"7-D-I Wins"

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I understand, sort of, how this works. Rather than taking teams "with no more than 3 losses", this year, the criteria have been changed to "teams will qualify for postseason consideration if they have "7 or more D-I wins".

This makes looking ahead to the possible I-AA playoff fields much more complicated. You have to look at every team and SOS to find out their eligibility. For example, if App St. loses to WCU for the 'Jug (and I'm presuming they're losing to I-A LSU), they're still 7-4 and an *extremely* strong consideration for the postseason, whereas last year they would have been out of the running. Theoretically, a 7-4 Georgia Southern team could also qualify for postseason consideration, but there's those losses to Wofford and McNeese St. to consider.

Northern Iowa, on the other hand, at 4-3, has to win out to make the playoffs, since they have a D-II win on their schedule (Minn-Duluth). Same with 4-3 Delaware, who would have to run the table to get to the playoffs (they played D-II West Chester). Basically, you can't just look at W/L records and know instantly whether you're in or out.

So I'd like to know, of the power conferences (Big Sky, A-10, SoCon, Gateway), who is still eligible for an at-large bid, and how many D-I wins would they need to make consideration?

[Black and Gold Express]

I would disagree about ASU, or any team, getting in with 4 losses. While the 7 D-I wins is supposedly the new standards, it's a standard that I believe should easily be reached by well more than 16 I-AA playoff-elligible squads annually. This year being no exception.

Should ASU lose another game to a I-AA team this season, they will not make the playoffs I believe.

[AppGuy04]

Well, with the 7 being the new standard, you will see less and less I-AA teams playing D2 teams

[OL FU]

I believe in the SoCon, all teams, except Western, Citadel and Elon are still eligible. Wofford has to run the table, which means beating Cit, WCU, FU and GWebb ( all away games)
Chatt - has five D-I wins and ASU away, FU and Cit at home but 7-4 is not going to get them in.

That leaves GSU, FU and ASU.
GSU has five wins three to go. Furman and Morehead at home and SD St away. Win all three and I think they are in. Lose one and out.
ASU has five wins four games to go. LSU the obvious loss. Chatt and WCU at home Elon away. This may be the one 7-4 team that would get an at large bid. FU has 7 wins. GSU and Chatt away and Wofford at home. Lose one we are in, Lose two - we will see. If Georgia Southern is 7-4 we are in, If they are 8-3 and ASU wins the conference, it will depend on whether the SoCon gets three in.

[AppGuy04]

Someone had made a thread showing how many more games teams could lose to still be eligible, can't seem to find it though

[Jacks99]

Well, with the 7 being the new standard, you will see less and less I-AA teams playing D2 teams


That should be a good thing. A few more games with D-I and the rest with I-AA.

[AppGuy04]

That should be a good thing. A few more games with D-I and the rest with I-AA.
it is a good thing, cause then I-AA teams who shall remain nameless will actually have to play better competition than St. Marys Catholic School Girls Football team

[OL FU]

it is a good thing, cause then I-AA teams who shall remain nameless will actually have to play better competition than St. Marys Catholic School Girls Football team

04, no offense, but let's keep this thread on target. :rolleyes: :D

[AppGuy04]

04, no offense, but let's keep this thread on target. :rolleyes: :D

haha, i couldn't help myself

but.........if i must

[OL FU]

haha, i couldn't help myself

but.........if i must

Well, I am not a moderator, thank goodness.
But it is appreciated. :)

[barechestcat]

I understand, sort of, how this works. Rather than taking teams "with no more than 3 losses", this year, the criteria have been changed to "teams will qualify for postseason consideration if they have "7 or more D-I wins".

This makes looking ahead to the possible I-AA playoff fields much more complicated. You have to look at every team and SOS to find out their eligibility. For example, if App St. loses to WCU for the 'Jug (and I'm presuming they're losing to I-A LSU), they're still 7-4 and an *extremely* strong consideration for the postseason, whereas last year they would have been out of the running. Theoretically, a 7-4 Georgia Southern team could also qualify for postseason consideration, but there's those losses to Wofford and McNeese St. to consider.

Northern Iowa, on the other hand, at 4-3, has to win out to make the playoffs, since they have a D-II win on their schedule (Minn-Duluth). Same with 4-3 Delaware, who would have to run the table to get to the playoffs (they played D-II West Chester). Basically, you can't just look at W/L records and know instantly whether you're in or out.

So I'd like to know, of the power conferences (Big Sky, A-10, SoCon, Gateway), who is still eligible for an at-large bid, and how many D-I wins would they need to make consideration?


Regarding the Big Sky Conference:
Right now Portland State sits atop the conference standings with a 3-1 conference record. The Vikings, along with the Grizzlies, control their destiny for the automatic bid. The Griz, Bobcats are both 2-1. The Eagles are 2-2. Theoretically, all four teams have shots at the playoffs (and even the automatic bid). One thing is for certain, each week has huge games and November promises to be an exciting one.

