Top 10 best and longest FCS over FBS shots

[JohnStOnge]

I don't know what the rules are about posting lines and such so I won't post the actual lines and reference the offshore betting site I got the information from, but I'll indicate that the information suggests that the top 10 best FCS shots for beating FBS this weekend are (in order from best shot to least best shot):

James Madison at Duke
Cal Poly at San Diego State
South Dakota State at Iowa State
UC Davis at San Jose State
Illinois State at Marshall
McNeese State at North Carolina
Delaware at Maryland
Northeastern at Ball State
Western Illinois at Arkansas
Grambling at Nevada

The 10 biggest mismatches according to that information source (longest shot to less longer shot) are:

Tennessee Chattanooga at Oklahoma
Idaho State at Boise State
UT Martin at South Florida
Coastal Carolina at Penn State
Indiana State at Eastern Michigan
Charleston Southern at Miami
Villanova at West Virginia
Eastern Washington at Texas Tech
Youngstown State at Ohio State
Eastern Kentucky at Cinncinnati

Let me know if I got some of the matchups wrong. When I put it into a spreadsheet I just used initials so it's possible there are some errors in translating back to the full names. And it's all as of right now, of course. As you know, things could change some as the games approach.

None of the FCS teams are favorites, though JMU is close.

[aust42]

Delaware is a lock at +16.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I'd add North Dakota State and Wyoming to the first list.
UT Martin and USF should be on neither list, IMO.

[813Jag]

I'd add North Dakota State and Wyoming to the first list.
UT Martin and USF should be on neither list, IMO.
What does Martin return? USF should be as good or better than last season.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

What does Martin return? USF should be as good or better than last season.

Yeah, and they weren't that impressive last year. I know UTM isn't great but I wouldn't put it in the most mismatched FCS-FBS games.

[813Jag]

Yeah, and they weren't that impressive last year. I know UTM isn't great but I wouldn't put it in the most mismatched FCS-FBS games.
In their loses they were horrible. Grothe tried to do too much, but in their wins they were pretty good. Especially against UCF and West Virginia.

[JohnStOnge]

I'd add North Dakota State and Wyoming to the first list..

That's just the opening week list. NDSU doesn't play Wyoming until September 13.

[BarefootApp]

Maybe I have overlooked something, but where is ASU vs. LSU? Thanks.

[JohnStOnge]

Yeah, and they weren't that impressive last year. I know UTM isn't great but I wouldn't put it in the most mismatched FCS-FBS games.

Remember, UT Martin was 4-7 last season and gave up an average of 30 points per game. South Florida's had two 9-4 seasons in a row. They beat Auburn and West Virginia last year.

[JohnStOnge]

I missed something...there is a tie for the 10th biggest mismatch between Eastern Kentucky at Cinncinati and Northern Arizona at Arizona State.

[FCS Go!]

Maybe I have overlooked something, but where is ASU vs. LSU? Thanks.

These are ten best & 10 worst. App is in the middle- not a good chance at winning but they shouldn't get annihilated either.

[Husky Alum]

Ball State's offense is WAY too high powered for NU's young secondary. You've got an excellent QB going against a bunch of freshmen and sophomores.

If NU holds Ball State under 42 points, I'll consider it a moral victory.

That being said, Ball State's defense is suspect, and they've had trouble stopping the run. NU has a veteran O-Line, and they may put up some points.

I'm thinking something like 52-21 Cardinals.

I'll be at the game, so it should be interesting.

[JohnStOnge]

Maybe I have overlooked something, but where is ASU vs. LSU? Thanks.

App State is in the middle at 15th biggest underdog. I guess I could've used less space and just listed them all in order of smallest underdog to biggest underdog. If I do that it goes like this:

1. James Madison at Duke
2. Cal Poly at San Diego State
3. South Dakota State at Iowa State
4. UC Davis at San Jose State
5. Illinois State at Marshall
6. McNeese State at North Carolina
7. Delaware at Maryland
8. Northeastern at Ball State
9. Western Illinois at Arkansas (tie)
9. Grambling at Nevada (tie)
11. Northern Iowa at BYU
12. Eastern Illinois at Central Michigan (tie)
12. Maine at Iowa (tie)
14. Towson at Navy
15. Appalachian State at LSU
16. Jacksonville State at Georgia Tech (tie)
16. South Carolina State at Central Florida (tie)
18. Hostra at UConn (tie)
18. Southern at Houston (tie)
20. Southern Utah at Air Force
21. Eastern Kentucky at Cincinnati (tie)
21. Northern Arizona at Arizona State (tie)
23. Youngstown State at Ohio State
24. Villanova at West Virginia
24. Eastern Washington at Texas Tech
26. Indiana State at Eastern Michigan
27. Charleston Southern at Miami
28. UT Martin at South Florida
29. Coastal Carolina at Penn State
30. Idaho State at Boise State
31. Tennessee Chattnooga at Oklahoma

