Name your 16 Playoff Teams/seeds/ matchups

[yosefcity]

Name your 16 Playoff Teams/seeds/ matchups for me. I need to get a good idea of some of the leagues I don't follow before I make my predictions.

[JMU Duke Dog]

There is still a lot of football to be played for me to decide on 16 teams. But if anyone wants to give it an unbiased shot and base it alone on merits then here are some teams you can consider that still have a shot at playoff eligibility. http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4582

[JALMOND]

Seeds/ matchups are for the selection committee.
As of last week according to the GPI (*=highest ranked teams from an autobid conference):
*E Illinois
*Lehigh
*New Hampshire
*W Kentucky
*Appalachian St
*Texas St
*Montana
*Hampton
Cal Poly
Massachusetts
James Madison
Furman
E Washington
Youngstown St
McNeese St
William & Mary

Some on the bubble:
Montana St
Portland St
Coastal Car
Illinois St
Ga Southern
N Iowa
Hofstra
S Carolina St

Interesting. My opinion, I'd say this week JMU, EWU and McNeese might be on the bubble now, replaced by Illinois St, Ga Southern and Montana St or Portland St. This late in the season and it is still muddled.

[yosefcity]

Ok here we go.

Here are mine with the auto bid confrence champs in brackets.
Bracket Side 1
Coastal Carolina@
#1 UMASS (A10)

Portland State@
Cal Poly

Georgia Southern (SoCon)
#4 Hampton (MEAC)

William and Mary@
WKU (Gateway)

Bracket Side 2
Colgate (Patriot)@
#3 App State (SoCon)

Youngstown State@
Furman

Texas State@
UNH

Eastern Illinois (OVC)@
#2Montana (Big Sky)

[ASU Kep]

mmm...Furman in the second round...in Boone...I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that it'd come down to the final play...in 8OT.

[DaGriz]

Portland State@Cal Poly

It would be interesting if Cal Poly got in with two losses this year after getting rejected last year with 2 losses. They deserve it though, especially if they win out. Tough road ahead considering they lost the QB.

[yosefcity]

I think Cal Poly will get in. The NCAA will realize they screwed them last year and put them in.

[Obzerver]

Cal Poly still has to play UC Davis, Eastern Washington, So. Utah and Idaho State. Will three losses or four losses get them in??

[Toppermaniac]

Ok here we go.

Here are mine with the auto bid confrence champs in brackets.
Bracket Side 1
Coastal Carolina@
#1 UMASS (A10)

Portland State@
Cal Poly

Georgia Southern (SoCon)
#4 Hampton (MEAC)

William and Mary@
WKU (Gateway)

Bracket Side 2
Colgate (Patriot)@
#3 App State (SoCon)

Youngstown State@
Furman

Texas State@
UNH

Eastern Illinois (OVC)@
#2Montana (Big Sky)


Just what have you been smoking?

You can't realistically say that WKU isn't a top 4 seed at this point. Hell, they're only the # 1 ranked team in the country. A lot can change in the next 4 weeks, but please, put down the pipe and get yourself straightened out.

[ASU Kep]

Cal Poly = lock w/ 2 losses. Perhaps 3. They might be down, but their final three games are at home. If they can stop Eastern Washington in two weeks, they'll be right back in the thick of things. UC Davis beat Stanford, but doesn't play like it anymore. Losing to Montana at Montana is like losing to good ol' Appy in Boone. It sucks, sure, but it's no dishonor...Montana had won 16 in a row until...Eastern Washington! Uh oh...

[yosefcity]

WKU came out to be my 5th team overall due to several factors. Number one is that you have two game left that i think you might struggle in. I weighted heavily the sagarin ratings along with SOS and league strength. Plus I don't put alot in the polls that you speak of. When they have ASU out of the top 15 and CCU ahead of App, they are wrong.

[Tribe4SF]

WKU came out to be my 5th team overall due to several factors. Number one is that you have two game left that i think you might struggle in. I weighted heavily the sagarin ratings along with SOS and league strength. Plus I don't put alot in the polls that you speak of. When they have ASU out of the top 15 and CCU ahead of App, they are wrong.

If you did as you say, Hampton would not be a seed.

[Toppermaniac]

WKU came out to be my 5th team overall due to several factors. Number one is that you have two game left that i think you might struggle in. I weighted heavily the sagarin ratings along with SOS and league strength. Plus I don't put alot in the polls that you speak of. When they have ASU out of the top 15 and CCU ahead of App, they are wrong.