[skinny_uncle]

It could hurt some schools who had games cancelled by Hurrican Katrina couldn't it? Similar things could happen in the future. That is the only problem I have with the rule.

[skinny_uncle]

Someone had made a thread showing how many more games teams could lose to still be eligible, can't seem to find it though
wins needed (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4582)

[AppGuy04]

thanks skinny, thats what i was looking for

[Lehigh Football Nation]

wins needed (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4582)

Thanks for the link. The playoff selection committee will have some awfully interesting decisions to make the Sunday before Thanksgiving which will involve the "third-placed teams in the power conferences" versus "the at-large qualifiers of the non-power conferences".

(This is not comprehensive - I'm too lazy to pursue this further - please add any I am missing.)

Possible 7-4 "power" teams with 2 I-A losses:
App St.
Portland St.

Possible 7-4 "power" teams with 1 I-A loss and 0 non-D-I wins:
UMass
William & Mary
Richmond

Possible 8-3 "non-power" teams with 1 I-A loss:
Eastern Illinois

Possible 9-2 (or above) "non-power" teams with 0 I-A losses:
Coastal Carolina
Lehigh
South Carolina St.

I think everyone can see what I'm getting at. To me, a 9-2 Lehigh or 10-1 Coastal now is competing against a possible 7-4 team like App St. or Portland St. with a brutal schedule, whereas last year they make it in with ease. Personally I think if it's a competition between a 9-2 Lehigh at large versus a 7-4 App St. at-large, Lehigh loses that argument. However... what about a 7-4 Richmond (with a I-A loss) or 7-4 Georgia Southern team (with 0 I-A losses)? Where's the dividing line?

With the new rule, I cannot handicap Lehigh's playoff chances with any degree of accuracy since the pool of "7 D-I Wins" teams is significantly larger than the old "no more than 3 losses" teams. Also, these teams vary in degree from super-strong (App St.) to fairly borderline (GSU).

[GSU Eagle]

A 7-4 Appalachian gets in over a 7-4 Georgia Southern if it comes down to that.

The SoCon will IMO definitely get 2 teams in this year and maybe a 3rd. I would like to say the Eagles could get some consideration at 7-4 but it won't happen. We have to win out and finish 8-3 to get in. I think the team, the coaches and anyone close to GSU knows that.

If Furman somehow loses to GSU and either Wofford or Chattanooga and finishes at 8-3 it could be dicey because that would give them 3 conference losses. In that scenario I doubt they get in. But I don't expect Furman to lose to either Wofford or Chattanooga.

The best argument for a SoCon team getting in at 7-4 is Appalachian. They have played 2 1A games, and one has to take that into consideration.

Last thought-- I believe the 7 win criteria is better than the "no more than 3 loss criteria." What is does is discourage teams from playing nobodies from NAIA, D2 or whatever. It also rewards a potential 7-4 team who has played 1 or maybe even 2 1A teams.

[Black and Gold Express]

I think if it's a competition between a 9-2 Lehigh at large versus a 7-4 App St. at-large, Lehigh loses that argument.

I disagree completely, and I'll tell you why. That 4th loss would be a bad loss. It would be to a definite non-playoff team and come late in the year. Those are historically two death knells for borderline teams, which any 7-4 team would then be.

IMO, Lehigh gets the nod in this scenario.

[TypicalTribe]

I disagree completely, and I'll tell you why. That 4th loss would be a bad loss. It would be to a definite non-playoff team and come late in the year. Those are historically two death knells for borderline teams, which any 7-4 team would then be.

IMO, Lehigh gets the nod in this scenario.

Of course, Lehigh at 9-2 would be Patiot League champion

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Of course, Lehigh at 9-2 would be Patiot League champion

Not necessarily. If Lehigh and Holy Cross win out, there would be a tie at the top of the standings with a 5-1 conference record, with Holy Cross winning the autobid based on head-to-head matchup.

This is one of the reasons why I'm so interested. I think this has a chance of happening.

[AppGuy04]

i honestly don't think App will be 7-4, but thats another thing

if they do go 7-4, i'd have to agree that they would be out due to the last loss coming at the most inoportune time and also would be a horendous team

[JALMOND]

I disagree completely, and I'll tell you why. That 4th loss would be a bad loss. It would be to a definite non-playoff team and come late in the year. Those are historically two death knells for borderline teams, which any 7-4 team would then be.

IMO, Lehigh gets the nod in this scenario.

Replace App St with Portland State, another team that could finish 7-4 with 2 I-A losses. If we were to lose this weekend to Montana, our four losses would be at Corvallis, OR (I-A loss), Boise, ID (another I-A loss), Cheney, WA (EWU, I-AA loss) and Missoula, MT (UM, another I-AA loss). Where is our "bad" loss? Montana? EWU?

Lehigh would have 2 I-AA losses and we would have 2 I-AA losses. I'd say it would be difficult (but yes, possible) for Lehigh to get in over PSU.

[TypicalTribe]

Not necessarily. If Lehigh and Holy Cross win out, there would be a tie at the top of the standings with a 5-1 conference record, with Holy Cross winning the autobid based on head-to-head matchup.