[Ronbo]

James Madison at Duke (win)
Cal Poly at San Diego State (loss)
South Dakota State at Iowa State (loss)
UC Davis at San Jose State (loss)
Illinois State at Marshall (loss)
McNeese State at North Carolina (loss)
Delaware at Maryland (loss)
Northeastern at Ball State (loss)
Western Illinois at Arkansas (loss)
Grambling at Nevada (loss big)

[thmst30]

JMU shouldn't be an underdog. Duke being FBS is the only reason. If Duke played in the FCS JMU would be favored easily.

[skinny_uncle]

A win over Duke would be no shock. I don't even think you could call it an "upset".

[McTailGator]

Maybe I have overlooked something, but where is ASU vs. LSU? Thanks.


I don't think you guy's fall into either category. Odds of a win vs LSU are no in ASU's favor IMO.

That said, I don't think you guys or a top 10 mis-match to get beat badly either.

I do believe AppSt will cover the line IMO. I think it will be a good game, which kicks you out of both of Johns lists..

[UCAMonkey]

James Madison at Duke (win)
Cal Poly at San Diego State (loss)
South Dakota State at Iowa State (loss)
UC Davis at San Jose State (loss)
Illinois State at Marshall (loss)
McNeese State at North Carolina (loss)
Delaware at Maryland (loss)
Northeastern at Ball State (loss)
Western Illinois at Arkansas (loss)
Grambling at Nevada (loss big)

I think the teams in bold are most likely to win than the others.

[Jackman]

Where's New Hampshire at Army? No line?

EDIT: Nevermind, didn't realize they don't open this week.

[Ronbo]

I think the teams in bold are most likely to win than the others.

James Madison at Duke (win)

Cal Poly at San Diego State (loss) San Diego State has a bone to pick with Cal Poly.

South Dakota State at Iowa State (loss) I don't think SDSU has enough firepower to do it.

UC Davis at San Jose State (loss) SJSU beats their FCS opponent every year. Davis isn't the team they were a couple years ago.

Illinois State at Marshall (loss) This one is a mystery to me. ISU is picked way down in the MVFC. How bad can Marshall be?

[slostang]

James Madison at Duke (win)
Cal Poly at San Diego State (loss)
South Dakota State at Iowa State (loss)
UC Davis at San Jose State (loss)
Illinois State at Marshall (loss)
McNeese State at North Carolina (loss)
Delaware at Maryland (loss)
Northeastern at Ball State (loss)
Western Illinois at Arkansas (loss)
Grambling at Nevada (loss big)

You were probably saying the same thing two years ago before Cal Poly beat San Diego State. The 2008 Cal Poly team "should" be a lot better than the 2006 Cal Poly team. You are hearing things like the best ever when people are talking about the 2008 Mustangs. Cal Poly's offense was ranked about 50th in the nation in 2006. In 2008 they return 10 starters off an offense that led the nation in yardage (487 yds/gm) and was 6th in scoring (39.3 pts/gm).

As a Montana fan should be hoping for a win by Cal Poly over San Diego State. If they lose to San Diego State you can bet they will be that much more focused on beating Montana the second week to keep from starting the season 0-2. I think that Cal Poly has a great chance to start the season 2-0.

Will you be there on Sept. 6th Ronbo?

[Retro]

The one's in bold are the one's i think the FCS are objectively better.. The ones in italics are more like 50/50 and the rest are long shots!