Ah, I see. So, your picks are based on perceived biases against YOUR team. That's pretty funny and doesn't give you a lot of credibility. Also, aren't these so-called playoff teams at this point based on where he teams are at this time? Otherwise, trying to pick the 16 playoff teams with 4 weeks left seems a bit ridiculous. Every team in the running could lose one or more games over the next month. Seems to me that the only way to look at possible playoff teams right now is to look at them as they are and not how they could end up a month down the road. Just my 2 cents.

[Toppermaniac]

Ah, I see. So, your picks are based on perceived biases against YOUR team. That's pretty funny and doesn't give you a lot of credibility. Also, aren't these so-called playoff teams at this point based on where he teams are at this time? Otherwise, trying to pick the 16 playoff teams with 4 weeks left seems a bit ridiculous. Every team in the running could lose one or more games over the next month. Seems to me that the only way to look at possible playoff teams right now is to look at them as they are and not how they could end up a month down the road. Just my 2 cents.

By the way, if your figuring in strength of schedule, I'd have to think WKU fares pretty well there. Much more so than App. State since the Gateway is considerably tougher top to bottom than the SoCon.

[Toppermaniac]

WKU came out to be my 5th team overall due to several factors. Number one is that you have two game left that i think you might struggle in. I weighted heavily the sagarin ratings along with SOS and league strength. Plus I don't put alot in the polls that you speak of. When they have ASU out of the top 15 and CCU ahead of App, they are wrong.


One more thing while on the topic. You factored in the fact that you "think" WKU might struggle in a couple of their remaining games? Well then, you'd better get some money down on those two games right away. Hell, I "think" a lot of things could happen. I think App. St. might get beat by GSU. I think WKU will run the table and end up 10-1. However, it could very well be that neigher of these two things come to pass. The question is, what do you think about the playoff situation right now? We can talk about the situation again in 4 weeks after the final regular season games.

[Toppermaniac]

Made a mistake in an earlier post. Thought you still had to play GSU. Didn't realize it was LSU you had to play. Just a little bit tougher.

[yosefcity]

My predictions were not based on my team or the SoCon. It was a unbias report. However I did use my teams performance to make the polls look bad. The polls are bogus IMO and thats what I used App to expose. Not the predictions. If I moved WKU up and made Hampton the 5 and you the 4 would you be happier. I think you would rather host William and Mary than Georgia Southern. Thats what would happen if I switched the 2 of you.

[Toppermaniac]

My predictions were not based on my team or the SoCon. It was a unbias report. However I did use my teams performance to make the polls look bad. The polls are bogus IMO and thats what I used App to expose. Not the predictions. If I moved WKU up and made Hampton the 5 and you the 4 would you be happier. I think you would rather host William and Mary than Georgia Southern. Thats what would happen if I switched the 2 of you.


What I want is to not get screwed again this year and be sent on the road the first week because of the size of a bid. Obviously if we were to be so fortunate to win out (I'm certainly not saying we will because we have a brutal schedule remaining), we should be he # 1 seed and be at home throughout the playoffs as long as we win. That is what I really want. If we were to lose one game, we could still very easily get one of the 4 seeds. It all depends on what everyone else does. Frankly, I don't care who we play in the playoffs.

[Black and Gold Express]

By the way, if your figuring in strength of schedule, I'd have to think WKU fares pretty well there. Much more so than App. State since the Gateway is considerably tougher top to bottom than the SoCon.

GPI doesn't think so...

[SuperEagle]

hey topper, instead of whining about another posters projected playoff matchups, why don't you simply answer his question and provide a list of your own matchups. he's just one fan giving a list of who he thinks should be there. where's your list?

[89Hen]

Here's why I refuse to do this exercise yet....

SIU/WKU
SIU/UNI
UNI/YSU
UNI/WKU
WKU/YSU

Montana/PSU
Montana/MSU
EWU/MSU

GSU/FU

UMass/UNH
UMass/UD
W&M/JMU
JMU/UR
UR/W&M

Lehigh/Colgate
Lehigh/Lafayette
Colgate/Lafayette

TxSt vs Nicholls, McNeese, SFA and SHSU

EIU vs the entire state of Tennessee and JSU

[TypicalTribe]

If the field was being chosen as of today, I'd go with the following:

CCU at Furman (#2)
W&M at Hampton

PSU at Texas State (#4)
Cal Poly at Montana

Colgate at UMass (#3)
UNH at ASU

EIU at WKU (#1)
Lehigh at YSU

[Toppermaniac]

89Hen, that's pretty much my thinking. If you're going to put up your playoff matchups as of today, you've got to look at the teams as they stand right now. Why? Because there are so many games left, many of which matchup potential playoff teams. Today's landscape may not remotely resemble what we see in 4 weeks. Frankly, once you get past the top 6-8 teams right now, there's no telling what the playoffs would look like. That's why I'm not gonna bother.

