Late Game Strategy Question

[TypicalTribe]

Not sure if this is the proper forum, but I've always wondered about the best way to handle the following situation:

Inside of 2 minutes to play, your team has a 1 point lead and scores a TD to go up 7.

Every single time I've seen this happen, the coach decides to kick the extra point to go up 8. However, I've always thought it's worth the chance to go for 2 because it makes it a 2 score game and effectively decides the outcome. Plus, everyone, players coaches and fans, can breathe a little easier than if it was just a one score game. I think it's worth the gamble, because even if the 2-point try is not successful, you've still got a 7 point lead.

I can't recall it ever happening, but anyone else with me?

[OL FU]

Not sure if this is the proper forum, but I've always wondered about the best way to handle the following situation:

Inside of 2 minutes to play, your team has a 1 point lead and scores a TD to go up 7.

Every single time I've seen this happen, the coach decides to kick the extra point to go up 8. However, I've always thought it's worth the chance to go for 2 because it makes it a 2 score game and effectively decides the outcome. Plus, everyone, players coaches and fans, can breathe a little easier than if it was just a one score game. I think it's worth the gamble, because even if the 2-point try is not successful, you've still got a 7 point lead.

I can't recall it ever happening, but anyone else with me?

No offense but I refuse to respond to any questions related to going for two. :o

[AppGuy04]

Not sure if this is the proper forum, but I've always wondered about the best way to handle the following situation:

Inside of 2 minutes to play, your team has a 1 point lead and scores a TD to go up 7.

Every single time I've seen this happen, the coach decides to kick the extra point to go up 8. However, I've always thought it's worth the chance to go for 2 because it makes it a 2 score game and effectively decides the outcome. Plus, everyone, players coaches and fans, can breathe a little easier than if it was just a one score game. I think it's worth the gamble, because even if the 2-point try is not successful, you've still got a 7 point lead.

I can't recall it ever happening, but anyone else with me?

well, personally, i'd kick the PAT, go up by 8 and try and stop them.

if you go for 2, then u are up by 7 if u don't make it, in this instance, they could beat you

if you kick the PAT, the most they could do is tie

[TypicalTribe]

well, personally, i'd kick the PAT, go up by 8 and try and stop them.

if you go for 2, then u are up by 7 if u don't make it, in this instance, they could beat you

if you kick the PAT, the most they could do is tie

But realistically, if you're up by 7 or 8 the worst you can do is overtime since every coach plays for tie these days. I just think it's a more aggressive strategy and the way to go, especially if you don't have a strong defense.

[AppGuy04]

But realistically, if you're up by 7 or 8 the worst you can do is overtime since every coach plays for tie these days. I just think it's a more aggressive strategy and the way to go, especially if you don't have a strong defense.

if you are up by 7, the worst you can do is lose

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I would play it like a poker player - it depends.

While your question is mathematical, it begs one to ask, which is stronger on your team, the O or the D?

If you trust in your D, go for 1. Up by 8 should be a lock.

If you trust in your O, go for two. If they tie, you know you can trust you can beat them in OT.

There may be a whole host of other factors including home field advantage, field condition, injuries, etc.

Usually teams are decidedly stronger and weaker in one or the other. And after 58 minutes of play, you know how well you match up vs. the other team.

Would be an interesting research project of probability for any stats majors out there...

[89Hen]

Kick the PAT. PAT's are successful 93.8% of the time in the NCAA and two point conversions are successful 43.5% of the time. Take the 94% chance and make them convert a 44% chance to tie. If you fail (as you will more than half the time), you're going to OT 93.8% of the time.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

See, I'd rather see a breakdown of those percentages. Very broad and useful, but I bet there are plenty of loopholes where a team can take advantage of certain circumstances. I've always considered myself more of calculated risk kind of person. :cool:

I hate the prevent defense with a passion!!! Although it almost gave us a chance vs. Delaware last week. Thanks hens, for making the SCORE look close... :rolleyes:

[LBPop]

Many coaches fear capping off a positive event like a touchdown with a failure of any kind. This is especially true late in the game when everyone is tired and emotions can lift a team up or drag them down. I have seen first hand when a team scores and their excitement suddenly is drained when the PAT (for one or two points) fails. You can see it in the body language of the kickoff team when they run out on the field. Also, it gives the opponent a small "victory" to build on as they mount their comeback. Unless you must have the "two", go for the near certain "one".

[putter]

Here's a twist that happened last week. Lex Hilliard scores a TD with :40 left and puts the Griz up 36-27 on Cal Poly. Instead of kicking the extra point and go up by 10, the coach has the team line up like he is going for 2 and has the QB take a knee. Avoiding any chance of a return or a blocked kick!

[TypicalTribe]

Kick the PAT. PAT's are successful 93.8% of the time in the NCAA and two point conversions are successful 43.5% of the time. Take the 94% chance and make them convert a 44% chance to tie. If you fail (as you will more than half the time), you're going to OT 93.8% of the time.