1. James Madison at Duke
2. Cal Poly at San Diego State
3. South Dakota State at Iowa State
4. UC Davis at San Jose State
5. Illinois State at Marshall
6. McNeese State at North Carolina
7. Delaware at Maryland
8. Northeastern at Ball State
9. Western Illinois at Arkansas (tie)
9. Grambling at Nevada (tie)
11. Northern Iowa at BYU
12. Eastern Illinois at Central Michigan (tie)
12. Maine at Iowa (tie)
14. Towson at Navy
15. Appalachian State at LSU
16. Jacksonville State at Georgia Tech (tie)
16. South Carolina State at Central Florida (tie)
18. Hostra at UConn (tie)
18. Southern at Houston (tie)
20. Southern Utah at Air Force
21. Eastern Kentucky at Cincinnati (tie)
21. Northern Arizona at Arizona State (tie)
23. Youngstown State at Ohio State
24. Villanova at West Virginia
24. Eastern Washington at Texas Tech
26. Indiana State at Eastern Michigan
27. Charleston Southern at Miami
28. UT Martin at South Florida
29. Coastal Carolina at Penn State
30. Idaho State at Boise State
31. Tennessee Chattnooga at Oklahoma

[Ronbo]

You were probably saying the same thing two years ago before Cal Poly beat San Diego State. The 2008 Cal Poly team "should" be a lot better than the 2006 Cal Poly team. You are hearing things like the best ever when people are talking about the 2008 Mustangs. Cal Poly's offense was ranked about 50th in the nation in 2006. In 2008 they return 10 starters off an offense that led the nation in yardage (487 yds/gm) and was 6th in scoring (39.3 pts/gm).

As a Montana fan should be hoping for a win by Cal Poly over San Diego State. If they lose to San Diego State you can bet they will be that much more focused on beating Montana the second week to keep from starting the season 0-2. I think that Cal Poly has a great chance to start the season 2-0.

Will you be there on Sept. 6th Ronbo?

The only reason I pick them this year is because of that game in 2006. They have the game circled and have been anxiously awaiting Cal Poly for two years. I never underestimate the power of revenge.

I do hope you beat them but it looks like San Diego State's Defense against your Offense. They have 8 starters back on Defense. I think it will be close.

Have relative in Missoula visiting the week of the Cal Poly game so I won't be there but I'll be watching on TV.

[CID1990]

Guess nobody thinks The Citadel at Florida or The Citadel at clempson are major mismatches.

[slostang]

The only reason I pick them this year is because of that game in 2006. They have the game circled and have been anxiously awaiting Cal Poly for two years. I never underestimate the power of revenge.

I do hope you beat them but it looks like San Diego State's Defense against your Offense. They have 8 starters back on Defense. I think it will be close.

Have relative in Missoula visiting the week of the Cal Poly game so I won't be there but I'll be watching on TV.

I would have liked to have talked to football over a few cold ones. Maybe next year in Missoula.

[Hoyadestroya85]

villanova shouldn't be on the bottom list.. that game will be closer than people think

[JohnStOnge]

Guess nobody thinks The Citadel at Florida or The Citadel at clempson are major mismatches.

They might. We'll have to see what people are saying during the weeks prior to when they play.

[Cobblestone]

I think UNH has a good chance of beating Army.

I'd have to say we're probably a long shot to beat Boston College.

[CID1990]

They might. We'll have to see what people are saying during the weeks prior to when they play.

I think that we didn't fit into the list of 'closest' matchups, nor did we fit into the list of biggest mismatches. Guess we are somewhere bewteen the two.

[MSUBear42]

"Western Illinois at Arkansas" Umm... I dont think so.


Illinois state lost a lot Im pretty sure

[TexasTerror]

Where is Nicholls State games against New Mexico State and Memphis? Got to figure the option and the fact Nicholls beat Rice last year, somewhere...throw in the fact NMST barely beat a bad UAPB team!

[813Jag]

Where is Nicholls State games against New Mexico State and Memphis? Got to figure the option and the fact Nicholls beat Rice last year, somewhere...throw in the fact NMST barely beat a bad UAPB team!
This is for week 1 matchups. Nicholls plays NMSU on 9/4.

[JohnStOnge]

"Western Illinois at Arkansas" Umm... I dont think so.

Remember that it's relative. The spread for that game was tied for 9th "smallest" among those for the FCS/FBS matchups this week but it was still fairly large.

Aside from that, to me it's interesting that I heard some local (Baton Rouge) radio talk show guys talking about the SEC this past week and they were saying Arkansas is expected to be down in 2008. They said they'd be "this year's Ole Miss." They were picked to finish last in the SEC West at SEC media days (see http://www.razorbloggers.net/index.php/2008/07/hogs-picked-to-finish-last-by-sec-media/ ).