[Catmendue2]

If the field was being chosen as of today, I'd go with the following:

CCU at Furman (#2)
W&M at Hampton

PSU at Texas State (#4)
Cal Poly at Montana

Colgate at UMass (#3)
UNH at ASU

EIU at WKU (#1)
Lehigh at YSU


You are correct IMHO. This is just how I see it.

[colgate13]

You are correct IMHO. This is just how I see it.

While I'd love it personally, can those of you that think both Colgate and Lehigh will make it give reasons? Particularly why the PL will get an at large bid at 8-3 compared to other 8-3 teams in the land?

[TypicalTribe]

While I'd love it personally, can those of you that think both Colgate and Lehigh will make it give reasons? Particularly why the PL will get an at large bid at 8-3 compared to other 8-3 teams in the land?

As I said, my picks were based on the season to date, not a projection for the end of the season. As such, I had Colgate, fresh off the Holy Cross win, as the Patriot auto-bid. On top of that, Lehigh gets enough respect in the polls and from the committee that I thought they could get an at-large. Also, I thought the Lehigh/YSU matchup would be a great regional one.

[colgate13]

As I said, my picks were based on the season to date, not a projection for the end of the season. As such, I had Colgate, fresh off the Holy Cross win, as the Patriot auto-bid. On top of that, Lehigh gets enough respect in the polls and from the committee that I thought they could get an at-large. Also, I thought the Lehigh/YSU matchup would be a great regional one.

I agree... But I also see an 8-3 at-large Lehigh with their best wins as Lafayette and Harvard being a huge topic of controversy!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I agree... But I also see an 8-3 at-large Lehigh with their best wins as Lafayette and Harvard being a huge topic of controversy!

The only way the PL get's two teams is if Lehigh and Holy Cross tie at 5-1, HC get's the auto and Lehigh goes in as an atlarge team at 9-2. I think Lehigh's chances at an atlarge bid at 9-2 are decent, 60-40. There's alot of football to be played.

[LUHawker]

I agree... But I also see an 8-3 at-large Lehigh with their best wins as Lafayette and Harvard being a huge topic of controversy!


Ahh...good one gater 13!!! But, its more like 8-3 Colgate with their best wins as Lafayette and UMass, but losses to CCSU and DC.

[GrizFoo]

I would love to see Cal Poly in the playoffs, but after loosing their QB, I think they are going to be in a little trouble considering their schedule.

They didn't have their QB or starting RB (I think) against Troy, otherwise, whey may be in an even better position. But now without their main QB, I smell trouble.

[colgate13]

Ahh...good one gater 13!!! But, its more like 8-3 Colgate with their best wins as Lafayette and UMass, but losses to CCSU and DC.

I was only going off of the scenario that TypicalTribe gave. 8-3 Colgate does not make the playoffs IMHO.

That said, he is one smart man. I like his thinking. :D:p

[youwouldno]

By the way, if your figuring in strength of schedule, I'd have to think WKU fares pretty well there. Much more so than App. State since the Gateway is considerably tougher top to bottom than the SoCon.


Yeah, Indiana State is a good one. And Western Illinois has one win-- Northern Colorado, who is still transitioning to I-AA, at home.

[REALBird]

Well if my beloved Redbirds of Illinois State win out, I would think we would be in place for an at large bid.

With losses @ Iowa State in a game that was tied through 3 quarters, and only won by 11 pts. thanks to a late game FG by Ia. State. Loss to current #1 WKU at home in OT 37-34, and a loss at #11 YSU on the road 17-14.

Wins @ then #1 SIU (61-35, but trust me it was over after the kickoff), and at home against then #13 Northern Iowa (38-3). I would think our strength of schedule and being competitive all season would be enough to get us an at-large bid over some of the teams mentioned in this thread.

If I were a team with a relatively weak SOS, I'd be rooting against the Redbirds the rest of the season. After all, with all the stink that was made a few years ago when the GFC garnered 4 bids....I'm not sure 3 bids from one league would make some people any happier this year!

[TypicalTribe]

Well if my beloved Redbirds of Illinois State win out, I would think we would be in place for an at large bid.

With losses @ Iowa State in a game that was tied through 3 quarters, and only won by 11 pts. thanks to a late game FG by Ia. State. Loss to current #1 WKU at home in OT 37-34, and a loss at #11 YSU on the road 17-14.

Wins @ then #1 SIU (61-35, but trust me it was over after the kickoff), and at home against then #13 Northern Iowa (38-3). I would think our strength of schedule and being competitive all season would be enough to get us an at-large bid over some of the teams mentioned in this thread.