You're going to OT 93.8% of the time that the other team scores a TD, which is probably only about 30% of the time.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Hey putter,

If Marty Schottenheimer had been watching that game, maybe the Chargers would have learned a thing or two and pulled out the win in Philly... ;)

[Paladin1aa]

89Hen has the correct answer.

From an old rundown ex-HFC !! :p

[TypicalTribe]

Here's a twist that happened last week. Lex Hilliard scores a TD with :40 left and puts the Griz up 36-27 on Cal Poly. Instead of kicking the extra point and go up by 10, the coach has the team line up like he is going for 2 and has the QB take a knee. Avoiding any chance of a return or a blocked kick!

Very intelligent coaching. Realizes how valuable the 2 score lead is and doesn't do anything to jeopardize it.

Must have been watching the Furman/ASU game in '02.

[griz37]

Very intelligent coaching. Realizes how valuable the 2 score lead is and doesn't do anything to jeopardize it.

Must have been watching the Furman/ASU game in '02.

Some Griz fans over on egriz.com think it was the worst coaching move ever & called it "playing not to lose"

[putter]

Hey putter,

If Marty Schottenheimer had been watching that game, maybe the Chargers would have learned a thing or two and pulled out the win in Philly... ;)


I guess that is why they pay him the big bucks!!!! xlolx

[LBPop]

Some Griz fans over on egriz.com think it was the worst coaching move ever & called it "playing not to lose"

Playing "not to lose" can be dangerous in the first quarter. With 40 seconds left, playing not to lose a game that you have virtually won is the right thing to do. When a coach has the QB kneel down at the end of regulation, that's "playing not to lose"--does anyone complain about that?

As an aside and as I hear the story, one of Georgetown's most dramatic victories came against Duquesne in 2001 (I believe). I may not have all the correct details, but Duquesne scored late in the game to tie it at 13. They lined up for the potentially winning PAT--it was blocked by a Hoya and returned for the game winning 2 points. Yep, in football as in life, #$&%#! happens. :p

[89Hen]

You're going to OT 93.8% of the time that the other team scores a TD, which is probably only about 30% of the time.
We are assuming the other team scores a TD, otherwise there's no arguement.

[AZGrizFan]

Some Griz fans over on egriz.com think it was the worst coaching move ever & called it "playing not to lose"

Same fans who'd have called for Hauck's head if he'd had the kick blocked, or called him a loser for running up the score if he'd run the 2-point play and been successful. There are some over there for whom BH can do nothing right. I'll take 5-2 and atop the BSC any day.

[TypicalTribe]

We are assuming the other team scores a TD, otherwise there's no arguement.

But the real question is, what percentage of the time does the opposing team score a TD in that situation? The more likely you are to give up the tying TD, the more it makes sense to try for 2 and put the game away.

[griz37]

Playing "not to lose" can be dangerous in the first quarter. With 40 seconds left, playing not to lose a game that you have virtually won is the right thing to do. When a coach has the QB kneel down at the end of regulation, that's "playing not to lose"--does anyone complain about that?

:p

Hoya,
You don't know a lot about Griz fans do you? A large contigent would not be happy if we went 15-0 and ran the ball 80% of the time. To them we need to throw the ball 55 times a game, score 63 points a game & win by at least 50 points each game. For some reason things seem to have gotten worse since Bobby Hauck took over. :confused: The whiners continue to whine no matter how much the Griz succeed.

[eaglesrthe1]

But the real question is, what percentage of the time does the opposing team score a TD in that situation? The more likely you are to give up the tying TD, the more it makes sense to try for 2 and put the game away.

I would think that the % would be low. Less than 15%, IMO.

[kardplayer]

I generally agree with the "it depends" answer, but I'd lean towards going for 2.

One critical question would be - if I go for 2 and miss, what's the chance the other coach will go for 2 and the win? I don't want to take a chance of losing in regulation, but if I can safely assume the other coach will play for the tie and kick the PAT, then I'd go for the "certain" win every time.

Essentially, I need to be 100% successful on one play to clinch the game instead of having to make a series of plays to kick the ball off, play defense and keep them out of the end zone, and potentially have to stop a 2 point conversion in order to win the game.

[ASU Kep]

Or...the 2 point conversion could be picked off in the endzone, returned for a touchdown, and you end up kicking off. But man, what are the chances of something like that happening?

[ASU Kep]

Heh, two threads that give my an oppurtunity to talk about The "Miracle on the Mountain" at once = Priceless.

[SoCon48]

Not sure if this is the proper forum, but I've always wondered about the best way to handle the following situation:

Inside of 2 minutes to play, your team has a 1 point lead and scores a TD to go up 7.