This is one of the reasons why I'm so interested. I think this has a chance of happening.

I would be surprised if a co-champion Lehigh team was left out at 9-2.

[HensRock]

I would be surprised if a co-champion Lehigh team was left out at 9-2.

I would not. They will be 9-2 against a slate which includes ZERO ranked teams.

[TypicalTribe]

I would not. They will be 9-2 against a slate which includes ZERO ranked teams.

That's all well and good, but they would have won their last six games, including wins at Colgate and against Lafayette. Plus, they would be ranked close to, if not in, the top 10 in all three polls. Plus, considering how well they have represented themselves in the playoffs, the committee seems to like them.

[Cincy App]

Replace App St with Portland State, another team that could finish 7-4 with 2 I-A losses. If we were to lose this weekend to Montana, our four losses would be at Corvallis, OR (I-A loss), Boise, ID (another I-A loss), Cheney, WA (EWU, I-AA loss) and Missoula, MT (UM, another I-AA loss). Where is our "bad" loss? Montana? EWU?

Lehigh would have 2 I-AA losses and we would have 2 I-AA losses. I'd say it would be difficult (but yes, possible) for Lehigh to get in over PSU.

It will definitely be interesting if Appalachian, Portland St or Montana St finish the year at 7-4. All three have played very challenging schedules. Still, I'm not optimistic that old habits will be immediately broken. I expect that a qualified 7-4 team will stay home - regardless of what power indexes such as the GPI show. I look forward to see how this plays out. Just hope ASU finishes at 8-3 to avoid the Selection Day anxiety!

[AppGuy04]

Just hope ASU finishes at 8-3 to avoid the Selection Day anxiety!

With out playoff drought, I don't see any let down coming in the near future, save LSU ofcourse, but then again, thats not a let down

[TypicalTribe]

It will definitely be interesting if Appalachian, Portland St or Montana St finish the year at 7-4. All three have played very challenging schedules. Still, I'm not optimistic that old habits will be immediately broken. I expect that a qualified 7-4 team will stay home - regardless of what power indexes such as the GPI show. I look forward to see how this plays out. Just hope ASU finishes at 8-3 to avoid the Selection Day anxiety!

The nightmare scenario is wondering what the committee will do if forced to choose between one of the 7-4 teams you describe above and a 9-2 SCSU team out of the MEAC.

[JALMOND]

It will definitely be interesting if Appalachian, Portland St or Montana St finish the year at 7-4. All three have played very challenging schedules. Still, I'm not optimistic that old habits will be immediately broken. I expect that a qualified 7-4 team will stay home - regardless of what power indexes such as the GPI show. I look forward to see how this plays out. Just hope ASU finishes at 8-3 to avoid the Selection Day anxiety!

Playoff scenarios certainly make for strange bedfellows. Imagine, for instance, that Coastal gets an at-large and App State does not. All the threads here between the two...geez!

[HensRock]

I took Duke Dog's list of teams that are still technically not eliminated and evaluated their remaining schedules. I then calculated rough odds of winning each of their remaining games and generated the overall odds of each team reaching the 7 or more wins required for playoff eligibility. NOTE: These are not what I feel the odds of teams making the playoffs are - they are simply odds of finishing the regular season with 7+ wins. I think some exceptions should be made for Southland teams like McNeese who have missing several games. (The number in parens is the # of losses they would need to be eliminated) If you are interested in the odds I gave on individual games or schedules, just ask.

100.00% Hampton
100.00% Furman
99.97% Coastal Carolina (3)
99.55% New Hampshire (4)
98.20% Massachusetts (4)
90.40% Eastern Illinois (3)
88.00% Youngstown State (3)
86.40% Illinois State (2)
86.00% Lehigh (2)
86.00% Colgate (3)
83.00% Cal Poly (3)
79.74% Appalachian State (3)
78.08% South Carolina State (2)
76.25% Western Kentucky (3)
76.25% Lafayette (3)
76.00% William & Mary (3)
75.00% Georgia Southern (2)
70.00% Holy Cross (2)
60.80% Montana (2)
56.00% Montana State (2)
55.20% Portland State (2)
51.80% Texas State (2)
47.00% Richmond (2)
38.75% Southern Illinois (2)
34.30% Eastern Kentucky (1)
34.20% Chattanooga (2)
28.00% Jacksonville State (1)
25.56% Hofstra (2)
23.00% Bethune-Cookman (2)
12.25% James Madison (1)
12.25% Northwestern State (1)
12.00% Rhode Island (1)
10.80% Delaware State (1)
10.00% Eastern Washington (1)
8.00% Towson (1)
7.20% Wofford (1)
6.72% Idaho State (1)
5.04% Delaware (1)
4.80% McNeese State (1)
3.60% Stephen F. Austin (1)
2.80% Georgetown (1)
2.52% Northern Iowa (1)
2.40% Villanova (1)
2.40% Howard (1)