If I were a team with a relatively weak SOS, I'd be rooting against the Redbirds the rest of the season. After all, with all the stink that was made a few years ago when the GFC garnered 4 bids....I'm not sure 3 bids from one league would make some people any happier this year!

I don't think that there's any question that ISU will get in if they win out. Their schedule strength is going to take a hit the rest of the way, but they should moe up in the ranking to balance it out and should safely be in comfortable GPI territory for an at-large.

[UNHWildCats]

UMass will get there butts whalloped this weekend so they can kiss a #1 seed bye bye

[TypicalTribe]

UMass will get there butts whalloped this weekend so they can kiss a #1 seed bye bye

It's definitely a more important game for UMass in the sense that UNH should be able to get through the rest of their schedule unharmed. If UMass loses, that road stretch to finish the season becomes awfully dicey.

[windwalker]

If I were a team with a relatively weak SOS, I'd be rooting against the Redbirds the rest of the season.

Heck no... I will root for the 'Birds.. they deserve it..

[Toppermaniac]

Yeah, Indiana State is a good one. And Western Illinois has one win-- Northern Colorado, who is still transitioning to I-AA, at home.


Indians St. is weak, but WIU is not. Not a good record, but an explosive offense. The rest are all damn good. WKU, YSU, SIU, UNI, Ill. St. (playing as well as any team in the country), and MSU all all extremely tough. Records for all can't be great due to head-to-head, but all very tough. WKU also has two 1-A teams on their schedule this year. By the way, what are you talking about regarding Northern Colorado? They aren't on our schedule. You may want to check your sources.

[LUHawker]

I was only going off of the scenario that TypicalTribe gave. 8-3 Colgate does not make the playoffs IMHO.

That said, he is one smart man. I like his thinking. :D:p

Damn, all you liberal arts schools guys think alike.

[TypicalTribe]

Damn, all you liberal arts schools guys think alike.

Only way an 8-3 Colgate team goes is if they lose to Lehigh but win out after that while Holy Cross beats Lafayette and Lafayette beats Lehigh. That would leave Colgate/HC/Lafayette tied for 1st with 1 loss apiece, but Colgate will have beaten both teams so they'll get the auto-bid.

[TheValleyRaider]

Only way an 8-3 Colgate team goes is if they lose to Lehigh but win out after that while Holy Cross beats Lafayette and Lafayette beats Lehigh. That would leave Colgate/HC/Lafayette tied for 1st with 1 loss apiece, but Colgate will have beaten both teams so they'll get the auto-bid.

Also, if Colgate beats Lehigh and Lafayette these next two weeks, then splits with Bucknell/Georgetown, they'd still be the autobid at 8-3 (5-1 in the League) with their only loss being to a team they wouldn't be tied with.

With the way this season's been going, I couldn't possibly make a playoff prediction now, not with so many important conference games left. Plus, we still don't know yet how the committee will evaluate the new "at least 7 wins" requirement vs. the old "more than 3 losses", or even how they will judge the schedules of Southland teams who lost games to the hurricanes. Maybe I could piece together a bracket 2 weeks from now. Maybe.

[umassfan]

UMass will get there butts whalloped this weekend so they can kiss a #1 seed bye bye
Keep dreaming :rolleyes:

[GSUhooligan]

Here's my guess, I'm really bad at these so I'm ready to take my critiques. Bring it!

Georgia Southern @ #1 New Hampshire
UC Davis @ #4 Montana
Youngstown@ UMASS
Portland St. @ Cal Poly

Hampton @ #2 Western Kentucky
Montana St.@ #3 Texas St.
Illinois St.@ App St
William & Mary@ Furman

[Engineer91]

Here's my guess, I'm really bad at these so I'm ready to take my critiques. Bring it!

Georgia Southern @ #1 New Hampshire
UC Davis @ #4 Montana
Youngstown@ UMASS
Portland St. @ Cal Poly

Hampton @ #2 Western Kentucky
Montana St.@ #3 Texas St.
Illinois St.@ App St
William & Mary@ Furman


Patriot League does get an autobid no mater how poorly we are playing this year. ;)

[OL FU]

Here's my guess, I'm really bad at these so I'm ready to take my critiques. Bring it!

Georgia Southern @ #1 New Hampshire
UC Davis @ #4 Montana
Youngstown@ UMASS
Portland St. @ Cal Poly

Hampton @ #2 Western Kentucky
Montana St.@ #3 Texas St.
Illinois St.@ App St
William & Mary@ Furman

And I don't think UC Davis is playoff eligible due to transition to I-AA.

[89Hen]

Keep dreaming
Can we get a prediction then? Or are you going to wait until after the game?

