Lehigh (2-1) (6-2) Delaware, Holy Cross - Georgetown, @Fordham, Lafayette
Colgate (2-1) (5-3) C. Conn, Dartmouth, Lehigh - @Lafayette, Bucknell, @G'town
If Lafayette wins out, they are the lone team from Patriot
Lehigh is in automatically if they win out, but would probably be passed up if they're 8-3 based on SOS
Colgate can get the auto IF they win out AND Lehigh loses one

SoCon
Furman (3-1) (7-1) WCU - @GSU, Wofford, UT-Chatt
ASU (4-1) (6-2) Kansas, Furman - @LSU, WCU, @Elon
GSU (4-2) (6-3) McNeese St., Wofford, ASU - Furman, Morehead St
Wofford (3-2) (5-3) W.Va, UT-Chatt, ASU - @WCU, @Furman, @Gardner-Webb
WCU (3-2) (4-3) Cincy, Citadel, GSU - Wofford, @ASU

Furman is in with one loss, but maybe not with 2
ASU is in with one loss, but probably not with 2
GSU must win out
Wofford beat GSU and lost to a 1A and ASU, but they get no love. They need to win out to be considered and can get the auto in crazy scenario
WCU can get the auto in crazy scenario, winning out probably wouldnt be enough

Southland
McNeese (3-1) (4-2) So Miss, SE La - @Tex St, NW St., @Nicholls St.
Texas St. (2-1) (6-2) Tex AM, Nicholls St. - McNeese, @SFA, Sam Houston
NW St. (2-1) (4-3) ND St., La-Laf, Tex St. - Nicholls St., @McNeese, SFA
Nicholls St. (2-1) (3-3) Indiana, ND St., SFA - @NW St., @SE La, McNeese

All four of these teams control their own destiny for the auto except NW who needs Tex St. to lose 1. Texas St. can lose one and be a very good 8-3 at-large pick. NW St. is more on the bubble at 8-3 and Nicholls and McNeese would both be in serious trouble at 6-3 unless we have Katrina/Rita playoff relief.

At-Large-Only Teams

Coastal Carolina should be in at 10-1 with a loss to App St.
Cal-Poly has 3 quality losses to Troy St., Montana, and UC-Davis, but will need the autos to fall right to get in at 8-3
UC-Davis has a very outside chance at an at large if 8-3 even though they're better than maybe 3 or 4 teams that Will get in
North Dakota St is in the same boat with Cal-Poly and UC-Davis if 8-3

Big Games this week IMO are:

UNH @ Hofstra
UMass @ Delaware
JMU @ Wm & Mary
E. Wash @ Cal-Poly
YSU @ SIU
UNI @ WKU
Hampton @ B-CC
Colgate @ Lafayette
Furman @ GSU
Wofford @ WCU
McNeese @ Tex St
Nicholls St. @ NW St.

TexasTerror
October 30th, 2005, 08:19 PM
Texas St. can lose one and be a very good 8-3 at-large pick.

Even with less than seven Division I wins? 6-3 in Div I-AA is considered playoff-eligible?

aggie6thman
October 30th, 2005, 08:30 PM
We can't go to the playoffs, just help to ruin other team's post-season hopes and dreams.

barechestcat
October 30th, 2005, 08:37 PM
North Dakota State is not playoff eligible for this year and next at least. Which is too bad because I am impressed with their program.

Reed Rothchild
October 30th, 2005, 08:41 PM
Nice breakdown

EagleCrusade
October 30th, 2005, 09:07 PM
I believe if Coastal Carolina made the playoffs they would be traveling to Statesboro.

PIRATETIZED1
October 30th, 2005, 09:18 PM
Eagles_cliff.....

Good Job! Well Thought out!!! Kudos 2 ya'!!!


PIRATETIZED :cool:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
HAMPTON UNIVERSITY - “…Of Service To God and Our Nation…”

siugrad99
October 30th, 2005, 09:46 PM
Forgot to mention that SIU wins 2 and wins gateway outright, if they win next week vs. YSU worst they can do is share the title, each scenerio gives them a chance at the automatic bid depending on who beats who. Should be very interesting in Gateway. I can see a scenerio where we get 2 bid and 1 of them being UNI (Sanders back scares the crap out of me) and the other being a toss up. If SIU beats YSU and loses to UNI there is a chance UNI & SIU are the 2 bids since SIU would have beaten a then # 1 WKU team and a ranked YSU team, but WHO KNOWS this year has been nuts.

Toppermaniac
October 31st, 2005, 12:27 AM
Forgot to mention that SIU wins 2 and wins gateway outright, if they win next week vs. YSU worst they can do is share the title, each scenerio gives them a chance at the automatic bid depending on who beats who. Should be very interesting in Gateway. I can see a scenerio where we get 2 bid and 1 of them being UNI (Sanders back scares the crap out of me) and the other being a toss up. If SIU beats YSU and loses to UNI there is a chance UNI & SIU are the 2 bids since SIU would have beaten a then # 1 WKU team and a ranked YSU team, but WHO KNOWS this year has been nuts.

Actually, you're wrong. SIU does not guaranee a share of the Gateway by beating YSU this coming week. If they lose to UNI the following week and WKU wins the next two, WKU would win the title and SIU would be a game back.

FU97
October 31st, 2005, 08:49 AM
I believe if Coastal Carolina made the playoffs they would be traveling to Statesboro.

Well since GSU will be losing to Furman this weekend, I can't see GSU making the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised to see Coastal in Greenville for Thanksgiving weekend.

:D

chantman
October 31st, 2005, 08:58 AM
Do the playoffs begin the 26th?

EagleCrusade
October 31st, 2005, 09:10 AM
Well since GSU will be losing to Furman this weekend, I can't see GSU making the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised to see Coastal in Greenville for Thanksgiving weekend.

:D

:anim_chai

EagleCrusade
October 31st, 2005, 09:11 AM
Well since GSU will be losing to Furman this weekend, I can't see GSU making the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised to see Coastal in Greenville for Thanksgiving weekend.

:D

*note you're the one w/o the chainsaw
:anim_chai

now, thats funny.

siugrad99
October 31st, 2005, 09:16 AM
Your correct, my mistake, although I think it will be VERY tough for WKU to win out, it can definitely happen, but the way the Gateway has been all season I find it unlikely. Could be a 3 way tie at the top when it is over

JaxSinfonian
October 31st, 2005, 01:52 PM
OVC
E. Ill (5-0) (6-2) BYU, Ill St. - @Tenn St., Tenn Tech, @Jax St.
Jax St. (5-1) (5-4) Furman, UT-Chatt, EKU, UAB - @Samford, E. Ill
EKU (4-1) (4-4) ASU, WKU, NC St., E. Ill - @Murray St., UT-Martin, @Tenn St.

E. Ill may get in with 2 wins and a loss to Jax St.
Jax St and EKU have a chance to steal someone's bid. Jax just needs to win out. EKU needs to win out AND have E. Ill lose their next two, but beat Jax.


Actually, JSU needs to win out and have EKU drop at least one of its next three to get the autobid.

And it's our bid. We're just taking it back. ;)

Toppermaniac
November 1st, 2005, 12:30 AM
Your correct, my mistake, although I think it will be VERY tough for WKU to win out, it can definitely happen, but the way the Gateway has been all season I find it unlikely. Could be a 3 way tie at the top when it is over

Well, if it's unlikely for WKU to win out, wouldn't you say the exact same thing about SIU considering we play the same two Gateway teams over the next two weeks? Don't exactly understand your logic.