Every single time I've seen this happen, the coach decides to kick the extra point to go up 8. However, I've always thought it's worth the chance to go for 2 because it makes it a 2 score game and effectively decides the outcome. Plus, everyone, players coaches and fans, can breathe a little easier than if it was just a one score game. I think it's worth the gamble, because even if the 2-point try is not successful, you've still got a 7 point lead.

I can't recall it ever happening, but anyone else with me?

If you go for 2, run it, don't pass. An interception returned all the way gives the other team 2 pts..and you have to kick to them!
It can happen. It's called the "Lamb phenomenom".

[Tod]

But the real question is, what percentage of the time does the opposing team score a TD in that situation? The more likely you are to give up the tying TD, the more it makes sense to try for 2 and put the game away.

So what I think you're saying is that if it's a mudbowl or just a tough defensive struggle and the score is (was) 3-2, then you go for one because there's not much chance the other team will score anyway. But if the score was 55-54, go for two because there's a much better chance they'll score another TD, right?

[arkstfan]

Kick the PAT. PAT's are successful 93.8% of the time in the NCAA and two point conversions are successful 43.5% of the time. Take the 94% chance and make them convert a 44% chance to tie. If you fail (as you will more than half the time), you're going to OT 93.8% of the time.

Agree 100% (just to stick with percentages) although I think 2 point coversion success rate is skewed by the unintended 2 point plays (botched snaps, botched holds, and mistimed approaches) that are just fire drills.

An 8 point lead means they HAVE to score a TD and then get one play to tie.

I think fans and sometimes coaches get obsessed with the two point conversion. There was some debate after the Arkansas State - Louisiana Lafayette game as to whether ULL should have gone for 2 with less than a minute and go for the lead or kick and take the tie. They went for the tie. Of course it became a moot point because a good kickoff return and 3 remaining timeouts were parlayed into a game winning FG for Arkansas State.

I figure I'll take my chances on winning a match scores game in OT over having to recover an onside kickoff with 48 seconds left if the 2 point play fails.

[arkstfan]

If you go for 2, run it, don't pass. An interception returned all the way gives the other team 2 pts..and you have to kick to them!
It can happen. It's called the "Lamb phenomenom".

Man that's not the only way it can happen. 1993, New Mexico State at Arkansas State. ASU scores a TD to go down 1. We pull our passing QB and put in our running QB and go for 2 and the win. He runs to his left and is cut-off, dives for the end zone and lands in the end zone without the ball which had popped out just inside the one. Aggies pick it up and take it the distance. NMSU recovers the onside kick and kneel a couple times for the 3 point win.

[arkstfan]

Here's a twist that happened last week. Lex Hilliard scores a TD with :40 left and puts the Griz up 36-27 on Cal Poly. Instead of kicking the extra point and go up by 10, the coach has the team line up like he is going for 2 and has the QB take a knee. Avoiding any chance of a return or a blocked kick!

Wow. They probably wouldn't have liked the way Arkansas State handled a 1993 game against Nevada. Hit a 53 yard pass at the horn for 2 point lead. Huge celebration, picked up 30 yards in a penalties for the PAT. Didn't even pretend to try a two, lined up to kneel.

Any questions about that strategy see post above about the earlier NMSU game.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Although I am one of the guilty parties involved, I seriously cannot believe this thread is still going... Are we that slow in the days leading up to weekend games? I guess so...

[89Hen]

But the real question is, what percentage of the time does the opposing team score a TD in that situation? The more likely you are to give up the tying TD, the more it makes sense to try for 2 and put the game away.
Irrelevant. Even if there's a 99% chance they score a TD, you still go for the 94% and make them convert the 44%.

[bandl]

Let's move on! Let ASU/Furman duke this out one day in a real game!!! ;)

[SoCon48]

Agree 100% (just to stick with percentages) although I think 2 point coversion success rate is skewed by the unintended 2 point plays (botched snaps, botched holds, and mistimed approaches) that are just fire drills.

An 8 point lead means they HAVE to score a TD and then get one play to tie.

I think fans and sometimes coaches get obsessed with the two point conversion. There was some debate after the Arkansas State - Louisiana Lafayette game as to whether ULL should have gone for 2 with less than a minute and go for the lead or kick and take the tie. They went for the tie. Of course it became a moot point because a good kickoff return and 3 remaining timeouts were parlayed into a game winning FG for Arkansas State.

I figure I'll take my chances on winning a match scores game in OT over having to recover an onside kickoff with 48 seconds left if the 2 point play fails.
I'll agree.
There's a reason that most coaches with decades of experience in coaching do the same things. It's called W's vs L's.

[cosmo here]

Agree 100% (just to stick with percentages) although I think 2 point coversion success rate is skewed by the unintended 2 point plays (botched snaps, botched holds, and mistimed approaches) that are just fire drills.

In that circumstance, the play goes down as PAT failed and is not classified as a two-point attempt.