[TypicalTribe]

Here's my guess, I'm really bad at these so I'm ready to take my critiques. Bring it!

Georgia Southern @ #1 New Hampshire
UC Davis @ #4 Montana
Youngstown@ UMASS
Portland St. @ Cal Poly

Hampton @ #2 Western Kentucky
Montana St.@ #3 Texas St.
Illinois St.@ App St
William & Mary@ Furman

Also, if Montana gets a seed, that means they will beat PSU and MSU in upcoming games and there's no way that both those teams would get in with 7-4 records. No way an undefeated Hampton team gets sent to WKU either.

[umassfan]

Can we get a prediction then? Or are you going to wait until after the game?
You know where I stand on this game and I have made predictions... just lookin in the right places instead of causing more problems... thats all you seem to do lately.

[89Hen]

You know where I stand on this game and I have made predictions... just lookin in the right places instead of causing more problems... thats all you seem to do lately.
The closest thing I've seen as a prediction from you is this trash talk...

"UNH is the most overrated team in I-AA... our defense will prove that on Sat. I see Santos throwing a couple INTs and UNH scoring no more then 14 points."

As far as causing problems, you've got that market cornered junior.

[IaaScribe]

OK, my predictions:
One note: I'm basing this on my thought that Portland State, Montana and Montana State will all finish 7-4, 5-2 in the Big Sky. In that situation, I think all three Big Sky teams get in (though precedent is shaky, since Idaho State got screwed in a similar situation. But, Montana State, Montana and NAU all made it one year as tri-champs).

Youngstown State at No. 1 New Hampshire
Eastern Illinois at Montana

Hampton at No. 4 Furman
Lafayette at Massachusetts

Montana State at No. 2 Texas State
Portland State at Cal Poly

Coastal Carolina at No. 3 Western Kentucky
William & Mary at Appalachian State

Only three teams for the A-10; only one for the Southland; only two for the Gateway and SoCon. Georgia Southern, Illinois State, James Madison all rank ahead of Coastal in the GPI, but don't make the field.

Now do you see why we're having trouble squeezing Coastal in? They need to prove it on the field Saturday. This is a huge weekend for the Chants.

[SoCon48]

OK, my predictions:
One note: I'm basing this on my thought that Portland State, Montana and Montana State will all finish 7-4, 5-2 in the Big Sky. In that situation, I think all three Big Sky teams get in (though precedent is shaky, since Idaho State got screwed in a similar situation. But, Montana State, Montana and NAU all made it one year as tri-champs).

Youngstown State at No. 1 New Hampshire
Eastern Illinois at Montana

Hampton at No. 4 Furman
Lafayette at Massachusetts

Montana State at No. 2 Texas State
Portland State at Cal Poly

Coastal Carolina at No. 3 Western Kentucky
William & Mary at Appalachian State

Only three teams for the A-10; only one for the Southland; only two for the Gateway and SoCon. Georgia Southern, Illinois State, James Madison all rank ahead of Coastal in the GPI, but don't make the field.

Now do you see why we're having trouble squeezing Coastal in? They need to prove it on the field Saturday. This is a huge weekend for the Chants.

As much as I've always liked VMI, I would never have dreamed anyone would be looking at their's as a big game. I think the Cadets have found themselves a home in the Big South.

[IaaScribe]

When you look at the rest of the schedule for Coastal (0-7 Savannah State, 1-7 Mansfield and 4-4 Chuck South, who has three wins against DIIs), if the Chanticleers don't show well against VMI Saturday, they could very well be done.

[TypicalTribe]

OK, my predictions:
One note: I'm basing this on my thought that Portland State, Montana and Montana State will all finish 7-4, 5-2 in the Big Sky. In that situation, I think all three Big Sky teams get in (though precedent is shaky, since Idaho State got screwed in a similar situation. But, Montana State, Montana and NAU all made it one year as tri-champs).

Youngstown State at No. 1 New Hampshire
Eastern Illinois at Montana

Hampton at No. 4 Furman
Lafayette at Massachusetts

Montana State at No. 2 Texas State
Portland State at Cal Poly

Coastal Carolina at No. 3 Western Kentucky
William & Mary at Appalachian State

Only three teams for the A-10; only one for the Southland; only two for the Gateway and SoCon. Georgia Southern, Illinois State, James Madison all rank ahead of Coastal in the GPI, but don't make the field.

Now do you see why we're having trouble squeezing Coastal in? They need to prove it on the field Saturday. This is a huge weekend for the Chants.

