FCS vs FBS.. Round II

[ChickenMan]

Which FCS teams have the best chance to win or to play a very competitive game???


Idaho State @ Boise State
Illinois State @ Marshall
Towson @ Navy
Delaware @ Maryland
James Madison @ Duke
California Poly @ San Diego State
Maine @ Iowa
Villanova @ West Virginia
Appalachian State @ LSU
Chattanooga @ Oklahoma
Georgia Southern @ Georgia
Northern Iowa @ Brigham Young
Western Illinois @ Arkansas
Youngstown State @ Ohio State
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech
Northern Arizona @ Arizona State
McNeese State @ North Carolina
Coastal Carolina @ Penn State
Southern Utah @ Air Force
California Davis @ San Jose State
Tennessee Martin @ South Florida
South Carolina State @ Central Florida
Grambling State @ Nevada
Southern @ Houston

[Jacks76]

App St., NAU, W. Illinois, Cal Poly, James Madison, Eastern Washington, Georgia Southern.

Paul

[phoenix3]

McNeese v UNC should be interesting. Top Tier FCS vs. Middle of the road FBS team on the rebuild. Also, JMU v Dook... but we've already beaten that one to death.

[mcveyrl]

Del., JMU, McNeese, and Cal Poly

[UNCBears2010]

Definitely Cal Poly, San Diego State hasn't been any good since Marshall Faulk left.

[TheValleyRaider]

Delaware @ Maryland
James Madison @ Duke
California Poly @ San Diego State
Maine @ Iowa
Appalachian State @ LSU
McNeese State @ North Carolina
California Davis @ San Jose State

Those are the only ones I would even consider remotely possible

And of them, I really only feel potentially good about picking JMU and Cal Poly

Par for the course though. We'll pickup a handful of wins from the FBS this year, as always xcoolx

And we'll still have no doubts over our champion, as always xnodx xcoolx

[kirkblitz]

App and coastal

[RabidRabbit]

Western IL supposed to have a quality team to be in battling Jacks/Salukis/Penguins for a upper middle MoValley finish. Don't know about Hogs, but they didn't do to well last year did they?

Like in conference, WIU may be a sleeper here too.

Definitely hope that Poly, JMU and McNeese win their games vs FBS.

Poly & McNeese will be visiting Brookings this fall, so would like to welcome each of you as we did NDSU last fall.

[appfan2008]

These are the games that I think at least have a hope of being close... as fcs nation we really need to win 2 or 3 but i dont know which ones they will be...

Illinois State @ Marshall
Towson @ Navy
Delaware @ Maryland
James Madison @ Duke
California Poly @ San Diego State
Maine @ Iowa
Appalachian State @ LSU
Northern Iowa @ Brigham Young
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech
Northern Arizona @ Arizona State
McNeese State @ North Carolina
California Davis @ San Jose State
South Carolina State @ Central Florida
Grambling State @ Nevada
Southern @ Houston

[aust42]

I think these teams will be lopsided losses:

Idaho State @ Boise State
Illinois State @ Marshall
Maine @ Iowa
Villanova @ West Virginia
Appalachian State @ LSU
Chattanooga @ Oklahoma
Georgia Southern @ Georgia
Northern Iowa @ Brigham Young
Western Illinois @ Arkansas
Youngstown State @ Ohio State
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech
Northern Arizona @ Arizona State
Coastal Carolina @ Penn State
Southern Utah @ Air Force
Tennessee Martin @ South Florida
South Carolina State @ Central Florida
Grambling State @ Nevada
Southern @ Houston

These games will be competetive:

California Poly @ San Diego State
McNeese State @ North Carolina
California Davis @ San Jose State
Towson @ Navy

And these will be wins:

Delaware @ Maryland
James Madison @ Duke

Yes I'm from Delaware. xnodx

[grizband]

Idaho State @ Boise State
Illinois State @ Marshall
Towson @ Navy
Delaware @ Maryland
James Madison @ Duke
California Poly @ San Diego State
Maine @ Iowa
Villanova @ West Virginia
Appalachian State @ LSU
Chattanooga @ Oklahoma
Georgia Southern @ Georgia
Northern Iowa @ Brigham Young
Western Illinois @ Arkansas
Youngstown State @ Ohio State
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech
Northern Arizona @ Arizona State
McNeese State @ North Carolina
Coastal Carolina @ Penn State
Southern Utah @ Air Force
California Davis @ San Jose State
Tennessee Martin @ South Florida
South Carolina State @ Central Florida
Grambling State @ Nevada
Southern @ Houston

Best chances are JMU and Cal Poly; I really don't see a lot of other clear chances for FCS wins.

