Playoff Chances

[JALMOND]

It seems everyone wants some idea as to who is in the playoffs and who is not. With all the parity going around, it might be a little premature as to who is in and who is not, even at this late date. That said, it might be worthwhile to find out why we think our team is still alive, what they need to do and what needs to happen for them to get in the playoffs.

That said, my team, Portland State still has to play at Montana and at Idaho State before finishing up at home against Weber. I think we need to win at least two of those to get in the playoffs. We would then have the necessary seven wins for consideration, we would have only 2 I-AA losses playing the third toughest schedule in I-AA and playing in one of the top two strongest conferences in the country. If we get only one win, we are out. I really don't care if we host a playoff game or not, but I do think whoever wins the Big Sky should host at least a first round game. I think we still control our own fate.

How about the rest? What needs to happen for you to make it?

[AppGuy04]

Well, for us, we need 1 of 2 things to happen.

1. If Georgia Southern beats Furman and we win out, then we win the SoCon and get the automatic bid.

2. If we win out, I still think we are in no matter what. Excluding the LSU game ofcourse

[VictorG]

The Griz need to win at least 3 of the remaining 4 games. Simple math there! Would be awfully sweet to win out which "should" give us a top 4 seed considering the rate of which the top teams are losing these days. Just like last year for the Griz, the offense is starting to get things going the second half of the season.

[JMU Duke Dog]

JMU needs to win out and rely on poor performances for the remainder of the season by Delaware, Richmond, and William & Mary. The possibility for the playoffs for the Dukes is slim and is out of our hands now.

[colgate13]

Colgate needs to win out. No problem, right? :D

[ASU Kep]

Well, for us, we need 1 of 2 things to happen.

1. If Georgia Southern beats Furman and we win out, then we win the SoCon and get the automatic bid.

2. If we win out, I still think we are in no matter what. Excluding the LSU game ofcourse

Yup, if we win out (besides LSU) we'll make it in either case with quality wins over Eastern Kentucky, a romp of CCU, GSU, Citadel, Wofford, etc. Coming out of the SOCON and with our only I-AA loss being to a top ten team on the last play, theres a higher probability of Savannah State making the playoffs then us not. With that being said, a SOCON crown would be oh so sweet. :)

[beerkat]

well SHSU has no chance for an at-large bid at 2-4

so with a 1-2 conference record we obviously need to win out in conference to put us at 4-2

we need NwSt. to lose two more conference games

we need Nichols State to lose two more conference games

we need Texas State to lose one game before they play us last week of the year, and then we would beat them and hold the tiebreaker over them

Or we need NwSt., Nichols St. to lose one and Texas State to lose one before we beat them, creating a 4 way tie for the conference at 4-2 and hope we could BS our way in on some tiebreaker

I think the chances are better for pigs to fly but hey its the Southland conference and anything can happen on any given saturday

Texas State at Nichols State, home vs. McNeese St, at SFA, home vs. SHSU
Nichols State at home vs Texas State, at Northwestern State, at SeLa. McNeese St. at home
NwSt. Nichols at home, at McNeese St, SFA at home

[VictorG]

Never say never!

Good luck with that BeerKat. It'd be nice to see you in Missoula again!

[beerkat]

at this point I would gladly take a trip to Missoula if it meant we were in the playoffs

I could see one of those teams that we need to stumble actually stumbling, but all 3 of them is probably asking too much

[skinny_uncle]

SIU has to win at least 3 of their last 4 to make it. They have 3 conference games left. If they win them all, they would get the autobid. But then you are talking about WKU on the road, Youngstown and UNI at the Dome. Pretty tough road.

[lugo02]

All Lehigh needs to do it just Win and ignore all the other matchups in the League

[OL FU]

Furman -
If we lose one more we are still in at 9-2. If we lose two, we may still make it but probably only if either GSU or ASU lose a game (not counting the Bengal Tigers). Another loss would put GSU at 7-4 (no playoffs) and ASU at 7-4 with two I-A losses (with their current ranking they would probably get in the playoffs) If all three teams are 8-3, ASU gets in with the auto bid and then the question is does the SoCon get three teams in the playoffs. It could happen, but I don't think it is that likely. And my guess is that would leave Furman out due to losing 2 of the last 3 games.