Unfortunately, the first sentence destroys the integrity of your draw. First, there is no way 3 teams at 7-4 from one conference will make the field. Second, Montana would have 3 Big Sky losses, would have lost to both MSU and PSU and would only have 7 DI wins, but they would get a home game? I don't think so. There is no way. More than likely that Illinois State would take that final slot.

Other than that, if Hampton finishes undefeated, they will get a home game. No way they get sent to a seeded team on the road.

Outside of that, the teams and matchups look pretty solid.

[TypicalTribe]

When you look at the rest of the schedule for Coastal (0-7 Savannah State, 1-7 Mansfield and 4-4 Chuck South, who has three wins against DIIs), if the Chanticleers don't show well against VMI Saturday, they could very well be done.

Frankly, I think the last 2 performances really hurt Coastal. The fact that they struggled against two sub-par opponents really dealt them a heavy blow in the eyes of a lot of people. Considering how much the next few games are going to hurt their strength of schedule, the fact that they have not made statements by convincingly beating the weaker teams is really go to hurt their perception as a legitimate at-large candidate.

[umassfan]

When you look at the rest of the schedule for Coastal (0-7 Savannah State, 1-7 Mansfield and 4-4 Chuck South, who has three wins against DIIs), if the Chanticleers don't show well against VMI Saturday, they could very well be done.
Can we trade schedules... they can have UNH, Delaware, Army, and Hofstra... we will take VMI Savannah St Mansfield and Chuck South(who the hell is Chuck South)

[IaaScribe]

Chuck South = Charleston Southern

[Paladin1aa]

Let me throw a monkey wrench in all of this.

If YSU wins out ( possible ), they will be unbeaten in I-AA ranks ( losing only to I-A Pitt) and will definitely get a seed and a home game.

And I'm betting we will bid (21,000 seating and sell-out history). They will fly up the rankings beating 3 straight ranked teams. They SHOULD be close already. ;)

[Redbird Fan 21]

OK, my predictions:
One note: I'm basing this on my thought that Portland State, Montana and Montana State will all finish 7-4, 5-2 in the Big Sky. In that situation, I think all three Big Sky teams get in (though precedent is shaky, since Idaho State got screwed in a similar situation. But, Montana State, Montana and NAU all made it one year as tri-champs).

Youngstown State at No. 1 New Hampshire
Eastern Illinois at Montana

Hampton at No. 4 Furman
Lafayette at Massachusetts

Montana State at No. 2 Texas State
Portland State at Cal Poly

Coastal Carolina at No. 3 Western Kentucky
William & Mary at Appalachian State

Only three teams for the A-10; only one for the Southland; only two for the Gateway and SoCon. Georgia Southern, Illinois State, James Madison all rank ahead of Coastal in the GPI, but don't make the field.

Now do you see why we're having trouble squeezing Coastal in? They need to prove it on the field Saturday. This is a huge weekend for the Chants.


So your you don't think that if ISU wins out (like they should), they wont get in with an 8-3 record. There losses are @(I-A) Iowa State by 11, @ YSU by 3, and vs. Western Kentucky by 3 in OT??

Along with them beating the #1 team at the time (SIU) 61-35 IN SOUTHERN, and then #13 (Northern Iowa) 38-3, it seems like they would deserve a bid. Just my thoughts but like i have said before, i don't know much about other confernces in I-AA.

[IaaScribe]

An excellent point, Redbird Fan 21, and that's why I'm thinking more and more that Coastal Carolina is not going to make the field.

There are more deserving teams than the Chanticleers.

[Redbird Fan 21]

No problem IaaScribe. I honestly don't know much about I-AA besides the Gateway so for all I know, what you said could be true. It just seemed to me that ISU would be deserving. We just need to win out. If we lose one of the next three game (home vs. Western Illinois and Indiana State and AT Missouri State) we don't deserve to make the playoffs anyways.
We just finished our tough 4 game stretch and came out 2-2 (@ YSU (loss by 3); home vs. WKY (loss by 3 in OT); @ SIU (won by 26); and home vs. UNI (won by 35). Going into that stretch i was thinking we needed to go 2-2 at worst and 3-1 would have been nice. I don't know how many people woulda thought we would have went 2-2 after losing the 1st two and having SIU and UNI left. But we got threw it and have a path set to make the playoffs (hopefully).

The game @ MSU kinda scares me because they have played well in there losses but it is still a game the I feel we would be favored heavily.

[TypicalTribe]

Let me throw a monkey wrench in all of this.

If YSU wins out ( possible ), they will be unbeaten in I-AA ranks ( losing only to I-A Pitt) and will definitely get a seed and a home game.

And I'm betting we will bid (21,000 seating and sell-out history). They will fly up the rankings beating 3 straight ranked teams. They SHOULD be close already. ;)

That's not a wrench at all. I already have them figured for a home game and if they win out and finish 10-1 with 0 I-AA losses, they will absolutely get a seed and could very possibly be #1 overall.