[matboz]

I'd like to see some close games out of them at least, with maybe a win or two:

Delaware
JMU
UNI
App

[already123]

The NAU game depends on the line of scrimmage...

[JohnStOnge]

Here are games involving FCS teams that are <20 point underdogs at betus.com at this time:

James Madison +1.5 at Duke
Cal Poly +7 at San Diego State
UC Davis +13 at San Jose State
Illinois State +15 at Marshall
McNeese State +17 at North Carolina
Delaware +18 at Maryland

Last time I posted about what's at betus.com Georgia Southern's game wasn't listed. Now it is. The Eagles are a 36 1/2 point underdog to Georgia.

One I think some of you guys are too hopeful about is Eastern Washington at Texas Tech. I think Texas Tech may have its best team ever this year. At betus.com, Eastern Washington is one of the biggest underdogs listed at +42.

I don't know if the betus.com lines have the same "characteristics" as the Vegas line. But I've played around with probabilities and the Vegas line before. My estimate is that 1.5 point underdogs by the Vegas line win about 46 percent of the time while, at the other end of the range, 18 point underdogs win about 13 percent of the time.

Just for fun, if you use that, you'd say that each FCS has about the following "chance" of winning:

JMU 46%
Cal Poly 33%
UC Davis 21%
Illinois State 17%
McNeese State 14%
Delaware 13%

[mvemjsunpx]

Cal Poly over SDSU
James Madison over Duke

Those 2 FCS teams should win those games. Losing would be a disappointment & would make me question their title contender statuses.


There are a few others that have an OK shot but probably won't happen:

Delaware @ Maryland
McNeese St. @ North Carolina
UC Davis @ SJSU

[JohnStOnge]

Killing time here and worked up a ranking by likelihood of winning based on Sagarin ratings. I took the Sagarin spread and estimated the percentage of the time teams that are an underdog (or favored) by a particular amount by Sagarin win the game. Example: UC Davis is +7.24 vs. San Jose State. I estimate teams that are +7.24 (7.24 point underdogs) by Sagarin win 32.5 percent of the time, or 1 time in each 3.1 games. So it's +7.24, 32.5%, 1 in 3.1.

James Madison -3.87 at Duke 59.6%, 1 in 1.7
UC Davis +7.24 at San Jose State 32.5%, 1 in 3.1
Illinois State +8.93 at Marshall 28.8%, 1 in 3.5
Cal Poly +9.64 at San Diego State, 27.3%, 1 in 3.7
McNeese State +16.66 at North Carolina, 14.9%, 1 in 6.7
Delaware +16.97 at Maryland, 14.4%, 1 in 6.9
Northern Iowa +18.23 at Brigham Young, 12.7%, 1 in 7.9
South Carolina State +21.09 at Central Florida, 9.4%, 1 in 10.7
Grambling State +21.11 at Nevada, 9.4%, 1 in 10.7
Maine +24.23 at Iowa, 6.5%, 1 in 15.4
Eastern Washington +24.64 at Texas Tech, 6.2%, 1 in 16.2
Towson +25.11 at Navy, 5.8%, 1 in 17.2
Appalachian State +26.16 at LSU, 5.1%, 1 in 19.6
Southern +28.37 at Houston, 3.8%, 1 in 26.2
Western Illinois +29.22 at Arkansas, 3.4%, 1 in 29.5
Georgia Southern +31.01 at Georgia, 2.6%, 1 in 38
Northern Arizona +31.31 at Arizona State, 2.5%, 1 in 39.7
Villanova +31.79 at West Virginia, 2.3%, 1 in 42.6
Youngstown State +33.11 at Ohio State, 1.9%, 1 in 51.9
Southern Utah +33.67 at Air Force, 1.8%, 1 in 56.6
Idaho State +38.58 at Boise State, 0.8%, 1 in 125.8
Tennessee Martin +40.32 at South Florida, 0.6%, 1 in 170.4
Coastal Carolina +40.46 at Penn State, 0.6%, 1 in 174.7
UT Chattanooga +46.11 at Oklahoma, 0.2%, 1 in 505.9

[KAUMASS]

I'm going to stick my neck out for Villanova. They will give WV all they want and this game will be closer than people think. Villanova has just about everyone back from last year except their TE. WV has a new coach and it is the first game. "Nova played Marland tough last year, and they beat Delaware to end the season. JMU spanked Villanova last year, but 'nova had a tough day against JMU. 'Nova outplayed UMass last year as well and should have won that game. I know Talley and spoke to him prior to the UMass game. He told me that 2008 was going to be a great year, as his team peaks every 4 years or so and 2008 was his peak assesment. He said he peaks every 4 years or so due to academics, as it is hard for him to recruit and get the type of kids he wants. He said "Every once in a while the planets align for him".

Good luck 'Nova.