[Cocky]

We have to win out and win a coin toss (unless EKU loses another conference game).

[GannonFan]

Mathematically, UD just needs to win out and they'll be in the playoffs. Back on the planet called reality, UD has no chance. But we'll enjoy this last week of respite until reality comes crashing in. :)

[Black and Gold Express]

We have to win out and win a coin toss (unless EKU loses another conference game).

Would not EKU's win over you put them in the automatic bid already? Why would there even be a coin toss? :confused:

[Eaglegus2]

Furman -
If we lose one more we are still in at 9-2. If we lose two, we may still make it but probably only if either GSU or ASU lose a game (not counting the Bengal Tigers). Another loss would put GSU at 7-4 (no playoffs) and ASU at 7-4 with two I-A losses (with their current ranking they would probably get in the playoffs) If all three teams are 8-3, ASU gets in with the auto bid and then the question is does the SoCon get three teams in the playoffs. It could happen, but I don't think it is that likely. And my guess is that would leave Furman out due to losing 2 of the last 3 games.

This is one time I do not agree. Furman will get in with an 8 - 3 even if they lose 2 of 3 remaining games. The SoCon is stronger this year and should get 3 Teams in the playoffs. The selection of 3 or more teams from one conference has been made in the past. The SoCon is no different this year than the other conferences in the past (A-10).

[Cocky]

Would not EKU's win over you put them in the automatic bid already? Why would there even be a coin toss? :confused:

EIU beat EKU and is now undefeated in the OVC. If we beat EIU in the last game of the regular season it would be a three way tie. This is assuming EKU and JSU win out and EIU wins until the final game.

[Black and Gold Express]

This is one time I do not agree. Furman will get in with an 8 - 3 even if they lose 2 of 3 remaining games. The SoCon is stronger this year and should get 3 Teams in the playoffs. The selection of 3 or more teams from one conference has been made in the past. The SoCon is no different this year than the other conferences in the past (A-10).

Here's where I believe you are wrong in that assumption.

Coastal Carolina and Cal Poly.

Should both teams win out, it will be really hard to envision the commitee not giving both schools invites. Even with CCU's weak SOS.

But assuming they do, that leaves six spots left for 8 conferences. We already can assume two conferences are one bid leagues (Patriot and MEAC). That leaves 1 spot each for the others. Who else is a one bid league? Maybe the Southland. Maybe. I would expect the other six to be spread out evenly between the conferences, and if history is an indicator, the A-10 is more likely to get that third bid first.

Regardless, barring a slew of upsets, I find it hard to see the commitee taking any team from any conference that has three conference losses, with two coming late in the year, and an average at best OOC schedule.

Furman has one game to slip up in, but that's it if they want to be in charge of their own fates.

[Black and Gold Express]

EIU beat EKU and is now undefeated in the OVC. If we beat EIU in the last game of the regular season it would be a three way tie. This is assuming EKU and JSU win out and EIU wins until the final game.

Ah, I wasn't aware of the EIU win (sorry, got kinda tunnel visioned this weekend with ASU, Texas, Redskins, and the White Sox). So it would be a three way tie, thus the flip. Gotcha.

[Eaglegus2]

Here's where I believe you are wrong in that assumption.

Coastal Carolina and Cal Poly.

Should both teams win out, it will be really hard to envision the commitee not giving both schools invites. Even with CCU's weak SOS.

But assuming they do, that leaves six spots left for 8 conferences. We already can assume two conferences are one bid leagues (Patriot and MEAC). That leaves 1 spot each for the others. Who else is a one bid league? Maybe the Southland. Maybe. I would expect the other six to be spread out evenly between the conferences, and if history is an indicator, the A-10 is more likely to get that third bid first.

Regardless, barring a slew of upsets, I find it hard to see the commitee taking any team from any conference that has three conference losses, with two coming late in the year, and an average at best OOC schedule.

Furman has one game to slip up in, but that's it if they want to be in charge of their own fates.


B&GE.......this is where we disagree. After Coastal's showing with Liberty last week, Coastal's weak schedule will have them on the outside looking in.

Caly-Poly will get a bid this year unless they self destruct in the final weeks. I do expect the A-10 to get 3 invites.........unless W&M goes on a losing streak. Then, the only representatives will be New Hampshire & UMass.