[GSUhooligan]

Let me throw a monkey wrench in all of this.

If YSU wins out ( possible ), they will be unbeaten in I-AA ranks ( losing only to I-A Pitt) and will definitely get a seed and a home game.

And I'm betting we will bid (21,000 seating and sell-out history). They will fly up the rankings beating 3 straight ranked teams. They SHOULD be close already. ;)

Yeah, Youngstown is really Murdering their competition lately.... :eek: :eek:

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Not even a week removed, it's quite funny to read this thread after the Silukis just pulled out the big win at Western Kentucky.

There are defenitely plenty of situations to be determined. I'm beginnning to think it will be much clearer by, say, Thanksgiving. :D

[inpsite1919]

An excellent point, Redbird Fan 21, and that's why I'm thinking more and more that Coastal Carolina is not going to make the field.

There are more deserving teams than the Chanticleers.
Like who someone from the A-10? :mad:

[89Hen]

The GPI has never been off by two teams much less three... this could be the year though. We will see.
The GPI, the BCS of I-AA... Living on the edge. :p

[Cocky]

The GPI is a fraud. It's a computer ranking developed by human which makes it a human poll. It is just a person's opinion of what some values are worth.

[AppGuy04]

The GPI is a fraud. It's a computer ranking developed by human which makes it a human poll. It is just a person's opinion of what some values are worth.

you can't really make a mathematical formula biased, so its not a fraud, its balanced all the way around, and numbers usually don't lie

[bandl]

The GPI is a fraud. It's a computer ranking developed by human which makes it a human poll. It is just a person's opinion of what some values are worth.

The ONLY (and absolute only) advantage of a computer ranking is it doesn't take emotional value into consideration. Which explains how there is even talk of an undefeated USC team (what, 38 in a row now??) not being able to represent in the I-A title game if UT and VT somehow pass them because their schedules are .0001% more difficult, or some Bull#$*& %age. The BCS is a joke. Sorry for veering away from the I-AA talk....but it ticks me off to no end because it can be so much fun to watch a good I-A game. But then it's ruined in the end because the losing team (even if they end up 10-1) has no chance at a national championship!!!! :bang:

Seriously....sorry for veering away.... :o

[OL FU]

The GPI is a fraud. It's a computer ranking developed by human which makes it a human poll. It is just a person's opinion of what some values are worth.

I will be the AGS (or is that I-AA.org) homer. While far from perfect, the most recent GPI looked much closer to accurate than the polls or the power rankings. Now of course that is one person's biased and emotional opinion so take it for what it worth.

[bandl]

I will be the AGS (or is that I-AA.org) homer. While far from perfect, the most recent GPI looked much closer to accurate than the polls or the power rankings. Now of course that is one person's biased and emotional opinion so take it for what it worth.

Let's just be happy that at the I-AA level the majority of the deserved teams at least get a chance to fight for the national championship!!!! :) Yeah, some get left out....but 16 teams is better than 2!!!!!

[IaaScribe]

Like who someone from the A-10? :mad:

Nope. Someone from the Gateway. Southern Illinois' win last night puts them back in the mix, and Illinois State is strong. And a third team from the SoCon would have a more legit argument than Coastal right now.

Coastal needs a shakeup in the Big Sky and for Cal Poly to falter down the stretch to open up a spot, because there's a good chance that three, if not four, Gateway teams will go.

[Cocky]

you can't really make a mathematical formula biased, so its not a fraud, its balanced all the way around, and numbers usually don't lie
Who puts the values in the formula? How is SOS determined before the season starts? The first poll doesn't have everyone ranked one. There are values put into the computers before the season starts which are created by humans.

[89Hen]

I was actually thinking of creating a formula for determining the all time greatest I-AA programs. It would take into account number of wins, playoff trips, playoff wins, NC's, attendance.... then I started thinking about how I would assign values for those different things and realized that I would probably just end up tinkering around with the values so what I thought were the top programs would end up being at the top of my list.

All computer formulas are based on what the author thinks are the most important factors. Obviously the more factors that are used, the more accurate it should be. My problem with the GPI and Massey is that they use some computer models that are pure **** IMO (Self, Sauceda..). Some were models adopted from other sports and really have some whacky teams in them. So while the GPI and Massey should be more accurate because they use so many different ranking models, they could be even better IMO if they were more selective in the models they used.