What the heck, hopefully I'm safe in posting a link to where I got the information so people can see the details of what I'm talking about:

http://www.betus.com/sportsbook/college1aa-football-lines.aspx

[bobbythekidd]

GSU plays UGA on Saturday. I don't see that game listed.

[JohnStOnge]

GSU plays UGA on Saturday. I don't see that game listed.

Yeah. I hadn't noticed that but I don't see it listed among the matchups at the web page I used. Don't know what the deal is. Wonder what other games, if any, are missing.

[Millwoch]

Guess nobody thinks The Citadel at Florida or The Citadel at clempson are major mismatches.


they are just talking about this weeks vegas lines. It will be interesting to see where our line will be next week.

[griz&beer]

There is now way Grambling will beat UN no way. Wolf Pack by 21 or more. Eastern WA has a shot at TX Tech, and Tech is going to be good this year.

[Mountain Panther]

I don't know what the rules are about posting lines and such so I won't post the actual lines and reference the offshore betting site I got the information from, but I'll indicate that the information suggests that the top 10 best FCS shots for beating FBS this weekend are (in order from best shot to least best shot):

James Madison at Duke
Cal Poly at San Diego State
South Dakota State at Iowa State
UC Davis at San Jose State
Illinois State at Marshall
McNeese State at North Carolina
Delaware at Maryland
Northeastern at Ball State
Western Illinois at Arkansas
Grambling at Nevada

The 10 biggest mismatches according to that information source (longest shot to less longer shot) are:

Tennessee Chattanooga at Oklahoma
Idaho State at Boise State
UT Martin at South Florida
Coastal Carolina at Penn State
Indiana State at Eastern Michigan
Charleston Southern at Miami
Villanova at West Virginia
Eastern Washington at Texas Tech
Youngstown State at Ohio State
Eastern Kentucky at Cinncinnati

Let me know if I got some of the matchups wrong. When I put it into a spreadsheet I just used initials so it's possible there are some errors in translating back to the full names. And it's all as of right now, of course. As you know, things could change some as the games approach.

None of the FCS teams are favorites, though JMU is close.

I'm actually please that UNI/BYU isn't in either one of those lists!

[PantherRob82]

Yeah, and they weren't that impressive last year. I know UTM isn't great but I wouldn't put it in the most mismatched FCS-FBS games.

USF will ROLL.

[JohnStOnge]

I'm actually please that UNI/BYU isn't in either one of those lists!

Barely. At the time I looked at the lines UNI was considered the 11th best shot for an FCS win.

[appfan2008]

I am glad to see asu/lsu on neither list... it means expectations arent toooo high and they realize we are formidable even against the defending fbs champion

[ASU]

I just cannot believe that JMU beating Duke would be an upset to anyone.

[JohnStOnge]

I just cannot believe that JMU beating Duke would be an upset to anyone.

Looking at the spread they have I think JMU would be the favorite if the Dukes were playing at home.

[already123]

I like our chances against ASU

[UCAMonkey]

I just cannot believe that JMU beating Duke would be an upset to anyone.


I don't consider it so much as an upset as a toss up. I am really surprised Duke would schedule a great FCS program like JMU. xthumbsupx

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I just cannot believe that JMU beating Duke would be an upset to anyone.

Not to anyone who truly understands D-I college football. :)

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I don't consider it so much as an upset as a toss up. I am really surprised Duke would schedule a great FCS program like JMU. xthumbsupx

Maybe Duke knew that JMU would bring more fans than a MAC, C-USA, Big West, etc. team?

I don't know the Duke OOC scheduling history but I know they played (and lost) to Richmond a couple of years ago. Maybe they just like playing regional FCS schools? Have they recently played or scheduled a future game with William & Mary, Furman, Wofford, El Cid, etc.?

[08Dawg]

Very surprised we're not on their vs Florida. vs Clemson, I give us an outside shot, just because it's bragging rights and the Tigers have a habit of imploding in improbably situations. But Florida? Tebow may have been stopped by Michigan last year, but we're going to get rolled in Gainesville.

[EmeryZach]

The JMU vs. Duke game won't even be close. JMU is going to blow them out. I would be shocked if Duke could even keep it within 14.