[Black and Gold Express]

B&GE.......this is where we disagree. After Coastal's showing with Liberty last week, Coastal's weak schedule will have them on the outside looking in.

Caly-Poly will get a bid this year unless they self destruct in the final weeks. I do expect the A-10 to get 3 invites.........unless W&M goes on a losing streak. Then, the only representatives will be New Hampshire & UMass.

While I agree with you in principle on Coastal, I do not believe the commitee will agree with you. At 10-1, with their only loss coming to ASU in Boone, they'll keep coming back to the Chants, especially if they are being compared to 8-3 teams for spots. I think of Coastal and Cal Poly as the poster children for the non-autobid conferences. I get the feeling the comittee is looking for reasons to get them in this year, not keep them out.

Again, if Coastal slips up even once, they are gone. 10-1 with no schedule is one thing. 9-2 is by far another. 10-1 gets them in. They'll get in with a low "seed", and most assuredly go on the road (my guess would be either back to Boone or to Greenville should ASU or Furman be in), but they'll be in there at 10-1.

Cal Poly clearly has more leeway, but I just read where they have a nightmare schedule remaining, and may have lost their quarterback? This changes everything for them, and I put them in the same fate as Furman. 9-2 gets them in, and they will have earned it for sure. 8-3, with two late losses, and it will be hard for them to distinguish themselves effectively to the commitee, and I think then they lose their spot to a third team from a power conference.

[OL FU]

B&GE.......this is where we disagree. After Coastal's showing with Liberty last week, Coastal's weak schedule will have them on the outside looking in.

Caly-Poly will get a bid this year unless they self destruct in the final weeks. I do expect the A-10 to get 3 invites.........unless W&M goes on a losing streak. Then, the only representatives will be New Hampshire & UMass.

Yes and I have to clarify,I assumed that Coastal and Cal Poly would be in leaving only 6 at large spots. If one of the is out, then I think FU would more than likely be in at 8-3. The other way FU gets in at 8-3 is if GSU beats FU but slips up in another game.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Personally, I think a 10-1 Coastal team makes the playoffs over a borderline 8-3 team from a power conference. They are 2-1 against teams from playoff conferences - you can't take that away from them. Furthermore, knowing they had a light conference schedule, they packed a some tough OOCs in there, including the defensing national champs. It's hard to see what more they could have done to their schedule to make it more competitive.

Strangely, though, CCU's prospects have been tied to beating JMU, who is proving to not be as dominating a team as everyone thought. It's possible that JMU and SCSU, their two "quality wins", will be out of the Top 25 by season's end, further diminishing their schedule.

It bears watching. The VMI game should be the true final test, and it's hard to see Coastal losing to Savannah St., D-II Mansfield or Chuck South. I agree that a loss to any of these teams will spell "no playoffs".

[LBPop]

Colgate needs to win out. No problem, right? :D


All Lehigh needs to do it just Win and ignore all the other matchups in the League


On behalf of the other Georgetown fans on this board, let me now thank the schedule makers for making the Hoya games with Lehigh and Colgate extremely important to both schools. It would have been extremely tough for the Hoyas under any circumstances, but they did not need this.

Of course, I could take the contrary point of view and look forward to the Hoyas using that offense they discovered in the 4th quarter on Saturday and really ruining somebody's playoff chances on A(ny) Given Saturday in November. Yep, I think I like that idea a little better. :rolleyes:

[Lehigh Football Nation]

BTW, don't count Lehigh out as an at-large bid if they win out in the Patriot, especially if Delaware makes a late A-10 run and goes 8-3 or 7-4. Lafayette and Holy Cross at 8-3 don't make as strong a case for inclusion as an at-large, but if Richmond wins the A-10, that Lafayette win in September looks better and better. For Lafayette, their loss two weeks ago to Harvard could be a killer.

If there's a 3-way tie for the PL title, a strange rule comes into play where the SIDs of Patriot League schools would vote on the I-AA playoff representative. With Lehigh being nationally-ranked, you would think that they would have the inside track for that, and that Lafayette and HC would probably not get an at-large unless the A-10 explodes in the last four weeks (which can't be discounted - it's been such a crazy year that it's very hard to predict what will happen).