I am still a firm believer that some of the models are self-imploding or perpetuating. IOW, in a year when a conference obtains a high rating at the beginning of the year the wins against fellow conference mates are inflated. This happened two years ago with the Big Sky and several of the teams out west that all played BSC teams. It happened last year with the A10. Ken Massey told me two years ago that this is not what happens, and he knows a lot more about computer models and statistics than I'd ever care to know, but I still hold this belief. :twocents:

[TypicalTribe]

After a week to consider and off of last night's game, as of right now, I would go with the following field:

SIU at Furman (#2)
W&M at Hampton

PSU at Texas State (#4)
Cal Poly at Montana

Colgate at UMass (#3)
EIU at YSU

GSU at UNH (#1)
WKU at ASU

Obviously, this will change after the weekend, but it's my pick as of now.

[skinny_uncle]

Who puts the values in the formula? How is SOS determined before the season starts? The first poll doesn't have everyone ranked one. There are values put into the computers before the season starts which are created by humans.
Garbage in, garbage out to quote a geek buddy of mine.

[Lehigh Lover]

Let's get this clear gentlemen. A 7-4 team will not make the playoffs as an at large this year. There will be at least 16 teams with 3 or less losses. Portland State will not make the playoffs, they will not beat Montana IMHO and that gives them four losses. Cal Poly won't make it because with their QB out, I don't think they win out and that gives them at least 3 losses (they didn't make it at 9-2 last year). Even Coastal makes it over a 7-4 team with the history of the committee. Even with the new rule, I still don't think it happens. As far as the PL representative, I have no clue right now. I will not be a homer in spite of what I've been in the past. I have a very uneasy feeling about Saturday's game. I've been to Andy Kerr the last 3 times Lehigh has played there, and there is an aura about that place. Everything works against the visiting team, from the weather, to the field conditions, to the referees, and most importantly, Colgate is always up for each and every home game. I believe that whoever wins this game will get the autobid in the PL. Lafayette IMO will beat Holy Cross (overrated) and both Colgate and Lehigh will beat Lafayette (LU doesn't lose much at home to LC, at least in recent years). This game will be a classic which will be decided late in the fourth quarter. But one thing's for sure, the Curse of Andy Kerr will be in the air.

[WMTribe90]

I don't have a field to share, but I do have a few thoughts...

If Hampton wins out they will have a home game, but will not be ranked.
If WM finishes 8-3, they will play at Hampton in the first round.
The PL will likely only get one team.
Cal Poly will lose at least one more game and miss the playoffs at 8-3 (9-2 would have been a lock)
CCU is out unless they can win convincingly against VMI (too many close losses and JMU and SCS wins losing luster). Even with a big win tomorrow their on the bubble IMO. GPI really huirts them.
If UNH beats UMass there's a chance the A10 gets only two teams (UNH and A10 South "Champ"). UMass would still have games against UD, Army and Hofstra.
No 7-4 teams, PSU would be the only possible exception with two IA losses, but a real long shot IMO.

[lugo02]

Poor choice of words there Cocky.

FRAUD:
A deception deliberately practiced in order to secure unfair or unlawful gain.
A piece of trickery; a trick.
One that defrauds; a cheat.
One who assumes a false pose; an impostor.

1. The GPI is not a fraud.
2. The GPI is not a computer ranking.
3. The GPI is not a human poll.
4. The GPI is not a person's opinion.
5. The GPI is an index made up of computer rankings and human polls.
6. The GPI includes computer rankings selected every year based on performance.
7. The GPI's advisor is Dr. Kenneth Massey.
8. The GPI's purpose is to give the I-AA selection committee an accurate as possible ranking of teams for at-large playoff selection.
9. The GPI has never been more than one team off from what the I-AA selection committee has chosen.
Do the I-AA Committee actually take the GPI into consideration?

[yosefcity]

Bracket Side 1

Coastal Carolina
#1 UNH (A10)

UMASS
Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley)

GSU
#4 Montana (Big Sky)

Lafayette (Patriot)
SIU (Gateway)

Bracket Side 2

Richmond
#3 App State (SoCon)

YSU
Furman

WKU
Texas State

Lehigh
#2 Hampton (MEAC)

[barechestcat]

Question for Ralph (and anyone who wants to share their thoughts):
I see you have mentioned that the selection committee has never been more then one off from the GPI. So, I'm wondering if the GPI comes in with the Big Sky Conf. as the #1 ranked conference at the end of the year, can it be justified for less then three teams to go from this conference regardless of 8-3 or 7-4 record? Would it be justified for Gateway or A-10 to get in more teams in light of the possible lower ranking?
Also, I've maintained this year that I think there could be some 7-4 teams that make it in above an 8-3 team due to strength of schedule consideration.

I know you've posted the committee's selection criteria previously. I just thought I'd get your informed opinion.