The Patriot race is quite interesting right now too. Lehigh, Lafayette, Colgate, and Holy Cross all have legitimate shots at the title. It's not at all clear who will take this thing at this point, but the fact that Lehigh could win out and not win the PL title is a possibility that could land the PL with two bids again. Who would you take, a 9-2 SC St. team or a 9-2 Lehigh team?

The more I look at this, the more I see the power conferences beating each other up, possibly opening up more spots for CCU, Lehigh, and maybe even SC St. Possibilites include:

* Furman running the table and WCU keeping the jug = 1 SoCon bid (Furman)
* Texas St. running the table = 1 Southland bid (Texas St.)
* Montana wins out and Montana St. beats Eastern Washington = 1 Big Sky bid (Montana)

There could be as many as four at-larges open this year if all of the above three things happen (I'm assuming 3 Gateway and 3 A-10 teams are in, too, which is no sure thing.) If CCU is really on the bubble anyway (even at 10-1, which I don't think they would be) Lehigh would be the team that makes it over them.

[Black and Gold Express]

BTW, don't count Lehigh out as an at-large bid if they win out in the Patriot [1]

If there's a 3-way tie for the PL title, a strange rule comes into play where the SIDs of Patriot League schools would vote on the I-AA playoff representative. [2]

Who would you take, a 9-2 SC St. team or a 9-2 Lehigh team? [3]

The more I look at this, the more I see the power conferences beating each other up, possibly opening up more spots for CCU, Lehigh, and maybe even SC St. Possibilites include:

* Furman running the table and WCU keeping the jug = 1 SoCon bid (Furman) [4]
* Texas St. running the table = 1 Southland bid (Texas St.) [5]
* Montana wins out and Montana St. beats Eastern Washington = 1 Big Sky bid (Montana) [6]

There could be as many as four at-larges open this year if all of the above three things happen (I'm assuming 3 Gateway and 3 A-10 teams are in, too, which is no sure thing.) If CCU is really on the bubble anyway (even at 10-1, which I don't think they would be) Lehigh would be the team that makes it over them. [7]

[1] - I am counting them out, for all intents and purposes. Since when was the PL good enough this year to warrant two teams?

[2] - I amend #1. This is the only way Lehigh gets in.

[3] - Is "neither" a possibility? Both have pretty crappy resumes.

[4] - If you think WCU is going to be the one to break the ASU home win streak... you need your head examined. ;)

[5] - I had wondered if the SLC was going to be one bid or more. So there's the GFC's third team spot...

[6] - Feasible for sure. Still I would put an 8-3 GSU team in over Lehigh in this spot if they were there. Exactly what quality wins does Lehigh have? GSU would have at least one over Furman. Two if you consider SDSU a quality win on the road. If Furman beats GSU, the Eagles are out though.

[7] - 10-1 CCU is in, lock stock and barrel. Win ugly or not, at least they are winning. Lehigh gets in at 8-3 or better over a 9-2 CCU, but not 10-1.

[SoCon48]

Personally, I think a 10-1 Coastal team makes the playoffs over a borderline 8-3 team from a power conference. They are 2-1 against teams from playoff conferences - you can't take that away from them. Furthermore, knowing they had a light conference schedule, they packed a some tough OOCs in there, including the defensing national champs. It's hard to see what more they could have done to their schedule to make it more competitive.

Strangely, though, CCU's prospects have been tied to beating JMU, who is proving to not be as dominating a team as everyone thought. It's possible that JMU and SCSU, their two "quality wins", will be out of the Top 25 by season's end, further diminishing their schedule.

It bears watching. The VMI game should be the true final test, and it's hard to see Coastal losing to Savannah St., D-II Mansfield or Chuck South. I agree that a loss to any of these teams will spell "no playoffs".

I dunno. 2-1 vs teams from play-off conferences? Elon won't count much. Close win over the worst team in the SoCon and you know what the A-10 says about the bottom half of the SoCon? :rolleyes:

[LUHawker]

I get the feeling the comittee is looking for reasons to get them in this year, not keep them out.



BGE,

I've appreciated your posts in this thread here, but come on, what are you, the official "I'm feeling the committee" guy this year? How the heck do you know what the committee is thinking or "feeling" unless you are part of that committee; you aren't, are you? If you are, great, let us all in on the scoop.